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(CNN)   Putin warns of civil war in Ukraine between the Ukrainian army and the brave freedom fighters of the Russian 45th Airborne Regiment (Warning, auto-play video)   (cnn.com ) divider line
    More: Scary, Vladimir Putin, Ukraine, Airborne Regiment, Russians, Ukrainian, civil wars, Western Allies, clip shows  
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2318 clicks; posted to Main » on 16 Apr 2014 at 11:44 AM (2 years ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2014-04-16 10:29:32 AM  
I can understand wanting to fight for your freedom. I can understand wanting to fight to hold your country together.

I can't understand wanting to fight to break away from one country and join with another. It just seems kind of beta.
 
2014-04-16 10:35:55 AM  
After the fighting there will be a poll, wherein 100% of Ukranians will beg to be part of Russia.
 
2014-04-16 11:45:53 AM  
Time for Putin to "go."
 
2014-04-16 11:47:10 AM  

unlikely: After the fighting there will be a poll, wherein 100% of Ukranians will beg to be part of Russia.


Handle checks out.
 
2014-04-16 11:47:57 AM  

HotIgneous Intruder: Time for Putin to "go."


His time is almost up.  The Russian economy is going to get worse for at least the next two years because of this, probably longer.  That initial rush of patriotism will turn to dissatisfaction and unrest in a year or so.
 
2014-04-16 11:50:12 AM  
Jesus Christ.  Putin will take Ukraine, won't he?  And no one will be able to stop him.  Ukraine can't fight off Russia.
 
2014-04-16 11:50:16 AM  

Incontinent_dog_and_monkey_rodeo: HotIgneous Intruder: Time for Putin to "go."

His time is almost up.  The Russian economy is going to get worse for at least the next two years because of this, probably longer.  That initial rush of patriotism will turn to dissatisfaction and unrest in a year or so.


Fear of his bare chest will keep them in line.
 
2014-04-16 11:50:40 AM  
If the Ukrainians were smart, they would snipe at the airborne troops from far away. Using tanks and mechanized infantry is just going to escalate the choices Putin makes.

Killing a few Ukrainian citizens who mysteriously turn up in Russian military hospitals and are mourned by their Russian families all over Russia won't be the excuse Putin is looking for.
 
2014-04-16 11:52:07 AM  
It's now to the point where Ukraine needs to worry more about the Russian troop who are already in Ukraine, than the ones on the border.

/Cousin Yuri, down from Volgograd for a visit. Of course he brought body armor, grenades and an AK-47!
 
2014-04-16 11:52:14 AM  

Incontinent_dog_and_monkey_rodeo: HotIgneous Intruder: Time for Putin to "go."

His time is almost up.  The Russian economy is going to get worse for at least the next two years because of this, probably longer.  That initial rush of patriotism will turn to dissatisfaction and unrest in a year or so.


Hence, a return to the good times of the Soviet era.
 
2014-04-16 11:52:34 AM  
Russia to Ukraine: "Stop hitting yourself!"
 
2014-04-16 11:52:47 AM  

AverageAmericanGuy: I can't understand wanting to fight to break away from one country and join with another.


Protip: Ukraine isn't really their country. These militiamen are almost certainly ethnically Russian and recently descended from Russian citizens. And I'm sure that Putin is looking nice and stable compared to the leaderless clusterfark occurring in Kiev.
 
2014-04-16 11:53:54 AM  

TheShavingofOccam123: If the Ukrainians were smart, they would snipe at the airborne troops from far away. Using tanks and mechanized infantry is just going to escalate the choices Putin makes.

Killing a few Ukrainian citizens who mysteriously turn up in Russian military hospitals and are mourned by their Russian families all over Russia won't be the excuse Putin is looking for.


Given how Putin dealt with the Chechens, I don't think asymmetric warfare is a great idea, either.
 
2014-04-16 11:56:13 AM  

AeAe: Jesus Christ.  Putin will take Ukraine, won't he?  And no one will be able to stop him.  Ukraine can't fight off Russia.


