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(Five Thirty-Eight)   Your odds of winning Buffett's billion dollar bracket are really 1 in 7,419,071,319, and it's still not worth it   (fivethirtyeight.com) divider line 42
    More: Interesting, Warren Buffett, Bialik, tournament bracket, winning Buffett, brackets, dollars  
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890 clicks; posted to Sports » on 19 Mar 2014 at 2:32 PM (23 weeks ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



42 Comments   (+0 »)
   
View Voting Results: Smartest and Funniest
 
2014-03-19 01:17:07 PM
Know what else isn't worth it?  A Repeat.
 
2014-03-19 01:31:14 PM

Lt. Cheese Weasel: Know what else isn't worth it?  A Repeat.


The other thread was about the odds assuming random chance, so at worst it's a followup
 
2014-03-19 02:15:26 PM
Not worth it for my employer, subby.

/Big difference.
 
2014-03-19 02:35:25 PM
The cost is free. There is no worth at all. Expected value is greater than 1. Play if you want.
 
2014-03-19 02:37:38 PM

MyRandomName: The cost is free. There is no worth at all. Expected value is greater than 1. Play if you want.


Yeah, this isn't a lottery, at least if you're in the first 2 million or whatever free window they set.  Free to play, and if you go lights-out, you get whatever share of the prize is yours.
 
2014-03-19 02:40:53 PM

MyRandomName: The cost is free. There is no worth at all. Expected value is greater than 1. Play if you want.


Since it required me to allow yahoo to send my phone an SMS message and required me to sign up for Quicken email spam, I do not want.  It's just a giant marketing opportunity.  I'll enter when they pay me for my information and attention.
 
2014-03-19 02:42:49 PM

The Flexecutioner: MyRandomName: The cost is free. There is no worth at all. Expected value is greater than 1. Play if you want.

Since it required me to allow yahoo to send my phone an SMS message and required me to sign up for Quicken email spam, I do not want.  It's just a giant marketing opportunity.  I'll enter when they pay me for my information and attention.


Yeah, exactly. That billion dollars is funded by the sale of this list of people's information.
 
2014-03-19 02:54:07 PM

jaylectricity: The Flexecutioner: MyRandomName: The cost is free. There is no worth at all. Expected value is greater than 1. Play if you want.

Since it required me to allow yahoo to send my phone an SMS message and required me to sign up for Quicken email spam, I do not want.  It's just a giant marketing opportunity.  I'll enter when they pay me for my information and attention.

Yeah, exactly. That billion dollars is funded by the sale of this list of people's information.


It's also capped at 15 million entries.  I'm pretty sure they have no expectations whatsoever of having to pay it.
 
2014-03-19 02:57:22 PM
Oh hey, this thread again!
 
2014-03-19 02:57:31 PM
It's worth whatever you want to get out of it. In the case of Fark, apparently it's worth a 4th greenlight.
 
2014-03-19 02:59:31 PM
Also if you're in the top 20 you win $100,000 but you're right, why bother?
 
2014-03-19 03:12:10 PM
Your odds of entering it on Sunday right after the selection show were zero in infinity. The website was messed up, and it made the whole thing look like a phishing scheme to get wireless numbers to text spam. It was fixed Monday, though.
 
2014-03-19 03:13:49 PM

Imperialism: Also if you're in the top 20 you win $100,000 but you're right, why bother?


$100,000 that you have to spend on property with a loan for the balance.
 
2014-03-19 03:26:07 PM
I hope Obama wins it.
 
2014-03-19 03:27:13 PM

jaylectricity: Imperialism: Also if you're in the top 20 you win $100,000 but you're right, why bother?

$100,000 that you have to spend on property with a loan for the balance.


So I get instant 100k equity. Works for me.
 
2014-03-19 03:30:37 PM
I'm in!!

Love the march madness!! 100K would be nice! for a down payment on a house, sure! I'll take it.
 
2014-03-19 03:33:35 PM

jaylectricity: Imperialism: Also if you're in the top 20 you win $100,000 but you're right, why bother?

$100,000 that you have to spend on property with a loan for the balance.


I thought the official rules just stated it's awarded in the form of a check, I don't remember seeing any restrictions. I remember reading them advertising the prize as "$100,000 toward a new home!" but didn't see anything in the official rules.
 
