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(Daily Mail)   Statistical study of gambling shows that winning streaks are real and not selective memories by gamblers afraid to count their losses. Your angry response based on the Stats 101 class you took in 1994 can be left in the comments to the right   (dailymail.co.uk) divider line 71
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1645 clicks; posted to Geek » on 16 May 2014 at 12:26 PM (27 weeks ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2014-05-16 09:32:07 AM  
I've been to Vegas twice. I'm a small time gambler, but the first time I made about $60. Played craps, blackjack, and poker. Of the three I was most successful in poker (which is really not gambling if your opponents are dumb) , then craps, and I lost a bunch of money playing blackjack.

Second time, I lost $200 playing mostly blackjack and craps.

I've played a casino, two cruise ships, and online poker, and won money every time I played craps.

I do pretty OK with craps. I've made more money with craps than lost. Blackjack sucks balls, it's too hard to card count and know what you're doing, you have to play perfect, and you have to stay sober the whole time (and where's the fun in that, you're in friggin Vegas).

Bet the pass line and put money behind your pass bet. All money behind the line is even money. If you want to be a whale, go to Casino Royale and put 20x odds on craps bet line (they reduced it from 100x odds, it used to be the best place to play craps in all of Vegas).

Poker is a skill game. If you're skilled, play poker. If you want to gamble, play craps. Just don't do any of those stupid doubling your money things.
 
2014-05-16 09:39:09 AM  
Winning streaks ARE real.  So are losing streaks.
 
2014-05-16 10:00:48 AM  
I thought it was understood that streaks were a natural phenomenon.  Hell, Carl Sagan goes on about them at length in "The Demon Haunted World".
 
2014-05-16 11:46:56 AM  

mysticcat: Winning streaks ARE real.  So are losing streaks.


This and that.
 What streaks are not is predictive -- you can't determine how long a streak will last, and thereby maximize outcomes (or minimize losses) while it's active.
 
2014-05-16 11:54:22 AM  
A friend and I went to Vegas for my 21st birthday. At 12:01AM on my birthday, I hit a craps table at Mandalay Bay. Had no idea what I was doing, but everyone there was so excited that it was my birthday I seemed to be doing pretty damn good and winning some money. Walked off the craps table about $200 ahead.

Then I went to the Luxor and lost it all. Haven't touched that place since.

Then I got really drunk playing Blackjack until 3AM at another casino. There was a Russian guy next to me who kept giving me money to play hands because I was apparently a good luck charm for him. Ended up hitting Blackjack once, and immediately puked in a trashcan. Dealer asked if I was okay, I said yep. Hit another Blackjack and immediately puked again. That's when the pit boss came by and sent me to time-out in my room until I sobered up. All I remember was walking away and hearing the Russian guy argue with the pit boss that they were kicking out his good luck charm.
 
2014-05-16 12:25:08 PM  
Betting against the house guarantees you will lose over the long run.  If you do not lose over the long run, the casino will accuse you of cheating and sue you.  So there really is no point whatsoever in visiting a casino, unless you just enjoy watching desperate people take losses they can't afford.
 
2014-05-16 12:30:42 PM  

Marcus Aurelius: Betting against the house guarantees you will lose over the long run.  If you do not lose over the long run, the casino will accuse you of cheating and sue you.  So there really is no point whatsoever in visiting a casino, unless you just enjoy watching desperate people take losses they can't afford.


What you do is count cards (but not too well) for a little bit at each casino.  The point is to make just enough at each place to wind up with a killing yet still fly under the radar.

/do pretty well just remembering how many big and little cards have been played
 
2014-05-16 12:33:18 PM  
I thought winning streaks were just data sets limited so as to produce a winning streak.

/Just throw out the outliers. You know, the $50,000 I lost before and after I won that $4000 in six rolls.
 
2014-05-16 12:36:51 PM  
Bet the don't pass line in craps, run a 3 point don't come molly system. You're essentially betting everyone else will lose, so be prepared for anger but f*ck them, they could bet with the house, too.
 
