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(Quartz)   After Russia's Gazprom hikes natural gas prices 80% for it's Ukrainian customers, Ukraine this morning reminded Russia that its natural gas pipeline to Europe all run through Ukraine, who can shut them off if they want   (qz.com) divider line 128
    More: Interesting, natural gas prices, Gazprom, Vladimir Putin, Russia, Europe, Ukraine, Ukrainian, Government of Ukraine  
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10286 clicks; posted to Main » on 09 Apr 2014 at 3:24 PM (36 weeks ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2014-04-09 06:59:54 PM  

rev. dave: I wonder if the Russians in eastern Ukraine have considered that they are between 2 groups who might fight on their land.


No, they are just thinking the way the Russian-language agitprop they are getting from TV stations in Russia are telling them to think.

NPR did a fascinating bit on this the other day, sending people to interview protesters in East Ukraine.  They seem completely convinced that Kiev is now run by a fascist dictatorship that was installed by a joint US/EU organized and funded coup done specifically to attack Russia, and that they must turn to Russia for protection from the inevitable pogroms that will be launched against ethnic Russians.  It's some fine classic Russian agitprop that they are soaking up there.

Remember, the Russian-speaking population in Eastern Ukraine gets most of their media from Russia.  Russian TV stations along the border broadcast Russian-language (and Russian state-approved) messages to them.  They are on a steady diet of Russian propaganda as their major source of world news, so no wonder they are doing exactly what Moscow wants.

They aren't thinking of second and third order effects, they are just clamoring for Russia to come in and save them from the evil fascist Ukrainians and their American and European masters.  They don't realize the long-term effects, politically and economically, of being part of Russia, or that if war breaks out like they seem to be calling for, they are sitting on what will be the frontline.
 
2014-04-09 07:05:10 PM  

LemSkroob: nmrsnr: Which might be construed as an act of war by Russia. This might not end well.

Invading and overtaking another country wasn't?


Not on the part of Ukraine, no.
 
2014-04-09 07:05:52 PM  

hardinparamedic: Slaves2Darkness: Shut it off? No my friend we will blow it up with drones that will show those Ruskies.

FEED ME RUSSIANS!

[www.fas.org image 720x576]

[chivethebrigade.files.wordpress.com image 850x570]

[m0.i.pbase.com image 800x542]


Those aren't going to be doing much with all their ammo just left on the ground. Stupid military.
 
Oak
2014-04-09 07:06:01 PM  

Tatterdemalian: "Putin doesn't care about any of that. He's more popular than ever in Russia.

/ which is why he may balk at starting a real war with Russians dying in Ukraine."

He probably won't need to. Revolutionaries like the protestors controlling West Ukraine seldom make plans for what comes after their revolution succeeds, and almost never for when it goes wrong, like it is now. All Putin really needs to do is uphold his promise to "protect" Russian people in the Ukraine, and wait for the revolutionaries to either screw up something to the point that West Ukraine votes to join Russia just to spite the pro-West parties, or they give him an excuse to move his troops in "non-violently" to "protect" Russian minorities one province at a time, until the whole country is occupied, then put it to a "vote" that turns out to favor unification with Russia by 107%.


Why would Putin go that far?  I can see, from his POV, why he'd take the Crimea and the eastern/southern parts of Ukraine where there may very well actually be majority support for joining Russia.  Pure gain, very cost-free.  Wouldn't that be enough?
 
2014-04-09 07:15:16 PM  

FormlessOne: nmrsnr: Which might be construed as an act of war by Russia. This might not end well.

It'll be a smorgasbord of pure awesomeness. Russia invades the rest of Ukraine, NATO invades Russia, Russian oligarchs shoot Putin and offer to restore everything back to what it was prior to the Ukraine aggression (with some additional concessions), Ukraine becomes a whole country again, and there's Bigfoot nuggets for everyone!

Doooooooo eeeeeeeit.


Ukraine isn't in NATO = not gonna happen.

At least last time Russia turned off the pipes in January. Now it's already spring, so they have 6-8 months before it gets serious.
 
