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(FIFA)   The 2014 FIFA World Cup semi-finals begin today with Germany vs the host-nation Brazil at 4 (ET). One team will go on to the final, the other will break the hearts (and hopefully not backs) of millions   (fifa.com ) divider line
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299 clicks; posted to Sports » on 08 Jul 2014 at 3:00 PM (2 years ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2014-07-08 07:49:40 AM  
Brazil vs Germany

Let's first look at their history in the World Cup


Brazil made it to the finals for the first time in 1950, against Uruguay, where they lost. But followed it up with two straight wins in 1958 and 1962, and after a short break, in 1972. They would go on to win in 1994 and 2002 (beating Germany) and have not made the finals since.

Germany (West Germany) saw a win in their first final in 1954, lost to England in 1966, won in 1974 against Netherlands, then came in second two times in a row against Italy and Argentina in 82 and 86 before making it to the final for the 3rd time in a row to win against Argentina in 1990. They haven't made it to the finals since their loss to Brazil in 2002, but despite hosting in 2006, and looking like the stronger team in 2010, they were only able to finish third in those competitions.

How much has home team advantaged mattered?

It's really hard to deny that Brazil has had an advantage at points in this Cup, and certainly the obvious flop in their first match giving them a lifeline in the match against Croatia was likely called because of that advantage. And while I'd like to think the ref called off the Colombian goal because of the advantage - hell, I even jokingly predicted it would happen at half-time -- I think that official was just poor the entire night and should never be on the pitch again. Anyyyway, let's look at how some other home teams have done

1930 - Uruguay (First place)
1934 - Italy (First Place)

1938 - France (Quarter-finals)
1950 - Brazil (Second Place)
1954 - Switzerland (Quarter Finals... in a 7-5 Match after leading 3-0)
1958 - Sweden (Second Place)
1962 - Chile (Third Place)
1966 - England (First Place)
1970 - Mexico (Quarter Finals)
1974 - West Germany - (First Place)
1978 - Argentina (First place)

1982 - Spain (Second Group Stage/This tournament had a strange format)
1986 - Mexico - (Quarter Finals)
1990 - Italy (Third Place)
1994 - USA USA USA (R16)
1998 - France (First Place)
2002 - South Korea/Japan (Semi-finals/R16)
2006 - Germany (Third Place)
2010 - South Africa (Group Stages)
2014 - Brazil (At least Semi Finals)

I think that home advantage definitely exists, but it doesn't guarantee a victory, and you'll have to fight for that.

Alright, alright, let's look at THIS CUP. How'd they get here?

Brazil

Brazil started off with a very controversial win over Croatia 3-1 at the Cup's opening, followed by a nil-nil draw thanks to a great performance from Mexico's keeper, and were able to secure the group win with a 4-1 victory over Cameroon (which was likely fixed to some extent, but I can't imagine they needed Cameroon's help to win that one)

Brazil had to go to penalties against Chile in the R16, and won 3-2, and were able to finish Colombia's run 2-1 after Colombia's first goal was called off. However, this victory didn't come without a price, they lost their captain to a yellow card and their star Neymar had a slight fracture (not to take anything away from how much that sucks) to his vertebrae, taking them both out of at least this match -- with Neymar missing the entire thing if they do continue.


Germany

Germany began by crushing Portugal 4-0, but then showed their flaws with a draw against Ghana secured by Miroslav Klose's supersub goal, before a boring performance (albeit mostly comfortable) against team USA ending in a 1-0 win. Fears rose again with the R16 performance against Algeria, where sweeper-keeper Neuer was forced to come out constantly from his box to stop offensive Algerians, but they were able to win 2-1 in extra time. The chaos calmed with a 1-0 win over France, where Germany's defense looked impenetrable, with Neuer only forced to make one huge save at the very last second, while making it look incredibly easy.

The German Captain Philip Lahm has expressed on many a occasion that he's tired of the team playing for third place, since they have been expected to win the last two, but haven't been able to when the semi-finals hit. So there is hope that the German collapse against Algeria was their collapse, and that they can get things together and get to the finals for the first time since 2002.


My Prediction:

This is Germany's game to lose, and it would have been with or without Neymar. Brazil have looked poor throughout this entire Cup. However, it really depends on which team shows up. If Germany show up and want to play and put up a performance like they did against Portugal? Bye Bye Brazil. If they are shaken, it's gonna be a sad night in Germany once again. This is the time when Germany continues to collapse, I'd love to see them break that pattern again when they are rightfully the team predicted to win the semi-final once more, but we'll have to see. I don't think Brazil will be steam-rolled, Germans shouldn't be comfortable just yet.
 
2014-07-08 08:04:47 AM  
Ladies and gentlemen, this is your World Cup Final.

Too bad they decide on PKs. This would be epic if they enforced a Golden Goal.

