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(Quartz)   After Russia's Gazprom hikes natural gas prices 80% for it's Ukrainian customers, Ukraine this morning reminded Russia that its natural gas pipeline to Europe all run through Ukraine, who can shut them off if they want   (qz.com) divider line 128
    More: Interesting, natural gas prices, Gazprom, Vladimir Putin, Russia, Europe, Ukraine, Ukrainian, Government of Ukraine  
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10290 clicks; posted to Main » on 09 Apr 2014 at 3:24 PM (42 weeks ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



128 Comments   (+0 »)
   
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2014-04-09 01:42:25 PM  
Which might be construed as an act of war by Russia. This might not end well.
 
2014-04-09 01:51:09 PM  
Isn't this the whole reason why Russia wants to annex Crimea?
 
2014-04-09 01:52:54 PM  

nmrsnr: Which might be construed as an act of war by Russia. This might not end well.


Sure it will.  For Russia.
 
2014-04-09 01:58:19 PM  

dittybopper: nmrsnr: Which might be construed as an act of war by Russia. This might not end well.

Sure it will.  For Russia.


In what scenario does it end well for Russia?
 
2014-04-09 02:09:13 PM  

cameroncrazy1984: dittybopper: nmrsnr: Which might be construed as an act of war by Russia. This might not end well.

Sure it will.  For Russia.

In what scenario does it end well for Russia?


They end up completely controlling the Ukraine like they did before the breakup of the Soviet Union.

No one thinks the Ukrainians will be able to mount a serious resistance, and *WE* certainly aren't going to go to war with Russia over the Ukraine.

They've been gearing up for it.  You know it's going to happen.
 
2014-04-09 02:44:14 PM  
DO IT! DO IT!
 
2014-04-09 02:52:28 PM  

nmrsnr: Which might be construed as an act of war by Russia. This might not end well.


Ukraine doesn't actually have to shut the gas off... just the fact that they've said this out loud has probably already had an effect on the Gazprom stock. You are right in that Ukraine would be smart not to blow up the pipes... but holding them hostage is different.
 
2014-04-09 03:29:52 PM  

Donnchadha: Isn't this the whole reason why Russia wants to annex Crimea Ukraine?


FTFY
 
2014-04-09 03:31:57 PM  
"an effect on the Gazprom stock "

gazprom stock is a joke. nearly all of the real value of the company is held privately, including by its de facto majority shareholder, vladimir putin.

the stock price of gazprom is like a flag on a flagpole that the gazprom/putin inner circle moves up and down to signal whatever they feel like signalling that day.

see also, VTB bank, same basic story.
 
2014-04-09 03:33:58 PM  
If Ukraine flips that switch, I think (despite how it might be initially painful for them), Europe will silently be cheering.
 
2014-04-09 03:40:44 PM  
How did subby manage to use "it's" incorrectly, and then use "its" correctly in the headline?
 
2014-04-09 03:41:39 PM  

Alassra: If Ukraine flips that switch, I think (despite how it might be initially painful for them), Europe will silently be cheering.


And reaching for their sweaters.
 
2014-04-09 03:43:13 PM  
dittybopper:
No one thinks the Ukrainians will be able to mount a serious resistance, and *WE* certainly aren't going to go to war with Russia over the Ukraine.


Maybe not in terms of being able to stop the Russians from rolling over, but in West Ukraine you can bet there would be a very healthy insurgency.

And unlike Chechnya, it would be right on Europe's doorstep.
 
2014-04-09 03:45:47 PM  
Sounds like the perfect pretext for war.  Everything is going according to plan.
 
2014-04-09 03:47:20 PM  
I think there are some grammar issues with the headline but it's 80 degrees and almost happy hour
 
2014-04-09 03:48:31 PM  

nmrsnr: Which might be construed as an act of war by Russia. This might not end well.


img59.imageshack.us
 
2014-04-09 03:49:10 PM  

kbronsito: Ukraine doesn't actually have to shut the gas off... just the fact that they've said this out loud has probably already had an effect on the Gazprom stock.


Russian government owns Gazprom stock.

Russian government doesn't care about the value of the Gazprom stock because they are not going to sell it, ever. Gazprom stock may fall below zero and Russia will not care, because it's not interested in the value of Gazprom stocks. Only in the revenue from Gazprom selling of the oil.

kbronsito: You are right in that Ukraine would be smart not to blow up the pipes... but holding them hostage is different.


Ukraine once tried to hold the pipes hostage. That's why Nord Stream pipeline was born, directly from Russia to Germany. Also, large gas storages were built in Europe, and I bet my hat they were filled with gas right from the first moment there were disturbances in Ukraine.

Ukraine tried to take part of gas going to Europe for itself. Didn't go well. Stockholm court have ordered Ukraine to return the stolen gas to Russia.

Putin doesn't react well to blackmail. And if the pipes will be turned off, Putin will likely be able to continue to sell gas to Europe, while Ukraine will suffer total crush of its economy and industry, completely dependent on Russian gas and oil. That is, the part of economy and industry which haven't crushed already...

Europe is ready to sell gas to Ukraine, but only for market price - or in other words, the same price Putin offers right now.
 
2014-04-09 03:49:33 PM  
Besides the horrible engrish, subby is factually wrong, half the gas goes thought the Ukraine, per TFA?
 
2014-04-09 03:50:47 PM  

Gyro the Greek Sandwich Pirate: dittybopper:
No one thinks the Ukrainians will be able to mount a serious resistance, and *WE* certainly aren't going to go to war with Russia over the Ukraine.


Maybe not in terms of being able to stop the Russians from rolling over, but in West Ukraine you can bet there would be a very healthy insurgency.

And unlike Chechnya, it would be right on Europe's doorstep.


Ukraine used to have nukes, before they agreed to give them up. Any bets on them having restarted their program since it's become obvious the US and UK aren't backing up their end of the Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances? Any idea how long that would take?
 
2014-04-09 03:50:48 PM  

Grahor: kbronsito: Ukraine doesn't actually have to shut the gas off... just the fact that they've said this out loud has probably already had an effect on the Gazprom stock.

Russian government owns Gazprom stock.

Russian government doesn't care about the value of the Gazprom stock because they are not going to sell it, ever. Gazprom stock may fall below zero and Russia will not care, because it's not interested in the value of Gazprom stocks. Only in the revenue from Gazprom selling of the oil.

kbronsito: You are right in that Ukraine would be smart not to blow up the pipes... but holding them hostage is different.

Ukraine once tried to hold the pipes hostage. That's why Nord Stream pipeline was born, directly from Russia to Germany. Also, large gas storages were built in Europe, and I bet my hat they were filled with gas right from the first moment there were disturbances in Ukraine.

Ukraine tried to take part of gas going to Europe for itself. Didn't go well. Stockholm court have ordered Ukraine to return the stolen gas to Russia.

Putin doesn't react well to blackmail. And if the pipes will be turned off, Putin will likely be able to continue to sell gas to Europe, while Ukraine will suffer total crush of its economy and industry, completely dependent on Russian gas and oil. That is, the part of economy and industry which haven't crushed already...

Europe is ready to sell gas to Ukraine, but only for market price - or in other words, the same price Putin offers right now.


You know how I know you didn't read the article?
 
2014-04-09 03:56:30 PM  

Alassra: If Ukraine flips that switch, I think (despite how it might be initially painful for them), Europe will silently be cheering.


Which Europe? Germany has its own gas pipeline from Russia, so Germany will not be affected. However, Slovenia, Slovakia, Chech, Bulgary, Greece will see their economy crush and burn, because natural gas is used not just for heating, but mostly for powering the industry. And they'll scream bloody murder at Ukraine. They certainly doesn't love Russia and want to stop it, but not for the price of their own economy crushing. This is a sacrifice they aren't ready to make.
 
2014-04-09 04:00:52 PM  
I wonder if the Russians in eastern Ukraine have considered that they are between 2 groups who might fight on their land.
 
2014-04-09 04:00:58 PM  

dittybopper: cameroncrazy1984: dittybopper: nmrsnr: Which might be construed as an act of war by Russia. This might not end well.

Sure it will.  For Russia.

In what scenario does it end well for Russia?

They end up completely controlling the Ukraine like they did before the breakup of the Soviet Union.

No one thinks the Ukrainians will be able to mount a serious resistance, and *WE* certainly aren't going to go to war with Russia over the Ukraine.

They've been gearing up for it.  You know it's going to happen.


Actually, the Ukrainian army is about a quarter the size of the Russian, and has the advantage that all of their military is located in Ukraine, while the Russians still have to commit vast numbers of troops to other regions.  A lot of those troops are in Chechnya, who could decide to take advantage of Putin's distraction to light the whole region on fire.

Plus get this, after Russia and China, the biggest manufacturer of AK ammunition are probably American factories.  Uncle Sam could easily order up a few hundred million rounds, and ship them over to the Ukrainians easily enough.  Of course this would push ammo prices in the states up yet again, but for some reason, I don't think that would be a major concern for the Obama administration.  Throw in a few thousand LAW rockets, some claymore mines, and a hell of a lot of Stinger missiles, and all of a Sudden Ukraine isn't a pushover, and America hasn't gotten sucked into a war with Russia.  It's what I would do.
 
2014-04-09 04:01:08 PM  
Grahor: ...Greece will see their economy crush and burn...

It can still do that?
 
2014-04-09 04:01:24 PM  

dancindan84: Any bets on them having restarted their program since it's become obvious the US and UK aren't backing up their end of the Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances?


Oh, they are certainly going to. It's a very popular idea in Ukraine.

dancindan84: Any idea how long that would take?


Let me think... Right now Ukraine is collecting money for its army through sms. Like, you know, "send sms at that number if you love your Country and want to stop Russians from capturing it!" That's mostly for soldiers' wages and oil (do you know that army consumes unholy amount of oil?)

So, considering financial investments necessary for nuclear development... mmmm... Oh, it's 2 months, 11 days and 7 hours after they fix their economy! And that'll probably just take no more than a year after Ukraine will stop being the country with most corruption in Europe, even more than Russia and Moldova. So, like, eleventy forevers?
 
2014-04-09 04:01:48 PM  

CruJones: Grahor: kbronsito: Ukraine doesn't actually have to shut the gas off... just the fact that they've said this out loud has probably already had an effect on the Gazprom stock.

Russian government owns Gazprom stock.

