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(KATU)   The needle on the housing market craziness meter officially reaches "batshiat nuts", and is heading for "2005"   (katu.com) divider line 69
    More: Asinine, Seattle, housing market, folklores  
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10119 clicks; posted to Business » on 15 May 2014 at 2:07 PM (10 weeks ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2014-05-15 11:32:39 AM
The asking price for the home was $397,500 but Winningham said exactly how much it sold for could not be disclosed.

Could not be disclosed, my ass. In Minnesota, that's all public record.  Washington looks like the same, it's just that it hasn't been updated yet.
 
2014-05-15 02:09:27 PM
$397K? I live in Toronto. That gets you a spot to park a Fiat 500. All the paper millionaires I know can't afford to sell if they want to buy something within 100 kms. of here.
 
2014-05-15 02:12:00 PM
Fine by me, going up here, people are selling and others are putting up new mcmansions.  I feel bad for my retiree neighbor but for myself if this house hits double what I paid for it I'm selling and moving to the country.  Buy low sell high yeehaw.
 
2014-05-15 02:13:16 PM
830-square-foot is not really that tiny.  I've seen a lot smaller.  Tumbleweed houses for example are about 250 square feet.  And there are even smaller ones out there.
 
2014-05-15 02:13:44 PM
830-square-foot house? Divide by approx.10, right? That's 83 square meters? Wow. You can live very well in that space if you're on your own.
 
2014-05-15 02:15:13 PM
40% of new buys are all cash buys. Bubble time!
 
2014-05-15 02:15:32 PM
830-square-foot house

built in 1925

The asking price for the home was $397,500


So that's roughly $482 per square foot for a 90-year old house, that's smaller than a lot of apartments. I don't pretend to be familiar with the Seattle housing market, but that seems high. Anyone from the area care to weigh in?
 
2014-05-15 02:15:59 PM
I live in 265 feet squared.  Meh.  800 would make me feel HUGE.
 
2014-05-15 02:16:01 PM
That price was probably severely elevated because the house is a local landmark and owning it would a mark of status.
 
2014-05-15 02:17:20 PM
my home value went up something like 20% last year. all my friends are getting into real estate. time to start planning which stocks to short... again. :(
 
2014-05-15 02:17:35 PM

Coming on a Bicycle: 830-square-foot house? Divide by approx.10, right? That's 83 square meters? Wow. You can live very well in that space if you're on your own.


I actually thought that as well. For a single person, it really is a pragmatic use of space. People like their big mansions but they all end up spending their time in the master bedroom, the kitchen, and the living room. As do we all. I would be totally comfortable by myself in a home that size.

For $400,0000? Not so much. Even in my city where 1200sqft in a decent community is at minimum $350,000.
 
2014-05-15 02:18:35 PM

chasd00: my home value went up something like 20% last year. all my friends are getting into real estate. time to start planning which stocks to short... again. :(


Missed your window. Tech stocks took big hits recently.
 
2014-05-15 02:18:45 PM
here in ft worth the news is abuzz about prices in older neighborhoods...the assessments on LAND are skyrocketing, but the assessments on the HOUSES on that land are dropping. apparently due to people coming in, buying the house, tearing it down, building a new one...the land is far more valuable than the house.

we went north of ft worth, bought a brand new house in a new neighborhood
 
2014-05-15 02:19:53 PM

Joe Peanut: 830-square-foot is not really that tiny.  I've seen a lot smaller.  Tumbleweed houses for example are about 250 square feet.  And there are even smaller ones out there.


my family ( wife + 2 boys(4 and 2) ) and I live in about 1200 square feet. It's a little crowded, poor wife shares a bathroom with 3 guys but it's working out ok so far.
 
2014-05-15 02:20:11 PM
Maybe the fact that Mt Rainier now has more seismic activity than Mt St. Helen's will put a damper on house prices in Seattle. http://www.pnsn.org/volcanoes/mount-rainier
 
2014-05-15 02:20:59 PM

MyRandomName: 40% of new buys are all cash buys. Bubble time!


Tell me about it - I had a hell of a time buying a nice place last summer. I'd even go nearly 10 percent over the asking price and still get a smackdown from a cash buyer. That's why... it sucked to be me last summer. I did learn that cash buyers don't have to go through inspections and all kinds of bank bullshiat. That and a farkton of house flipping idjits makes things pretty hot in the market.
 
2014-05-15 02:21:21 PM
Probably would have gotten more if that bottle of wine was full.
 
