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(World Series of Poker)   Is Poker a Game of Luck or Skill? Mark Newhouse makes the November 9 for the second consecutive year, along with a man whose extensive World Championship experience has all been in... foosball   (wsop.com) divider line 40
    More: Unlikely  
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540 clicks; posted to Sports » on 15 Jul 2014 at 12:25 PM (50 weeks ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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View Voting Results: Smartest and Funniest
 
2014-07-15 09:22:26 AM  
media.tumblr.com
 
2014-07-15 09:39:34 AM  
"How do you think the same guys make the final table every year? What, are they the luckiest guys in Vegas?!"

- Mikey
 
2014-07-15 09:56:56 AM  
makes the November 9 what?
 
2014-07-15 10:20:19 AM  
Luck. Texas Hold 'em is not real poker. With all the up cards, it's barely as sophisticated as BlackJack, which is all luck.

Real poker is a game of skill. They don't call it 5-card Stud for nothing.
 
2014-07-15 10:25:22 AM  

MrBallou: Luck. Texas Hold 'em is not real poker. With all the up cards, it's barely as sophisticated as BlackJack, which is all luck.

Real poker is a game of skill. They don't call it 5-card Stud for nothing.


2/10
 
2014-07-15 10:37:55 AM  

Rev.K: MrBallou: Luck. Texas Hold 'em is not real poker. With all the up cards, it's barely as sophisticated as BlackJack, which is all luck.

Real poker is a game of skill. They don't call it 5-card Stud for nothing.

2/10


I'm sincere. I'd rather play the version where you stick one card to your forehead and 2, 4, 10, and one-eyes Jacks are wild. At least that one's good for laughs.

Or strip poker, because when everybody loses, everybody wins.
 
2014-07-15 11:08:20 AM  

MrBallou: I'm sincere. I'd rather play the version where you stick one card to your forehead and 2, 4, 10, and one-eyes Jacks are wild. At least that one's good for laughs.

Or strip poker, because when everybody loses, everybody wins.


I'm not saying that there isn't a skill gap between games. Omaha is different from hold em, stud is different from, well, almost everything.

But they all have that luck element.
 
2014-07-15 11:23:35 AM  

MrBallou: I'm sincere.


Well, then you're silly. How do communal cards increase the luck factor at all? All it does is affect the available information.

Second of all, any form of stud poker has far more up cards than hold'em. They just aren't communal. In a five person five card stud game, if everyone stays in, you see a total of fifteen cards in the deck. In hold'em you only see five.
 
2014-07-15 11:24:39 AM  

nmrsnr: you see a total of fifteen cards in the deck. In hold'em you only see five.


Oh, not including your two hole cards. At then end of the hand you can know the exact position of 1/3 of the entire deck.
 
2014-07-15 11:47:19 AM  

nmrsnr: MrBallou: I'm sincere.

Well, then you're silly. How do communal cards increase the luck factor at all? All it does is affect the available information.


That's what turns it into blackjack. It comes down to one or two cards. With other forms of poker, more unknown cards are involved, therefore, more skill in estimating odds is required.

Not that I don't enjoy lots of other variations on poker, I just don't get why Texas Hold 'em became the standard for "World Series of Poker" when there are many far better options.
 
2014-07-15 11:52:45 AM  

MrBallou: more unknown cards are involved, therefore, more skill in estimating odds is required.


I just showed you how that is untrue for any form of stud poker. Why the hate on hold'em?
 
2014-07-15 12:01:34 PM  

MrBallou: Not that I don't enjoy lots of other variations on poker, I just don't get why Texas Hold 'em became the standard for "World Series of Poker" when there are many far better options.



Probably because Hold Em is the most accessible game.

I literally learned Hold Em by watching the 2003 World Series of Poker. Just the basics I mean, not the ins and outs.

Hold em is about the only game I can think of where this is possible. Granted, not everyone is going to sit down and watch 3 hours of WSOP coverage like I did, but I found it interesting enough to stay with it and try to figure out what was happening.

Omaha? No way. That would take way longer. And forget it altogether if they're playing hi-lo.

5 or 7 card stud? Maybe, but the number of up cards might make it confusing and the odds calculator on TV wouldn't do much to make it easier.

Chinese poker, Badugi, Cincinnati? No f*cking way.
 
2014-07-15 12:21:09 PM  
whynotboth.jpg
 
2014-07-15 12:21:51 PM  

nmrsnr: MrBallou: more unknown cards are involved, therefore, more skill in estimating odds is required.

