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(USA Today)   Inflation remains relatively tame, except for food, where things are starting to go crazy. Good thing you don't need that every day, right?   (usatoday.com ) divider line
    More: Obvious, personal budget, food prices, inflation  
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1068 clicks; posted to Business » on 19 Mar 2014 at 7:50 AM (2 years ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2014-03-19 06:52:31 AM  
static6.businessinsider.com
 
2014-03-19 07:45:29 AM  
 
2014-03-19 08:00:18 AM  
Wouldn't increased food cost be the expected outcome from reduced farm subsidies?
 
2014-03-19 08:20:14 AM  

Muta: Wouldn't increased food cost be the expected outcome from reduced farm subsidies?


And drought in the West.
 
2014-03-19 08:24:28 AM  
The price of corn is off by 40% from 2010, and wheat isn't much better but falling commodities don't make headlines.

Meat is where you're going to get killed this year with the drought induced cattle selloffs of the past several years.  Rising beef prices push consumers down the meat price chain and that increases the prices on cheaper meats too.  It's temporary and logical.  Don't panic.

But then, I live in a country where nobody knows the difference between inflation and CPI so prepare for an onslaught of "inflation is out of control" articles.
 
2014-03-19 08:25:04 AM  

Muta: Wouldn't increased food cost be the expected outcome from reduced farm subsidies?


Farm subsidies reduce supply. So not necessarily. You can imagine all sorts of complicated things happening, but my bet is food prices would drop, eventually.
 
2014-03-19 08:27:25 AM  

AMonkey'sUncle: Muta: Wouldn't increased food cost be the expected outcome from reduced farm subsidies?

And drought in the West.


Seriously.

The crops that are jumping the most are the ones that are the least effected by subsidies.

Corn and soybean prices are falling right now, despite subsidy cuts!
 
2014-03-19 08:31:12 AM  

dumbobruni: AMonkey'sUncle: Muta: Wouldn't increased food cost be the expected outcome from reduced farm subsidies?

And drought in the West.

Seriously.

The crops that are jumping the most are the ones that are the least effected by subsidies.

Corn and soybean prices are falling right now, despite subsidy cuts!


Well, wheat got a jump the last few weeks on Ukraine news (for those who don't know, Ukraine is "the breadbasket of Europe), but that should return to a fundamentals driven number over the next year.
 
2014-03-19 08:35:34 AM  
Food prices rose 0.4% in February

EVERYBODY PANIC
 
2014-03-19 08:35:37 AM  
I've been noticing it with produce. Our grocery seems to not be passing it on much with meat. But the fruits and veggies are killing me.

The farmer's market will start up soon, thank goodness.
 
2014-03-19 08:42:09 AM  
"Droughts, unusually cold winter weather, rising exports and a virus outbreak in the hog population are among the causes of food inflation, which is expected to accelerate in 2014. "

Thanks Obama.
 
2014-03-19 08:43:16 AM  
Milk.The average price of a gallon of milk was $3.56 last month, up from $3.46 in October. The main reason: a surge in exports to China and other Asian nations

WTF? I thought those folks were supposed to be lactose intolerant.
 
2014-03-19 08:45:36 AM  
Try sardines and cardboard. All the staples you'll need.
 
2014-03-19 08:46:45 AM  

ginandbacon: I've been noticing it with produce. Our grocery seems to not be passing it on much with meat. But the fruits and veggies are killing me.

The farmer's market will start up soon, thank goodness.


Given it's mid-march, produce is probably a bit pricey on account of most fruit and veg being about as far out of season as possible.

Unless you're posting from the Southern Hemisphere that is.
 
2014-03-19 08:47:26 AM  

Prank Call of Cthulhu: Milk.The average price of a gallon of milk was $3.56 last month, up from $3.46 in October. The main reason: a surge in exports to China and other Asian nations

WTF? I thought those folks were supposed to be lactose intolerant.


The government has been promoting milk as healthy for quite a while now, because of the calcium.  And it's an aging population...

Plus, there's the possibility that they don't trust anything else they can drink over there.
 
2014-03-19 08:56:04 AM  

Arkanaut: Prank Call of Cthulhu: Milk.The average price of a gallon of milk was $3.56 last month, up from $3.46 in October. The main reason: a surge in exports to China and other Asian nations

WTF? I thought those folks were supposed to be lactose intolerant.

The government has been promoting milk as healthy for quite a while now, because of the calcium.  And it's an aging population...

