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(Yahoo)   The ongoing search for the missing Malaysian airliner has revealed a serious hurdle for China's plans to become the dominant naval power in the Pacific: Navies need friendly ports to resupply in and most of China's neighbors don't like China much   (news.yahoo.com) divider line 44
    More: Interesting, Asia-Pacific, cargo ship, patrol ships, Peking University, collective securities, Diego Garcia, Gulfport, supply lines  
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4945 clicks; posted to Main » on 23 Apr 2014 at 12:38 PM (17 weeks ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



44 Comments   (+0 »)
   
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2014-04-23 12:06:15 PM
"I went to Philadelphia Taipei once. It was closed." - W.C. Fields
 
2014-04-23 12:41:17 PM
While the US Navy, sitting in Vietnamese ports, points and laughs.

\We've made nice.
\\And they don't like China much.
 
2014-04-23 12:43:43 PM
And look what its done to CNN! It broke their breaking news.
 
2014-04-23 12:44:27 PM
"an Army (or in this case Navy) run on its stomach"

"Amateurs talk about tactics, but professionals study logistics."


TR may have been an unreconstructed imperialist but he did America a pretty Huge Solid with his meddling the Philippines and elsewhere
 
2014-04-23 12:45:49 PM
Once a Chinese ship is fueled it needs more fuel an hour later.
 
2014-04-23 12:48:28 PM

cptjeff: While the US Navy, sitting in Vietnamese ports, points and laughs.

\We've made nice.
\\And they don't like China much.


one of the criticism other countries frequently level at the US is that it is a country "with no history"   since we are only 200 years old, we have none of the thousand year old traditions many other countries boast.   Which is actually an asset of ours.   We are so unconscious of history that we can easily discard it when it suits our present day interests, and on the Vietnamese side, the 1500-year old hatred they have for China Far trumps any "recent unpleasantness" that may have passed between the US and Vietnam
 
2014-04-23 12:48:46 PM
They won't find the plane until it wants to be found...
 
2014-04-23 12:50:00 PM

uncleacid: Once a Chinese ship is fueled it needs more fuel an hour later.


Recent order of Chinese take out included this fortune in my cookie "You will be hungry in about an hour"   I almost choked to death laughing
 
2014-04-23 12:50:20 PM
That is what happens when you have been assholes to your neighbors for centuries. That type of history is harder to forgive than a war a few decades ago.
 
2014-04-23 12:51:20 PM
Don't nuclear submarines only surface one every 2 years to allow their crews to re-enlist?
 
2014-04-23 12:51:27 PM

Magorn: "an Army (or in this case Navy) run on its stomach"


You were right the first time...it's the People's Liberation Army Navy.  :D  It's just the naval warfare branch of their Army.
 
2014-04-23 12:52:40 PM
They will find the plane after it can be assumed that sea creatures will have devoured the Chinese nuclear scientists that were on board, returning from vacation.
 
2014-04-23 12:54:04 PM

ongbok: That is what happens when you have been assholes to your neighbors for centuries. That type of history is harder to forgive than a war a few decades ago.


Vietnam was at war with China more recently than they've fought the US, and they have an active territorial dispute with China over the Spratlys and the Paracels. In fact even during the Vietnam War the Chinese supposedly stole supplies that the Soviets sent to North Vietnam when they were passing through China.
 
2014-04-23 12:55:04 PM

cptjeff: While the US Navy, sitting in Vietnamese ports, points and laughs.

\We've made nice.
\\And they don't like China much.


China is so rich they could outbid us in our own currency, and in international dealings, money trumps all. I imagine this "problem" hasn't been on their radar since they know they can buy their way out of it, and just haven't decided yet who's gonna get which end of the stick.
 
2014-04-23 12:55:25 PM
Meanwhile, Free Trade NutJobs in the US will find a way to blame this on Americans...close more US factories...flood US market with more ChiCom goods
 
2014-04-23 12:55:39 PM

mcreadyblue: Don't nuclear submarines only surface one every 2 years to allow their crews to re-enlist?