Russian government doesn't care about the value of the Gazprom stock because they are not going to sell it, ever. Gazprom stock may fall below zero and Russia will not care, because it's not interested in the value of Gazprom stocks. Only in the revenue from Gazprom selling of the oil.

kbronsito: You are right in that Ukraine would be smart not to blow up the pipes... but holding them hostage is different.

Ukraine once tried to hold the pipes hostage. That's why Nord Stream pipeline was born, directly from Russia to Germany. Also, large gas storages were built in Europe, and I bet my hat they were filled with gas right from the first moment there were disturbances in Ukraine.

Ukraine tried to take part of gas going to Europe for itself. Didn't go well. Stockholm court have ordered Ukraine to return the stolen gas to Russia.

Putin doesn't react well to blackmail. And if the pipes will be turned off, Putin will likely be able to continue to sell gas to Europe, while Ukraine will suffer total crush of its economy and industry, completely dependent on Russian gas and oil. That is, the part of economy and industry which haven't crushed already...

Europe is ready to sell gas to Ukraine, but only for market price - or in other words, the same price Putin offers right now.

You know how I know you didn't read the article?


In his Russia, article sends you to Gulag
 
2014-04-09 04:02:34 PM  

CruJones: Grahor:
Putin doesn't react well to blackmail. blah blah blah,,,

You know how I know you didn't read the article?

don't bother pointing out the obvious,
Grahor is russian shill
Lost Ukraine = brilliant move by Putin!
Invade tiny peninsula where they already had bases = brilliant move by Putin!
Turkey threatens to shut their fleet in the Black Seal = brilliant move by Putin!
Sanctions costing Russia over 100 Billion this year = brilliant move by Putin!

you get the idea, the man is a GENIUS!
 
2014-04-09 04:02:43 PM  
This is Russia creating a 'problem' that they can resolve in an act of concession, to flip the west the bird, but re-affirm their control over what it was they really wanted.

It's not unlike the situation with the Syrian chemical weapons. The west makes an offhand suggestion of what compromise would look like, if Putin wasn't such an evil bastard, and Putin accepts. (Apparently flipping off the west is suitable cover for making concessions) The west got to ignore the chemical weapon problem. Putin got to keep his port and client state. And everyone moves on from the actual problem having gotten what they wanted (except the Syrians).

So In this case: Russia makes a little trouble outside Crimea, the west demonizes Putin and and says he's incapable of a reasonable compromise like, i dunno, a coalition of nations hammering out a long term contract to ensure the security of the pipeline and Ukraine's (new) borders. Putin accepts, looking like a stud for (again) making the west look like assholes. The west gets some energy security and the appearance of border stability. Putin gets to keep his port and client state (and likely a tidy profit for re-negotiating energy contracts with stressed counter-parties). And everyone moves on from the actual problem, having gotten what they wanted (except the Ukrainians).
 
2014-04-09 04:03:23 PM  

CruJones: You know how I know you didn't read the article?


No. Educate me. I'm holding my breath in anticipation.
 
2014-04-09 04:07:03 PM  
Hey, Russia...

i.imgur.com
 
2014-04-09 04:08:59 PM  

Gawdzila: Hey, Russia...

[i.imgur.com image 281x211]


.......on the heels of a warm-ish winter.  Gas reserves are pretty high all over the continent right now.
 
2014-04-09 04:09:10 PM  

dancindan84: Grahor: ...Greece will see their economy crush and burn...

It can still do that?


There is this little piece, you can't see it from here, but it's there. Right over there! That still hasn't burn completely to the ground.

I can't see it from here either, but I'm told it's nice
 
2014-04-09 04:09:12 PM  
kbronsito:  You are right in that Ukraine would be smart not to blow up the pipes... but holding them hostage is different.

Stupid question here:  Are there any valves that are under Ukrainian control?  i.e., if they wanted to stop gas flow across their territory without damaging the pipes, how hard is that to do?
 
2014-04-09 04:09:13 PM  

Grahor: CruJones: You know how I know you didn't read the article?

No. Educate me. I'm holding my breath in anticipation.


You're so cute when you lie.
 
2014-04-09 04:09:30 PM  

Grahor: Ukraine once tried to hold the pipes hostage. That's why Nord Stream pipeline was born, directly from Russia to Germany.


Sort of. It actually runs through Danish territorial waters for 47 miles.
 
2014-04-09 04:10:06 PM  

Grahor: CruJones: You know how I know you didn't read the article?

No. Educate me. I'm holding my breath in anticipation.


Keep holding. We'll get the education part in about 10 minutes.
 
2014-04-09 04:11:39 PM  
Shut it off? No my friend we will blow it up with drones that will show those Ruskies.
 
2014-04-09 04:12:31 PM  

tinyarena: CruJones: Grahor:
Putin doesn't react well to blackmail. blah blah blah,,,

You know how I know you didn't read the article?
don't bother pointing out the obvious,
Grahor is russian shill
Lost Ukraine = brilliant move by Putin!
Invade tiny peninsula where they already had bases = brilliant move by Putin!
Turkey threatens to shut their fleet in the Black Seal = brilliant move by Putin!
Sanctions costing Russia over 100 Billion this year = brilliant move by Putin!

you get the idea, the man is a GENIUS!

Before I finished the first sentence in that brilliant response, my inner monologue switched to 80s movie Russian accent.

 
2014-04-09 04:15:40 PM  
WHO CONTROL BARTERTOWN?
 
2014-04-09 04:16:39 PM  

Slaves2Darkness: Shut it off? No my friend we will blow it up with drones that will show those Ruskies.


FEED ME RUSSIANS!

www.fas.org

chivethebrigade.files.wordpress.com

m0.i.pbase.com
 
2014-04-09 04:16:54 PM  

flondrix: kbronsito:  You are right in that Ukraine would be smart not to blow up the pipes... but holding them hostage is different.

Stupid question here:  Are there any valves that are under Ukrainian control?  i.e., if they wanted to stop gas flow across their territory without damaging the pipes, how hard is that to do?


IDK how this works... but i've seen the pipes on various maps and these pipes go for long stretches of Ukraine, which is a fairly large country. there would have to be valves at some sort of regular interval just for safety issues, right? I would expect that interval to be shorter than the length of Ukraine.
 
2014-04-09 04:18:36 PM  

rev. dave: I wonder if the Russians in eastern Ukraine have considered that they are between 2 groups who might fight on their land.


No. They don't see the invasion of Russia in the East Ukraine going much different than in Crimea. Certainly no one expects fight to the death in the East Ukraine.

If Russia were to invade Central and West Ukraine, that would be different. Central and West Ukraine will fight to the death. That's why Putin will not invade Central and West Ukraine. But invasion to East Ukraine will unlikely to cause an all-out war.

Armed forces of Ukraine are serving by territory, so in Crimea the majority of Ukrainian armed forces were Crimeans. That's why Ukrainian army in Crimea (18000 strong) in its majority joined Russian army (3000 at this moment have already became active soldiers of Russian army) or remained in Crimea as Russian citizens.

By the way, Ukrainian army, I think, somewhere 100000 strong. Considering that they've just lost 15000 or so in Crimea to Russians, that's 15% reduction in Ukrainian army without a singe shot...

Similarly, Ukrainian forces in East Ukraine are unreliable. For example, in current disturbances with pro-Russian groups in Donetsk, at least 30% of police actively sabotaged the efforts of Kiev to arrest those groups, even at the risk of being fired (that's by the words of Kiev's government). Ukrainian army in Donetsk and Luhansk may not join Russian army, but neither they are going to fight to death.
 
2014-04-09 04:26:01 PM  

flondrix: Are there any valves that are under Ukrainian control?


All of them are completely under Ukrainian control.

flondrix: i.e., if they wanted to stop gas flow across their territory without damaging the pipes, how hard is that to do?


Physically, they are completely in control of them. They can stop gas flowing at any moment.

Contractually, however, they have obligations. Not just between them and Russia, but obligations to other European states. By stopping the gas they'll break those obligations. They've already done it once and were punished for it by European courts. So, they can do it at any moment, but it has long-term consequences.
 
2014-04-09 04:26:38 PM  
[m0.i.pbase.com image 800x542]

That's some really horrendous nose art.
 
2014-04-09 04:27:26 PM  

nmrsnr: Which might be construed as an act of war by Russia. This might not end well.


In Europe, where you have a "right" to buy things, sure it does.

But doesnt France make all its power via nuclear, and Germany uses solar?
 
2014-04-09 04:28:07 PM  

Grahor: Ukrainian army in Donetsk and Luhansk may not join Russian army, but neither they are going to fight to death.


The Ukrainian air force won't fight for eastern Ukraine in Donetsk. They'll fight for Ukraine in Moscow.
 
2014-04-09 04:36:30 PM  

Grahor: Which Europe? Germany has its own gas pipeline from Russia, so Germany will not be affected. However, Slovenia, Slovakia, Chech, Bulgary, Greece will see their economy crush and burn, because natural gas is used not just for heating, but mostly for powering the industry. And they'll scream bloody murder at Ukraine. They certainly doesn't love Russia and want to stop it, but not for the price of their own economy crushing. This is a sacrifice they aren't ready to make.


"I'm Vladmir Putin, and I approve of this message because if capitalism taught me anything its the value of paid propaganda- er- marketing. Da, marketing."
 
2014-04-09 04:36:55 PM  

Some Coke Drinking Guy: dittybopper: cameroncrazy1984: dittybopper: nmrsnr: Which might be construed as an act of war by Russia. This might not end well.

Sure it will.  For Russia.

In what scenario does it end well for Russia?

They end up completely controlling the Ukraine like they did before the breakup of the Soviet Union.

No one thinks the Ukrainians will be able to mount a serious resistance, and *WE* certainly aren't going to go to war with Russia over the Ukraine.

They've been gearing up for it.  You know it's going to happen.

Actually, the Ukrainian army is about a quarter the size of the Russian, and has the advantage that all of their military is located in Ukraine, while the Russians still have to commit vast numbers of troops to other regions.  A lot of those troops are in Chechnya, who could decide to take advantage of Putin's distraction to light the whole region on fire.

Plus get this, after Russia and China, the biggest manufacturer of AK ammunition are probably American factories.  Uncle Sam could easily order up a few hundred million rounds, and ship them over to the Ukrainians easily enough.  Of course this would push ammo prices in the states up yet again, but for some reason, I don't think that would be a major concern for the Obama administration.  Throw in a few thousand LAW rockets, some claymore mines, and a hell of a lot of Stinger missiles, and all of a Sudden Ukraine isn't a pushover, and America hasn't gotten sucked into a war with Russia.  It's what I would do.


