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(Daily Mail)   Statistical study of gambling shows that winning streaks are real and not selective memories by gamblers afraid to count their losses. Your angry response based on the Stats 101 class you took in 1994 can be left in the comments to the right   (dailymail.co.uk) divider line 70
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1697 clicks; posted to Geek » on 16 May 2014 at 12:26 PM (1 year ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2014-05-16 09:32:07 AM  
I've been to Vegas twice. I'm a small time gambler, but the first time I made about $60. Played craps, blackjack, and poker. Of the three I was most successful in poker (which is really not gambling if your opponents are dumb) , then craps, and I lost a bunch of money playing blackjack.

Second time, I lost $200 playing mostly blackjack and craps.

I've played a casino, two cruise ships, and online poker, and won money every time I played craps.

I do pretty OK with craps. I've made more money with craps than lost. Blackjack sucks balls, it's too hard to card count and know what you're doing, you have to play perfect, and you have to stay sober the whole time (and where's the fun in that, you're in friggin Vegas).

Bet the pass line and put money behind your pass bet. All money behind the line is even money. If you want to be a whale, go to Casino Royale and put 20x odds on craps bet line (they reduced it from 100x odds, it used to be the best place to play craps in all of Vegas).

Poker is a skill game. If you're skilled, play poker. If you want to gamble, play craps. Just don't do any of those stupid doubling your money things.
 
2014-05-16 09:39:09 AM  
Winning streaks ARE real.  So are losing streaks.
 
2014-05-16 10:00:48 AM  
I thought it was understood that streaks were a natural phenomenon.  Hell, Carl Sagan goes on about them at length in "The Demon Haunted World".
 
2014-05-16 11:46:56 AM  

mysticcat: Winning streaks ARE real.  So are losing streaks.


This and that.
 What streaks are not is predictive -- you can't determine how long a streak will last, and thereby maximize outcomes (or minimize losses) while it's active.
 
2014-05-16 11:54:22 AM  
A friend and I went to Vegas for my 21st birthday. At 12:01AM on my birthday, I hit a craps table at Mandalay Bay. Had no idea what I was doing, but everyone there was so excited that it was my birthday I seemed to be doing pretty damn good and winning some money. Walked off the craps table about $200 ahead.

Then I went to the Luxor and lost it all. Haven't touched that place since.

Then I got really drunk playing Blackjack until 3AM at another casino. There was a Russian guy next to me who kept giving me money to play hands because I was apparently a good luck charm for him. Ended up hitting Blackjack once, and immediately puked in a trashcan. Dealer asked if I was okay, I said yep. Hit another Blackjack and immediately puked again. That's when the pit boss came by and sent me to time-out in my room until I sobered up. All I remember was walking away and hearing the Russian guy argue with the pit boss that they were kicking out his good luck charm.
 
2014-05-16 12:25:08 PM  
Betting against the house guarantees you will lose over the long run.  If you do not lose over the long run, the casino will accuse you of cheating and sue you.  So there really is no point whatsoever in visiting a casino, unless you just enjoy watching desperate people take losses they can't afford.
 
2014-05-16 12:30:42 PM  

Marcus Aurelius: Betting against the house guarantees you will lose over the long run.  If you do not lose over the long run, the casino will accuse you of cheating and sue you.  So there really is no point whatsoever in visiting a casino, unless you just enjoy watching desperate people take losses they can't afford.


What you do is count cards (but not too well) for a little bit at each casino.  The point is to make just enough at each place to wind up with a killing yet still fly under the radar.

/do pretty well just remembering how many big and little cards have been played
 
2014-05-16 12:33:18 PM  
I thought winning streaks were just data sets limited so as to produce a winning streak.

/Just throw out the outliers. You know, the $50,000 I lost before and after I won that $4000 in six rolls.
 
2014-05-16 12:36:51 PM  
Bet the don't pass line in craps, run a 3 point don't come molly system. You're essentially betting everyone else will lose, so be prepared for anger but f*ck them, they could bet with the house, too.
 
2014-05-16 12:43:42 PM  

Marcus Aurelius: Betting against the house guarantees you will lose over the long run.  If you do not lose over the long run, the casino will accuse you of cheating and sue you.  So there really is no point whatsoever in visiting a casino, unless you just enjoy watching desperate people take losses they can't afford.


