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(Five Thirty-Eight)   For at least the last 40 years, at this point in the election cycle the eventual GOP presidential nominee has always been leading in GOP primary polls, except for one time when he polled second. So get ready for Huckabee or Christie in 2016   (fivethirtyeight.com) divider line 82
    More: Obvious, GOP, presidents, primaries, Mike Huckabee, Rudy Giuliani  
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1002 clicks; posted to Politics » on 21 Mar 2014 at 3:23 PM (44 weeks ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2014-03-21 12:52:02 PM  
Huckabee has a way better chance than Christie, IMO.
 
2014-03-21 01:29:37 PM  

DamnYankees: Huckabee has a way better chance than Christie, IMO.


Which is no chance at all, really.
 
2014-03-21 01:30:27 PM  

ecmoRandomNumbers: DamnYankees: Huckabee has a way better chance than Christie, IMO.

Which is no chance at all, really.


For the nomination? Why not?
 
2014-03-21 01:39:03 PM  

DamnYankees: ecmoRandomNumbers: DamnYankees: Huckabee has a way better chance than Christie, IMO.

Which is no chance at all, really.

For the nomination? Why not?


I meant for the general election.
 
2014-03-21 01:56:09 PM  
The 'Pubes don't have a Big Money Mitt-type waiting in the wings? That's my prediction for what kind of candidate they'll end up with.

Huckaberry is too religious and Christie is stained with being nice to Obongo that time and Trafficgate. Besides, the Kochs want somebody who'll be nice to rich people and that pretty much settles the question.
 
2014-03-21 02:45:10 PM  
Ah, the Huckabee Plan.

Assume that a percentage of the media is liberal or at least consists of liberals given that they're based out of NYC, Washington, and LA.   http://archive.mrc.org/biasbasics/biasbasics3.asp.  Let us call this the liberal media Media Made Up Of Liberals (MMUOL).  This is in much the same way that while America is not a Christian Nation, wow, does it have a lot of Christians in it, and a lot of the federal holidays and school breaks just happen to fall on Christian holidays.

archive.mrc.org

On the Huckabee Plan, you succeed by being  as stupid as possible. Not only does this attract a surprising number of voters, who may be just as stupid or even stupider - the Republican Party's base is not exactly the cream of the crop - it also attracts the attention of the MMUOL, whose favorite sport is to promote the worst plausible Republican Party candidates. As usual with the MMUOL, this is a consequence of casual snobbery rather than malignant conspiracy, but it is effective nonetheless. It is always fun to write a human-interest story about a really wacky peasant, especially one who happens to be running for President.
 
2014-03-21 03:00:12 PM  
The GOP top five are Mike Huckabee, Chris Christie, Jeb Bush, RAND PAUL!!1!!, and Paul Ryan. Huckabee seems likely to have an edge, but I'm not sure the numbers in TFA show any of the tier-II are statistically different from Jeb Bush.

Without looking up the hard numbers: 9 polls, @ likely the typical N≈800 people; using rule-of-thumb N rule, aggregate 95% confidence interval about ±1.2%?
 
2014-03-21 03:19:24 PM  

meyerkev: Ah, the Huckabee Plan.


I'm not sure what exactly your point is with this post, other than that you don't know who won the 2008 GOP primary and that you think the Media Research Center is a credible source.
 
2014-03-21 03:26:05 PM  
A bible-thumping, creationist lardass?  Huck is perfect for the GOP.
 
2014-03-21 03:28:54 PM  
Ted Cruz is the only acceptable candidate if you aren't part of the eGOP.

/So say the Freepers.
 
2014-03-21 03:33:41 PM  
Oh yes, run Huckabee. I can't imagine how that might backfire spectacularly.
 
2014-03-21 03:35:19 PM  

Mad Scientist: A bible-thumping, creationist lardass?  Huck is perfect for the GOP.


And he's pro-rape.  He let a convicted rapist out of jail to rape/murder two more victims before police caught him and threw him back in jail.
 
2014-03-21 03:35:52 PM  
The GOP will Frankenstein them together into Christabie.
 
2014-03-21 03:37:01 PM  
Didn't Hucklebee pardon some dude who killed some cops or something? there's some weird dirt on that guy from the last election
 
2014-03-21 03:37:08 PM  
Wait, Santorum was really close to Romney! We need to push Frothy! I'm already thinking of slogans.
"Santorum 2016: Tell those gay liberal elites to stop shoving their big hard agenda down our throats while penetrating our sacred beliefs!"
"Santorum 2016: Two holes in every stall!"
"Santorum 2016: insert sex joke here."
 
