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(USA Today)   It took two hours for 83.7% of entrants in the Billion Dollar Bracket Challenge to lose their chance at $1 billion   (ftw.usatoday.com ) divider line
    More: Obvious, tournaments  
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1302 clicks; posted to Sports » on 21 Mar 2014 at 5:04 PM (2 years ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



55 Comments     (+0 »)
 
View Voting Results: Smartest and Funniest


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2014-03-21 03:37:11 PM  
Had Dayton but lost it on Harvard's win.  Not that I thought I'd manage anywhere close.
 
2014-03-21 03:50:24 PM  
And now that Duke lost, its probably close to 99%
 
2014-03-21 04:01:11 PM  
I have someone in my pool with a perfect bracket through now, but they have umass winning. Not looking good
 
2014-03-21 04:01:42 PM  

downstairs: And now that Duke lost, its probably close to 99%


Except Farkers, we all know Duke sucked...

(my bracket got smoked yesterday, but had Mercer over Duke)
 
2014-03-21 04:13:47 PM  
is anyone still alive in that?  can't see it, at work.
 
2014-03-21 04:14:16 PM  

sno man: downstairs: And now that Duke lost, its probably close to 99%

Except Farkers, we all know Duke sucked...

(my bracket got smoked yesterday, but had Mercer over Duke)


I came *this* close to having Duke out in today's game.  Ugh!
 
2014-03-21 04:18:26 PM  

SlothB77: is anyone still alive in that?  can't see it, at work.


According to this article, only three people who have perfect picks are left

http://dailycaller.com/2014/03/21/only-three-remain-in-buffets-billi on -dollar-march-madness-bracket/

After Duke University lost to Mercer University in a surprising upset Friday, there are only three people in the entire world left in Warren Buffet's billion dollar bracket challenge.
 
2014-03-21 04:22:24 PM  
Scratch that, no one is left.  Stanford's win FUBAR'd the remaining perfect brackets.
 
2014-03-21 04:26:20 PM  

WalkingCarpet: Scratch that, no one is left.  Stanford's win FUBAR'd the remaining perfect brackets.


Wow. Even nate Silver is done.
 
2014-03-21 05:11:27 PM  

downstairs: And now that Duke lost, its probably close to 99%


97.6% of all entrants had Duke beating Mercer. 16 perfect brackets remain.
 
2014-03-21 05:14:29 PM  
I made it all the way until Aaron Craft f*cked it up. It was a  good brief run.
 
2014-03-21 05:28:32 PM  

WalkingCarpet: Scratch that, no one is left.  Stanford's win FUBAR'd the remaining perfect brackets.


Yep, Buffet's billion is going nowhere.
 
2014-03-21 05:33:29 PM  
There's a reason why I didn't even bother to try; I'm pretty up to speed on how these things go.

Random brackets are overwhelmingly likely to fail*, so your best bet is to make an honest effort to predict the winners.  The seeding isn't perfect, but it does take a season's worth of data and some best-effort human guesses to minimize the chance of upsets.  Arguably, if you didn't pick any upsets at all you've got the "perfect" bracket, at least through the first round assuming the committee is infallible.  Which we know it isn't, but my point is, while you'll get close, you're invariably going to get screwed by the upsets because they do happen.

Granted this isn't a game where "the only winning move is to not play" (if you win you win ONE BILLION DOLLARSBUCKS), but basically if you spent any time at all on the bracket, and your time is worth at least minimum wage, about the only value you got out of the experience is some enjoyment.  Mind you there's nothing wrong with doing something for fun so anyone who got that much got more than me sitting on my smug ass here.  But I've never filled out a bracket in my life; I'd have done it for the money and I knew exactly what Buffet was getting at.

I'm sure he'd honor his promise if someone somehow did win, but in reality he has no intention of losing money on this.  This is just to make a point, and I already got the point.

*Most of them will have at least one 16 seed upsetting a 1 seed and that has yet to happen.
 
