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(Quartz)   After Russia's Gazprom hikes natural gas prices 80% for it's Ukrainian customers, Ukraine this morning reminded Russia that its natural gas pipeline to Europe all run through Ukraine, who can shut them off if they want   (qz.com) divider line 128
    More: Interesting, natural gas prices, Gazprom, Vladimir Putin, Russia, Europe, Ukraine, Ukrainian, Government of Ukraine  
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10276 clicks; posted to Main » on 09 Apr 2014 at 3:24 PM (23 weeks ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2014-04-09 01:42:25 PM
Which might be construed as an act of war by Russia. This might not end well.
 
2014-04-09 01:51:09 PM
Isn't this the whole reason why Russia wants to annex Crimea?
 
2014-04-09 01:52:54 PM

nmrsnr: Which might be construed as an act of war by Russia. This might not end well.


Sure it will.  For Russia.
 
2014-04-09 01:58:19 PM

dittybopper: nmrsnr: Which might be construed as an act of war by Russia. This might not end well.

Sure it will.  For Russia.


In what scenario does it end well for Russia?
 
2014-04-09 02:09:13 PM

cameroncrazy1984: dittybopper: nmrsnr: Which might be construed as an act of war by Russia. This might not end well.

Sure it will.  For Russia.

In what scenario does it end well for Russia?


They end up completely controlling the Ukraine like they did before the breakup of the Soviet Union.

No one thinks the Ukrainians will be able to mount a serious resistance, and *WE* certainly aren't going to go to war with Russia over the Ukraine.

They've been gearing up for it.  You know it's going to happen.
 
2014-04-09 02:44:14 PM
DO IT! DO IT!
 
2014-04-09 02:52:28 PM

nmrsnr: Which might be construed as an act of war by Russia. This might not end well.


Ukraine doesn't actually have to shut the gas off... just the fact that they've said this out loud has probably already had an effect on the Gazprom stock. You are right in that Ukraine would be smart not to blow up the pipes... but holding them hostage is different.
 
2014-04-09 03:29:52 PM

Donnchadha: Isn't this the whole reason why Russia wants to annex Crimea Ukraine?


FTFY
 
2014-04-09 03:31:57 PM
"an effect on the Gazprom stock "

gazprom stock is a joke. nearly all of the real value of the company is held privately, including by its de facto majority shareholder, vladimir putin.

the stock price of gazprom is like a flag on a flagpole that the gazprom/putin inner circle moves up and down to signal whatever they feel like signalling that day.

see also, VTB bank, same basic story.
 
2014-04-09 03:33:58 PM
If Ukraine flips that switch, I think (despite how it might be initially painful for them), Europe will silently be cheering.
 
2014-04-09 03:40:44 PM
How did subby manage to use "it's" incorrectly, and then use "its" correctly in the headline?
 
2014-04-09 03:41:39 PM

Alassra: If Ukraine flips that switch, I think (despite how it might be initially painful for them), Europe will silently be cheering.


And reaching for their sweaters.
 
2014-04-09 03:43:13 PM
dittybopper:
No one thinks the Ukrainians will be able to mount a serious resistance, and *WE* certainly aren't going to go to war with Russia over the Ukraine.


Maybe not in terms of being able to stop the Russians from rolling over, but in West Ukraine you can bet there would be a very healthy insurgency.

And unlike Chechnya, it would be right on Europe's doorstep.
 
2014-04-09 03:45:47 PM
Sounds like the perfect pretext for war.  Everything is going according to plan.
 
2014-04-09 03:47:20 PM
I think there are some grammar issues with the headline but it's 80 degrees and almost happy hour
 
2014-04-09 03:48:31 PM

nmrsnr: Which might be construed as an act of war by Russia. This might not end well.


img59.imageshack.us
 
2014-04-09 03:49:10 PM

kbronsito: Ukraine doesn't actually have to shut the gas off... just the fact that they've said this out loud has probably already had an effect on the Gazprom stock.


Russian government owns Gazprom stock.

Russian government doesn't care about the value of the Gazprom stock because they are not going to sell it, ever. Gazprom stock may fall below zero and Russia will not care, because it's not interested in the value of Gazprom stocks. Only in the revenue from Gazprom selling of the oil.

kbronsito: You are right in that Ukraine would be smart not to blow up the pipes... but holding them hostage is different.