2014-05-16 12:43:42 PM  

Marcus Aurelius: Betting against the house guarantees you will lose over the long run.  If you do not lose over the long run, the casino will accuse you of cheating and sue you.  So there really is no point whatsoever in visiting a casino, unless you just enjoy watching desperate people take losses they can't afford.


I have friends who just consider it entertainment money for a night out. In Vegas, you're generally getting free drinks, so if you limit yourself to $100 or something, it's not that much different than going out to a bar, and entertainment is included.

If you can't stop yourself from spending more than you planned though, then you're screwed, and gambling probably shouldn't be your entertainment of choice.
 
2014-05-16 12:52:20 PM  
So you're saying I'm due?
 
2014-05-16 12:57:22 PM  
Of course streaks are real. They are just unpredictable and unpredictive, and therefore useless. If you just threw 6 heads in a row with a fair coin what are the chances that you throw tails next? Still 50/50.
 
2014-05-16 12:58:43 PM  
TFA seems to be less about the statistical anomaly of a "streak" and more about player behavior.  I mean, it's right there at the top.

"Once a person wins a bet, they are increasingly likely to win again because they seek out safer bets, claim scientists."
 
2014-05-16 01:05:11 PM  
Only really played craps a few times. Was at a table where a girl rolled for 45 mins before she crapped out. I was playing with red and green and walked away with about $4,000. Old guy next to me was playing with blacks. I only assume he made $40,000-$50,000.
The floor was going NUTS after about 10 mins. People were trying there best to get on the table, but there was not even elbow room left at that point.
(Went home with $800. Gave the rest back to the house and strippers.)
 
2014-05-16 01:06:32 PM  
What the fark does a "safe" bet even mean?

Betting on Floyd mayweather is a pretty safe bet, but you have to pay 10-1.
 
2014-05-16 01:09:18 PM  

van1ty: What the fark does a "safe" bet even mean?

Betting on Floyd mayweather is a pretty safe bet, but you have to pay 10-1.


Bet that the next heavyweight fight is fixed.  That's a sure bet
 
2014-05-16 01:16:47 PM  
In any sufficiently random distribution series, streaks are inevitable.

In fact, it would be weirder for streaks NOT to happen, and hence indicative of rigged or non-random behavior.
 
2014-05-16 01:27:50 PM  

mysticcat: Winning streaks ARE real.  So are losing streaks.


Time for me to read the article because surely it couldnt be this simple.
 
2014-05-16 01:29:12 PM  

Marcus Aurelius: Betting against the house guarantees you will lose over the long run.  If you do not lose over the long run, the casino will accuse you of cheating and sue you.  So there really is no point whatsoever in visiting a casino, unless you just enjoy watching desperate people take losses they can't afford.


Gambling is fun sometimes. I've enjoyed it since I was 23 or so. Now I'm 48. I think I've walked through the door to a casino maybe 10-12 times in 25 years. Ponies maybe half a dozen times. I don't doubt I'm upside down but the amount would be utterly insignificant over that time period. I've probably blown five times that amount on shiat movies and bad restaurants. YMMV of course.
 
2014-05-16 01:29:18 PM  
Every time I go to the casino, I play craps ($10 min) with a $100 bankroll.  I play the minimum on the passline, match the bet behind the passline, and play the field if the point is a 5, 6 or 8 (that last part is just an illogical personal habit).  With very, very few exceptions, I either break even, or leave a couple hundred bucks ahead.  And, really, breaking even is really coming out ahead, if you count in comp'ed drinks.

Aside from video poker, craps has the best odds in the entire casino if you play it right.  I guess you're technically supposed to max out your odds bet, but, yeah, I can't exactly afford to put a hundred dollars on a single roll.
 
2014-05-16 01:30:47 PM  

CalvinMorallis: I guess you're technically supposed to max out your odds bet, but, yeah, I can't exactly afford to put a hundred dollars on a single roll.


Why not? Sounds like you win every time you go. Seems to me you can't afford NOT to max out.
 