He can try, certain.  I, for one, am curious to see what happens when a major economy gets completely cut out of the global marketplace.

I imagine the first serious step will be to curtail any further food shipments into Russia.  They're still a major net importer of food stuffs.

At about the same time, the real sanctions will kick in, along with the EU formally terminating their contracts for Russian oil and LNG.  German and French nuclear reactors will be there to supply energy needs while Norway will be supplying oil for those things that require oil-based fuels.

And then Poland steps up and formally requests NATO assistance as they fear for their national sovereignty thanks to Russian aggression.

Which reminds me, are those NATO forces still in Ukraine for those wargames that were planned?  Because that could be an interesting twist.
 
2014-04-16 11:59:58 AM  
It's been a good run, Ukraine.
 
2014-04-16 12:06:39 PM  
Another Ukraine thread on Fark.com is another Ukraine thread full of uninformed yanks.
 
2014-04-16 12:07:48 PM  
Chechneya II perhaps.
 
2014-04-16 12:08:34 PM  

UNC_Samurai: TheShavingofOccam123: If the Ukrainians were smart, they would snipe at the airborne troops from far away. Using tanks and mechanized infantry is just going to escalate the choices Putin makes.

Killing a few Ukrainian citizens who mysteriously turn up in Russian military hospitals and are mourned by their Russian families all over Russia won't be the excuse Putin is looking for.

Given how Putin dealt with the Chechens, I don't think asymmetric warfare is a great idea, either.


True. It's a lousy set of choices he's given the Ukrainians. And Europe. And the US.
 
2014-04-16 12:10:05 PM  
I wonder what the Russians' plan is.
 
2014-04-16 12:14:45 PM  
WOLVERINES!!
 
2014-04-16 12:16:13 PM  
I have friends who think we should go to war over this, but when asked "how many American lives are you willing to sacrifice", they quickly shut down.

I picked a good time to let my enlistment lapse, seeing as how even after having occupied 2 countries for longer than someone in middle school has been alive, people still think war is a reasonable first reaction to anything that happens on the planet.
 
2014-04-16 12:18:06 PM  

Proximuscentauri: Another Ukraine thread on Fark.com is another Ukraine thread full of uninformed yanks.


Inform the yanks, wanker.
 
2014-04-16 12:19:59 PM  

Incontinent_dog_and_monkey_rodeo: HotIgneous Intruder: Time for Putin to "go."

His time is almost up.  The Russian economy is going to get worse for at least the next two years because of this, probably longer.  That initial rush of patriotism will turn to dissatisfaction and unrest in a year or so.


the Russian Economics Minister has already predicted probably 0.0-0.5% growth next year for Russia and that's with the apparently lame sanctions already in place. looking like it'll be in minus figures by the end of the year at the rate Pooty Poot is going.
 
2014-04-16 12:30:32 PM  

Infernalist: AeAe: Jesus Christ.  Putin will take Ukraine, won't he?  And no one will be able to stop him.  Ukraine can't fight off Russia.

He can try, certain.  I, for one, am curious to see what happens when a major economy gets completely cut out of the global marketplace.

I imagine the first serious step will be to curtail any further food shipments into Russia.  They're still a major net importer of food stuffs.

At about the same time, the real sanctions will kick in, along with the EU formally terminating their contracts for Russian oil and LNG.  German and French nuclear reactors will be there to supply energy needs while Norway will be supplying oil for those things that require oil-based fuels.

And then Poland steps up and formally requests NATO assistance as they fear for their national sovereignty thanks to Russian aggression.

Which reminds me, are those NATO forces still in Ukraine for those wargames that were planned?  Because that could be an interesting twist.



