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(FIFA)   The World Cup round of 16 begins today with Brazil vs Chile (12 ET), and Colombia vs Uruguay (4 ET) winner goes on, loser goes home   (fifa.com) divider line 1634
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166 clicks; posted to Sports » on 28 Jun 2014 at 10:32 AM (47 weeks ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2014-06-28 09:00:14 AM  
Okay, remember, there are no draws after this point. Every match must have a winner. If the game is still even after 90 minutes and stoppage time, two periods of 15 minutes are added, and then if still even the game goes to penalties. There is no Golden Goal rule anymore (meaning, it's not like Hockey were the first person who scores in extra time automatically wins, the period will continue to be played out giving the other team a chance to equalize again)

It's a one match game. Loser is done, winner moves on.


First match, home team Brazil against Chile. Brazil has been greatly overrated in this entire Cup so far, but I don't see Chile getting past them. Let's see how they got this far

Brazil beat Croatia in a controversial opener 3-1, then drew with Mexico 0-0, before beating Cameroon 1-4.

Chile beat Australia 3-1, knocked Spain around 2-0, but then lost by the same to the Netherlands.

It should hopefully be an exciting match, but if Brazil come out as the team everyone has claimed they are, then Chile will be out. If Brazil come out and play like Spain... well you saw what happened. 

Second Match
Colombia vs Uruguay.
Despite the loss of their star player, I'm giving Uruguay the nod here. Let's look at how they got here

Colombia had arguably a much easier group, taking a 3-0 win over Greece, a 2-1 over Ivory Coast, and a 1-4 win over Japan allowing them to sweep the group and take first place.

Uruguay were in the (real) Group of Death which saw Italy and England sent home early. Uruguay lost to group leaders Costa Rica 1-3, before beating England 2-1, and chowing down on Italy to crush their dreams 1-0.

Suarez is going to be missed greatly (by them at least), but I don't see Colombia really pulling ahead unless Uruguay protest, or are just too miserable to even try to play, so we'll have to wait and see if that has any effect on the players.
 
2014-06-28 09:00:52 AM  
Oh and Fark people, don't forget to put in your predictions in the Fark league thingy if you haven't already
 
2014-06-28 09:35:03 AM  
No sudden death in overtime. Way to make soccer even more boring.
 
2014-06-28 09:53:39 AM  
Here are 538 and Football-Rankings.info's elo simulator probabilities for winning the game and the tournament:

Brazil 82% / 41% on 538; 74% / 27% on F-R
Chile 18% / 2% on 538; 26% / 3.2% on F-R
Colombia 69% / 6% on 538; 58% / 5.3% on F-R
Uruguay 31% / <1% on 538; 42% / 2.4% on F-R

538 (Nate Silver) has a big home-continent bonus and a heavy weight towards favorites. The Elo simulator seems to be a lot more forgiving to significant underdogs.

If you were a betting man, there are a couple places where these probabilities diverge from betting odds. Some possible bets (all lines from Bovada as of last night, and all lines for round of 16 games are "to advance"):
Nigeria is given a 24%/32% chance, but is paying out at 3-to-1, for an EV of 0.96/1.30
Switzerland is given a 22%/33% chance and is paying out at 13-to-4 for an EV of 0.94/1.39
The only team significantly EV on both sites is USA, given a 41%/48% chance, but paying better than 3-to-2 for an EV of 1.09/1.27.

If you're looking further down the road, some possible best bets for "advance to final":
Colombia, paying 10-to-1, EV of 1.21/1.17
Netherlands, paying 3-to-1, EV of 1.16/1.20

And for "win the World Cup":
The only good bet according to 538 is Brazil. Silver gives them a 41% chance of victory, and they're paying 3-to-1, for an EV of 1.64.
The best bets on F-R are massive underdogs. Nigeria getting 200-to-1, Greece and Switzerland getting 100-to-1, and USA getting 50-to-1 are all more likely to win then those odds suggest, according to Elo. Switzerland (Elo says 2.26% chance) is the only one of those I'd even consider wagering on. Also Netherlands (Elo says 15% chance, paying 7-to-1, EV of 1.21) may be worth a flyer.