I have friends who just consider it entertainment money for a night out. In Vegas, you're generally getting free drinks, so if you limit yourself to $100 or something, it's not that much different than going out to a bar, and entertainment is included.

If you can't stop yourself from spending more than you planned though, then you're screwed, and gambling probably shouldn't be your entertainment of choice.
 
2014-05-16 12:52:20 PM  
So you're saying I'm due?
 
2014-05-16 12:57:22 PM  
Of course streaks are real. They are just unpredictable and unpredictive, and therefore useless. If you just threw 6 heads in a row with a fair coin what are the chances that you throw tails next? Still 50/50.
 
2014-05-16 12:58:43 PM  
TFA seems to be less about the statistical anomaly of a "streak" and more about player behavior.  I mean, it's right there at the top.

"Once a person wins a bet, they are increasingly likely to win again because they seek out safer bets, claim scientists."
 
2014-05-16 01:05:11 PM  
Only really played craps a few times. Was at a table where a girl rolled for 45 mins before she crapped out. I was playing with red and green and walked away with about $4,000. Old guy next to me was playing with blacks. I only assume he made $40,000-$50,000.
The floor was going NUTS after about 10 mins. People were trying there best to get on the table, but there was not even elbow room left at that point.
(Went home with $800. Gave the rest back to the house and strippers.)
 
2014-05-16 01:06:32 PM  
What the fark does a "safe" bet even mean?

Betting on Floyd mayweather is a pretty safe bet, but you have to pay 10-1.
 
2014-05-16 01:09:18 PM  

van1ty: What the fark does a "safe" bet even mean?

Betting on Floyd mayweather is a pretty safe bet, but you have to pay 10-1.


Bet that the next heavyweight fight is fixed.  That's a sure bet
 
2014-05-16 01:16:47 PM  
In any sufficiently random distribution series, streaks are inevitable.

In fact, it would be weirder for streaks NOT to happen, and hence indicative of rigged or non-random behavior.
 
2014-05-16 01:27:50 PM  

mysticcat: Winning streaks ARE real.  So are losing streaks.


Time for me to read the article because surely it couldnt be this simple.
 
2014-05-16 01:29:12 PM  

Marcus Aurelius: Betting against the house guarantees you will lose over the long run.  If you do not lose over the long run, the casino will accuse you of cheating and sue you.  So there really is no point whatsoever in visiting a casino, unless you just enjoy watching desperate people take losses they can't afford.


Gambling is fun sometimes. I've enjoyed it since I was 23 or so. Now I'm 48. I think I've walked through the door to a casino maybe 10-12 times in 25 years. Ponies maybe half a dozen times. I don't doubt I'm upside down but the amount would be utterly insignificant over that time period. I've probably blown five times that amount on shiat movies and bad restaurants. YMMV of course.
 
2014-05-16 01:29:18 PM  
Every time I go to the casino, I play craps ($10 min) with a $100 bankroll.  I play the minimum on the passline, match the bet behind the passline, and play the field if the point is a 5, 6 or 8 (that last part is just an illogical personal habit).  With very, very few exceptions, I either break even, or leave a couple hundred bucks ahead.  And, really, breaking even is really coming out ahead, if you count in comp'ed drinks.

Aside from video poker, craps has the best odds in the entire casino if you play it right.  I guess you're technically supposed to max out your odds bet, but, yeah, I can't exactly afford to put a hundred dollars on a single roll.
 
2014-05-16 01:30:47 PM  

CalvinMorallis: I guess you're technically supposed to max out your odds bet, but, yeah, I can't exactly afford to put a hundred dollars on a single roll.


Why not? Sounds like you win every time you go. Seems to me you can't afford NOT to max out.
 
2014-05-16 01:37:56 PM  

Bareefer Obonghit: Bet the don't pass line in craps, run a 3 point don't come molly system. You're essentially betting everyone else will lose, so be prepared for anger but f*ck them, they could bet with the house, too.


Oh I loathe people like you.  It's typically about a 150 year old little Asian dude that will shuffle up and drop the mattress on the don't come.   He doubles up and then slinks away into the night with his ill gotten gains.  In my mind he ends up getting a train run on him by the dumpster behind the Piggily Wiggily and slowly bleeds to death from the massive rectal tearing.
 
