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(The Register)   Elon Musk: "Fark NASA. I'll put humans on Mars in 2026" Well I'm sure bits of humans will rain down on Mars, maybe even Jupiter too   (theregister.co.uk ) divider line
    More: Unlikely  
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1179 clicks; posted to Geek » on 18 Jun 2014 at 7:39 PM (2 years ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2014-06-18 01:54:02 PM  
It says "Elon Musk", not "Mary Barra".
 
2014-06-18 01:55:52 PM  
Getting there isn't the hard part. Everything else is.
 
2014-06-18 01:56:01 PM  
12 years? nice
 
2014-06-18 02:00:33 PM  
Ten or twelve years seems optimistic, *BUT* given what SpaceX has been able to do in the 12 years since it was founded, who knows?  Maybe they can do it.  Especially if you're willing to put up with more risk than NASA.
 
2014-06-18 02:00:49 PM  

Tr0mBoNe: Getting there isn't the hard part. Everything else is.


mhmm

The current NASA will never get there. They are too risk averse, which leads to overly complex instead of multiple redundancies.
 
2014-06-18 02:06:02 PM  
The technology to do it exists, and it has existed for nearly 4 decades now.  At this point it's just a question of engineering, if you just look at the hardware and software part of it.

Now, the money to do it, and most importantly the *WILL* to do it?  Those are separate questions.
 
2014-06-18 02:31:48 PM  
Getting to the moon was a dick waving thing with the Russians, we don't really have a legitimate reason for going to Mars. Plus, every movie about Mars except Total Recall is a flop.
 
2014-06-18 02:53:29 PM  

Mugato: Getting to the moon was a dick waving thing with the Russians, we don't really have a legitimate reason for going to Mars. Plus, every movie about Mars except Total Recall is a flop.


Mars. So you name it and think that you know it. The red planet, no air, no life. But you do not know Mars, for its true name is Barsoom. And it is not airless, nor is it dead, but it is dying. The city of Zodanga saw to that.
 
2014-06-18 02:53:38 PM  
I put a little Elon Musk on every morning.
The ladies LOVE it.
 
2014-06-18 03:02:34 PM  

Mugato: Getting to the moon was a dick waving thing with the Russians, we don't really have a legitimate reason for going to Mars. Plus, every movie about Mars except Total Recall is a flop.


Haven't you been paying attention? US-Russian dick waving competitions are back in vogue.
 
2014-06-18 03:05:44 PM  

Mugato: Getting to the moon was a dick waving thing with the Russians, we don't really have a legitimate reason for going to Mars. Plus, every movie about Mars except Total Recall is a flop.


Yeah, but Elon Musk can add midget hookers and 3 breasted women to ensure the mission a success.  NASA couldn't get away with something like that.
 
2014-06-18 03:08:12 PM  

Mugato: we don't really have a legitimate reason for going to Mars.


We never really have a legitimate reason to go anywhere we've never been before.  Until we get there, and then we figure out the reason.
 
2014-06-18 03:45:15 PM  
From the chemistry on the surface, Mars is going to be really smelly.
 
2014-06-18 03:48:51 PM  

Mugato: Getting to the moon was a dick waving thing with the Russians, we don't really have a legitimate reason for going to Mars


There's a reason: redundancy. We need to get humanity off this rock in case we get wiped out by an asteroid or if nukes start flying.
 
2014-06-18 04:01:13 PM  

KarmicDisaster: From the chemistry on the surface, Mars is going to be really smelly.


So we send the cast from "The Jersey Shore".  Problem solved.  That even solves the "midget hooker" problem.
 
2014-06-18 04:19:39 PM  

KarmicDisaster: From the chemistry on the surface, Mars is going to be really smelly.


I'm not taking my mask off.  I've seen Total Recall.
 
2014-06-18 04:33:40 PM  
NASA should claim the rover found oil on Mars. We'd be there next year.
 
2014-06-18 05:10:17 PM  

KarmicDisaster: From the chemistry on the surface, Mars is going to be really smelly.


...and the dust is like SuperAsbestosTM it's tears and it burns.
 
