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(Washington Post)   Statistical analysts: "Democrats have a 1% chance of retaking the House." Democrats: "So you're saying there's a chance"   (washingtonpost.com) divider line 154
    More: Obvious, Democrats, John Sides, 80th Congress, GOP House  
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1435 clicks; posted to Politics » on 21 Apr 2014 at 8:07 PM (18 weeks ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



154 Comments   (+0 »)
   
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2014-04-21 06:30:50 PM
Forecasting this far out? Just blind fold the monkey and have him throw a dart.
 
2014-04-21 06:40:22 PM
Have those numbers been unskewed?

What does Dick Morris say?
 
2014-04-21 06:41:26 PM

The Stealth Hippopotamus: Forecasting this far out? Just blind fold the monkey and have him throw a dart.


Yeah, Nate Silver doesn't even have a chart yet...
 
2014-04-21 06:53:24 PM
I'm not scared that they won't win back the house. I'm scared that they lose the Senate.
 
2014-04-21 06:55:01 PM
Have you met my friend Gerry?
 
2014-04-21 07:00:07 PM
Which statistical analysts? Rove, is that you?
 
2014-04-21 07:03:37 PM

Quasar: I'm not scared that they won't win back the house. I'm scared that they lose the Senate.


I think that would be fun.  I wouldn't mind seeing the GOP have a tizzy over the Dems use of the filibuster
 
2014-04-21 07:05:57 PM

Lionel Mandrake: Quasar: I'm not scared that they won't win back the house. I'm scared that they lose the Senate.

I think that would be fun.  I wouldn't mind seeing the GOP have a tizzy over the Dems use of the filibuster


Hah. You think the Republicans are going to let the Democrats use the filibuster? I'll be shocked if they don't get rid of it entirely.
 
2014-04-21 07:07:10 PM
That's what they're supposed to say.
 
2014-04-21 07:12:32 PM

Serious Black: Lionel Mandrake: Quasar: I'm not scared that they won't win back the house. I'm scared that they lose the Senate.

I think that would be fun.  I wouldn't mind seeing the GOP have a tizzy over the Dems use of the filibuster

Hah. You think the Republicans are going to let the Democrats use the filibuster? I'll be shocked if they don't get rid of it entirely.


That wouldn't be smart, given that 2016 is likely to be as bad or worse for them than 2014 is for the dems.  And between 2014 and 2916, the dems still hold the veto pen
 
2014-04-21 07:13:08 PM
...not that I count on the GOP to do the smart thing....
 
2014-04-21 07:19:33 PM
If we as a people think that a collection of children who tried to out vote or filibuster everything Obama tried to do whether they agreed with it or not should have the majority of either house then we deserve what we get.
 
2014-04-21 08:03:26 PM
This is precisely why we'll see another Democratic POTUS. It works quite well for the Repugnicans. They pretty much get to fark the proles, pillage the economy and take all the bribes they want. And if they get caught with their hand in the cookie jar, they'll just blame it on that eeeebul soshulist in the White House.

They already set up two fall guys against Obama. Poor saps thought they actually stood a chance. I wonder who their sacrificial lamb will be in 2016.
 
2014-04-21 08:17:01 PM
Wow... The liberal butthurt in here is close to maxed out.

ool.
 
2014-04-21 08:18:06 PM
So it futile to gain seats, but end up with less than a majority?

/remember, incumbents usual have an advantage the following election
 
2014-04-21 08:19:34 PM
Looks like a re-do of the do-nothing House.
I predict they will surpass 100ct. on repealing ACA.
 
2014-04-21 08:19:42 PM

The Stealth Hippopotamus: Forecasting this far out? Just blind fold the monkey and have him throw a dart.


Hey now, past darts from the Monkey Cage haven't been completely terrible.

Still, the Monkey may lean a bit Republican; but even adding in the extra 6 seats based on their last miss, the Democrats might have barely a 10% chance of taking control -- though that offset makes at least holding their current ground looks a lot more like even money.
 
2014-04-21 08:20:32 PM

Ontos: Wow... The liberal butthurt in here is close to maxed out.


Where?
 
2014-04-21 08:22:02 PM

Lionel Mandrake: Ontos: Wow... The liberal butthurt in here is close to maxed out.

Where?


I had a colonoscopy this morning.
 
2014-04-21 08:22:25 PM

Ontos: Wow... The liberal butthurt in here is close to maxed out.

ool.