I just showed you how that is untrue for any form of stud poker. Why the hate on hold'em?


Maybe it's subsconsious hate for Texas (lived in Houston for 3 years - nuff said) or maybe it's that irritating " 'em" when it's really pronounced "um".

Should I seek help?
 
2014-07-15 12:29:36 PM  
My friend is a professional poker player and lives a comfortable life.  I am going to say it is probably a little bit of both.
 
2014-07-15 12:34:33 PM  
sp2.yimg.com
 
2014-07-15 12:35:24 PM  
The California Supreme Court says it's a game of skill.

This tells me for certain that it is a game of luck.
 
2014-07-15 01:08:10 PM  

Rev.K: Omaha? No way. That would take way longer. And forget it altogether if they're playing hi-lo.


Back when I played online all the time I accidentally joined an Omaha Hi-Lo tournament. I flat out told the table in chat. "I have no clue what I'm doing, never played Omaha or Hi-Lo." I quickly opened a browser with rules/tips and learned on the fly. I placed one spot out of the money, like 6th of 27 or something. (3 table tourney) Felt like I was learning a new language but losing money  er, fake money, instead of time. I think I remember once taking both the high and low pot with the same hand, that was cool.

I still have no clue how that game actually works or how I should bet, etc. I realize you are betting mostly on draws / really high hands and EVERYONE has great hands at the end but whoa I was and am still really lost on Omaha. And that was after actively playing in a 3 hour tournament.
 
2014-07-15 01:11:14 PM  

SharkaPult: Rev.K: Omaha? No way. That would take way longer. And forget it altogether if they're playing hi-lo.

Back when I played online all the time I accidentally joined an Omaha Hi-Lo tournament. I flat out told the table in chat. "I have no clue what I'm doing, never played Omaha or Hi-Lo." I quickly opened a browser with rules/tips and learned on the fly. I placed one spot out of the money, like 6th of 27 or something. (3 table tourney) Felt like I was learning a new language but losing money  er, fake money, instead of time. I think I remember once taking both the high and low pot with the same hand, that was cool.

I still have no clue how that game actually works or how I should bet, etc. I realize you are betting mostly on draws / really high hands and EVERYONE has great hands at the end but whoa I was and am still really lost on Omaha. And that was after actively playing in a 3 hour tournament.


And I freely admit my placement was probably 95% luck and 5% doing the opposite of what anyone expected because I was literally ignorant of the game. I attribute 0% of my progress in that single data point to any skill on my part. Just to kill off the "humble-brag".
 
2014-07-15 01:18:26 PM  
If you know what you're doing, it's 90% skill, 10% luck.
 
2014-07-15 01:19:09 PM  

SharkaPult: Back when I played online all the time I accidentally joined an Omaha Hi-Lo tournament.


Fark that game. High and low and everyplace in between. I've been in home games where they bust that out for close to 20 years, and I have never once said "Oh, boy! Omaha!"

CSB: A buddy of mine finished in 30-somethingth place, for a prize of $230k. Meanwhile, I lost $400 at a casino over the weekend.

// also, Dan Harrington once finished 3rd two years running ('03 and '04 IIRC)
 
2014-07-15 01:19:48 PM  

SharkaPult: I still have no clue how that game actually works or how I should bet, etc. I realize you are betting mostly on draws / really high hands and EVERYONE has great hands at the end but whoa I was and am still really lost on Omaha. And that was after actively playing in a 3 hour tournament.


I didn't understand the appeal of Omaha for a long time, but now I do.

Omaha is an action game. Very few (if any) hands are going to end pre-flop, and you're going to see most hands through to the turn or river, usually with multiple players involved. From a cash game perspective, it can be very juicy because your average pot size tends to be bigger than Hold Em tables at a similar level (i.e. 1/2). When I decided to take the leap into Omaha, I started online at very low stakes ($0.10/$0.25) and even at that level, I turned $25 into $300 in only two sessions. An Omaha heater can be extremely profitable. However, for that upside, there's also the equal and opposite downside. A cold deck in Omaha can obliterate you in a hurry.

Hi-lo is Omaha action on steroids. With a high and low hand awarded, there's even more draws out there and even more reason for players stick around.

I wish more of my friends liked Omaha. Our poker games are generally tournaments, but occasionally we play cash games. But even those times when it's cash, it's always strictly hold em.
 
