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(NBC News)   Did we say 18 missing people? We meant 176....I guess we shouldn't have had the Prime Minister of Malaysia do our press release   (nbcnews.com) divider line 62
    More: Scary, Prime Minister of Malaysia  
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6313 clicks; posted to Main » on 25 Mar 2014 at 5:01 AM (25 weeks ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2014-03-25 01:32:45 PM
Yeah, lots hidden in tree cover. It was a weekend so folks were at home. There was at least one work crew in the area, plus random cars on the highway that got hit.

And that's not "possible death toll" you're looking at, it's "persons reported missing". Those are two pretty different numbers and every article says that the list includes many probable duplicates.
 
2014-03-25 01:36:22 PM

JoieD'Zen: Surool: cretinbob: calbert: 18 subby?

try 108.... then adjusted to 176.
It was 18 when the slide occured. Today it became 108, then 176.

read moar

That typo only exists in that one article. Every news source I've seen has always said 108. Looks to me one person missed the zero while typing up the information.

That's 15 miles from my house, and I've been keeping up with the rescue efforts from day 1.

Wow. What can you tell us from where you are?
I'm wondering if today's rain is going to make any difference.


It isn't raining hard here right now, but it always makes a difference. None of that mud will have really settled down after only a couple of days, and it's supposed to keep raining through the weekend.

Last week I was showing my daughter how high the Snohomish River was when we drove by, so I assume the torrential rain we had 1.5-2 weeks ago must have really saturated the ground.
 
2014-03-25 01:40:54 PM

LazyMedia: I can't figure how that many people lived in the path of the mudslide. What's left looks like farm country, like there'd have been 8-10 houses, tops, in the way.

[media3.s-nbcnews.com image 850x554]

This map shows the landslide area (purple) and the red boxes are properties with homes on the land (37) - orange are simply parcels with structures (46), based on the county permitting department:
vortex.accuweather.com
 
2014-03-25 01:54:09 PM

MelGoesOnTour: Surool: That's 15 miles from my house, and I've been keeping up with the rescue efforts from day 1.

Can you answer a few things before everyone (me included) starts making uninformed comments? For example, I am wondering how the possible death toll can be so high when to me, at least, the affected area didn't look to be very inhabited. Granted, not much can be seen from Google Maps and I suspect tree-cover might be why...but I sure hope the estimate is overblown somehow.


I've only ever headed out that way one time, but when you drive that main road, most of what you see is trees. I didn't know there was that many houses around that area either, but a hillside overlooking the Stillaguamish River would normally be a beautiful view if you were looking for a place to build a house. Also, a whole square mile of earth moved. You're only need to be looking looking at 35 or 45 houses in a whole square mile to cause this kind of life loss.

I really don't have much more information than you see on the internet (other than I've driven out there before). I was kind of thrown when that I-5 bridge collapsed a few days after I drove my daughter out to Deception Pass (taking us over that same bridge). At least that didn't have a death toll. This time the local grocery stores seemed to be a bit quieter after the event. I hope they find more survivors, but that is getting to be unlikely now.
 
2014-03-25 02:01:24 PM
Thinking that there's a secondary, though presumably well-foreseen, disaster that will happen downstream, when the dammed-up river breaches the mudflow.    In the WSDOT Flickr pics, that was starting to happen... has that scenario played itself out yet?  I'm sure everyone was evacuated, but it is not going to be nice for property, structures, or bridges downstream.
 
2014-03-25 02:04:11 PM

Surool: MelGoesOnTour: Surool: That's 15 miles from my house, and I've been keeping up with the rescue efforts from day 1.

Can you answer a few things before everyone (me included) starts making uninformed comments? For example, I am wondering how the possible death toll can be so high when to me, at least, the affected area didn't look to be very inhabited. Granted, not much can be seen from Google Maps and I suspect tree-cover might be why...but I sure hope the estimate is overblown somehow.

I've only ever headed out that way one time, but when you drive that main road, most of what you see is trees. I didn't know there was that many houses around that area either, but a hillside overlooking the Stillaguamish River would normally be a beautiful view if you were looking for a place to build a house. Also, a whole square mile of earth moved. You're only need to be looking looking at 35 or 45 houses in a whole square mile to cause this kind of life loss.

I really don't have much more information than you see on the internet (other than I've driven out there before). I was kind of thrown when that I-5 bridge collapsed a few days after I drove my daughter out to Deception Pass (taking us over that same bridge). At least that didn't have a death toll. This time the local grocery stores seemed to be a bit quieter after the event. I hope they find more survivors, but that is getting to be unlikely now.


Thanks for the info. I am only now grasping the enormity of the situation.
 
2014-03-25 02:31:03 PM
Speaking of how saturated the ground is/was, here's Cliff Mass's take on it:

http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2014/03/the-meteorological-background- fo r.html

TL;DR the North Cascades are at more than 300% of normal rainfall for the month.
 
2014-03-25 02:35:41 PM

MelGoesOnTour: Thanks for the info. I am only now grasping the enormity of the situation.


I think most people are in the same place. This story isn't getting the attention it normally wood (I assume because of the international stories), but it is a pretty big deal.

A Facebook friend had some more stories posted, and that parcel map a few posts up are pretty telling. It looks like many of those places went up after I'd driven through there, so I wouldn't have seen them anyway.
 
2014-03-25 02:36:58 PM

jimmythefly: Speaking of how saturated the ground is/was, here's Cliff Mass's take on it:

http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2014/03/the-meteorological-background- fo r.html

TL;DR the North Cascades are at more than 300% of normal rainfall for the month.


We hit average March rainfall around here in the first week of the month.
 
2014-03-25 02:46:20 PM
Some new photographic evidence points to a possible culprit in this mudslide:

img.fark.net

ASLAN!

/damn shifty-eyed cat
//srsly, terrible situation... didn't anyone have a clue as to the dangers of that area, especially with all the other slides that have occurred there?
 
2014-03-25 04:19:56 PM

Surool: cretinbob: calbert: 18 subby?

try 108.... then adjusted to 176.
It was 18 when the slide occured. Today it became 108, then 176.

read moar

That typo only exists in that one article. Every news source I've seen has always said 108. Looks to me one person missed the zero while typing up the information.

That's 15 miles from my house, and I've been keeping up with the rescue efforts from day 1.


No it doesn't. Go back to the 23rd and read the original articles. I picked that one at random by googling "washington landslide" and then clicking on "news"


http://rt.com/usa/landslide-washington-dead-injured-649/

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/rescuers-comb-debris-washin gt on-mudslide-kills-article-1.1730994

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/24/us/washington-mudslide.html

Here, they updated the article, but not the video caption or the video itself.

http://www.wzzm13.com/story/news/nation-now/2014/03/23/mudslide-wash in gton-disaster/6801847/

Of course all the major outlets have changed from 18 to whatever the the latest number is


Anyway, this pic

media1.s-nbcnews.com

really shows the extent of the slump. That's a lot bigger tha the purple area

vortex.accuweather.com

Possible and probable, that there has been more movement though

The "previous slide" is a cliff face and the "cracks" are a creek. They are completely obliterated and were pretty small features comparatively. The scour of the creek and the river are most likely the culprits with ground saturation playing a minor, though important, role.

That's a lot of volcanis ash
 
2014-03-25 06:58:39 PM

cretinbob: No it doesn't. Go back to the 23rd and read the original articles. I picked that one at random by googling "washington landslide" and then clicking on "news"


My guess is the "national" news didn't bother to update their numbers for a few days, but you can't tell me that I've seen any numbers other than 14 dead/108 missing before today.
 
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