I call Germany to win on PKs, unless the refs do something so blantant during the PK phase to give it to the home team.
 
2014-07-08 08:11:17 AM  
When is this crap going to be over?
 
2014-07-08 08:23:26 AM  
i.imgur.com
 
2014-07-08 08:43:41 AM  

dookdookdook: When is this crap going to be over?


Let's use our big boy brains :D semi-finals, usually indicates there are four teams left, and clearly a tournament bracket. So you've got at least 3 games left, the four teams playing for a spot in the final (games one and two), and the final itself.

Lucky for you, the two teams who lose the semi-final match get to play a 3rd place game! Bonus footy! :D

OtherLittleGuy: Ladies and gentlemen, this is your World Cup Final.

Too bad they decide on PKs. This would be epic if they enforced a Golden Goal.

I call Germany to win on PKs, unless the refs do something so blantant during the PK phase to give it to the home team.



I still think the final will be interesting, especially a GER NED final, NED has been slacking, but they'll wake up against GER if they play.

I personally love PKs, even if I have no particular interest in either team, I still get all nervous, it's fantastic!

Cheesehead_Dave: [i.imgur.com image 680x221]


Hahah, that's fantastic
 
2014-07-08 08:51:13 AM  

dookdookdook: When is this crap going to be over?


img.fark.net
 
2014-07-08 08:59:11 AM  

marius2: dookdookdook: When is this crap going to be over?

Let's use our big boy brains :D semi-finals, usually indicates there are four teams left, and clearly a tournament bracket. So you've got at least 3 games left, the four teams playing for a spot in the final (games one and two), and the final itself.


Well, semifinals in tennis means 2 or 3 days.  Semifinals in basketball means a month and a half.
 
2014-07-08 09:07:09 AM  

dookdookdook: Semifinals in basketball means a month and a half.


I'm pretty sure the last 5 minutes of a basketball game means a month and a half
 
2014-07-08 09:17:32 AM  
No matter what, the finals are guaranteed to have two countries that had Nazis in them at one point.

Somehow, and give me time to figure it out, this is Obama's fault
 
2014-07-08 09:22:08 AM  
i.imgur.com
 
2014-07-08 09:28:33 AM  
I have to root for Brazil today. I'm not sure they can pull it off, though.

I've also been getting the best pictures from a friend who is down there. My favorite so far was him with a guy dressed like Teddy Roosevelt.
 
2014-07-08 09:32:08 AM  
Ask yourself one question: Thongs or Lederhosen?
 
2014-07-08 09:32:32 AM  

ginandbacon: I have to root for Brazil today. I'm not sure they can pull it off, though.

I've also been getting the best pictures from a friend who is down there. My favorite so far was him with a guy dressed like Teddy Roosevelt.


Teddy Goalsevelt! I love the pic of him fording the rivers of Brazil to get to the game
 
2014-07-08 09:33:15 AM  

mysticcat: Ask yourself one question: Thongs or Lederhosen?


I do not want to see Fred in a thong.
 
2014-07-08 09:37:50 AM  
That last Brazil match was brutal to watch.

Brazil dug themselves too deep of a whole IMHO.   That said, I will never underestimate having a ref that's afraid of being torn limb from limb.

Brazil by two on an unprecedented barrage of complimentary free kicks.
 
2014-07-08 09:40:58 AM  

brap: Brazil dug themselves too deep of a whole IMHO.   That said, I will never underestimate having a ref that's afraid of being torn limb from limb.



Hell, the Germans might have to be airlifted out if they win. If Brazil doesn't win this whole thing, there's gonna be some major rioting.

/Rioting will probably happen if they win as well
 
2014-07-08 09:42:38 AM  

marius2: ginandbacon: I have to root for Brazil today. I'm not sure they can pull it off, though.

I've also been getting the best pictures from a friend who is down there. My favorite so far was him with a guy dressed like Teddy Roosevelt.

Teddy Goalsevelt! I love the pic of him fording the rivers of Brazil to get to the game


Oh LOL!!!! I need to find that pic--I had no idea he was a thing!
 
2014-07-08 09:46:20 AM  

ginandbacon: marius2: ginandbacon: I have to root for Brazil today. I'm not sure they can pull it off, though.

I've also been getting the best pictures from a friend who is down there. My favorite so far was him with a guy dressed like Teddy Roosevelt.

Teddy Goalsevelt! I love the pic of him fording the rivers of Brazil to get to the game

Oh LOL!!!! I need to find that pic--I had no idea he was a thing!


Can't find a larger version, but you get the idea

i.imgur.com
 
2014-07-08 09:46:54 AM  

ginandbacon: I have to root for Brazil today. I'm not sure they can pull it off, though.