2014-05-16 01:38:40 PM  
This is fairly basic statistics n stuff. You`ll get bunches of good numbers and bunches of bad numbers and then mixes in various proportions (but nobody brags about those `Oh yeah, it`s been average for ages`)

No, you remember the blocks of wins and the blocks of losses (but less so)

Past performance can`t usually be used to predict future results though.

Myself, I only bet when I`m not gambling...
 
2014-05-16 01:40:03 PM  

Ishkur: In any sufficiently random distribution series, streaks are inevitable.

In fact, it would be weirder for streaks NOT to happen, and hence indicative of rigged or non-random behavior.


Yep.

I like this cartoon:

www.random.org

A streak of six numbers would be expected sooner than most people would think.
 
2014-05-16 01:41:27 PM  

SirDigbyChickenCaesar: Bareefer Obonghit: Bet the don't pass line in craps, run a 3 point don't come molly system. You're essentially betting everyone else will lose, so be prepared for anger but f*ck them, they could bet with the house, too.

Oh I loathe people like you.  It's typically about a 150 year old little Asian dude that will shuffle up and drop the mattress on the don't come.   He doubles up and then slinks away into the night with his ill gotten gains.  In my mind he ends up getting a train run on him by the dumpster behind the Piggily Wiggily and slowly bleeds to death from the massive rectal tearing.


That's very specific...  also Fark is not your personal erotica site
 
2014-05-16 01:43:56 PM  

SirDigbyChickenCaesar: Bareefer Obonghit: Bet the don't pass line in craps, run a 3 point don't come molly system. You're essentially betting everyone else will lose, so be prepared for anger but f*ck them, they could bet with the house, too.

Oh I loathe people like you.  It's typically about a 150 year old little Asian dude that will shuffle up and drop the mattress on the don't come.   He doubles up and then slinks away into the night with his ill gotten gains.  In my mind he ends up getting a train run on him by the dumpster behind the Piggily Wiggily and slowly bleeds to death from the massive rectal tearing.


I don't mind the guy who bets don't-pass, who just kind of keeps his head down and nonchalantly rakes his winnings in.  Yeah, he's benefiting from my losing money, but at least he's not being a dick about it.

What I can't stand is the loudmouth, usually a drunk-ass college-aged kid, who yells out "WOOOO!" when he wins on don't-pass and then expects the people beside him to high five him.
 
2014-05-16 01:46:49 PM  

CalvinMorallis: What I can't stand is the loudmouth, usually a drunk-ass college-aged kid, who yells out "WOOOO!" when he wins on don't-pass and then expects the people beside him to high five him.


I think the entire table should be allowed to kick that guy in the nuts.
 
2014-05-16 01:47:04 PM  
More likely to win does not equal likely to win.

Or, the scientists could have said "people who avoid risk less likely to lose money". Because that IS what they're saying.
 
2014-05-16 01:50:42 PM  
My friend has an unbeatable system for video poker.

He plays at the bars that comp your beers as long as your playing. He'll pick one that's moderately crowded so the bartender is somewhat busy.


He only plays when the bartender is looking. And orders beer after beer.


He may be a bit behind on the game but if you factor in the amount he gets to drink for free he's WAY ahead.
 
2014-05-16 01:59:15 PM  
I only remember two things from my stats class.

Dat.  Ass.

It was a statistical anomaly.
 
2014-05-16 02:06:46 PM  
Play Pai Gow. It's super slow and you can sit for hours with the same stack of chips.

In Canada, they have a '3 Card Poker' game that basically pays 2:1 on any pair(as the lowest priced winning hand). Every time you lose, double your previous bet on the next round.
 
2014-05-16 02:08:39 PM  

MagicianNamedGob: Of course streaks are real. They are just unpredictable and unpredictive, and therefore useless. If you just threw 6 heads in a row with a fair coin what are the chances that you throw tails next? Still 50/50.


As we say in D&D - the dice have no memory.
 
2014-05-16 02:10:50 PM  

SquiggsIN: "Gambling is a tax for people who are bad at math."

Even if you have a system, (which you don't) there isn't a game in existence that will give you even odds.  No, I've never bought a lottery ticket in my life.

/csb, i'll go away so you kids can have fun


tsb (true story bro): video poker actually has odds slightly in the favor of the player, if played optimally.  Most people, though, A) don't play optimally, as it involves seemingly-counterintuitive plays like throwing away small, but winning hands; and B) can't afford to play long enough for the odds to really play out.
 