Ukraine once tried to hold the pipes hostage. That's why Nord Stream pipeline was born, directly from Russia to Germany. Also, large gas storages were built in Europe, and I bet my hat they were filled with gas right from the first moment there were disturbances in Ukraine.

Ukraine tried to take part of gas going to Europe for itself. Didn't go well. Stockholm court have ordered Ukraine to return the stolen gas to Russia.

Putin doesn't react well to blackmail. And if the pipes will be turned off, Putin will likely be able to continue to sell gas to Europe, while Ukraine will suffer total crush of its economy and industry, completely dependent on Russian gas and oil. That is, the part of economy and industry which haven't crushed already...

Europe is ready to sell gas to Ukraine, but only for market price - or in other words, the same price Putin offers right now.
 
2014-04-09 03:49:33 PM
Besides the horrible engrish, subby is factually wrong, half the gas goes thought the Ukraine, per TFA?
 
2014-04-09 03:50:47 PM

Gyro the Greek Sandwich Pirate: dittybopper:
No one thinks the Ukrainians will be able to mount a serious resistance, and *WE* certainly aren't going to go to war with Russia over the Ukraine.


Maybe not in terms of being able to stop the Russians from rolling over, but in West Ukraine you can bet there would be a very healthy insurgency.

And unlike Chechnya, it would be right on Europe's doorstep.


Ukraine used to have nukes, before they agreed to give them up. Any bets on them having restarted their program since it's become obvious the US and UK aren't backing up their end of the Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances? Any idea how long that would take?
 
2014-04-09 03:50:48 PM

Grahor: kbronsito: Ukraine doesn't actually have to shut the gas off... just the fact that they've said this out loud has probably already had an effect on the Gazprom stock.

Russian government owns Gazprom stock.

Russian government doesn't care about the value of the Gazprom stock because they are not going to sell it, ever. Gazprom stock may fall below zero and Russia will not care, because it's not interested in the value of Gazprom stocks. Only in the revenue from Gazprom selling of the oil.

kbronsito: You are right in that Ukraine would be smart not to blow up the pipes... but holding them hostage is different.

Ukraine once tried to hold the pipes hostage. That's why Nord Stream pipeline was born, directly from Russia to Germany. Also, large gas storages were built in Europe, and I bet my hat they were filled with gas right from the first moment there were disturbances in Ukraine.

Ukraine tried to take part of gas going to Europe for itself. Didn't go well. Stockholm court have ordered Ukraine to return the stolen gas to Russia.

Putin doesn't react well to blackmail. And if the pipes will be turned off, Putin will likely be able to continue to sell gas to Europe, while Ukraine will suffer total crush of its economy and industry, completely dependent on Russian gas and oil. That is, the part of economy and industry which haven't crushed already...

Europe is ready to sell gas to Ukraine, but only for market price - or in other words, the same price Putin offers right now.


You know how I know you didn't read the article?
 
2014-04-09 03:56:30 PM

Alassra: If Ukraine flips that switch, I think (despite how it might be initially painful for them), Europe will silently be cheering.


Which Europe? Germany has its own gas pipeline from Russia, so Germany will not be affected. However, Slovenia, Slovakia, Chech, Bulgary, Greece will see their economy crush and burn, because natural gas is used not just for heating, but mostly for powering the industry. And they'll scream bloody murder at Ukraine. They certainly doesn't love Russia and want to stop it, but not for the price of their own economy crushing. This is a sacrifice they aren't ready to make.
 
2014-04-09 04:00:52 PM
I wonder if the Russians in eastern Ukraine have considered that they are between 2 groups who might fight on their land.
 
2014-04-09 04:00:58 PM

dittybopper: cameroncrazy1984: dittybopper: nmrsnr: Which might be construed as an act of war by Russia. This might not end well.

Sure it will.  For Russia.

In what scenario does it end well for Russia?

They end up completely controlling the Ukraine like they did before the breakup of the Soviet Union.

No one thinks the Ukrainians will be able to mount a serious resistance, and *WE* certainly aren't going to go to war with Russia over the Ukraine.

They've been gearing up for it.  You know it's going to happen.


Actually, the Ukrainian army is about a quarter the size of the Russian, and has the advantage that all of their military is located in Ukraine, while the Russians still have to commit vast numbers of troops to other regions.  A lot of those troops are in Chechnya, who could decide to take advantage of Putin's distraction to light the whole region on fire.