/I hold no responsibility for the legality of your wagers
//nor the ability for you to safely return your money to your own pocket
///but I do wish I was in Vegas this weekend
 
2014-06-28 09:56:04 AM  

marius2: Oh and Fark people, don't forget to put in your predictions in the Fark league thingy if you haven't already


Oh damn, thanks for the reminder. Picks made.

A few upsets this round. Brazil-Chile has been the hardest match to call. I think Chile has the quality to pull off a win, but I had to run with the favorites here. Costa Rica has been playing out of their minds and I'm picking them to sent Greece home. I think the US will nick a win from Belgium because they're playing better as a team. Belgium has better players at nearly every position but they haven't impressed when I've watched them. Switzerland has also been playing better than the sum of its parts and I've tipped them to edge Argentina, despite the Messi Factor.
 
2014-06-28 09:59:21 AM  

Langston: marius2: Oh and Fark people, don't forget to put in your predictions in the Fark league thingy if you haven't already

Oh damn, thanks for the reminder. Picks made.


i.imgur.com
 
2014-06-28 10:23:49 AM  
Chile is gonna beat brazil in a spectacular upset

Uruguay is gonna get eaten alive by the Columbian offense and their butthurt will blot out the sun
 
2014-06-28 10:35:49 AM  
I'm rooting for Chile and Columbia.

I had originally picked Brazil to win the whole enchilada but the way that first game was called made me turn against them.
 
2014-06-28 10:36:13 AM  
This is where the World Cup actually starts to get interesting, I'm not into the whole "lose but still move on" early phase.  Win or go home makes the games much better.
 
2014-06-28 10:38:38 AM  
Suarez: "I lost my balance, making my body unstable and falling on top of my opponent. At that moment I hit my face against the player leaving a small bruise on my cheek and a strong pain in my teeth. "

So stupidly laughable.
 
2014-06-28 10:42:40 AM  

SomebodyElsesShoes: Suarez: "I lost my balance, making my body unstable and falling on top of my opponent. At that moment I hit my face against the player leaving a small bruise on my cheek and a strong pain in my teeth. "

So stupidly laughable.


He should have gotten the maximum penalty just for making that stupid excuse.
 
2014-06-28 10:43:10 AM  

brap: I'm rooting for Chile and Columbia.

I had originally picked Brazil to win the whole enchilada but the way that first game was called made me turn against them.


Same here - Especially after having seen The Two Escobars.
 
2014-06-28 10:43:28 AM  

Errk: No sudden death in overtime. Way to make soccer even more boring.


Unless you decide to keep playing potentially for hours and hours until someone scores (and unless you change the substitution rules, it would be a horrible war of attrition), no sudden death actually makes it more exciting.  The fact a team can equalize during the overtime allows for teams to push forward more rather than be ultra-conservative aiming for the penalty kicks.
 
2014-06-28 10:43:39 AM  
And don't get me wrong, I'd love to see Brazil and Uruguay both get sent packing ;)
 
2014-06-28 10:46:28 AM  

Errk: No sudden death in overtime. Way to make soccer even more boring.


Like college football or basketball


It will never work
 
2014-06-28 10:51:15 AM  

Errk: No sudden death in overtime. Way to make soccer even more boring.


There used to be a golden goal rule, but teams used to be so defensive to prevent getting instantly knocked out that it became the equivalent of Jose Mourinho playing himself.
 
2014-06-28 10:54:33 AM  
Well, after seeing that shot of Neymar, I'll be rooting against Brazil.

/farking hipster
 
2014-06-28 10:54:33 AM  
I didn't realize how into this I was getting until I went through soccer withdrawal yesterday.
 
2014-06-28 10:55:14 AM  

brap: I didn't realize how into this I was getting until I went through soccer withdrawal yesterday.


I'd get help. Cold turkey comes July 14.
 
2014-06-28 11:00:25 AM  

marius2: Oh and Fark people, don't forget to put in your predictions in the Fark league thingy if you haven't already


That.

Most games already played, BUT we now have a much higher Banker to game ratio, meaning we can still all do some real damage.
 