Not to mention, the Urkaine is where the Soviets generally got a lot of their bad-asses and nice military equipment back in the Cold War days. It was one of the keys parts of the Soviet Union, which is why Putin wants it back so badly.
 
2014-04-09 04:47:12 PM  
www.americavictorious.com
 
2014-04-09 04:51:14 PM  

theorellior: Grahor: CruJones: You know how I know you didn't read the article?

No. Educate me. I'm holding my breath in anticipation.

You're so cute when you lie.


Grahor isn't lying, he doesn't know how you know...because he didn't read the article.
 
2014-04-09 04:51:37 PM  
I cut off your milkshake?

nymag.com
 
2014-04-09 04:53:50 PM  

tinyarena: CruJones: Grahor:
Putin doesn't react well to blackmail. blah blah blah,,,

You know how I know you didn't read the article?
don't bother pointing out the obvious,
Grahor is russian shill
Lost Ukraine = brilliant move by Putin!
Invade tiny peninsula where they already had bases = brilliant move by Putin!
Turkey threatens to shut their fleet in the Black Seal = brilliant move by Putin!
Sanctions costing Russia over 100 Billion this year = brilliant move by Putin!

you get the idea, the man is a GENIUS!


Yeah, nothing like driving Ukraine into the arms of the Europeans, and the Europeans into the arms of the Americans. Simply brilliant, Mr. Putin.
 
2014-04-09 05:01:18 PM  

This text is now purple: The Ukrainian air force won't fight for eastern Ukraine in Donetsk. They'll fight for Ukraine in Moscow.


You know, it's comments like this that make me fume. Let's forget for a second that Ukraine has, like, 10% of active planes compared to Russia. (like, 80 Sukhoy planes of all kinds, none last generation, against 1080 Sukhoy planes for Russia, with at least half last generation).

But the moment one single plane will attack Moscow, it's all over for Ukraine. Childish desire "to punish impudent hohols for their loutishness" will turn into steely determination to exterminate "the foreign enemy that dared to touch the holy soil of motherland". Russia will simply declare total mobilization, cut all the talks with the West, probably including cutting all the gas for Europe, and will just overwhelm Ukraine without any consideration for its own losses.

That's why there is no chance in hell anyone in Ukraine will even consider that type of escalation.
 
2014-04-09 05:03:26 PM  
fark Russia.
 
2014-04-09 05:05:03 PM  
d24w6bsrhbeh9d.cloudfront.net
 
2014-04-09 05:07:45 PM  

kbronsito: flondrix: kbronsito:  You are right in that Ukraine would be smart not to blow up the pipes... but holding them hostage is different.

Stupid question here:  Are there any valves that are under Ukrainian control?  i.e., if they wanted to stop gas flow across their territory without damaging the pipes, how hard is that to do?

IDK how this works... but i've seen the pipes on various maps and these pipes go for long stretches of Ukraine, which is a fairly large country. there would have to be valves at some sort of regular interval just for safety issues, right? I would expect that interval to be shorter than the length of Ukraine.


Yes, of course there are valves.  But, in reality, there are also HUGE compressor stations that keep the gas moving.  You just have to turn those off to stop it, then close the valves.
 
2014-04-09 05:09:30 PM  

Jim_Tressel's_O-Face: "I'm Vladmir Putin, and I approve of this message because if capitalism taught me anything its the value of paid propaganda- er- marketing. Da, marketing."


What was actually wrong with my post, other than you not liking it?

You know, there was such a newspaper in my youth. It was called "Pravda". Whenever it didn't like someone's criticism, it didn't try to fight it with truth or with counter-argument or with anything else. It just proclaimed the author of that criticism a hireling of dastardly western imperialists, and that was that - everything that person ever said or will say was automatically dismissed, without any need to elaborate on why it was wrong.

Now, I understand, that sometimes the source is so biased, there is no point in even paying attention to it. Point in case: Fox News. However, I don't think I've written anything that warrants such attitude. As far as I know, nothing I've said here was factually incorrect. If it was, please show it to me (with evidence, if I would be as bold to ask). For example, if the economies of aforementioned countries are not dependent on Russian gas, I'll be glad to look at any data.
 
2014-04-09 05:15:30 PM  

Grahor: This text is now purple: The Ukrainian air force won't fight for eastern Ukraine in Donetsk. They'll fight for Ukraine in Moscow.

You know, it's comments like this that make me fume. Let's forget for a second that Ukraine has, like, 10% of active planes compared to Russia. (like, 80 Sukhoy planes of all kinds, none last generation, against 1080 Sukhoy planes for Russia, with at least half last generation).

But the moment one single plane will attack Moscow, it's all over for Ukraine. Childish desire "to punish impudent hohols for their loutishness" will turn into steely determination to exterminate "the foreign enemy that dared to touch the holy soil of motherland". Russia will simply declare total mobilization, cut all the talks with the West, probably including cutting all the gas for Europe, and will just overwhelm Ukraine without any consideration for its own losses.

That's why there is no chance in hell anyone in Ukraine will even consider that type of escalation.


What do they have to lose? Russia's coming for the whole thing anyway. And Russia sort of likes its ethnic cleansing. Just ask the Ukrainians.
 
2014-04-09 05:17:31 PM  

dittybopper: cameroncrazy1984: dittybopper: nmrsnr: Which might be construed as an act of war by Russia. This might not end well.

Sure it will.  For Russia.

In what scenario does it end well for Russia?

They end up completely controlling the Ukraine like they did before the breakup of the Soviet Union.

No one thinks the Ukrainians will be able to mount a serious resistance, and *WE* certainly aren't going to go to war with Russia over the Ukraine.

They've been gearing up for it.  You know it's going to happen.


I don't know; the Russia military, and in particular its personnel, aren't in very good shape(public health is horrible in Russia, and their military forces are no better) and Ukraine is big. Invading Ukraine would be a totally different kettle of fish than what they did in Georgia, and even there they were smart enough not to try and stay. We might not want to engage directly with the Russian military, but we can, on our own and through the Europeans, do plenty to aggravate such a campaign, making it even more painful for him than the Ukrainian military and para-militaries behind Russian lines would.

And there's the open question of how happy those Crimean Russians are going to be moving forward as Putin starts to establish there the political and economic controls already in place in Russia, and they find themselves cut out of the global economy as a result of Russia's invasion.
 
2014-04-09 05:20:07 PM  

CruJones: Grahor: kbronsito: Ukraine doesn't actually have to shut the gas off... just the fact that they've said this out loud has probably already had an effect on the Gazprom stock.

Russian government owns Gazprom stock.

Russian government doesn't care about the value of the Gazprom stock because they are not going to sell it, ever. Gazprom stock may fall below zero and Russia will not care, because it's not interested in the value of Gazprom stocks. Only in the revenue from Gazprom selling of the oil.

kbronsito: You are right in that Ukraine would be smart not to blow up the pipes... but holding them hostage is different.

Ukraine once tried to hold the pipes hostage. That's why Nord Stream pipeline was born, directly from Russia to Germany. Also, large gas storages were built in Europe, and I bet my hat they were filled with gas right from the first moment there were disturbances in Ukraine.

Ukraine tried to take part of gas going to Europe for itself. Didn't go well. Stockholm court have ordered Ukraine to return the stolen gas to Russia.

Putin doesn't react well to blackmail. And if the pipes will be turned off, Putin will likely be able to continue to sell gas to Europe, while Ukraine will suffer total crush of its economy and industry, completely dependent on Russian gas and oil. That is, the part of economy and industry which haven't crushed already...

Europe is ready to sell gas to Ukraine, but only for market price - or in other words, the same price Putin offers right now.

You know how I know you didn't read the article?


He probably read it very carefully, and then spent some time thinking about what to say this time to promote Russia's position/claim.  He may honestly believe what he says, or he may be lying through his teeth, but in any case he's going to say pretty much whatever justifies Putin.
 
2014-04-09 05:22:50 PM  

rev. dave: I wonder if the Russians in eastern Ukraine have considered that they are between 2 groups who might fight on their land.


The Russians in Eastern Ukraine by and large want to stay Ukrainian. There's a difference between wanting closer ties to Russia foreign policy wise and wanting to be annexed. The disturbances we've seen this week have pretty obviously been Russian plants trying to cause a ruckus.
 
2014-04-09 05:28:08 PM  

Grahor: dancindan84: Any bets on them having restarted their program since it's become obvious the US and UK aren't backing up their end of the Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances?

Oh, they are certainly going to. It's a very popular idea in Ukraine.

dancindan84: Any idea how long that would take?

Let me think... Right now Ukraine is collecting money for its army through sms. Like, you know, "send sms at that number if you love your Country and want to stop Russians from capturing it!" That's mostly for soldiers' wages and oil (do you know that army consumes unholy amount of oil?)

So, considering financial investments necessary for nuclear development... mmmm... Oh, it's 2 months, 11 days and 7 hours after they fix their economy! And that'll probably just take no more than a year after Ukraine will stop being the country with most corruption in Europe, even more than Russia and Moldova. So, like, eleventy forevers?


More Corruption than Russia? Considering that Russia is run by criminals and that the Russian mob, in and out of country, frequently carries out hits for Putin, I don't think that's possible. Corruption in Russia is at 100%; it is a government entirely OF corruption, with no accountability or regard for its people.
 
2014-04-09 05:29:36 PM  

dittybopper: cameroncrazy1984: dittybopper: nmrsnr: Which might be construed as an act of war by Russia. This might not end well.

Sure it will.  For Russia.

In what scenario does it end well for Russia?

They end up completely controlling the Ukraine like they did before the breakup of the Soviet Union.

No one thinks the Ukrainians will be able to mount a serious resistance, and *WE* certainly aren't going to go to war with Russia over the Ukraine.

They've been gearing up for it.  You know it's going to happen.


I've been assured by the Fark Diplomats that sanctions will stop Putin any time now.
 
2014-04-09 05:33:41 PM  

a particular individual: How did subby manage to use "it's" incorrectly, and then use "its" correctly in the headline?


Behold! The power of Fark.
 
2014-04-09 05:34:50 PM  
Use Russia's tactics. Send some thugs to shut the pipe down then disavow responsibility.
 