2014-05-15 02:22:19 PM

chasd00: my home value went up something like 20% last year. all my friends are getting into real estate. time to start planning which stocks to short... again. :(



4.bp.blogspot.com

Two houses almost exactly the same as mine got listed this week in my neighborhood. I bought mine 16 months ago and both of these listings are 20 to 30% more. This goddamn bubble is going to pop again.
 
2014-05-15 02:22:46 PM

chasd00: Joe Peanut: 830-square-foot is not really that tiny.  I've seen a lot smaller.  Tumbleweed houses for example are about 250 square feet.  And there are even smaller ones out there.

my family ( wife + 2 boys(4 and 2) ) and I live in about 1200 square feet. It's a little crowded, poor wife shares a bathroom with 3 guys but it's working out ok so far.


huh...we have, i can't remember exactly how much space...~1200 sqft...wife and me, 13 year old girl, 4 year old boy, dog, 2 turtles...3 bed 2 bath, 2 car garage, small-but-usable yard, fenced in back/sides...it's pretty much the perfect size for us...no wasted space, but also not sitting on top of each other
 
2014-05-15 02:24:11 PM

bungle_jr: here in ft worth the news is abuzz about prices in older neighborhoods...the assessments on LAND are skyrocketing, but the assessments on the HOUSES on that land are dropping. apparently due to people coming in, buying the house, tearing it down, building a new one...the land is far more valuable than the house.

we went north of ft worth, bought a brand new house in a new neighborhood


I live in North Oak Cliff over in Dallas. I really like North Fort Worth but it's so far from the rest of DFW. Oak Cliff is pretty nice now that Bishop Arts and the neighborhood in general are coming around. All we need is DISD to get fixed ( year right ) and North Oak Cliff would be perfect. As it stands now, you have to add private school tuition into you budget to even think of living in Dallas proper. DISD is just that bad.
 
2014-05-15 02:24:35 PM

Carn: Fine by me, going up here, people are selling and others are putting up new mcmansions.  I feel bad for my retiree neighbor but for myself if this house hits double what I paid for it I'm selling and moving to the country.  Buy low sell high yeehaw.


After you move to the country, are you going to eat a lot of peaches?
 
2014-05-15 02:25:11 PM

mjohnson71: chasd00: my home value went up something like 20% last year. all my friends are getting into real estate. time to start planning which stocks to short... again. :(




Two houses almost exactly the same as mine got listed this week in my neighborhood. I bought mine 16 months ago and both of these listings are 20 to 30% more. This goddamn bubble is going to pop again.


Hoping for it. Fiance wants a bigger house before next kid. My guess is a year or so. Houses all being bought by investors here.
 
2014-05-15 02:25:40 PM
We sold our house in Toronto that was no bigger than this house for 300K a few years ago. That house is OVER 800 Sq Feet, so it is a liveable space for sure. We had 3 of us in a 3 storey 850 sq ft house on 3 levels ...

Our house was by far the cheapest in the area, which is now averaging 750K. There are other areas where it's much worse.

A pie shaped house in Seattle for 400K? A bit of a funky space, but not unreasonable.
 
2014-05-15 02:26:26 PM

Zizzowop: Carn: Fine by me, going up here, people are selling and others are putting up new mcmansions.  I feel bad for my retiree neighbor but for myself if this house hits double what I paid for it I'm selling and moving to the country.  Buy low sell high yeehaw.

After you move to the country, are you going to eat a lot of peaches?


fark yeah

They come in a can, they were put there by a man.

/that man could be me
 
2014-05-15 02:26:50 PM

mjohnson71: chasd00: my home value went up something like 20% last year. all my friends are getting into real estate. time to start planning which stocks to short... again. :(


[4.bp.blogspot.com image 624x352]

Two houses almost exactly the same as mine got listed this week in my neighborhood. I bought mine 16 months ago and both of these listings are 20 to 30% more. This goddamn bubble is going to pop again.


Well, Obama saved our butts us last time, and he still has nearly 2 years left. I'm not worried.
 
2014-05-15 02:28:03 PM

Coming on a Bicycle: 830-square-foot house? Divide by approx.10, right? That's 83 square meters? Wow. You can live very well in that space if you're on your own.


It's about 77 square meters, but that's close enough. Oddly, just slightly larger than the surface area of the average human lung.
 