2014-05-16 02:48:17 PM  

Marcus Aurelius: Betting against the house guarantees you will lose over the long run.


not true, if you include comps in winnings

which is where roulette comes into play - slow, you can throw big bets out there spread all over the board and generally break even, and they'll comp you as if you were playing the same bet/hand in blackjack
 
2014-05-16 03:15:33 PM  

CalvinMorallis: tsb (true story bro): video poker actually has odds slightly in the favor of the player, if played optimally.  Most people, though, A) don't play optimally, as it involves seemingly-counterintuitive plays like throwing away small, but winning hands; and B) can't afford to play long enough for the odds to really play out.


This is not universally true.

It depends on the pay out of certain hands, which varies from machine to machine.
 
2014-05-16 03:54:41 PM  

SquiggsIN: "Gambling is a tax for people who are bad at math."

Even if you have a system, (which you don't) there isn't a game in existence that will give you even odds.  No, I've never bought a lottery ticket in my life.

/csb, i'll go away so you kids can have fun



Not true.  Playing the field in Craps is 50/50.

I have always walked away from the Craps table ahead.
 
2014-05-16 04:00:19 PM  

van1ty: What the fark does a "safe" bet even mean?

Betting on Floyd mayweather is a pretty safe bet, but you have to pay 10-1.


Exactly; all they're counting in the article is win/loss. Basically, they're suggesting that people on a winning streak tend to bet favorites more often than people on losing streaks. Obviously, that doesn't mean they're gambling any better.
 
2014-05-16 04:01:13 PM  
Craps can be fun...   I rolled 5 points my second time shooting.

Poker is the only game to play at a casino if you are looking to actually win over the long term, though.  It's the only game where you can influence the odds and your opponent's strategy: every other game is statistically guaranteed to lose you money in the long term because the odds and/or house strategy are fixed.  If the odds weren't against you in the long run, the casino would lose money overall, and would cease to exist.  Casinos make money in poker by basically charging rent or taxes (5% or so, and usually with a max)... much more honest than the oh-so-carefully-balanced-but-slightly-tilted odds the rest of the games are, IMO.

The worst are the "extras" they have on the table... like blackjack having a spot to play "poker bets" where you get paid if the dealer's upcard and your two cards form a poker hand.  They all have worse odds than the base game does.

"Hey, we aren't making enough money on these tables..."
"I know, lets add extra prop bets that have worse odds, but give them exciting names!"

Take that to the extreme, and that's how a craps table got to be as large at it is.
 
2014-05-16 04:06:25 PM  
I have been to Reno about a dozen times. I quit going after 2004, I think, because they started paying out in tickets instead of coins. I only played certain type of dollar slots. I came out ahead gambling every time. However if I counted the gas, food and hotel at Reno and motels during the trip there, I was probably $300 down.
 
2014-05-16 04:08:59 PM  

mongbiohazard: MagicianNamedGob: Of course streaks are real. They are just unpredictable and unpredictive, and therefore useless. If you just threw 6 heads in a row with a fair coin what are the chances that you throw tails next? Still 50/50.

As we say in D&D - the dice have no memory.


No, but they do have bias and with a file you can shave the dice such that you can introduce bias.
 
2014-05-16 04:30:19 PM  

MaxTigar: SquiggsIN: "Gambling is a tax for people who are bad at math."

Even if you have a system, (which you don't) there isn't a game in existence that will give you even odds.  No, I've never bought a lottery ticket in my life.

/csb, i'll go away so you kids can have fun


Not true.  Playing the field in Craps is 50/50.

I have always walked away from the Craps table ahead.


No, it isn't.

There are 36 possible rolls.  The field pays on 2, 3, 4, 9, 10, 11, and 12, with 2:1 on 2 and 12 and 1:1 on the others.

There's one way to roll 2 with a double payout so 3 * 1/36 = 3/36 EV.
Same with 12, so another 3/36 EV.
There's 2 ways roll 3, 2 ways to roll 11, 3 ways to roll 4, and 4 ways to roll 9, 3 ways to roll 10 = 14 total ways at 1:1, so 28/36 EV.
There's 20 other losing rolls that give you 0 EV.

Add them up, and you only get an EV of 34/36.  So, on average, for every dollar you bet on the field, you lose about 5 cents.

