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(NBC News)   Did we say 18 missing people? We meant 176....I guess we shouldn't have had the Prime Minister of Malaysia do our press release   (nbcnews.com ) divider line
    More: Scary, Prime Minister of Malaysia  
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6332 clicks; posted to Main » on 25 Mar 2014 at 5:01 AM (2 years ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2014-03-25 12:04:45 AM  
18 subby?

try 108.... then adjusted to 176.
 
2014-03-25 12:32:59 AM  
And what has become of Omarion?

/pray
//pray hard
///pray often
 
2014-03-25 01:17:23 AM  
176 reports of missing persons is not the same as 176 missing persons.
 
2014-03-25 03:55:50 AM  

calbert: 18 subby?

try 108.... then adjusted to 176.

It was 18 when the slide occured. Today it became 108, then 176.

read moar
 
2014-03-25 05:03:41 AM  
It's an f'ed up situation all round.
 
2014-03-25 05:07:39 AM  
That is a soft number; it is intentionally high with the express intention of being revised down.  It includes both real full names and reports of "hey, that guy down the street...I think his name is Joe or Jeff or something...I haven't seen him today..."   At least that's how NPR's reporter on the scene described it yesterday when I was driving to work.
 
2014-03-25 05:13:33 AM  
i.imgur.com
 
2014-03-25 05:43:36 AM  
www.welovetheiraqiinformationminister.com
 
2014-03-25 05:44:44 AM  
Damn Prime Rib of Propecia.
 
2014-03-25 05:50:51 AM  

CyberDave: 176 reports of missing persons is not the same as 176 missing persons.


176 people are REALLY concerned about one guy. The rest? Meh.
 
2014-03-25 06:00:10 AM  
I'm still trying to figure out why those new homes were built in that location. You can tell there was a landslide in the past in that spot.  The hill was sunken and the river bank stood out. Hardly any homes to the left or right. Seems weird.

Also, you can tell an area to the east of it is about to go too. Cracks and lack of tree growth.  Looks like some homes are built right below that one.
 
2014-03-25 06:19:03 AM  

DiRF: [i.imgur.com image 551x400]


heh I was just thiking of that
 
2014-03-25 06:23:57 AM  
Hopefully this number of "missing" will go down dramatically, as more people contact their friends and families. It's hard to tell from that GPS picture, but there doesn't appear to be that many homes in the area unless some are concealed by the trees.
 
2014-03-25 06:44:58 AM  
We better hope this mudslide didn't go through any cemeteries, or the body count could just keep going up.
 
2014-03-25 06:57:44 AM  
State officials said geologist from several agencies were on the scene to monitor the hillside, but the slide area remained unsafe for recovery work before beginning again.

Oh, NOW these motha farka's want to listen to scientists. Where's your god now?
 
2014-03-25 07:27:22 AM  
Maybe it was written by his stand-in

img.fark.net
 
2014-03-25 07:39:49 AM  

cc_rider: Hopefully this number of "missing" will go down dramatically, as more people contact their friends and families. It's hard to tell from that GPS picture, but there doesn't appear to be that many homes in the area unless some are concealed by the trees.


It was actually a pretty large area, covering most of the town, which only has a pop of a little over 200.
 
2014-03-25 08:07:31 AM  
They really need to get a better reporting system for that area's emergency management.

Start out slow... like getting a piece of paper and a pencil.   Work from there.
 
2014-03-25 08:20:03 AM  

Theory Of Null: I'm still trying to figure out why those new homes were built in that location. You can tell there was a landslide in the past in that spot.  The hill was sunken and the river bank stood out. Hardly any homes to the left or right. Seems weird.

Also, you can tell an area to the east of it is about to go too. Cracks and lack of tree growth.  Looks like some homes are built right below that one.


Eh, people rebuild in flood zones and hurricane surge zones all the time.

This DOES seem like a pretty specific, relatively high-risk zone to build in, though.  Any geologists want to weigh in?
 