No
 
2014-04-23 12:57:27 PM
Obviously, China needs to develop some Helicarriers.

www.wired.com
/hail hydra
 
2014-04-23 12:58:37 PM
Yahoo News; clearly the military experts here.
 
2014-04-23 12:59:50 PM

Sentient: cptjeff: While the US Navy, sitting in Vietnamese ports, points and laughs.

\We've made nice.
\\And they don't like China much.

China is so rich they could outbid us in our own currency, and in international dealings, money trumps all. I imagine this "problem" hasn't been on their radar since they know they can buy their way out of it, and just haven't decided yet who's gonna get which end of the stick.


China ain;t nearly as rich as most people assume, and most of its currency goes towards artifically propping up the standard of living back home, even if that means funding the building of giant "ghost cities" full of shops and apartment building that no one will ever live in, just to create construction jobs
 
2014-04-23 01:00:26 PM
Round eye have rast raff.
 
2014-04-23 01:02:56 PM

Sentient: cptjeff: While the US Navy, sitting in Vietnamese ports, points and laughs.

\We've made nice.
\\And they don't like China much.

China is so rich they could outbid us in our own currency, and in international dealings, money trumps all. I imagine this "problem" hasn't been on their radar since they know they can buy their way out of it, and just haven't decided yet who's gonna get which end of the stick.


Yeah, that's not quite how it works, and you're dramatically overstating China's economic power- they're powerful, but we're still the #1 world economy, and their domestic economy is, despite the calculated outward appearance, on a razor's edge. Vietnam's entire foreign policy these days is resisting Chinese power and Chinese domination of the South China Sea. Partnering with the US Navy fills a critical strategic need for them, and no amount of money is going to get them to essentially turn themselves into a vassal state.
 
2014-04-23 01:05:32 PM

Magorn: uncleacid: Once a Chinese ship is fueled it needs more fuel an hour later.

Recent order of Chinese take out included this fortune in my cookie "You will be hungry in about an hour"   I almost choked to death laughing


Well? Was it right?
 
2014-04-23 01:06:48 PM

Magorn: Sentient: cptjeff: While the US Navy, sitting in Vietnamese ports, points and laughs.

\We've made nice.
\\And they don't like China much.

China is so rich they could outbid us in our own currency, and in international dealings, money trumps all. I imagine this "problem" hasn't been on their radar since they know they can buy their way out of it, and just haven't decided yet who's gonna get which end of the stick.

China ain;t nearly as rich as most people assume, and most of its currency goes towards artifically propping up the standard of living back home, even if that means funding the building of giant "ghost cities" full of shops and apartment building that no one will ever live in, just to create construction jobs


That brings a tear to the zombie eye of Ronald Reagan.  The Chinese have become a bunch of supply siders,
 
2014-04-23 01:07:35 PM

cptjeff: Sentient: cptjeff: While the US Navy, sitting in Vietnamese ports, points and laughs.

\We've made nice.
\\And they don't like China much.

China is so rich they could outbid us in our own currency, and in international dealings, money trumps all. I imagine this "problem" hasn't been on their radar since they know they can buy their way out of it, and just haven't decided yet who's gonna get which end of the stick.

Yeah, that's not quite how it works, and you're dramatically overstating China's economic power- they're powerful, but we're still the #1 world economy, and their domestic economy is, despite the calculated outward appearance, on a razor's edge. Vietnam's entire foreign policy these days is resisting Chinese power and Chinese domination of the South China Sea. Partnering with the US Navy fills a critical strategic need for them, and no amount of money is going to get them to essentially turn themselves into a vassal state.


But it works in EU 4!
 
2014-04-23 01:08:39 PM

Arkanaut: ongbok: That is what happens when you have been assholes to your neighbors for centuries. That type of history is harder to forgive than a war a few decades ago.