Things get a little better if they pay *triple* on 2 or 12: your EV goes up to 35/36, and you lose only about 3 cents on the dollar.

For it to be an even-odds bet, the casino would have to pay triple on both 2 and 12, and they don't do that.
 
2014-05-16 04:36:30 PM  
Dr. Hildegarde Lanstrom's luck virus has always seemed oddly plausible!
 
2014-05-16 04:40:48 PM  
Dice don't have memory.
 
2014-05-16 04:46:48 PM  

INeedAName: Every time you lose, double your previous bet on the next round.


Not feasible, for the sane fact that losing streaks can be exponentially catastrophic.
 
2014-05-16 05:12:57 PM  

draypresct: Dice don't have memory.


They remember if you keep them up your ass.  It's all yes sir and I'm get on it sir and your'e going to win sir or back up they go.
 
2014-05-16 05:18:23 PM  
Man Fark is so fortunate. We've got all the biggest penises in the world, all the people who have zero debt and fantastic credit, all the people with 150+ IQs, and today I learned we also have all the people who never lose when they're gambling. What an amazing coincidence that all those statistical anamolies happen to frequent the same site.
 
2014-05-16 05:27:42 PM  

Smeggy Smurf: draypresct: Dice don't have memory.

They remember if you keep them up your ass.  It's all yes sir and I'm get on it sir and your'e going to win sir or back up they go.


That's one way to get a long-tailed distribution.
 
2014-05-16 05:32:36 PM  
My brother works behind the scenes at Caesar's LV and is a semi-professional gambler. He told me that he was heavily influenced by 3 statistical books ages ago that greatly bumped his percentages. I wish I could remember those titles right now. Anyways according to him poker is really the only game with any skill to it and the more skilled you are the more you will win. He loves when the rodeo comes to town. And absolutely hates it when a clueless newbie screws up hand after hand in tournaments. Dumb asses are the bane to a pros game.

One night we were sitting a casino bar, I'm playing video poker and getting free drinks, he pays for his drinks citing something about statistics again. Since I'm not much of a gambler and more of a drinker I asked which table games I should play. He mention black jack and ma jong as having a nice slow losing of your money if you bet reasonably well. A little later he pays his bar tab and I cash out the $80 I had just won at video poker while talking.
 
2014-05-16 05:33:24 PM  

Slaves2Darkness: mongbiohazard: MagicianNamedGob: Of course streaks are real. They are just unpredictable and unpredictive, and therefore useless. If you just threw 6 heads in a row with a fair coin what are the chances that you throw tails next? Still 50/50.

As we say in D&D - the dice have no memory.

No, but they do have bias and with a file you can shave the dice such that you can introduce bias.


Yes, cheating is a way to get more favorable results in D&D.
 
2014-05-16 05:34:34 PM  
Leave it to the Daily Fail to announce to the world that:

1. Winning streaks happen.
2. Better odds result in better winning streaks.
 
2014-05-16 05:39:28 PM  

js34603: Man Fark is so fortunate. We've got all the biggest penises in the world, all the people who have zero debt and fantastic credit, all the people with 150+ IQs, and today I learned we also have all the people who never lose when they're gambling. What an amazing coincidence that all those statistical anamolies happen to frequent the same site.


To be fair, the site has millions of active users. Stands to reason that, statistically speaking, a sufficient minority of them are going to be experts on any given subject or topic. And they will post in threads on those topics because they know a lot about them, so it's not that unusual.

Fark also has honest-to-goodness PhDs in everything from neurobiology to astrophysics to climatology, and guess what: They post in those threads.

/well, except economics threads
//and sports threads
///everyone in those threads is an armchair basement-dwelling studman
 
2014-05-16 06:03:52 PM  

Smeggy Smurf: Marcus Aurelius: Betting against the house guarantees you will lose over the long run.  If you do not lose over the long run, the casino will accuse you of cheating and sue you.  So there really is no point whatsoever in visiting a casino, unless you just enjoy watching desperate people take losses they can't afford.

What you do is count cards (but not too well) for a little bit at each casino.  The point is to make just enough at each place to wind up with a killing yet still fly under the radar.

/do pretty well just remembering how many big and little cards have been played


That's all you need to do. Hell, that's all the MIT team did- they were just organized enough to have one person making low bets and keeping a running count on the table, with another coming to the tables with favorable odds and throwing big bets. You don't need to track every card, just the trends.

