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(Sportige)   While eight matches are a small sample size, this World Cup has three trends so far: plenty of goals, plenty of comebacks and no team wants to end their match in a draw   (sportige.com) divider line 10
    More: Interesting, 2014 World Cup, own goals, Xabi Alonso, Ivory Coast, Neymar, Van Persie  
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280 clicks; posted to Sports » on 15 Jun 2014 at 12:51 PM (10 weeks ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2014-06-15 11:38:14 AM
World Cup fans should just give up trying to use statistics. I've heard all this garbage about "winning the first match makes it way more likely you'll advance."

Gee, maybe it's just that the better teams are both more likely to advance, and more likely to win their first match.
 
2014-06-15 01:13:25 PM
I DEMAND WHAT I WAS PROMISED: 0-0!
 
2014-06-15 01:26:53 PM

Sid_6.7: World Cup fans should just give up trying to use statistics. I've heard all this garbage about "winning the first match makes it way more likely you'll advance."

Gee, maybe it's just that the better teams are both more likely to advance, and more likely to win their first match.


In a 4 team set, only 2 can win their first match. They automatically jump to the top and have proven to be likely the better teams. The crappier teams have to play one more game against each of the initial winners. This means you pretty much have to win your second (if you lose the first) and pray that some other things break your way.

So A beats B
and C beats D.
D plays B and wins
A plays C and wins
A is at the top, and C is in second because they have the tie break over D. And B is in last in their group. In order for D to advance, they need C to lose to B, AND they have to beat A. Good luck.
 
2014-06-15 01:31:27 PM

Sid_6.7: World Cup fans should just give up trying to use statistics. I've heard all this garbage about "winning the first match makes it way more likely you'll advance."

Gee, maybe it's just that the better teams are both more likely to advance, and more likely to win their first match.


But then you've got somebody like Costa Rica, who was easily the worst team in a group with three Top Ten teams.  They win one match and they're now at 77% to advance to the next round.

I think the draws will come but their might be some strategy going on.  If you look at the 2010 World Cup, two teams missed out on the knockout round because of goal differential and four others would have made the knockout round if they could have turned a draw into a loss.  In the World Cup, draws just don't have as much value as in, say, The Hex or another qualification round where you're playing double-round robin.  It's better to keep playing aggressively when tied because if you can get the win you end up way ahead.  A win and a loss is better than two draws.
 
2014-06-15 01:35:02 PM
i.imgur.com
 
2014-06-16 04:39:39 AM

Sid_6.7: World Cup fans should just give up trying to use statistics. I've heard all this garbage about "winning the first match makes it way more likely you'll advance."

Gee, maybe it's just that the better teams are both more likely to advance, and more likely to win their first match.


Momentum is definitely a factor. A team coming off a win in a major tournament will have more confidence going into the next match. I read a study once that demonstrated that strikers who are having a good run will perceive the goal as being larger than it is, while those in a slump see it as being smaller.


On the other hand, complacency is a definite risk, particularly if one team is strongly favoured. I've seen the better team get pumped on more than one occasion by minnows because they let themselves get lazy while their opposition push themselves to keep their energy and pace as high as they can for the full 90 minutes.
 
2014-06-16 04:43:04 AM
Oh, and best of luck to the United States in their match against Ghana.
 
2014-06-16 07:44:14 AM

rugman11: Sid_6.7: World Cup fans should just give up trying to use statistics. I've heard all this garbage about "winning the first match makes it way more likely you'll advance."

Gee, maybe it's just that the better teams are both more likely to advance, and more likely to win their first match.

But then you've got somebody like Costa Rica, who was easily the worst team in a group with three Top Ten teams.  They win one match and they're now at 77% to advance to the next round.

I think the draws will come but their might be some strategy going on.  If you look at the 2010 World Cup, two teams missed out on the knockout round because of goal differential and four others would have made the knockout round if they could have turned a draw into a loss.  In the World Cup, draws just don't have as much value as in, say, The Hex or another qualification round where you're playing double-round robin.  It's better to keep playing aggressively when tied because if you can get the win you end up way ahead.  A win and a loss is better than two draws.


That's exactly why wins are worth three points and draws one. Back in the day where wins were worth only two you saw a lot more defensive play in the first round.

And wayyyyy back in the day (1950s) there was no goal difference so it didn't make a difference to lose 1-0 than get blown out 5-0, so blowouts were more common. In 1962 GD was instituted and the goal per match average dropped like a rock.
 
2014-06-16 10:23:33 AM

farkingismybusiness: [i.imgur.com image 850x441]



chris o'dowd @BigBoyler ·24h
For those clever yokes tweeting me the 'ludicrous display' line from it crowd, just know.. You're the millionth.
 
2014-06-16 01:29:13 PM
What about the trend of flopping?
 
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