2014-03-25 08:33:40 AM  

PunGent: Theory Of Null: I'm still trying to figure out why those new homes were built in that location. You can tell there was a landslide in the past in that spot.  The hill was sunken and the river bank stood out. Hardly any homes to the left or right. Seems weird.

Also, you can tell an area to the east of it is about to go too. Cracks and lack of tree growth.  Looks like some homes are built right below that one.

Eh, people rebuild in flood zones and hurricane surge zones all the time.

This DOES seem like a pretty specific, relatively high-risk zone to build in, though.  Any geologists want to weigh in?


172.

/not really a geologist
 
2014-03-25 08:54:29 AM  

PunGent: Theory Of Null: I'm still trying to figure out why those new homes were built in that location. You can tell there was a landslide in the past in that spot.  The hill was sunken and the river bank stood out. Hardly any homes to the left or right. Seems weird.

Also, you can tell an area to the east of it is about to go too. Cracks and lack of tree growth.  Looks like some homes are built right below that one.

Eh, people rebuild in flood zones and hurricane surge zones all the time.

This DOES seem like a pretty specific, relatively high-risk zone to build in, though.  Any geologists want to weigh in?


I'm not saying I'm an expert Geologist....  but if a mountain fell on your house...it probably wasn't a good place to build.
 
2014-03-25 09:00:42 AM  

PunGent: Theory Of Null: I'm still trying to figure out why those new homes were built in that location. You can tell there was a landslide in the past in that spot.  The hill was sunken and the river bank stood out. Hardly any homes to the left or right. Seems weird.

Also, you can tell an area to the east of it is about to go too. Cracks and lack of tree growth.  Looks like some homes are built right below that one.

Eh, people rebuild in flood zones and hurricane surge zones all the time.

This DOES seem like a pretty specific, relatively high-risk zone to build in, though.  Any geologists want to weigh in?


Geologist here. Mass wasting is scary yo. Looking at the topo in the NBC article, I also wouldn't trust the bluff on the other side of the river directly opposite the big slide. What are the contour intervals? Would of course have to see what the substrate is made of, but the tree cover suggests it's not bedrock.

It looks like I can see scars from 2 previous slides in that photo.
 
2014-03-25 09:09:56 AM  

Hermione_Granger: State officials said geologist from several agencies were on the scene to monitor the hillside, but the slide area remained unsafe for recovery work before beginning again.

Oh, NOW these motha farka's want to listen to scientists. Where's your god now?


What the fark are you on about? Our Derpheads would be Democrats in most states.
 
2014-03-25 09:25:18 AM  

Dinodork: PunGent: Theory Of Null: I'm still trying to figure out why those new homes were built in that location. You can tell there was a landslide in the past in that spot.  The hill was sunken and the river bank stood out. Hardly any homes to the left or right. Seems weird.

Also, you can tell an area to the east of it is about to go too. Cracks and lack of tree growth.  Looks like some homes are built right below that one.

Eh, people rebuild in flood zones and hurricane surge zones all the time.

This DOES seem like a pretty specific, relatively high-risk zone to build in, though.  Any geologists want to weigh in?

Geologist here. Mass wasting is scary yo. Looking at the topo in the NBC article, I also wouldn't trust the bluff on the other side of the river directly opposite the big slide. What are the contour intervals? Would of course have to see what the substrate is made of, but the tree cover suggests it's not bedrock.

It looks like I can see scars from 2 previous slides in that photo.


New houses are being built all long the Cascades in or near several of the small towns. This area experiences frequent small eq's, something that many are unaware of.
I am not  geologist but I wouldn't buy any of them.
Beautiful area.
 
2014-03-25 09:30:35 AM  

PunGent: Theory Of Null: I'm still trying to figure out why those new homes were built in that location. You can tell there was a landslide in the past in that spot.  The hill was sunken and the river bank stood out. Hardly any homes to the left or right. Seems weird.

Also, you can tell an area to the east of it is about to go too. Cracks and lack of tree growth.  Looks like some homes are built right below that one.

Eh, people rebuild in flood zones and hurricane surge zones all the time.