2014-04-09 05:36:07 PM  

Grahor: This text is now purple: The Ukrainian air force won't fight for eastern Ukraine in Donetsk. They'll fight for Ukraine in Moscow.


You know, it's comments like this that make me fume. Let's forget for a second that Ukraine has, like, 10% of active planes compared to Russia. (like, 80 Sukhoy planes of all kinds, none last generation, against 1080 Sukhoy planes for Russia, with at least half last generation).


So, because someone says something that sounds nationalistic for Ukraine, you go on a 2 paragraph rant about how angry you are anyone would SUGGEST Russia might suffer some losses if their victims fought back.

But hey, you're no traitor!  And it's certainly not YOUR desire to see your country conquered and ruled over by Russia!  You assured us all that it's only those dirty, mean ol' non-Russians oppressing your poor, oppressed Ethnically Russian family and friends that FORCE you to be happy when Russian troops commit various criminal acts in foreign countries.

Really.
 
2014-04-09 05:38:39 PM  

Heron: dittybopper: cameroncrazy1984: dittybopper: nmrsnr: Which might be construed as an act of war by Russia. This might not end well.

Sure it will.  For Russia.

In what scenario does it end well for Russia?

They end up completely controlling the Ukraine like they did before the breakup of the Soviet Union.

No one thinks the Ukrainians will be able to mount a serious resistance, and *WE* certainly aren't going to go to war with Russia over the Ukraine.

They've been gearing up for it.  You know it's going to happen.

I don't know; the Russia military, and in particular its personnel, aren't in very good shape(public health is horrible in Russia, and their military forces are no better) and Ukraine is big. Invading Ukraine would be a totally different kettle of fish than what they did in Georgia, and even there they were smart enough not to try and stay. We might not want to engage directly with the Russian military, but we can, on our own and through the Europeans, do plenty to aggravate such a campaign, making it even more painful for him than the Ukrainian military and para-militaries behind Russian lines would.



Russias military is also grossly misrepresented as some sort of massive unstoppable machine.  They may have a lot of hardware but their military philosophy is archaic and their officer corps is a jumble of scheming, politicking and nepotism.  Capturing the Ukraine through sheer force of numbers is one thing, but holding it is quite another.
 
2014-04-09 05:39:01 PM  

svanmeter: Use Russia's tactics. Send some thugs to shut the pipe down then disavow responsibility.


Blow that bastart up.

Whoops! Must be the Chechens!
 
2014-04-09 05:39:10 PM  

This text is now purple: What do they have to lose? Russia's coming for the whole thing anyway. And Russia sort of likes its ethnic cleansing. Just ask the Ukrainians.


Heh. I don't even know where to start. :) What makes you think that Russia is coming for the whole thing? It may be argued that Putin may consider invading and assimilating East Ukraine. But the whole thing?

Also, let's also assume that Stalin's ethnic policies are what Putin has in mind for Ukraine. However, currently ethnicity in Russia is a matter of personal choice; whatever ethnicity you want to be, you are. Any Ukrainian scared of persecution may simply say that he's Russian, was always Russian, hurray Russia! 100% of Ukrainians know Russian perfectly or nearly perfectly, so it's not hard to pull off. That's, at least, my plan if Russia ever invades Latvia and I'll be too old or infirm to get to the border with Poland in time.
 
2014-04-09 05:44:19 PM  

svanmeter: Use Russia's tactics. Send some thugs to shut the pipe down then disavow responsibility.


Sure would be a shame if those mysterious thugs were driving unmarked M1 Abrams tanks.

I mean, if you are going to get involved in a trolling contest, troll big!
 
2014-04-09 05:44:32 PM  

nmrsnr: Which might be construed as an act of war by Russia. This might not end well.


Increase the fee for using the pipeline by 85%
 
2014-04-09 05:45:26 PM  

ciberido: CruJones: Grahor: kbronsito: Ukraine doesn't actually have to shut the gas off... just the fact that they've said this out loud has probably already had an effect on the Gazprom stock.

Russian government owns Gazprom stock.

Russian government doesn't care about the value of the Gazprom stock because they are not going to sell it, ever. Gazprom stock may fall below zero and Russia will not care, because it's not interested in the value of Gazprom stocks. Only in the revenue from Gazprom selling of the oil.

kbronsito: You are right in that Ukraine would be smart not to blow up the pipes... but holding them hostage is different.

Ukraine once tried to hold the pipes hostage. That's why Nord Stream pipeline was born, directly from Russia to Germany. Also, large gas storages were built in Europe, and I bet my hat they were filled with gas right from the first moment there were disturbances in Ukraine.

Ukraine tried to take part of gas going to Europe for itself. Didn't go well. Stockholm court have ordered Ukraine to return the stolen gas to Russia.

Putin doesn't react well to blackmail. And if the pipes will be turned off, Putin will likely be able to continue to sell gas to Europe, while Ukraine will suffer total crush of its economy and industry, completely dependent on Russian gas and oil. That is, the part of economy and industry which haven't crushed already...

Europe is ready to sell gas to Ukraine, but only for market price - or in other words, the same price Putin offers right now.

You know how I know you didn't read the article?

He probably read it very carefully, and then spent some time thinking about what to say this time to promote Russia's position/claim.  He may honestly believe what he says, or he may be lying through his teeth, but in any case he's going to say pretty much whatever justifies Putin.



I like having one obvious shill around so I can stay infromed as to the Russian view of Gloriously Manly Leader's activities.

And whatever he's rantiest about is probably a good "tell" as to where reality gets problematic for Russia.
 
2014-04-09 05:45:59 PM  

Grahor: This text is now purple: The Ukrainian air force won't fight for eastern Ukraine in Donetsk. They'll fight for Ukraine in Moscow.

You know, it's comments like this that make me fume. Let's forget for a second that Ukraine has, like, 10% of active planes compared to Russia. (like, 80 Sukhoy planes of all kinds, none last generation, against 1080 Sukhoy planes for Russia, with at least half last generation).

But the moment one single plane will attack Moscow, it's all over for Ukraine. Childish desire "to punish impudent hohols for their loutishness" will turn into steely determination to exterminate "the foreign enemy that dared to touch the holy soil of motherland". Russia will simply declare total mobilization, cut all the talks with the West, probably including cutting all the gas for Europe, and will just overwhelm Ukraine without any consideration for its own losses.

That's why there is no chance in hell anyone in Ukraine will even consider that type of escalation.


Let me get this straight.

In a hypothetical fight for survival as an independent nation, the Ukrainian military wouldn't try to strike into Russia and would fight only on the defensive ...because Russia would invade them more?  When they're fighting the country who literally farking genocided them within living memory?

img.fark.net
 
2014-04-09 05:47:14 PM  

Donnchadha: Isn't this the whole reason why Russia wants to annex Crimea?


Crimea, military access.

Ukraine, pipelines


Hard to gobble them all in one shot.  Take small bites.

fireclown: Alassra: If Ukraine flips that switch, I think (despite how it might be initially painful for them), Europe will silently be cheering.

And reaching for their sweaters.


They don't have to worry about that shiat....until 28 Weeks Later.
 
2014-04-09 05:48:38 PM  

Grahor: Jim_Tressel's_O-Face: "I'm Vladmir Putin, and I approve of this message because if capitalism taught me anything its the value of paid propaganda- er- marketing. Da, marketing."

What was actually wrong with my post, other than you not liking it?

You know, there was such a newspaper in my youth. It was called "Pravda". Whenever it didn't like someone's criticism, it didn't try to fight it with truth or with counter-argument or with anything else. It just proclaimed the author of that criticism a hireling of dastardly western imperialists, and that was that - everything that person ever said or will say was automatically dismissed, without any need to elaborate on why it was wrong.

Now, I understand, that sometimes the source is so biased, there is no point in even paying attention to it. Point in case: Fox News. However, I don't think I've written anything that warrants such attitude. As far as I know, nothing I've said here was factually incorrect. If it was, please show it to me (with evidence, if I would be as bold to ask). For example, if the economies of aforementioned countries are not dependent on Russian gas, I'll be glad to look at any data.


Are you still being paid 10 Ruble a comment comrade?
 
2014-04-09 05:51:17 PM  
Grahor:
Also, let's also assume that Stalin's ethnic policies are what Putin has in mind for Ukraine. However, currently ethnicity in Russia is a matter of personal choice; whatever ethnicity you want to be, you are. Any Ukrainian scared of persecution may simply say that he's Russian, was always Russian, hurray Russia! 100% of Ukrainians know Russian perfectly or nearly perfectly, so it's not hard to pull off. That's, at least, my plan if Russia ever invades Latvia and I'll be too old or infirm to get to the border with Poland in time.

img.fark.net

what

did you

Did you REALLY just say all you had to do to avoid a genocide is simply claim you're not a member of the target people?  ARE YOU FARKING KIDDING ME?!
 
2014-04-09 05:51:18 PM  

ciberido: He may honestly believe what he says, or he may be lying through his teeth, but in any case he's going to say pretty much whatever justifies Putin.


Could you please point out what in anything that I've said in the thread justifies Putin in any way whatsoever? I was trying to correct some misconceptions, but how is that "justifying Putin" even a little bit?

Heron: More Corruption than Russia?


If we are to believe Transparency International.  http://www.transparency.org/cpi2013/results The difference is 3 points, which is, like, nothing, but still.

I'm not arguing that Russia isn't corrupt through and through. But so is Ukraine. Oligarchs have a LOT of power in Ukraine, and they are inevitably champions of corruption.
 
2014-04-09 05:56:02 PM  

Heron: rev. dave: I wonder if the Russians in eastern Ukraine have considered that they are between 2 groups who might fight on their land.

The Russians in Eastern Ukraine by and large want to stay Ukrainian. There's a difference between wanting closer ties to Russia foreign policy wise and wanting to be annexed. The disturbances we've seen this week have pretty obviously been Russian plants trying to cause a ruckus.


The image I had was Ukrainian artillery and rockets bombing the Russians as they invade.  Thus affecting the Russians who live in those areas.  And then Russia doing the same to Ukraine as they send forces into the Russian areas.  Lots of civilians suddenly rethinking their decision to secede.
 
2014-04-09 05:58:56 PM  

Grahor: This text is now purple: What do they have to lose? Russia's coming for the whole thing anyway. And Russia sort of likes its ethnic cleansing. Just ask the Ukrainians.