2014-05-16 01:37:56 PM  

Bareefer Obonghit: Bet the don't pass line in craps, run a 3 point don't come molly system. You're essentially betting everyone else will lose, so be prepared for anger but f*ck them, they could bet with the house, too.


Oh I loathe people like you.  It's typically about a 150 year old little Asian dude that will shuffle up and drop the mattress on the don't come.   He doubles up and then slinks away into the night with his ill gotten gains.  In my mind he ends up getting a train run on him by the dumpster behind the Piggily Wiggily and slowly bleeds to death from the massive rectal tearing.
 
2014-05-16 01:38:40 PM  
This is fairly basic statistics n stuff. You`ll get bunches of good numbers and bunches of bad numbers and then mixes in various proportions (but nobody brags about those `Oh yeah, it`s been average for ages`)

No, you remember the blocks of wins and the blocks of losses (but less so)

Past performance can`t usually be used to predict future results though.

Myself, I only bet when I`m not gambling...
 
2014-05-16 01:40:03 PM  

Ishkur: In any sufficiently random distribution series, streaks are inevitable.

In fact, it would be weirder for streaks NOT to happen, and hence indicative of rigged or non-random behavior.


Yep.

I like this cartoon:

www.random.org

A streak of six numbers would be expected sooner than most people would think.
 
2014-05-16 01:41:27 PM  

SirDigbyChickenCaesar: Bareefer Obonghit: Bet the don't pass line in craps, run a 3 point don't come molly system. You're essentially betting everyone else will lose, so be prepared for anger but f*ck them, they could bet with the house, too.

Oh I loathe people like you.  It's typically about a 150 year old little Asian dude that will shuffle up and drop the mattress on the don't come.   He doubles up and then slinks away into the night with his ill gotten gains.  In my mind he ends up getting a train run on him by the dumpster behind the Piggily Wiggily and slowly bleeds to death from the massive rectal tearing.


That's very specific...  also Fark is not your personal erotica site
 
2014-05-16 01:43:56 PM  

SirDigbyChickenCaesar: Bareefer Obonghit: Bet the don't pass line in craps, run a 3 point don't come molly system. You're essentially betting everyone else will lose, so be prepared for anger but f*ck them, they could bet with the house, too.

Oh I loathe people like you.  It's typically about a 150 year old little Asian dude that will shuffle up and drop the mattress on the don't come.   He doubles up and then slinks away into the night with his ill gotten gains.  In my mind he ends up getting a train run on him by the dumpster behind the Piggily Wiggily and slowly bleeds to death from the massive rectal tearing.


I don't mind the guy who bets don't-pass, who just kind of keeps his head down and nonchalantly rakes his winnings in.  Yeah, he's benefiting from my losing money, but at least he's not being a dick about it.

What I can't stand is the loudmouth, usually a drunk-ass college-aged kid, who yells out "WOOOO!" when he wins on don't-pass and then expects the people beside him to high five him.
 
2014-05-16 01:46:49 PM  

CalvinMorallis: What I can't stand is the loudmouth, usually a drunk-ass college-aged kid, who yells out "WOOOO!" when he wins on don't-pass and then expects the people beside him to high five him.


I think the entire table should be allowed to kick that guy in the nuts.
 
2014-05-16 01:47:04 PM  
More likely to win does not equal likely to win.

Or, the scientists could have said "people who avoid risk less likely to lose money". Because that IS what they're saying.
 
2014-05-16 01:50:42 PM  
My friend has an unbeatable system for video poker.

He plays at the bars that comp your beers as long as your playing. He'll pick one that's moderately crowded so the bartender is somewhat busy.


He only plays when the bartender is looking. And orders beer after beer.


He may be a bit behind on the game but if you factor in the amount he gets to drink for free he's WAY ahead.
 
2014-05-16 01:59:15 PM  
I only remember two things from my stats class.

Dat.  Ass.

It was a statistical anomaly.
 
2014-05-16 02:06:46 PM  
Play Pai Gow. It's super slow and you can sit for hours with the same stack of chips.

In Canada, they have a '3 Card Poker' game that basically pays 2:1 on any pair(as the lowest priced winning hand). Every time you lose, double your previous bet on the next round.
 