Ishkur: INeedAName: Every time you lose, double your previous bet on the next round.

Not feasible, for the sane fact that losing streaks can be exponentially catastrophic.


Not if you have the reserves to handle them. The strategy is explicitly designed to completely negate losing streaks while giving you small but steady returns on winning streaks. If you double every time you lose, you get all the money you lost on the losing streak back when you get your next win. It might take a while to get there, but when you do win, you get the whole pile you lost back. Because you will win again eventually. When you get on a winning streak, you're not doubling, so with a series of small, positive outcomes you get a decent return. Of course, you'll lose on 0 and 00 regardless, so that will take a toll. Basically something like 53% of losing and 47% of winning, so over the long term, you've just got to make enough to cover the 5.5% House take. Whether you do that or not depends on the length of the streaks you get, but streaks are real, and you'll probably get enough longish ones that beating the House take is doable. Mathematically it works, but we have a psychological bias toward risk aversion (we remember losses MUCH more intensely than victories), so it's actually very hard for humans to be willing to continuously bet more during a losing streak. There's also a ridiculous amount of volatility during those losing streaks, so you really have to have huge reserves and a lot of faith. The strategy usually fails when people run out of reserves during a losing streak and then lose faith, and wind up quitting on a loss. People also want to keep going if they're on a winning streak- that whole reinforcement thing- where they really need to be quitting immediately after a win. The main problem with it is psychological. There are strong cognitive biases at play, and alcohol makes it very hard to overcome them. Which is why casinos give you lots of it- when you give into your cognitive biases at any game, they make lots of money. And when the rational part of your brain is busy belting Eye of the Tiger...
 
2014-05-16 06:05:08 PM  

SafetyThird: My brother works behind the scenes at Caesar's LV and is a semi-professional gambler. He told me that he was heavily influenced by 3 statistical books ages ago that greatly bumped his percentages. I wish I could remember those titles right now. Anyways according to him poker is really the only game with any skill to it and the more skilled you are the more you will win. He loves when the rodeo comes to town. And absolutely hates it when a clueless newbie screws up hand after hand in tournaments. Dumb asses are the bane to a pros game.

One night we were sitting a casino bar, I'm playing video poker and getting free drinks, he pays for his drinks citing something about statistics again. Since I'm not much of a gambler and more of a drinker I asked which table games I should play. He mention black jack and ma jong as having a nice slow losing of your money if you bet reasonably well. A little later he pays his bar tab and I cash out the $80 I had just won at video poker while talking.


You'll probably enjoy this article.
 
2014-05-16 06:12:44 PM  

cptjeff: Not if you have the reserves to handle them


That requires infinite wealth which no one has.

Martingale will eventually bankrupt you. It is inevitable.
 
2014-05-16 06:32:43 PM  

Ishkur: cptjeff: Not if you have the reserves to handle them

That requires infinite wealth which no one has.

Martingale will eventually bankrupt you. It is inevitable.


That would only be the case if streaks went on forever. They don't. If I remember my professor's asides in stats correctly, the longest they usually go in a 50/50 game is about 7. It's stunningly rare for them to go more. At a $5 minimum, you're topping off at around $320. Hit a 0 or 00 in a streak and you may have to go 8, which caps you at $640. The max at a $5 table is usually something like $1000, so if you go more than 8 losses, you're farked. But that's exceedingly rare.

That means you're bringing $2000 or so and starting your bets at $5. The trouble is that most people bring $300 to the table. If you're most people and doing that, you absolutely will get cleaned out.
 
2014-05-16 06:46:10 PM  

cptjeff: That would only be the case if streaks went on forever.


Wrong, because it's also the case when tables have betting limits, which they do. This is done specifically to thwart Martingale, so your ability to recoup your losses is destroyed.

If you're playing at a $10 blackjack table with a $1000 limit, your losing streak only needs to be 8 hands before you can no longer bet enough to recover the loss.
 
2014-05-16 06:48:13 PM  

cptjeff: SafetyThird: My brother works behind the scenes at Caesar's LV and is a semi-professional gambler. He told me that he was heavily influenced by 3 statistical books ages ago that greatly bumped his percentages. I wish I could remember those titles right now. Anyways according to him poker is really the only game with any skill to it and the more skilled you are the more you will win. He loves when the rodeo comes to town. And absolutely hates it when a clueless newbie screws up hand after hand in tournaments. Dumb asses are the bane to a pros game.