2014-05-15 02:30:58 PM
I've lived in smaller places, but I require at least 1200 Sq. ft. for all my stuff these days, and for that price, here in colorado, I could easily get a 4,000 sq. ft. home.
 
2014-05-15 02:31:43 PM

Thomas Hertl's Playoff Beard: mjohnson71: chasd00: my home value went up something like 20% last year. all my friends are getting into real estate. time to start planning which stocks to short... again. :(


[4.bp.blogspot.com image 624x352]

Two houses almost exactly the same as mine got listed this week in my neighborhood. I bought mine 16 months ago and both of these listings are 20 to 30% more. This goddamn bubble is going to pop again.

Well, Obama saved our butts us last time, and he still has nearly 2 years left. I'm not worried.


If I were Hillary I wouldn't run just for this reason.

Between the stock and housing markets growing at unsustainable levels I don't see how we're not heading for a Great Recession 2.0.

/so say we all
 
2014-05-15 02:32:39 PM

chasd00: bungle_jr: here in ft worth the news is abuzz about prices in older neighborhoods...the assessments on LAND are skyrocketing, but the assessments on the HOUSES on that land are dropping. apparently due to people coming in, buying the house, tearing it down, building a new one...the land is far more valuable than the house.

we went north of ft worth, bought a brand new house in a new neighborhood

I live in North Oak Cliff over in Dallas. I really like North Fort Worth but it's so far from the rest of DFW. Oak Cliff is pretty nice now that Bishop Arts and the neighborhood in general are coming around. All we need is DISD to get fixed ( year right ) and North Oak Cliff would be perfect. As it stands now, you have to add private school tuition into you budget to even think of living in Dallas proper. DISD is just that bad.


everytime we watch the news and hear about disd, it's bad news. we just say we're glad we didn't end up in dallas (the job i got, it was possible i could've been hired in 1 of 2 dallas offices, or the ft worth office, which i got)

where we live can't even be considered north fw, really...we're in wise county, just off 287 (decatur highway) between newark and rhome. but we have everything we need within about 20 minutes of driving, so not bad for "country" living in the metroplex. not as convenient as euless, where we moved there from, but we still like it better than texarkana, where we moved from originally
 
2014-05-15 02:33:35 PM
I heart bubbles...
 
2014-05-15 02:35:25 PM

bungle_jr: here in ft worth the news is abuzz about prices in older neighborhoods...the assessments on LAND are skyrocketing, but the assessments on the HOUSES on that land are dropping. apparently due to people coming in, buying the house, tearing it down, building a new one...the land is far more valuable than the house.

we went north of ft worth, bought a brand new house in a new neighborhood


Certain DC suburbs have been that way for years.  Land that close, but with brick houses from the 50's on them.  Some are even advertised lot first, then house.
 
2014-05-15 02:36:56 PM
As a currently underwater homeowner, I'm actually very happy about this. According to the latest listings/sales list from my realtor, I'm basically at break-even.

The wife finishes up her degree over the summer, and we're looking to move once she gets settled into a full-time job in her field (and before the kid starts school). Our two-year plan is basically "use my salary to pay the mortgage and bills, stash away everything she brings home, use that to pay down the mortgage and hope the sales prices meet us somewhere in the middle."

/Been in the house 10 years
//Bought it for ~40k under market value at the time, so we weren't in as bad a shape as we could've been.
 
2014-05-15 02:41:10 PM

Coming on a Bicycle: 830-square-foot house? Divide by approx.10, right? That's 83 square meters? Wow. You can live very well in that space if you're on your own.


I've lived in military housing that was smaller.  A 750 square foot 2 bedroom house built prior to WW2.  A year later brand new housing was made available.  The officers were pissed that enlisted got first dibs.
 
2014-05-15 02:42:10 PM
I'd love for my house to appreciate a bit.

It's value has recovered, but I'm not quite there yet to ditch PMI, and I am actually able to do it because my loan originated before they changed the rules.

If I do an FHA refi, I lose the ability to ditch PMI, which since last year has to be carried for the life of the loan.
 
2014-05-15 02:50:27 PM

MyRandomName: 40% of new buys are all cash buys. Bubble time!


Don't know the source of your number but don't doubt it.  I would find it hard to believe that cash buys are happening from a largely underemployed middle class.  Are these investors?  Overseas?  Bankers thinking they're still buying on the low side and can turn a profit?  Any stats on that?
 
2014-05-15 02:52:09 PM
A house built on spite.......that's what I call a solid foundation.
 