This DOES seem like a pretty specific, relatively high-risk zone to build in, though.  Any geologists want to weigh in?


Darwin Development Company. LLC
 
2014-03-25 09:37:21 AM  

fat boy: PunGent: Theory Of Null: I'm still trying to figure out why those new homes were built in that location. You can tell there was a landslide in the past in that spot.  The hill was sunken and the river bank stood out. Hardly any homes to the left or right. Seems weird.

Also, you can tell an area to the east of it is about to go too. Cracks and lack of tree growth.  Looks like some homes are built right below that one.

Eh, people rebuild in flood zones and hurricane surge zones all the time.

This DOES seem like a pretty specific, relatively high-risk zone to build in, though.  Any geologists want to weigh in?

Darwin Development Company. LLC


Darwin, and Isaac Newton is the subcontractor...
 
2014-03-25 09:50:48 AM  
...some crews had been pulled off the disaster site in Oso, Wash., because of the danger.

www.disneydreaming.com

Yeah, I wouldn't trust that dimwitted f*ck either.  Just look at those eyes...

/psycho eyes
 
2014-03-25 09:54:49 AM  

dbirchall: We better hope this mudslide didn't go through any cemeteries, or the body count could just keep going up.


Well, it is now.
 
2014-03-25 10:02:25 AM  
The other thread just got hidden, but some people were talking about the pictures not showing any signs of human habitation.  Here's a different angle:

i.imgur.com
 
2014-03-25 10:03:13 AM  
I can't figure how that many people lived in the path of the mudslide. What's left looks like farm country, like there'd have been 8-10 houses, tops, in the way.

media3.s-nbcnews.com
 
2014-03-25 10:05:48 AM  
Amazing how little press coverage this is getting.  176 people missing?!  That's pretty farking severe.
 
2014-03-25 10:12:00 AM  

ThrillaManilla: The other thread just got hidden, but some people were talking about the pictures not showing any signs of human habitation.  Here's a different angle:

[i.imgur.com image 850x554]


Thanks for the update. I was wondering why the other thread vanished.
 
2014-03-25 10:13:35 AM  
I just looked at Oso, Washington, ob Google Maps and to me it doesn't look like there are many homes there to start with. I hope the 176 (or whatever) figure is just a typo.
 
2014-03-25 10:16:28 AM  

MelGoesOnTour: I just looked at Oso, Washington, ob Google Maps and to me it doesn't look like there are many homes there to start with. I hope the 176 (or whatever) figure is just a typo.


I don't think it could be a typo, but HOPEFULLY there are a lot of people 'unaccounted for' who will turn up soon.
 
2014-03-25 10:17:06 AM  

nekom: Amazing how little press coverage this is getting.  176 people missing?!  That's pretty farking severe.


The Daily Mail has some decent coverage. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2587893/Hopes-fade-Washington - mudslide-survivors-bodies-pulled-debris-raising-fears-death-toll-doubl e.html

Obama just declared it a disaster and the Nat'l Guard is coming in.
 
2014-03-25 10:19:41 AM  

puffy999: [www.welovetheiraqiinformationminister.com image 300x225]


My first thought.
 
2014-03-25 10:22:20 AM  
JoieD'Zen:
The Daily Mail has some decent coverage. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2587893/Hopes-fade-Washington - mudslide-survivors-bodies-pulled-debris-raising-fears-death-toll-doubl e.html

From that:
Fears that many students of Post Middle School in Arlington could be among the victims

:( Not good.  Not good at all.
 
2014-03-25 10:44:29 AM  
MODS:Can you guys put this higher up on the Main list so we don't have to search too hard for it as it gets buried over the course of the day?  *

/*  No pun. Seriously. I was about to hit "add comment" when I saw what I did there. I left it in place anyway.
 
2014-03-25 10:49:02 AM  
Oso is just a wide spot in the road. When I went through there last summer, the only store/gas station was closed again. I am familiar with the area. There wouldn't be a 176 people there in the slide area even during the 4th of July weekend.
 