One night we were sitting a casino bar, I'm playing video poker and getting free drinks, he pays for his drinks citing something about statistics again. Since I'm not much of a gambler and more of a drinker I asked which table games I should play. He mention black jack and ma jong as having a nice slow losing of your money if you bet reasonably well. A little later he pays his bar tab and I cash out the $80 I had just won at video poker while talking.

You'll probably enjoy this article.


Very nice read. Coincidentally my brother used to work for Party Poker at one time and now works TWSOP side today. We once had a conversation about how hard it is to keep the ratio of fish to sharks so that everything worked out optimally.
 
2014-05-16 06:56:47 PM  

cptjeff: That would only be the case if streaks went on forever.


Streaks don't have to go on forever. Anything beyond a dozen losses or so is adequate to bankrupt everyone but the 1%. And that streak happens all the time.
 
2014-05-16 08:20:26 PM  

Ishkur: cptjeff: Not if you have the reserves to handle them

That requires infinite wealth which no one has.

Martingale will eventually bankrupt you. It is inevitable.


I'm just astounded that anyone could think Martingale is a good idea.
 
2014-05-16 08:32:33 PM  
In blackjack, assuming you hit or stand with intelligence, your best option to accept the losing streaks and bet to minimize the damage so you can survive to the winning streak and make money

When you are winning, your bet progression and winnings are:
bet / keep (take out of the bet)
5     0
10   5  (you have now made back your initial bet)
15   5
25   10
40  30
50  50

If you are losing, your next bet is ALWAYS $5.  If you lose 6 hands in a row, you've lost $30.  Compared to my example of six wins in a row netting $95.  Not big profits, but if you are patient, you can do ok.  If your streak goes longer than six hands, you get another fifty bucks each time.  Some people will keep increasing their bet, which has the potential of getting huge, but you are bucking the odds if you do that.

This is not a sure fire system.  A losing streak can go on for a long time or you won't get a long enough winning streak to get far enough for the bet to build up.

/queue someone pointing out I screwed up my math somewhere.  I'm working and posting, so didn't really check my work.
 
2014-05-16 09:20:48 PM  
online bets made by 776 people on sports such as horse-racing and football,

sports such as horse-racing and football,


sports

... for anyone not getting it, all that's being proven here is that statistically people that can reliably pick the winner of a game that  is determined mostly by skill and not chance several times probably have the required knowledge and acumen to do it a few more times (or if they've coincidentally picked a 'favorite' to bet on that happens to be good enough to consistently win, that favorite will statistically continue to win).

This study, or at least the parts presented in TFA, says absolutely nothing whatsoever about hot hands/winning streaks, especially in 'real' gambling (i.e. games of pure chance).  Possibly this is journalist stupid, and the paper itself actually has something else that addresses the issue, but I doubt it.
 
2014-05-16 09:47:58 PM  
Meh, of course there are both winning streaks and losing streaks.  People remember the best and worse of their times.

Luck, however, now that does exist and cannot be quantified or measured.

I don't have it, but my daughter does.  In the last 20 years, she has easily won several hundreds of random drawings, raffles, walk in the door at random #, random contests, sweepstakes, jackpots, phone-ins, competitions, you name it.  She doesn't call in thousands of times, or enter thousands of contests.  She just has that sort of luck that in any sort of event near her person, she is that "lucky" random person.  The thing is, it's happened so many countless times, it's no longer random.  She could fall into a pile of manure and come out covered in roses.  I love it when she makes the Vegas trip with us.
 
2014-05-16 11:37:48 PM  
So you're saying I could keep flipping a coin and it may come up with the same side multiple times in a row rather than alternating between heads and tails? Unpossible.
 
2014-05-17 12:19:19 AM  

desertgeek: CalvinMorallis: What I can't stand is the loudmouth, usually a drunk-ass college-aged kid, who yells out "WOOOO!" when he wins on don't-pass and then expects the people beside him to high five him.

I think the entire table should be allowed to kick that guy in the nuts.


I'd give him a high five. Life will kick him down soon enough.
 
2014-05-17 02:29:12 AM  

BKITU: cptjeff: That would only be the case if streaks went on forever.