Heh. I don't even know where to start. :) What makes you think that Russia is coming for the whole thing? It may be argued that Putin may consider invading and assimilating East Ukraine. But the whole thing?

Also, let's also assume that Stalin's ethnic policies are what Putin has in mind for Ukraine. However, currently ethnicity in Russia is a matter of personal choice; whatever ethnicity you want to be, you are. Any Ukrainian scared of persecution may simply say that he's Russian, was always Russian, hurray Russia! 100% of Ukrainians know Russian perfectly or nearly perfectly, so it's not hard to pull off. That's, at least, my plan if Russia ever invades Latvia and I'll be too old or infirm to get to the border with Poland in time.


Wow.

I don't even know what to say to this. This is just incredibly sad.
 
2014-04-09 06:01:30 PM  

Grahor: Heh. I don't even know where to start. :) What makes you think that Russia is coming for the whole thing?


Besides World War I, the Polish-Ukrainian War, the Polish-Soviet War, The Winter War, World War II, the Hungarian Uprising, the 1968 invasion of Czechoslovakia, the first two Chechen Wars, the most recent Georgia war, and the Crimean war?

And that's just Europe, within the last century. Five of those were wars within Ukraine.
 
2014-04-09 06:05:20 PM  

NEDM: In a hypothetical fight for survival as an independent nation, the Ukrainian military wouldn't try to strike into Russia and would fight only on the defensive ...because Russia would invade them more?


Er, yes? Actually, I think that if Putin would invade East Ukraine, Ukrainian military will not fight at all, as it wasn't fighting in Crimea. For the same reason.

NEDM: When they're fighting the country who literally farking genocided them within living memory?


Right now there is no visa regime between Russia and Ukraine. If Ukrainian wants to go to Russia, he doesn't need a visa. Similarly if a Russian wants to go to Ukraine, he doesn't need visa, at least yet. Ukraine only thinks about starting issuing visas. Right now, after Crimea, after everything, citizens of Russia and Ukraine are free to move between countries without visas. And they do.

I don't think Ukrainians and Russians are thinking about each other as of actual mortal enemies. Not yet anyway.

NEDM: Did you REALLY just say all you had to do to avoid a genocide is simply claim you're not a member of the target people? ARE YOU FARKING KIDDING ME?!

 

No, I'm not kidding you. At least half of citizens of Ukraine are Russians. What is the difference between ethnic Russian and ethnic Ukrainian? There are no actual documents where your ethnicity is registered. There was a census in 2001, I think but the whole "ethnicity" thing there was purely voluntary and I don't think it's in any way documented as in "this person = this ethnicity". Neither Russian or Ukrainian documents have ethnicity fields.

Sure, cultural and political national leaders will not be able to declare themselves Russians, but for a common person from the street, how would theoretical death squads discern Russians and Ukrainians? They all speak with the same accent, they have same documents and everything?
 
2014-04-09 06:10:12 PM  
P.S. Err, in "half of citizens" I didn't mean literally half. Ethnically more than half of the people in Ukraine have Ukrainian ethnic roots. But roughly half uses Russian in everyday life as their native language, and if your native language is Russian, you are, by Russians' definition, a Russian. Even if you are captivatingly Kenyan.
 
2014-04-09 06:11:04 PM  
Grahor: What was actually wrong with my post, other than you not liking it?

This is FARK. It's not like he needs any more reason to declare you a non-person. Heck, your confused reaction has probably encouraged a dozen more trolls to start calling you a propagandist, just because it seems to have offended you... blood in the water attracting sharks.

/that's freedom of speech for you
//lots of people love the thought of being able to say whatever they want without fear of government retribution
///until they find out it also means all the people that hate them can do the same
 
2014-04-09 06:11:28 PM  

Grahor: NEDM: In a hypothetical fight for survival as an independent nation, the Ukrainian military wouldn't try to strike into Russia and would fight only on the defensive ...because Russia would invade them more?

Er, yes? Actually, I think that if Putin would invade East Ukraine, Ukrainian military will not fight at all, as it wasn't fighting in Crimea. For the same reason.

NEDM: When they're fighting the country who literally farking genocided them within living memory?

Right now there is no visa regime between Russia and Ukraine. If Ukrainian wants to go to Russia, he doesn't need a visa. Similarly if a Russian wants to go to Ukraine, he doesn't need visa, at least yet. Ukraine only thinks about starting issuing visas. Right now, after Crimea, after everything, citizens of Russia and Ukraine are free to move between countries without visas. And they do.

I don't think Ukrainians and Russians are thinking about each other as of actual mortal enemies. Not yet anyway.

NEDM: Did you REALLY just say all you had to do to avoid a genocide is simply claim you're not a member of the target people? ARE YOU FARKING KIDDING ME?! 

No, I'm not kidding you. At least half of citizens of Ukraine are Russians. What is the difference between ethnic Russian and ethnic Ukrainian? There are no actual documents where your ethnicity is registered. There was a census in 2001, I think but the whole "ethnicity" thing there was purely voluntary and I don't think it's in any way documented as in "this person = this ethnicity". Neither Russian or Ukrainian documents have ethnicity fields.

Sure, cultural and political national leaders will not be able to declare themselves Russians, but for a common person from the street, how would theoretical death squads discern Russians and Ukrainians? They all speak with the same accent, they have same documents and everything?


Why not give up the Russian name then. Join them and call yourselves Ukrainians. Let Ukraine absorb the former territory known as Russia.

No one should ever have to change who they identify as just to avoid death, fark-stick.
 
2014-04-09 06:11:40 PM  

Falin: Wow.

I don't even know what to say to this. This is just incredibly sad.


Why is it sad? Please, keep in mind that in this post I was talking to a person whom I consider a troll, for now, so I was using reductio ad absurdum.
 
2014-04-09 06:15:23 PM  

Stone Meadow: tinyarena: CruJones: Grahor:
Putin doesn't react well to blackmail. blah blah blah,,,

You know how I know you didn't read the article?
don't bother pointing out the obvious,
Grahor is russian shill
Lost Ukraine = brilliant move by Putin!
Invade tiny peninsula where they already had bases = brilliant move by Putin!
Turkey threatens to shut their fleet in the Black Seal = brilliant move by Putin!
Sanctions costing Russia over 100 Billion this year = brilliant move by Putin!

you get the idea, the man is a GENIUS!

Yeah, nothing like driving Ukraine into the arms of the Europeans, and the Europeans into the arms of the Americans. Simply brilliant, Mr. Putin.


Putin doesn't care about any of that. He's more popular than ever in Russia.

/ which is why he may balk at starting a real war with Russians dying in Ukraine.
 
2014-04-09 06:15:54 PM  
If I was Ukraine, I would set up explosives every 500 feet of Druzhba Oil pipeline and the Soyuz  and Brotherhood Gas lines. Then tell Russia back off, or you might invade, but you'll be replacing 3,000 miles of pipeline.
 
2014-04-09 06:17:04 PM  

Grahor: Falin: Wow.

I don't even know what to say to this. This is just incredibly sad.

Why is it sad? Please, keep in mind that in this post I was talking to a person whom I consider a troll, for now, so I was using reductio ad absurdum.


given your public cock- sucking of Putin recently, I'm highly dubious to this being your intention.
 
2014-04-09 06:19:19 PM  

nmrsnr: Which might be construed as an act of war by Russia. This might not end well.


It'll be a smorgasbord of pure awesomeness. Russia invades the rest of Ukraine, NATO invades Russia, Russian oligarchs shoot Putin and offer to restore everything back to what it was prior to the Ukraine aggression (with some additional concessions), Ukraine becomes a whole country again, and there's Bigfoot nuggets for everyone!

Doooooooo eeeeeeeit.
 
2014-04-09 06:25:28 PM  

Tatterdemalian: This is FARK. It's not like he needs any more reason to declare you a non-person. Heck, your confused reaction has probably encouraged a dozen more trolls to start calling you a propagandist, just because it seems to have offended you... blood in the water attracting sharks.


It's not that he offended me. It's just that I really do not want people - other people, lurkers, other posters - to just assume that I'm some kind of paid shill and dismiss me.

I am completely honest in my opinions and views, and I really post what I think. I may be wrong, and in this case, why not to try to convince me? After all, even though I've grown up behind Iron Curtain (which was never as Iron as people tend to think), I've grown up on books of Bradbury and Asimov, Heinlein and Zelazny. I read mostly books by English-speaking authors (hell, I've started to perfect my English to be able to read Prattchet's books, and appreciate his humor, in original), and my favorite series are the Daily Show and Colbert's report. My ideals and values are liberal European ideals and values, or so I fancy, at least.

If you can't find common language with me, convince me that your vision of the world and situation is right and mine is wrong, what chance do you have with truly different cultures?
 
2014-04-09 06:28:02 PM  

nmrsnr: Which might be construed as an act of war by Russia. This might not end well.


Invading and overtaking another country wasn't?
 
2014-04-09 06:32:31 PM  
"Putin doesn't care about any of that. He's more popular than ever in Russia.

/ which is why he may balk at starting a real war with Russians dying in Ukraine."

He probably won't need to. Revolutionaries like the protestors controlling West Ukraine seldom make plans for what comes after their revolution succeeds, and almost never for when it goes wrong, like it is now. All Putin really needs to do is uphold his promise to "protect" Russian people in the Ukraine, and wait for the revolutionaries to either screw up something to the point that West Ukraine votes to join Russia just to spite the pro-West parties, or they give him an excuse to move his troops in "non-violently" to "protect" Russian minorities one province at a time, until the whole country is occupied, then put it to a "vote" that turns out to favor unification with Russia by 107%.
 
2014-04-09 06:38:32 PM  

Grahor: CruJones: You know how I know you didn't read the article?

No. Educate me. I'm holding my breath in anticipation.


I read that in a Russian accent.img.fark.net
 
2014-04-09 06:39:12 PM  

nmrsnr: Which might be construed as an act of war by Russia. This might not end well.


Nuke the bastards.

/John McCain wants to
 
2014-04-09 06:41:20 PM  

Some Coke Drinking Guy: LAW rockets, some claymore mines, and a hell of a lot of Stinger missiles


Party like it's 1989.
 
2014-04-09 06:42:56 PM  
This is all starting to sound like a Clancy novel.
 
2014-04-09 06:43:38 PM  

Grahor: Tatterdemalian: This is FARK. It's not like he needs any more reason to declare you a non-person. Heck, your confused reaction has probably encouraged a dozen more trolls to start calling you a propagandist, just because it seems to have offended you... blood in the water attracting sharks.

