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(War on the Rocks)   Putin is playing chess in Crimea... and losing   (warontherocks.com) divider line 240
    More: Interesting, Vladimir Putin, Crimean, Black Sea Fleet, al Assad, satellite state, Warsaw Pact, Cold War, Russian Bear  
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13200 clicks; posted to Main » on 19 Mar 2014 at 10:23 AM (26 weeks ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2014-03-19 10:44:04 AM

netcentric: A former Marine's Marine Core blog....

Nothing better than the Core's view of Foreign Policy.


So it's "a former Marine's blog" when it doesn't suit your worldview?
 
2014-03-19 10:44:24 AM

Yakk: Getting everything you want = a loss now?


KAVORKA: How is he losing?


I can tell you two didn't RTFA.
 
2014-03-19 10:44:38 AM

LordJiro: Never interrupt your enemy while he's making a mistake.


Yep. Obama's a terrible president, has no respect for the rule of law, and has expanded on all of the worst evils of the Bush administration, but there's nothing he can do besides minor sanctions to make this any better.
 
2014-03-19 10:45:53 AM

Halli: cirby: Peter von Nostrand:
He has legions of Republicans as fans,

...according to leftist Democrats, who can't ever seem to find any actual legions...

Yeah this hasn't been a talking point on FOX News or anything.


Be honest, how much Fox News have you watched since the Crimean invasion?  And why?
 
2014-03-19 10:46:21 AM

LordJiro: Russia's economy cannot handle serious sanctions from the EU/US, let alone a world war. Why should Obama do anything while Putin throws money down a hole just to wave his dick around? Never interrupt your enemy while he's making a mistake.


Slaves2Darkness: Yes. The whole reason he invaded Crimea is that Russia can't have NATO so dam close. Essentially the same reason that the US has punished Cuba for 60 years is the reason that Russia is invading Crimea. Secondly Russia's economy is taking a beating. If the US turns up the economic pressure on Russia all it will take is time before Putin folds or is replaced.


Isn't the monkeywrench in all that the fact that Putin/Russia basically control the European continent's natural gas supply?

So we can sanction Russia, and risk them either jacking up the price on or simply stopping the NG supply altogether. It's my understanding (admittedly thin) that it'd take the US several weeks to a month at least to make up that lost supply.
 
2014-03-19 10:46:44 AM

FlashHarry: Peter von Nostrand: He has legions of Republicans as fans, so he always has that going for him. Hell, I'm surprised he didn't win the last cpac straw poll

i wonder what reagan would say if you told him that republicans were praising a russian dictator while attacking our president at the same time.


He'd probably love it.  Reagan was a Republican asshole at heart.  His progeny didn't fall far from the tree.  The only difference is that he was somewhat pragmatic in governance, if super overheated in rhetoric.
 
2014-03-19 10:46:49 AM
Since we're all armchair experts on the intricacies of foreign affairs, here's my $0.02:

Putin is hoping he can wait out the world's outrage without anyone firing a shot. He basically annexed parts of Georgia because the world stopped caring, this is more serious, but not very different. As long as he can withstand the international outrage, and as long as nobody dies, the western part of Ukraine gets to side with the west, which is what it wanted, and Russia gets the Crimea, which helps Putin with his apparent dream of reforming the Soviet Union. The question is how much will Ukraine fight for its majority Russian populace? Because if they stop caring, the rest of the world isn't going to care for them. If Ukraine wants to start a shooting war over it, I think Putin has to quickly withdraw, because then it'll be much more costly than he is willing to endure.
 
2014-03-19 10:48:02 AM
Moar liek playing chest, amirite?
 
2014-03-19 10:48:08 AM

doyner: The funny thing is that "the will of the people" across the world is straining existing borders of nation-states, leaving them succeptible to change to fit cultural and economic boudaries as opposed to lines on a map. This is a much deeper issue for the world to grapple with than the political theater that orbits around an outdated cold war view.


No! The ONLY thing that matters is a narrative that says Obama is weak, weak, weak!!!!!1!

Because freedom, and furthermore.
 