Plus get this, after Russia and China, the biggest manufacturer of AK ammunition are probably American factories.  Uncle Sam could easily order up a few hundred million rounds, and ship them over to the Ukrainians easily enough.  Of course this would push ammo prices in the states up yet again, but for some reason, I don't think that would be a major concern for the Obama administration.  Throw in a few thousand LAW rockets, some claymore mines, and a hell of a lot of Stinger missiles, and all of a Sudden Ukraine isn't a pushover, and America hasn't gotten sucked into a war with Russia.  It's what I would do.
 
2014-04-09 04:01:08 PM
Grahor: ...Greece will see their economy crush and burn...

It can still do that?
 
2014-04-09 04:01:24 PM

dancindan84: Any bets on them having restarted their program since it's become obvious the US and UK aren't backing up their end of the Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances?


Oh, they are certainly going to. It's a very popular idea in Ukraine.

dancindan84: Any idea how long that would take?


Let me think... Right now Ukraine is collecting money for its army through sms. Like, you know, "send sms at that number if you love your Country and want to stop Russians from capturing it!" That's mostly for soldiers' wages and oil (do you know that army consumes unholy amount of oil?)

So, considering financial investments necessary for nuclear development... mmmm... Oh, it's 2 months, 11 days and 7 hours after they fix their economy! And that'll probably just take no more than a year after Ukraine will stop being the country with most corruption in Europe, even more than Russia and Moldova. So, like, eleventy forevers?
 
2014-04-09 04:01:48 PM

CruJones: Grahor: kbronsito: Ukraine doesn't actually have to shut the gas off... just the fact that they've said this out loud has probably already had an effect on the Gazprom stock.

Russian government owns Gazprom stock.

Russian government doesn't care about the value of the Gazprom stock because they are not going to sell it, ever. Gazprom stock may fall below zero and Russia will not care, because it's not interested in the value of Gazprom stocks. Only in the revenue from Gazprom selling of the oil.

kbronsito: You are right in that Ukraine would be smart not to blow up the pipes... but holding them hostage is different.

Ukraine once tried to hold the pipes hostage. That's why Nord Stream pipeline was born, directly from Russia to Germany. Also, large gas storages were built in Europe, and I bet my hat they were filled with gas right from the first moment there were disturbances in Ukraine.

Ukraine tried to take part of gas going to Europe for itself. Didn't go well. Stockholm court have ordered Ukraine to return the stolen gas to Russia.

Putin doesn't react well to blackmail. And if the pipes will be turned off, Putin will likely be able to continue to sell gas to Europe, while Ukraine will suffer total crush of its economy and industry, completely dependent on Russian gas and oil. That is, the part of economy and industry which haven't crushed already...

Europe is ready to sell gas to Ukraine, but only for market price - or in other words, the same price Putin offers right now.

You know how I know you didn't read the article?


In his Russia, article sends you to Gulag
 
2014-04-09 04:02:34 PM

CruJones: Grahor:
Putin doesn't react well to blackmail. blah blah blah,,,

You know how I know you didn't read the article?

don't bother pointing out the obvious,
Grahor is russian shill
Lost Ukraine = brilliant move by Putin!
Invade tiny peninsula where they already had bases = brilliant move by Putin!
Turkey threatens to shut their fleet in the Black Seal = brilliant move by Putin!
Sanctions costing Russia over 100 Billion this year = brilliant move by Putin!

you get the idea, the man is a GENIUS!
 
2014-04-09 04:02:43 PM
This is Russia creating a 'problem' that they can resolve in an act of concession, to flip the west the bird, but re-affirm their control over what it was they really wanted.

It's not unlike the situation with the Syrian chemical weapons. The west makes an offhand suggestion of what compromise would look like, if Putin wasn't such an evil bastard, and Putin accepts. (Apparently flipping off the west is suitable cover for making concessions) The west got to ignore the chemical weapon problem. Putin got to keep his port and client state. And everyone moves on from the actual problem having gotten what they wanted (except the Syrians).

So In this case: Russia makes a little trouble outside Crimea, the west demonizes Putin and and says he's incapable of a reasonable compromise like, i dunno, a coalition of nations hammering out a long term contract to ensure the security of the pipeline and Ukraine's (new) borders. Putin accepts, looking like a stud for (again) making the west look like assholes. The west gets some energy security and the appearance of border stability. Putin gets to keep his port and client state (and likely a tidy profit for re-negotiating energy contracts with stressed counter-parties). And everyone moves on from the actual problem, having gotten what they wanted (except the Ukrainians).
 