Plus, there's the possibility that they don't trust anything else they can drink over there.


And apparently Chinese mothers breastfeed at a lower rate than the global average.

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-feeding-china-dairy-20140315,0 ,5 345274.story#axzz2wPecZEMs
 
2014-03-19 09:04:29 AM  

Target Builder: ginandbacon: I've been noticing it with produce. Our grocery seems to not be passing it on much with meat. But the fruits and veggies are killing me.

The farmer's market will start up soon, thank goodness.

Given it's mid-march, produce is probably a bit pricey on account of most fruit and veg being about as far out of season as possible.

Unless you're posting from the Southern Hemisphere that is.


It's not just that--I budget around that rise in winter and buy a lot of winter produce. But this is way worse than a couple of years ago. My food budget has gone over every month for the last year. Two years ago I could come in below budget. And I cook everything from scratch. If we had kids I have no idea what we would do.
 
2014-03-19 09:11:55 AM  

ginandbacon: Target Builder: ginandbacon: I've been noticing it with produce. Our grocery seems to not be passing it on much with meat. But the fruits and veggies are killing me.

The farmer's market will start up soon, thank goodness.

Given it's mid-march, produce is probably a bit pricey on account of most fruit and veg being about as far out of season as possible.

Unless you're posting from the Southern Hemisphere that is.

It's not just that--I budget around that rise in winter and buy a lot of winter produce. But this is way worse than a couple of years ago. My food budget has gone over every month for the last year. Two years ago I could come in below budget. And I cook everything from scratch. If we had kids I have no idea what we would do.


California drought is raising produce prices.  More of it has to be trucked up from Mexico through Nogales.

http://www.mercurynews.com/business/ci_25322583/farm-fork-california -d rought-drive-up-food-prices
 
2014-03-19 09:33:02 AM  

ginandbacon: Target Builder: ginandbacon: I've been noticing it with produce. Our grocery seems to not be passing it on much with meat. But the fruits and veggies are killing me.

The farmer's market will start up soon, thank goodness.

Given it's mid-march, produce is probably a bit pricey on account of most fruit and veg being about as far out of season as possible.

Unless you're posting from the Southern Hemisphere that is.

It's not just that--I budget around that rise in winter and buy a lot of winter produce. But this is way worse than a couple of years ago. My food budget has gone over every month for the last year. Two years ago I could come in below budget. And I cook everything from scratch. If we had kids I have no idea what we would do.


I'd suggest slow roasting them or possibly a crock pot.
 
2014-03-19 09:35:54 AM  

Rapmaster2000: The price of corn is off by 40% from 2010, and wheat isn't much better but falling commodities don't make headlines.

Meat is where you're going to get killed this year with the drought induced cattle selloffs of the past several years.  Rising beef prices push consumers down the meat price chain and that increases the prices on cheaper meats too.  It's temporary and logical.  Don't panic.

But then, I live in a country where nobody knows the difference between inflation and CPI so prepare for an onslaught of "inflation is out of control" articles.


It's not just the drought, although that certainly played a large role. When corn started hitting ridiculous prices, a lot of producers around here either reduced or eliminated their herds. It was a lot more profitable to sell the cows, rip up the pastures and plant corn than it was to keep the cows and buy corn for feed. There has been so much grassland broken around here to plant corn over the last 10 years that it makes me almost want to cry. That's not a trend that it going to reverse itself overnight, no matter what corn and soybean prices do.
 
2014-03-19 09:41:03 AM  

Rapmaster2000: ginandbacon: Target Builder: ginandbacon: I've been noticing it with produce. Our grocery seems to not be passing it on much with meat. But the fruits and veggies are killing me.

The farmer's market will start up soon, thank goodness.

Given it's mid-march, produce is probably a bit pricey on account of most fruit and veg being about as far out of season as possible.

Unless you're posting from the Southern Hemisphere that is.

It's not just that--I budget around that rise in winter and buy a lot of winter produce. But this is way worse than a couple of years ago. My food budget has gone over every month for the last year. Two years ago I could come in below budget. And I cook everything from scratch. If we had kids I have no idea what we would do.

California drought is raising produce prices.  More of it has to be trucked up from Mexico through Nogales.

http://www.mercurynews.com/business/ci_25322583/farm-fork-california -d rought-drive-up-food-prices


I've been seeing a lot of stuff from Guatemala. But like the article points out, even simple crops like lettuce are way down in production and much more expensive.