2014-06-18 05:55:48 PM  

haemaker: KarmicDisaster: From the chemistry on the surface, Mars is going to be really smelly.

...and the dust is like SuperAsbestosTM it's tears and it burns.


Meh. Asbestos isn't all that bad. You get a good decade out of life.

It's totally worth it to spend the last 10 years on another planet and make sure at least some healthy bacteria make it off of earth.
 
2014-06-18 06:05:46 PM  
Kubrick's dead, so it probably can't be done. Nobody gonna fall for a JJ Abrams production.
 
2014-06-18 07:43:32 PM  
Jupiter Two?

www.rogersrocketships.com
 
2014-06-18 08:04:35 PM  
1.bp.blogspot.com

Jupiter Two indeed...
 
2014-06-18 08:10:54 PM  
If he acts like he does with Solar City, it will be taxpayers paying for the mission anyways. Farking corporate parasite, but it is good when it involves solar right?
 
2014-06-18 08:16:40 PM  
We need to get on this. Ages of exploration have always been good for humans.
 
2014-06-18 08:29:00 PM  

DubtodaIll: We need to get on this. Ages of exploration have always been good for humans.


Not so good for whatever we land on
 
2014-06-18 08:36:00 PM  

Piizzadude: DubtodaIll: We need to get on this. Ages of exploration have always been good for humans.

Not so good for whatever we land on


As far as we can tell there's nothing else out there using it right now. But I'm very pro-human when it comes to that.
 
2014-06-18 08:53:41 PM  

MyRandomName: If he acts like he does with Solar City, it will be taxpayers paying for the mission anyways. Farking corporate parasite, but it is good when it involves solar right?


Remind me again how much you pay when you emit pollution?  What's that? Nothing? Ok, then STFU.
 
2014-06-18 08:59:42 PM  

dittybopper: The technology to do it exists, and it has existed for nearly 4 decades now.  At this point it's just a question of engineering, if you just look at the hardware and software part of it.

Now, the money to do it, and most importantly the *WILL* to do it?  Those are separate questions.


From Musk's standpoint, the will is there.  He started Spacex for the express purpose of colonizing Mars.  It is his life work (Tesla and Solarcity are side hobbies).

Now, whether his own personal will can cut it comes down to the money question. Using traditional methods would be too expensive without the government funding it (and there, the will most definitely does not exist). So it all comes down to if he pulls off his reusable rocket technology. Fuel is cheap (especially methane) and so it is doable if the rockets are reusable.  And so far, on that front, he's been more successful than anyone deserves to be (successfully landing upright on the second try? Really?)
 
2014-06-18 09:28:36 PM  

dittybopper: The technology to do it exists, and it has existed for nearly 4 decades now.  At this point it's just a question of engineering, if you just look at the hardware and software part of it.

Now, the money to do it, and most importantly the *WILL* to do it?  Those are separate questions.


i.imgbox.com
Cowardly Lion: Courage! What makes a king out of a slave? Courage! What makes the flag on the mast to wave? Courage! What makes the elephant charge his tusk in the misty mist, or the dusky dusk? What makes the muskrat guard Elon Musk? Courage! What makes the sphinx the seventh wonder? Courage! What makes the dawn come up like thunder? Courage! What makes the Hottentot so hot? What puts the "ape" in apricot? What have they got that I ain't got?
Dorothy, Scarecrow, Tin Woodsman: Courage!
Cowardly Lion: You can say that again!
 
2014-06-18 09:56:18 PM  

Cpl.D: Jupiter too?  Delta-V does not work that way!

[i.imgur.com image 850x531]
Now stand still so I can teach you about rocketry the hard way!

/non-Kerbal thread is now Kerbal thread


I have just saved that image as:  CplD-is-Insane.jpg

Never..EVER..change..  ;)

I have had the full, paid version of KSP fer somewheres around a year, now..and Steam tells me I've played it a hair over 8 hours..

I would seriously entertain the notion of paying you to Tutor me..  =P

And, to stay on-topic..  Have you tried to contact Musk to offer him your Insanity..errr.."expertise"..?
 
