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(EarthSky)   The soothsayers at NOAA stopped flipping coins long enough to announce that there is a 50% chance that the season hurricane season will be below normal   (earthsky.org) divider line 45
    More: Interesting, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, named storm, Climate Prediction Center, hurricanes, wind shears  
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790 clicks; posted to Main » on 28 May 2014 at 2:24 PM (12 weeks ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



45 Comments   (+0 »)
   
View Voting Results: Smartest and Funniest
 
2014-05-28 12:06:08 PM
So we're all going to die?
 
2014-05-28 12:49:50 PM
Then they asked, "What's a cubit?".
 
2014-05-28 01:32:02 PM

soporific: So we're all going to die?


Yes, I am afraid so.
 
2014-05-28 02:26:47 PM
What kind of seasoning do you use on a hurricane season? I'm guessing Old Bay.
 
2014-05-28 02:27:27 PM

Tricky Chicken: What kind of seasoning do you use on a hurricane season? I'm guessing Old Bay.


Sea Salt.
 
2014-05-28 02:32:42 PM
They don't know shiat.
 
2014-05-28 02:32:55 PM
Pffft I know of a a Nobel Prize winner (for whatever that is worth anymore) that says different


www.cfact.org
 
2014-05-28 02:35:58 PM
100% chance that subby didn't read and/or understand TFA.
 
2014-05-28 02:37:10 PM

Barfmaker: Then they asked, "What's a cubit?".


Riiiight!
 
2014-05-28 02:37:18 PM
I remember after Katrina there was some talk about every storm from now on being Katrina X eleventy!! But now with HAARP shut down everything should be fine......should be.
 
2014-05-28 02:37:25 PM
It's the same sooth they say every year.
 
2014-05-28 02:39:30 PM
Above normal, below normal or normal is because Global Warming.
 
2014-05-28 02:40:32 PM

Barfmaker: Then they asked, "What's a cubit?".


about the same as a henway
 
2014-05-28 02:41:11 PM
The question is does the soothsayer work for my brother....
 
2014-05-28 02:43:10 PM

TrollingForColumbine: Barfmaker: Then they asked, "What's a cubit?".

about the same as a henway


What's a henway?
 
2014-05-28 02:43:23 PM

hasty ambush: Pffft I know of a a Nobel Prize winner (for whatever that is worth anymore) that says different


Not worth much.

But anyway, both sides have done way too much conflating weather with climate.  However, here's a recent relevant study as far as global warming goes that is about hurricanes.

http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/2014/05/14/312531970/tropical-st or ms-hitting-peak-strength-nearer-poles-study-says
 
2014-05-28 02:45:48 PM
60% of the time, they will have more (or fewer) hurricanes EVERY time.
 
2014-05-28 02:46:51 PM
But there's already a hurricane in the gulf of Mexico. Isn't it a bit early?
 
2014-05-28 02:46:53 PM
Trying to reason with hurricane season.
 
2014-05-28 02:50:29 PM
Well there has been some hot man on man action all over the world, so divine retribution?
i.ytimg.com
Hang on for a sec, I'm pooping.
 
2014-05-28 02:51:26 PM

whatsupchuck: 100% chance that subby didn't read and/or understand TFA.


Yeah subby's a moron. But it's worth checking out the National Hurricane Center website and some of the other stuff that NOAA has online. Once you get over the awkward site design there's lots of cool things on there.
 
2014-05-28 02:55:16 PM
Better not come to Florida...
www.miamibeach411.com
We're moonbeam crazy and all our womens have teh pointy knees.
 
2014-05-28 02:55:59 PM
oh, admin. You did this on purpose.  I can hear you giggling.
 
2014-05-28 02:57:21 PM
Subby must be one of the Joe Everymans who aint got time for all that himhawin' high-falootin' yuckamuck them "scientists" are always spewing.

No sir, that thinkin stuff is for the birds.
 
2014-05-28 02:57:34 PM

Launch Code: Above normal, below normal or normal is because Global Warming.


I read it as:

normal + global warming - El Nino = approx normal.
 
2014-05-28 02:57:44 PM
They don't know how many, when or where they will occur yet they can predict the names?!?

/duh
 
2014-05-28 03:01:03 PM
Everything is 50/50. Either it will or it won't.
 
2014-05-28 03:02:51 PM

MurphyMurphy: Subby must be one of the Joe Everymans who aint got time for all that himhawin' high-falootin' yuckamuck them "scientists" are always spewing.

No sir, that thinkin stuff is for the birds.


Thinkin' don't make the crops grow, dont ya know?
 
2014-05-28 03:03:49 PM

Badafuco: Everything is 50/50. Either it will or it won't.


Yep, it's 50/50 that the sun will burn out tomorrow.

/who are we quoting here?  It sounds familiar.
 
2014-05-28 03:06:25 PM

12349876: hasty ambush: Pffft I know of a a Nobel Prize winner (for whatever that is worth anymore) that says different

Not worth much.