2014-03-21 05:35:33 PM  

WalkingCarpet: Scratch that, no one is left.  Stanford's win FUBAR'd the remaining perfect brackets.


This guy is still in. Maybe others, too (I haven't looked at all the leaders). Not for long, probably, but still...
 
2014-03-21 05:39:10 PM  

dragonchild: There's a reason why I didn't even bother to try; I'm pretty up to speed on how these things go.

Random brackets are overwhelmingly likely to fail*, so your best bet is to make an honest effort to predict the winners.  The seeding isn't perfect, but it does take a season's worth of data and some best-effort human guesses to minimize the chance of upsets.  Arguably, if you didn't pick any upsets at all you've got the "perfect" bracket, at least through the first round assuming the committee is infallible.  Which we know it isn't, but my point is, while you'll get close, you're invariably going to get screwed by the upsets because they do happen.

Granted this isn't a game where "the only winning move is to not play" (if you win you win ONE BILLION DOLLARSBUCKS), but basically if you spent any time at all on the bracket, and your time is worth at least minimum wage, about the only value you got out of the experience is some enjoyment.  Mind you there's nothing wrong with doing something for fun so anyone who got that much got more than me sitting on my smug ass here.  But I've never filled out a bracket in my life; I'd have done it for the money and I knew exactly what Buffet was getting at.

I'm sure he'd honor his promise if someone somehow did win, but in reality he has no intention of losing money on this.  This is just to make a point, and I already got the point.

*Most of them will have at least one 16 seed upsetting a 1 seed and that has yet to happen.


Here's why I tried: It took me 2 minutes and there was a minute possibility of me winning $1 billion because of it.

People breaking down the odds of winning and yadda yadda yadda are missing the point. It was a fun little exercise, and who doesn't like daydreaming about winning $1 billion? There has been way too much over-thinking about this.
 
2014-03-21 05:44:37 PM  

Uzzah: WalkingCarpet: Scratch that, no one is left.  Stanford's win FUBAR'd the remaining perfect brackets.

This guy is still in. Maybe others, too (I haven't looked at all the leaders). Not for long, probably, but still...


So their scoreboard thing isn't updating as quickly as some of us thought.
 
2014-03-21 05:51:18 PM  
Just quick looking-  there is at least half a dozen still perfect...

I only quick looked at the top 10...
 
2014-03-21 05:54:15 PM  

dragonchild: There's a reason why I didn't even bother to try; I'm pretty up to speed on how these things go.

Random brackets are overwhelmingly likely to fail*, so your best bet is to make an honest effort to predict the winners.  The seeding isn't perfect, but it does take a season's worth of data and some best-effort human guesses to minimize the chance of upsets.  Arguably, if you didn't pick any upsets at all you've got the "perfect" bracket, at least through the first round assuming the committee is infallible.  Which we know it isn't, but my point is, while you'll get close, you're invariably going to get screwed by the upsets because they do happen.

Granted this isn't a game where "the only winning move is to not play" (if you win you win ONE BILLION DOLLARSBUCKS), but basically if you spent any time at all on the bracket, and your time is worth at least minimum wage, about the only value you got out of the experience is some enjoyment.  Mind you there's nothing wrong with doing something for fun so anyone who got that much got more than me sitting on my smug ass here.  But I've never filled out a bracket in my life; I'd have done it for the money and I knew exactly what Buffet was getting at.

I'm sure he'd honor his promise if someone somehow did win, but in reality he has no intention of losing money on this.  This is just to make a point, and I already got the point.

*Most of them will have at least one 16 seed upsetting a 1 seed and that has yet to happen.


You got the enjoyment of the warm feeling thinking about winning and the hypothetical spending of the winnings in your mind.  That is worth the couple minutes it took to register and pick the teams.
 
2014-03-21 05:55:03 PM  
By my count, 11 brackets still perfect through 22 games.
 
2014-03-21 05:59:21 PM  

Slow To Return: By my count, 11 brackets still perfect through 22 games.


