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(Washington Post)   Pro-Russian forces peacefully request control of Ukrainian naval base. Just kidding, they ram a vehicle through the gate and take it by force   (washingtonpost.com) divider line 73
    More: Followup, Ukrainian, Russians, Russian forces, naval base, Prime Minister of Ukraine, Sevastopol, Black Sea Fleet, Russian flag  
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2753 clicks; posted to Main » on 19 Mar 2014 at 2:33 PM (40 weeks ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2014-03-19 03:33:12 PM  

BolloxReader: I just don't understand why the Russians are considered so much better than the Ukrainian military. They couldn't deal with Chechnya the first time, they had to retreat and go in a second time. Their equipment and training is so poor that they warned the world years ago that the only way they could win a war against any half-competent military was to go nuclear-- their conventional forces fared horribly in war games.



The Russians have been spending money upgrading training/equipment since they took that beating.  From I'm reading the hardware would be roughly equal in quality as both aren't that whoopie.  The Ukranians are supposedly better trained and that will give them a leg up.  The Russian advantage comes down to sheer numbers as they have more of everything and a lot more.  The general consensus seems to be Russia will Zerg rush if it goes to a shooting war.
 
2014-03-19 03:34:16 PM  

Acravius: Everything about this move seems so dumb, and the Ukranians, in not fighting back, make the Russians look more foolish.

Now Russia has to administrate, defend, police, build infrastructure, and take on all of the costs of Crimea.

Before, Russia  could use everything "in kind" (lower prices on Natural Gas and Oil) as a payment for their "Lease" of access to the Black Sea Fleet of rather limited value in the first place as Turkey is a NATO member, and can close the Bosphorous any time it wants, as it now has in reaction to this activity.

Now Russia has to administrate, defend, police, build infrastructure, and take on all of the costs of Crimea.

The cost of this Crimea adventure could be as much as 3 Billion dollars US a year.
http://www.cbsatlanta.com/story/25015873/what-annexing-crimea-will-c os t-russias-government
The average income of Crimea is $5,000 US equivalent, and most of the people living there are pensioners, who used to be supported by the Ukrainian government, but will now have to supported by the Russian government.
No one from Ukraine will come to Crimea for the Summer, as they used to, and so even less revenue will be coming in to support the Crimean economy.  Then more subsidies will be needed.

The whole thing seems so dumb and dangerous, it is absurd that it is even happening and no visible benefits to Russia come out of the process.


They also want the Russian citizens.   Russia is circling the demographic drain.  Their people are not having any children and many of the young are leaving for the west. The population is in decline so adding 2m more Russians can help stem the tide a little. The larger the base population, the greater the hope that they can stabilize the population at least at replacement levels instead of a steady decline.
 
2014-03-19 03:36:44 PM  
Did they bring a flag?
 
2014-03-19 03:36:48 PM  

smoky2010: Mell of a Hess: Fark_Guy_Rob: Crimea declared independence.

Just like Texas did from Mexico.
Just like the US did from England.
Just like the South did from the North.

I don't see much difference.

None of those entities had atomic capabilities.

Also, none of them were fed a constant diet of propaganda and BS, full of lines and slander


Not at all.  Propaganda was just as much apart of things back in the day.  In a lot of ways it was easier to spread lies/rumors given how slow communication channels were.
http://www.gilderlehrman.org/history-by-era/war-for-independence/res ou rces/revolutionary-propaganda-persuasion-and-colonial-suppo

Long before the declaration of independence, a small minority of people started talking of independence.  The overwhelming majority did not.  The colonists viewed themselves as British.  There was a huge public image/propaganda campaign to help sway the locals into gearing up for war.

"In order to encourage support, speeches and letters were published outlining the colonial grievances in pamphlets or broadsides. Through these documents, colonists attempted to create democratic change within their political structure "
 
2014-03-19 03:36:52 PM  
2.bp.blogspot.com
 
2014-03-19 03:38:05 PM  

Acravius: Everything about this move seems so dumb, and the Ukranians, in not fighting back, make the Russians look more foolish.