I've also been getting the best pictures from a friend who is down there. My favorite so far was him with a guy dressed like Teddy Roosevelt.


I don't like you very much right now.

/rooting for zee Fatherland
 
2014-07-08 09:49:20 AM  

marius2: ginandbacon: marius2: ginandbacon: I have to root for Brazil today. I'm not sure they can pull it off, though.

I've also been getting the best pictures from a friend who is down there. My favorite so far was him with a guy dressed like Teddy Roosevelt.

Teddy Goalsevelt! I love the pic of him fording the rivers of Brazil to get to the game

Oh LOL!!!! I need to find that pic--I had no idea he was a thing!

Can't find a larger version, but you get the idea

[i.imgur.com image 225x224]


HAHAHAHAHA!!!!!! Awesome--this is my buddy with Teddy:

i938.photobucket.com
 
2014-07-08 09:50:06 AM  

KingKauff: ginandbacon: I have to root for Brazil today. I'm not sure they can pull it off, though.

I've also been getting the best pictures from a friend who is down there. My favorite so far was him with a guy dressed like Teddy Roosevelt.

I don't like you very much right now.

/rooting for zee Fatherland


You'll get over it ;)
 
2014-07-08 09:50:43 AM  

ginandbacon: marius2: ginandbacon: marius2: ginandbacon: I have to root for Brazil today. I'm not sure they can pull it off, though.

I've also been getting the best pictures from a friend who is down there. My favorite so far was him with a guy dressed like Teddy Roosevelt.

Teddy Goalsevelt! I love the pic of him fording the rivers of Brazil to get to the game

Oh LOL!!!! I need to find that pic--I had no idea he was a thing!

Can't find a larger version, but you get the idea

[i.imgur.com image 225x224]

HAHAHAHAHA!!!!!! Awesome--this is my buddy with Teddy:

[i938.photobucket.com image 540x540]


That is great
 
2014-07-08 09:51:19 AM  

ginandbacon: KingKauff: ginandbacon: I have to root for Brazil today. I'm not sure they can pull it off, though.

I've also been getting the best pictures from a friend who is down there. My favorite so far was him with a guy dressed like Teddy Roosevelt.

I don't like you very much right now.

/rooting for zee Fatherland

You'll get over it ;)


THIS IS WORSE THAN FARK'S LAST REDESIGN! I'LL NEVER GET OVER IT!
 
2014-07-08 09:54:05 AM  
ok, I got over it
 
2014-07-08 09:54:37 AM  
ginandbacon:

HAHAHAHAHA!!!!!! Awesome--this is my buddy with Teddy:

[i938.photobucket.com image 540x540]


That's amazing, he needs to have someone professionally paint that and hang it over his fireplace
 
2014-07-08 09:56:40 AM  

KingKauff: ginandbacon: marius2: ginandbacon: marius2: ginandbacon: I have to root for Brazil today. I'm not sure they can pull it off, though.

I've also been getting the best pictures from a friend who is down there. My favorite so far was him with a guy dressed like Teddy Roosevelt.

Teddy Goalsevelt! I love the pic of him fording the rivers of Brazil to get to the game

Oh LOL!!!! I need to find that pic--I had no idea he was a thing!

Can't find a larger version, but you get the idea

[i.imgur.com image 225x224]

HAHAHAHAHA!!!!!! Awesome--this is my buddy with Teddy:

[i938.photobucket.com image 540x540]

That is great


Isn't it? And he's the nicest guy in the world. He was SO excited to be there. He's gotten some amazing pictures but I don't feel like I can share those ones...you can tell he's having an absolute blast though.
 
2014-07-08 09:57:23 AM  

marius2: ginandbacon:

HAHAHAHAHA!!!!!! Awesome--this is my buddy with Teddy:

[i938.photobucket.com image 540x540]

That's amazing, he needs to have someone professionally paint that and hang it over his fireplace


On velvet?
 
2014-07-08 10:02:26 AM  

ginandbacon: KingKauff: ginandbacon: marius2: ginandbacon: marius2: ginandbacon: I have to root for Brazil today. I'm not sure they can pull it off, though.

I've also been getting the best pictures from a friend who is down there. My favorite so far was him with a guy dressed like Teddy Roosevelt.

Teddy Goalsevelt! I love the pic of him fording the rivers of Brazil to get to the game

Oh LOL!!!! I need to find that pic--I had no idea he was a thing!

Can't find a larger version, but you get the idea

[i.imgur.com image 225x224]

HAHAHAHAHA!!!!!! Awesome--this is my buddy with Teddy:

[i938.photobucket.com image 540x540]

That is great

Isn't it? And he's the nicest guy in the world. He was SO excited to be there. He's gotten some amazing pictures but I don't feel like I can share those ones...you can tell he's having an absolute blast though.


