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(Zero Hedge)   Will the world's greatest economic power please step forward? Not so fast there, Uncle Sam   (zerohedge.com) divider line 171
    More: Sad, Uncle Sam, BBVA, market power  
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5420 clicks; posted to Politics » on 06 Apr 2014 at 5:12 AM (33 weeks ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2014-04-06 09:38:22 AM  

Crotchrocket Slim: wrs1864: The actual BBVA report is all about exports.   Funny how that was barely mentioned in the linked article

On that front things are about to look extra lolzy for Russia. Germany etc. already is cooking up contingency plans to wean off Russian oil and that's about all they export. Who wants to buy Russian manufactured goods even when they aren't invading their neighbors?


Yes, Russia isn't going to be part of G anything for a long time, but neither is Europe going to stop buying their oil and gas.
 
2014-04-06 09:39:11 AM  
Thanks, Obama.

graphics8.nytimes.com
 
2014-04-06 09:39:56 AM  

Animatronik: rev. dave: The US is not at the top because of the rising oligarchy.  The more power they have, the weaker we get.

Do you have any understanding of the gap between rich and poor in China? Do you have any understanding of China at all?


Yes. It's a place where everybody drives a Buick and shiats in the street.
 
2014-04-06 09:41:27 AM  

Animatronik: rev. dave: The US is not at the top because of the rising oligarchy.  The more power they have, the weaker we get.

Do you have any understanding of the gap between rich and poor in China? Do you have any understanding of China at all?


There's a weird fallacy where people slip into absolute measures in a situation where relative measures govern. I don't think there's a formal name for it, but there should be.
 
2014-04-06 09:42:56 AM  

Soonerpsycho: Thanks, Obama.

[graphics8.nytimes.com image 533x355]


What? On top af the arugula and the Grey Poupon, the son-of-a-biatch READS BOOKS???
Impeachment time!
 
2014-04-06 09:44:10 AM  

BeesNuts: DRTFA But when looking at any economic data from China I immediately subtract about 50% of the trade numbers from the total.  I'm sorry, but shipping from a manufacturing plant in Shen Zhen to an assembly plant in Hong Kong does not count as an import, an export, or an import/export.  If their trade factors into this assessment at all, take it with a grain of salt.


If you add up all the world's import/export numbers, they don't add-up to zero. There's a net positive.

stickerish.com


/So Earth is exporting to aliens and it's being beautifully hidden by the alien overlords
 
2014-04-06 09:45:24 AM  
Our unending race to the bottom will not return us to dominance.
 
2014-04-06 09:45:43 AM  

Mugato: I thought everyone knew this. Go somewhere other than a gun store and try to find something not made in China. I mean you can do it but it'll take a few tries.


even my favorite Japanese wristwatch ( Casio G-shock) is now made in China....

/ build quality appears to be the same...although time will tell...
 
2014-04-06 09:51:59 AM  

Jim_Callahan: Yeah, I think any ranking of economic power that places Russia ahead of the US can be very, very safely disregarded as the fever-dreams of a drug addict trying to cold-turkey Heroin.

To have any greater disconnect from reality you'd have to literally have a clinical diagnosis of schizophrenia going on.


I'd like to see these people would put their money where their mouth is and put all their money into the Russian or Chinese stock markets rather than a US S&P 500 index fund.
 
2014-04-06 09:56:44 AM  

vygramul: If you add up all the world's import/export numbers, they don't add-up to zero. There's a net positive.

[stickerish.com image 300x300]


/So Earth is exporting to aliens and it's being beautifully hidden by the alien overlords


Really?   I thought it was the opposite and wikipedia say world imports are $18T while exports are $17.8T.  Reason?  Imports are taxed and therefore carefully measured, exports, not so much.
 
2014-04-06 09:59:36 AM  

wrs1864: vygramul: If you add up all the world's import/export numbers, they don't add-up to zero. There's a net positive.