2014-05-16 02:08:39 PM  

MagicianNamedGob: Of course streaks are real. They are just unpredictable and unpredictive, and therefore useless. If you just threw 6 heads in a row with a fair coin what are the chances that you throw tails next? Still 50/50.


As we say in D&D - the dice have no memory.
 
2014-05-16 02:10:50 PM  

SquiggsIN: "Gambling is a tax for people who are bad at math."

Even if you have a system, (which you don't) there isn't a game in existence that will give you even odds.  No, I've never bought a lottery ticket in my life.

/csb, i'll go away so you kids can have fun


tsb (true story bro): video poker actually has odds slightly in the favor of the player, if played optimally.  Most people, though, A) don't play optimally, as it involves seemingly-counterintuitive plays like throwing away small, but winning hands; and B) can't afford to play long enough for the odds to really play out.
 
2014-05-16 02:48:17 PM  

Marcus Aurelius: Betting against the house guarantees you will lose over the long run.


not true, if you include comps in winnings

which is where roulette comes into play - slow, you can throw big bets out there spread all over the board and generally break even, and they'll comp you as if you were playing the same bet/hand in blackjack
 
2014-05-16 03:15:33 PM  

CalvinMorallis: tsb (true story bro): video poker actually has odds slightly in the favor of the player, if played optimally.  Most people, though, A) don't play optimally, as it involves seemingly-counterintuitive plays like throwing away small, but winning hands; and B) can't afford to play long enough for the odds to really play out.


This is not universally true.

It depends on the pay out of certain hands, which varies from machine to machine.
 
2014-05-16 03:54:41 PM  

SquiggsIN: "Gambling is a tax for people who are bad at math."

Even if you have a system, (which you don't) there isn't a game in existence that will give you even odds.  No, I've never bought a lottery ticket in my life.

/csb, i'll go away so you kids can have fun



Not true.  Playing the field in Craps is 50/50.

I have always walked away from the Craps table ahead.
 
2014-05-16 04:00:19 PM  

van1ty: What the fark does a "safe" bet even mean?

Betting on Floyd mayweather is a pretty safe bet, but you have to pay 10-1.


Exactly; all they're counting in the article is win/loss. Basically, they're suggesting that people on a winning streak tend to bet favorites more often than people on losing streaks. Obviously, that doesn't mean they're gambling any better.
 
2014-05-16 04:01:13 PM  
Craps can be fun...   I rolled 5 points my second time shooting.

Poker is the only game to play at a casino if you are looking to actually win over the long term, though.  It's the only game where you can influence the odds and your opponent's strategy: every other game is statistically guaranteed to lose you money in the long term because the odds and/or house strategy are fixed.  If the odds weren't against you in the long run, the casino would lose money overall, and would cease to exist.  Casinos make money in poker by basically charging rent or taxes (5% or so, and usually with a max)... much more honest than the oh-so-carefully-balanced-but-slightly-tilted odds the rest of the games are, IMO.

The worst are the "extras" they have on the table... like blackjack having a spot to play "poker bets" where you get paid if the dealer's upcard and your two cards form a poker hand.  They all have worse odds than the base game does.

"Hey, we aren't making enough money on these tables..."
"I know, lets add extra prop bets that have worse odds, but give them exciting names!"

Take that to the extreme, and that's how a craps table got to be as large at it is.
 
2014-05-16 04:06:25 PM  
I have been to Reno about a dozen times. I quit going after 2004, I think, because they started paying out in tickets instead of coins. I only played certain type of dollar slots. I came out ahead gambling every time. However if I counted the gas, food and hotel at Reno and motels during the trip there, I was probably $300 down.
 
2014-05-16 04:08:59 PM  

mongbiohazard: MagicianNamedGob: Of course streaks are real. They are just unpredictable and unpredictive, and therefore useless. If you just threw 6 heads in a row with a fair coin what are the chances that you throw tails next? Still 50/50.

As we say in D&D - the dice have no memory.