2014-04-09 07:20:49 PM  

MyRandomName: They actually do believe obama has issued harsh sanctions which have turned Russia back. It is laughable at best. Even those sanctioned were laughing.


The harshest thing Obama has ever issued he left in the toilet after eating at Taco Bell.
 
2014-04-09 07:25:02 PM  

Grahor: That's, at least, my plan if Russia ever invades Latvia and I'll be too old or infirm to get to the border with Poland in time.


I'm curious why you would run to Poland in that scenario when all three Baltic states are Nato and EU. Because Poland is the first Nato&EU state without a significant Russian population?
 
2014-04-09 07:39:05 PM  

Cajnik: I'm curious why you would run to Poland in that scenario when all three Baltic states are Nato and EU.


If Russia would actually invade Baltics, in hypothetical scenario, that means that Russia really means business. I don't believe Europe and US will actually really fight for Baltic states in an all-out land war against Russia really meaning business, for a number of reasons. I don't even particularly want them to. My parents won't run; they are too old; and any real war in Latvia's territory will cause horrendous casualties among civilian population.

Cajnik: Because Poland is the first Nato&EU state without a significant Russian population?


Because Poland is the only EU state which borders Baltics - I'll have to run through Lithuania to get to it. If I could run to Sweden instead, I would, but I can't walk on water. I'm not staying in Poland, either; New Zealand is wonderful this time of the year. And by that I mean "any time of the year when Russia decides to attack Baltics".

By the way, Lithuania have pretty much assimilated its Russian population, so they are the first state without significant Russian population:)
 
2014-04-09 07:52:41 PM  

Grahor: I don't believe Europe and US will actually really fight for Baltic states in an all-out land war against Russia really meaning business, for a number of reasons.


I disagree, but it's not really a test case anyone wants to find out. It's certainly it's one of the main reasons Russia was against EU/Nato talks for Ukraine - because it would force them into a decision if they really mean business or not. Unfortunately, without those backings, Russia's decisions on Ukraine are probably tipped in their favor.

Anyway, I'm opening a discussion too late at night on an article which is BS. Ukraine doesn't shut off the pipes, Russia makes that decision. Even at this point.
 
2014-04-09 07:53:13 PM  

Grahor: Cajnik: I'm curious why you would run to Poland in that scenario when all three Baltic states are Nato and EU.

If Russia would actually invade Baltics, in hypothetical scenario, that means that Russia really means business. I don't believe Europe and US will actually really fight for Baltic states in an all-out land war against Russia really meaning business, for a number of reasons. I don't even particularly want them to. My parents won't run; they are too old; and any real war in Latvia's territory will cause horrendous casualties among civilian population.

Cajnik: Because Poland is the first Nato&EU state without a significant Russian population?

Because Poland is the only EU state which borders Baltics - I'll have to run through Lithuania to get to it. If I could run to Sweden instead, I would, but I can't walk on water. I'm not staying in Poland, either; New Zealand is wonderful this time of the year. And by that I mean "any time of the year when Russia decides to attack Baltics".

By the way, Lithuania have pretty much assimilated its Russian population, so they are the first state without significant Russian population:)


There would be a big fight over that.  The United States, NATO, and the EU's reputations would all be at stake.   Failure to respond would immediately usher in the post-US era of geopolitics on the world stage.  Backing down is unthinkable.
 
2014-04-09 07:56:18 PM  

Grahor: P.S. Err, in "half of citizens" I didn't mean literally half. Ethnically more than half of the people in Ukraine have Ukrainian ethnic roots. But roughly half uses Russian in everyday life as their native language, and if your native language is Russian, you are, by Russians' definition, a Russian. Even if you are captivatingly Kenyan.


In the, 8,334,100 identified as ethnic (17.3% of the population of Ukraine), this is the combined figure for persons originating from outside of Ukraine and the autochthonous population declaring Russian ethnicity.