It's not that he offended me. It's just that I really do not want people - other people, lurkers, other posters - to just assume that I'm some kind of paid shill and dismiss me.

I am completely honest in my opinions and views, and I really post what I think. I may be wrong, and in this case, why not to try to convince me? After all, even though I've grown up behind Iron Curtain (which was never as Iron as people tend to think), I've grown up on books of Bradbury and Asimov, Heinlein and Zelazny. I read mostly books by English-speaking authors (hell, I've started to perfect my English to be able to read Prattchet's books, and appreciate his humor, in original), and my favorite series are the Daily Show and Colbert's report. My ideals and values are liberal European ideals and values, or so I fancy, at least.

If you can't find common language with me, convince me that your vision of the world and situation is right and mine is wrong, what chance do you have with truly different cultures?


You do realize that fark libs never haveto back up their opinion, they are due to them belonging to group think . They will never provide a cite but always ask for yours. They will misconstrue your posts intentionally. Then when all else fails they resort to ad hominem. They have even recently taken up Obamas end all argument that you at on the wrong side of history, argument done.

Notice they call you a shill for pointing out facts. They actually do believe obama has issued harsh sanctions which have turned Russia back. It is laughable at best. Even those sanctioned were laughing.
 
2014-04-09 06:44:51 PM  

Tatterdemalian: He probably won't need to. Revolutionaries like the protestors controlling West Ukraine seldom make plans for what comes after their revolution succeeds, and almost never for when it goes wrong, like it is now. All Putin really needs to do is uphold his promise to "protect" Russian people in the Ukraine, and wait for the revolutionaries to either screw up something to the point that West Ukraine votes to join Russia just to spite the pro-West parties, or they give him an excuse to move his troops in "non-violently" to "protect" Russian minorities one province at a time, until the whole country is occupied, then put it to a "vote" that turns out to favor unification with Russia by 107%.


Yep, pretty much this.  And Putin isn't in a hurry. If this time the opportunity will not present itself, there is always next time. For example, the most likely winner of Ukraine's presidential election is Poroshenko. Poroshenko is a classic oligarch, who is in Ukrainian politics since 2001. And Ukrainian politics were pretty corrupt all those years. What are the chances that Poroshenko will screw the pouch and bring another explosion of popular wrath, or screw the economy, or fail in any of the hundreds of other ways a politician may fail in a country in such a desperate state?

Putin will still be there to pick up the pieces.

That's why it's utterly important for the West to do everything and beyond to help Ukraine not to screw thing up, not just now, but through future years. Very active involvement in de-corruptisation of the country, spreading western worldview through population, including Russian-speaking, through really well thought-out, funded and executed propaganda counter-balances to Russia's propaganda, and so on.

That is, if the West really wants to help Ukraine.
 
2014-04-09 06:49:19 PM  

Tatterdemalian: Grahor: What was actually wrong with my post, other than you not liking it?

This is FARK. It's not like he needs any more reason to declare you a non-person. Heck, your confused reaction has probably encouraged a dozen more trolls to start calling you a propagandist, just because it seems to have offended you... blood in the water attracting sharks.

/that's freedom of speech for you
//lots of people love the thought of being able to say whatever they want without fear of government retribution
///until they find out it also means all the people that hate them can do the same


Yeah, I don't get it either.  I see his posts and think at the very least I'm getting the opinion of someone from the region.  I don't take any of it as gospel, but I do find the comments interesting.
 
2014-04-09 06:54:23 PM  

dittybopper: cameroncrazy1984: dittybopper: nmrsnr: Which might be construed as an act of war by Russia. This might not end well.

Sure it will.  For Russia.

In what scenario does it end well for Russia?

They end up completely controlling the Ukraine like they did before the breakup of the Soviet Union.

No one thinks the Ukrainians will be able to mount a serious resistance, and *WE* certainly aren't going to go to war with Russia over the Ukraine.

They've been gearing up for it.  You know it's going to happen.


I think Europe would put cuba/Iran style embargoes on Russia of they did that.

70% of Russia gdp is oil exports. That would cripple them without invading.
 
2014-04-09 06:59:54 PM  

rev. dave: I wonder if the Russians in eastern Ukraine have considered that they are between 2 groups who might fight on their land.


No, they are just thinking the way the Russian-language agitprop they are getting from TV stations in Russia are telling them to think.

NPR did a fascinating bit on this the other day, sending people to interview protesters in East Ukraine.  They seem completely convinced that Kiev is now run by a fascist dictatorship that was installed by a joint US/EU organized and funded coup done specifically to attack Russia, and that they must turn to Russia for protection from the inevitable pogroms that will be launched against ethnic Russians.  It's some fine classic Russian agitprop that they are soaking up there.

Remember, the Russian-speaking population in Eastern Ukraine gets most of their media from Russia.  Russian TV stations along the border broadcast Russian-language (and Russian state-approved) messages to them.  They are on a steady diet of Russian propaganda as their major source of world news, so no wonder they are doing exactly what Moscow wants.

They aren't thinking of second and third order effects, they are just clamoring for Russia to come in and save them from the evil fascist Ukrainians and their American and European masters.  They don't realize the long-term effects, politically and economically, of being part of Russia, or that if war breaks out like they seem to be calling for, they are sitting on what will be the frontline.
 
2014-04-09 07:05:10 PM  

LemSkroob: nmrsnr: Which might be construed as an act of war by Russia. This might not end well.

Invading and overtaking another country wasn't?


Not on the part of Ukraine, no.
 
2014-04-09 07:05:52 PM  

hardinparamedic: Slaves2Darkness: Shut it off? No my friend we will blow it up with drones that will show those Ruskies.

FEED ME RUSSIANS!

[www.fas.org image 720x576]

[chivethebrigade.files.wordpress.com image 850x570]

[m0.i.pbase.com image 800x542]


Those aren't going to be doing much with all their ammo just left on the ground. Stupid military.
 
Oak
2014-04-09 07:06:01 PM  

Tatterdemalian: "Putin doesn't care about any of that. He's more popular than ever in Russia.

/ which is why he may balk at starting a real war with Russians dying in Ukraine."

He probably won't need to. Revolutionaries like the protestors controlling West Ukraine seldom make plans for what comes after their revolution succeeds, and almost never for when it goes wrong, like it is now. All Putin really needs to do is uphold his promise to "protect" Russian people in the Ukraine, and wait for the revolutionaries to either screw up something to the point that West Ukraine votes to join Russia just to spite the pro-West parties, or they give him an excuse to move his troops in "non-violently" to "protect" Russian minorities one province at a time, until the whole country is occupied, then put it to a "vote" that turns out to favor unification with Russia by 107%.


Why would Putin go that far?  I can see, from his POV, why he'd take the Crimea and the eastern/southern parts of Ukraine where there may very well actually be majority support for joining Russia.  Pure gain, very cost-free.  Wouldn't that be enough?
 
2014-04-09 07:15:16 PM  

FormlessOne: nmrsnr: Which might be construed as an act of war by Russia. This might not end well.

It'll be a smorgasbord of pure awesomeness. Russia invades the rest of Ukraine, NATO invades Russia, Russian oligarchs shoot Putin and offer to restore everything back to what it was prior to the Ukraine aggression (with some additional concessions), Ukraine becomes a whole country again, and there's Bigfoot nuggets for everyone!

Doooooooo eeeeeeeit.


Ukraine isn't in NATO = not gonna happen.

At least last time Russia turned off the pipes in January. Now it's already spring, so they have 6-8 months before it gets serious.
 
2014-04-09 07:20:49 PM  

MyRandomName: They actually do believe obama has issued harsh sanctions which have turned Russia back. It is laughable at best. Even those sanctioned were laughing.


The harshest thing Obama has ever issued he left in the toilet after eating at Taco Bell.
 
2014-04-09 07:25:02 PM  

Grahor: That's, at least, my plan if Russia ever invades Latvia and I'll be too old or infirm to get to the border with Poland in time.


I'm curious why you would run to Poland in that scenario when all three Baltic states are Nato and EU. Because Poland is the first Nato&EU state without a significant Russian population?
 
2014-04-09 07:39:05 PM  

Cajnik: I'm curious why you would run to Poland in that scenario when all three Baltic states are Nato and EU.


If Russia would actually invade Baltics, in hypothetical scenario, that means that Russia really means business. I don't believe Europe and US will actually really fight for Baltic states in an all-out land war against Russia really meaning business, for a number of reasons. I don't even particularly want them to. My parents won't run; they are too old; and any real war in Latvia's territory will cause horrendous casualties among civilian population.

Cajnik: Because Poland is the first Nato&EU state without a significant Russian population?


Because Poland is the only EU state which borders Baltics - I'll have to run through Lithuania to get to it. If I could run to Sweden instead, I would, but I can't walk on water. I'm not staying in Poland, either; New Zealand is wonderful this time of the year. And by that I mean "any time of the year when Russia decides to attack Baltics".

By the way, Lithuania have pretty much assimilated its Russian population, so they are the first state without significant Russian population:)
 
2014-04-09 07:52:41 PM  

Grahor: I don't believe Europe and US will actually really fight for Baltic states in an all-out land war against Russia really meaning business, for a number of reasons.


I disagree, but it's not really a test case anyone wants to find out. It's certainly it's one of the main reasons Russia was against EU/Nato talks for Ukraine - because it would force them into a decision if they really mean business or not. Unfortunately, without those backings, Russia's decisions on Ukraine are probably tipped in their favor.

Anyway, I'm opening a discussion too late at night on an article which is BS. Ukraine doesn't shut off the pipes, Russia makes that decision. Even at this point.
 
2014-04-09 07:53:13 PM  

Grahor: Cajnik: I'm curious why you would run to Poland in that scenario when all three Baltic states are Nato and EU.

If Russia would actually invade Baltics, in hypothetical scenario, that means that Russia really means business. I don't believe Europe and US will actually really fight for Baltic states in an all-out land war against Russia really meaning business, for a number of reasons. I don't even particularly want them to. My parents won't run; they are too old; and any real war in Latvia's territory will cause horrendous casualties among civilian population.

Cajnik: Because Poland is the first Nato&EU state without a significant Russian population?

Because Poland is the only EU state which borders Baltics - I'll have to run through Lithuania to get to it. If I could run to Sweden instead, I would, but I can't walk on water. I'm not staying in Poland, either; New Zealand is wonderful this time of the year. And by that I mean "any time of the year when Russia decides to attack Baltics".