Can you point to specific butthurt? Or are you projecting like a theater?
 
2014-04-21 08:25:28 PM

Ontos: Wow... The liberal butthurt in here is close to maxed out.

ool.


I'm sorry that Obama took so much of your tax money and gave it to people who won't work a shiatty job.
 
2014-04-21 08:25:56 PM

revrendjim: Lionel Mandrake: Ontos: Wow... The liberal butthurt in here is close to maxed out.

Where?

I had a colonoscopy this morning.


I just took a giant dump myself. Feeling a lot less butthurt right now than before.
 
2014-04-21 08:26:11 PM

Lionel Mandrake: Serious Black: Lionel Mandrake: Quasar: I'm not scared that they won't win back the house. I'm scared that they lose the Senate.
I think that would be fun.  I wouldn't mind seeing the GOP have a tizzy over the Dems use of the filibuster
Hah. You think the Republicans are going to let the Democrats use the filibuster? I'll be shocked if they don't get rid of it entirely.
That wouldn't be smart, given that 2016 is likely to be as bad or worse for them than 2014 is for the dems.  And between 2014 and 2916, the dems still hold the veto pen


You owe me a new... Okay it was just water from the fountain, but it still didn't feel great coming through my nose.
 
2014-04-21 08:27:11 PM

whidbey: Ontos: Wow... The liberal butthurt in here is close to maxed out.

ool.

I'm sorry that Obama took so much of your tax money and gave it to people who won't work a shiatty job.


And then he sent federal gents to grab all his guns...
 
2014-04-21 08:28:02 PM

Kumana Wanalaia: Ontos: Wow... The liberal butthurt in here is close to maxed out.

ool.

Can you point to specific butthurt? Or are you projecting like a theater?


He should work for IMAX.
 
2014-04-21 08:28:06 PM

Quasar: I'm not scared that they won't win back the house. I'm scared that they lose the Senate.


Obama would have carpal tunnel syndrome after having to veto insane bigoted Christian dominionist legislation all day for two years straight.

I'm also pretty the GOP retaking the Senate would further kill them in 2016.  They've got 23 seats up for grabs, many of which are teabaggers that took a typically Dem seat in 2010.  The Dems have 10 seats up, with all of them surviving the Great American Teabagging of 2010.  Most of those teabaggers have pissed off huge numbers of people and it's a Presidential election year, so expect voter turnout to be high.

I'm pretty sure that after two full years of nothing but insane sh*t flying through both chambers combined, a couple more gov't shutdowns, a nonchalant defaulting on our debt payments, and a half dozen declarations of war on random countries being approved with nobody but Obama to say "No, I won't give the order, you sick f*cks" that the backlash against the GOP would be crippling.
 
m00
2014-04-21 08:29:18 PM
25.media.tumblr.com
 
2014-04-21 08:29:31 PM

clkeagle: Lionel Mandrake: Serious Black: Lionel Mandrake: Quasar: I'm not scared that they won't win back the house. I'm scared that they lose the Senate.
I think that would be fun.  I wouldn't mind seeing the GOP have a tizzy over the Dems use of the filibuster
Hah. You think the Republicans are going to let the Democrats use the filibuster? I'll be shocked if they don't get rid of it entirely.
That wouldn't be smart, given that 2016 is likely to be as bad or worse for them than 2014 is for the dems.  And between 2014 and 2916, the dems still hold the veto pen

You owe me a new... Okay it was just water from the fountain, but it still didn't feel great coming through my nose.


...I can dream
 
2014-04-21 08:31:58 PM

Lionel Mandrake: clkeagle: Lionel Mandrake: Serious Black: Lionel Mandrake: Quasar: I'm not scared that they won't win back the house. I'm scared that they lose the Senate.
I think that would be fun.  I wouldn't mind seeing the GOP have a tizzy over the Dems use of the filibuster
Hah. You think the Republicans are going to let the Democrats use the filibuster? I'll be shocked if they don't get rid of it entirely.
That wouldn't be smart, given that 2016 is likely to be as bad or worse for them than 2014 is for the dems.  And between 2014 and 2916, the dems still hold the veto pen

You owe me a new... Okay it was just water from the fountain, but it still didn't feel great coming through my nose.

...I can dream


And I'd hope an actual left-wing party emerges well before then.
 