According to official data from the  , the Russian language is native for over 14,273,000 Ukrainian citizens (29.3% of the total population).

i.imgur.com
 
2014-04-09 07:59:53 PM  

Maul555: Grahor: Cajnik: I'm curious why you would run to Poland in that scenario when all three Baltic states are Nato and EU.

If Russia would actually invade Baltics, in hypothetical scenario, that means that Russia really means business. I don't believe Europe and US will actually really fight for Baltic states in an all-out land war against Russia really meaning business, for a number of reasons. I don't even particularly want them to. My parents won't run; they are too old; and any real war in Latvia's territory will cause horrendous casualties among civilian population.

Cajnik: Because Poland is the first Nato&EU state without a significant Russian population?

Because Poland is the only EU state which borders Baltics - I'll have to run through Lithuania to get to it. If I could run to Sweden instead, I would, but I can't walk on water. I'm not staying in Poland, either; New Zealand is wonderful this time of the year. And by that I mean "any time of the year when Russia decides to attack Baltics".

By the way, Lithuania have pretty much assimilated its Russian population, so they are the first state without significant Russian population:)

There would be a big fight over that.  The United States, NATO, and the EU's reputations would all be at stake.   Failure to respond would immediately usher in the post-US era of geopolitics on the world stage.  Backing down is unthinkable.


Grahor seriously underestimates the fact that the US Army was basically built to fark Russia's shiat up, and there are a heck of a lot of old righties just itching to use our war machine in a high intensity, open conflict.

Remember--If Oil is involved, the US will get involved. I think the Crimea is the last thing Russia can take from the Ukraine before STANAG magazines start getting emptied in Russian soldiers.
 
2014-04-09 08:20:04 PM  

nmrsnr: Which might be construed as an act of war by Russia. This might not end well.


I think casus belli is the term you are looking for. Russia would lose some money, but a dozen or so EU countries would be more upset because cutting them off from the pipelines would bring their industries to a stop.

/actually the Russian gas can be easily substituted with domestic production, but with a much higher price
 
2014-04-09 08:45:20 PM  

Grahor: NEDM: In a hypothetical fight for survival as an independent nation, the Ukrainian military wouldn't try to strike into Russia and would fight only on the defensive ...because Russia would invade them more?

Er, yes? Actually, I think that if Putin would invade East Ukraine, Ukrainian military will not fight at all, as it wasn't fighting in Crimea. For the same reason.

NEDM: When they're fighting the country who literally farking genocided them within living memory?

Right now there is no visa regime between Russia and Ukraine. If Ukrainian wants to go to Russia, he doesn't need a visa. Similarly if a Russian wants to go to Ukraine, he doesn't need visa, at least yet. Ukraine only thinks about starting issuing visas. Right now, after Crimea, after everything, citizens of Russia and Ukraine are free to move between countries without visas. And they do.

I don't think Ukrainians and Russians are thinking about each other as of actual mortal enemies. Not yet anyway.

NEDM: Did you REALLY just say all you had to do to avoid a genocide is simply claim you're not a member of the target people? ARE YOU FARKING KIDDING ME?! 

No, I'm not kidding you. At least half of citizens of Ukraine are Russians. What is the difference between ethnic Russian and ethnic Ukrainian? There are no actual documents where your ethnicity is registered. There was a census in 2001, I think but the whole "ethnicity" thing there was purely voluntary and I don't think it's in any way documented as in "this person = this ethnicity". Neither Russian or Ukrainian documents have ethnicity fields.

Sure, cultural and political national leaders will not be able to declare themselves Russians, but for a common person from the street, how would theoretical death squads discern Russians and Ukrainians? They all speak with the same accent, they have same documents and everything?


I am going to go out on a limb and guess that someone tried this when Yugoslavia fell apart. But I dont think it turned out they way you've described.
 
2014-04-09 09:19:26 PM  

Bomb Head Mohammed: "an effect on the Gazprom stock "

gazprom stock is a joke. nearly all of the real value of the company is held privately, including by its de facto majority shareholder, vladimir putin.

the stock price of gazprom is like a flag on a flagpole that the gazprom/putin inner circle moves up and down to signal whatever they feel like signalling that day.

see also, VTB bank, same basic story.