No, but they do have bias and with a file you can shave the dice such that you can introduce bias.
 
2014-05-16 04:30:19 PM  

MaxTigar: SquiggsIN: "Gambling is a tax for people who are bad at math."

Even if you have a system, (which you don't) there isn't a game in existence that will give you even odds.  No, I've never bought a lottery ticket in my life.

/csb, i'll go away so you kids can have fun


Not true.  Playing the field in Craps is 50/50.

I have always walked away from the Craps table ahead.


No, it isn't.

There are 36 possible rolls.  The field pays on 2, 3, 4, 9, 10, 11, and 12, with 2:1 on 2 and 12 and 1:1 on the others.

There's one way to roll 2 with a double payout so 3 * 1/36 = 3/36 EV.
Same with 12, so another 3/36 EV.
There's 2 ways roll 3, 2 ways to roll 11, 3 ways to roll 4, and 4 ways to roll 9, 3 ways to roll 10 = 14 total ways at 1:1, so 28/36 EV.
There's 20 other losing rolls that give you 0 EV.

Add them up, and you only get an EV of 34/36.  So, on average, for every dollar you bet on the field, you lose about 5 cents.

Things get a little better if they pay *triple* on 2 or 12: your EV goes up to 35/36, and you lose only about 3 cents on the dollar.

For it to be an even-odds bet, the casino would have to pay triple on both 2 and 12, and they don't do that.
 
2014-05-16 04:36:30 PM  
Dr. Hildegarde Lanstrom's luck virus has always seemed oddly plausible!
 
2014-05-16 04:40:48 PM  
Dice don't have memory.
 
2014-05-16 04:46:48 PM  

INeedAName: Every time you lose, double your previous bet on the next round.


Not feasible, for the sane fact that losing streaks can be exponentially catastrophic.
 
2014-05-16 05:12:57 PM  

draypresct: Dice don't have memory.


They remember if you keep them up your ass.  It's all yes sir and I'm get on it sir and your'e going to win sir or back up they go.
 
2014-05-16 05:18:23 PM  
Man Fark is so fortunate. We've got all the biggest penises in the world, all the people who have zero debt and fantastic credit, all the people with 150+ IQs, and today I learned we also have all the people who never lose when they're gambling. What an amazing coincidence that all those statistical anamolies happen to frequent the same site.
 
2014-05-16 05:27:42 PM  

Smeggy Smurf: draypresct: Dice don't have memory.

They remember if you keep them up your ass.  It's all yes sir and I'm get on it sir and your'e going to win sir or back up they go.


That's one way to get a long-tailed distribution.
 
2014-05-16 05:32:36 PM  
My brother works behind the scenes at Caesar's LV and is a semi-professional gambler. He told me that he was heavily influenced by 3 statistical books ages ago that greatly bumped his percentages. I wish I could remember those titles right now. Anyways according to him poker is really the only game with any skill to it and the more skilled you are the more you will win. He loves when the rodeo comes to town. And absolutely hates it when a clueless newbie screws up hand after hand in tournaments. Dumb asses are the bane to a pros game.

One night we were sitting a casino bar, I'm playing video poker and getting free drinks, he pays for his drinks citing something about statistics again. Since I'm not much of a gambler and more of a drinker I asked which table games I should play. He mention black jack and ma jong as having a nice slow losing of your money if you bet reasonably well. A little later he pays his bar tab and I cash out the $80 I had just won at video poker while talking.
 
2014-05-16 05:33:24 PM  

Slaves2Darkness: mongbiohazard: MagicianNamedGob: Of course streaks are real. They are just unpredictable and unpredictive, and therefore useless. If you just threw 6 heads in a row with a fair coin what are the chances that you throw tails next? Still 50/50.

As we say in D&D - the dice have no memory.

No, but they do have bias and with a file you can shave the dice such that you can introduce bias.


Yes, cheating is a way to get more favorable results in D&D.
 
2014-05-16 05:34:34 PM  
Leave it to the Daily Fail to announce to the world that:

1. Winning streaks happen.
2. Better odds result in better winning streaks.
 
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