2014-07-15 01:25:39 PM  
If Texas Hold 'Em is, say 75% skill and 25% luck (which seems reasonable), then Omaha, and especially Omaha Hi-Lo, is at least 95% skill and just 5% luck.  Omaha is hard enough to master; you throw in the hi-lo split and it takes forever to get a good grasp of strategy.

I remember a few years ago that Poker After Dark had a week's worth of episodes dedicated to Omaha hi-lo, which was fascinating in the sense of understanding how strategic it is. You're almost never going to stay in past the flop if your only real hand is low.
 
2014-07-15 01:27:06 PM  

Rev.K: Hi-lo is Omaha action on steroids.



Everyone wants to play pot limit, that's the problem.  It ends up breaking home games in short order.  It's fun at a reasonable limit, 3 raises max.
 
2014-07-15 01:30:01 PM  
It's pure luck. Some people are just really, really lucky.
 
2014-07-15 01:32:07 PM  

MrBallou: nmrsnr: MrBallou: I'm sincere.

Well, then you're silly. How do communal cards increase the luck factor at all? All it does is affect the available information.

That's what turns it into blackjack. It comes down to one or two cards. With other forms of poker, more unknown cards are involved, therefore, more skill in estimating odds is required.


Whoa, whoa, whoa hold on there slim, I would think that because you have two whole cards the possibilities and strategies involved are far more reaching than playing five or seven card stud.  Five or seven card stud would mean a more limited deck than Hold 'Em.


Not that I don't enjoy lots of other variations on poker, I just don't get why Texas Hold 'em became the standard for "World Series of Poker" when there are many far better options.

And they play every version of it at the WSOP. It's just that the ME only plays Texas Hold 'em.
 
2014-07-15 01:41:04 PM  
The cards are luck. Knowing what to do with them and causing everyone else to not know what to do with theirs, that's skill. You can get deep into the tournament just being a lucky schmuck pulling the cards of your life, but you're more likely to go deep when you know how to win a pot with a losing hand.
 
2014-07-15 01:48:29 PM  
In the short term, it's some skill and a big amount of luck

In the long term, it's almost all skill.
 
2014-07-15 01:56:58 PM  

Gosling: The cards are luck. Knowing what to do with them and causing everyone else to not know what to do with theirs, that's skill. You can get deep into the tournament just being a lucky schmuck pulling the cards of your life, but you're more likely to go deep when you know how to win a pot with a losing hand.


Well, yeah. You've got to know when to hold 'em; know when to fold 'em. Know when to walk away; know when to run. You never count your money when you're sittin' at the table. There'll be time enough for countin' when the dealin's done.
 
2014-07-15 01:59:41 PM  

nmrsnr: MrBallou: more unknown cards are involved, therefore, more skill in estimating odds is required.

I just showed you how that is untrue for any form of stud poker. Why the hate on hold'em?


what do odds have to do with poker?

jeez, if you want odds, go play a luck game.

hold 'em is the best form of poker.  the community of cards limits the possibilities.  that means, you can get a read on what your opponent is going for.  the demand for skill increases.

odds are the most basic part of the game.  it is not complicated.  you beat the person, not the cards.
 
2014-07-15 02:03:13 PM  

pute kisses like a man: nmrsnr: MrBallou: more unknown cards are involved, therefore, more skill in estimating odds is required.

I just showed you how that is untrue for any form of stud poker. Why the hate on hold'em?

what do odds have to do with poker?

jeez, if you want odds, go play a luck game.

hold 'em is the best form of poker.  the community of cards limits the possibilities.  that means, you can get a read on what your opponent is going for.  the demand for skill increases.

odds are the most basic part of the game.  it is not complicated.  you beat the person, not the cards.


I'll admit it's amazing when someone like Ivey or Negranu will fold a hand and they ask the guy/gal if they had a certain hand and they nail it.
 
2014-07-15 02:03:53 PM  
It's a real all star field.  I have more WSOP winnings than 6 of these guys had before this event started.  More than all 6 combined, in fact.

/of course, they have all gone miles by me now
//bastards.....
 
2014-07-15 02:07:00 PM  

Dr Dreidel: also, Dan Harrington once finished 3rd two years running ('03 and '04 IIRC)


Beating out a combined 3,400 people, give or take a hundred? (Keep in mind, 2003 was the year Moneymaker won) Newhouse got past that many people and then some from his starting flights the last 2 years alone. It's a hell of a feat he's pulled off. Now if he can only avoid going out in 9th this year (which he should be able to do).