2014-03-25 11:05:38 AM  

wiseolddude: Oso is just a wide spot in the road. When I went through there last summer, the only store/gas station was closed again. I am familiar with the area. There wouldn't be a 176 people there in the slide area even during the 4th of July weekend.


That's exactly what I was thinking. There must be something missing from this story. The 100+ missing people figure doesn't make any sense to me. On top of that, when the other article said many students of a middle school in Arlington could be victims---and I hope that's incorrect---well, Arlington is pretty far from Oso. And the slide area of Oso, pre-slide, doesn't look to have many houses nearby.
 
2014-03-25 11:08:41 AM  
Oso has a population of under 200. No way the claim of nearly that many people missing can be true. Unless, of course, the whole town was covered.
 
2014-03-25 11:13:20 AM  

nekom: JoieD'Zen:
The Daily Mail has some decent coverage. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2587893/Hopes-fade-Washington - mudslide-survivors-bodies-pulled-debris-raising-fears-death-toll-doubl e.html

From that:
Fears that many students of Post Middle School in Arlington could be among the victims

:( Not good.  Not good at all.


Note:  The school itself is not in the mudslide area.

As for the numbers, I count at least 30 houses in the slide area.  So yeah, 176 is too high, but it still could be a bad final number.
 
2014-03-25 11:41:14 AM  

JoieD'Zen: Obama just declared it a disaster and the Nat'l Guard is coming in.


... and by doing that, we are once again distracted from what story that rhymes with ben-wasabi?
 
2014-03-25 12:25:39 PM  
Cool interactive slider  pic/diagram from the times here:
http://seattletimes.com/html/localnews/2023215066_mudslidemondayxml. ht ml

WSDOT's flickr set with some great aerial photos here:
https://www.flickr.com/photos/wsdot/sets/72157642820245364
 
2014-03-25 12:25:51 PM  
3.bp.blogspot.com

"It's Washington's 911!"
 
2014-03-25 12:31:11 PM  
farm8.staticflickr.com
From some random geology student (or something) flickr. Captioned:

"One of our old field project areas highlighted in red, with a big, ancient failure around it in yellow. An approximation of the recent Oso slide is outlined in green, with the guess being made by outlining a previous failure. A terrifyingly huge, ancient, polygenetic failure is shown in blue. Another old slide outlined in magenta, and the ancient headscarp above the Oso slide is in bright yellow.

This is kind of an unfortunate place for rivers, residences, and infrastructure.

Sorry about butchering the outlines with trackpad Microsoft Paint."
 
2014-03-25 12:51:32 PM  

jimmythefly: [farm8.staticflickr.com image 850x554]
From some random geology student (or something) flickr. Captioned:

"One of our old field project areas highlighted in red, with a big, ancient failure around it in yellow. An approximation of the recent Oso slide is outlined in green, with the guess being made by outlining a previous failure. A terrifyingly huge, ancient, polygenetic failure is shown in blue. Another old slide outlined in magenta, and the ancient headscarp above the Oso slide is in bright yellow.

This is kind of an unfortunate place for rivers, residences, and infrastructure.

Sorry about butchering the outlines with trackpad Microsoft Paint."


See also -http://www.pnsn.org/earthquakes/recent

Beautiful area, tragic event.
 
2014-03-25 01:12:45 PM  

cretinbob: calbert: 18 subby?

try 108.... then adjusted to 176.
It was 18 when the slide occured. Today it became 108, then 176.

read moar


That typo only exists in that one article. Every news source I've seen has always said 108. Looks to me one person missed the zero while typing up the information.

That's 15 miles from my house, and I've been keeping up with the rescue efforts from day 1.
 
2014-03-25 01:18:00 PM  

Surool: cretinbob: calbert: 18 subby?

try 108.... then adjusted to 176.
It was 18 when the slide occured. Today it became 108, then 176.

read moar

That typo only exists in that one article. Every news source I've seen has always said 108. Looks to me one person missed the zero while typing up the information.