2014-03-19 03:34:08 PM

Vintowin: I'm in!!

Love the march madness!! 100K would be nice! for a down payment on a house, sure! I'll take it.


good luck, man.   i'm pulling for you.
 
2014-03-19 03:34:33 PM
Mine are actually 0, because I refuse to give out my cell number, which I don't have to give my bank.

fark Yahoo.
fark Quicken.
fark Warren Buffett if this is how he made his money.
 
2014-03-19 03:39:27 PM
Ok the odds are incredibly long.  We get that.  We probably don't get how long, but there it is.  However what are the costs involved in entry.  A minute to fill out the form, a couple minutes to make picks if your inclined to think about it.  Are the long odds to with a billion worth a couple minutes of time and thinking about winning?  I think so, or at least that is what I convinced myself when I filled out my bracket for the contest.  Besides, there are lesser 100k prizes for the best ones who don't pick them all so it isn't as if it is jackpot or nothing.
 
2014-03-19 03:43:21 PM

The Flexecutioner: MyRandomName: The cost is free. There is no worth at all. Expected value is greater than 1. Play if you want.

Since it required me to allow yahoo to send my phone an SMS message and required me to sign up for Quicken email spam, I do not want.  It's just a giant marketing opportunity.  I'll enter when they pay me for my information and attention.


Meh, that's what junk email accounts are for.  What are they going to do with my phone number anyways?

jaylectricity: Imperialism: Also if you're in the top 20 you win $100,000 but you're right, why bother?

$100,000 that you have to spend on property with a loan for the balance.


But what if I buy a shiatty house?  Do I get to keep the leftover money?
 
2014-03-19 03:48:03 PM

IlGreven: Mine are actually 0, because I refuse to give out my cell number, which I don't have to give my bank.

fark Yahoo.
fark Quicken.
fark Warren Buffett if this is how he made his money.


It's trivially easy to find people's cell phone numbers now a days.  Even then, before cell phones, most people's phone numbers could be easily found through something called a phone book.
 
2014-03-19 03:50:26 PM

llortcM_yllort: It's trivially easy to find people's cell phone numbers now a days.  Even then, before cell phones, most people's phone numbers could be easily found through something called a phone book.


Pshaw, Phone Books are what you use to level out a table or for short people who can't afford a step ladder.
 
2014-03-19 03:51:25 PM

llortcM_yllort: The Flexecutioner: MyRandomName: The cost is free. There is no worth at all. Expected value is greater than 1. Play if you want.

Since it required me to allow yahoo to send my phone an SMS message and required me to sign up for Quicken email spam, I do not want.  It's just a giant marketing opportunity.  I'll enter when they pay me for my information and attention.

Meh, that's what junk email accounts are for.  What are they going to do with my phone number anyways?

jaylectricity: Imperialism: Also if you're in the top 20 you win $100,000 but you're right, why bother?

$100,000 that you have to spend on property with a loan for the balance.

But what if I buy a shiatty house?  Do I get to keep the leftover money?


I'm guessing "$100k towards a new house!" means they have deals with home builders and the small print says you have to buy from them and the house has to be worth at least 'X' total amount.
 
2014-03-19 03:53:24 PM
I paid nothing.  so why not?
 
2014-03-19 04:10:03 PM

degenerate-afro: llortcM_yllort: It's trivially easy to find people's cell phone numbers now a days.  Even then, before cell phones, most people's phone numbers could be easily found through something called a phone book.

Pshaw, Phone Books are what you use to level out a table or for short people who can't afford a step ladder.


or to snort a little blow off of if your wife breaks all the mirrors.
 
2014-03-19 04:11:29 PM
By his own admission, Nate Silver has a 7,419,071,318  in 7,419,071,319 of being wrong.  Therefore, I'm betting against all of his picks.  I can't lose.
 
2014-03-19 04:25:30 PM

stir22: degenerate-afro: llortcM_yllort: It's trivially easy to find people's cell phone numbers now a days.  Even then, before cell phones, most people's phone numbers could be easily found through something called a phone book.

Pshaw, Phone Books are what you use to level out a table or for short people who can't afford a step ladder.

or to snort a little blow off of if your wife breaks all the mirrors.