2014-06-18 09:59:38 PM  

miss diminutive: Mugato: Getting to the moon was a dick waving thing with the Russians, we don't really have a legitimate reason for going to Mars

There's a reason: redundancy. We need to get humanity off this rock in case we get wiped out by an asteroid or if nukes start flying.


Until we can build a self-sustaining habitat then it will not be redundancy, it will be a death sentence.

They will be completely reliant on the Earth and if the Earth goes, so do they.

So self-sustainable habitat first, then we put that in places we would normally not be able to survive, which does include many places here on Earth first.

So if we can build a habitat for the Atacama Desert or Antarctica that is self-sustainable THEN the next step is seeing if we can build one that works off planet.
 
2014-06-18 10:05:37 PM  

Jeng: miss diminutive: Mugato: Getting to the moon was a dick waving thing with the Russians, we don't really have a legitimate reason for going to Mars

There's a reason: redundancy. We need to get humanity off this rock in case we get wiped out by an asteroid or if nukes start flying.

Until we can build a self-sustaining habitat then it will not be redundancy, it will be a death sentence.

They will be completely reliant on the Earth and if the Earth goes, so do they.

So self-sustainable habitat first, then we put that in places we would normally not be able to survive, which does include many places here on Earth first.

So if we can build a habitat for the Atacama Desert or Antarctica that is self-sustainable THEN the next step is seeing if we can build one that works off planet.


Why do you hate our species?

/jk, all good points
 
2014-06-18 10:23:05 PM  

Jeng: miss diminutive: Mugato: Getting to the moon was a dick waving thing with the Russians, we don't really have a legitimate reason for going to Mars

There's a reason: redundancy. We need to get humanity off this rock in case we get wiped out by an asteroid or if nukes start flying.

Until we can build a self-sustaining habitat then it will not be redundancy, it will be a death sentence.

They will be completely reliant on the Earth and if the Earth goes, so do they.

So self-sustainable habitat first, then we put that in places we would normally not be able to survive, which does include many places here on Earth first.

So if we can build a habitat for the Atacama Desert or Antarctica that is self-sustainable

THEN the next step is seeing if we can build one that works off planet.

Of those three parts I bolded, the first two are horribly contradictory..  The third bolded comment..well, I understand where you're going..but I posit that any middle step, at this point, really needs to be cut from consideration..  We have had the tech and means and ability for longer than most of us in this thread have been alive..  It's time to find the *WILL* to get it done..

"We choose to go to the moon. We choose to go to the moon in this decade and do the other things, not because they are easy, but because they are hard, because that goal will serve to organize and measure the best of our energies and skills, because that challenge is one that we are willing to accept, one we are unwilling to postpone, and one which we intend to win, and the others, too. "   - JFK
 
2014-06-18 10:28:07 PM  
The will to not take no for an answer.

How incredibly refreshing.
 
2014-06-18 11:17:36 PM  
So here's the thing.

50 years ago, NASA was able to put a man on a suborbital flight. This is a feat that has been unmatched by private industry until SpaceShipOne won the X-Prize a few years back.

Then a few months later, NASA was able to put a man on an orbital flight. This is a feat that private industry is still not capable of doing, because orbital flight is so much more difficult than suborbital.

I don't see private industry putting a man on Mars in 12 years. It's just not happening. They're still not even caught up to where NASA was 50 years ago.
 
2014-06-18 11:21:59 PM  

Jeng: miss diminutive: Mugato: Getting to the moon was a dick waving thing with the Russians, we don't really have a legitimate reason for going to Mars

There's a reason: redundancy. We need to get humanity off this rock in case we get wiped out by an asteroid or if nukes start flying.

Until we can build a self-sustaining habitat then it will not be redundancy, it will be a death sentence.

They will be completely reliant on the Earth and if the Earth goes, so do they.

So self-sustainable habitat first, then we put that in places we would normally not be able to survive, which does include many places here on Earth first.

So if we can build a habitat for the Atacama Desert or Antarctica that is self-sustainable THEN the next step is seeing if we can build one that works off planet.




Not entirely.
Earth has different levels of radiation, climate, solar exposure, bacteria in EVERYTHING, and a number of factors which make it so that something which works here probably won't work on mars.
We need to know more about mars just to have a start.

