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(Five Thirty-Eight)   Nate Silver says Brazil is going to win the World Cup, so now you don't have to pretend to care about soccer this summer and can devote all your attention to the non-stop action and excitement of baseball   (fivethirtyeight.com) divider line 32
    More: Interesting, World Cup, baseball, Confederations Cup, World Cup qualifying, NCAA basketball, FC Barcelona, Luiz Felipe Scolari, Betfair  
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367 clicks; posted to Sports » on 09 Jun 2014 at 5:45 PM (49 weeks ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



32 Comments   (+0 »)
   
View Voting Results: Smartest and Funniest
 
2014-06-09 03:52:18 PM  
so bet brazil to win it all
and england to advance

at least until the odds makers adjust all the lines to fit these new forecasts
 
2014-06-09 04:05:11 PM  
Well, yes and no.  Brazil is by far the outright favorite to win, above any other specific country.However, by his own statistics, it is still at less than 50% chance to win. There is a 55% chance that some other country will win.
 
2014-06-09 04:07:04 PM  
Did Nate silver use his wizard magic to turn into an octopus to make this prediction?
 
2014-06-09 04:25:47 PM  
In addition to them being a good team, there's also the "refs, when deciding whether or not to make an important call against Brazil, know they will be murdered if they do so" aspect to consider.

Not to mention the "Scoring the game-winning goal against Brazil may result in a side effect of death" corollary.
 
2014-06-09 05:46:20 PM  
I'm rooting for another Maracanazo, mostly to see Neymar collapse in tears.
 
2014-06-09 05:51:20 PM  
I wonder if this was also the case during the Olympics.
 
2014-06-09 05:54:39 PM  
Didn't we already figure out that while his algorithm may work for political winds of change, he sucks at predicting sports? It seems like that was his big fail a few months ago, but then again it's been awhile...
 
2014-06-09 05:55:05 PM  
Nevermind that shiat, what's the best burrito in the USA?
 
2014-06-09 05:57:31 PM  
I for one am looking forward to all of the crowd shots when Brazil plays. The women thier are so damn sexy. That being said I wonder how the towels in Qutar are going to deal with the way the Brazilian women dress when they travel there for the games.....

Lots of ass cheek and cleavage. My DVR may not handle the strain.
 
2014-06-09 06:02:38 PM  
If Brazil wins, everybody wins. Because their fans are, well, Brazilian.
 
2014-06-09 06:04:22 PM  
Don't worry subby, I wasn't planning on pretending to care about soccer.
 
2014-06-09 06:14:54 PM  

Jiro Dreams Of McRibs: If Brazil wins, everybody wins. Because their fans are, well, Brazilian.


That's a lot of fans.
 
2014-06-09 06:15:47 PM  
I'm starting to get that weird spring training type optimism about our chances over there.
 
2014-06-09 06:16:06 PM  
I predicted the same thing but I typed it as Brasil because I am a purist and I want people to invite me into their samba line so I can dress up like Cher and celebrate all that is bootiful.
 
2014-06-09 06:16:46 PM  
Silver is just trying to suck the enjoyment out of everything, isn't he?
 
2014-06-09 06:21:34 PM  

TrainingWheelsNeeded: I'm starting to get that weird spring training type optimism about our chances over there.


I had glimmers of hope watching their pre-tournament friendlies.  But Ghana and Nigeria are weaker than anyone else in their actual region IMHO.
 
2014-06-09 06:29:54 PM  

tampaflacouple: That being said I wonder how the towels in Qutar are going to deal with the way the Brazilian women dress when they travel there for the games.....


Qatari officials have made some rather troubling statements about both the "modest" dress they expect, and their attitude on alcohol sales.

They don't want exposed shoulders or knees. They don't think alcohol should be sold in the stadium during a match.
 
2014-06-09 06:53:41 PM  

Gonz: tampaflacouple: That being said I wonder how the towels in Qutar are going to deal with the way the Brazilian women dress when they travel there for the games.....

Qatari officials have made some rather troubling statements about both the "modest" dress they expect, and their attitude on alcohol sales.

They don't want exposed shoulders or knees. They don't think alcohol should be sold in the stadium during a match.


That should instantly disqualify a country from hosting.
 
2014-06-09 06:56:17 PM  

Princip's Sandwich: Gonz: tampaflacouple: That being said I wonder how the towels in Qutar are going to deal with the way the Brazilian women dress when they travel there for the games.....

Qatari officials have made some rather troubling statements about both the "modest" dress they expect, and their attitude on alcohol sales.

They don't want exposed shoulders or knees. They don't think alcohol should be sold in the stadium during a match.

That should instantly disqualify a country from hosting.


I was about to say the same thing.
 