[stickerish.com image 300x300]


/So Earth is exporting to aliens and it's being beautifully hidden by the alien overlords

Really?   I thought it was the opposite and wikipedia say world imports are $18T while exports are $17.8T.  Reason?  Imports are taxed and therefore carefully measured, exports, not so much.


I guess the flow has reversed since last I looked. Now we're importing from the aliens. What are we importing? Is that what's causing Autism?
 
2014-04-06 10:00:24 AM  
China is to world as Texas is to the US. On the surface, it looks pretty great with a fast-growing economy, wealth, and increase in jobs, as well as having a ton of political muscle.

Once you look a little bit closer though, you'll see that there are many many hidden problems that aren't immediately noticed. Sure, the economy is booming, but it's been done at the expense of environmental pollution and safety concerns (lead toys, anyone?). The "wealth" is insanely unequally distributed and there is a humongous rich-poor gap, especially between the urban and rural populations. The "jobs created" are mostly slave-labor wages and don't do anything to increase the standard of living or fix the aforementioned wealth gap. It always amuses me when I hear people talking about how China will soon eclipse us as the world's major superpower and that we are doomed to be their subjects soon. Much like Russia (as has been shown with the Ukraine crisis episode), China is an emperor with no clothes and is still very very far from reaching "first-world country" status anytime soon.

/going back to visit China soon
//not very excited about it
 
2014-04-06 10:00:49 AM  
Elect a socialist President then convince half the population that success is evil and corrupt and never earned and things like this eventually happen.

Spend whatever time is left suing each other because somebody got their feelings hurt and here we are.
 
2014-04-06 10:03:26 AM  

wrs1864: vygramul: If you add up all the world's import/export numbers, they don't add-up to zero. There's a net positive.

[stickerish.com image 300x300]


/So Earth is exporting to aliens and it's being beautifully hidden by the alien overlords

Really?   I thought it was the opposite and wikipedia say world imports are $18T while exports are $17.8T.  Reason?  Imports are taxed and therefore carefully measured, exports, not so much.


Oh, and the reason to bias towards exports is because governments want to look good to their people. So a country like Best Korea can have $4m in exports and $3m in imports because they don't count a bunch of stuff like food aid they don't really care to report.
 
2014-04-06 10:03:46 AM  

Soonerpsycho: Thanks, Obama.

[graphics8.nytimes.com image 533x355]


Fareed Zakaria? Sounds Muslimy. I bet that book is some sort of Al Qaeda training manual.
 
2014-04-06 10:05:02 AM  

cchris_39: Elect a socialist President then convince half the population that success is evil and corrupt and never earned and things like this eventually happen.

Spend whatever time is left suing each other because somebody got their feelings hurt and here we are.


In other news, cchris_39 prefers China's government to ours.
 
2014-04-06 10:06:44 AM  

cchris_39: Elect a socialist President then convince half the population that success is evil and corrupt and never earned and things like this eventually happen.

Spend whatever time is left suing each other because somebody got their feelings hurt and here we are.


So this has been going on since Reagan? He's the socialist you're talking about, right?
 
2014-04-06 10:09:19 AM  

cchris_39: Elect a socialist President then convince half the population that success is evil and corrupt and never earned and things like this eventually happen.

Spend whatever time is left suing each other because somebody got their feelings hurt and here we are.


Soooo... are you saying that you would prefer having an actual socialist economy like China's then? How about an actual oligarchy government like what the Chinese communist party pretty much is nowadays?

Or are you just another useful idiot who spouts out conservative buzzwords without really understanding what they mean?
 
2014-04-06 10:10:01 AM  

cchris_39: Elect a socialist President then convince half the population that success is evil and corrupt and never earned and things like this eventually happen.

Spend whatever time is left suing each other because somebody got their feelings hurt and here we are.

mashable.com
 
2014-04-06 10:15:13 AM  

Animatronik: rev. dave: The US is not at the top because of the rising oligarchy.  The more power they have, the weaker we get.