Now Russia has to administrate, defend, police, build infrastructure, and take on all of the costs of Crimea.

Before, Russia could use everything "in kind" (lower prices on Natural Gas and Oil) as a payment for their "Lease" of access to the Black Sea Fleet of rather limited value in the first place as Turkey is a NATO member, and can close the Bosphorous any time it wants, as it now has in reaction to this activity.

Now Russia has to administrate, defend, police, build infrastructure, and take on all of the costs of Crimea.

The cost of this Crimea adventure could be as much as 3 Billion dollars US a year.
http://www.cbsatlanta.com/story/25015873/what-annexing-crimea-will-c os t-russias-government
The average income of Crimea is $5,000 US equivalent, and most of the people living there are pensioners, who used to be supported by the Ukrainian government, but will now have to supported by the Russian government.
No one from Ukraine will come to Crimea for the Summer, as they used to, and so even less revenue will be coming in to support the Crimean economy. Then more subsidies will be needed.

The whole thing seems so dumb and dangerous, it is absurd that it is even happening and no visible benefits to Russia come out of the process.


Better to be Debt slave to European Central Bank?  Hope they enjoy their austerity measures and unpayable loans.
 
2014-03-19 03:44:43 PM  

OnlyM3: [2.bp.blogspot.com image 400x306]


Commie.
 
2014-03-19 03:46:42 PM  
I thought Russia had a Naval Base in Ukraine, is this a seperate Ukrainian facility?
 
2014-03-19 03:48:00 PM  
FTFA:
"Russia thinks Ukraine is weak," Filipchuk said. "Russia thinks the world is weak and frightened."


Uh oh!
images.yuku.com
 
2014-03-19 03:53:29 PM  

btfoom: but, but, the earlier story said that Putin and Russia were losing all over the place in Europe, especially the Ukraine.


Turkey is the real power that controls the Black Sea.
 
2014-03-19 04:13:41 PM  
The Ukraine is weak.
 
2014-03-19 04:28:06 PM  

flynn80: I thought Russia had a Naval Base in Ukraine, is this a seperate Ukrainian facility?


Yes.  When the Soviet Union broke up, since the Black Sea Fleet was located in Ukraine, Russia and Ukraine agreed to split the fleet and Ukraine agreed to offer Russia a 30 year lease on the port in Crimea for basing purposes in addition to allowing Russian forces associated with the fleet to remain in the Ukraine (that decision is biting them in the ass).  Ukraine actually received two Russian aircraft carriers which they had no use for and sold to China (one of which is the present carrier they are operating their first naval air forces with).  So the area have Russian naval bases and then the Ukrainian naval bases with their portion of the Black Sea fleet.  Presently several Ukrainian naval ships are being blockaded and ordered to surrender, but they haven't agreed to yet.
 
2014-03-19 04:44:44 PM  
@Flynn

It would have been better if the Yanakovitch government hadn't embezzled 70 Billion from Ukraine
It would have been better if Yanakovitch hadn't negotiated an agreement with both sides of the Ukranian government and uprising, and then run off to Russia the day after.

It would have been better for Russia, not to have to expend 170 Billion in currency reserves to stabilize the Ruble.
It would have been better for Russia, not to have their borrowing rate go from 5% to 7% in the international markets upon taking these actions/measures.

Ukraine is poor and needs IMF "help". (Yes I know that the IMF is not a helpful agency, its more of an Stick and bigger stick enforcement agency.)

Russia is also diminished in many economic aspects, Putin looks to be the foolish jerk, and now the Russian government has a new area where only 58% of the Crimean population, maybe, wanted to sort of go back to Russia, but it's probably really about 35-40% who really wanted to go back. This could go from Russian "control" to a new "Area of Resistance" as soon as those thousands of Russian troops are withdrawn. Finally, Russia now has to build all the infrastructure and subsidize Aeroflot's prices to get tourism back to Crimea in time to support what was already a moderate to poor situation in the first place.

