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(Complex)   This Fall: California to allow self-driving cars on the road. This Winter: The Conquest of the Decepticons to be complete   (complex.com ) divider line
    More: Interesting, Ten Days, driving car, autonomous vehicle  
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1741 clicks; posted to Main » on 25 May 2014 at 1:35 PM (2 years ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2014-05-25 12:13:51 PM  
How long until self-driving cars are not only permitted, but mandated?
 
2014-05-25 12:27:27 PM  

DamnYankees: How long until self-driving cars are not only permitted, but mandated?


They sure can't be any worse than about half the chuckleheads in this state
 
2014-05-25 01:39:17 PM  
"Considering their record we don't expect any mishaps."

Right.
 
2014-05-25 01:40:17 PM  
I just hope they don't replace toilet paper with three seashells.
 
2014-05-25 01:42:27 PM  
Winter after that: Skynet comes online. Kiss your ass goodbye.
 
2014-05-25 01:44:24 PM  

DamnYankees: How long until self-driving cars are not only permitted, but mandated?


On the first, a long time. On the second, a really really long time. But both can't come soon enough IMHO.
 
2014-05-25 01:45:07 PM  
That's a good idea for a futuristic horror movie:  thirty years from now, everything is interconnected and then a hostile AI takes over.  Basically show what happened the day Skynet woke up.  Millions of cars suddenly killing their occupants, planes slamming into explosive targets all over, Michael Bay's wet dream, writ large.
 
2014-05-25 01:46:06 PM  

DamnYankees: How long until self-driving cars are not only permitted, but mandated?


Probably a lot longer than people think. There are still a lot of vehicles on the road that don't have anti-lock brakes, air bags or other such safety features. Driving your own car is still the expectation for large parts of the country, so the price would have to drastically come down/all manual cars would have to be phased out. My guess would be somewhere between 30 to 50 years from now.
 
2014-05-25 01:49:09 PM  

DamnYankees: How long until self-driving cars are not only permitted, but mandated?


At the present rate of progress, I would guess 2020 - it will start with all major roads  6am to 6pm and steadily expand from that.

Main limiting factor is not the technology but how fast Google can micromap a location - signposts, curbs etc
 
2014-05-25 01:51:53 PM  

Jument: DamnYankees: How long until self-driving cars are not only permitted, but mandated?

On the first, a long time. On the second, a really really long time. But both can't come soon enough IMHO.


How can the first be a long time, when TFA is about how CA is going to permit it this year?
 
2014-05-25 01:53:28 PM  

mjjt: Main limiting factor is not the technology but how fast Google can micromap a location - signposts, curbs etc


Once it becomes really commonplace, it's really going to totally change how our road system works. Easy example is parking - its going to change dramatically, since you no longer need to be able to park near where you are going - your car can drop you off, go to an off-site designated parking area, and then pick you up when you ping it. No more street parking at all.
 
2014-05-25 01:53:49 PM  
DamnYankees

How long until self-driving cars are not only permitted, but mandated?

Not soon enough.
 
2014-05-25 01:53:56 PM  

Jument: DamnYankees: How long until self-driving cars are not only permitted, but mandated?

On the first, a long time. On the second, a really really long time. But both can't come soon enough IMHO.


And what happens when they get hacked by bored kids?
 
2014-05-25 01:56:15 PM  

The_Time_Master: Jument: DamnYankees: How long until self-driving cars are not only permitted, but mandated?

On the first, a long time. On the second, a really really long time. But both can't come soon enough IMHO.

And what happens when they get hacked by bored kids?


If bored kids can't hack Google now, what makes you think they could do it in the future?
 
2014-05-25 01:58:54 PM  
What's cool is that the autonomous cars will have about ten cameras running as well as a full record of all engineering parameters.

When the inevitable crash happens, it's going to be very obvious who was at fault.

I would advise the local luddites to not mess around with these cars to try to make them look bad.

You will lose.
 
2014-05-25 02:01:55 PM  

DamnYankees: Jument: DamnYankees: How long until self-driving cars are not only permitted, but mandated?