Our farmers market starts up again on April 6th!!!!! The producers always have really good stuff and it's SO much less expensive than the grocery stores. And you can actually talk to the producers to learn about their goods. I love our egg guys. And there's a poultry guy who has the best damn turkey I've ever had. Plus a lady who sells mulefoot hog. OMG. And the lamb guy always throws in extras for me. I once got five pounds of mixed greens for $5. And the squashes last year were gorgeous with ones I'd never cooked with before. And the mushroom lady (so expensive but a little goes a long way.) And REAL honey!

*sigh*
 
2014-03-19 09:44:22 AM  
Honest question: if food inflation is out of control, how is core inflation higher than headline inflation for February (1.57% vs. 1.13%)? Did energy prices crater and I missed it?
 
2014-03-19 09:49:23 AM  

Oliver Twisted: ginandbacon: Target Builder: ginandbacon: I've been noticing it with produce. Our grocery seems to not be passing it on much with meat. But the fruits and veggies are killing me.

The farmer's market will start up soon, thank goodness.

Given it's mid-march, produce is probably a bit pricey on account of most fruit and veg being about as far out of season as possible.

Unless you're posting from the Southern Hemisphere that is.

It's not just that--I budget around that rise in winter and buy a lot of winter produce. But this is way worse than a couple of years ago. My food budget has gone over every month for the last year. Two years ago I could come in below budget. And I cook everything from scratch. If we had kids I have no idea what we would do.

I'd suggest slow roasting them or possibly a crock pot.


Pressure cooker with some aromatics and a nice Chianti? Hmmmm, I wonder what a good side dish would be?
 
2014-03-19 09:52:20 AM  

Grungehamster: if food inflation is out of control


Food inflation isn't out of control. For all the brainless fear-mongering on the topic, food inflation was only 1.4% over the twelve months ending in February while Energy as a whole was down 2.5% mostly due to a sharp drop in Gasoline.

CERTAIN foods got a lot more expensive and will continue to get more expensive in the near future, mostly thanks to the weather, but it's not out of control by any stretch of the imagination. Americans are just so used to their coddled lives that they have absolutely no perspective on consumer prices anymore, so every change north of 1% sets them off.
 
2014-03-19 09:52:32 AM  
The reason the price of food has gone up, is because it has become more expensive.
 
2014-03-19 10:01:38 AM  

skozlaw: Grungehamster: if food inflation is out of control

Food inflation isn't out of control. For all the brainless fear-mongering on the topic, food inflation was only 1.4% over the twelve months ending in February while Energy as a whole was down 2.5% mostly due to a sharp drop in Gasoline.

CERTAIN foods got a lot more expensive and will continue to get more expensive in the near future, mostly thanks to the weather, but it's not out of control by any stretch of the imagination. Americans are just so used to their coddled lives that they have absolutely no perspective on consumer prices anymore, so every change north of 1% sets them off.


HYPERINFLATION!!!1 Plus every smartass who tells you confidently that the number purposefully leaves out food and energy prices which they assure me are sky high even when I explain I'm not giving them the core rate.

It sounds like in this case food inflation is still below core inflation, but they found a couple individual items in the 4% range and said "assuming food continues to climb at that rate things are going to be impossibly costly in the future."
 
2014-03-19 10:21:42 AM  

Grungehamster: It sounds like in this case food inflation is still below core inflation, but they found a couple individual items in the 4% range and said "assuming food continues to climb at that rate things are going to be impossibly costly in the future."


Don't get me wrong, when you look at the current CPI and BLS's projections food as a whole is getting and is going to get more expensive at a pretty good clip, and that's going to cause a lot of problems for lower income households which could ripple, but the way some people are carrying on you'd think we were living in Zimbabwe or something.

These idiots that go on about high inflation have no idea what inflation really is. Let's see what one of them thinks when they're facing down double-digit core inflation in a single month.
 
2014-03-19 10:40:49 AM  

Grungehamster: Honest question: if food inflation is out of control, how is core inflation higher than headline inflation for February (1.57% vs. 1.13%)? Did energy prices crater and I missed it?


Apparently some people believe that inflation is the only thing that can raise prices. Complex economic principles like "supply" and "demand" are beyond them.
 
2014-03-19 10:50:41 AM  
I have a son entering teenage locust stage. This is not good news.
 