2014-03-19 10:48:20 AM

LordJiro: Russia's economy cannot handle serious sanctions from the EU/US, let alone a world war. Why should Obama do anything while Putin throws money down a hole just to wave his dick around? Never interrupt your enemy while he's making a mistake.


Pretty much; it's amazing how Republicans/war hawks in general keep beating Obama with the "weak on foreign policy" stick.  Then, something like Bin Laden getting killed happens and they all look at each other and say (in unison) "We farked up here didn't we."

So, memo to the war hawks:  never stick your head into a hungry lion's mouth.
 
2014-03-19 10:48:33 AM

Yakk: Getting everything you want = a loss now?


He got a territory that is going to be a massive money sink, their stock prices have already taken a hit, and he's gonna push other nearby territories towards the EU that much faster.

He's also given the EU a huge imepetus to get off their ass and get their gas from somewhere else.
 
2014-03-19 10:49:10 AM

wxboy: LordJiro: Russia's economy cannot handle serious sanctions from the EU/US, let alone a world war. Why should Obama do anything while Putin throws money down a hole just to wave his dick around? Never interrupt your enemy while he's making a mistake.

The question is whether the EU is really willing to go along with such sanctions, at the cost of losing access to Russian oil/gas.  Perhaps it will be more palatable in the short term since winter is coming to a close now, in the hope that the situation can be resolved before the end of the year.


They can drill for their own dam oil and gas, rather than pretend that they are all enviro friendly while buying it all from their enemy.

Same with the rest of Ukraine.  They get ALL of their energy from Russia and then boycott every O&G company that has ever tried to drill.  They are going to end up back in the stone ages very soon where this is going.
 
2014-03-19 10:49:14 AM

FlashHarry: Peter von Nostrand: He has legions of Republicans as fans, so he always has that going for him. Hell, I'm surprised he didn't win the last cpac straw poll

i wonder what reagan would say if you told him that republicans were praising a russian dictator while attacking our president at the same time.


"Help me out of this box, I can't breathe in here. Help, let me out."
 
2014-03-19 10:50:23 AM

JK47: LordJiro:

Russia's economy cannot handle serious sanctions from the EU/US, let alone a world war. Why should Obama do anything while Putin throws money down a hole just to wave his dick around? Never interrupt your enemy while he's making a mistake.


Yeah, comprehensive trade sanctions against Russia would flatten their economy.  Natural Gas exports alone comprise nearly half of the Russian GDP.


Also:  Wouldn't be surprised if Obama is coordinating with the EU on a plan to make up for a potential loss of NG from Russia.
 
2014-03-19 10:51:04 AM

Gunny Highway: Just because

[i.kinja-img.com image 636x948]


Good enough for me.  I started to save it but couldn't come up with an indicative name.
 
2014-03-19 10:51:18 AM
Has Obama started working on the bomber gap yet?
 
2014-03-19 10:51:55 AM

KAVORKA: How is he losing?


He's stuck with Crimea?
 
2014-03-19 10:53:27 AM

QuesoDelicioso: KAVORKA: How is he losing?

Maybe read the article? Short answer: NATO and the EU have whittled down his sphere of influence to the point that he has no choice but to undertake this conflict. While he does retain a goodly amount of residual strength, he is not acting from a position of strength.

Russia's economy is taking a beating


No. In fact, what's the opposite?

It's *Surging* on the fact that EU and the US are basically conducting business as normal.

Putin basically said "Your move, West," and we apparently decided to pass.
 
2014-03-19 10:54:38 AM

Rapmaster2000: Once Putin takes over all of Europe


You obviously have no understanding of the history of the USSR and Russia for the last 25 years.
 
2014-03-19 10:54:49 AM

stevetherobot: FlashHarry: Peter von Nostrand: He has legions of Republicans as fans, so he always has that going for him. Hell, I'm surprised he didn't win the last cpac straw poll

i wonder what reagan would say if you told him that republicans were praising a russian dictator while attacking our president at the same time.

"Help me out of this box, I can't breathe in here. Help, let me out."


img.fark.net
 
2014-03-19 10:54:51 AM

FLMountainMan: Be honest, how much Fox News have you watched since the Crimean invasion? And why?