On the first, a long time. On the second, a really really long time. But both can't come soon enough IMHO.

How can the first be a long time, when TFA is about how CA is going to permit it this year?


RTFA. This is for testing and requires a $5M bond. This is still a long way from "you can buy and operate a self-driving car in CA".
 
2014-05-25 02:02:55 PM  

DamnYankees: The_Time_Master: Jument: DamnYankees: How long until self-driving cars are not only permitted, but mandated?

On the first, a long time. On the second, a really really long time. But both can't come soon enough IMHO.

And what happens when they get hacked by bored kids?

If bored kids can't hack Google now, what makes you think they could do it in the future?


They can't hack Google, but they have no problem hacking their individual Android devices.  It might be worth thinking about.

UPDATE autodrive SET max_allowed_speed = 9999
 
2014-05-25 02:03:58 PM  

studebaker hoch: When the inevitable crash happens, it's going to be very obvious who was at fault.


On the other hands, it's going to be incredibly difficult to determine who is at fault when 2 self driving cars collide. Is it one of the car owners? Is it Google? It is the GPS company feeding google the map info? It'll be strange.
 
2014-05-25 02:04:06 PM  

DamnYankees: The_Time_Master: Jument: DamnYankees: How long until self-driving cars are not only permitted, but mandated?

On the first, a long time. On the second, a really really long time. But both can't come soon enough IMHO.

And what happens when they get hacked by bored kids?

If bored kids can't hack Google now, what makes you think they could do it in the future?


He saw Hackers
 
2014-05-25 02:15:05 PM  

DamnYankees: mjjt: Main limiting factor is not the technology but how fast Google can micromap a location - signposts, curbs etc

Once it becomes really commonplace, it's really going to totally change how our road system works. Easy example is parking - its going to change dramatically, since you no longer need to be able to park near where you are going - your car can drop you off, go to an off-site designated parking area, and then pick you up when you ping it. No more street parking at all.


No more two cars on the freeway going slow that keeps everyone else from going around. No more slowdowns on the freeway when a cop is around. No more slowdowns when there is an accident on the other side of the highway.
 
2014-05-25 02:17:50 PM  

MaudlinMutantMollusk: DamnYankees: How long until self-driving cars are not only permitted, but mandated?

They sure can't be any worse than about half the chuckleheads in this state


WINNAR!
 
2014-05-25 02:20:23 PM  

Jument: DamnYankees: Jument: DamnYankees: How long until self-driving cars are not only permitted, but mandated?

On the first, a long time. On the second, a really really long time. But both can't come soon enough IMHO.

How can the first be a long time, when TFA is about how CA is going to permit it this year?

RTFA. This is for testing and requires a $5M bond. This is still a long way from "you can buy and operate a self-driving car in CA".


Not only that, but there's going to be those who see driving as a pastime,  an inalienable right they are entitled to. At least til they get a ticket or into a wreck.

/Also I wonder how the car insurance industry would be effected. Currently they rake in $200 billion in revenue alone.
 
2014-05-25 02:20:39 PM  
DamnYankees

On the other hands, it's going to be incredibly difficult to determine who is at fault when 2 self driving cars collide. Is it one of the car owners? Is it Google? It is the GPS company feeding google the map info? It'll be strange.

Won't happen.

The vehicles won't be stupid, angry, distracted, intoxicated, inexperienced or raised by a television set.

They will have excellent situational awareness, know the rules of the road and always be focused on driving correctly for the given conditions.  They won't speed, run lights, or enter a state of homicidal rage because they're having a bad day.

/ It pretty much requires a human to crash a car.
 
2014-05-25 02:22:54 PM  

pedobearapproved: DamnYankees: mjjt: Main limiting factor is not the technology but how fast Google can micromap a location - signposts, curbs etc

Once it becomes really commonplace, it's really going to totally change how our road system works. Easy example is parking - its going to change dramatically, since you no longer need to be able to park near where you are going - your car can drop you off, go to an off-site designated parking area, and then pick you up when you ping it. No more street parking at all.