1 and 2 just aren't going to happen. The world won't stop sending food to Russia because that would ruin any opposition to Putin in Russia. When the Russian people are starving, Putin will have the perfect excuse to wage offensive war - he's out to save his people from the prejudice of the rest of the world. (First, they're oppressing Russians outside of Russia (See: Crimea, Ukraine). Then they're literally trying to starve Russia. You better believe that there would be hundreds or thousands of news stories flooded over all Russian media of atrocities in the Baltics and Poland against ethnic Russians, which would be utter BS but enough Russians would believe it to give Putin a huge base of support). So starving Russia is simply giving Putin an easy justification for offensive war.

2, Europe just doesn't care enough about Ukraine or Russian aggression against other what many people see as just other Russians. (Yes, technically Ukrainians aren't Russian, but they're not Russian in the same way that Scots aren't English.) Europe isn't going to cut off the gas to save Ukraine.

3 is the only thing that I think is likely. And it will have no effect on the situation because Poland is a NATO country already and there is absolutely no one in the world who is sane enough to function in society who believes that NATO will be the aggressor against Russia. At best NATO would try to goad Putin into throwing the first punch which would justify self-defense, but even that's stretching it as far as NATO is concerned.
 
2014-04-16 12:30:36 PM  

Proximuscentauri: Another Ukraine thread on Fark.com is another Ukraine thread full of uninformed yanks.


Nothing says "I know more than everyone else" like a post filled with cogent and relevant information.

Too bad your post was nothing like that.
 
2014-04-16 12:31:24 PM  

AverageAmericanGuy: I can understand wanting to fight for your freedom. I can understand wanting to fight to hold your country together.

I can't understand wanting to fight to break away from one country and join with another. It just seems kind of beta.


Texas.
 
2014-04-16 12:31:37 PM  

BigNumber12: AverageAmericanGuy: I can't understand wanting to fight to break away from one country and join with another.

Protip: Ukraine isn't really their country. These militiamen are almost certainly ethnically Russian and recently descended from Russian citizens*. And I'm sure that Putin is looking nice and stable compared to the leaderless clusterfark occurring in Kiev.


*And who are themselves Russian, have Russian military training, equipment, and provisions, and left their homes in Russia to "protest" in Ukraine.

FTFY
 
2014-04-16 12:32:00 PM  

RoxtarRyan: I have friends who think we should go to war over this, but when asked "how many American lives are you willing to sacrifice", they quickly shut down.

I picked a good time to let my enlistment lapse, seeing as how even after having occupied 2 countries for longer than someone in middle school has been alive, people still think war is a reasonable first reaction to anything that happens on the planet.


you don't really go to war with Russia anyways for the same reason Russia won't go to war with us

both sides have too much to lose by going all-in not just militarily but also economically... nobody in the Pentagon wants a fleet at the bottom fo the Black Sea and nobody in Kremlin wants 40k troops turned into dog food... Russia's economy is also top-heavy and going all-in would have huge long-term consequences that annexing parts of the Ukraine could never pay for and Putin would end up a lame-duck globally, hence this whole "poke a hornet's nest with a stick" strategy because nobody wants to end up a loser
 
2014-04-16 12:33:17 PM  

CygnusDarius: AverageAmericanGuy: I can understand wanting to fight for your freedom. I can understand wanting to fight to hold your country together.

I can't understand wanting to fight to break away from one country and join with another. It just seems kind of beta.

Texas.


Heh, yeah. Sorry about that. No hard feelings okay, hombre?
 
2014-04-16 12:40:04 PM  

Proximuscentauri: Another Ukraine thread on Fark.com is another Ukraine thread full of uninformed yanks.


Hey. We know all about BP in Azerbeijan. And BP in Iraq. And BP in Russia. And BP in Ukraine. And BP in Crimea. And BP in the Gulf of Mexico. And BP in Prudhoe Bay. And BP in Texas City.

Hey and lookie here.

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2014-03-24/bp-rosneft-stake-increas es -russian-risk-as-sanctions-hurt-stock

Looks like Big Dumb America is about to fight another 10 year oil war to help BP get back its oil revenues. Like it did in Iraq.

/How do you say "Basra" in Russian?
 