2014-04-21 08:32:03 PM
The five years Republicans had the house, senate and presidency in the early 2000's almost destroyed the country.


Let's give all three to them again and see if they can complete the job this time.
 
2014-04-21 08:33:54 PM

The Stealth Hippopotamus: Forecasting this far out? Just blind fold the monkey and have him throw a dart.


I predict that 90% of House incumbents will be reelected.
 
2014-04-21 08:35:01 PM
To be clear, a plurality of voters preferred the Democrats to the Republicans in House elections in 2012. But owing to extreme and corrupt GOP gerrymandering, not only did the Democrats not take a plurality of House seats, but the Republicans retained a substantial majority.

That marks the 2nd time in 12 years the Democrats have been denied something they won by moral right of majority rule. What James Madison called "the fundamental principle of free government." If anyone in this country has a right to rise in revolt, it is the progressive left.

But they're too patriotic to do so. Unlike conservatives, who seethe with hatred for America and everything it stands for, and therefore do everything they can to destroy it.
 
2014-04-21 08:35:04 PM

Mugato: Kumana Wanalaia: Ontos: Wow... The liberal butthurt in here is close to maxed out.

ool.

Can you point to specific butthurt? Or are you projecting like a theater?

He should work for IMAX.


Maybe he was saying that he is, himself, a Liberal, and butthurt.
It's hard to tell - he doesn't seem to be terribly articulate.
 
2014-04-21 08:36:10 PM

m00: [25.media.tumblr.com image 420x336]


Annnnnnnnnnnnnd that's what I was waiting for
 
2014-04-21 08:39:32 PM

Ontos: Wow... The liberal butthurt in here is close to maxed out.

ool.


img.fark.net
 
2014-04-21 08:42:01 PM

Don't Troll Me Bro!: Obama would have carpal tunnel syndrome after having to veto insane bigoted Christian dominionist legislation all day for two years straight.


He just has to ignore the bill for 10 days and it is vetoed.
 
2014-04-21 08:43:17 PM
I will here Post "How to improve the Congress"

1. Bill length limit : 150 pages.

2. No revision and amendment after remarks. IF you wanna do that, you gotta get onto the floor.

3. No seat shall represent more than 1 million persons. This means :
     A. Each state delegation of senators shall be the same in number, which shall be the largest state's population divided by 1 million, rounded up. Senators shall be divided into two lots, with one lot running for office every three years
     B. The House of Representatives shall have over > 314 members, the largest being California with 39, the smallest being Wyoming with 1.

4. Districting: Every state shall allow representatives to choose a seat (or office location) of their own once elected. The districts for the next election shall be a Voronoi map, with no office allowed to contain more than a standard deviation from the norm in population above or below.

5. All Congressmen shall swear an oath to tell the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth, and be liable for charges of slander and perjury.

6. No Person shall stand for election in a state other than the one in which he has spent more than 121 days per year for the last two consecutive years.

7. The free and open exchange of ideas being necessary to the fullness of democracy, any citizen from any district may contribute any amount to the election funds of their own members while standing for election. The contribution of funds by others is forbidden, although employment of staff may be compensated. All Contributions of any kind shall be openly and notoriously published in the local press.

8.The operation of the executive being necessary to the operation and governance of the nation, all requests for comment, confirmation or approval from said executive shall be approved or denied by said body in a majority vote within 45 days of that request being made in writing.

9. Having sex with persons not ones spouse shall never be an impeachable offense.
 
2014-04-21 08:43:48 PM

Baz744: To be clear, a plurality of voters preferred the Democrats to the Republicans in House elections in 2012. But owing to extreme and corrupt GOP gerrymandering, not only did the Democrats not take a plurality of House seats, but the Republicans retained a substantial majority.

That marks the 2nd time in 12 years the Democrats have been denied something they won by moral right of majority rule. What James Madison called "the fundamental principle of free government." If anyone in this country has a right to rise in revolt, it is the progressive left.

But they're too patriotic to do so. Unlike conservatives, who seethe with hatred for America and everything it stands for, and therefore do everything they can to destroy it.


A lot of us are too busy earning money to give a fark too. We'll just let the poor right wingers continue to vote for wealthy right wingers, then when it f--ks them over try not to point and laugh too much.
 
2014-04-21 08:45:32 PM

Lionel Mandrake: And between 2014 and 2916, the dems still hold the veto pen


900 years of Democrat rule? Thanks, Obama.