No more two cars on the freeway going slow that keeps everyone else from going around. No more slowdowns on the freeway when a cop is around. No more slowdowns when there is an accident on the other side of the highway.


This will be one of main reasons for early acceptance of these cars

Traffic will be packed nose to tail so roads will hold 2 or 3 times traffic volume you see today, with major savings in infrastructure costs

Intersections won't need traffic lights - cars will just be switched through as a space is available (close your eyes), again increasing the volume of traffic a road can hold
 
2014-05-25 02:23:05 PM  

pedobearapproved: DamnYankees: mjjt: Main limiting factor is not the technology but how fast Google can micromap a location - signposts, curbs etc

Once it becomes really commonplace, it's really going to totally change how our road system works. Easy example is parking - its going to change dramatically, since you no longer need to be able to park near where you are going - your car can drop you off, go to an off-site designated parking area, and then pick you up when you ping it. No more street parking at all.

No more two cars on the freeway going slow that keeps everyone else from going around. No more slowdowns on the freeway when a cop is around. No more slowdowns when there is an accident on the other side of the highway.


I'm willing to bet that the elimination of stop-start driving on the highways will increase the national GDP by five or six percent all by itself.
 
2014-05-25 02:24:44 PM  

DamnYankees: mjjt: Main limiting factor is not the technology but how fast Google can micromap a location - signposts, curbs etc

Once it becomes really commonplace, it's really going to totally change how our road system works. Easy example is parking - its going to change dramatically, since you no longer need to be able to park near where you are going - your car can drop you off, go to an off-site designated parking area, and then pick you up when you ping it. No more street parking at all.


Heck, I think it's going to be a long time before the driver is not required to be able to take full control of the vehicle. That means we won't see things like the car parking itself for ages - I'd say even that will take decades.
 
2014-05-25 02:25:42 PM  

mjjt: No more slowdowns on the freeway when a cop is around.


Because everyone will always be going at the same slow speed, regardless of whether a cop is around. In other words - will you be able to tell your self-driving car to speed? I don't think you will.
 
2014-05-25 02:27:00 PM  

Tetrazphere: Jument: DamnYankees: Jument: DamnYankees: How long until self-driving cars are not only permitted, but mandated?

On the first, a long time. On the second, a really really long time. But both can't come soon enough IMHO.

How can the first be a long time, when TFA is about how CA is going to permit it this year?

RTFA. This is for testing and requires a $5M bond. This is still a long way from "you can buy and operate a self-driving car in CA".

Not only that, but there's going to be those who see driving as a pastime,  an inalienable right they are entitled to. At least til they get a ticket or into a wreck.

/Also I wonder how the car insurance industry would be effected. Currently they rake in $200 billion in revenue alone.


Insurance companies will be pushing for this. They make their money on the arbitrage between premiums and payouts.

They are already increasing profits on the payout end due to safer cars and pressure on repairers

And they already offer reduced premiums and/or better cover for drivers with black boxes monitoring their driving (IIRC there was a Fark thread a few days ago about a kid who had his car stolen and the thief recorded better driving skills than the owner)
 
2014-05-25 02:27:27 PM  
www.quickmeme.com
 
2014-05-25 02:27:42 PM  

Incontinent_dog_and_monkey_rodeo: pedobearapproved: DamnYankees: mjjt: Main limiting factor is not the technology but how fast Google can micromap a location - signposts, curbs etc

Once it becomes really commonplace, it's really going to totally change how our road system works. Easy example is parking - its going to change dramatically, since you no longer need to be able to park near where you are going - your car can drop you off, go to an off-site designated parking area, and then pick you up when you ping it. No more street parking at all.

No more two cars on the freeway going slow that keeps everyone else from going around. No more slowdowns on the freeway when a cop is around. No more slowdowns when there is an accident on the other side of the highway.

I'm willing to bet that the elimination of stop-start driving on the highways will increase the national GDP by five or six percent all by itself.


True, plus cut down a good share of exhaust fumes.
 
2014-05-25 02:27:55 PM  

mjjt: DamnYankees: How long until self-driving cars are not only permitted, but mandated?