2014-05-15 02:53:24 PM
This stuff kills me.  A good part of the financial crisis was caused by credit being too cheap, which caused the ridiculous run-up in housing prices.  The bubble burst, as we all know, and the fallout was all over the place, it almost took down the agencies etc...
Nowadays the Fed's busy keeping credit artificially even cheaper than it was in the early 00s by printing billions of dollars a month (they're also killing future housing demand as a nice side-benefit) - but that is slowly ending.  So far, mortgage rates have stayed very low (they're currently at a 6-month low).  But some people (myself included) think the low rates are themselves a bubble, and that end is not going to be pretty.   That's when the housing market will get hosed - at least temporarily.   If the economy craps out due to a housing crash caused by rising rates - gee, whatever will the Fed do?
I give it another 4-6 months until you see rates start heading up, the bond market is so distorted and 'spolied' on cheap credit these days that it's going to take a sea change in market psyche to turn the worm.
 
2014-05-15 02:54:49 PM

stpauler: The asking price for the home was $397,500 but Winningham said exactly how much it sold for could not be disclosed.

Could not be disclosed, my ass. In Minnesota, that's all public record.  Washington looks like the same, it's just that it hasn't been updated yet.


There are several non disclosure states, though I do not recollect whether Washington is among them.
 
2014-05-15 02:57:40 PM

bungle_jr: here in ft worth the news is abuzz about prices in older neighborhoods...the assessments on LAND are skyrocketing, but the assessments on the HOUSES on that land are dropping. apparently due to people coming in, buying the house, tearing it down, building a new one...the land is far more valuable than the house.

we went north of ft worth, bought a brand new house in a new neighborhood


Where? I'm a real estate appraiser and I live north of Fort Worth.
 
2014-05-15 02:58:57 PM

Marshmallow Jones: This stuff kills me.  A good part of the financial crisis was caused by credit being too cheap, which caused the ridiculous run-up in housing prices.  The bubble burst, as we all know, and the fallout was all over the place, it almost took down the agencies etc...
Nowadays the Fed's busy keeping credit artificially even cheaper than it was in the early 00s by printing billions of dollars a month (they're also killing future housing demand as a nice side-benefit) - but that is slowly ending.  So far, mortgage rates have stayed very low (they're currently at a 6-month low).  But some people (myself included) think the low rates are themselves a bubble, and that end is not going to be pretty.   That's when the housing market will get hosed - at least temporarily.   If the economy craps out due to a housing crash caused by rising rates - gee, whatever will the Fed do?
I give it another 4-6 months until you see rates start heading up, the bond market is so distorted and 'spolied' on cheap credit these days that it's going to take a sea change in market psyche to turn the worm.


i don't know all the economics of it...i'm smart, but not with that crap. all i know is that in 2006/2007 my first wife and i were looking at houses, and i was pre-approved for up to $120k. i made a little over HALF what i make now at the time, and i don't think my wife was working at that particular time. i knew there was NO WAY i could afford anything over about $80k, but the realtors were pushing us toward these $100k+ places...i just said "nope, can't afford it" and told my wife something to the effect of "shiat's about to go down hard if idiots are taking these loans on places they can't afford".
 
2014-05-15 03:08:59 PM

bungle_jr: rhome


I'd really like to live out that way at some point for my boys. Is it taking off West of 35 as much as it is East? When I was in HS Roanoke was nothing.. like nothing. Now it's a bustling little suburb.

for any farkers looking to move to DFW, North Fort Worth and North Dallas is where all the action is these days, you can't really go wrong buying in those areas.
 
2014-05-15 03:09:26 PM

notatrollorami: bungle_jr: here in ft worth the news is abuzz about prices in older neighborhoods...the assessments on LAND are skyrocketing, but the assessments on the HOUSES on that land are dropping. apparently due to people coming in, buying the house, tearing it down, building a new one...the land is far more valuable than the house.

we went north of ft worth, bought a brand new house in a new neighborhood

Where? I'm a real estate appraiser and I live north of Fort Worth.


287N, on the southbound side, about 1/2 way between the Newark (Avondale-Haslet) and Rhome exits
 
2014-05-15 03:13:39 PM

Valiente: $397K? I live in Toronto. That gets you a spot to park a Fiat 500. All the paper millionaires I know can't afford to sell if they want to buy something within 100 kms. of here.