But anyway, both sides have done way too much conflating weather with climate.  However, here's a recent relevant study as far as global warming goes that is about hurricanes.

http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/2014/05/14/312531970/tropical-st or ms-hitting-peak-strength-nearer-poles-study-says


And what about all those studies claiming more and larger equatorial hurricanes? Look, when the literature for global climate change releases papers on every possible outcome, you dont get to choose the ones after the fact to prove your theory.
 
2014-05-28 03:17:55 PM
I'll be sure to be normally or slightly less than normally scared.
 
2014-05-28 03:20:15 PM

soporific: So we're all going to die?


Let's see:

*flips nickel*

Nope!
 
2014-05-28 03:31:03 PM
Too bad the post office is not as efficient as the weather service.
 
2014-05-28 03:39:45 PM
3.bp.blogspot.com
 
2014-05-28 03:50:21 PM

soporific: So we're all going to die?


Yes. But probably not from a hurricane.
 
2014-05-28 03:54:36 PM

MurphyMurphy: Subby must be one of the Joe Everymans who aint got time for all that himhawin' high-falootin' yuckamuck them "scientists" are always spewing.

No sir, that thinkin stuff is for the birds.


img.fark.net
 
2014-05-28 04:01:25 PM

Tricky Chicken: TrollingForColumbine: Barfmaker: Then they asked, "What's a cubit?".

about the same as a henway

What's a henway?


About 5 pounds. I'd have thought a chicken would know that.
 
2014-05-28 04:01:29 PM
In related news, an educational scandal has been uncovered- it has been found that fully HALF of all students are producing exam and study results that can only be described as below average!

///Shocking, I know...
 
2014-05-28 04:12:46 PM
Wait. I thought Global Warming = more latent atmospheric energy = more frequent + more powerful storms. Where does the NOAA get off undercutting the prevailing opinion?
 
2014-05-28 05:01:12 PM

HAMMERTOE: Wait. I thought Global Warming = more latent atmospheric energy = more frequent + more powerful storms. Where does the NOAA get off undercutting the prevailing opinion?


Yes, exactly where NOAA get off what has already been decided beyond a doubt with no room for debate?  There is agenda to be completed that has nothing to do with the climate and stuff like this just gets in the way.

blogfiles.wfmu.org
 
2014-05-28 05:50:53 PM

HAMMERTOE: Wait. I thought Global Warming = more latent atmospheric energy = more frequent + more powerful storms. Where does the NOAA get off undercutting the prevailing opinion?



First off, what a single year (and in this case, a single data point) can tell you about trends is extremely limited, and making larger inferences from that can be misleading.

Second, what is actually anticipated is a decrease in the number of cyclones in the North Atlantic, with an increase in intensity. However, the confidence in this sort of thing is rather low. Lemme post the appropriate table from the IPCC AR5 for a bit more detail:

img.fark.net


Anyway, be careful you're not arguing against misconceptions on your part rather than the actual science.
 
2014-05-28 05:54:41 PM

hasty ambush: HAMMERTOE: Wait. I thought Global Warming = more latent atmospheric energy = more frequent + more powerful storms. Where does the NOAA get off undercutting the prevailing opinion?

Yes, exactly where NOAA get off what has already been decided beyond a doubt with no room for debate?  There is agenda to be completed that has nothing to do with the climate and stuff like this just gets in the way.

[blogfiles.wfmu.org image 576x579]



Just be aware that your observation in bold goes both ways - be sure you're basing your opinion on what the climate science is actually telling us rather than your opinion of various agendas (and false information uncritically accepted from other posters for that matter).
 
2014-05-28 06:12:04 PM
hasty ambush:
[blogfiles.wfmu.org image 576x579]


Forgot to mention that you might not be aware that pic represents a bit of a joke/meme, if the goofy grin on the woman and the guy guffawing in the back wasn't enough of a clue. It's been around for a while.
 
2014-05-28 06:14:32 PM
I don't get it. Isn't the chance of something being less (or more) than the average ALWAYS 50%? (assuming a large number of data points, of course)

In any case, the graph in the article indicates they are predicting that the hurricane season is probably going to be either near normal (which means it could be slightly above normal) or below normal. Only a 10% chance that it is going to be above normal - because they say El Nino normally reduces the number of hurricanes in a season:

"This year scientists say there is a 50% chance that the season will be above [sic] normal and a 40% chance that the season will be near normal. They are predicting that there will be between 14 to 20 named storms and that 6 to 11 of these storms will develop into hurricanes. A total of 3 to 6 major hurricanes are expected in eastern North Pacific this year."

But remember, whether there are more hurricanes or less hurricanes, the reason is because of Climate Change. The science is settled, so you don't need to question it. Really. Don't even think about questioning it, you flat-earther.
 
2014-05-28 06:49:10 PM

Damnhippyfreak: on what the climate science is actually telling us


There's not a whole lot of repeatable, falsifiable hypotheses coming out that I can see. Just a whole crapton of speculation based on tangentially-related science in other areas. I'd love some repeatable experiments with falsifiable premises if you can link me to them.
 
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