At the present rate of progress, I would guess 2020 - it will start with all major roads  6am to 6pm and steadily expand from that.

Main limiting factor is not the technology but how fast Google can micromap a location - signposts, curbs etc


As far as I know they are actually using machine learning and not micro mapping.
They are teaching the machine to read the road signs.
 
2014-05-25 02:28:22 PM  

mjjt: Intersections won't need traffic lights - cars will just be switched through as a space is available (close your eyes), again increasing the volume of traffic a road can hold


I doubt that. Even train tracks with PTC continue to have lights.

I think there will still be benefits to batching groups of cars traveling in the same direction to go through the light at the same time. But as you approach a light, the cars will know when it will be their turn, and can slow far in advance so that they can maintain as much kinetic energy as possible through the intersection, saving fuel costs.
 
2014-05-25 02:32:26 PM  

Enigmamf: mjjt: No more slowdowns on the freeway when a cop is around.

Because everyone will always be going at the same slow speed, regardless of whether a cop is around. In other words - will you be able to tell your self-driving car to speed? I don't think you will.


They will travel at maximum speed possible - it's in everybody's interest to get you off the road asap

And, in theory at least, no reason why that shouldn't be 100 mph under some circumstances
 
2014-05-25 02:35:09 PM  

Sticky Hands: mjjt: DamnYankees: How long until self-driving cars are not only permitted, but mandated?

At the present rate of progress, I would guess 2020 - it will start with all major roads  6am to 6pm and steadily expand from that.

Main limiting factor is not the technology but how fast Google can micromap a location - signposts, curbs etc

As far as I know they are actually using machine learning and not micro mapping.
They are teaching the machine to read the road signs.


I would have thought that too, but  Atlantic article couple of weeks ago http://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2014/05/all-the-world- a- track-the-trick-that-makes-googles-self-driving-cars-work/370871/
 
2014-05-25 02:35:15 PM  

pedobearapproved: No more two cars on the freeway going slow that keeps everyone else from going around. No more slowdowns speed-ups on the freeway when a cop is not around. No more slowdowns when there is an accident on the other side of the highway.


ftfy
 
2014-05-25 02:39:22 PM  
We won't need speed limits.

Or DUI laws.

Or stop signs.

Or lane markings.

Or roads that "go" in any particular direction.

Or traffic cops.
 
2014-05-25 02:44:17 PM  
Johnny Cab ironically jamming out to Red Barchetta by Rush

www.wearysloth.com
 
2014-05-25 02:50:11 PM  
If Google need to map the entire United States with the precision they used to map Mountain View, they'll just do it.

Not an issue.
 
2014-05-25 02:53:44 PM  
Strangely, California has already been allowing self-driving cars on the road for at least a year.  I rode in Google's a month ago.  The article doesn't make it clear what's changed.  Anyone know?
 
2014-05-25 02:54:32 PM  
The one thing that would most decidedly improve is losing a lane for construction.

There is no technical reason traffic shouldnt flow almost uninterupted at normalish road speeds when there is a lane drop off......

But because people are more interested in getting there in front of the person beside them than they are in how long it actually takes them to get there people cut each other off and bring traffic to a grinding halt and make pit take like an hour longer for themself and everyone on the road to get there because fark you I wanna get there in front of this asshole beside me.

The computers in the Matrix where right, we are parasites.
 
2014-05-25 02:54:59 PM  

mjjt: Enigmamf: mjjt: No more slowdowns on the freeway when a cop is around.

Because everyone will always be going at the same slow speed, regardless of whether a cop is around. In other words - will you be able to tell your self-driving car to speed? I don't think you will.

They will travel at maximum speed possible - it's in everybody's interest to get you off the road asap

And, in theory at least, no reason why that shouldn't be 100 mph under some circumstances


Two words: fuel efficiency.
 
2014-05-25 03:07:24 PM  

DamnYankees: How long until self-driving cars are not only permitted, but mandated?


My dad is terrified of these things and hopes he never has to have one. I tried to explain their benefits and inevitability to him. I think for a lot of older people and for car enthusiasts it's conceptually a bridge too far.