One of those perfect brackets forgot to pick the winner of the championship game...
 
2014-03-21 06:14:12 PM  

Uzzah: This guy is still in. Maybe others, too (I haven't looked at all the leaders). Not for long, probably, but still...


I love how they have a tiebreaker.  There's a one in like 700 million chance of picking the perfect bracket.
 
2014-03-21 06:20:45 PM  

downstairs: Uzzah: This guy is still in. Maybe others, too (I haven't looked at all the leaders). Not for long, probably, but still...

I love how they have a tiebreaker.  There's a one in like 700 million chance of picking the perfect bracket.


The tiebreaker can be used if there are two people with flawed brackets. If you have 2 brackets with  say 58 out of 63 correct picks with the same championship team pairing and choice. So it is considerably more likely than 700m to one.  Probably happens every year or every few years being used.
 
2014-03-21 06:21:49 PM  

dragonchild: There's a reason why I didn't even bother to try; I'm pretty up to speed on how these things go.

Random brackets are overwhelmingly likely to fail*, so your best bet is to make an honest effort to predict the winners.  The seeding isn't perfect, but it does take a season's worth of data and some best-effort human guesses to minimize the chance of upsets.  Arguably, if you didn't pick any upsets at all you've got the "perfect" bracket, at least through the first round assuming the committee is infallible.  Which we know it isn't, but my point is, while you'll get close, you're invariably going to get screwed by the upsets because they do happen.

Granted this isn't a game where "the only winning move is to not play" (if you win you win ONE BILLION DOLLARSBUCKS), but basically if you spent any time at all on the bracket, and your time is worth at least minimum wage, about the only value you got out of the experience is some enjoyment.  Mind you there's nothing wrong with doing something for fun so anyone who got that much got more than me sitting on my smug ass here.  But I've never filled out a bracket in my life; I'd have done it for the money and I knew exactly what Buffet was getting at.

I'm sure he'd honor his promise if someone somehow did win, but in reality he has no intention of losing money on this.  This is just to make a point, and I already got the point.

*Most of them will have at least one 16 seed upsetting a 1 seed and that has yet to happen.


I bet your a ton of fun at parties
 
2014-03-21 06:25:46 PM  
I refer to think about all the QuickenLoans spam they gained
 
2014-03-21 06:33:49 PM  

Daedalus27: downstairs: Uzzah: This guy is still in. Maybe others, too (I haven't looked at all the leaders). Not for long, probably, but still...

I love how they have a tiebreaker.  There's a one in like 700 million chance of picking the perfect bracket.

The tiebreaker can be used if there are two people with flawed brackets. If you have 2 brackets with  say 58 out of 63 correct picks with the same championship team pairing and choice. So it is considerably more likely than 700m to one.  Probably happens every year or every few years being used.


Oh I know... I should have clarified.  I understand they're using Yahoo's system, which needs that anyway.  Its just funny to see on a contest that no one in the world thought would last beyond today's round.
 
2014-03-21 06:49:15 PM  

downstairs: Daedalus27: downstairs: Uzzah: This guy is still in. Maybe others, too (I haven't looked at all the leaders). Not for long, probably, but still...

I love how they have a tiebreaker.  There's a one in like 700 million chance of picking the perfect bracket.

The tiebreaker can be used if there are two people with flawed brackets. If you have 2 brackets with  say 58 out of 63 correct picks with the same championship team pairing and choice. So it is considerably more likely than 700m to one.  Probably happens every year or every few years being used.

Oh I know... I should have clarified.  I understand they're using Yahoo's system, which needs that anyway.  Its just funny to see on a contest that no one in the world thought would last beyond today's round.


Aren't there still prizes at stake for top non-perfect brackets, though?
 
2014-03-21 07:01:43 PM  

Uzzah: WalkingCarpet: Scratch that, no one is left.  Stanford's win FUBAR'd the remaining perfect brackets.

