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(AsiaOne)   Everybody mocked you when you put money on a scoreline for Germany vs. Brazil that the bookies didn't even have on the chart, but who's laughing now?   (news.asiaone.com) divider line 41
    More: Spiffy, minister of state, pathological gambling  
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11463 clicks; posted to Main » on 10 Jul 2014 at 11:35 AM (23 weeks ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



41 Comments   (+0 »)
   
View Voting Results: Smartest and Funniest
 
2014-07-10 09:25:58 AM  
In before Gamblers Fallacies.
 
2014-07-10 09:40:51 AM  
There are two types of gamblers, losers and liars.
 
2014-07-10 09:57:45 AM  

EvilEgg: There are two types of gamblers, losers and liars.


3) People with access to a functional time machine
 
2014-07-10 10:29:20 AM  
"Any other score" had odds of 150:1? Sheeeat, I would have bet that. Not $100, but still.

/Realizes the odds of any team scoring more than 5 goals are remote
 
2014-07-10 10:43:02 AM  
Just looked it up. From 1990 to now, inclusive, there have been 5 matches where one team scored more than 5 goals (none where both did.) There have been 446 matches played in that period, obviously not including the 2 this weekend. That's odds of 89:1, so a payout of 150:1 would be a good bet in the long run. Of course, none of those 5 were in the Semis or Finals.
 
2014-07-10 10:52:29 AM  
Whoops, wrong info. In 1990 and 1994 only 52 matches were played, expanding to 64 from 1998 onward. This would make the total 422 matches for even better odds of 84:1.
 
2014-07-10 11:06:28 AM  

show me: Just looked it up. From 1990 to now, inclusive, there have been 5 matches where one team scored more than 5 goals (none where both did.) There have been 446 matches played in that period, obviously not including the 2 this weekend. That's odds of 89:1, so a payout of 150:1 would be a good bet in the long run. Of course, none of those 5 were in the Semis or Finals.


For an expected value of +$69.66 on a $100 bet. If you can accept short term variance you can eventually earn your money back and make a slight profit (on average). Therefore the guy who set up this bet did not do his math correct and will lose money on it over time. Not a good business strategy.

Casinos always win because of that (or rakes).
 
2014-07-10 11:38:19 AM  
BOOM!
 
2014-07-10 11:41:15 AM  
I has the itch...it need scratching.
 
2014-07-10 11:43:46 AM  

Tr0mBoNe: For an expected value of +$69.66 on a $100 bet. If you can accept short term variance you can eventually earn your money back and make a slight profit (on average). Therefore the guy who set up this bet did not do his math correct and will lose money on it over time. Not a good business strategy.

Casinos always win because of that (or rakes)


I'm not a soccer fan, but i would imagine how the game is played has changed considerably in the last 20+ years. You also need to take into account the recent scoring history of the teams you are betting on, if they are offensively oriented teams, defensively, etc.

Basically if you are setting the odds for that kind of bet you aren't making them up by just googling world cup scores for the past 20 years and figuring out a percentage.
 
2014-07-10 11:49:07 AM  

show me: "Any other score" had odds of 150:1? Sheeeat, I would have bet that. Not $100, but still.

/Realizes the odds of any team scoring more than 5 goals are remote


Hell, even a $1 bet would cover your bar tab for the night.  It's all upside.
 
2014-07-10 11:49:51 AM  

show me: "Any other score" had odds of 150:1? Sheeeat, I would have bet that. Not $100, but still.

/Realizes the odds of any team scoring more than 5 goals are remote


Heck I would have dropped $100 on that.  As a degenerated gambler I have quite a few loose betters I call friends.  A buddy that lived in Baltimore dropped a couple hundred dollars during the offseason that the Ravens would win the 2000 Superb Owl.  Worst party guest ever.....

/I think he netted something like $22K
 
2014-07-10 11:52:52 AM  
I assumed it was the Brazilian Goalie who placed the bet.
 
2014-07-10 11:53:31 AM  

EvilEgg: There are two types of gamblers, losers and liars.


...and the best that you can hope for, is to die in your sleep.
 
2014-07-10 11:55:50 AM  

LineNoise: I'm not a soccer fan, but i would imagine how the game is played has changed considerably in the last 20+ years.


You'd be correct, too. They don't allow England fans anywhere near sharp objects, or newspapers.
 
2014-07-10 11:59:47 AM  
I'm sure it was a safe bet. All his other ones lost, no doubt. He got lucky, but he didn't predict shiat.
 
2014-07-10 12:01:27 PM  

Langston: EvilEgg: There are two types of gamblers, losers and liars.