2014-06-28 11:00:39 AM  

PowerSlacker: SomebodyElsesShoes: Suarez: "I lost my balance, making my body unstable and falling on top of my opponent. At that moment I hit my face against the player leaving a small bruise on my cheek and a strong pain in my teeth. "

So stupidly laughable.

He should have gotten the maximum penalty just for making that stupid excuse.


This is FIFA.  Where they don't bat an eyelid at "of course we can air condition the stadiums!"  Suarez might be okay on the field, but his bullshiat wouldn't cut it in a third-tier junior club in rural New Zealand.
 
2014-06-28 11:02:41 AM  

Princip's Sandwich: Errk: No sudden death in overtime. Way to make soccer even more boring.

There used to be a golden goal rule, but teams used to be so defensive to prevent getting instantly knocked out that it became the equivalent of Jose Mourinho playing himself.


I think overtime would be improved if the teams were allowed one additional substitution.
 
2014-06-28 11:04:20 AM  

mootmah: brap: I didn't realize how into this I was getting until I went through soccer withdrawal yesterday.

I'd get help. Cold turkey comes July 14.


Champions League SECOND round qualifying begins 15th July.

BATE Borisov v Skenderbeu Korcë
Celtic v KR Reykjavik    
Cliftonville v Debreceni     
Dinamo Tbilisi v Aktobe     
Dinamo Zagreb v Zalgiris    
Legia Warsaw v St Patrick's Athletic   
Malmö FF v Ventspils   
Rabotnicki v HJK Helsinki   
Sheriff Tiraspol v Sutjeska Niksic  
Slovan Bratislava v The New Saints    
Strømsgodset v Steaua Bucharest  
Valletta FC v FK Qarabag  
Zrinjski Mostar v NK Maribor
 
2014-06-28 11:06:07 AM  

caira: PowerSlacker: SomebodyElsesShoes: Suarez: "I lost my balance, making my body unstable and falling on top of my opponent. At that moment I hit my face against the player leaving a small bruise on my cheek and a strong pain in my teeth. "

So stupidly laughable.

He should have gotten the maximum penalty just for making that stupid excuse.

This is FIFA.  Where they don't bat an eyelid at "of course we can air condition the stadiums!"  Suarez might be okay on the field, but his bullshiat wouldn't cut it in a third-tier junior club in rural New Zealand.


Coff:  http://www.nzherald.co.nz/cultures/news/article.cfm?c_id=105&objectid = 10462390  '
'Battle rage' fed Maori cannibalism'
 
2014-06-28 11:07:32 AM  
For todays games I'm predicting 2-1 Brazil and 2-1 Columbia.

The reason I'm posting is to let the rest of you know that my predictions have been absolutely terrible, so you shouldn't make the same mistake  I did....
 
2014-06-28 11:12:20 AM  

Princip's Sandwich: Errk: No sudden death in overtime. Way to make soccer even more boring.

There used to be a golden goal rule, but teams used to be so defensive to prevent getting instantly knocked out that it became the equivalent of Jose Mourinho playing himself.


The numbers don't bear this out. We can split the era of the 16-team knockout round into pre-GG, GG, and post-GG periods.
Pre-GG (1986-1994): 7 of 17 games that went to ET were decided (41%)
GG (1998-2002): 4 of 9 (44%)
Post-GG (2006-2010): 4 of 10 (40%)
One caveat is that one 1994 quarterfinal had each team score in ET, with Romania scoring at 101' and Sweden at 115' and then winning the shootout. This is the only case in the last 30 years that a team has allowed the first goal of extra time and won the match. If you want a football game to decided by football, golden goal did not stop that from happening.

If I ruled the futbol world, I would permit one additional substitution for a match that went to extra time, (perhaps say a game can go to 4 extra time periods, with a fifth sub allowed after 120') and decree that the Final could not go to penalties.
 
2014-06-28 11:13:24 AM  
I've got Chile and Columbia today.  We will find out if the fix is in or not with the South American nations.
 
2014-06-28 11:14:25 AM  

Mr_H: For todays games I'm predicting 2-1 Brazil and 2-1 Columbia.

The reason I'm posting is to let the rest of you know that my predictions have been absolutely terrible, so you shouldn't make the same mistake  I did....