Vietnam was at war with China more recently than they've fought the US, and they have an active territorial dispute with China over the Spratlys and the Paracels. In fact even during the Vietnam War the Chinese supposedly stole supplies that the Soviets sent to North Vietnam when they were passing through China.


I know that. They have been basically in continuous conflict with China for centuries, just like China has been with most of its neighbors. My point was a country who your only conflict was a war a few decades ago will be forgiven and be an ally a lot sooner than a country you have had continuous conflict with for centuries.
 
2014-04-23 01:08:55 PM

Magorn: cptjeff: While the US Navy, sitting in Vietnamese ports, points and laughs.

\We've made nice.
\\And they don't like China much.

one of the criticism other countries frequently level at the US is that it is a country "with no history"   since we are only 200 years old, we have none of the thousand year old traditions many other countries boast.   Which is actually an asset of ours.   We are so unconscious of history that we can easily discard it when it suits our present day interests, and on the Vietnamese side, the 1500-year old hatred they have for China Far trumps any "recent unpleasantness" that may have passed between the US and Vietnam


We're in good company. Within the last century, Vietnam had unpleasantness with France, Japan, Cambodia, and China. pretty much the only regional power they really get along with is Russia.
 
2014-04-23 01:11:23 PM

stratagos: cptjeff: Sentient: cptjeff: While the US Navy, sitting in Vietnamese ports, points and laughs.

\We've made nice.
\\And they don't like China much.

China is so rich they could outbid us in our own currency, and in international dealings, money trumps all. I imagine this "problem" hasn't been on their radar since they know they can buy their way out of it, and just haven't decided yet who's gonna get which end of the stick.

Yeah, that's not quite how it works, and you're dramatically overstating China's economic power- they're powerful, but we're still the #1 world economy, and their domestic economy is, despite the calculated outward appearance, on a razor's edge. Vietnam's entire foreign policy these days is resisting Chinese power and Chinese domination of the South China Sea. Partnering with the US Navy fills a critical strategic need for them, and no amount of money is going to get them to essentially turn themselves into a vassal state.

But it works in EU 4!


you can only get at max +25 diplo relations from a monetary gift.  Meanwhile, Vietnam has set China to rival status.
 
2014-04-23 01:13:54 PM

This text is now purple: Magorn: cptjeff: While the US Navy, sitting in Vietnamese ports, points and laughs.

\We've made nice.
\\And they don't like China much.

one of the criticism other countries frequently level at the US is that it is a country "with no history"   since we are only 200 years old, we have none of the thousand year old traditions many other countries boast.   Which is actually an asset of ours.   We are so unconscious of history that we can easily discard it when it suits our present day interests, and on the Vietnamese side, the 1500-year old hatred they have for China Far trumps any "recent unpleasantness" that may have passed between the US and Vietnam

We're in good company. Within the last century, Vietnam had unpleasantness with France, Japan, Cambodia, and China. pretty much the only regional power they really get along with is Russia.


Should I point out they are currently 5-0 for the 20th century?   They are approaching the Wu-tang Clan in rankings of things not to fark with
 
2014-04-23 01:16:59 PM

cptjeff: Yeah, that's not quite how it works, and you're dramatically overstating China's economic power- they're powerful, but we're still the #1 world economy, and their domestic economy is, despite the calculated outward appearance, on a razor's edge. Vietnam's entire foreign policy these days is resisting Chinese power and Chinese domination of the South China Sea. Partnering with the US Navy fills a critical strategic need for them, and no amount of money is going to get them to essentially turn themselves into a vassal state.


Vietnam, while clearly valuable in this regard, is one country out of... well, quite a few that have walk-in beach access. And sure, China's resources aren't unlimited. But what they have is no problem with spending their profits in ways that everyone but Russia finds repugnant. My point is that it's reasonable to assume that there are plenty of gov'ts in that part of the world who can be bought & sold, regardless of how the rabble think of them. We have a few of those bases ourselves, if you think about it.
 
