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(CNN)   Ukrainian separatists defy one side of Putin's mouth   (cnn.com) divider line 14
    More: Unlikely, Vladimir Putin, Russians, Ukrainian, Organization for Security, Ukraine, Cooperation in Europe, Arseniy Yatsenyuk, Western Allies  
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1064 clicks; posted to Politics » on 08 May 2014 at 3:03 PM (20 weeks ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



14 Comments   (+0 »)
   
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2014-05-08 12:29:26 PM
Oh well he tried.  Maybe if he stated they wouldn't get any support from Russia if they don't postpone they would listen.

/Or he could rescind the secret order for them to do it anyway.
 
2014-05-08 03:13:28 PM
I read this in a Thomas Friedman column so take it as you will, but If Putin was so strong why are his supporters wearing masks?

It seems like his position and what he is trying is from a place of complete weakness and only projecting strength but with hollow weights.
 
2014-05-08 03:14:38 PM
weknowmemes.com

While I'm at might as well get a headstart on the derps.....

global3.memecdn.com
 
2014-05-08 04:07:26 PM

JolobinSmokin: I read this in a Thomas Friedman column so take it as you will, but If Putin was so strong why are his supporters wearing masks?

It seems like his position and what he is trying is from a place of complete weakness and only projecting strength but with hollow weights.


Let me run it down for you:

Russia lost Ukraine by offering them a $15B trade deal, when it should have been about $50B. This pissed off the people of Ukraine who realized they could get a better deal from the West. They tossed out the pro-Russian government. From this point it all goes down-hill for Russia.

Now Ukraine is getting
$18B from the IMF
$15B from the EU
$1B from the USA
$3B from the World Bank
$37B Total

Next: Russia realized that Ukraine would probably void Russia's lease on Sevastopol and other Russian bases in the Ukraine. So they quickly invaded Ukraine and took over the Crimean Peninsula. They had to act fast before Ukraine's new government got organized enough to protect their own territory. Russia knew there would be a backlash from the West, but they really had no choice.

At this point it's too late for any further invasions by Russia. Ukraine is getting better organized with each day that passes. Ukraine is using Western Intelligence services and Western Advisers to coordinate their response to the invasion. Russia's economy has stalled and is being hurt. More invasions won't work. And they still have no land-bridge to the Crimean Peninsula.

Putin knows he can't support the separatists. That would cause even more, harsher trade sanctions. But if he doesn't look strong at home he could lose his job. Putin is in a dilly-of-a-pickle
 
2014-05-08 04:12:12 PM
Is it me, or does it look increasingly more and more like Putin is basically a George W. Bush and started all this shiat without really thinking this through.

All he really has is "The USA and Germany have set up a Nazi government in Kiev and we have to fight it". Meanwhile, the Pro-Russian seperatists are getting massacred by drunken Soccer fans all while raising the derp to 11... So yeah, Putin could conquer all of the Ukraine but he knows he's gonna lose a shiatload of soldiers doing it. It's not going to be easy, it's gonna be ugly. And now he's lost complete control.

JolobinSmokin: I read this in a Thomas Friedman column so take it as you will, but If Putin was so strong why are his supporters wearing masks?

It seems like his position and what he is trying is from a place of complete weakness and only projecting strength but with hollow weights.


THIS.
 
2014-05-08 04:44:26 PM
Pootie realized that the referendum would lose, unlike in Crimea (even given shenanigans needed there). Crash and burn, Tytushki
 
2014-05-08 06:14:55 PM

JolobinSmokin: I read this in a Thomas Friedman column so take it as you will, but If Putin was so strong why are his supporters wearing masks?

It seems like his position and what he is trying is from a place of complete weakness and only projecting strength but with hollow weights.


if you bluff and win, you still win.

Although my best estimations on this is that it seems its gonna be a short term win and not a long term... for Russia. For Putin it may be a full win. He gets to look tough at home and now any economic problems he can blame on the West whether they stem from the sanctions or not. He's going to ride this nationalist wave for a while thanks to all of this. It allows him to create enemies to consolidate power.
 
2014-05-08 09:32:02 PM

tinyarena: JolobinSmokin: I read this in a Thomas Friedman column so take it as you will, but If Putin was so strong why are his supporters wearing masks?

It seems like his position and what he is trying is from a place of complete weakness and only projecting strength but with hollow weights.

Let me run it down for you:

Russia lost Ukraine by offering them a $15B trade deal, when it should have been about $50B. This pissed off the people of Ukraine who realized they could get a better deal from the West. They tossed out the pro-Russian government. From this point it all goes down-hill for Russia.