No one watches Fox News unless they wish to become dumber.
 
2014-03-19 10:55:10 AM
Putin's playing Rock, Scissors, Paper; we're playing Tiddly-WInks.
No, Putin's playing Bocci Ball, We're playing Scrabble.
Wait, no, PUTIN's playing Parcheesi , we're playing with our genitals.
 
2014-03-19 10:55:18 AM

Rwa2play: netcentric: A former Marine's Marine Core blog....

Nothing better than the Core's view of Foreign Policy.

So it's "a former Marine's blog" when it doesn't suit your worldview?



A meme isn't as funny if I have to highlight it or point it out to you.

This isn't the Harvard debate club.   Don't ovethink things with perceptions of someones 'worldview'.

Welcome to Fark.
 
2014-03-19 10:56:12 AM

JK47: LordJiro:

Russia's economy cannot handle serious sanctions from the EU/US, let alone a world war. Why should Obama do anything while Putin throws money down a hole just to wave his dick around? Never interrupt your enemy while he's making a mistake.


Yeah, comprehensive trade sanctions against Russia would flatten their economy.  Natural Gas exports alone comprise nearly half of the Russian GDP.


Yes yes. By all means Europe should threaten to stop buying gas. I wonder why Europe hasn't already fixed this obvious oversight. They should get right on it. I mean really. You would think they would have already done such a simple thing.
 
2014-03-19 10:56:24 AM

Yakk: Getting everything you want = a loss now?


Maybe he only got 98% of what he wanted....
 
2014-03-19 10:56:29 AM

Felgraf: Yakk: Getting everything you want = a loss now?

He got a territory that is going to be a massive money sink, their stock prices have already taken a hit, and he's gonna push other nearby territories towards the EU that much faster.

He's also given the EU a huge imepetus to get off their ass and get their gas from somewhere else.


Canada will be thrilled!
 
2014-03-19 10:56:46 AM

TheZorker: QuesoDelicioso: KAVORKA: How is he losing?

Maybe read the article? Short answer: NATO and the EU have whittled down his sphere of influence to the point that he has no choice but to undertake this conflict. While he does retain a goodly amount of residual strength, he is not acting from a position of strength.

Russia's economy is taking a beating

No. In fact, what's the opposite?

It's *Surging* on the fact that EU and the US are basically conducting business as normal.

Putin basically said "Your move, West," and we apparently decided to pass.


Taking a beating?  Surging?

How is it possible that two people look at the same information and one comes up with "taking a beating" and the other "surging?"
 
2014-03-19 10:58:50 AM

brandent: JK47: LordJiro:

Russia's economy cannot handle serious sanctions from the EU/US, let alone a world war. Why should Obama do anything while Putin throws money down a hole just to wave his dick around? Never interrupt your enemy while he's making a mistake.


Yeah, comprehensive trade sanctions against Russia would flatten their economy.  Natural Gas exports alone comprise nearly half of the Russian GDP.

Yes yes. By all means Europe should threaten to stop buying gas. I wonder why Europe hasn't already fixed this obvious oversight. They should get right on it. I mean really. You would think they would have already done such a simple thing.


Yes. Russia is the only exporter of oil/gas on the planet.
 
2014-03-19 10:59:14 AM

cirby: Peter von Nostrand:
He has legions of Republicans as fans,

...according to leftist Democrats, who can't ever seem to find any actual legions...


how many is enough for you ?
 
2014-03-19 10:59:26 AM

brandent: JK47: LordJiro:

Russia's economy cannot handle serious sanctions from the EU/US, let alone a world war. Why should Obama do anything while Putin throws money down a hole just to wave his dick around? Never interrupt your enemy while he's making a mistake.


Yeah, comprehensive trade sanctions against Russia would flatten their economy.  Natural Gas exports alone comprise nearly half of the Russian GDP.

Yes yes. By all means Europe should threaten to stop buying gas. I wonder why Europe hasn't already fixed this obvious oversight. They should get right on it. I mean really. You would think they would have already done such a simple thing.


