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(BBC-US)   Russian special forces evacuate from the city of Sloviansk. Looks like the big bad bear may not be as fierce as once thought   (bbc.com) divider line 62
    More: Followup, Slovyansk, Ukraine, Ukraine crisis  
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5479 clicks; posted to Main » on 05 Jul 2014 at 6:21 PM (46 weeks ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2014-07-06 03:30:33 AM  
Russia's predicament is that the amount of material & troops they would have to send in to achieve victory exceeds any semblance of "plausible deniability," while the Ukraine has no such political restrictions and can therefore send everything they've got with impunity.

If Russia where to stop caring about political face they could very easily send in enough stuff to crush the Ukraine in under a month; tanks, planes, legions of soldiers, etc.  However, as stated above, since they're trying to keep their involvement on the down-low, they are extremely limited by what they can send to the separatists (read: "military advisers" and man-portable weapons).

So the real question is how Russia is going to react: Will they continue to try to stop Ukrainian tanks & planes with a handful of "special forces" armed with infantry gear (good infantry gear, yes, but still just infantry gear) or will they drop the facade and send in the real Russian military to curb stomp the Ukraine once and for all?  You know, like they did in Georgia a few years back.
 
2014-07-06 08:04:56 AM  

NathanAllen: I have a real hard time telling Ukrainians from Russians whhen they're trying to score codine to turn into meth ahead of me in line at Walgreen's at me midnight.


Either you're pissed that by the time you get to the front of the line all the codeine is gone; or you need to work on your grammar.
 
2014-07-06 08:53:37 AM  

Breygon: trotsky: Russian Special Forces are spot-on.

Unless they're called upon to rescue you from chechnian high-jackers holed up in a Moscow theater


Sure, you're dead, but, your ass has been rescued.  All this farking nit-picking, about who's alive and who's dead.  Give 'em a break, already.
 
2014-07-06 08:57:43 AM  

Breygon: trotsky: Russian Special Forces are spot-on.

Unless they're called upon to rescue you from chechnian high-jackers holed up in a Moscow theater


Rumour has it that SF were given orders to shoot anyone dressed in black, just in case
 
2014-07-06 09:18:15 AM  
Plans
www.eode.org

Reality
 pbs.twimg.com


"The breakthrough took the enemy completely by surprise" Strelkov

http://progressivepress.com/blog-entry/dirty-war-ukraine
 
2014-07-06 10:28:05 AM  

NephilimNexus: So the real question is how Russia is going to react: Will they continue to try to stop Ukrainian tanks & planes with a handful of "special forces" armed with infantry gear (good infantry gear, yes, but still just infantry gear) or will they drop the facade and send in the real Russian military to curb stomp the Ukraine once and for all? You know, like they did in Georgia a few years back.


The Georgians were dumb enough to attack Russian forces that were still on the Russian side of the boarder, in addition to the Russian forces that had crosses into the breakaway regions.
 
2014-07-06 10:35:57 AM  

Satanic_Hamster: NephilimNexus: So the real question is how Russia is going to react: Will they continue to try to stop Ukrainian tanks & planes with a handful of "special forces" armed with infantry gear (good infantry gear, yes, but still just infantry gear) or will they drop the facade and send in the real Russian military to curb stomp the Ukraine once and for all? You know, like they did in Georgia a few years back.

The Georgians were dumb enough to attack Russian forces that were still on the Russian side of the boarder, in addition to the Russian forces that had crosses into the breakaway regions.


And I still can't get over how incompetent the Russian military was shown to be during the Georgian conflict.  They failed to get air superiority or destroy the Georgian air force, they lost a general to small arms fire, they lost seven confirmed air craft (with 5 possible others), including a god damn Tu-22 Backfire with their top test pilot / flight trainer on it.

That's like us losing a B-1 against Grenada.
 
2014-07-06 11:07:25 AM  
How you read this situation depends on how you read Putin, because the Ukraine region in question is an economic black hole. Imagine a region where all the cities are Detroit and everything in between is west Texas. The Russian economy is in bad enough shape already, without subsidizing and supporting that mess.

So if you think Putin is really smart, making trouble in Luhansk and Donetsk is a feint so that withdrawing while keeping Crimea seems like a "reasonable compromise". This was his plan all along.

But if you think he is actually the Stalinist would-be dictator/president for life who has ruthlessly exploited the oligarchs and is now exploiting the Orthodox Church and the nationalists to entrench his own power that he appears to be, then this was a huge mistake of an overreach. He underestimated the foreign reaction, especially the impact of sanctions, and is slowly realizing that not only can't he win in Ukraine, he can't afford Ukraine and the new navy he so desperately wants.
 
2014-07-06 11:39:35 AM  

czetie: So if you think Putin is really smart, making trouble in Luhansk and Donetsk is a feint so that withdrawing while keeping Crimea seems like a "reasonable compromise". This was his plan all along.


Crimea is a bit of an economic black hole as well.
 
2014-07-06 12:32:01 PM  

LewDux: Plans
[www.eode.org image 595x408]

Reality
 [pbs.twimg.com image 568x706]


"The breakthrough took the enemy completely by surprise" Strelkov

http://progressivepress.com/blog-entry/dirty-war-ukraine


If that second map is accurately reflecting things on the ground, I wouldn't be surprised if any Russians (current military or not) are beating feet to the border before they get encircled.
 
2014-07-06 01:06:26 PM  

FloridaWombat: LewDux: Plans
[www.eode.org image 595x408]

Reality
 [pbs.twimg.com image 568x706]


"The breakthrough took the enemy completely by surprise" Strelkov

http://progressivepress.com/blog-entry/dirty-war-ukraine

If that second map is accurately reflecting things on the ground, I wouldn't be surprised if any Russians (current military or not) are beating feet to the border before they get encircled.


Source
 
2014-07-06 01:41:27 PM  

Satanic_Hamster: czetie: So if you think Putin is really smart, making trouble in Luhansk and Donetsk is a feint so that withdrawing while keeping Crimea seems like a "reasonable compromise". This was his plan all along.

Crimea is a bit of an economic black hole as well.


It certainly is, just not on the scale of east Ukraine, and with fewer strategic compensations.
 
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