2014-04-09 04:03:23 PM

CruJones: You know how I know you didn't read the article?


No. Educate me. I'm holding my breath in anticipation.
 
2014-04-09 04:07:03 PM
Hey, Russia...

i.imgur.com
 
2014-04-09 04:08:59 PM

Gawdzila: Hey, Russia...

[i.imgur.com image 281x211]


.......on the heels of a warm-ish winter.  Gas reserves are pretty high all over the continent right now.
 
2014-04-09 04:09:10 PM

dancindan84: Grahor: ...Greece will see their economy crush and burn...

It can still do that?


There is this little piece, you can't see it from here, but it's there. Right over there! That still hasn't burn completely to the ground.

I can't see it from here either, but I'm told it's nice
 
2014-04-09 04:09:12 PM
kbronsito:  You are right in that Ukraine would be smart not to blow up the pipes... but holding them hostage is different.

Stupid question here:  Are there any valves that are under Ukrainian control?  i.e., if they wanted to stop gas flow across their territory without damaging the pipes, how hard is that to do?
 
2014-04-09 04:09:13 PM

Grahor: CruJones: You know how I know you didn't read the article?

No. Educate me. I'm holding my breath in anticipation.


You're so cute when you lie.
 
2014-04-09 04:09:30 PM

Grahor: Ukraine once tried to hold the pipes hostage. That's why Nord Stream pipeline was born, directly from Russia to Germany.


Sort of. It actually runs through Danish territorial waters for 47 miles.
 
2014-04-09 04:10:06 PM

Grahor: CruJones: You know how I know you didn't read the article?

No. Educate me. I'm holding my breath in anticipation.


Keep holding. We'll get the education part in about 10 minutes.
 
2014-04-09 04:11:39 PM
Shut it off? No my friend we will blow it up with drones that will show those Ruskies.
 
2014-04-09 04:12:31 PM

tinyarena: CruJones: Grahor:
Putin doesn't react well to blackmail. blah blah blah,,,

You know how I know you didn't read the article?
don't bother pointing out the obvious,
Grahor is russian shill
Lost Ukraine = brilliant move by Putin!
Invade tiny peninsula where they already had bases = brilliant move by Putin!
Turkey threatens to shut their fleet in the Black Seal = brilliant move by Putin!
Sanctions costing Russia over 100 Billion this year = brilliant move by Putin!

you get the idea, the man is a GENIUS!

Before I finished the first sentence in that brilliant response, my inner monologue switched to 80s movie Russian accent.

 
2014-04-09 04:15:40 PM
WHO CONTROL BARTERTOWN?
 
2014-04-09 04:16:39 PM

Slaves2Darkness: Shut it off? No my friend we will blow it up with drones that will show those Ruskies.


FEED ME RUSSIANS!

www.fas.org

chivethebrigade.files.wordpress.com

m0.i.pbase.com
 
2014-04-09 04:16:54 PM

flondrix: kbronsito:  You are right in that Ukraine would be smart not to blow up the pipes... but holding them hostage is different.

Stupid question here:  Are there any valves that are under Ukrainian control?  i.e., if they wanted to stop gas flow across their territory without damaging the pipes, how hard is that to do?


IDK how this works... but i've seen the pipes on various maps and these pipes go for long stretches of Ukraine, which is a fairly large country. there would have to be valves at some sort of regular interval just for safety issues, right? I would expect that interval to be shorter than the length of Ukraine.
 
2014-04-09 04:18:36 PM

rev. dave: I wonder if the Russians in eastern Ukraine have considered that they are between 2 groups who might fight on their land.


No. They don't see the invasion of Russia in the East Ukraine going much different than in Crimea. Certainly no one expects fight to the death in the East Ukraine.

If Russia were to invade Central and West Ukraine, that would be different. Central and West Ukraine will fight to the death. That's why Putin will not invade Central and West Ukraine. But invasion to East Ukraine will unlikely to cause an all-out war.

Armed forces of Ukraine are serving by territory, so in Crimea the majority of Ukrainian armed forces were Crimeans. That's why Ukrainian army in Crimea (18000 strong) in its majority joined Russian army (3000 at this moment have already became active soldiers of Russian army) or remained in Crimea as Russian citizens.