By the way, Lithuania have pretty much assimilated its Russian population, so they are the first state without significant Russian population:)


There would be a big fight over that.  The United States, NATO, and the EU's reputations would all be at stake.   Failure to respond would immediately usher in the post-US era of geopolitics on the world stage.  Backing down is unthinkable.
 
2014-04-09 07:56:18 PM  

Grahor: P.S. Err, in "half of citizens" I didn't mean literally half. Ethnically more than half of the people in Ukraine have Ukrainian ethnic roots. But roughly half uses Russian in everyday life as their native language, and if your native language is Russian, you are, by Russians' definition, a Russian. Even if you are captivatingly Kenyan.


In the, 8,334,100 identified as ethnic (17.3% of the population of Ukraine), this is the combined figure for persons originating from outside of Ukraine and the autochthonous population declaring Russian ethnicity.

According to official data from the  , the Russian language is native for over 14,273,000 Ukrainian citizens (29.3% of the total population).

i.imgur.com
 
2014-04-09 07:59:53 PM  

Maul555: Grahor: Cajnik: I'm curious why you would run to Poland in that scenario when all three Baltic states are Nato and EU.

If Russia would actually invade Baltics, in hypothetical scenario, that means that Russia really means business. I don't believe Europe and US will actually really fight for Baltic states in an all-out land war against Russia really meaning business, for a number of reasons. I don't even particularly want them to. My parents won't run; they are too old; and any real war in Latvia's territory will cause horrendous casualties among civilian population.

Cajnik: Because Poland is the first Nato&EU state without a significant Russian population?

Because Poland is the only EU state which borders Baltics - I'll have to run through Lithuania to get to it. If I could run to Sweden instead, I would, but I can't walk on water. I'm not staying in Poland, either; New Zealand is wonderful this time of the year. And by that I mean "any time of the year when Russia decides to attack Baltics".

By the way, Lithuania have pretty much assimilated its Russian population, so they are the first state without significant Russian population:)

There would be a big fight over that.  The United States, NATO, and the EU's reputations would all be at stake.   Failure to respond would immediately usher in the post-US era of geopolitics on the world stage.  Backing down is unthinkable.


Grahor seriously underestimates the fact that the US Army was basically built to fark Russia's shiat up, and there are a heck of a lot of old righties just itching to use our war machine in a high intensity, open conflict.

Remember--If Oil is involved, the US will get involved. I think the Crimea is the last thing Russia can take from the Ukraine before STANAG magazines start getting emptied in Russian soldiers.
 
2014-04-09 08:20:04 PM  

nmrsnr: Which might be construed as an act of war by Russia. This might not end well.


I think casus belli is the term you are looking for. Russia would lose some money, but a dozen or so EU countries would be more upset because cutting them off from the pipelines would bring their industries to a stop.

/actually the Russian gas can be easily substituted with domestic production, but with a much higher price
 
2014-04-09 08:45:20 PM  

Grahor: NEDM: In a hypothetical fight for survival as an independent nation, the Ukrainian military wouldn't try to strike into Russia and would fight only on the defensive ...because Russia would invade them more?

Er, yes? Actually, I think that if Putin would invade East Ukraine, Ukrainian military will not fight at all, as it wasn't fighting in Crimea. For the same reason.

NEDM: When they're fighting the country who literally farking genocided them within living memory?

Right now there is no visa regime between Russia and Ukraine. If Ukrainian wants to go to Russia, he doesn't need a visa. Similarly if a Russian wants to go to Ukraine, he doesn't need visa, at least yet. Ukraine only thinks about starting issuing visas. Right now, after Crimea, after everything, citizens of Russia and Ukraine are free to move between countries without visas. And they do.

I don't think Ukrainians and Russians are thinking about each other as of actual mortal enemies. Not yet anyway.

NEDM: Did you REALLY just say all you had to do to avoid a genocide is simply claim you're not a member of the target people? ARE YOU FARKING KIDDING ME?! 

No, I'm not kidding you. At least half of citizens of Ukraine are Russians. What is the difference between ethnic Russian and ethnic Ukrainian? There are no actual documents where your ethnicity is registered. There was a census in 2001, I think but the whole "ethnicity" thing there was purely voluntary and I don't think it's in any way documented as in "this person = this ethnicity". Neither Russian or Ukrainian documents have ethnicity fields.

Sure, cultural and political national leaders will not be able to declare themselves Russians, but for a common person from the street, how would theoretical death squads discern Russians and Ukrainians? They all speak with the same accent, they have same documents and everything?


I am going to go out on a limb and guess that someone tried this when Yugoslavia fell apart. But I dont think it turned out they way you've described.
 
2014-04-09 09:19:26 PM  

Bomb Head Mohammed: "an effect on the Gazprom stock "

gazprom stock is a joke. nearly all of the real value of the company is held privately, including by its de facto majority shareholder, vladimir putin.

the stock price of gazprom is like a flag on a flagpole that the gazprom/putin inner circle moves up and down to signal whatever they feel like signalling that day.

see also, VTB bank, same basic story.


So it's like all the big companies do in North America. Those crazy "capitalists".
 
2014-04-09 10:18:20 PM  

Monkeyfark Ridiculous: ciberido: CruJones: Grahor: kbronsito: Ukraine doesn't actually have to shut the gas off... just the fact that they've said this out loud has probably already had an effect on the Gazprom stock.

Russian government owns Gazprom stock.

Russian government doesn't care about the value of the Gazprom stock because they are not going to sell it, ever. Gazprom stock may fall below zero and Russia will not care, because it's not interested in the value of Gazprom stocks. Only in the revenue from Gazprom selling of the oil.

kbronsito: You are right in that Ukraine would be smart not to blow up the pipes... but holding them hostage is different.

Ukraine once tried to hold the pipes hostage. That's why Nord Stream pipeline was born, directly from Russia to Germany. Also, large gas storages were built in Europe, and I bet my hat they were filled with gas right from the first moment there were disturbances in Ukraine.

Ukraine tried to take part of gas going to Europe for itself. Didn't go well. Stockholm court have ordered Ukraine to return the stolen gas to Russia.

Putin doesn't react well to blackmail. And if the pipes will be turned off, Putin will likely be able to continue to sell gas to Europe, while Ukraine will suffer total crush of its economy and industry, completely dependent on Russian gas and oil. That is, the part of economy and industry which haven't crushed already...

Europe is ready to sell gas to Ukraine, but only for market price - or in other words, the same price Putin offers right now.

You know how I know you didn't read the article?

He probably read it very carefully, and then spent some time thinking about what to say this time to promote Russia's position/claim.  He may honestly believe what he says, or he may be lying through his teeth, but in any case he's going to say pretty much whatever justifies Putin.


I like having one obvious shill around so I can stay infromed as to the Russian view of Gloriously Manly Leader's activities.


At least he's reasonably intelligent and polite, or so it seems to be at any rate.   I'd rather read posts from intelligent, polite people I disagree with than posts from assmongers firmly on my side.

That said, I would take anything he says with a grain or two of salt and double-check any sources.
 
2014-04-09 10:34:42 PM  

Some Coke Drinking Guy: Plus get this, after Russia and China, the biggest manufacturer of AK ammunition are probably American factories.  Uncle Sam could easily order up a few hundred million rounds, and ship them over to the Ukrainians easily enough.  Of course this would push ammo prices in the states up yet again, but for some reason, I don't think that would be a major concern for the Obama administration.  Throw in a few thousand LAW rockets, some claymore mines, and a hell of a lot of Stinger missiles, and all of a Sudden Ukraine isn't a pushover, and America hasn't gotten sucked into a war with Russia.  It's what I would do.


The Russians would be knocking on Poland's back door before we could get a significant amount of arms into the Ukraine.

And I don't think you realize how *BRUTAL* the Russians can be when they want.  They were willing to essentially sacrifice a theater full of innocents to kill a few Chechens.

Now, parts of the Ukraine might be able to maintain a low-level insurgency for a few years, but eventually the Russians will crush it.  They wouldn't leave the Ukraine like they did Afghanistan, because unlike Afghanistan, they already believe that the Ukraine is part of Russia, and their independence is a historical quirk brought about by the fall of the Soviet Union.

And it looks like they want it back.
 
2014-04-09 10:50:38 PM  

ciberido: Monkeyfark Ridiculous: ciberido: CruJones: Grahor: kbronsito: Ukraine doesn't actually have to shut the gas off... just the fact that they've said this out loud has probably already had an effect on the Gazprom stock.

Russian government owns Gazprom stock.

Russian government doesn't care about the value of the Gazprom stock because they are not going to sell it, ever. Gazprom stock may fall below zero and Russia will not care, because it's not interested in the value of Gazprom stocks. Only in the revenue from Gazprom selling of the oil.

kbronsito: You are right in that Ukraine would be smart not to blow up the pipes... but holding them hostage is different.

Ukraine once tried to hold the pipes hostage. That's why Nord Stream pipeline was born, directly from Russia to Germany. Also, large gas storages were built in Europe, and I bet my hat they were filled with gas right from the first moment there were disturbances in Ukraine.

Ukraine tried to take part of gas going to Europe for itself. Didn't go well. Stockholm court have ordered Ukraine to return the stolen gas to Russia.

Putin doesn't react well to blackmail. And if the pipes will be turned off, Putin will likely be able to continue to sell gas to Europe, while Ukraine will suffer total crush of its economy and industry, completely dependent on Russian gas and oil. That is, the part of economy and industry which haven't crushed already...

Europe is ready to sell gas to Ukraine, but only for market price - or in other words, the same price Putin offers right now.

You know how I know you didn't read the article?

He probably read it very carefully, and then spent some time thinking about what to say this time to promote Russia's position/claim.  He may honestly believe what he says, or he may be lying through his teeth, but in any case he's going to say pretty much whatever justifies Putin.


I like having one obvious shill around so I can stay infromed as to the Russian view of Gloriously Manly Leader's ...



Agreed. I wasn't being sarcastic about that; I think it's useful to have an articulate Russian apologist around.
 
2014-04-09 10:56:54 PM  

Grahor: If you can't find common language with me, convince me that your vision of the world and situation is right and mine is wrong, what chance do you have with truly different cultures?