Personally I think some things can only learned by attempting to do them tho, so its not getting us anywhere to say we can study it here and then put off the study indefinitely.
Set a date, pick a destination, and start working in earnest at this goal.

/If we fail then we can analyze the failure and learn more.
/if we stay here and wait for politicians to green light all the side projects, we'll never learn anything.
/even if its a one time one way trip, its a hell of a way to live out your days.
 
2014-06-18 11:26:17 PM  
Elon Musk ain't doing shiat.  SpaceX only exists to cash in on Congress' insane belief that all budget problems can be solved by privatization, everything else is bullshiat.  Nothing will happen until either someone figures out how to make space travel profitable or Al Qaeda announces a Mars program and we get sucked up into another pissing contest.

To really get something done, we need a truly eccentric billionaire willing to chase a dream with no thought of profit.  So basically, kill Elon Musk and have Richard Branson wear his skin.
 
2014-06-18 11:28:35 PM  

MithrandirBooga: So here's the thing.

50 years ago, NASA was able to put a man on a suborbital flight. This is a feat that has been unmatched by private industry until SpaceShipOne won the X-Prize a few years back.

Then a few months later, NASA was able to put a man on an orbital flight. This is a feat that private industry is still not capable of doing, because orbital flight is so much more difficult than suborbital.

I don't see private industry putting a man on Mars in 12 years. It's just not happening. They're still not even caught up to where NASA was 50 years ago.


Spacex is private and docked with the space station three times.
...and Burt Rutan's suborbital ship flew suborbital multiple times.

The technology for getting to space has gotten better and cheaper and now NASA can't get to orbit, much less the moon, with the same tools Elon is using to plan for mars.

Private/public has nothing to do with it. Our leaders have failed and ruined any hope of a nation sending people to live mars.
There is a slim chance businesses will do it for their own glory. But no chance we will see another apollo moment with politicians at the helm.
 
2014-06-18 11:44:39 PM  
So... Where do I sign up?

/would jump at the chance of a trip to Mars, even if it is a one-way trip and death sentence
 
2014-06-18 11:49:42 PM  

Cpl.D: Jupiter too?  Delta-V does not work that way!

[i.imgur.com image 850x531]
Now stand still so I can teach you about rocketry the hard way!

/non-Kerbal thread is now Kerbal thread


I want to see what happens when someone hits "launch" on that.
 
2014-06-18 11:52:51 PM  
How's that hyperloop coming along?  Elon?  Buddy? Hello???
 
2014-06-18 11:53:04 PM  

MithrandirBooga: So here's the thing.

50 years ago, NASA was able to put a man on a suborbital flight. This is a feat that has been unmatched by private industry until SpaceShipOne won the X-Prize a few years back.

Then a few months later, NASA was able to put a man on an orbital flight. This is a feat that private industry is still not capable of doing, because orbital flight is so much more difficult than suborbital.

I don't see private industry putting a man on Mars in 12 years. It's just not happening. They're still not even caught up to where NASA was 50 years ago.


Don't be ridiculous. There are several private companies that would be more than capable of doing it today.  They just haven't completed certification because they want to be very certain that it is safe.  The bar for safety is way higher than it was then.  Hell, Spacex could send people to the space station tomorrow if the bar for safety was only as high as that of the farking Space Shuttle.
 
2014-06-18 11:56:32 PM  

Bacontastesgood: How's that hyperloop coming along?  Elon?  Buddy? Hello???


If you had been paying attention, you would know that Elon specifically said he wasn't going to build it himself.

A surprising amount of work is going on behind the scenes.  But Elon himself is not currently involved.
 
2014-06-18 11:57:56 PM  

way south: Earth has different levels of radiation, climate, solar exposure, bacteria in EVERYTHING, and a number of factors which make it so that something which works here probably won't work on mars.
We need to know more about mars just to have a start.

Personally I think some things can only learned by attempting to do them tho, so its not getting us anywhere to say we can study it here and then put off the study indefinitely.
Set a date, pick a destination, and start working in earnest at this goal.