I thought thats what hookers were for.  Mirrors > Hookers > Toilet tanks > Phone books > Dumpster lids was the progression.
 
2014-03-19 04:29:36 PM
Are there Fark brackets other than the ESPN and Fox ones?  The yahoo one last year was the biggest but it wont accept my google voice number as a valid mobile number so thats out.   The espn one has about 30 entries and is listed as Fark.com if you search by name.  It's public so no password needed.
 
2014-03-19 04:36:39 PM
So you're yelling me there's a chance?
 
2014-03-19 04:47:12 PM

Daedalus27: Ok the odds are incredibly long.  We get that.  We probably don't get how long, but there it is.  However what are the costs involved in entry.  A minute to fill out the form, a couple minutes to make picks if your inclined to think about it.  Are the long odds to with a billion worth a couple minutes of time and thinking about winning?  I think so, or at least that is what I convinced myself when I filled out my bracket for the contest.  Besides, there are lesser 100k prizes for the best ones who don't pick them all so it isn't as if it is jackpot or nothing.


Meh, the time spent and annyoying telemarketers (worse because I tend to be out of my local are and if I answer that is an instant 30cent charge) and text messages probably aren't worth a negligible chance at winning either the half billion dollars or 100k.
 
2014-03-19 05:05:35 PM

dywed88: Daedalus27: Ok the odds are incredibly long.  We get that.  We probably don't get how long, but there it is.  However what are the costs involved in entry.  A minute to fill out the form, a couple minutes to make picks if your inclined to think about it.  Are the long odds to with a billion worth a couple minutes of time and thinking about winning?  I think so, or at least that is what I convinced myself when I filled out my bracket for the contest.  Besides, there are lesser 100k prizes for the best ones who don't pick them all so it isn't as if it is jackpot or nothing.

Meh, the time spent and annyoying telemarketers (worse because I tend to be out of my local are and if I answer that is an instant 30cent charge) and text messages probably aren't worth a negligible chance at winning either the half billion dollars or 100k.


Local Area?  Is your cel plan from grandfathered from 1997?  I havent heard that term in forever.
 
2014-03-19 05:34:55 PM

elguerodiablo: dywed88: Daedalus27: Ok the odds are incredibly long.  We get that.  We probably don't get how long, but there it is.  However what are the costs involved in entry.  A minute to fill out the form, a couple minutes to make picks if your inclined to think about it.  Are the long odds to with a billion worth a couple minutes of time and thinking about winning?  I think so, or at least that is what I convinced myself when I filled out my bracket for the contest.  Besides, there are lesser 100k prizes for the best ones who don't pick them all so it isn't as if it is jackpot or nothing.

Meh, the time spent and annyoying telemarketers (worse because I tend to be out of my local are and if I answer that is an instant 30cent charge) and text messages probably aren't worth a negligible chance at winning either the half billion dollars or 100k.

Local Area?  Is your cel plan from grandfathered from 1997?  I havent heard that term in forever.


What text messages? What phone calls? 

When I put in my number for the verification I got the code, and that was it. Just uncheck the 'mailing-list' options and you won't see any issues. 

People that are so damn concerned with their privacy that it edges on obsession have a serious complex. .
 
2014-03-19 05:49:59 PM

elguerodiablo: dywed88: Daedalus27: Ok the odds are incredibly long.  We get that.  We probably don't get how long, but there it is.  However what are the costs involved in entry.  A minute to fill out the form, a couple minutes to make picks if your inclined to think about it.  Are the long odds to with a billion worth a couple minutes of time and thinking about winning?  I think so, or at least that is what I convinced myself when I filled out my bracket for the contest.  Besides, there are lesser 100k prizes for the best ones who don't pick them all so it isn't as if it is jackpot or nothing.

Meh, the time spent and annyoying telemarketers (worse because I tend to be out of my local are and if I answer that is an instant 30cent charge) and text messages probably aren't worth a negligible chance at winning either the half billion dollars or 100k.

Local Area?  Is your cel plan from grandfathered from 1997?  I havent heard that term in forever.


If I am outside of the local calling area (ie if a phone call from my home to the location would be long distance) then incoming calls are treated as long distance.
 