This guy is still in. Maybe others, too (I haven't looked at all the leaders). Not for long, probably, but still...


If OK-State losses, he won't be perfect for very long.
 
2014-03-21 07:12:57 PM  

NeoCortex42: downstairs: Daedalus27: downstairs: Uzzah: This guy is still in. Maybe others, too (I haven't looked at all the leaders). Not for long, probably, but still...

I love how they have a tiebreaker.  There's a one in like 700 million chance of picking the perfect bracket.

The tiebreaker can be used if there are two people with flawed brackets. If you have 2 brackets with  say 58 out of 63 correct picks with the same championship team pairing and choice. So it is considerably more likely than 700m to one.  Probably happens every year or every few years being used.

Oh I know... I should have clarified.  I understand they're using Yahoo's system, which needs that anyway.  Its just funny to see on a contest that no one in the world thought would last beyond today's round.

Aren't there still prizes at stake for top non-perfect brackets, though?


Yes, the top 20 get 100k.  So still not bad.
 
2014-03-21 07:27:52 PM  
According to ESPN numbers out of over 11 million entries ESPN was down to 16 perfects after Tennessee's win.
For the Billion dollar challenge it's down to 6 perfects.  I can't seem to find anything on the number of entries but it was capped at 15 million.
 
2014-03-21 07:29:44 PM  
If I'm reading correctly, 7 out of 11 remaining perfect brackets on Yahoo have Oklahoma State over Gonzaga. With about 30 seconds to play, Gonzaga is up 81-73. That's going to wipe most of the rest of them out.
 
2014-03-21 07:46:17 PM  
I see three perfect ones remaining after the OK State loss:

Letisha
Eric
and
Michelle

At least one will be knocked out by the Providence - N. Carolina game going on now (Letisha's picking the upset), and both Michelle and Letisha have picked longshot #14 NC Central over #3 Iowa State later tonight. I have a feeling that Eric is the only one with a real chance anymore.
 
2014-03-21 07:49:53 PM  
Three perfect brackets left.

Challenges for the brackets are as follows:
Letisha has Providence beating UNC, Kentucky beating WSU and Mercer beating Tennessee.
Eric has Wisconsin beating Arizona and Iowa State winning the East
Michelle has NC Central beating UNC and Harvard beating UVA
 
2014-03-21 07:50:02 PM  
Damn! My EKU Colonels DAMN near pulled it off. I think that would have brought it to about 99.9% of brackets eliminated.
 
2014-03-21 07:50:29 PM  

Uzzah: I see three perfect ones remaining after the OK State loss:

Letisha
Eric
and
Michelle

At least one will be knocked out by the Providence - N. Carolina game going on now (Letisha's picking the upset), and both Michelle and Letisha have picked longshot #14 NC Central over #3 Iowa State later tonight. I have a feeling that Eric is the only one with a real chance anymore.


Yeah, what you said.  That's what I get for making dinner in the middle of a post.
 
2014-03-21 08:08:47 PM  

Uzzah: I see three perfect ones remaining after the OK State loss:

Letisha
Eric
and
Michelle

At least one will be knocked out by the Providence - N. Carolina game going on now (Letisha's picking the upset), and both Michelle and Letisha have picked longshot #14 NC Central over #3 Iowa State later tonight. I have a feeling that Eric is the only one with a real chance anymore.


Michelle has Florida over Witichita state for the finals, I really doubt that will happen.  I am starting to think that the best way to do it is pick the 1 and 2 seeds in the first and second rounds, then literally flip a coin on every other game
 
2014-03-21 08:26:48 PM  
Fark Ohio State.
 