If the EU and the U.S. can move to quickly close that Iran deal and lift those sanctions, new oil will be flowing into the market and they can pivot to somewhat cut off their dependency on russia. then again, if I was the Iranian negotiator, I'd anticipate this potential move and try to leverage better conditions for my country, stalling the negotiations and trying to get the most from both the West and the ruskies.
 
2014-03-19 10:59:47 AM

Anayalator: KAVORKA: How is he losing?

He's plaing Czechers


Does he drive a Yugo?
 
2014-03-19 11:00:01 AM
He's lost both knights and a rook, while his opponents have lost two pawns.


Or something like that.
 
2014-03-19 11:00:08 AM

svanmeter: Obama fiddled while the Ukraine burned.


In your opinion, what should he be doing?
 
2014-03-19 11:00:20 AM

netcentric: Rwa2play: netcentric: A former Marine's Marine Core blog....

Nothing better than the Core's view of Foreign Policy.

So it's "a former Marine's blog" when it doesn't suit your worldview?


A meme isn't as funny if I have to highlight it or point it out to you.


I can see that; I can also see that meme should've been retired years ago.
 
2014-03-19 11:00:28 AM
Alternate Title: "A Chess club Nerd's attempt to explain global politics using the only way he knows."
 
2014-03-19 11:01:04 AM

Hector Remarkable: Putin's playing Rock, Scissors, Paper; we're playing Tiddly-WInks.
No, Putin's playing Bocci Ball, We're playing Scrabble.
Wait, no, PUTIN's playing Parcheesi , we're playing with our genitals.


Well then, we are obviously winning!
 
2014-03-19 11:02:46 AM
Tacticians (like the author of that post) think that any hole requires that you insert your junk.  Strategists will make a hole, put a meat grinder behind it, and let nature take its course.
Putin understands Americans better than Americans understand Russians.   He has set this up so that as long as he doesn't lose, he wins.  Even if we "win", the US and NATO looks ineffective and like a poor choice as an ally because Ukraine was "invaded" in the first place.  And if he leaves, he can claim the moral high ground, because of the inconsistency and selectively of NATO and US actions (cf. Kosovo and the territorial integrity of Serbia).  If Puton just sits tight, keeps a Crimean face on the tactical action there, and waits, he wins.  If we use military force, then we are sticking our dicks in the whirling blades.
 
2014-03-19 11:04:01 AM
"Putin is compelled to carry water for the lisping sociopath Bashar al Assad..."

Okay, that was beautiful. I like his analysis. But I am really worried about the population there. They have run out of cash. The tourism industry (all they have) is dead. And the Tatars are in serious danger. Russia doesn't have the money to support Crimea as a client state and they get nothing out of it. Putin's just insane and posturing for no good reason. Like when he shot a drugged and caged tiger so he could pose with it.
 
2014-03-19 11:05:16 AM

TheZorker: QuesoDelicioso: KAVORKA: How is he losing?

Maybe read the article? Short answer: NATO and the EU have whittled down his sphere of influence to the point that he has no choice but to undertake this conflict. While he does retain a goodly amount of residual strength, he is not acting from a position of strength.

Russia's economy is taking a beating

No. In fact, what's the opposite?

It's *Surging* on the fact that EU and the US are basically conducting business as normal.

Putin basically said "Your move, West," and we apparently decided to pass.


You are incorrect, their stock market has lost BILLIONS, which his government has had to pump into his failing economy, and the sanctions haven't even hit yet.
 
2014-03-19 11:06:27 AM

Livinglush: Rapmaster2000: Once Putin takes over all of Europe

You obviously have no understanding of the history of the USSR and Russia for the last 25 years.


You need to go back a lot more than 25 years to really get this one.  If you don't appreciate the goals of Пётр Алексеевич, you don't understand what Putin is after.
 
2014-03-19 11:06:36 AM

lilbjorn: svanmeter: Obama fiddled while the Ukraine burned.

In your opinion, what should he be doing?


Taking notes.
 
2014-03-19 11:06:52 AM

LordJiro: brandent: JK47: LordJiro:

Russia's economy cannot handle serious sanctions from the EU/US, let alone a world war. Why should Obama do anything while Putin throws money down a hole just to wave his dick around? Never interrupt your enemy while he's making a mistake.