So it's like all the big companies do in North America. Those crazy "capitalists".
 
2014-04-09 10:18:20 PM  

Monkeyfark Ridiculous: ciberido: CruJones: Grahor: kbronsito: Ukraine doesn't actually have to shut the gas off... just the fact that they've said this out loud has probably already had an effect on the Gazprom stock.

Russian government owns Gazprom stock.

Russian government doesn't care about the value of the Gazprom stock because they are not going to sell it, ever. Gazprom stock may fall below zero and Russia will not care, because it's not interested in the value of Gazprom stocks. Only in the revenue from Gazprom selling of the oil.

kbronsito: You are right in that Ukraine would be smart not to blow up the pipes... but holding them hostage is different.

Ukraine once tried to hold the pipes hostage. That's why Nord Stream pipeline was born, directly from Russia to Germany. Also, large gas storages were built in Europe, and I bet my hat they were filled with gas right from the first moment there were disturbances in Ukraine.

Ukraine tried to take part of gas going to Europe for itself. Didn't go well. Stockholm court have ordered Ukraine to return the stolen gas to Russia.

Putin doesn't react well to blackmail. And if the pipes will be turned off, Putin will likely be able to continue to sell gas to Europe, while Ukraine will suffer total crush of its economy and industry, completely dependent on Russian gas and oil. That is, the part of economy and industry which haven't crushed already...

Europe is ready to sell gas to Ukraine, but only for market price - or in other words, the same price Putin offers right now.

You know how I know you didn't read the article?

He probably read it very carefully, and then spent some time thinking about what to say this time to promote Russia's position/claim.  He may honestly believe what he says, or he may be lying through his teeth, but in any case he's going to say pretty much whatever justifies Putin.


I like having one obvious shill around so I can stay infromed as to the Russian view of Gloriously Manly Leader's activities.


At least he's reasonably intelligent and polite, or so it seems to be at any rate.   I'd rather read posts from intelligent, polite people I disagree with than posts from assmongers firmly on my side.

That said, I would take anything he says with a grain or two of salt and double-check any sources.
 
2014-04-09 10:34:42 PM  

Some Coke Drinking Guy: Plus get this, after Russia and China, the biggest manufacturer of AK ammunition are probably American factories.  Uncle Sam could easily order up a few hundred million rounds, and ship them over to the Ukrainians easily enough.  Of course this would push ammo prices in the states up yet again, but for some reason, I don't think that would be a major concern for the Obama administration.  Throw in a few thousand LAW rockets, some claymore mines, and a hell of a lot of Stinger missiles, and all of a Sudden Ukraine isn't a pushover, and America hasn't gotten sucked into a war with Russia.  It's what I would do.


The Russians would be knocking on Poland's back door before we could get a significant amount of arms into the Ukraine.

And I don't think you realize how *BRUTAL* the Russians can be when they want.  They were willing to essentially sacrifice a theater full of innocents to kill a few Chechens.

Now, parts of the Ukraine might be able to maintain a low-level insurgency for a few years, but eventually the Russians will crush it.  They wouldn't leave the Ukraine like they did Afghanistan, because unlike Afghanistan, they already believe that the Ukraine is part of Russia, and their independence is a historical quirk brought about by the fall of the Soviet Union.

And it looks like they want it back.
 
2014-04-09 10:50:38 PM  

ciberido: Monkeyfark Ridiculous: ciberido: CruJones: Grahor: kbronsito: Ukraine doesn't actually have to shut the gas off... just the fact that they've said this out loud has probably already had an effect on the Gazprom stock.

Russian government owns Gazprom stock.

Russian government doesn't care about the value of the Gazprom stock because they are not going to sell it, ever. Gazprom stock may fall below zero and Russia will not care, because it's not interested in the value of Gazprom stocks. Only in the revenue from Gazprom selling of the oil.

kbronsito: You are right in that Ukraine would be smart not to blow up the pipes... but holding them hostage is different.