2014-04-16 12:41:30 PM  

AeAe: Jesus Christ.  Putin will take Ukraine, won't he?  And no one will be able to stop him.  Ukraine can't fight off Russia.


Ukraine can fight off Russia. Not easily, not safely, and they would be underdogs, but Ukraine could fight off Russia.

(warning: numbers pulled out of my arse coming up simply to illustrate my point, not to say "This Is The Facts On The Ground".)

Ukraine can't fight off their own ethnic Russian civilians who have decided to throw their lot in with Russia and are acting as a civilian shield for many of the Russian activities. That's where the problem is - sure, you may have 10% of the "dissidents" who are actually active members of Russian special forces (be it outright military, political agitators, etc. Simply Russian nationals who are in Ukraine to specifically foment chaos in the Ukraine.) but that leaves 90% who are Ukrainian citizens of ethnic Russian heritage who are being used to split the Ukraine up. And it's only about 10% of the entire Ethnic Russian population in the Ukraine who are actively agitating - Sergi and Ivan are out there throwing rocks through windows and wearing Balacalvas, whooping it up with the rest of the young agitators. But Ivana, Pavel, Yvgeni, Alex, Pitor and Yana are simply rolling their eyes as they grumble about their cousins and brothers being stupid. The minute you kill Sergi or Ivan, Ivana, Pavel, Yvgeni, Alex, Pitor and Yana decide that family comes first, so they stand up against the people who killed their family. So instead of 2 people, you've got 6 people to fight. 6 people who weren't involved yesterday.

It's really hard to fight against that sort of enemy.
 
2014-04-16 12:42:28 PM  
www.zerohedge.com
 
2014-04-16 12:43:18 PM  
AeAe

Jesus Christ. Putin will take Ukraine, won't he? And no one will be able to stop him. Ukraine can't fight off Russia.

They foolishly disarmed when a democrat president signed agreements that the USA would defend them.
 
2014-04-16 12:44:11 PM  

TheShavingofOccam123: /How do you say "Basra" in Russian?


"Stalingrad"
 
2014-04-16 12:44:29 PM  

CygnusDarius: AverageAmericanGuy: I can understand wanting to fight for your freedom. I can understand wanting to fight to hold your country together.

I can't understand wanting to fight to break away from one country and join with another. It just seems kind of beta.

Texas.


Texas was an independent nation for 10 years.
 
2014-04-16 12:44:34 PM  

blindio: *And who are themselves Russian, have Russian military training, equipment, and provisions, and left their homes in Russia to "protest" in Ukraine.


Well, it worked for the Palestinians.

/if you consider "getting the whole world's sympathies" to be working
//if any democratic government survives in Ukraine, we will eventually be praising the noble Russian "freedom fighters" who only want their land back after the evil Ukrainians colonized them and stole it
///facts be damned, we want to feel good about hating democracy in spite of everything it's done for us
 
2014-04-16 12:44:42 PM  
Stalin's final triumph.  He encouraged migration by Russians to Ukraine, and now those areas are "Russian". He learned it from the Brits who did the same with Northern Ireland.
 
2014-04-16 12:45:54 PM  

Techhell: TheShavingofOccam123: /How do you say "Basra" in Russian?

"Stalingrad"


"Tannenberg"
 
2014-04-16 12:46:45 PM  

OnlyM3: AeAe

Jesus Christ. Putin will take Ukraine, won't he? And no one will be able to stop him. Ukraine can't fight off Russia.
They foolishly disarmed when a democrat president signed agreements that the USA would defend them.


Completely incorrect. The agreement after nuclear disarmament promised we wouldn't violate their sovereignty. Russia also signed and has now violated that agreement. There is no mutual defense treaty between the U.S. and Ukraine.
 
2014-04-16 12:48:59 PM  

AverageAmericanGuy: I can understand wanting to fight for your freedom. I can understand wanting to fight to hold your country together.

I can't understand wanting to fight to break away from one country and join with another. It just seems kind of beta.