Do you have any understanding of the gap between rich and poor in China? Do you have any understanding of China at all?


It matters more to us because of our consumer centric economy.  The Chinese economy relies on imports and exports.  They are actually a much "richer" country in general.  Our advantage lies in our ability to maximize our potential.  Being much younger than China, we are much more flexible.  But that flexibility demands full participation in our domestic economy.  We have falling employment participation, stagnant consumer demand, mostly static hiring...

Their participation rate in China is increasing, and ours is falling.  We were neck-a-neck before.

The health of the economy has much more to do with rates of change than absolute values.
 
2014-04-06 10:24:45 AM  

TuteTibiImperes: So what exactly is that graph measuring?  If you look at GDP or GNP the US is two to three times as large as China.  Plus, China's economy is almost entirely dependent on the US and other wealthy nations buying Chinese produced goods.  If the US were to be suddenly wiped off the map it would be much worse for China than if the reverse were to happen for the US.


Our GDP is so high that when you manipulate the statistics it is easy to come up with something like this. Not saying we have not slown down but its going to be a long time before China catches up with us. Thats if we stand still and do nothing.
 
2014-04-06 10:39:52 AM  
Forgetting the accuracy of the ranking for the moment:

There is no shame in China overtaking the U.S. anyways. It has over three times our population ffs. You literally have to be wishing poverty on the Chinese to demand they be held back and remain below us in economic terms.
 
2014-04-06 10:46:50 AM  

Forbidden Doughnut: Mugato: I thought everyone knew this. Go somewhere other than a gun store and try to find something not made in China. I mean you can do it but it'll take a few tries.

even my favorite Japanese wristwatch ( Casio G-shock) is now made in China....

/ build quality appears to be the same...although time will tell...


For Japanese watches there are kind of two tiers: mass-market stuff designed in Japan and manufactured in China or Thailand, and the good stuff manufactured in Japan, usually just for the domestic market.  If you're willing to spend around $400+ on a G-Shock or $1000 on a Seiko, you'll start seeing Made in Japan on them again.
 
2014-04-06 10:53:37 AM  

Koodz: Forbidden Doughnut: Mugato: I thought everyone knew this. Go somewhere other than a gun store and try to find something not made in China. I mean you can do it but it'll take a few tries.

even my favorite Japanese wristwatch ( Casio G-shock) is now made in China....

/ build quality appears to be the same...although time will tell...

For Japanese watches there are kind of two tiers: mass-market stuff designed in Japan and manufactured in China or Thailand, and the good stuff manufactured in Japan, usually just for the domestic market.  If you're willing to spend around $400+ on a G-Shock or $1000 on a Seiko, you'll start seeing Made in Japan on them again.


I just tape a paystub and bank statement to my wrist to prove worth. I use my phone to check the time.
 
2014-04-06 10:56:54 AM  

the_vegetarian_cannibal: The "wealth" is insanely unequally distributed and there is a humongous rich-poor gap, especially between the urban and rural populations.


You know what states have the most inequality of wealth? Hint: not Texas. They're third. New York and Connecticut are 1-2 and they have the same issue - on paper, they should be the anti-Texas and a progressives' paradise. Immense social programs, (in NY) by far the nation's largest Medicaid budget, massive spending on education, high taxes on the rich, high taxes on fossil fuels, (hell, high taxes on everybody and everything), a well-compensated public sector with strong public-sector unions, tough gun laws, the few remaining conservatives relegated to the role of court jester (mainly because the William F. Buckley brand of conservative bailed for Florida decades ago), loads of mass transit, and it's even a place where Kennedys are still taken seriously even when they're spouting anti-vaxxer loonage.

So how come it ain't Camelot for all they spend?
 
2014-04-06 11:00:19 AM  
ZeroHedge.

LULZ!
 
2014-04-06 11:01:21 AM  
China shows the highest value not only among emerging economies but also when considering all the sample, inverting with the US the rank order given by the exports' share in nominal terms

Oh, nominal terms! Thems the important kind since the number is bigger with no reference for scale!
 
