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(Some Tatar)   Turkey has threatened Russia with a blockade of the Bosphorus Strait. This should end well   ( ukrainianpolicy.com) divider line
    More: Followup, Bosphorus, Russia, Turkey, Ahmet Davutoglu, Russian President Vladimir Putin, Prime Minister of Turkey  
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7027 clicks; posted to Main » on 18 Mar 2014 at 6:35 AM (3 years ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2014-03-18 06:38:05 AM  
OMG must go back to Bosphorus soon

/restaurant that gives you the drools
 
2014-03-18 06:39:18 AM  
Meh, it's no Dardanelles.
 
2014-03-18 06:41:42 AM  
The Bosphorus Strait sounds like my back end.
 
2014-03-18 06:42:51 AM  
It's not like there are armed gangs of Russian men roaming the Crimea, making the homes of Tatars, the Muslim minority that Stalin once "relocated" to Siberia.
 
2014-03-18 06:44:51 AM  
And Turkey moves its knight, placing Russia in check.
 
2014-03-18 06:45:27 AM  
Yeah... going expansionist in the back-yard of the foreign nation that controls your primary extra-national shipping route wasn't the most brilliant of schemes on Russia's part, there.

They can't even pull the nuke card on this one, either, and even conventional escalation will backfire on them instantly since Turkey isn't Crimea and has actual international allies instead of nominal "allies".
 
2014-03-18 06:45:42 AM  
But, but, but ... PUTIN!
He's a big bad bully and will hurt you!

/Srsly, fark Putin.
 
2014-03-18 06:46:25 AM  
I get this strange feeling that if there's ever a WWIII, it'll be more like World War EveryoneagainsttheRussians.
 
2014-03-18 06:48:34 AM  

Baron Harkonnen: I get this strange feeling that if there's ever a WWIII, it'll be more like World War EveryoneagainsttheRussians.


Will this be to exception to getting in a land war with Asia?
 
2014-03-18 06:49:41 AM  
So, whose business is that?
 
2014-03-18 06:51:05 AM  

macross87: Istanbul?


Not Constantinople.
 
2014-03-18 06:52:59 AM  
If Russia attacked Turkey over that blockade there would be some hot NATO action.
 
2014-03-18 06:53:23 AM  
Cool move.
 
2014-03-18 06:53:37 AM  

Summoner101: Baron Harkonnen: I get this strange feeling that if there's ever a WWIII, it'll be more like World War EveryoneagainsttheRussians.

Will this be to exception to getting in a land war with Asia?


No, as every time someone has trotted this out since this situation has begun, someone else has pointed out that Ukraine is not in Asia and nearly the whole population of Russia is not in Asia.
 
2014-03-18 06:53:40 AM  
Burning the phosphorus will turn up the heat on Tough Guy Pooty Poot.
 
2014-03-18 06:53:42 AM  
Looks like Russia has no choice but to bake some Turkey.
 
2014-03-18 06:55:36 AM  
The US could fly the F-22 on actual missions as long as the weather is nice.
 
2014-03-18 06:56:13 AM  

Baron Harkonnen: I get this strange feeling that if there's ever a WWIII, it'll be more like World War EveryoneagainsttheRussians.


EveryoneexceptChinaagainsttheRussians.

Ftfa
 
2014-03-18 07:00:20 AM  
If Russia attacked Turkey from the rear, would Greece help?

/Obligatory
 
2014-03-18 07:01:16 AM  
The Russians are about to discover that their Black Sea Fleet and associated shipping is good for patrolling that body of water and nothing else. Not that there was a lot of firepower in the BSF anyway; the Russians recognized that the Bosporous would be easily closed at any time, which is why the fleet based out of Murmansk is a lot larger and more capable. Commercial shipping now, that's a problem, unless they start using foreign shipping to carry their cargoes.