2014-03-21 03:37:32 PM  
I find it much more interesting that neither Clinton nor Obama were even on the charts in the years they won.
 
2014-03-21 03:38:32 PM  
"Meanwhile, on the Republican side, the difference between Huckabee and Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin, who ranks fifth according to polls, is only 4 percentage points."

...so therefore you shouldn't try to draw any premature conclusions, here.
 
2014-03-21 03:38:48 PM  

Richard C Stanford: Wait, Santorum was really close to Romney! We need to push Frothy! I'm already thinking of slogans.
"Santorum 2016: Tell those gay liberal elites to stop shoving their big hard agenda down our throats while penetrating our sacred beliefs!"
"Santorum 2016: Two holes in every stall!"
"Santorum 2016: insert sex joke here."


"Santorum 2016: We're tired of leaks"
 
2014-03-21 03:40:21 PM  

DamnYankees: ecmoRandomNumbers: DamnYankees: Huckabee has a way better chance than Christie, IMO.

Which is no chance at all, really.

For the nomination? Why not?


Christie will likely fail the Second Amendment test.

This wasn't a big factor in the 2012 election because President Obama wisely (from a reelection standpoint) refrained from taking any significant action on gun control in his first term, even after several very high profile events (Gabby Giffords, Aurora Theater etc.), but post Sandy Hook and the president's push for background checks after his second term was secured, and Dianne Feinstein's continued push for an assault weapons ban*, it will be a bigger factor in 2016.

Christie actually knows this is a problem for him, and he's done a 180 on his positions on the subject, but it's still going to hurt him in the Republican primaries in pretty much every state except New York, New Jersey, and a handful of others.

*It's like she wants the Democrats to lose the Senate this year.
 
2014-03-21 03:41:43 PM  

Heamer: The GOP will Frankenstein them together into Christabie.


It won't even be that hard.  Just cram Huckabee into a random fold between one of Christie's chins, and the resulting Ettin-like front runner can debate itself and take both sides of any given issue.  Because it would have worked last time, except Mitt only had one head.

Bonus: Christie can be the head in the center, and Huckabee will be the head to the right.

This one's free, GOP.  The next one, you're going to have to pay me as a consultant.
 
2014-03-21 03:42:04 PM  
Christie, because Huckabee's on record as wanting to rewrite the Constitution.
 
2014-03-21 03:43:41 PM  

LouDobbsAwaaaay: Mad Scientist: A bible-thumping, creationist lardass?  Huck is perfect for the GOP.

And he's pro-rape.  He let a convicted rapist out of jail to rape/murder two more victims before police caught him and threw him back in jail.


Lee Atwater (from Hell) and Willie Horton (from his cell) tell the GOP:  "Go for it!!!"
 
2014-03-21 03:44:49 PM  
here, i'll crank my speculator up to 11.

Scott Walker.
 
2014-03-21 03:46:08 PM  

abb3w: The GOP top five are Mike Huckabee, Chris Christie, Jeb Bush, RAND PAUL!!1!!, and Paul Ryan. Huckabee seems likely to have an edge, but I'm not sure the numbers in TFA show any of the tier-II are statistically different from Jeb Bush.


I agree with your top 5, although I'd expand it to 6 and thrown in Ted Cruz (being repulsive is not a deal-breaker in the primaries).  Those are the only candidates that I can see winning the Republican nomination.
 
2014-03-21 03:46:56 PM  
Hillary would eat Mike "tell me about your libido" Huckabee alive. He would be the absolute worst person the GOP could pick to run against her, which of course means they will.
 
2014-03-21 03:47:08 PM  

Richard C Stanford: Wait, Santorum was really close to Romney! We need to push Frothy! I'm already thinking of slogans.
"Santorum 2016: Tell those gay liberal elites to stop shoving their big hard agenda down our throats while penetrating our sacred beliefs!"
"Santorum 2016: Two holes in every stall!"
"Santorum 2016: insert sex joke here."


Santorum often comes from behind in a race, but you know he always makes a mess of things in the end.
 
2014-03-21 03:47:16 PM  

UncomfortableSilence: "Santorum 2016: We're tired of leaks"


Santorum 2016: Making tracks
 
2014-03-21 03:47:19 PM  

meat0918: Christie, because Huckabee's on record as wanting to rewrite the Constitution.


You forget that most of the base only cares about the constitution as an abstract idea worth preserving.  They have little idea of what it means outside of when they believe it supports their right to do or say something without consequence.  Much like their bible.  If Huckabee wants to make it more conservative, they'll be on board in a hurry.
 
2014-03-21 03:47:37 PM  

Headso: Didn't Hucklebee pardon some dude who killed some cops or something? there's some weird dirt on that guy from the last election


That is only wrong when Dukakis does it.
 