2014-06-09 06:58:02 PM  
 
2014-06-09 06:59:07 PM  
Brazil has a pretty high probability of winning for all of the obvious reasons like that they are very good and they're the host country but also that no European country has ever won a World Cup in the Western Hemisphere.  That along with the weather which will cause problems for teams from more moderate climates will probably lead to some traditionally good teams playing worse than expected.  Whether the eventual champion is Brazil or not the heat, humidity, and travel be a factor in terms of who advances and who doesn't.
 
2014-06-09 07:09:10 PM  
Every time I hear Brazil, I hear the announcer from Street Fighter and that little plane.

I'm just hoping Team USA at least beats Ghana

Also Subby, just cause you don't watch soccer doesn't mean the rest of us only care every 4 years.
 
2014-06-09 08:30:02 PM  
BRA-zil

****whoooshhhh****

*music*

Round one... FIGHT!
 
2014-06-09 10:19:42 PM  
You're out of your element, Nate. I'll roll with the bookies here, thank you. PaddyPower, for example has Brazil at 3/1 and Argentina at 4/1. Germany and Spain are each at 13/2. Then the odds start getting long
 
2014-06-09 10:22:37 PM  
I am from Earth. So I am rooting for Earth.
 
2014-06-09 10:22:52 PM  

HaywoodJablonski: You're out of your element, Nate. I'll roll with the bookies here, thank you. PaddyPower, for example has Brazil at 3/1 and Argentina at 4/1. Germany and Spain are each at 13/2. Then the odds start getting long


So...you'll go with Brazil?
 
2014-06-09 10:24:17 PM  

IAmRight: HaywoodJablonski: You're out of your element, Nate. I'll roll with the bookies here, thank you. PaddyPower, for example has Brazil at 3/1 and Argentina at 4/1. Germany and Spain are each at 13/2. Then the odds start getting long

So...you'll go with Brazil?


Not at a 45% likelihood. Good value on Belgium, Italy and Germany.
 
2014-06-09 10:26:13 PM  

ZM Punk: I'm just hoping Team USA at least beats Ghana


I think the fear's overblown. In 2006, Ghana was the afterthought in the group and the last one played after Italy and the Czech Republic, so they kind of snuck up. In 2010, they were a knockout opponent and thus the US didn't really factor them into their plans too much. This time? They're the first team we play and we've had six solid months to stare straight at them and circle the date on the calendar and generally seethe our asses off at them. They're coming, we know they're coming, we've picked their lineup apart with tweezers. They're not getting away this time.
 
2014-06-10 05:07:05 AM  

orangehat: Brazil has a pretty high probability of winning for all of the obvious reasons like that they are very good and they're the host country but also that no European country has ever won a World Cup in the Western Hemisphere.


England, 1966.

/ITYM "southern".
 
2014-06-10 09:10:18 AM  

orangehat: Brazil has a pretty high probability of winning for all of the obvious reasons like that they are very good and they're the host country but also that no European country has ever won a World Cup in the Western Hemisphere.  That along with the weather which will cause problems for teams from more moderate climates will probably lead to some traditionally good teams playing worse than expected.  Whether the eventual champion is Brazil or not the heat, humidity, and travel be a factor in terms of who advances and who doesn't.


If you are talking about the southern hemisphere you're about four years too late with that talking point.
 
2014-06-10 12:19:55 PM  
I made a World Cup Pool, and I'll give a couple month's worth of TotalFark to the winner. It's different and a little more light-hearted than Midpoint's pool, so be like me and join both. I'm posting it on reddit too, and I'll be pissed if those tools beat you farkers. Put /fark after your username to be eligible for the TotalFark prize:

http://docs.google.com/forms/d/1QmTBBHCgblPZVXSrZA4kTBP2mpFVF4VAJ2fl s1 79jhM/viewform?usp=send_form

Nate Silver, if you see this, I'd be honored to have you enter this pool, use harmonized statisticals for your picks, and then lose in grand fasion :)
 
2014-06-10 10:37:46 PM  

HawaiiE: I made a World Cup Pool, and I'll give a couple month's worth of TotalFark to the winner. It's different and a little more light-hearted than Midpoint's pool, so be like me and join both. I'm posting it on reddit too, and I'll be pissed if those tools beat you farkers. Put /fark after your username to be eligible for the TotalFark prize:

http://docs.google.com/forms/d/1QmTBBHCgblPZVXSrZA4kTBP2mpFVF4VAJ2fl s1 79jhM/viewform?usp=send_form

Nate Silver, if you see this, I'd be honored to have you enter this pool, use harmonized statisticals for your picks, and then lose in grand fasion :)


Once the tournament begins, will you give us a link to view the picks? There's not a goddamn chance I'm gonna remember half of what I picked.
 
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