2014-04-23 01:23:24 PM

Magorn: This text is now purple: Magorn: cptjeff: While the US Navy, sitting in Vietnamese ports, points and laughs.

\We've made nice.
\\And they don't like China much.

one of the criticism other countries frequently level at the US is that it is a country "with no history"   since we are only 200 years old, we have none of the thousand year old traditions many other countries boast.   Which is actually an asset of ours.   We are so unconscious of history that we can easily discard it when it suits our present day interests, and on the Vietnamese side, the 1500-year old hatred they have for China Far trumps any "recent unpleasantness" that may have passed between the US and Vietnam

We're in good company. Within the last century, Vietnam had unpleasantness with France, Japan, Cambodia, and China. pretty much the only regional power they really get along with is Russia.

Should I point out they are currently 5-0 for the 20th century?   They are approaching the Wu-tang Clan in rankings of things not to fark with


That's so 14 years ago.
 
2014-04-23 01:24:51 PM
And China will come up with it's usual official response to it's neighbors:

31.media.tumblr.com
 
2014-04-23 01:25:18 PM

Magorn: This text is now purple: Magorn: cptjeff: While the US Navy, sitting in Vietnamese ports, points and laughs.

\We've made nice.
\\And they don't like China much.

one of the criticism other countries frequently level at the US is that it is a country "with no history"   since we are only 200 years old, we have none of the thousand year old traditions many other countries boast.   Which is actually an asset of ours.   We are so unconscious of history that we can easily discard it when it suits our present day interests, and on the Vietnamese side, the 1500-year old hatred they have for China Far trumps any "recent unpleasantness" that may have passed between the US and Vietnam

We're in good company. Within the last century, Vietnam had unpleasantness with France, Japan, Cambodia, and China. pretty much the only regional power they really get along with is Russia.

Should I point out they are currently 5-0 for the 20th century?   They are approaching the Wu-tang Clan in rankings of things not to fark with


China kind of handed them their ass. They stayed independent (being axe-crazy will do that), but lost territory.
 
2014-04-23 01:29:14 PM

Arkanaut: ongbok: That is what happens when you have been assholes to your neighbors for centuries. That type of history is harder to forgive than a war a few decades ago.

Vietnam was at war with China more recently than they've fought the US, and they have an active territorial dispute with China over the Spratlys and the Paracels. In fact even during the Vietnam War the Chinese supposedly stole supplies that the Soviets sent to North Vietnam when they were passing through China.


So I stumbled across this a while back (https://handleshaus.wordpress.com/2013/12/17/review-of-the-rise-of-c hi na-vs-the-logic-of-strategy-by-edward-luttwak/), and in it this guy detailed the entire anti-China coalition, and it was really hilarious.

Japan:
a) Japan recently toyed with the idea of a Chinese detente, reconciliation, and rapprochement.   ... It didn't work out, mostly because China couldn't be gracious towards Japan and seize the opportunity, and instead ended up pushing Japan away back into the loving arms of the US.  Beyond a superiority complex in general, the animosity and antagonism towards the Japanese in particular is, for better or worse, an integral part of the way Chinese culture works.  The CCP seems to know how to summon the nationalist dragon and ride it to popularity, but not how to put it back in Pandora's box when it's become inconvenient.
b) At the end of the day, the Japanese concluded they just couldn't trust the secretive and scowling Chinese at all.  Trust is, in some respects, generated by a track record of irrational altruism.  A truly realpolitick world would be highly unstable with regards to alliances unless the dominant power tends to sincerely adhere to some kind of state religion that makes it treat its allies well even to a fault and at great personal cost [cough, Israel, cough].  But when a great power is at the head of a very large and diverse global alliance, then one should not underestimate the symbolic value and deep influence that displays of irrational amounts of loyalty has on other leery allies.
c) [Skipping, not important]
d) The Chinese lost whatever opportunity they may have had altogether when the situation went South on 07-SEP-2010 with the Senkaku fishing intrusion incident.  Reckless Chinese reactions including attacks on Japanese-affiliated shops, arrests, interruption of rare-earth shipments, and provocative demands for official public apologies has the effect of crystallizing the underlying Japanese anxieties about China's intentions.