Where is the winning in this series of events for anyone? It is just so dumb, at every level.
 
2014-03-19 04:52:16 PM  
Just a little bit of added information.

That "58% Russians" is from a census of 2001. A lot of Russians, while having Ukrainian ethnic roots, are still Russians in spirit and mentality, but self-identify as Ukrainian because it's kind of trendy, to trace down your ethnic roots. So of course they would call themselves "Ukrainians" for census; doesn't mean they are actually Ukrainians.

Same census determined 78% naming their native language Russian, 10% Ukrainian and 11% Tatars. Since 2001 demographics have changed - Russian percentage have grown through immigration (a lot of Russian military and fleet retire in Crimea), so we don't know actual present numbers.
 
2014-03-19 04:57:39 PM  
Now Turkey is claiming that since Crimea declared independence, by treaty is legally must revert to Turkish control, and they will blockade Russian access to the Strait of Bosporus.  There goes Russia's access to the Mediterranean .

I just can't see how they can possibly expect to come out of this thing ahead.
 
2014-03-19 05:08:32 PM  
I guess the strongly worded letters failed.
 
2014-03-19 05:22:14 PM  

udhq: Now Turkey is claiming that since Crimea declared independence, by treaty is legally must revert to Turkish control, and they will blockade Russian access to the Strait of Bosporus.  There goes Russia's access to the Mediterranean .

I just can't see how they can possibly expect to come out of this thing ahead.


I can't find jack shiat about it closing to Russia.
 
2014-03-19 06:10:22 PM  

Intrepid00: I can't find jack shiat about it closing to Russia.


There is a rumor from one of Turkish newspapers that if Russia will mistreat Tatars in Crimea, under Russian rule, then Turkey may even close the Bosphorus to Russian military and commercial ships.

It's just a rumor from one of newspapers, and only if Russia mistreats Tatars, not just captures Crimea or does anything in the rest of the Ukraine.
 
2014-03-19 07:54:20 PM  
Looks like the Ukrainians are ready to accept defeat in Crimea.
 
2014-03-19 07:56:12 PM  
So the Ukranian plan for handling this is to just surrender peacefully every time Russia makes a move.

Why even bother with the rhetoric?  Pull out and go home if you arent going to do your jobs, you giant farking pussies.
 
2014-03-19 09:08:38 PM  

smoky2010: SecretAgentWoman: That's a pretty pathetic military base if so easily overwhelmed.

They say that the Ukrainians are not fighting back on purpose. They are taking the high road, supposedly, waiting for a political solution.

I think it's time for them to start fighting back. Although it is really a lost cause as the Russians have better weapons, training, and numbers than the Ukrainians.


The Ukrainian military is actually pretty strong.

Their army is far better trained than Russia's. The size of their military is smaller than Russia's, but still significant..... especially when you consider that Russia's military is spread out, and can't be entirely consolidated, and that Ukraine's military would be defending their own territory.

If this turns into a full shooting war, Ukraine will get financial and material support from the West..... And that should be enough.

Russia is just not that strong anymore. Their military is mostly poorly trained conscripted soldiers.
 
2014-03-19 09:30:03 PM  

sethen320: Dumb question: What if they did get into a shooting war?  Would it really be WW3 or just another regional squabble?  Thoughts?


I would think that WW3 would not happen unless Russia started knocking over whole Governments with military force (Which would be awfully difficult if the West is propping up the Government they are attacking), or if the West invaded Russia..... which will never happen, they nave nukes.

I imagine that even if Russia continues to take over pieces of land, they will eventually wind up starting a shooting war.... And though that will be a huge headache for the West, I doubt that the West will need to go straight to WW3 in order to stop them there.
 
2014-03-20 05:23:30 AM  
Am I the only one that is wondering what the hell is going to happen with Chernobyl?
 
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