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(LA Times)   Russian economy, hit by the Ukraine crisis, predicts 0% growth. Apparently Vladimir Putin will not be the only Russian losing his shirt   (latimes.com ) divider line
    More: Fail, President Vladimir Putin, Ukraine, Russians, Russian economy, Ukraine crisis, ethnic Russians in Ukraine, Prime Minister of Russia, financial planners  
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650 clicks; posted to Business » on 18 Apr 2014 at 9:52 AM (2 years ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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vpb [TotalFark]
2014-04-18 09:17:27 AM  
That's why I'm not too worried about him cutting off the gas to Western Europe.  He needs the revenues and it would be hard to ship it anywhere there aren't pipelines.
 
2014-04-18 09:56:13 AM  
You really think the oligarchs are going to be hurt by this?
 
2014-04-18 10:20:27 AM  

Tyrone Slothrop: You really think the oligarchs are going to be hurt by this?


Of course not. But even the most evil dictators can't get away with starving their own citizens forever.
 
2014-04-18 10:36:59 AM  

Lost Thought 00: Tyrone Slothrop: You really think the oligarchs are going to be hurt by this?

Of course not. But even the most evil dictators can't get away with starving their own citizens forever.


Apparently you haven't met Kim family.
 
2014-04-18 10:38:59 AM  
Zero growth?  Damn.  I know Russia was an economic backwater to begin with, but those are some biatch slap sanctions.
 
2014-04-18 10:41:55 AM  

sign_of_Zeta: Lost Thought 00: Tyrone Slothrop: You really think the oligarchs are going to be hurt by this?

Of course not. But even the most evil dictators can't get away with starving their own citizens forever.

Apparently you haven't met Kim family.



Yeah, but I would imagine most Russians know of a world outside of their own country. People in North Korea think what they have is all there is.
 
2014-04-18 10:46:01 AM  

Lost Thought 00: Tyrone Slothrop: You really think the oligarchs are going to be hurt by this?

Of course not. But even the most evil dictators can't get away with starving their own citizens forever.


I doubt Putin and the Oligarchs want a mob of drunk unemployed Russians to deal with anytime soon.
 
2014-04-18 10:47:51 AM  

Scorpitron is reduced to a thin red paste: Zero growth?  Damn.  I know Russia was an economic backwater to begin with, but those are some biatch slap sanctions.


It's not the current sanctions.  It is the threat of future sanctions, and the realization of investors that Russia is not a good bet over the short, medium, or perhaps even long term.
 
2014-04-18 10:49:25 AM  
Imagine if Obama uses his weather machine to cause a potato famine.  Then it would really hit the fan since no more Vodak either.
 
2014-04-18 10:50:39 AM  

Lost Thought 00: Tyrone Slothrop: You really think the oligarchs are going to be hurt by this?

Of course not. But even the most evil dictators can't get away with starving their own citizens forever.


How have the citizen's lives changed at all? They're predicting 0% growth, which means...no change at all. They're not losing, they're not growing.

If they were starving before they still will be, and their opinion of Putin remains unchanged. If they weren't starving before why would they be now? Lack of growth doesn't mean people suddenly start starving and revolting.

Or is this just something you desperately want to be true because it suits your political affiliation?
 
2014-04-18 10:56:20 AM  

js34603: Or is this just something you desperately want to be true because it suits your political affiliation?


What political affiliation would that be?

Honestly curious.
 
2014-04-18 10:58:55 AM  

js34603: How have the citizen's lives changed at all? They're predicting 0% growth, which means...no change at all. They're not losing, they're not growing.


0% growth means you are losing ground to inflation and population increases (maybe Russia doesn't have the growing population problem). Basically, it puts you further behind everyone else who is growing.
 
2014-04-18 11:20:56 AM  

Lost Thought 00: js34603: How have the citizen's lives changed at all? They're predicting 0% growth, which means...no change at all. They're not losing, they're not growing.

0% growth means you are losing ground to inflation and population increases (maybe Russia doesn't have the growing population problem). Basically, it puts you further behind everyone else who is growing.


Not to mention losing additional market capitalization (on the top of the current 20% decrease) because of zero growth/negative real growth. And the ruble was just starting to recover a tiny bit from its sharp decline.
 
2014-04-18 11:23:32 AM  

js34603: Lost Thought 00: Tyrone Slothrop: You really think the oligarchs are going to be hurt by this?