Ukraine once tried to hold the pipes hostage. That's why Nord Stream pipeline was born, directly from Russia to Germany. Also, large gas storages were built in Europe, and I bet my hat they were filled with gas right from the first moment there were disturbances in Ukraine.

Ukraine tried to take part of gas going to Europe for itself. Didn't go well. Stockholm court have ordered Ukraine to return the stolen gas to Russia.

Putin doesn't react well to blackmail. And if the pipes will be turned off, Putin will likely be able to continue to sell gas to Europe, while Ukraine will suffer total crush of its economy and industry, completely dependent on Russian gas and oil. That is, the part of economy and industry which haven't crushed already...

Europe is ready to sell gas to Ukraine, but only for market price - or in other words, the same price Putin offers right now.

You know how I know you didn't read the article?

He probably read it very carefully, and then spent some time thinking about what to say this time to promote Russia's position/claim.  He may honestly believe what he says, or he may be lying through his teeth, but in any case he's going to say pretty much whatever justifies Putin.


I like having one obvious shill around so I can stay infromed as to the Russian view of Gloriously Manly Leader's ...



Agreed. I wasn't being sarcastic about that; I think it's useful to have an articulate Russian apologist around.
 
2014-04-09 10:56:54 PM  

Grahor: If you can't find common language with me, convince me that your vision of the world and situation is right and mine is wrong, what chance do you have with truly different cultures?


Myself, I don't feel any need to "convince" anyone that I'm right and they're wrong about any matters of opinion or speculation. People have different opinions, and the world would be really boring if there was a single set of ways to look at things. I speak my opinion, and let people take it for whatever they will.

/naturally, for con artists who are running a scam, this is completely intolerable
//or for people that can't tolerate anyone else's way of thinking
 
2014-04-09 11:05:36 PM  

Oak: Why would Putin go that far?  I can see, from his POV, why he'd take the Crimea and the eastern/southern parts of Ukraine where there may very well actually be majority support for joining Russia.  Pure gain, very cost-free.  Wouldn't that be enough?


Because he can, and because having more farmland for a mostly icebound nation is better than having less. Plus, it makes his new territory more secure than it would be if he didn't claim it all up to a natural barrier.

/national borders are seldom drawn just because cartographers decide to put them there
//technology may render natural barriers obsolete, but if anything goes so bad that your air force is tied down elsewhere, having a border that can't be crossed by just any pitchfork-wielding peasant mob does help
 
2014-04-10 02:39:32 AM  

baorao: I am going to go out on a limb and guess that someone tried this when Yugoslavia fell apart. But I dont think it turned out they way you've described.


Because there probably were more differences between Serbs and Albanians than between Ukrainians and Russians? Visible differences, language differences, cultural differences... Ethnic Russian is indistinguishable from Ethnic Ukrainian. The only difference is self-description. While not all Russians can speak good Ukrainian, all Ukrainians can speak perfect Russian, or nearly all.

Yes, if broad ethnic cleansings were applied to whole regions, the inability to distinguish between ethnic Russians and ethnic Ukrainians would be moot, but it's not going to happen, is it? Well, ethnic cleansings will not going to happen anyway, but even in that ridiculous scenario, you would need some mechanism do distinguish ethnic Russians from ethnic Ukrainians. What is that mechanism going to be, do you think?

redmid17: According to official data from the  , the Russian language is native for over 14,273,000 Ukrainian citizens (29.3% of the total population).


Your table shows that people speaking Russian at home mainly (36.4%) and using both Russian and Ukrainian (21.4%) together represent 58% of the population. For my purposes, I've used that number, because people who use Russian in their home as native language, even if also using Ukrainian, are unlikely targets for Russian ethnic cleansings, no?

But even if we'll take just 30% of people who are not to be ethnically cleansed, shouldn't there be some mechanism to discern them from those who are to be? What would be such mechanism?

P.S. Mind you, all that talk of ethnic cleansings I find rather ridiculous, and mostly humoring people here.
 