EIP
 
2014-07-08 10:03:01 AM  

ginandbacon: marius2: ginandbacon:

HAHAHAHAHA!!!!!! Awesome--this is my buddy with Teddy:

[i938.photobucket.com image 540x540]

That's amazing, he needs to have someone professionally paint that and hang it over his fireplace

On velvet?


This needs to happen!
 
2014-07-08 10:04:37 AM  
Propaganda time

i.imgur.com
 
2014-07-08 10:09:06 AM  

dookdookdook: When is this crap going to be over?


Now you know how we feel about Bowl Season.

OprahYouGetABowlBid.gif

/National Championship to be played at Mardi Gras
 
2014-07-08 10:21:40 AM  

marius2: Propaganda time

[i.imgur.com image 576x960]


*shakes tiny fist*
 
2014-07-08 10:28:40 AM  

ginandbacon: marius2: Propaganda time

[i.imgur.com image 576x960]

*shakes tiny fist*


*shakes equally as tiny fist back at you*
 
2014-07-08 10:37:41 AM  

dookdookdook: When is this crap going to be over?


you can feel free to not watch, or pay attention, or participate in this thread, or even turn on the TV.  there is a multitude of things you could do rather than pay attention to the world cup.
 
2014-07-08 10:44:37 AM  
I've got Germany, 3-1. I feel like Brazil is something of a paper tiger and will be exposed.
 
2014-07-08 10:46:42 AM  
1.bp.blogspot.com
 
2014-07-08 10:48:25 AM  
I wish they played this and the other semi final match the same day. Its killing me to wait for Oranje.
 
2014-07-08 10:49:39 AM  
Nate Silver unskues the odds for Brazil vs. Germany:  http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-neymars-injury-affects-brazil s -chances-at-the-world-cup/

In a nutshell: Brazil's odds at winning went down to 65% from 73% with Neymar.
My bookie has the odds EVEN, EVEN. But, as Nate Silver points out, the bookies have favored European teams consistently over the World Cup and were consistently wrong.
 
2014-07-08 10:53:39 AM  
From watching both teams, I'd say Germany, 2-1.

But then I remember that Brazil's style of play does something that breaks the machine. They cause the Germans to segfault.
 
2014-07-08 10:58:19 AM  

hinten: Nate Silver unskues the odds for Brazil vs. Germany:  http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-neymars-injury-affects-brazil s -chances-at-the-world-cup/

In a nutshell: Brazil's odds at winning went down to 65% from 73% with Neymar.
My bookie has the odds EVEN, EVEN. But, as Nate Silver points out, the bookies have favored European teams consistently over the World Cup and were consistently wrong.


He still has waaay too much homefield advantage. Germany is definitely favored because they have been the better team recently.

2002 Brazil 1st
Germany 2nd

2006
Brazil 5th
Germany 3rd

2010
Brazil 6th
Germany 3rd

Brazil is a great team and even without Neymar, they shouldn't be counted out, but Germany has the advantage. Germany was favored to win since 2006, and just collapses every semi-final. If Germany can break the semi-final collapse curse, they should be golden
 
2014-07-08 11:16:15 AM  
♫♪ Deutschland, Deutschland über alles! ♪♫
 
2014-07-08 11:20:37 AM  
I just hope the ref decides to officiate instead of letting it be UFC on grass like COL-BRA was.  While the level of play in that match was terrific, it was an unrestrained mess.

Brazil 2-1 in OT.
 
2014-07-08 11:22:22 AM  
I think we can all agree that this is in fact the default finals.

The loser will be shamed with 3rd place.


i.imgur.com

This may be the first World Cup I called before the matches ever started!!
 
2014-07-08 11:24:37 AM  
I want both teams to lose.
 
2014-07-08 11:51:40 AM  
DON'T FORGET TO SUBMIT YOUR PREDICTIONS
 
2014-07-08 11:55:30 AM  
My prediction: Game goes to penalty shootout. Brazil wins.
 
2014-07-08 12:41:34 PM  
Would love to see Klose beat Ronaldo's record against Brazil :P
 
2014-07-08 01:19:34 PM  
Neymar just needs to tape it up and get back out there.

scontent-b-ord.xx.fbcdn.net
 
2014-07-08 01:50:57 PM  

marius2: Would love to see Klose beat Ronaldo's record against Brazil :P


You know why I don't want to see Klose break the record?

2002. He went hat trick against a Saudi side that was just ridiculously outclassed. It's one thing to snag a couple early goals against a weak side. It's another to potentially break the all-time WC scoring record because you threw one to the back of the net in garbage time against a bunch of guys who had no business being in the same tournament.
 
2014-07-08 02:07:05 PM  

marius2: DON'T FORGET TO SUBMIT YOUR PREDICTIONS


I predict Some Bass Playing Guy is going to have a disappoint.
 
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