In answer to your question though it's going to be an unbelievably rapid transition once it starts, mandated or not. As soon as a sizable accident data set exists insurance rates will be so dramatically lower for self driving cars, especially for the old and the young, that it will result in rapid near extinction of people driven cars.
 
2014-05-25 03:09:13 PM  
GizmoToy

Strangely, California has already been allowing self-driving cars on the road for at least a year. I rode in Google's a month ago. The article doesn't make it clear what's changed. Anyone know?

No humans in these test cars.  Google got its learner's permit.

This technology is coming on fast.  Give it another decade or less, and you will see it everywhere.

The cool thing is that every autonomous car is also mapping the roads it uses, and sending the data back to Google.  They're getting the high fidelity road models for free.
 
2014-05-25 03:09:48 PM  

Jument: DamnYankees: How long until self-driving cars are not only permitted, but mandated?

On the first, a long time. On the second, a really really long time. But both can't come soon enough IMHO.


On the first, now, in essentially every state.  In our legal system, that which is not prohibited is legal, and I'm not aware of any state that prohibits self-driving cars.  Google has been running these cars on the street in California for years now, and until this legislation no permit was necessary at all.  They have, arguably, made the situation worse for driverless cars.

I'd be amazed if the laws of most states anticipate self-driving cars, and other than parking and red light scameras (which frequently ticket the registered owner, not the driver), they don't anticipate the possibility of a car being capable of a traffic offense on its own.

A human is required to have a license to legally drive a car.  The car itself just has to have an up to date registration to be on the road.  In most states, there is no law stating otherwise.

On the second, hopefully never.  While for most routine trips I wouldn't mind telling the car where to go, sitting back, and surfing Fark, I don't want to ever give up being able to drive for fun.
 
2014-05-25 03:16:51 PM  
This dream might work if they make sure no Chinese parts are ever used. Labor too.
 
2014-05-25 03:17:41 PM  
notatrollorami

In answer to your question though it's going to be an unbelievably rapid transition once it starts, mandated or not. As soon as a sizable accident data set exists insurance rates will be so dramatically lower for self driving cars, especially for the old and the young, that it will result in rapid near extinction of people driven cars.

To err is human.
 
2014-05-25 03:18:21 PM  

DarkVader: Jument: DamnYankees: How long until self-driving cars are not only permitted, but mandated?

On the first, a long time. On the second, a really really long time. But both can't come soon enough IMHO.

On the first, now, in essentially every state.  In our legal system, that which is not prohibited is legal, and I'm not aware of any state that prohibits self-driving cars.  Google has been running these cars on the street in California for years now, and until this legislation no permit was necessary at all.  They have, arguably, made the situation worse for driverless cars.

I'd be amazed if the laws of most states anticipate self-driving cars, and other than parking and red light scameras (which frequently ticket the registered owner, not the driver), they don't anticipate the possibility of a car being capable of a traffic offense on its own.

A human is required to have a license to legally drive a car.  The car itself just has to have an up to date registration to be on the road.  In most states, there is no law stating otherwise.

On the second, hopefully never.  While for most routine trips I wouldn't mind telling the car where to go, sitting back, and surfing Fark, I don't want to ever give up being able to drive for fun.


There are laws against leaving an engine running without a driver and do on that could make driverless cars technically illegal.
 
2014-05-25 03:22:54 PM  

notatrollorami: s soon as a sizable accident data set exists insurance rates will be so dramatically lower for self driving cars


This makes me think the insurance industry might start to lobby against self-driving cars, though. Won't the auto insurance industry largely go out of business, or at least be massively reduced in size, if this is true?

The auto insurance industry is dependent on the existence of accidents.
 
2014-05-25 03:23:26 PM  
If any of the cars get in an accident, it has to be reported within 10 days. Additionally, researchers have to report if the car's self-driving functions are turned off for safety reasons.

This is a hoax article, right?
 
2014-05-25 03:24:07 PM  
Everybody from taxi drivers to insurance companies to traffic cops are going to be against these things.

Intrinsically safe vehicles are terrible for business.
 
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