;)
 
2014-04-21 08:45:36 PM
Gerrymandering has already ensured that the GOP can retain the house even if they don't win as many votes.

The key is to keep them out of the senate, and the white house.
 
2014-04-21 08:49:53 PM

Antimatter: Gerrymandering has already ensured that the GOP can retain the house even if they don't win as many votes.

The key is to keep them out of the senate, and the white house.


This. And get their buddies out of the SCOTUS.
 
2014-04-21 08:49:54 PM

clkeagle: And I'd hope an actual left-wing party emerges well before then.


There's a US communist party and a US socialist party already if you're serious about that and not just suffering from a combination of No True Scotsman and being too dim to understand what the left-right axis actually represents.
 
2014-04-21 08:50:57 PM

Baz744: To be clear, a plurality of voters preferred the Democrats to the Republicans in House elections in 2012. But owing to extreme and corrupt GOP gerrymandering, not only did the Democrats not take a plurality of House seats, but the Republicans retained a substantial majority.

That marks the 2nd time in 12 years the Democrats have been denied something they won by moral right of majority rule. What James Madison called "the fundamental principle of free government." If anyone in this country has a right to rise in revolt, it is the progressive left.

But they're too patriotic to do so. Unlike conservatives, who seethe with hatred for America and everything it stands for, and therefore do everything they can to destroy it.


your butthurt has driven you mad.
 
2014-04-21 08:51:22 PM
Baz744: That marks the 2nd time in 12 years the Democrats have been denied something they won by moral right of majority rule. What James Madison called "the fundamental principle of free government." If anyone in this country has a right to rise in revolt, it is the progressive left.

James Madison should find the guy who wrote the Constitution and ask why he designed the House that way.
 
2014-04-21 08:55:31 PM

rubi_con_man: A. Each state delegation of senators shall be the same in number, which shall be the largest state's population divided by 1 million, rounded up. Senators shall be divided into two lots, with one lot running for office every three years


I'm not exactly sure why you think having a senate with 2000 members would fix anything, especially since senators represent the will of their state governments rather than the population directly anyhow.
 
2014-04-21 08:55:42 PM

Quasar: I'm not scared that they won't win back the house. I'm scared that they lose the Senate.


I'm not scared of either. In fact, it might be interesting if the GOP get's the senate. Will they nuke the filibuster altogether out of spite of Harry Reid? That would be hilarious. Obama would still veto all the nutty crap they do for 2 years and the Dems would have a damned good chance of retaking both houses (and retaining the White House) in 2016 with a free pass to pass whatever the fark they want.

I'm not convinced that would be the best thing for the country, but seeing the right-wings' collective head's explode would be totally worth it!!!
 
2014-04-21 08:57:22 PM

rubi_con_man: 1. Bill length limit : 150 pages.


No problem. Fire up the electron microscope if you need details.
 
2014-04-21 09:00:26 PM

rubi_con_man: 4. Districting: Every state shall allow representatives to choose a seat (or office location) of their own once elected. The districts for the next election shall be a Voronoi map, with no office allowed to contain more than a standard deviation from the norm in population above or below.


Oh man.  The vying for picking order, along with the actual placement decisions would be like watching a bunch of retarded goldfish trying to play a team-oriented version of Go.

Just think if they were all in a room, and the order got randomly picked, and they couldn't discuss strategy with each other, and everyone had a 5 minute time limit to make a decision and put their pin down on the map after the person in front of them.  Now that I think about it, I suppose that would end up being way more fair and representative of the voters when the next election rolled around.  That's f*ckin' brilliant.
 
2014-04-21 09:01:34 PM

mediablitz: The five years Republicans had the house, senate and presidency in the early 2000's almost destroyed the country.


Let's give all three to them again and see if they can complete the job this time.


They will blame Obama for anything that goes wrong.
 
2014-04-21 09:01:49 PM

haemaker: The Stealth Hippopotamus: Forecasting this far out? Just blind fold the monkey and have him throw a dart.

Yeah, Nate Silver doesn't even have a chart yet...


I don't think even Nate Silver's going to project a Democratic victory.  Even in 2012, with relatively high turnout, the Dems only added what, 8 Congressional seats? It seems unlikely for them to add to that in a mid-term election. And last I heard the Dems were more likely than not to lose Senate seats -- even if they avoid that, it's an uphill battle to win the House outright.
 
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