Now Ukraine is getting
$18B from the IMF
$15B from the EU
$1B from the USA
$3B from the World Bank
$37B Total

Next: Russia realized that Ukraine would probably void Russia's lease on Sevastopol and other Russian bases in the Ukraine. So they quickly invaded Ukraine and took over the Crimean Peninsula. They had to act fast before Ukraine's new government got organized enough to protect their own territory. Russia knew there would be a backlash from the West, but they really had no choice.

At this point it's too late for any further invasions by Russia. Ukraine is getting better organized with each day that passes. Ukraine is using Western Intelligence services and Western Advisers to coordinate their response to the invasion. Russia's economy has stalled and is being hurt. More invasions won't work. And they still have no land-bridge to the Crimean Peninsula.

Putin knows he can't support the separatists. That would cause even more, harsher trade sanctions. But if he doesn't look strong at home he could lose his job. Putin is in a dilly-of-a-pickle


Wasn't it reported that one of the first actions taken by the interim government was to assure Russia that their leases (through ~2040 iirc) were still good?
 
2014-05-08 10:12:37 PM

kbronsito: if you bluff and win, you still win.

Although my best estimations on this is that it seems its gonna be a short term win and not a long term... for Russia. For Putin it may be a full win. He gets to look tough at home and now any economic problems he can blame on the West whether they stem from the sanctions or not. He's going to ride this nationalist wave for a while thanks to all of this. It allows him to create enemies to consolidate power.


International politics is not the same as playing cards with your friends. For example, if Russia keeps up their bellicosity, they will be further isolated--Gazprom, for example, may lose it's ability to drill off of US or European shores, the 2018 World Cup can be stripped from them, etc. Sure, Putin can blame the west, but when people start standing in long ass breadlines, eventually, they are going to ask: "Hey, dear leader, why don't we do something about the economy? Either attack the west, or learn to lead".

This is the problem with the Ukraine. Putin went balls deep in blaming the west, but ultimately, he just inherited a non-sustainable Crimea, a foreign policy and economic disaster, and NATO pointing a rifle right at his nutsack. He waits, he can ride nationalist sentiment, but the Ukrainian pro-Russians lose heart, and Putin loses tremendous international prestige.Or he can attack, which ultimately leaves Putin in a weaker position. Simply put, the Eastern Ukrainians want to be part of Russia and want Putin to act, and are even going ahead with their referendum. External factors have now forced his hand, and he's lost control of the entire situation.
 
2014-05-08 11:50:49 PM

RINO:
Wasn't it reported that one of the first actions taken by the interim government was to assure Russia that their leases (through ~2040 iirc) were still good?


I don't know. All of this only makes sense if Russia felt that, in the near term, they'd have issues keeping their bases, and getting in and out of Crimea. They've solved one, but not the other. Personally I'd fill in the east coast of Crimea and connect it that way. Good public works project too.
 
2014-05-09 01:03:27 AM

Wessoman: Simply put, the Eastern Ukrainians want to be part of Russia and want Putin to act, and are even going ahead with their referendum. External factors have now forced his hand, and he's lost control of the entire situation.


70% of Eastern Ukraine, according to source upthread, wants to stay in Ukraine.
 
2014-05-09 04:18:29 AM

Summercat: 70% of Eastern Ukraine, according to source upthread, wants to stay in Ukraine.


Absolutely. But a significant part of those 70% wants to stay in Ukraine and yet "be separate". Hell if I know how they are planning to achieve that, but "not being ruled by thieves in Kiev" is a big part of what even those who want to stay in Ukraine want.

Funny thing is Western Ukraine wants the same, so they are going to get it (serious decentralization). Although with economic and political situation Ukraine is now Putin doesn't have to hurry. There would be opportunities to eat up Ukraine in future aplenty.
 
2014-05-09 10:44:17 AM

Grahor: Summercat: 70% of Eastern Ukraine, according to source upthread, wants to stay in Ukraine.

Absolutely. But a significant part of those 70% wants to stay in Ukraine and yet "be separate". Hell if I know how they are planning to achieve that, but "not being ruled by thieves in Kiev" is a big part of what even those who want to stay in Ukraine want.

Funny thing is Western Ukraine wants the same, so they are going to get it (serious decentralization). Although with economic and political situation Ukraine is now Putin doesn't have to hurry. There would be opportunities to eat up Ukraine in future aplenty.


Unfortunately, I have to agree with you. Ukraine and Russia can't seem to quit each other, no matter what the circumstances are.
 
2014-05-09 11:59:14 AM
Nice headline, subby.  +1 internets.
 
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