I know, they are flooding to Hamilton. The tiny houses on the west end that were barely big enough to be two car garages are now selling for 500K. A 3 storey row house is now going for 800K. It's just, plain nuts. Even on the east end near the factories are starting to go for an average of 350K; places that people would not be caught spitting on just 5 years ago. Everything along the 403 is plain nuts.
 
2014-05-15 03:14:06 PM

chasd00: bungle_jr: rhome

I'd really like to live out that way at some point for my boys. Is it taking off West of 35 as much as it is East? When I was in HS Roanoke was nothing.. like nothing. Now it's a bustling little suburb.

for any farkers looking to move to DFW, North Fort Worth and North Dallas is where all the action is these days, you can't really go wrong buying in those areas.


roanoke is where my wife works

west of 35w, north of 820, is STARTING to get built up. the new costco opened at 35w and n tarrant pkwy friday...right next to a growing housing (and later retail/dining) center. but right now the vast majority of stuff is on the east side of 35w

haslet got a walmart at the avondale-haslet exit on 287n in october (technically ft worth, actually, but it's listed as the "haslet" walmart), and now they are building stuff around it
 
Ant
2014-05-15 03:14:50 PM

Sin_City_Superhero: 830-square-foot house

built in 1925

The asking price for the home was $397,500

So that's roughly $482 per square foot for a 90-year old house, that's smaller than a lot of apartments. I don't pretend to be familiar with the Seattle housing market, but that seems high. Anyone from the area care to weigh in?


The Montlake area of Seattle, where this house is located, is pretty expensive. Doesn't surprise me.
 
2014-05-15 03:15:46 PM

Astorix: Valiente: $397K? I live in Toronto. That gets you a spot to park a Fiat 500. All the paper millionaires I know can't afford to sell if they want to buy something within 100 kms. of here.

I know, they are flooding to Hamilton. The tiny houses on the west end that were barely big enough to be two car garages are now selling for 500K. A 3 storey row house is now going for 800K. It's just, plain nuts. Even on the east end near the factories are starting to go for an average of 350K; places that people would not be caught spitting on just 5 years ago. Everything along the 403 is plain nuts.


This shiat can't continue.
 
2014-05-15 03:31:58 PM

mjohnson71: This shiat can't continue.


Yes it can.

Increased urbanization + not enough new housing + Chinese investment/houses as store of value + increased dependency on mass transit* == higher housing prices and longer commutes.

Palo Alto has 80K jobs and 65K residents.  And then Mountain View has 75K residents, and a daytime population of 100K.  So just between those 2 cities (using a fairly standard "workforce is half the population"), you need to import 110K people every morning.   We don't know how to do that.  Which means that it's going to cost you an extra 3-400K to be within an hour's drive of work.  (Seriously, a coworker is in Cupertino and he's 60 minutes, and my boss is in Saratoga and he's 75 minutes.  And then we moved offices, and just added 20 minutes to their commutes while still being in Palo Alto).

And that's ignoring SF proper.  Assume a skyscraper holds 10K workers.   Using 2.5 people per household and the half workforce, that's 8K houses and 10K cars.  Where do you put that?  Scale that up to Midtown NYC with a couple hundred skyscrapers.  Where do you put them all?

* Look, I like mass transit.  It's just slow and requires that everyone pack into really tiny areas within walking distance of the stops.  Cars let you sprawl out, which supports the whole "everyone gets a house" thing.

/Build more housing.  Do it, do it, do it.
 
2014-05-15 03:48:32 PM
Whar inflation whar?
 
2014-05-15 03:50:04 PM

Sin_City_Superhero: 830-square-foot house

built in 1925

The asking price for the home was $397,500

So that's roughly $482 per square foot for a 90-year old house, that's smaller than a lot of apartments. I don't pretend to be familiar with the Seattle housing market, but that seems high. Anyone from the area care to weigh in?


I'm told realty increases in price with age. I'm not really sure if it's true, or if so why.
 
2014-05-15 03:54:55 PM

mjohnson71: chasd00: my home value went up something like 20% last year. all my friends are getting into real estate. time to start planning which stocks to short... again. :(




Two houses almost exactly the same as mine got listed this week in my neighborhood. I bought mine 16 months ago and both of these listings are 20 to 30% more. This goddamn bubble is going to pop again.


If that means houses will be reasonably priced, bring it on.

/was (still am) thinking about getting a house but the type of house I'd want is no where in range for me.
//no, not looking for a "mansion"
 
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