By the way, Ukrainian army, I think, somewhere 100000 strong. Considering that they've just lost 15000 or so in Crimea to Russians, that's 15% reduction in Ukrainian army without a singe shot...

Similarly, Ukrainian forces in East Ukraine are unreliable. For example, in current disturbances with pro-Russian groups in Donetsk, at least 30% of police actively sabotaged the efforts of Kiev to arrest those groups, even at the risk of being fired (that's by the words of Kiev's government). Ukrainian army in Donetsk and Luhansk may not join Russian army, but neither they are going to fight to death.
 
2014-04-09 04:26:01 PM

flondrix: Are there any valves that are under Ukrainian control?


All of them are completely under Ukrainian control.

flondrix: i.e., if they wanted to stop gas flow across their territory without damaging the pipes, how hard is that to do?


Physically, they are completely in control of them. They can stop gas flowing at any moment.

Contractually, however, they have obligations. Not just between them and Russia, but obligations to other European states. By stopping the gas they'll break those obligations. They've already done it once and were punished for it by European courts. So, they can do it at any moment, but it has long-term consequences.
 
2014-04-09 04:26:38 PM
[m0.i.pbase.com image 800x542]

That's some really horrendous nose art.
 
2014-04-09 04:27:26 PM

nmrsnr: Which might be construed as an act of war by Russia. This might not end well.


In Europe, where you have a "right" to buy things, sure it does.

But doesnt France make all its power via nuclear, and Germany uses solar?
 
2014-04-09 04:28:07 PM

Grahor: Ukrainian army in Donetsk and Luhansk may not join Russian army, but neither they are going to fight to death.


The Ukrainian air force won't fight for eastern Ukraine in Donetsk. They'll fight for Ukraine in Moscow.
 
2014-04-09 04:36:30 PM

Grahor: Which Europe? Germany has its own gas pipeline from Russia, so Germany will not be affected. However, Slovenia, Slovakia, Chech, Bulgary, Greece will see their economy crush and burn, because natural gas is used not just for heating, but mostly for powering the industry. And they'll scream bloody murder at Ukraine. They certainly doesn't love Russia and want to stop it, but not for the price of their own economy crushing. This is a sacrifice they aren't ready to make.


"I'm Vladmir Putin, and I approve of this message because if capitalism taught me anything its the value of paid propaganda- er- marketing. Da, marketing."
 
2014-04-09 04:36:55 PM

Some Coke Drinking Guy: dittybopper: cameroncrazy1984: dittybopper: nmrsnr: Which might be construed as an act of war by Russia. This might not end well.

Sure it will.  For Russia.

In what scenario does it end well for Russia?

They end up completely controlling the Ukraine like they did before the breakup of the Soviet Union.

No one thinks the Ukrainians will be able to mount a serious resistance, and *WE* certainly aren't going to go to war with Russia over the Ukraine.

They've been gearing up for it.  You know it's going to happen.

Actually, the Ukrainian army is about a quarter the size of the Russian, and has the advantage that all of their military is located in Ukraine, while the Russians still have to commit vast numbers of troops to other regions.  A lot of those troops are in Chechnya, who could decide to take advantage of Putin's distraction to light the whole region on fire.

Plus get this, after Russia and China, the biggest manufacturer of AK ammunition are probably American factories.  Uncle Sam could easily order up a few hundred million rounds, and ship them over to the Ukrainians easily enough.  Of course this would push ammo prices in the states up yet again, but for some reason, I don't think that would be a major concern for the Obama administration.  Throw in a few thousand LAW rockets, some claymore mines, and a hell of a lot of Stinger missiles, and all of a Sudden Ukraine isn't a pushover, and America hasn't gotten sucked into a war with Russia.  It's what I would do.


Not to mention, the Urkaine is where the Soviets generally got a lot of their bad-asses and nice military equipment back in the Cold War days. It was one of the keys parts of the Soviet Union, which is why Putin wants it back so badly.
 
2014-04-09 04:47:12 PM
www.americavictorious.com
 
2014-04-09 04:51:14 PM

theorellior: Grahor: CruJones: You know how I know you didn't read the article?

No. Educate me. I'm holding my breath in anticipation.

You're so cute when you lie.


Grahor isn't lying, he doesn't know how you know...because he didn't read the article.
 
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