Vietnam:
Few Westerners even know about the many wars fought between China and Vietnam, especially the one shortly following the American-Vietnamese war.  But, to put it as concisely as possible, Despite the inherent compatibility of their Maoist political systems, the Vietnamese just hate the Chinese and are absolutely determined to do whatever is necessary to prevent even coming under Chinese domination, even if it means fighting in the jungles to the very last man.  They are the Afghans of Southeast Asia. Don't fight them; they'll wear you out and you'll lose; even if you're as powerful as the U.S. or China.
Hillary Clinton...declared:"'legitimate claims to maritime space in the South China Sea should be derived solely from legitimate claims to land features' a new position that undermines China's claims to the entire ocean area, while supporting Vietnam's."
This contrasts with Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi's angry response, "It is all ours, there is nothing to discuss." Damn, that's pretty bold, but also not any way to win friends.


Indonesia:
would probably maintain a kind of ambiguous neutrality with regards to China today has China not, yet again, pushed Indonesia away with it's alarming, abrasive, and aggressive behaviors.  They continues to make maximal maritime claims, and, as they typically do with the boats of many other neighboring countries, conducted all sorts of harassment operations.  Luttwak says, "There is no audible, 'who lost Indonesia' debate in Beijing, but there should be."

Phillipines:
And the Philippines, being major commodity exporters to China, had spent the next two decades growing gradually close to China both commercially and diplomatically.
But, can you guess what the Chinese did next?  Sure you can.  Same old story - overbearing and threatening conduct with regards to island and marine territorials disputes and harassment of Philippine shippers and fisherman.  This has pushed the Philippines away and back into a protective relationship with the U.S.


With enemies like China, The U.S. almost can't screw the coalition-building up no matter how hard it tries.
 
2014-04-23 01:33:24 PM

MBooda: /hail hydra


Don't worry, Skye will bring them down.  She's so dreamy and special.
 
2014-04-23 01:35:05 PM

nickerj1: But it works in EU 4!

you can only get at max +25 diplo relations from a monetary gift. Meanwhile, Vietnam has set China to rival status.


And they still have -50 agressive expansion from fully annexing Tibet, plus minor CB penalties.
 
2014-04-23 01:35:35 PM

meyerkev: With enemies like China, The U.S. almost can't screw the coalition-building up no matter how hard it tries.


They've been trying hard to win over Thailand, but they've screwed that up as well with their plans to dam the Mekong which has pissed off Thailand, Myanmar, Laos, Cambodia and Vietnam.  Although the situation in Thailand is so bad right now, they can probably buy them off if needed (help buy up the old stock of rice that was left to rot due to the corruption of the rice pledging scheme).
 
2014-04-23 01:59:22 PM

Magorn: Sentient: cptjeff: While the US Navy, sitting in Vietnamese ports, points and laughs.

\We've made nice.
\\And they don't like China much.

China is so rich they could outbid us in our own currency, and in international dealings, money trumps all. I imagine this "problem" hasn't been on their radar since they know they can buy their way out of it, and just haven't decided yet who's gonna get which end of the stick.

China ain;t nearly as rich as most people assume, and most of its currency goes towards artifically propping up the standard of living back home, even if that means funding the building of giant "ghost cities" full of shops and apartment building that no one will ever live in, just to create construction jobs


Bingo.

After Tienanmen Square, the Chinese Communist Party realized that they didn't want to end up like the Soviet Bloc, deposed and on the dustbin of history.