2014-04-06 11:14:09 AM  
Obviously the US needs to become a Communist country with a demand economy so that we can compete with China.
 
2014-04-06 11:18:56 AM  

Gulper Eel: the_vegetarian_cannibal: The "wealth" is insanely unequally distributed and there is a humongous rich-poor gap, especially between the urban and rural populations.

You know what states have the most inequality of wealth? Hint: not Texas. They're third. New York and Connecticut are 1-2 and they have the same issue - on paper, they should be the anti-Texas and a progressives' paradise. Immense social programs, (in NY) by far the nation's largest Medicaid budget, massive spending on education, high taxes on the rich, high taxes on fossil fuels, (hell, high taxes on everybody and everything), a well-compensated public sector with strong public-sector unions, tough gun laws, the few remaining conservatives relegated to the role of court jester (mainly because the William F. Buckley brand of conservative bailed for Florida decades ago), loads of mass transit, and it's even a place where Kennedys are still taken seriously even when they're spouting anti-vaxxer loonage.

So how come it ain't Camelot for all they spend?


Don't worry, some day you will understand how cities work.

Any state with a city like New York is going to attract enough of the 1% to have a big wealth inequality. Take a look at the median income to find out how the plebs are doing, then think about why the wealthiest are in a location. Those are the important factors.

But good work blaming mass transit and welfare I guess.
 
2014-04-06 11:23:01 AM  

theknuckler_33: ZeroHedge.

LULZ!


How long have they had their own tag? This bodes ill, methinks.
 
2014-04-06 11:32:52 AM  

itcamefromschenectady: My car was made in Canada.


i drive an honest to God American car. one driven by police and taxi companies across the good old USA. a 2004 crown vic.
 
2014-04-06 11:39:20 AM  

cameroncrazy1984: Jim_Callahan: Yeah, I think any ranking of economic power that places Russia ahead of the US can be very, very safely disregarded as the fever-dreams of a drug addict trying to cold-turkey Heroin.

To have any greater disconnect from reality you'd have to literally have a clinical diagnosis of schizophrenia going on.

What was your first clue? Mine was "ZeroHedge"


I saw "ZeroHedge" and I was all like, "Stopped reading there!"
 
2014-04-06 11:40:02 AM  

BigBurrito: CCTV offices. Architect Rem Koolhaas (OMA), who also did the Seattle Public Library, and many other intersting buildings.


One of the current starchitects. (not my word)


Looks like someone gave his four year old a box of legos, scaled up the design and coated it with mirrors.
 
2014-04-06 11:44:04 AM  
Looks like some article's author is really really hoping to see America stumble and fall.
 
2014-04-06 11:44:49 AM  
This message brought to you from the blog that doesn't understand how the census works.
 
2014-04-06 11:46:22 AM  

Monkeyhouse Zendo: BigBurrito: CCTV offices. Architect Rem Koolhaas (OMA), who also did the Seattle Public Library, and many other intersting buildings.


One of the current starchitects. (not my word)

Looks like someone gave his four year old a box of legos, scaled up the design and coated it with mirrors.


It's actually a fairly amazing library - the design is functional yet whimsical, and it brings an interesting flavor to the neighborhood. The only problem with the place is that it's easy to find your way to the top floor - just take the escalator all the way up - but the only elevator which will get you back down is hidden in an odd corner. There are people lost on the top floor that have been up there for years.
 
2014-04-06 11:46:47 AM  

fusillade762: We could beat them if we weren't such pussies.

[cdn.theatlanticcities.com image 850x564]

C'mon, slap a handkerchief over your face and get back to work!


You know, there are tons of brand-new but totally empty cities spread out all over China (Google up "China's Ghost Cities"). Why can't anyone be allowed to move to any of them?

www.wnd.com
 
2014-04-06 11:54:21 AM  
Here's a good question :

Take this "power index"

multiply it by the GDP

Then divide it by the Population ...