Myself, I don't feel any need to "convince" anyone that I'm right and they're wrong about any matters of opinion or speculation. People have different opinions, and the world would be really boring if there was a single set of ways to look at things. I speak my opinion, and let people take it for whatever they will.

/naturally, for con artists who are running a scam, this is completely intolerable
//or for people that can't tolerate anyone else's way of thinking
 
2014-04-09 11:05:36 PM  

Oak: Why would Putin go that far?  I can see, from his POV, why he'd take the Crimea and the eastern/southern parts of Ukraine where there may very well actually be majority support for joining Russia.  Pure gain, very cost-free.  Wouldn't that be enough?


Because he can, and because having more farmland for a mostly icebound nation is better than having less. Plus, it makes his new territory more secure than it would be if he didn't claim it all up to a natural barrier.

/national borders are seldom drawn just because cartographers decide to put them there
//technology may render natural barriers obsolete, but if anything goes so bad that your air force is tied down elsewhere, having a border that can't be crossed by just any pitchfork-wielding peasant mob does help
 
2014-04-10 02:39:32 AM  

baorao: I am going to go out on a limb and guess that someone tried this when Yugoslavia fell apart. But I dont think it turned out they way you've described.


Because there probably were more differences between Serbs and Albanians than between Ukrainians and Russians? Visible differences, language differences, cultural differences... Ethnic Russian is indistinguishable from Ethnic Ukrainian. The only difference is self-description. While not all Russians can speak good Ukrainian, all Ukrainians can speak perfect Russian, or nearly all.

Yes, if broad ethnic cleansings were applied to whole regions, the inability to distinguish between ethnic Russians and ethnic Ukrainians would be moot, but it's not going to happen, is it? Well, ethnic cleansings will not going to happen anyway, but even in that ridiculous scenario, you would need some mechanism do distinguish ethnic Russians from ethnic Ukrainians. What is that mechanism going to be, do you think?

redmid17: According to official data from the  , the Russian language is native for over 14,273,000 Ukrainian citizens (29.3% of the total population).


Your table shows that people speaking Russian at home mainly (36.4%) and using both Russian and Ukrainian (21.4%) together represent 58% of the population. For my purposes, I've used that number, because people who use Russian in their home as native language, even if also using Ukrainian, are unlikely targets for Russian ethnic cleansings, no?

But even if we'll take just 30% of people who are not to be ethnically cleansed, shouldn't there be some mechanism to discern them from those who are to be? What would be such mechanism?

P.S. Mind you, all that talk of ethnic cleansings I find rather ridiculous, and mostly humoring people here.
 
2014-04-10 03:10:56 AM  

Grahor: But even if we'll take just 30% of people who are not to be ethnically cleansed, shouldn't there be some mechanism to discern them from those who are to be? What would be such mechanism?


The mechanism tends to be asking someone who knows or pretends to. Also, stereotyping and not particularly giving a fark whether you score 100% for accuracy.

"For practical purposes, the groups are virtually indistinguishable" - Wikipedia, on Hutu and Tutsi people.

/not saying it would happen, but since you asked
 
2014-04-10 03:51:08 AM  

Monkeyfark Ridiculous: The mechanism tends to be asking someone who knows or pretends to. Also, stereotyping and not particularly giving a fark whether you score 100% for accuracy.


Mmm, that's possible, yeah. Some local official writing some lists, including, of course, his own personal enemies, excluding those who give him bribes... Yeah, if you really don't care about actual result, this would do.

Monkeyfark Ridiculous: "For practical purposes, the groups are virtually indistinguishable" - Wikipedia, on Hutu and Tutsi people.


*sigh* that's exactly the type of information people use in discussions like this. Whatever they've read on the Wiki. And then when a person from the region tries to explain that it's not exactly correct, uses different context and so on, he is a Putin's shill.

That's what people in the region say about Hutu and Tutsi:

"Tutsis tend to be tall, and thin. They have long noses, high pitch voices, and relatively clear skin.

Hutu tend to be short, strong and have relatively broader features. They have big noses, and low pitch voices."

Then he goes he offers a lot of examples, so pretty much everyone can see the difference for himself. Even for a white person they don't look exactly alike...

http://www.quora.com/How-can-one-tell-whether-someone-is-Hutu-or-Tut si
 
2014-04-10 04:45:00 AM  

Grahor: Monkeyfark Ridiculous: The mechanism tends to be asking someone who knows or pretends to. Also, stereotyping and not particularly giving a fark whether you score 100% for accuracy.

Mmm, that's possible, yeah. Some local official writing some lists, including, of course, his own personal enemies, excluding those who give him bribes... Yeah, if you really don't care about actual result, this would do.

Monkeyfark Ridiculous: "For practical purposes, the groups are virtually indistinguishable" - Wikipedia, on Hutu and Tutsi people.

*sigh* that's exactly the type of information people use in discussions like this. Whatever they've read on the Wiki. And then when a person from the region tries to explain that it's not exactly correct, uses different context and so on, he is a Putin's shill.

That's what people in the region say about Hutu and Tutsi:

"Tutsis tend to be tall, and thin. They have long noses, high pitch voices, and relatively clear skin.

Hutu tend to be short, strong and have relatively broader features. They have big noses, and low pitch voices."

Then he goes he offers a lot of examples, so pretty much everyone can see the difference for himself. Even for a white person they don't look exactly alike...

http://www.quora.com/How-can-one-tell-whether-someone-is-Hutu-or-Tuti s



That is "stereotyping," which I already acknowledged would be an include feature of any persecution package. There's always a "_____ tend to be."

Think Ukrainians will be the exception? Check out some of these brain-injuring comments:  http://www.differencebetween.net/miscellaneous/difference-between-ukr a inian-and-russian/

The point of quoting Wikipedia was that claiming two groups are indistinguishable, whether it is you or "anthropologists" doing it, is not going to keep those groups from killing the fark out of each other.
 
2014-04-10 05:57:50 AM  

Grahor: Monkeyfark Ridiculous: The mechanism tends to be asking someone who knows or pretends to. Also, stereotyping and not particularly giving a fark whether you score 100% for accuracy.

Mmm, that's possible, yeah. Some local official writing some lists, including, of course, his own personal enemies, excluding those who give him bribes... Yeah, if you really don't care about actual result, this would do.

Monkeyfark Ridiculous: "For practical purposes, the groups are virtually indistinguishable" - Wikipedia, on Hutu and Tutsi people.

*sigh* that's exactly the type of information people use in discussions like this. Whatever they've read on the Wiki. And then when a person from the region tries to explain that it's not exactly correct, uses different context and so on, he is a Putin's shill.

That's what people in the region say about Hutu and Tutsi:

"Tutsis tend to be tall, and thin. They have long noses, high pitch voices, and relatively clear skin.

Hutu tend to be short, strong and have relatively broader features. They have big noses, and low pitch voices."

Then he goes he offers a lot of examples, so pretty much everyone can see the difference for himself. Even for a white person they don't look exactly alike...

http://www.quora.com/How-can-one-tell-whether-someone-is-Hutu-or-Tut si


www.quickmeme.com
 
2014-04-10 09:23:19 AM  

Monkeyfark Ridiculous: That is "stereotyping," which I already acknowledged would be an include feature of any persecution package. There's always a "_____ tend to be."


Well, yeah, true. However, there are stereotypes useful for ethnic identification ('tall, thin, lighter skin, doesn't speak whatever') and not useful ('inherently inferior, stupid, says the word beer in a funny way, loves lard'). There was an old anecdote about Ukrainian nationalist trying to find out who out of the group of people are "Moscaly" - Russians. The only thing that helped him was that Russians didn't know how to correctly say the time in Ukrainian.

Tutsi and Hutu could and can recognize each other by one look, even if it's never 100% correct. I am utterly unable to discern Russian and Ukrainian. If a Ukrainian can say that this is a Russian, because he doesn't speak Ukrainian correctly, the wast majority of Ukrainians speak Russian indescernably from Russians themselves. There really aren't stereotypes that will help to find a Ukrainian in a Russian crowd.

Here are images of Ukrainian parliament. It is utterly impossible to decide which ones are Ukrainians, and which ones are Russians here.  http://www.businessinsider.com/all-out-brawl-breaks-out-in-ukraine-pa r liament-over-how-to-stop-russia-photos-2014-4

Monkeyfark Ridiculous: Think Ukrainians will be the exception? Check out some of these brain-injuring comments:


Well, now my brains are hurting... :)

Monkeyfark Ridiculous: The point of quoting Wikipedia was that claiming two groups are indistinguishable, whether it is you or "anthropologists" doing it, is not going to keep those groups from killing the fark out of each other.


Well, yeah! But so far both groups have to wear something to identify itself, otherwise they don't know whom to hit...
 
2014-04-10 11:00:50 AM  

Grahor: Monkeyfark Ridiculous: That is "stereotyping," which I already acknowledged would be an include feature of any persecution package. There's always a "_____ tend to be."

Well, yeah, true. However, there are stereotypes useful for ethnic identification ('tall, thin, lighter skin, doesn't speak whatever') and not useful ('inherently inferior, stupid, says the word beer in a funny way, loves lard'). There was an old anecdote about Ukrainian nationalist trying to find out who out of the group of people are "Moscaly" - Russians. The only thing that helped him was that Russians didn't know how to correctly say the time in Ukrainian.

Tutsi and Hutu could and can recognize each other by one look, even if it's never 100% correct. I am utterly unable to discern Russian and Ukrainian. If a Ukrainian can say that this is a Russian, because he doesn't speak Ukrainian correctly, the wast majority of Ukrainians speak Russian indescernably from Russians themselves. There really aren't stereotypes that will help to find a Ukrainian in a Russian crowd.


Hutus and Tutsuis can't really recognize each other, either, with any greater reliability than simple guessing. The Rwandan war saw more Hutus being killed by the Hutu death squads than Tutsuis, even though Tutsuis were 15% of the population. They just assume that, if they kill someone who later turns out to be of their own "race," he/she is posthumously declared a sympathiser with the other "race,"

/that's one of the benefits of abandoning science for superstition, you are never wrong as long as you have a majority that agrees with you
//and you can declare anyone who disagrees with you an enemy
///even if they aren't, it makes no difference when they're dead and their friends and family are too scared to dissent
 
2014-04-10 11:24:46 PM  

Alassra: If Ukraine flips that switch, I think (despite how it might be initially painful for them), Europe will silently be cheering.


It's probably what Putin wants to happen. It gives him a reason to invade the rest of Ukraine.
 
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