So I should predict 2-1 Chile and 2-1 Uruguay then.

/note: my predictions have also been absolutely terrible.
 
2014-06-28 11:16:28 AM  

midpoint: caira: PowerSlacker: SomebodyElsesShoes: Suarez: "I lost my balance, making my body unstable and falling on top of my opponent. At that moment I hit my face against the player leaving a small bruise on my cheek and a strong pain in my teeth. "

So stupidly laughable.

He should have gotten the maximum penalty just for making that stupid excuse.

This is FIFA.  Where they don't bat an eyelid at "of course we can air condition the stadiums!"  Suarez might be okay on the field, but his bullshiat wouldn't cut it in a third-tier junior club in rural New Zealand.

Coff:  http://www.nzherald.co.nz/cultures/news/article.cfm?c_id=105&objectid = 10462390  '
'Battle rage' fed Maori cannibalism'


Nice!  In all seriousness, if he had shown, at any point, that he knew what he did was wrong, he might well have seen somewhat less of a ban.

But as is almost always the case with Suarez, deflection and denial is how he chooses to defend himself.
 
2014-06-28 11:21:10 AM  

ariseatex: Mr_H: For todays games I'm predicting 2-1 Brazil and 2-1 Columbia.

The reason I'm posting is to let the rest of you know that my predictions have been absolutely terrible, so you shouldn't make the same mistake  I did....

So I should predict 2-1 Chile and 2-1 Uruguay then.

/note: my predictions have also been absolutely terrible.


Between the two of us we may divide by zero.
 
2014-06-28 11:22:15 AM  
midpoint:
That.

Most games already played, BUT we now have a much higher Banker to game ratio, meaning we can still all do some real damage.


How do penalties and such work? If I predict it'll go to penalties, do I just put it as an even score?
 
2014-06-28 11:24:33 AM  

marius2: midpoint:
That.

Most games already played, BUT we now have a much higher Banker to game ratio, meaning we can still all do some real damage.

How do penalties and such work? If I predict it'll go to penalties, do I just put it as an even score?


I think so. I have no confirmation. Scoring system isn't telling:  https://predictor.talksport.com/help/scoring.htm
 
2014-06-28 11:31:49 AM  

midpoint: marius2: midpoint:
That.

Most games already played, BUT we now have a much higher Banker to game ratio, meaning we can still all do some real damage.

How do penalties and such work? If I predict it'll go to penalties, do I just put it as an even score?

I think so. I have no confirmation. Scoring system isn't telling:  https://predictor.talksport.com/help/scoring.htm


I'm not betting on it.  Because the final score is noted as the winner by one, that is how I've figured it and have adjusted my predictions accordingly.
 
2014-06-28 11:32:02 AM  
I had Chile meeting (and losing to) Brazil in the final.

Since that matchup isn't going to pan out, it's obviously going to be 3-2, Chile, AET.
 
2014-06-28 11:33:43 AM  
If Brazil controls the tempo- it is in their favor. If not, Chile will run all over them.
I don't see Uruguay being able to put El Champo out of their mind. Colombia sends em packing.
 
2014-06-28 11:34:23 AM  
So Suarez says he lost his balance:

"In no way it happened how you have described, as a bite or intent to bite. After the impact... I lost my balance, making my body unstable and falling on top of my opponent. At that moment I hit my face against the player leaving a small bruise on my cheek and a strong pain in my teeth."

Someone else lost his balance and did something inappropriate.
 
2014-06-28 11:35:07 AM  
I can't seem to upload pics to Fark at the moment, so I can't put up a screenclip to show that WCFFPL is still at No. 1 in the league of mini-leagues. Second place catching up and they have 380* players so it is going to be tough to stay ahead!

* League score is sum of 4 best individual scores in that round.
 
2014-06-28 11:35:15 AM  

midpoint: marius2: midpoint:
That.

Most games already played, BUT we now have a much higher Banker to game ratio, meaning we can still all do some real damage.

How do penalties and such work? If I predict it'll go to penalties, do I just put it as an even score?