/at least it used to be
//not so sure any more
 
2014-03-18 07:04:05 AM  
'some tartar'

/lolsky
 
2014-03-18 07:04:28 AM  
farm6.static.flickr.com

1.bp.blogspot.com

i.usatoday.net

www.rawstory.com

i.telegraph.co.uk
 
2014-03-18 07:04:59 AM  

Baron Harkonnen: I get this strange feeling that if there's ever a WWIII, it'll be more like World War EveryoneagainsttheRussians.


...unless they've made a secret alliance with China, in an attempt to checkmate US/European dominance:

1. Russia starts a small shooting war in Eastern Europe (enough to trigger treaty obligations, but not enough to go nuclear; say an invasion of the Baltics, for whom we will not go nuclear), to get the US to commit resources there.

2. Just as we get fully committed, China makes a hard push for Taiwan at the exact same time NK makes a hard push for Seoul.

3. With 3 shooting wars with 3 nuclear powers scattered widely across the globe, we can't fight them all and have to choose.

4. We're forced by circumstance to choose SK, because we have too many troops there. By the time we stabilize that fire, Taiwan and the Baltics are fait accomopli. With political deadlock and an election year at home and Europe pushing to take the peace negotiations Russia/China offer, we have no choice but to back down.

5. Russia keeps most/all of the Baltics, China keeps Taiwan. They may both have some internal dissent to crush, but most likely they get them free of charge.

6. The US has no effective counter-ploy. In the face of nuclear force, we cannot escalate. Game, set, match.
 
2014-03-18 07:05:04 AM  

The Beatings Will Continue Until Morale Improves: The US could fly the F-22 on actual missions as long as the weather is nice.


This must be one of those whacky veiled messages spies use. "The weather is nice, Mr. Putin; Uncle Sam might bring a new kite to your picnic. Do you like gladiator movies?"
 
2014-03-18 07:05:21 AM  
Turkey had its own unrest going.
Take care the problem doesn't mysteriously escalate.
 
2014-03-18 07:05:34 AM  

Baron Harkonnen: I get this strange feeling that if there's ever a WWIII, it'll be more like World War EveryoneagainsttheRussians.



And what do you think China will be doing?
 
2014-03-18 07:05:55 AM  
I'm a little surprised that Ukraine hasn't cut power and fuel to Crimea yet. You want to side with Russia, they can heat your homes. I suppose they're waiting for Russia to make the next move.
 
2014-03-18 07:07:07 AM  
 
2014-03-18 07:07:36 AM  
as an american living in australia, i demand the US invade so that I can be protected
 
2014-03-18 07:08:03 AM  

ChubbyTiger: I'm a little surprised that Ukraine hasn't cut power and fuel to Crimea yet. You want to side with Russia, they can heat your homes. I suppose they're waiting for Russia to make the next move.


"hey, let's give Russia an excuse to invade other parts of Ukraine"
 
2014-03-18 07:08:33 AM  
I'd annex the Sudetenland Crimean peninsula!
 
2014-03-18 07:10:04 AM  

Baron Harkonnen: I get this strange feeling that if there's ever a WWIII, it'll be more like World War EveryoneagainsttheRussians.


And the end of this planet
 
2014-03-18 07:11:28 AM  
I don't see the problem, actually. Russia kind of protects ethnic Russians. Turkey kind of protects ethnic Tatars. Both countries establish their credentials in the region, flex muscles a bit, friendly growl or two.

Putin proclaims that he is completely for the equality of all the nations in the region, offer Turkey to send an observer or ten into Crimea, to be completely sure that nothing untoward happens to Tatars. Tatars get some concessions. Both countries shake hands, kiss each other and proclaim the undying friendship between Russia and Turkey now and forever, and then bark a bit towards the West (after all, wasn't Erdogan the bad guy just a couple of days ago?)

With this simple move Turkey have helped Tatars in the Crimea more, than the West ever did, AND Erdogan has increased his domestic popularity, all the while without really alienating Russia, because that's exactly the language Putin understands and agrees with; show of strength to protect your minority. Symbolic gestures towards Tatar minorities wouldn't cost Putin or Russia anything really, so no loss for Russia.