Yeah, comprehensive trade sanctions against Russia would flatten their economy.  Natural Gas exports alone comprise nearly half of the Russian GDP.

Yes yes. By all means Europe should threaten to stop buying gas. I wonder why Europe hasn't already fixed this obvious oversight. They should get right on it. I mean really. You would think they would have already done such a simple thing.

Yes. Russia is the only exporter of oil/gas on the planet.


As far as Europe is concerned, it's them and Norway.  They don't have the import facilities to accept gas from anywhere else.

Oil can sort of be found elsewhere.  It's not actually fungible like everyone thinks it is.  And Russia is a MAJOR exporter of oil (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_oil_exports) good luck absorbing that supply shortage with prices alone.  They will go through the roof.

Refusing to purchase Russia's Oil & Gas would be so devastating as to not even really consider it an option.  Energy is their Queen.  Not Crimea like the article would like people to believe.  They have most of Europe, and especially Ukraine by the nut sack.  Ukraine has almost no production of their own and for the last couple of years keeps boycotting anyone who tries to drill on their bland wasteland.
 
2014-03-19 11:07:31 AM
img.fark.net

Medvedev: So, are things going well on the Western Front?

Putin:
Oh yes, very well. So far we've:
Lost the Ukraine
Invaded a country
Violated treaty agreements
Now Turkey is ready to lock our fleet up in the Black Sea
The world is freezing bank accounts, cutting trade
Ukraine and Europe will be buying a lot more fuel from the west
and nobody believes Russia will honor it's agreements anymore

In return we occupy an island the size of a postage stamp

Medvedev:
We really need to talk, Vlad.
 
2014-03-19 11:07:36 AM

Laobaojun: Even if we "win", the US and NATO looks ineffective and like a poor choice as an ally because Ukraine was "invaded" in the first place.


This is silly.

"I punched you, and even though I need a doctor now, everyone knows that your face's weakness is fists. HAHAHA, I win."?
 
2014-03-19 11:09:26 AM

Colour_out_of_Space: cirby: Peter von Nostrand:
He has legions of Republicans as fans,

...according to leftist Democrats, who can't ever seem to find any actual legions...

how many is enough for you ?


you know, i too, was wondering where all of this suppose love of putin from the right was.
Thank you.
/These people are bat shiat crazy to like Putin.
 
2014-03-19 11:09:42 AM
"It started with Benghazi Georgia. "When you kill Americans annex your neighbors and nobody pays a price, you invite this kind of aggression. #Ukraine."

-Lindsey Graham
 
2014-03-19 11:10:32 AM

TheManMythLegend: Peter von Nostrand: He has legions of Republicans as fans, so he always has that going for him. Hell, I'm surprised he didn't win the last cpac straw poll


I thought it was republicans who said that Russia was the greatest geopolitical threat during the debates?


Shush. Russia is our good friend. We pushed the big red "Reset" button on our relationship when Obama sent Hillary to Putin. With a literal big red button to pretend push.

That was how Obama told Putin that we were his good buddy now. Cause we're friends, and we trust him
 
2014-03-19 11:10:47 AM

FLMountainMan: FlashHarry: Peter von Nostrand: He has legions of Republicans as fans, so he always has that going for him. Hell, I'm surprised he didn't win the last cpac straw poll

i wonder what reagan would say if you told him that republicans were praising a russian dictator while attacking our president at the same time.

He'd ask why there were so many strawmen in front of him.


We're assuming that the Reagan we're talking about was before the Alzheimers.
 
2014-03-19 11:11:00 AM
You are incorrect, their stock market has lost BILLIONS, which his government has had to pump into his failing economy, and the sanctions haven't even hit yet.

Hey this reminds me of someplace, hmmmm.
 
2014-03-19 11:11:42 AM

Rwa2play: netcentric: Rwa2play: netcentric: A former Marine's Marine Core blog....

Nothing better than the Core's view of Foreign Policy.

So it's "a former Marine's blog" when it doesn't suit your worldview?


A meme isn't as funny if I have to highlight it or point it out to you.

I can see that; I can also see that meme should've been retired years ago.


It's the Marine Corpse. Get it right.
 
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