2014-03-19 10:58:20 AM  

skozlaw: Americans are just so used to their coddled lives that they have absolutely no perspective on consumer prices anymore, so every change north of 1% sets them off.


True enough, but news organizations who maximize profits through fear-mongering also play a significant role.  I mean, who's freaking out about the 1% rise in food prices, other than the author of TFA?
 
2014-03-19 11:03:43 AM  

skozlaw: These idiots that go on about high inflation have no idea what inflation really is. Let's see what one of them thinks when they're facing down double-digit core inflation in a single month.


That's because very few are old enough to remember the late 70s.  Back when a 14% interest rate on a new car with perfect credit was considered a deal.
 
2014-03-19 11:05:47 AM  

HMS_Blinkin: I mean, who's freaking out about the 1% rise in food prices


The same people who biatch about product size shrink.

/It is a PITA for some of my old family recipes.
 
2014-03-19 11:24:53 AM  
BIGGEST FOOD PIRCE INCREASES

The hell you say?
 
2014-03-19 11:27:06 AM  
Maybe it's time we start eating fake chicken that even fools Alton Brown... and insects.

Yes, I do read a lot of WIRED, why do you ask?
 
2014-03-19 11:28:20 AM  

Tom_Slick: HMS_Blinkin: I mean, who's freaking out about the 1% rise in food prices

The same people who biatch about product size shrink.

/It is a PITA for some of my old family recipes.


Convenient for dieters, though.
 
2014-03-19 11:28:28 AM  

Copperbelly watersnake: I have a son entering teenage locust stage. This is not good news.


I was just remembering how much my brother ate when we were in HS. It was insane. My poor mother had to buy 5 gallons of milk every week. And he would basically eat a full dinner when he got home from school and then eat all of dinner plus seconds in the evening. And he felt so guilty too poor guy. But he couldn't do anything about it. I once caught him eating butter. 6'2" and all muscle. He seemed to be a huge machine for consumption.

Keeping baked potatoes in the fridge ready to heat helps.
 
2014-03-19 11:58:30 AM  

Gaseous Anomaly: Tom_Slick: HMS_Blinkin: I mean, who's freaking out about the 1% rise in food prices

The same people who biatch about product size shrink.

/It is a PITA for some of my old family recipes.

Convenient for dieters, though.


True, and overall I don't care except when I have a recipe that calls for a pint of fresh berries and what is sold at the grocery store is berries in 12 ounce size.
 
2014-03-19 12:10:19 PM  
So while they've got you focused on the price of a candy bar and how you only need to stretch out another 2% they have you standing on a rug that is dragging you back another 6%.

Inflation is running about 8% a year if you know where to look.
 
2014-03-19 12:45:14 PM  
Are pigs infected by that diarrhea inducing virus still glatt kosher?
 
2014-03-19 01:03:48 PM  

mod3072: Rapmaster2000: The price of corn is off by 40% from 2010, and wheat isn't much better but falling commodities don't make headlines.

Meat is where you're going to get killed this year with the drought induced cattle selloffs of the past several years.  Rising beef prices push consumers down the meat price chain and that increases the prices on cheaper meats too.  It's temporary and logical.  Don't panic.

But then, I live in a country where nobody knows the difference between inflation and CPI so prepare for an onslaught of "inflation is out of control" articles.

It's not just the drought, although that certainly played a large role. When corn started hitting ridiculous prices, a lot of producers around here either reduced or eliminated their herds. It was a lot more profitable to sell the cows, rip up the pastures and plant corn than it was to keep the cows and buy corn for feed. There has been so much grassland broken around here to plant corn over the last 10 years that it makes me almost want to cry. That's not a trend that it going to reverse itself overnight, no matter what corn and soybean prices do.


We've had several decent sized beef producers around here put more resources into their pasture land and start selling their beef directly to the public as grass-fed.
Costs more, but worth it not to eat an animal that once stood knee-deep in its own shiat and was pumped full of antibiotics.
 
2014-03-19 01:05:56 PM  

HMS_Blinkin: I mean, who's freaking out about the 1% rise in food prices, other than the author of TFA?


There's a whole segment of nutters out there that is absolutely convinced that "real" inflation is just completely out of control and we're constantly on the razor's edge of collapse. Marketwatch comments are usually a good place to find a strong set of examples and their insane prognostications.