Wrong, because it's also the case when tables have betting limits, which they do. This is done specifically to thwart Martingale, so your ability to recoup your losses is destroyed.

If you're playing at a $10 blackjack table with a $1000 limit, your losing streak only needs to be 8 hands before you can no longer bet enough to recover the loss.


Casinos should love Martingale, no matter what the limit.  You're making increasingly huge bets with a house edge to win back your initial single bet.  The casino doesn't lose anything but small bets until you hit a losing streak, and then you lose everything when you finally bust.  Does this sound sane to you?
 
2014-05-17 03:44:35 AM  

Farker Soze: BKITU: cptjeff: That would only be the case if streaks went on forever.

Wrong, because it's also the case when tables have betting limits, which they do. This is done specifically to thwart Martingale, so your ability to recoup your losses is destroyed.

If you're playing at a $10 blackjack table with a $1000 limit, your losing streak only needs to be 8 hands before you can no longer bet enough to recover the loss.

Casinos should love Martingale, no matter what the limit.  You're making increasingly huge bets with a house edge to win back your initial single bet.  The casino doesn't lose anything but small bets until you hit a losing streak, and then you lose everything when you finally bust.  Does this sound sane to you?


Infinite House Rule:  if the House has an infinite amount of money (and you don't), and you bet an infinite number of times, you will lose, even if your odds on each bet is over 50%.  That should be obvious.

But you can actually show this works for finite numbers as well.  You can win for an hour, or a day, or a week, but sooner or later your luck will run out.  The house can survive a long run of bad luck, and you can't.

Oh, and for the person who said otherwise earlier: if a coin comes up heads the first five times you flip it, then on the next flip it's more likely to be heads.  In real life, there's a significant chance that any coin or die is weighted, even if it's just a sloppy cut.   "Assuming that it's equal" is for math textbooks.
 
2014-05-17 04:38:13 AM  

js34603: Man Fark is so fortunate. We've got all the biggest penises in the world, all the people who have zero debt and fantastic credit, all the people with 150+ IQs, and today I learned we also have all the people who never lose when they're gambling. What an amazing coincidence that all those statistical anamolies happen to frequent the same site.


Thanks for writing my bio for me. I'll buy you a specialty craft beer after my next $100,000 Vegas trip/model orgy.
 
2014-05-17 05:00:40 AM  

OgreMagi: In blackjack, assuming you hit or stand with intelligence, your best option to accept the losing streaks and bet to minimize the damage so you can survive to the winning streak and make money

When you are winning, your bet progression and winnings are:
bet / keep (take out of the bet)
5     0
10   5  (you have now made back your initial bet)
15   5
25   10
40  30
50  50

If you are losing, your next bet is ALWAYS $5.  If you lose 6 hands in a row, you've lost $30.  Compared to my example of six wins in a row netting $95.  Not big profits, but if you are patient, you can do ok.  If your streak goes longer than six hands, you get another fifty bucks each time.  Some people will keep increasing their bet, which has the potential of getting huge, but you are bucking the odds if you do that.

This is not a sure fire system.  A losing streak can go on for a long time or you won't get a long enough winning streak to get far enough for the bet to build up.

/queue someone pointing out I screwed up my math somewhere.  I'm working and posting, so didn't really check my work.


Thanks for this. Something to try next time instead of doubling down on losses and leaving in tears
 
2014-05-17 07:13:28 AM  

js34603: Man Fark is so fortunate. We've got all the biggest penises in the world, all the people who have zero debt and fantastic credit, all the people with 150+ IQs, and today I learned we also have all the people who never lose when they're gambling. What an amazing coincidence that all those statistical anamolies happen to frequent the same site.


That's why I hang out here. Hell, I wouldn't be in illuistrious company like this in any conceivable iteration of my real life.
We're all "Alpha as f**k" on Fark.com.
 
2014-05-17 12:01:09 PM  

wildbill0712: Only really played craps a few times. Was at a table where a girl rolled for 45 mins before she crapped out. I was playing with red and green and walked away with about $4,000. Old guy next to me was playing with blacks. I only assume he made $40,000-$50,000.
The floor was going NUTS after about 10 mins. People were trying there best to get on the table, but there was not even elbow room left at that point.
(Went home with $800. Gave the rest back to the house and strippers.)


You met Donald Sterling?
 
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