And, of course, once the gang credentials of Turkey in the region are reestablished and respect is shown, Putin may continue to safely take care of the Ukraine, since it doesn't really bothers Turkey.
 
2014-03-18 07:14:53 AM  

drjekel_mrhyde: And the end of this planet


It wouldn't really be the end. The planet will not be actually destroyed, even the losses aren't likely to be all that terrible. A billion or two of dead bodies, a nuclear winter or two, a century or so fighting rabid bands of mutated Russkies emerging from the Russian wasteland, Canadian domination of the rest of American continent (it's to the best, really), well, Eastern-Central Europe mostly dead, but who cares about those...
 
2014-03-18 07:15:09 AM  
A few months later: As God as my witness, I thought Turkey could fight.
 
2014-03-18 07:16:10 AM  

whistleridge: Baron Harkonnen: I get this strange feeling that if there's ever a WWIII, it'll be more like World War EveryoneagainsttheRussians.

...unless they've made a secret alliance with China, in an attempt to checkmate US/European dominance:

1. Russia starts a small shooting war in Eastern Europe (enough to trigger treaty obligations, but not enough to go nuclear; say an invasion of the Baltics, for whom we will not go nuclear), to get the US to commit resources there.

2. Just as we get fully committed, China makes a hard push for Taiwan at the exact same time NK makes a hard push for Seoul.

3. With 3 shooting wars with 3 nuclear powers scattered widely across the globe, we can't fight them all and have to choose.

4. We're forced by circumstance to choose SK, because we have too many troops there. By the time we stabilize that fire, Taiwan and the Baltics are fait accomopli. With political deadlock and an election year at home and Europe pushing to take the peace negotiations Russia/China offer, we have no choice but to back down.

5. Russia keeps most/all of the Baltics, China keeps Taiwan. They may both have some internal dissent to crush, but most likely they get them free of charge.

6. The US has no effective counter-ploy. In the face of nuclear force, we cannot escalate. Game, set, match.




China depends on manufacturing exports to the us. Russia depends on fuel exports to Europe. If they both went to war against their customers it would probably be a short lived fight.

I don't think Putin is a fool. He's using old school brinksmanship because he knows modern presidents don't deal well with aggressive actions. Especially not during an election year. If he can draw it out long enough, our attention span will shift and he basically wins.
The question is if he can do it without starting a war against any of the other vested interests in that region.

/He's taken an area with no overland connection to Russian territory.
/just keeping them in supplies is going to come with an unwanted cost.
/plus he's made no friends in Turkey with the Syria mess.
/they've got one hell of a bargaining chip, and a great need for weapons and money.
 
2014-03-18 07:16:40 AM  

LewDux: ChubbyTiger: I'm a little surprised that Ukraine hasn't cut power and fuel to Crimea yet. You want to side with Russia, they can heat your homes. I suppose they're waiting for Russia to make the next move.

"hey, let's give Russia an excuse to invade other parts of Ukraine"


Can't forestall the inevitable. Might as well have some fun first.
 
2014-03-18 07:18:57 AM  

whistleridge: Baron Harkonnen: I get this strange feeling that if there's ever a WWIII, it'll be more like World War EveryoneagainsttheRussians.

...unless they've made a secret alliance with China, in an attempt to checkmate US/European dominance:

1. Russia starts a small shooting war in Eastern Europe (enough to trigger treaty obligations, but not enough to go nuclear; say an invasion of the Baltics, for whom we will not go nuclear), to get the US to commit resources there.

2. Just as we get fully committed, China makes a hard push for Taiwan at the exact same time NK makes a hard push for Seoul.

3. With 3 shooting wars with 3 nuclear powers scattered widely across the globe, we can't fight them all and have to choose.