So, they realized that in the long term they had to head-off potential civil unrest.  Their plan was to raise the standard of living, and they did that by abandoning their Maoist economy and becoming a totalitarian capitalist state that was Communist In Name Only.  They got to have the economic benefits of a market economy, and the increase in standard of living gave a nice "bread and circuses" pacification to the Chinese people.  They didn't really care about being purely Communist, the hardliners who believed that were dead or deposed by the  late '80's.  They care about keeping power and maintaining social order, and they have spent a quarter century in an elaborate economic shell game to prop up their economy to keep their people happy.

China isn't anywhere nearly as economically strong as it seems.  If they stopped trading with us, it would put our economy in a big hurt. . .but their own government would collapse because that's what is keeping them from having Tienanmen-style protests everywhere.
 
2014-04-23 02:12:24 PM
Their military planning seems to have some sort of... I dunno what to call it... Flaw?  Hole?  Vulnerability?  in its armor.
 
2014-04-23 02:19:51 PM

ongbok: Arkanaut: ongbok: That is what happens when you have been assholes to your neighbors for centuries. That type of history is harder to forgive than a war a few decades ago.

Vietnam was at war with China more recently than they've fought the US, and they have an active territorial dispute with China over the Spratlys and the Paracels. In fact even during the Vietnam War the Chinese supposedly stole supplies that the Soviets sent to North Vietnam when they were passing through China.

I know that. They have been basically in continuous conflict with China for centuries, just like China has been with most of its neighbors. My point was a country who your only conflict was a war a few decades ago will be forgiven and be an ally a lot sooner than a country you have had continuous conflict with for centuries.


What I was trying to say is that current geopolitical concerns are more pertinent than old rivalries; England and France have been at each other's throats for centuries, but they've also fought as allies recently. Muslim Turks and Christians have had both geopolitical and religious conflict since about 1100, but they've also fought on the same side as Christian nations off and on.  The "in conflict for centuries" theme gets used a lot in political analysis, and it's extremely lazy -- any two neighboring nations that have existed for centuries will be sure to have fought at some point.  It's not enough to explain why two nations would be fighting now.  A Realpolitik answer is more relevant.

In this case current geopolitical concerns happen to align with historical conflicts.  But the conflict is likely to go away if A) both parties are faced with a greater external threat, or B) both parties experience a simultaneous economic boom that makes them too well-off to risk going to war.
 
2014-04-23 03:02:52 PM

Magorn: Sentient: cptjeff: While the US Navy, sitting in Vietnamese ports, points and laughs.

\We've made nice.
\\And they don't like China much.

China is so rich they could outbid us in our own currency, and in international dealings, money trumps all. I imagine this "problem" hasn't been on their radar since they know they can buy their way out of it, and just haven't decided yet who's gonna get which end of the stick.

China ain;t nearly as rich as most people assume, and most of its currency goes towards artifically propping up the standard of living back home, even if that means funding the building of giant "ghost cities" full of shops and apartment building that no one will ever live in, just to create construction jobs


You forgot all the billions that their corrupt officials steal.  As bad as American officials can be, they don't got nothing on the Chinese who have been mastering the art of betraying the public trust long before anyone in the west even knew there was a China.  Hell, all those billions of dollars the Chinese are using to buy up realestate in Detroit and other places, is just corrupt officials sitting up nest eggs incase they ever have to flee home with nothing but a pocketful of state secrets.
 
2014-04-23 05:32:57 PM
images.huffingtonpost.com
 
2014-04-23 06:21:16 PM

airsupport: Their military planning seems to have some sort of... I dunno what to call it... Flaw?  Hole?  Vulnerability?  in its armor.


i.imgur.com
 
2014-04-23 10:39:08 PM

airsupport: Their military planning seems to have some sort of... I dunno what to call it... Flaw?  Hole?  Vulnerability?  in its armor.


That's an interesting slant you have on their military.
 
2014-04-24 05:09:18 AM

MBooda: Obviously, China needs to develop some Helicarriers.

[www.wired.com image 660x372]
/hail hydra


HAIL HYDRA!

assets2.ignimgs.com
 
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