2014-03-21 03:50:41 PM  
Ok:

Reinforced stage with snacks stored in podium - Check
Sprinking of token blacks to give the crowd a little bit of color - Check
Idiotic speech about "being tough" and why Obama is bad, for Christie to read - Check
Idiotic speech about "religious persecution" from the left and why Obama is bad, for Huckabee to read - Check


/I think I'm ready, Subby
 
2014-03-21 03:51:02 PM  

DamnYankees: ecmoRandomNumbers: DamnYankees: Huckabee has a way better chance than Christie, IMO.

Which is no chance at all, really.

For the nomination? Why not?


www.outsidethebeltway.com

He met with Obama and gave him a handshake, which amounts to treason for the base.   That said, he is in full Benghazi Derp: Not a good Choice for POTUS but a good VP.
 
2014-03-21 03:52:21 PM  

Mantour: Not a good Choice for POTUS but a good VP.


I see him as the VP choice to secure social conservatives for either Paul Ryan or Jeb Bush.
 
2014-03-21 03:52:39 PM  

Captain Dan: abb3w: The GOP top five are Mike Huckabee, Chris Christie, Jeb Bush, RAND PAUL!!1!!, and Paul Ryan. Huckabee seems likely to have an edge, but I'm not sure the numbers in TFA show any of the tier-II are statistically different from Jeb Bush.

I agree with your top 5, although I'd expand it to 6 and thrown in Ted Cruz (being repulsive is not a deal-breaker in the primaries).  Those are the only candidates that I can see winning the Republican nomination.


Ted Cruz was not born in America.
 
2014-03-21 03:53:19 PM  

Fubini: UncomfortableSilence: "Santorum 2016: We're tired of leaks"

Santorum 2016: Making tracks


Santorum 2016: After the farking this GOP has received, I'm all that's left
 
2014-03-21 03:56:35 PM  
SO "Fat is where it's at"

Seriously, Americans are not gong to vote for anyone who is over the to religions. They want someone of faith but they also want a President, not a minister.
 
2014-03-21 03:58:35 PM  

colon_pow: here, i'll crank my speculator up to 11.

Scott Walker.


I would like the country to see how spectacularly he has failed this state. If Ryan as a VP nom couldn't turn Wisconsin red in the presidential election, I highly doubt Walker could.
 
2014-03-21 04:01:59 PM  

edmo: SO "Fat is where it's at"

Seriously, Americans are not gong to vote for anyone who is over the to religions. They want someone of faith but they also want a President, not a minister.


Considering that a majority of Republicans just voted for a freakin' Mormon, it's clear that they don't actually care much about what religion their candidate is, or how religious.
 
2014-03-21 04:05:04 PM  

DROxINxTHExWIND: Captain Dan: abb3w: The GOP top five are Mike Huckabee, Chris Christie, Jeb Bush, RAND PAUL!!1!!, and Paul Ryan. Huckabee seems likely to have an edge, but I'm not sure the numbers in TFA show any of the tier-II are statistically different from Jeb Bush.

I agree with your top 5, although I'd expand it to 6 and thrown in Ted Cruz (being repulsive is not a deal-breaker in the primaries).  Those are the only candidates that I can see winning the Republican nomination.

Ted Cruz was not born in America.


That only matters if you're a Democrat.
 
2014-03-21 04:05:05 PM  
Let Huckabee win the presidency - of a separate country composed of the Southern states. They want unenlightened theocracy and we don't. Plus, we'll finally be rid of those neanderthals so we can govern like a first-world country. It's a win-win.
 
2014-03-21 04:07:31 PM  

DROxINxTHExWIND: Captain Dan: abb3w: The GOP top five are Mike Huckabee, Chris Christie, Jeb Bush, RAND PAUL!!1!!, and Paul Ryan. Huckabee seems likely to have an edge, but I'm not sure the numbers in TFA show any of the tier-II are statistically different from Jeb Bush.

I agree with your top 5, although I'd expand it to 6 and thrown in Ted Cruz (being repulsive is not a deal-breaker in the primaries).  Those are the only candidates that I can see winning the Republican nomination.

Ted Cruz was not born in America.


Like that matters.
 
2014-03-21 04:08:50 PM  

menschenfresser: Let Huckabee win the presidency - of a separate country composed of the Southern states. They want unenlightened theocracy and we don't. Plus, we'll finally be rid of those neanderthals so we can govern like a first-world country. It's a win-win.


You will accept refugees, right?
 
2014-03-21 04:11:14 PM  

Krymson Tyde: menschenfresser: Let Huckabee win the presidency - of a separate country composed of the Southern states. They want unenlightened theocracy and we don't. Plus, we'll finally be rid of those neanderthals so we can govern like a first-world country. It's a win-win.