4. We're forced by circumstance to choose SK, because we have too many troops there. By the time we stabilize that fire, Taiwan and the Baltics are fait accomopli. With political deadlock and an election year at home and Europe pushing to take the peace negotiations Russia/China offer, we have no choice but to back down.

5. Russia keeps most/all of the Baltics, China keeps Taiwan. They may both have some internal dissent to crush, but most likely they get them free of charge.

6. The US has no effective counter-ploy. In the face of nuclear force, we cannot escalate. Game, set, match.


You're kind of forgetting Japan there.
Not to mention Australia.
Or the Pacific Fleet.

NK/SK--SK, hands down.
China/Taiwan--that'd be a tough one, but my hand goes to Taiwan.  Sure, China can obliterate Taiwan, but invading it and taking it?  Not exactly, and there's alot of open water between China and Japan and the USN is pretty happy with their sub fleet that can sit around undetected and launch conventional anti-ship torpedoes and rockets all day.
Russia/The World--Russia wouldn't bother for long.  Sure, it'd be far cheaper for them to wage a war in their backyard, but I doubt Germany would stand by, nor would the UK, and apparently, neither would Turkey.

Like someone already mentioned--Russia versus The World (TM).
 
2014-03-18 07:18:59 AM  

whistleridge: Baron Harkonnen: I get this strange feeling that if there's ever a WWIII, it'll be more like World War EveryoneagainsttheRussians.

...unless they've made a secret alliance with China, in an attempt to checkmate US/European dominance:

1. Russia starts a small shooting war in Eastern Europe (enough to trigger treaty obligations, but not enough to go nuclear; say an invasion of the Baltics, for whom we will not go nuclear), to get the US to commit resources there.

2. Just as we get fully committed, China makes a hard push for Taiwan at the exact same time NK makes a hard push for Seoul.

3. With 3 shooting wars with 3 nuclear powers scattered widely across the globe, we can't fight them all and have to choose.

4. We're forced by circumstance to choose SK, because we have too many troops there. By the time we stabilize that fire, Taiwan and the Baltics are fait accomopli. With political deadlock and an election year at home and Europe pushing to take the peace negotiations Russia/China offer, we have no choice but to back down.

5. Russia keeps most/all of the Baltics, China keeps Taiwan. They may both have some internal dissent to crush, but most likely they get them free of charge.

6. The US has no effective counter-ploy. In the face of nuclear force, we cannot escalate. Game, set, match.


/starts buying popcorn stock
//some people just want to watch the world burn
///scared slashies
 
2014-03-18 07:21:45 AM  

AirForceVet: And Turkey moves its knight, placing Russia in check.


I would've gone with a Diplomacy reference, but that works too.
 
2014-03-18 07:22:44 AM  

way south: whistleridge: Baron Harkonnen: I get this strange feeling that if there's ever a WWIII, it'll be more like World War EveryoneagainsttheRussians.

...unless they've made a secret alliance with China, in an attempt to checkmate US/European dominance:

1. Russia starts a small shooting war in Eastern Europe (enough to trigger treaty obligations, but not enough to go nuclear; say an invasion of the Baltics, for whom we will not go nuclear), to get the US to commit resources there.

2. Just as we get fully committed, China makes a hard push for Taiwan at the exact same time NK makes a hard push for Seoul.

3. With 3 shooting wars with 3 nuclear powers scattered widely across the globe, we can't fight them all and have to choose.

4. We're forced by circumstance to choose SK, because we have too many troops there. By the time we stabilize that fire, Taiwan and the Baltics are fait accomopli. With political deadlock and an election year at home and Europe pushing to take the peace negotiations Russia/China offer, we have no choice but to back down.

5. Russia keeps most/all of the Baltics, China keeps Taiwan. They may both have some internal dissent to crush, but most likely they get them free of charge.

6. The US has no effective counter-ploy. In the face of nuclear force, we cannot escalate. Game, set, match.

China depends on manufacturing exports to the us. Russia depends on fuel exports to Europe. If they both went to war against their customers it would probably be a short lived fight.