The Kiev Post actually had a pretty good article that tangentially addressed this, if you're interested.

macross87: I read on VoiceofRussia that Russian media believes Ukrainian rebels are finding Personal Armored Vehicles and driving then around town.


They're not "finding" them. unarmed pro Russian protesters, with the help of armed militia, surround & seize the APCs. The Ukrainian soldiers were then sent packing.
 
2014-04-16 12:49:36 PM  
sometimes i wish the US would use the same strategies that Russia is using to take over Mexico
 
2014-04-16 12:50:21 PM  

OnlyM3: AeAe

Jesus Christ. Putin will take Ukraine, won't he? And no one will be able to stop him. Ukraine can't fight off Russia.
They foolishly disarmed when a democrat president signed agreements that the USA would defend them.


That the USA would respect their territorial integrity. Not the same as defending them. It was probably implied or stated verbally that the USA would come to their defense... but we can't keep going to this canard to try to justify the USA not coming in to defend the Ukraine. Or the UK - who also signed the Budapest Memorandum - seems to be getting a free pass on this from North American media.

The USA might well be in total violation of the spirit of the memorandum. They might even be reneging on verbal commitments which were never put down in paper. (probably because they would never have been approved by Congress or the Senate in time, if at all, to get the Nukes out of the Ukraine before they mysteriously disappeared. Remember, Republicans have been going nuts on Democratic presidents since 1992, not just 2008.) But the letter of the law is firmly in favour of the USA doing exactly what it's doing now - diddly squat. Morally, ethically, maybe it can be argued that more should be done, but legally speaking, it's pretty open and shut.

/Any British Farkers want to chime in on that? Is the UK getting any flak for not going into the Ukraine because they signed this "Treaty" with the Ukraine?
 
2014-04-16 12:52:11 PM  

kkinnison: sometimes i wish the US would use the same strategies that Russia is using to take over Mexico


Why the hell would we want Mexico?
 
2014-04-16 12:55:55 PM  

blindio: *And who are themselves Russian, have Russian military training, equipment, and provisions, and left their homes in Russia to "protest" in Ukraine.


Well yes, they're obviously there too. I was trying to be polite by only discussing the actual Ukrainian citizens that AAG was wondering at.
 
2014-04-16 12:58:06 PM  

WillyChase: kkinnison: sometimes i wish the US would use the same strategies that Russia is using to take over Mexico

Why the hell would we want Mexico?


Oil.
 
2014-04-16 01:00:46 PM  

kkinnison: sometimes i wish the US would use the same strategies that Russia is using to take over Mexico


Oh yes, if there's one thing that we need, it's suddenly extending all of our various social security and medicaid-type programs to 120 million Mexicans who haven't been paying into those programs their entire lives.

Or are you thinking straight-up non-citizenship resource-extraction type Colony?
 
2014-04-16 01:05:37 PM  
Well, somebody is going have to call the amberlamps pretty soon.
 
2014-04-16 01:07:49 PM  
So they found MH370 in the Ukraine?  Can't think of another reason CNN would be reporting on this.
 
2014-04-16 01:10:14 PM  

Marmilman: AverageAmericanGuy: I can understand wanting to fight for your freedom. I can understand wanting to fight to hold your country together.

I can't understand wanting to fight to break away from one country and join with another. It just seems kind of beta.

The Kiev Post actually had a pretty good article that tangentially addressed this, if you're interested.

macross87: I read on VoiceofRussia that Russian media believes Ukrainian rebels are finding Personal Armored Vehicles and driving then around town.

They're not "finding" them. unarmed pro Russian protesters, with the help of armed militiaRussian troops, surround & seize the APCs. The Ukrainian soldiers were then sent packing.


I believe we can drop the euphemisms.
 
2014-04-16 01:10:24 PM  
This is like a basement toilet behind a mainline clog. It just keeps getting shiattier and shiattier and we can't figure out how to stop it.
 
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