I wonder how that chart would look...

Now for each nation, take that value, and locate it on its own prosperity curve ... Let's look at figures above and below that on the same chart for each nation ...

hm... I wonder what that would look like
 
2014-04-06 12:01:19 PM  

rubi_con_man: Here's a good question :

Take this "power index"

multiply it by the GDP

Then divide it by the Population ...

I wonder how that chart would look...

Now for each nation, take that value, and locate it on its own prosperity curve ... Let's look at figures above and below that on the same chart for each nation ...

hm... I wonder what that would look like


fc01.deviantart.net
 
2014-04-06 12:05:15 PM  

capn' fun: In broad strokes, US productivity is maxed out, and our consumer driven economy is faltering on consumers whose earnings are flat or falling, and who can't or won't borrow any further. R&D is stymied by the incredible cost of graduate and PhD level degrees. And trillions in capital is sitting on the sidelines held by a shrinking number of individuals (has gone from the "1%" now to then".5%"). Then Chinese haven't gotten substantially "better" than the US-we're just tuning our own economy and they're passing us on the way down.


Most PhD programs are free. The bigger issue affecting medical science is the decline in NIH funding. Historically a PhD student would do a postdoctoral fellowship after graduating, and then apply for faculty positions after that. If things didn't work out they could go to the pharmaceutical industry. The incentive to get a PhD was high because there was a payoff at the end regardless of your path.

Now that's not the case. Faculty positions are extremely scarce to the point where only 1 in 6 postdocs will ever get a tenure track position. Furthermore, the pharmaceutical industry has been rapidly shedding R&D jobs. It's not that enough people aren't doing PhDs... it's that there's nowhere to go when they graduate. To make matters worse being an assistant professor is becoming increasingly miserable. The stress is unbelievably high to publish and secure grant funding, so the incentive to be overworked and underpaid for your PhD and postdoc to become an assistant professor is minimal.

The US still has the best scientific infrastructure of any nation, but you can't expect R&D to stay on top by cutting funding and treating scientists like livestock.

/end rant
 
2014-04-06 12:06:39 PM  

BeesNuts: DRTFA But when looking at any economic data from China I immediately subtract about 50% of the trade numbers from the total.  I'm sorry, but shipping from a manufacturing plant in Shen Zhen to an assembly plant in Hong Kong does not count as an import, an export, or an import/export.  If their trade factors into this assessment at all, take it with a grain of salt.


"One China Policy", except when it comes to calculating economic numbers to look better on the world stage, right?
 
2014-04-06 12:08:42 PM  

TV's Vinnie: fusillade762: We could beat them if we weren't such pussies.

[cdn.theatlanticcities.com image 850x564]

C'mon, slap a handkerchief over your face and get back to work!

You know, there are tons of brand-new but totally empty cities spread out all over China (Google up "China's Ghost Cities"). Why can't anyone be allowed to move to any of them?

[www.wnd.com image 800x600]


From what I've read a lot of the homes and condos in the ghost cities have been bought up by real estate speculators.  Maybe they're expecting a huge population boom in the near future, or people to suddenly move out of the cities quickly, but it doesn't strike me as a particularly good investment.
 
2014-04-06 12:12:59 PM  

bkisfancy: capn' fun: In broad strokes, US productivity is maxed out, and our consumer driven economy is faltering on consumers whose earnings are flat or falling, and who can't or won't borrow any further. R&D is stymied by the incredible cost of graduate and PhD level degrees. And trillions in capital is sitting on the sidelines held by a shrinking number of individuals (has gone from the "1%" now to then".5%"). Then Chinese haven't gotten substantially "better" than the US-we're just tuning our own economy and they're passing us on the way down.

Most PhD programs are free.