That's 15 miles from my house, and I've been keeping up with the rescue efforts from day 1.


Wow. What can you tell us from where you are?
I'm wondering if today's rain is going to make any difference.
 
2014-03-25 01:28:17 PM  

Surool: That's 15 miles from my house, and I've been keeping up with the rescue efforts from day 1.


Can you answer a few things before everyone (me included) starts making uninformed comments? For example, I am wondering how the possible death toll can be so high when to me, at least, the affected area didn't look to be very inhabited. Granted, not much can be seen from Google Maps and I suspect tree-cover might be why...but I sure hope the estimate is overblown somehow.
 
2014-03-25 01:32:45 PM  
Yeah, lots hidden in tree cover. It was a weekend so folks were at home. There was at least one work crew in the area, plus random cars on the highway that got hit.

And that's not "possible death toll" you're looking at, it's "persons reported missing". Those are two pretty different numbers and every article says that the list includes many probable duplicates.
 
2014-03-25 01:36:22 PM  

JoieD'Zen: Surool: cretinbob: calbert: 18 subby?

try 108.... then adjusted to 176.
It was 18 when the slide occured. Today it became 108, then 176.

read moar

That typo only exists in that one article. Every news source I've seen has always said 108. Looks to me one person missed the zero while typing up the information.

That's 15 miles from my house, and I've been keeping up with the rescue efforts from day 1.

Wow. What can you tell us from where you are?
I'm wondering if today's rain is going to make any difference.


It isn't raining hard here right now, but it always makes a difference. None of that mud will have really settled down after only a couple of days, and it's supposed to keep raining through the weekend.

Last week I was showing my daughter how high the Snohomish River was when we drove by, so I assume the torrential rain we had 1.5-2 weeks ago must have really saturated the ground.
 
2014-03-25 01:40:54 PM  

LazyMedia: I can't figure how that many people lived in the path of the mudslide. What's left looks like farm country, like there'd have been 8-10 houses, tops, in the way.

[media3.s-nbcnews.com image 850x554]

This map shows the landslide area (purple) and the red boxes are properties with homes on the land (37) - orange are simply parcels with structures (46), based on the county permitting department:
vortex.accuweather.com
 
2014-03-25 01:54:09 PM  

MelGoesOnTour: Surool: That's 15 miles from my house, and I've been keeping up with the rescue efforts from day 1.

Can you answer a few things before everyone (me included) starts making uninformed comments? For example, I am wondering how the possible death toll can be so high when to me, at least, the affected area didn't look to be very inhabited. Granted, not much can be seen from Google Maps and I suspect tree-cover might be why...but I sure hope the estimate is overblown somehow.


I've only ever headed out that way one time, but when you drive that main road, most of what you see is trees. I didn't know there was that many houses around that area either, but a hillside overlooking the Stillaguamish River would normally be a beautiful view if you were looking for a place to build a house. Also, a whole square mile of earth moved. You're only need to be looking looking at 35 or 45 houses in a whole square mile to cause this kind of life loss.

I really don't have much more information than you see on the internet (other than I've driven out there before). I was kind of thrown when that I-5 bridge collapsed a few days after I drove my daughter out to Deception Pass (taking us over that same bridge). At least that didn't have a death toll. This time the local grocery stores seemed to be a bit quieter after the event. I hope they find more survivors, but that is getting to be unlikely now.
 
2014-03-25 02:01:24 PM  
Thinking that there's a secondary, though presumably well-foreseen, disaster that will happen downstream, when the dammed-up river breaches the mudflow.    In the WSDOT Flickr pics, that was starting to happen... has that scenario played itself out yet?  I'm sure everyone was evacuated, but it is not going to be nice for property, structures, or bridges downstream.
 
2014-03-25 02:04:11 PM  

Surool: MelGoesOnTour: Surool: That's 15 miles from my house, and I've been keeping up with the rescue efforts from day 1.