3) People with access to a functional time machine


See on-line poker scams for examples
 
2014-07-10 12:01:51 PM  

BiffSpiffy: I assumed it was the Brazilian Goalie who placed the bet.


Damn, beat me.
 
2014-07-10 12:03:42 PM  

show me: Whoops, wrong info. In 1990 and 1994 only 52 matches were played, expanding to 64 from 1998 onward. This would make the total 422 matches for even better odds of 84:1.


Yeah, but like you said none of those matches were in the semis. I'd hazard a guess they were mostly powerhouses abusing the weak team in their pool in the group stage. The odds of the number 2 team in the world doing this to the number 3 are much more remote.
 
2014-07-10 12:05:30 PM  
Who's raffing now?
 
2014-07-10 12:06:34 PM  
If real, this one is more impressive:

i.imgur.com
 
2014-07-10 12:13:25 PM  

Tr0mBoNe: show me: Just looked it up. From 1990 to now, inclusive, there have been 5 matches where one team scored more than 5 goals (none where both did.) There have been 446 matches played in that period, obviously not including the 2 this weekend. That's odds of 89:1, so a payout of 150:1 would be a good bet in the long run. Of course, none of those 5 were in the Semis or Finals.

For an expected value of +$69.66 on a $100 bet. If you can accept short term variance you can eventually earn your money back and make a slight profit (on average). Therefore the guy who set up this bet did not do his math correct and will lose money on it over time. Not a good business strategy.

Casinos always win because of that (or rakes).


Except that makes some huge and erroneous assumptions. All games are not equal, such a score would probably be much more likely early in the tournament when the top teams are playing the bottom teams (and the payout was likely lower). By the time you get to the semi-finals the expected odds would be much lower.

But it was just some guy throwing some spare cash down on a longshot. He probably put money on a number of other bets as well.
 
2014-07-10 12:14:18 PM  

Best Princess Celestia: BiffSpiffy: I assumed it was the Brazilian Goalie who placed the bet.

Damn, beat me.


threeandahalfthumbs.files.wordpress.com

buttheads.
 
2014-07-10 12:14:36 PM  
Terrific scoreline info!

img.fark.net
 
2014-07-10 12:17:24 PM  
So the scriptwriter for the anti-gambling ad in TFA was betting Brazil would win...
 
2014-07-10 12:18:10 PM  

UNC_Samurai: EvilEgg: There are two types of gamblers, losers and liars.

...and the best that you can hope for, is to die in your sleep.


The marriage thread, it is 4 links over...
 
2014-07-10 12:26:05 PM  
After Nigeria was eliminated from the world cup the Nigerian Captain personally offered to refund all the expenses of fans that travelled to Brazil.

He said he just needs their bank details and pin numbers to complete the transaction.
 
2014-07-10 12:29:00 PM  

Nothing To See Here: After Nigeria was eliminated from the world cup the Nigerian Captain personally offered to refund all the expenses of fans that travelled to Brazil.

He said he just needs their bank details and pin numbers to complete the transaction.


Well played sir.
 
2014-07-10 12:38:09 PM  
Gambling thread.  Now I get to spout off about that...

Here in NJ, we have casinos.  Sometime last century, they bent the rules so we could have casinos.  In Atlantic city.  They are doing so bad nowadays that 2 of them are closing this year.

Recenty, NJ approved online gambling.  So you don't even have to go to the casinos now.  You can play from anywhere.

Everyone knows that the odds are always in the casinos favor.  Always.  When they aren't, for example when people learned how to count cards and actually win an blackjack, they changed the rules to allow constant shuffle machines.  Nice.
So, everyone knows the odds are against them.  People still like to bet.  Fine.  Maybe you'll get lucky.  I understand that.  But the great majority of people lose.  Sometimes in a most collosal manner.  The state enthusiastically supports the casinos in this matter.

Now, here's what I don't get - The economy in this state is shiat.  People barely have enough money to survive and pay their mortgage.  So the state responds by luring people into gambling what money they have by promoting online gambling?!  WTF kind of responsible sense does that make?!

What a bunch of assholes.
 
2014-07-10 12:41:17 PM  
I will be so glad when the World Cup is over. I haven't received good service in a Mexican restaurant since May. Everyone is glued to the TV (of which every self-respecting Mexican restaurant has three).
 
2014-07-10 12:42:11 PM  
Now, here's what I don't get - The economy in this state is shiat.  People barely have enough money to survive and pay their mortgage.  So the state responds by luring people into gambling what money they have by promoting online gambling?!  WTF kind of responsible sense does that make?!
What a bunch of assholes.


It's called a free country, dickhead.
 