I don't think Putin is a fool. He's using old school brinksmanship because he knows modern presidents don't deal well with aggressive actions. Especially not during an election year. If he can draw it out long enough, our attention span will shift and he basically wins.
The question is if he can do it without starting a war against any of the other vested interests in that region.

/He's taken an area with no overland connection to Russian territory.
/just keeping them in supplies is going to come with an unwanted cost.
/plus he's made no friends in Turkey with the Syria mess.
/they've got one hell of a bargaining chip, and a great need for weapons and money.


I don't insist on it.

But it's one of many possible scenarios by which powers that are entirely opposed to our stranglehold on world affairs could act in concert to break it. Crimea is an admirable proof of concept of the geographic limitations on Great Powers, especially in proximity to other Great Powers.

At the end of the day...their strategic calculus may be very different from both ours and what we perceive to be common sense.
 
2014-03-18 07:23:01 AM  

ChubbyTiger: I'm a little surprised that Ukraine hasn't cut power and fuel to Crimea yet.


That's because it won't fly all that well with Eastern Ukraine. It's actually Eastern Ukraine who sell power/fuel to Crimea, and they aren't to starve their Crimean brothers for Kiev's posturing. Plus, Putin pays real money, dollars even, not Ukrainian grivna, which right now is somewhere between monopoly money and the dogecoin in terms of actual value.

Plus, that'll just show the real persecution. Russian TV will have a field day going into homes and apartments of elderly Russians, Tatars and Ukrainians and showing their please for dying from cold, as also hospitals without electricity, et cetera. Finally a real hostile move on the part of Ukraine.
 
2014-03-18 07:23:07 AM  
Woohoo! My first green!
 
2014-03-18 07:23:24 AM  
whistleridge:

2. Just as we get fully committed, China makes a hard push for Taiwan at the exact same time NK makes a hard push for Seoul.

This ain't 1950. SK's military would hand NK's military its head on a plate. That said, they would do a lot of damage first. Not to mention the fact that Japan's SDF would almost certainly get involved.
 
2014-03-18 07:23:54 AM  
Don't worry, I'm sure the Eurotrash will be here soon to somehow blame this move on the US any second now...
 
2014-03-18 07:25:32 AM  

way south: China depends on manufacturing exports to the us. Russia depends on fuel exports to Europe. If they both went to war against their customers it would probably be a short lived fight.


This is reason enough to advocate for free trade. "When goods don't cross borders, soldiers will."
 
2014-03-18 07:27:00 AM  

ChubbyTiger: Can't forestall the inevitable. Might as well have some fun first.


It certainly isn't inevitable. Putin can't swallow Eastern Ukraine for now. He needs some years to swallow Crimea first. If through those years Eastern and Western Ukraine will come to terms with each other, unite and create a single strong government, Putin will not touch them.

The whole Crimea debacle became possible only because Ukraine have lost its government, and the new temporary government was weak, without control over regions, police, army or even the streets of Kiev. If not for this, Crimea would still be Ukrainian.
 
2014-03-18 07:30:35 AM  
Fear not, people of turkey, just like in the cases of Ukraine and Syria, America has got your back.
 
2014-03-18 07:33:19 AM  
I don't want to rain on everyone's Putin bashing, but if Turkey closes the channel to Russian shipping you better get ready for an oil crisis. And that's before Puty Put shuts off the gas pipelines

This body of water serves as a primary highway for the transport of energy to Europe from Russia and western Asia. In 2005 over 55,000 ships, including almost 6,000 oil tankers passed through it, most carrying Russian oil.
 
2014-03-18 07:33:44 AM  

way south: Turkey had its own unrest going.
Take care the problem doesn't mysteriously escalate.


Be real funny if Edrogan's opponents suddenly get a massive influx of prime Russian kit, huh?
 
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