2014-03-19 06:22:02 PM

dywed88: elguerodiablo: dywed88: Daedalus27: Ok the odds are incredibly long.  We get that.  We probably don't get how long, but there it is.  However what are the costs involved in entry.  A minute to fill out the form, a couple minutes to make picks if your inclined to think about it.  Are the long odds to with a billion worth a couple minutes of time and thinking about winning?  I think so, or at least that is what I convinced myself when I filled out my bracket for the contest.  Besides, there are lesser 100k prizes for the best ones who don't pick them all so it isn't as if it is jackpot or nothing.

Meh, the time spent and annyoying telemarketers (worse because I tend to be out of my local are and if I answer that is an instant 30cent charge) and text messages probably aren't worth a negligible chance at winning either the half billion dollars or 100k.

Local Area?  Is your cel plan from grandfathered from 1997?  I havent heard that term in forever.

If I am outside of the local calling area (ie if a phone call from my home to the location would be long distance) then incoming calls are treated as long distance.


Just made me nostalgic.  I worked in Telecom for a long time and wasn't aware that was still a thing.  As far as I knew those plans died 10+ years ago.
 
2014-03-19 07:07:27 PM

elguerodiablo: dywed88: elguerodiablo: dywed88: Daedalus27: Ok the odds are incredibly long.  We get that.  We probably don't get how long, but there it is.  However what are the costs involved in entry.  A minute to fill out the form, a couple minutes to make picks if your inclined to think about it.  Are the long odds to with a billion worth a couple minutes of time and thinking about winning?  I think so, or at least that is what I convinced myself when I filled out my bracket for the contest.  Besides, there are lesser 100k prizes for the best ones who don't pick them all so it isn't as if it is jackpot or nothing.

Meh, the time spent and annyoying telemarketers (worse because I tend to be out of my local are and if I answer that is an instant 30cent charge) and text messages probably aren't worth a negligible chance at winning either the half billion dollars or 100k.

Local Area?  Is your cel plan from grandfathered from 1997?  I havent heard that term in forever.

If I am outside of the local calling area (ie if a phone call from my home to the location would be long distance) then incoming calls are treated as long distance.

Just made me nostalgic.  I worked in Telecom for a long time and wasn't aware that was still a thing.  As far as I knew those plans died 10+ years ago.


I will assume it is just as a result of shiatty Canadian telecoms. Plan was enterred less than 2 years ago.
 
2014-03-19 09:52:44 PM
A bit worse than the odds I'd initially calculated, but that makes sense.  The win probabilities I used were based on a random distribution of possible opponents at each step, whereas a perfect bracket would require the strongest available teams to face each other in each game.  Louisville versus Florida would necessarily be more competitive than Louisville versus a random team from Florida to Albany.

Still, it's a hell of a lot better than random chance.
 
2014-03-19 10:52:50 PM
I wouldn't be surprised if there were multiple winners. Unlikely, yes, but the game isn't purely random and there are very clever people out there addicted to sports.
 
2014-03-20 08:03:03 AM

llortcM_yllort: IlGreven: Mine are actually 0, because I refuse to give out my cell number, which I don't have to give my bank.

fark Yahoo.
fark Quicken.
fark Warren Buffett if this is how he made his money.

It's trivially easy to find people's cell phone numbers now a days.  Even then, before cell phones, most people's phone numbers could be easily found through something called a phone book.


It's not that it couldn't be found.  It's that my bank doesn't need it to verify me. Why should Yahoo? They have my e-mail, my address, and my home phone from this contest. They don't need any more verification.
 
2014-03-20 09:34:27 AM

yakmans_dad: I wouldn't be surprised if there were multiple winners. Unlikely, yes, but the game isn't purely random and there are very clever people out there addicted to sports.


You realize in the 20 years or so that espn has been running their bracket contest, no one has had a perfect bracket, right?
 
2014-03-20 11:15:45 AM

The Flexecutioner: I'm pretty sure they have no expectations whatsoever of having to pay it.


encrypted-tbn1.gstatic.com
 
2014-03-20 09:10:01 PM

dartben: yakmans_dad: I wouldn't be surprised if there were multiple winners. Unlikely, yes, but the game isn't purely random and there are very clever people out there addicted to sports.

You realize in the 20 years or so that espn has been running their bracket contest, no one has had a perfect bracket, right?


Fine.
 
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