They're similar to the idiots who are always on about "real" unemployment. They base their beliefs on the notion that the government intentionally manipulates CPI by removing food and energy to hide the "real" rate, despite what they're looking for being readily available, in the same way the unemployment crazies ignore the fact that BLS publishes U6.
 
2014-03-19 01:16:53 PM  

Grungehamster: HYPERINFLATION!!!1 Plus every smartass who tells you confidently that the number purposefully leaves out food and energy prices which they assure me are sky high even when I explain I'm not giving them the core rate.

It sounds like in this case food inflation is still below core inflation, but they found a couple individual items in the 4% range and said "assuming food continues to climb at that rate things are going to be impossibly costly in the future."


This.

2011 wants its article back.
 
2014-03-19 01:18:29 PM  
Two tacos at Jack In The Box have been $.99 for over 15 years, therefor there is no food inflation.
 
2014-03-19 01:19:33 PM  

skozlaw: Let's see what one of them thinks when they're facing down double-digit core inflation in a single month.


I've been assured it's like the Wiemar Republic. Sure, they're off by a few orders of magnitude, but they can't even grasp WTF an order of magnitude is, so it's real to them, damn it.
 
2014-03-19 01:32:30 PM  

StokeyBob: So while they've got you focused on the price of a candy bar and how you only need to stretch out another 2% they have you standing on a rug that is dragging you back another 6%.

Inflation is running about 8% a year if you know where to look.


Inflation is running about whatever you want it to be if you know where to look.
 
2014-03-19 01:32:34 PM  

skozlaw: They're similar to the idiots who are always on about "real" unemployment. They base their beliefs on the notion that the government intentionally manipulates CPI by removing food and energy to hide the "real" rate, despite what they're looking for being readily available, in the same way the unemployment crazies ignore the fact that BLS publishes U6.


The venn diagram of these 2 groups looks like a Japanese flag.
 
2014-03-19 01:52:11 PM  

StokeyBob: So while they've got you focused on the price of a candy bar and how you only need to stretch out another 2% they have you standing on a rug that is dragging you back another 6%.

Inflation is running about 8% a year if you know where to look.


Deflation is running about 8% if you know where to look, too.
 
2014-03-19 02:51:51 PM  

impaler: skozlaw: They're similar to the idiots who are always on about "real" unemployment. They base their beliefs on the notion that the government intentionally manipulates CPI by removing food and energy to hide the "real" rate, despite what they're looking for being readily available, in the same way the unemployment crazies ignore the fact that BLS publishes U6.

The venn diagram of these 2 groups looks like a Japanese flag.


I laughed entirely too hard at this.
 
2014-03-19 05:22:29 PM  

skozlaw: There's a whole segment of nutters out there that is absolutely convinced that "real" inflation is just completely out of control and we're constantly on the razor's edge of collapse. Marketwatch comments are usually a good place to find a strong set of examples and their insane prognostications.


I find the strangest part is that they keep believing.  I mean, yeah, you might think inflation felt like it was 6% for one year, and for you, personally maybe it even was since everyone's purchasing basket is different.  But the shadowstats guys have been claiming that inflation has been *at least* 6% annually for over a decade, which would imply that the general price level in 2014 should be, at minimum, 2.25x the price level in 2000 and 1.8x the price level in 2004, which is just completely bonkers.
 
2014-03-19 10:46:44 PM  

OptionC: skozlaw: There's a whole segment of nutters out there that is absolutely convinced that "real" inflation is just completely out of control and we're constantly on the razor's edge of collapse. Marketwatch comments are usually a good place to find a strong set of examples and their insane prognostications.

I find the strangest part is that they keep believing.  I mean, yeah, you might think inflation felt like it was 6% for one year, and for you, personally maybe it even was since everyone's purchasing basket is different.  But the shadowstats guys have been claiming that inflation has been *at least* 6% annually for over a decade, which would imply that the general price level in 2014 should be, at minimum, 2.25x the price level in 2000 and 1.8x the price level in 2004, which is just completely bonkers.


The Dow Jones Industrial average changes to the tune of inflation. Some of us have been pushed to collapse. Note the point the dot com bubble burst and the point the housing market collapsed.

photos.imageevent.com

All of the counterfeiting has us right up against it. The only thing that hasn't kept pace is wages, pretty much.

Every time proven industry has been beaten to the point of failure.

I can't imagine where you guys could be that your not seeing prices go up all the while all of your everything is having the wealth sucked out of it. What used to take $5.00 in the 60's now takes about $160.00.
 
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