Of course not. But even the most evil dictators can't get away with starving their own citizens forever.

How have the citizen's lives changed at all? They're predicting 0% growth, which means...no change at all. They're not losing, they're not growing.

If they were starving before they still will be, and their opinion of Putin remains unchanged. If they weren't starving before why would they be now? Lack of growth doesn't mean people suddenly start starving and revolting.

Or is this just something you desperately want to be true because it suits your political affiliation?


I believe Russia needs to import much of its food.  Yes - a country that size fails to produce enough product to keep its people fed.

Zero growth would align with more expensive imports, I would think, so exacerbating the cost of living across the board.
 
2014-04-18 11:43:39 AM  

js34603: They're predicting 0% growth, which means...no change at all. They're not losing, they're not growing.


Absent inflation. Factor that in and not growing = losing.
 
2014-04-18 12:07:35 PM  

CheatCommando: Absent inflation. Factor that in and not growing = losing.


Yes, but it's not exactly losing a lot. Usual growth is what, 4%? 5? Let's say it's 10% inflation. Bad, but not even close to real suffering. Most assuredly not enough for Putin to lose his approval rating. For the next 2 years Putin's ratings are unassailable, baring actual complete cutting off Russian gas and oil.

You just don't understand the situation in Russia. It is a terrible shiathole by our standards, but never, ever, in a history of Russia Russians lived as well as they live under Putin. Never. It's not easy to overcome that.
 
2014-04-18 12:35:30 PM  

Tyrone Slothrop: You really think the oligarchs are going to be hurt by this?


Not hurt, but annoyed, which is worse. After the first million dollars in the bank it's all vanity and ego. They don't like to see investments flounder.
 
2014-04-18 03:16:31 PM  
Scorpitron is reduced to a thin red paste:I believe Russia needs to import much of its food.  Yes - a country that size fails to produce enough product to keep its people fed.

Zero growth would align with more expensive imports, I would think, so exacerbating the cost of living across the board.


"A country of that size..."

It is either tundra or mountainous terrain. A horrible country. The USA is in such a geographical sweet spot it is stupid.
 
2014-04-18 05:33:32 PM  
Bread basket of Europe is an old description of Ukraine.
The flag is "Blue skies over fields of grain."

That is pretty much Ukraine's trump card.
 
2014-04-18 10:43:55 PM  
LOSING it? Does he even OWN one?
 
2014-04-19 01:11:35 AM  

js34603: Lost Thought 00: Tyrone Slothrop: You really think the oligarchs are going to be hurt by this?

Of course not. But even the most evil dictators can't get away with starving their own citizens forever.

How have the citizen's lives changed at all? They're predicting 0% growth, which means...no change at all. They're not losing, they're not growing.

If they were starving before they still will be, and their opinion of Putin remains unchanged. If they weren't starving before why would they be now? Lack of growth doesn't mean people suddenly start starving and revolting.

Or is this just something you desperately want to be true because it suits your political affiliation?

 Zero growth is usually a precoursor for a recession, because banks will be unwilling to give out loans, and factories will be less likely to invest, obviously because of the realistic expectation of zero growth.
Also zero growth sucks for people are less well off, because the outlook kinda sucks for them.---But yeah I agree with you. Assuming this is a short term crisis that will be solved in the near future as far as Russia is concerned, then there's no problem. (when I say as far as Russia is concerned, Ukraine just seems farked, long term farked.).
 
2014-04-19 01:14:51 AM  

Lost Thought 00: js34603: How have the citizen's lives changed at all? They're predicting 0% growth, which means...no change at all. They're not losing, they're not growing.

0% growth means you are losing ground to inflation and population increases (maybe Russia doesn't have the growing population problem). Basically, it puts you further behind everyone else who is growing.


Not true, economic growth accounts for inflation. Otherwise Russia would truly be farked, but well, it's adjusted for inflation.

Russias population has recently stabilized, so that's not really a factor. It used to be shrinking in fact.
 
2014-04-19 01:20:03 AM  

Betep: Bread basket of Europe is an old description of Ukraine.
The flag is "Blue skies over fields of grain."

That is pretty much Ukraine's trump card.


Who are they going to sell grain too? Everyone has food, its an abundant resource.

Yes, it's not equally distributed. But you're not going to get rich by selling food to countries with starvation problems for obvious reasons. No one looks at Starvasistan and thinks "hey, I could make a fortune selling these people food".


Maybe they could turn it into fuel or something.
 
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