2014-04-10 03:10:56 AM  

Grahor: But even if we'll take just 30% of people who are not to be ethnically cleansed, shouldn't there be some mechanism to discern them from those who are to be? What would be such mechanism?


The mechanism tends to be asking someone who knows or pretends to. Also, stereotyping and not particularly giving a fark whether you score 100% for accuracy.

"For practical purposes, the groups are virtually indistinguishable" - Wikipedia, on Hutu and Tutsi people.

/not saying it would happen, but since you asked
 
2014-04-10 03:51:08 AM  

Monkeyfark Ridiculous: The mechanism tends to be asking someone who knows or pretends to. Also, stereotyping and not particularly giving a fark whether you score 100% for accuracy.


Mmm, that's possible, yeah. Some local official writing some lists, including, of course, his own personal enemies, excluding those who give him bribes... Yeah, if you really don't care about actual result, this would do.

Monkeyfark Ridiculous: "For practical purposes, the groups are virtually indistinguishable" - Wikipedia, on Hutu and Tutsi people.


*sigh* that's exactly the type of information people use in discussions like this. Whatever they've read on the Wiki. And then when a person from the region tries to explain that it's not exactly correct, uses different context and so on, he is a Putin's shill.

That's what people in the region say about Hutu and Tutsi:

"Tutsis tend to be tall, and thin. They have long noses, high pitch voices, and relatively clear skin.

Hutu tend to be short, strong and have relatively broader features. They have big noses, and low pitch voices."

Then he goes he offers a lot of examples, so pretty much everyone can see the difference for himself. Even for a white person they don't look exactly alike...

http://www.quora.com/How-can-one-tell-whether-someone-is-Hutu-or-Tut si
 
2014-04-10 04:45:00 AM  

Grahor: Monkeyfark Ridiculous: The mechanism tends to be asking someone who knows or pretends to. Also, stereotyping and not particularly giving a fark whether you score 100% for accuracy.

Mmm, that's possible, yeah. Some local official writing some lists, including, of course, his own personal enemies, excluding those who give him bribes... Yeah, if you really don't care about actual result, this would do.

Monkeyfark Ridiculous: "For practical purposes, the groups are virtually indistinguishable" - Wikipedia, on Hutu and Tutsi people.

*sigh* that's exactly the type of information people use in discussions like this. Whatever they've read on the Wiki. And then when a person from the region tries to explain that it's not exactly correct, uses different context and so on, he is a Putin's shill.

That's what people in the region say about Hutu and Tutsi:

"Tutsis tend to be tall, and thin. They have long noses, high pitch voices, and relatively clear skin.

Hutu tend to be short, strong and have relatively broader features. They have big noses, and low pitch voices."

Then he goes he offers a lot of examples, so pretty much everyone can see the difference for himself. Even for a white person they don't look exactly alike...

http://www.quora.com/How-can-one-tell-whether-someone-is-Hutu-or-Tuti s



That is "stereotyping," which I already acknowledged would be an include feature of any persecution package. There's always a "_____ tend to be."

Think Ukrainians will be the exception? Check out some of these brain-injuring comments:  http://www.differencebetween.net/miscellaneous/difference-between-ukr a inian-and-russian/

The point of quoting Wikipedia was that claiming two groups are indistinguishable, whether it is you or "anthropologists" doing it, is not going to keep those groups from killing the fark out of each other.
 
2014-04-10 05:57:50 AM  

Grahor: Monkeyfark Ridiculous: The mechanism tends to be asking someone who knows or pretends to. Also, stereotyping and not particularly giving a fark whether you score 100% for accuracy.

Mmm, that's possible, yeah. Some local official writing some lists, including, of course, his own personal enemies, excluding those who give him bribes... Yeah, if you really don't care about actual result, this would do.

Monkeyfark Ridiculous: "For practical purposes, the groups are virtually indistinguishable" - Wikipedia, on Hutu and Tutsi people.

*sigh* that's exactly the type of information people use in discussions like this. Whatever they've read on the Wiki. And then when a person from the region tries to explain that it's not exactly correct, uses different context and so on, he is a Putin's shill.