2014-03-21 08:32:06 PM  

SnakeLee: I am starting to think that the best way to do it is pick the 1 and 2 seeds in the first and second rounds, then literally flip a coin on every other game


I'd do it this way:

First round:
All # 1s and #2s picked to win
#3 vs # 14 and # 4 vs # 13: flip a coin three times -- if it comes up tails all three times, pick the underdog; otherwise, pick the favorite
#5 vs # 12 and # 6 vs # 11: two coinflips -- pick the underdog only if both come up tails
#7 vs # 10 and # 8 vs # 9: straight up single coinflip

Subsequent rounds:
If the disparity between the seeding of the two teams is 0-2: single coinflip to pick winner
If the seeding disparity is 2-4: two coinflips, underdog has to win both to be picked
If the disparty is 5+: underdog has to win 3 coinflips to be picked.

This gives some room for underdogs to get lucky and have upsets, but it gives the tournament seedings some credibility, too.
 
2014-03-21 08:45:05 PM  

Nefarious: Had Dayton but lost it on Harvard's win.  Not that I thought I'd manage anywhere close.


Same here.
 
2014-03-21 09:23:44 PM  
They're all out now, all 3 of them had George Washington to win.
 
2014-03-21 09:45:43 PM  
Looks like this guy is still in it

Link
 
2014-03-21 10:03:42 PM  
Wow, I just did some math:

There are 9.2*10^18 bracket possibilities.
The population of the earth is 7 billion.  If everyone on earth submitted a unique bracket there's a 1 in 1.3 billion shot that someone would submit a perfect bracket.

If everyone on earth started submitting brackets at 5pm CT on Sunday when they were announced and did so nonstop until the first tip-off at 11am CT on Thursday, and were somehow able to submit 1 per second, then each person would have submitted 324,000 brackets.  Assuming each one of those brackets is unique, there is a 1 in 4,067 shot one of them would be perfect.
 
2014-03-21 10:05:28 PM  

balki1867: Wow, I just did some math:

There are 9.2*10^18 bracket possibilities.
The population of the earth is 7 billion.  If everyone on earth submitted a unique bracket there's a 1 in 1.3 billion shot that someone would submit a perfect bracket.

If everyone on earth started submitting brackets at 5pm CT on Sunday when they were announced and did so nonstop until the first tip-off at 11am CT on Thursday, and were somehow able to submit 1 per second, then each person would have submitted 324,000 brackets.  Assuming each one of those brackets is unique, there is a 1 in 4,067 shot one of them would be perfect.


The real odds are closer to 1 in 128 billion.  Of course, that's assuming Duke doesn't choke on its own ass.
 
2014-03-21 10:11:34 PM  

TheRevHairless: Looks like this guy is still in it

Link


Nope, it is now official, no one will get the billion.
 
2014-03-21 10:26:01 PM  

Mentat: The real odds are closer to 1 in 128 billion. Of course, that's assuming Duke doesn't choke on its own ass.


Where's your science now, Nate Silver?
 
2014-03-21 10:28:39 PM  

TheRevHairless: Looks like this guy is still in it

Link


Per the upper right corner, he's not entered in the billion dollar pool. Imagine how he'll feel if he aces it, though.
 
2014-03-21 10:50:02 PM  

Uzzah: Per the upper right corner, he's not entered in the billion dollar pool. Imagine how he'll feel if he aces it, though.


Wow, as things stand at the moment, Coastal Carolina has the best shot of ruining his perfect round.  How messed up is that?
 
2014-03-21 10:58:33 PM  
Yup, just got my email - no perfect brackets remain. Well that didn't take long.
 
2014-03-22 12:14:51 AM  
And they said my Mercer degree wouldn't amount to anything.
 
2014-03-22 12:18:21 AM  

TheRevHairless: Looks like this guy is still in it

Link


Yeah, we were counting down in the main madness thread.

/check out the big brain on brad!
 
2014-03-22 12:25:33 AM  

Uzzah: TheRevHairless: Looks like this guy is still in it

Link

Per the upper right corner, he's not entered in the billion dollar pool. Imagine how he'll feel if he aces it, though.


If UCLA hangs on, he'll be the only guy on Yahoo that made it out of the first round.

I can't imagine what would be going through his head.
 
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