You will accept refugees, right?


Sure, on an exchange basis. For example, we'll take an intelligent person from down there only if we exchange them for a batshiat person from up here, like Michele Bachmann.
 
2014-03-21 04:12:25 PM  

Krymson Tyde: DROxINxTHExWIND: Captain Dan: abb3w: The GOP top five are Mike Huckabee, Chris Christie, Jeb Bush, RAND PAUL!!1!!, and Paul Ryan. Huckabee seems likely to have an edge, but I'm not sure the numbers in TFA show any of the tier-II are statistically different from Jeb Bush.

I agree with your top 5, although I'd expand it to 6 and thrown in Ted Cruz (being repulsive is not a deal-breaker in the primaries).  Those are the only candidates that I can see winning the Republican nomination.

Ted Cruz was not born in America.

Like that matters.


Cruz's nomination would be a coup in the GOP.  The establishment GOP hates him because of his behavior during (and since) the shutdown - they see him as more trouble than he's worth, and someone who can't reliably back the party when called on to do so.  He would receive no support from the party leaders in a Presidential push, foreign birth notwithstanding.
 
2014-03-21 04:14:47 PM  
I think that Huckabee would normally stand a very good chance in the Republican primary, given his length of history with the party and the fact that he seems to at least show some forms of charisma. A few years ago I would even given him at least a decent shot at the presidency.

However, I strongly believe he would fair horribly in the general election, especially against Hillary Clinton, as commercials of his personal support for Aiken's rape comments would saturate the air waves. If anything that would solidify majority support among women as being a part of the permanent Democratic voting block, and that would be it for the Republican party.
 
2014-03-21 04:19:22 PM  
homepages.rootsweb.ancestry.comhomepages.rootsweb.ancestry.com homepages.rootsweb.ancestry.com homepages.rootsweb.ancestry.com homepages.rootsweb.ancestry.com homepages.rootsweb.ancestry.com


/just trying to creep you out; nothing more.
 
2014-03-21 04:20:53 PM  
Santorum 2016:  Bringing home the bacon (strips)!
 
2014-03-21 04:25:13 PM  
So it works, except when it doesn't.

Brilliant.
 
2014-03-21 04:28:14 PM  
While I'm not exactly enthusiastic about a Hillary presidency, I will vote for her because I will never, ever, ever, under any circumstances, ever, vote for a Republican again, for national or local office. The GOP could run a cross between Moses Maimonides and Mother Teresa and I still would not vote for him/her/it. The could run the reincarnation of Abraham Lincoln and I wouldn't vote for him. Seriously, the Republican Party has passed beyond the pale into a no man's land of moral turpitude. Never, never, never, ever, ever, ever.
 
2014-03-21 04:35:05 PM  

Jodeo: [homepages.rootsweb.ancestry.com image 350x465][homepages.rootsweb.ancestry.com image 350x465] [homepages.rootsweb.ancestry.com image 350x465] [homepages.rootsweb.ancestry.com image 350x465] [homepages.rootsweb.ancestry.com image 350x465] [homepages.rootsweb.ancestry.com image 350x465]


/just trying to creep you out; nothing more.



d38zt8ehae1tnt.cloudfront.net
 
2014-03-21 04:40:33 PM  

meyerkev: Ah, the Huckabee Plan.

Assume that a percentage of the media is liberal or at least consists of liberals given that they're based out of NYC, Washington, and LA.   http://archive.mrc.org/biasbasics/biasbasics3.asp.  Let us call this the liberal media Media Made Up Of Liberals (MMUOL).  This is in much the same way that while America is not a Christian Nation, wow, does it have a lot of Christians in it, and a lot of the federal holidays and school breaks just happen to fall on Christian holidays.

[archive.mrc.org image 359x291]

On the Huckabee Plan, you succeed by being  as stupid as possible. Not only does this attract a surprising number of voters, who may be just as stupid or even stupider - the Republican Party's base is not exactly the cream of the crop - it also attracts the attention of the MMUOL, whose favorite sport is to promote the worst plausible Republican Party candidates. As usual with the MMUOL, this is a consequence of casual snobbery rather than malignant conspiracy, but it is effective nonetheless. It is always fun to write a human-interest story about a really wacky peasant, especially one who happens to be running for President.


cimsec.org

This post confounds me...it's not entirely nonsense; there are cogent thoughts in there.  It's like someone took a handful of ideas/statements, shook them up in a Scrabble bag, then had someone with ADD assemble them into two paragraphs while a butterfly fluttered around their head.
 
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