2014-07-10 12:43:02 PM  
Who's laughing now? I am, Subby. But that's because I'm drunk off my ass and just saw an elderly man in a bicycle try to ride in, but then fall into, a stream.
 
2014-07-10 12:43:03 PM  

durbnpoisn: Gambling thread.  Now I get to spout off about that...

Here in NJ, we have casinos.  Sometime last century, they bent the rules so we could have casinos.  In Atlantic city.  They are doing so bad nowadays that 2 of them are closing this year.

Recenty, NJ approved online gambling.  So you don't even have to go to the casinos now.  You can play from anywhere.

Everyone knows that the odds are always in the casinos favor.  Always.  When they aren't, for example when people learned how to count cards and actually win an blackjack, they changed the rules to allow constant shuffle machines.  Nice.
So, everyone knows the odds are against them.  People still like to bet.  Fine.  Maybe you'll get lucky.  I understand that.  But the great majority of people lose.  Sometimes in a most collosal manner.  The state enthusiastically supports the casinos in this matter.

Now, here's what I don't get - The economy in this state is shiat.  People barely have enough money to survive and pay their mortgage.  So the state responds by luring people into gambling what money they have by promoting online gambling?!  WTF kind of responsible sense does that make?!

What a bunch of assholes.


Same thing with the lottery. Takes money from poor people. I farking hate the lottery.

Same thing with jail for drugs. Takes productivity from poor people.
 
2014-07-10 01:04:07 PM  

doubled99: Now, here's what I don't get - The economy in this state is shiat.  People barely have enough money to survive and pay their mortgage.  So the state responds by luring people into gambling what money they have by promoting online gambling?!  WTF kind of responsible sense does that make?!
What a bunch of assholes.

It's called a free country, dickhead.


Dickhead?!
Pfft...dpoisn.com

Nice to know that you support the gov't baiting people to take the little money they've got. And you call that freedom.
 
2014-07-10 01:15:21 PM  
I once bet this hot college girl 5 bucks I could give her the greatest orgasm of her life.

Best 5 bucks I ever lost.


/Actualy it was just a 70 year old meth whore who really need 5 dollars.
 
2014-07-10 01:16:07 PM  
Nice to know that you support the gov't baiting people to take the little money they've got. And you call that freedom.

You obviously haven't a clue what the word means.

That evil government! Actually allowing people to do things they want even though it's bad for them!!!

Inhuman bastards! They also are baiting people into buying fattening foods. Won't someone think of the children!!!
 
2014-07-10 01:40:56 PM  

doubled99: Nice to know that you support the gov't baiting people to take the little money they've got. And you call that freedom.

You obviously haven't a clue what the word means.

That evil government! Actually allowing people to do things they want even though it's bad for them!!!

Inhuman bastards! They also are baiting people into buying fattening foods. Won't someone think of the children!!!


Yes.  Obviously we have the freedom to do what we want.  And that includes gambling.  I get that.  And if it were just private industry pushing the whole gambling thing, I would write that off as "capatilsm".  That's the way it is.  But once the gov't gets involved - and they ARE involved - that becomes a real problem.

If you don't see where the problem is with that, there really is no point in discussing it.  We'll just have to disagree.
 
2014-07-10 01:47:53 PM  
i.imgur.com
 
2014-07-10 01:51:26 PM  
People bet real money on girls sports?
 
2014-07-11 07:32:50 AM  
In Germany, a garden center offered 10% discount for every goal their national team made. The lines at the cashier were quite something to behold, with 2-hour waiting times reported.

http://www.westfalen-blatt.de/OWL/Lokales/Kreis-Hoexter/Bad-Driburg- Br akel/1645645-Das-7-1-und-seine-Folgen-im-Kreis-Hoexter-Rabatt-von-zehn -Prozent-pro-Tor-ohne-Beschraenkung-sorgt-fuer-Chaos-Nach-WM-Spiel-Kun den-stuermen-Gartencenter-Ringk
 
2014-07-11 11:00:40 AM  

bern_viking: In Germany, a garden center offered 10% discount for every goal their national team made. The lines at the cashier were quite something to behold, with 2-hour waiting times reported.

http://www.westfalen-blatt.de/OWL/Lokales/Kreis-Hoexter/Bad-Driburg- Br akel/1645645-Das-7-1-und-seine-Folgen-im-Kreis-Hoexter-Rabatt-von-zehn -Prozent-pro-Tor-ohne-Beschraenkung-sorgt-fuer-Chaos-Nach-WM-Spiel-Kun den-stuermen-Gartencenter-Ringk


Oh shiat.  That's gonna be pricey.
 
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