MrBallou: Not that I don't enjoy lots of other variations on poker, I just don't get why Texas Hold 'em became the standard for "World Series of Poker" when there are many far better options.


1) I'm guessing that's what many of the Texas gamblers played when the WSOP was founded.

2) It's easier for TV to follow. I remember when ESPN tried showing the other games and it just didn't work. They made a sincere effort, too.

3) I would suggest that Hold'em is tougher because it's easier to bluff, easier to play back at people and easier to make opponents question where they are in the hand. In 7 Card Stud, you almost always know where you stand based on the opponent's cards (especially if you can remember what's been folded). Plus, look below...

Gosling: The cards are luck. Knowing what to do with them and causing everyone else to not know what to do with theirs, that's skill. You can get deep into the tournament just being a lucky schmuck pulling the cards of your life, but you're more likely to go deep when you know how to win a pot with a losing hand.


Yeah, there's ways to win by being a lucky bastard. The year after Jamie Gold luckboxed his way to the WSOP title, I was in Vegas and finished 2nd in a small daily tournament at the Monte Carlo. The guy who won was getting so lucky that the dealer was joking he was Jamie Gold.

Hell, you want to talk luck? Look at this from a few weeks ago. Most bizarre hand I'll ever see.

Compare that to a few weeks earlier when the European Poker Tour was in Italy: Short stack entering the final makes the right plays, gets a couple of double ups, gets a bit of luck to take the chip lead and becomes the 1st 2-time EPT champ.
 
2014-07-15 02:11:11 PM  

Rwa2play: pute kisses like a man: nmrsnr: MrBallou: more unknown cards are involved, therefore, more skill in estimating odds is required.

I just showed you how that is untrue for any form of stud poker. Why the hate on hold'em?

what do odds have to do with poker?

jeez, if you want odds, go play a luck game.

hold 'em is the best form of poker.  the community of cards limits the possibilities.  that means, you can get a read on what your opponent is going for.  the demand for skill increases.

odds are the most basic part of the game.  it is not complicated.  you beat the person, not the cards.

I'll admit it's amazing when someone like Ivey or Negranu will fold a hand and they ask the guy/gal if they had a certain hand and they nail it.


when i'm playing people worse than me, i often know their precise cards, usually can guess what they're shooting for, and rarely if ever don't know what's going on.  and i'm not all that great.  made money in college, but couldn't hack it against real pros (and, i knew it very quickly.  if you are at a table and you don't know what's going on, then you are the worst person at the table, and you should leave).

i could care less what the cards are.  great hands are farking horrible if your great hand is second best.  all that matters is that your hand is better than their hand.  focusing on percentages is only good for prediction of behavior.  it is not a reliable strategy for playing because behavior will fark up your plan.
 
2014-07-15 02:12:31 PM  

pute kisses like a man: all that matters is that your hand is better than their hand.  focusing on percentages is only good for prediction of behavior.  it is not a reliable strategy for playing because behavior will fark up your plan.


actually, that doesn't even matter.  all that matters is that you get paid for your good hands, and you push people off their shiat hands.  win more than you lose.
 
2014-07-15 02:20:55 PM  
pute kisses like a man:

when i'm playing people worse than me, i often know their precise cards, usually can guess what they're shooting for, and rarely if ever don't know what's going on.  and i'm not all that great.

Exact same here. I sometimes play with my friends, and working out what they have is never exactly the hardest challenge in the world. And I flat out suck.
 
2014-07-15 02:59:43 PM  
It's a game of skill when I win and a game of luck when I lose.
 
2014-07-15 04:44:41 PM  
I busted out the end of day 2
 
2014-07-15 04:59:17 PM  

The Muthaship: Rev.K: Hi-lo is Omaha action on steroids.


Everyone wants to play pot limit, that's the problem.  It ends up breaking home games in short order.  It's fun at a reasonable limit, 3 raises max.


I played a tourney in Vegas that turned out to be limit Omaha hi-lo. Confused the hell out of me, I was expecting no-limit, and that totally broke my game.
PLO is more of a high-end game, I can see it being a problem for home games with casual players.
 
2014-07-16 03:56:49 AM  

MrBallou: Luck. Texas Hold 'em is not real poker. With all the up cards, it's barely as sophisticated as BlackJack, which is all luck.

Real poker is a game of skill. They don't call it 5-card Stud for nothing.


You get 1 down and 4 up in 5 card Stud, right?
 
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