Can you answer a few things before everyone (me included) starts making uninformed comments? For example, I am wondering how the possible death toll can be so high when to me, at least, the affected area didn't look to be very inhabited. Granted, not much can be seen from Google Maps and I suspect tree-cover might be why...but I sure hope the estimate is overblown somehow.

I've only ever headed out that way one time, but when you drive that main road, most of what you see is trees. I didn't know there was that many houses around that area either, but a hillside overlooking the Stillaguamish River would normally be a beautiful view if you were looking for a place to build a house. Also, a whole square mile of earth moved. You're only need to be looking looking at 35 or 45 houses in a whole square mile to cause this kind of life loss.

I really don't have much more information than you see on the internet (other than I've driven out there before). I was kind of thrown when that I-5 bridge collapsed a few days after I drove my daughter out to Deception Pass (taking us over that same bridge). At least that didn't have a death toll. This time the local grocery stores seemed to be a bit quieter after the event. I hope they find more survivors, but that is getting to be unlikely now.


Thanks for the info. I am only now grasping the enormity of the situation.
 
2014-03-25 02:31:03 PM  
Speaking of how saturated the ground is/was, here's Cliff Mass's take on it:

http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2014/03/the-meteorological-background- fo r.html

TL;DR the North Cascades are at more than 300% of normal rainfall for the month.
 
2014-03-25 02:35:41 PM  

MelGoesOnTour: Thanks for the info. I am only now grasping the enormity of the situation.


I think most people are in the same place. This story isn't getting the attention it normally wood (I assume because of the international stories), but it is a pretty big deal.

A Facebook friend had some more stories posted, and that parcel map a few posts up are pretty telling. It looks like many of those places went up after I'd driven through there, so I wouldn't have seen them anyway.
 
2014-03-25 02:36:58 PM  

jimmythefly: Speaking of how saturated the ground is/was, here's Cliff Mass's take on it:

http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2014/03/the-meteorological-background- fo r.html

TL;DR the North Cascades are at more than 300% of normal rainfall for the month.


We hit average March rainfall around here in the first week of the month.
 
2014-03-25 02:46:20 PM  
Some new photographic evidence points to a possible culprit in this mudslide:

img.fark.net

ASLAN!

/damn shifty-eyed cat
//srsly, terrible situation... didn't anyone have a clue as to the dangers of that area, especially with all the other slides that have occurred there?
 
2014-03-25 04:19:56 PM  

Surool: cretinbob: calbert: 18 subby?

try 108.... then adjusted to 176.
It was 18 when the slide occured. Today it became 108, then 176.

read moar

That typo only exists in that one article. Every news source I've seen has always said 108. Looks to me one person missed the zero while typing up the information.

That's 15 miles from my house, and I've been keeping up with the rescue efforts from day 1.


No it doesn't. Go back to the 23rd and read the original articles. I picked that one at random by googling "washington landslide" and then clicking on "news"


http://rt.com/usa/landslide-washington-dead-injured-649/

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/rescuers-comb-debris-washin gt on-mudslide-kills-article-1.1730994

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/24/us/washington-mudslide.html

Here, they updated the article, but not the video caption or the video itself.

http://www.wzzm13.com/story/news/nation-now/2014/03/23/mudslide-wash in gton-disaster/6801847/

Of course all the major outlets have changed from 18 to whatever the the latest number is


Anyway, this pic

media1.s-nbcnews.com

really shows the extent of the slump. That's a lot bigger tha the purple area

vortex.accuweather.com

Possible and probable, that there has been more movement though

The "previous slide" is a cliff face and the "cracks" are a creek. They are completely obliterated and were pretty small features comparatively. The scour of the creek and the river are most likely the culprits with ground saturation playing a minor, though important, role.

That's a lot of volcanis ash
 
2014-03-25 06:58:39 PM  

cretinbob: No it doesn't. Go back to the 23rd and read the original articles. I picked that one at random by googling "washington landslide" and then clicking on "news"


My guess is the "national" news didn't bother to update their numbers for a few days, but you can't tell me that I've seen any numbers other than 14 dead/108 missing before today.
 
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