That's what people in the region say about Hutu and Tutsi:

"Tutsis tend to be tall, and thin. They have long noses, high pitch voices, and relatively clear skin.

Hutu tend to be short, strong and have relatively broader features. They have big noses, and low pitch voices."

Then he goes he offers a lot of examples, so pretty much everyone can see the difference for himself. Even for a white person they don't look exactly alike...

http://www.quora.com/How-can-one-tell-whether-someone-is-Hutu-or-Tut si


www.quickmeme.com
 
2014-04-10 09:23:19 AM  

Monkeyfark Ridiculous: That is "stereotyping," which I already acknowledged would be an include feature of any persecution package. There's always a "_____ tend to be."


Well, yeah, true. However, there are stereotypes useful for ethnic identification ('tall, thin, lighter skin, doesn't speak whatever') and not useful ('inherently inferior, stupid, says the word beer in a funny way, loves lard'). There was an old anecdote about Ukrainian nationalist trying to find out who out of the group of people are "Moscaly" - Russians. The only thing that helped him was that Russians didn't know how to correctly say the time in Ukrainian.

Tutsi and Hutu could and can recognize each other by one look, even if it's never 100% correct. I am utterly unable to discern Russian and Ukrainian. If a Ukrainian can say that this is a Russian, because he doesn't speak Ukrainian correctly, the wast majority of Ukrainians speak Russian indescernably from Russians themselves. There really aren't stereotypes that will help to find a Ukrainian in a Russian crowd.

Here are images of Ukrainian parliament. It is utterly impossible to decide which ones are Ukrainians, and which ones are Russians here.  http://www.businessinsider.com/all-out-brawl-breaks-out-in-ukraine-pa r liament-over-how-to-stop-russia-photos-2014-4

Monkeyfark Ridiculous: Think Ukrainians will be the exception? Check out some of these brain-injuring comments:


Well, now my brains are hurting... :)

Monkeyfark Ridiculous: The point of quoting Wikipedia was that claiming two groups are indistinguishable, whether it is you or "anthropologists" doing it, is not going to keep those groups from killing the fark out of each other.


Well, yeah! But so far both groups have to wear something to identify itself, otherwise they don't know whom to hit...
 
2014-04-10 11:00:50 AM  

Grahor: Monkeyfark Ridiculous: That is "stereotyping," which I already acknowledged would be an include feature of any persecution package. There's always a "_____ tend to be."

Well, yeah, true. However, there are stereotypes useful for ethnic identification ('tall, thin, lighter skin, doesn't speak whatever') and not useful ('inherently inferior, stupid, says the word beer in a funny way, loves lard'). There was an old anecdote about Ukrainian nationalist trying to find out who out of the group of people are "Moscaly" - Russians. The only thing that helped him was that Russians didn't know how to correctly say the time in Ukrainian.

Tutsi and Hutu could and can recognize each other by one look, even if it's never 100% correct. I am utterly unable to discern Russian and Ukrainian. If a Ukrainian can say that this is a Russian, because he doesn't speak Ukrainian correctly, the wast majority of Ukrainians speak Russian indescernably from Russians themselves. There really aren't stereotypes that will help to find a Ukrainian in a Russian crowd.


Hutus and Tutsuis can't really recognize each other, either, with any greater reliability than simple guessing. The Rwandan war saw more Hutus being killed by the Hutu death squads than Tutsuis, even though Tutsuis were 15% of the population. They just assume that, if they kill someone who later turns out to be of their own "race," he/she is posthumously declared a sympathiser with the other "race,"

/that's one of the benefits of abandoning science for superstition, you are never wrong as long as you have a majority that agrees with you
//and you can declare anyone who disagrees with you an enemy
///even if they aren't, it makes no difference when they're dead and their friends and family are too scared to dissent
 
2014-04-10 11:24:46 PM  

Alassra: If Ukraine flips that switch, I think (despite how it might be initially painful for them), Europe will silently be cheering.


It's probably what Putin wants to happen. It gives him a reason to invade the rest of Ukraine.
 
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