If we want to go Mars for the sheer hell of it, then fine. But it's not a plausible "backup plan" for humanity. Nothing that happens between now and when the Sun starts going crazy will ever make the Earth a worse place for humans to live than Mars.
 
2014-06-19 12:46:31 AM  

Tr0mBoNe: Getting there isn't the hard part. Everything else is.


Excellent point.
 
2014-06-19 12:51:35 AM  
Just don't let anyone walk off by themselves.

www.scifimoviepage.com

And watch out for stray Buggalo.

images2.wikia.nocookie.net
 
2014-06-19 03:25:47 AM  

Cpl.D: Jupiter too?  Delta-V does not work that way!


Now stand still so I can teach you about rocketry the hard way!

/non-Kerbal thread is now Kerbal thread


All that hard work goes to waste as soon as you accidentally press the space bar.
 
2014-06-19 03:27:39 AM  

Jeng: miss diminutive: Mugato: Getting to the moon was a dick waving thing with the Russians, we don't really have a legitimate reason for going to Mars

There's a reason: redundancy. We need to get humanity off this rock in case we get wiped out by an asteroid or if nukes start flying.

Until we can build a self-sustaining habitat then it will not be redundancy, it will be a death sentence.

They will be completely reliant on the Earth and if the Earth goes, so do they.

So self-sustainable habitat first, then we put that in places we would normally not be able to survive, which does include many places here on Earth first.

So if we can build a habitat for the Atacama Desert or Antarctica that is self-sustainable THEN the next step is seeing if we can build one that works off planet.


Those environments provide one extremely vital thing that Mars doesn't, though...

Oxygen.

Mars brings unique challenges in that regard (and many others, but that's the biggest)
 
2014-06-19 03:49:23 AM  

Rhino_man: Jeng: miss diminutive: Mugato: Getting to the moon was a dick waving thing with the Russians, we don't really have a legitimate reason for going to Mars

There's a reason: redundancy. We need to get humanity off this rock in case we get wiped out by an asteroid or if nukes start flying.

Until we can build a self-sustaining habitat then it will not be redundancy, it will be a death sentence.

They will be completely reliant on the Earth and if the Earth goes, so do they.

So self-sustainable habitat first, then we put that in places we would normally not be able to survive, which does include many places here on Earth first.

So if we can build a habitat for the Atacama Desert or Antarctica that is self-sustainable THEN the next step is seeing if we can build one that works off planet.

Those environments provide one extremely vital thing that Mars doesn't, though...

Oxygen.

Mars brings unique challenges in that regard (and many others, but that's the biggest)

Mars has an atmosphere, however it's thinner
There IS a very large source of oxygen on mars- however it is difficult to extract.   Namely, Iron Oxide.
 
2014-06-19 03:52:29 AM  

Skyrmion: way south: Earth has different levels of radiation, climate, solar exposure, bacteria in EVERYTHING, and a number of factors which make it so that something which works here probably won't work on mars.
We need to know more about mars just to have a start.

Personally I think some things can only learned by attempting to do them tho, so its not getting us anywhere to say we can study it here and then put off the study indefinitely.
Set a date, pick a destination, and start working in earnest at this goal.

If we want to go Mars for the sheer hell of it, then fine. But it's not a plausible "backup plan" for humanity. Nothing that happens between now and when the Sun starts going crazy will ever make the Earth a worse place for humans to live than Mars.




Environmental collapse, pandemics, nuclear war, asteroid impacts, rampant volcanism... I can think of a few things that will make earth a bad place to live in the short term.
Earth is a better shirtsleeve climate, but no one here is living in a self sustaining environment. Its all interwound between dozens of warring nations on an ever unpredictably shaking ball of mud. It doesn't take much to end our dreams of escape.
Ninety percent of things that lived on earth have been killed by it. So I doubt we'll find it a safe place to stay for long.

Beating the odds means learning to recreate our environment in other places. If only so we aren't all living on one island of life when a tsunami decides to flatten it.

Mars is as good a place to start as any.
Starting at this point means working with small ships. But keep working at it and one day your mayflowers will add up to a New York or three.
 
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