As someone once said, "if you're paying for your PhD, they didn't really want you there to begin with." And a lot of institutions are beginning to dump the PhD slots that aren't fully-funded. UVA went from 24 history grad slots to 12. A lot of institutions have pared back their history programs because, "there are too many [liberal arts] PhDs and it would be unfair to people who won't be able to get a job." Frankly, I found that to be rather obnoxious for reasons that are too extensive to go into here.
 
2014-04-06 12:21:57 PM  

Hobodeluxe: rev. dave: The US is not at the top because of the rising oligarchy.  The more power they have, the weaker we get.

bingo
those oligarchs are sending our money over there to build things to sell to us.


This. And stores like Walmart have the audacity to market themselves as American. People in the Midwest are proud to go Walmart, like it's all apple pies and trucks and American flags. They don't seem to realize that they're taking money out of their pocket and shipping it directly to China. You know, that country that violates human rights and practices Communism. Real freakin' American to support that.
 
2014-04-06 12:26:36 PM  
Good.  Now they can step up and police the world for awhile (obviously dnrtfa) and watch their people come home in caskets.
 
2014-04-06 12:27:20 PM  

capn' fun: In broad strokes, US productivity is maxed out, and our consumer driven economy is faltering on consumers whose earnings are flat or falling, and who can't or won't borrow any further. R&D is stymied by the incredible cost of graduate and PhD level degrees. And trillions in capital is sitting on the sidelines held by a shrinking number of individuals (has gone from the "1%" now to then".5%"). Then Chinese haven't gotten substantially "better" than the US-we're just tuning our own economy and they're passing us on the way down.


Productivity isn't maxxed out... motivation is maxxed out. For the last few decades, US workers became increasingly more productive only to see real wages fall. They don't believe there's a connection between personal productivity and personal gains (there isn't)...so at a societal level, they just don't give a crap about productivity any more. There is no more American Dream, they're not reaching for anything any more... they're just trying to get by.
 
2014-04-06 12:39:28 PM  
I'm surprised to read a zerohedge article that doesn't tell me to buy gold or prepare for the imminent market eximplosion from hypermegaflation.
 
2014-04-06 12:42:27 PM  

rev. dave: The US is not at the top because of the rising oligarchy.  The more power they have, the weaker we get.


strange how concentrating the income reduces spending.
strange how after 30 years of trickle down, morans still think it works
 
2014-04-06 12:44:45 PM  

firefly212: capn' fun: In broad strokes, US productivity is maxed out, and our consumer driven economy is faltering on consumers whose earnings are flat or falling, and who can't or won't borrow any further. R&D is stymied by the incredible cost of graduate and PhD level degrees. And trillions in capital is sitting on the sidelines held by a shrinking number of individuals (has gone from the "1%" now to then".5%"). Then Chinese haven't gotten substantially "better" than the US-we're just tuning our own economy and they're passing us on the way down.

Productivity isn't maxxed out... motivation is maxxed out. For the last few decades, US workers became increasingly more productive only to see real wages fall. They don't believe there's a connection between personal productivity and personal gains (there isn't)...so at a societal level, they just don't give a crap about productivity any more. There is no more American Dream, they're not reaching for anything any more... they're just trying to get by.


Depends on the dream.  If you're a greedy fark that has to have it all- then yes, the American dream will surely fail you.  If you've been frugal, have met realistic expectations, and kept your debt under control, the American dream is alive and well!

My kids are on their way to college soon, we'll downsize into a home that's paid off (from the sale of our current home), and we'll spend the next ten or so years with a mix of helping out the kids with their bills and saving toward our retirement.  American dream: well on track.
 
2014-04-06 12:52:18 PM  

namatad: rev. dave: The US is not at the top because of the rising oligarchy.  The more power they have, the weaker we get.

strange how concentrating the income reduces spending.
strange how after 30 years of trickle down, morans still think it works


Assuming the company is investing in itself (from the investments of the wealthy and profits)- the company would be taking on more employees.  So yes, an example where trickle down works.  If you define it as the wealthy being required to purchase more goods and employing more help around the home?  Trickle down would be an utter failure.
 
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