I think so. I have no confirmation. Scoring system isn't telling:  https://predictor.talksport.com/help/scoring.htm


i checked yesterday

prediction is for 90mins, do not include AET or penalty kick deciders so draws after 90 are allowed for picks
 
2014-06-28 11:35:23 AM  

Nadie_AZ: If Brazil controls the tempo- it is in their favor. If not, Chile will run all over them.
I don't see Uruguay being able to put El Champo out of their mind. Colombia sends em packing.


Suddenly, I'm picturing the Colombians chewing on coca leaves.  I don't know why.
 
2014-06-28 11:35:40 AM  

star_topology: So Suarez says he lost his balance:

"In no way it happened how you have described, as a bite or intent to bite. After the impact... I lost my balance, making my body unstable and falling on top of my opponent. At that moment I hit my face against the player leaving a small bruise on my cheek and a strong pain in my teeth."

Someone else lost his balance and did something inappropriate.


static3.businessinsider.com

So did he.
 
2014-06-28 11:36:18 AM  
Number of CHICKEN FAT ads played on Univision so far today:  1
 
2014-06-28 11:36:37 AM  
RminusQ
Princip's Sandwich: Errk:
No sudden death in overtime. Way to make soccer even more boring.

There used to be a golden goal rule, but teams used to be so defensive to prevent getting instantly knocked out that it became the equivalent of Jose Mourinho playing himself.

The numbers don't bear this out.



As far as I'm concerned, those numbers can go and fark themselves while I'm watching far more entertaining non-GG extra time fight.
An early goal in ET can make for an hell of an intense, say, 2nd half of ET (especially when there's an away goal rule coming into play in favor of the team that's down).
If you go strictly by those numbers, you could have ended USA-Ghana after two minutes; I'll take the rest of the game over those two minutes (I think I didn't even turn the TV on until minute 10 or so.
 
2014-06-28 11:37:12 AM  

harleyquinnical: Nadie_AZ: If Brazil controls the tempo- it is in their favor. If not, Chile will run all over them.
I don't see Uruguay being able to put El Champo out of their mind. Colombia sends em packing.

Suddenly, I'm picturing the Colombians chewing on coca leaves.  I don't know why.


I thought it was only Bolivians that did that. I think it's mostly Evo Morales' shenanigans that caused that impression for me though.
 
2014-06-28 11:37:13 AM  
knockout time

don't get eliminated!

i.imgur.com
 
2014-06-28 11:38:13 AM  
I heard Obama has colluded with the illuminati to put Brazil through
 
2014-06-28 11:38:55 AM  

The Voice of Doom: RminusQ
Princip's Sandwich: Errk: No sudden death in overtime. Way to make soccer even more boring.

There used to be a golden goal rule, but teams used to be so defensive to prevent getting instantly knocked out that it became the equivalent of Jose Mourinho playing himself.

The numbers don't bear this out.


As far as I'm concerned, those numbers can go and fark themselves while I'm watching far more entertaining non-GG extra time fight.
An early goal in ET can make for an hell of an intense, say, 2nd half of ET (especially when there's an away goal rule coming into play in favor of the team that's down).
If you go strictly by those numbers, you could have ended USA-Ghana after two minutes; I'll take the rest of the game over those two minutes (I think I didn't even turn the TV on until minute 10 or so.


Or the Chelsea v Bayern Munich European Supercup match last season. Chelsea would've won in the first few minutes if there was a golden goal. Instead, Bayern tied on the last kick of 2ET, then we got to see Lukaku screw it up for Jose, who went nuts.
 
2014-06-28 11:38:57 AM  
Drinking my way around Montreal today. I'm sure I'll stumple into a bar or two with a match on.

Brazil 3-2, Colombia 2-1
 
2014-06-28 11:39:12 AM  

Dead for Tax Reasons: i checked yesterday

prediction is for 90mins, do not include AET or penalty kick deciders so draws after 90 are allowed for picks


Great...-_-

Now to change some things with this round.  No, that doesn't seem right to ignore the extra time and penalty kicks, but that's just me.
 
2014-06-28 11:39:39 AM  
at least we got rid of the two matches at the same time.  my attention is frayed at the best of times
 
2014-06-28 11:39:45 AM  
So happy there's only one match at a time again. Not sure my brain could take multiple screens today.
 
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