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(Guardian)   NASA study: We're screwed   (theguardian.com) divider line 256
    More: Scary, NASA, resource extraction, technological change  
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24842 clicks; posted to Main » on 16 Mar 2014 at 10:42 AM (19 weeks ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2014-03-16 11:21:35 AM

Pharmdawg: I wonder how many great civilizations were warned decades in advance of their impending doom, and the wealthy elites laughed it off and kept on drinking and partying and irrevocably farking things up.

All of them, I suspect.


Everything works until it doesn't. Doomsday predictors are often kooks

/the end is nigh
 
2014-03-16 11:22:15 AM
More libtard propaganda.  The truth is we can grow as much as we want, consume as much as we want, pollute as much as we want, and there are no consequences. Because... job creators... Jesus... America!

/Conservative logic
 
2014-03-16 11:22:45 AM
Although the study is largely theoretical

No reference to Bashir's analysis that the Federation can't win the war with the Dominion?  Fark, I am disappoint.
 
2014-03-16 11:22:50 AM

mr lawson: see...that right there is one of the arguments i have against this study. Wealthy do not consume too much. They consume too little as a percentage of income and wealth.


Way to not comprehend the article at all.  It clearly says that they consume/hoard too much relative to the people doing the actual production.  Not that they simply use too much.
 
2014-03-16 11:24:12 AM

GungFu: CruJones: Why is NASA studying economics and social psychology?

Why did NASA invent the non-stick frying pan? And Tang and velcro? And adult diapers that keep fresh for a week?


Not sure if serious but NASA did not invent teflon or velcro. I don't know about the adult diapers

And anyway, it's not like the Earth was going to last forever anyway. It is a finite resource
 
2014-03-16 11:24:27 AM

TV's Vinnie: I've been hearing this doom & gloom since the early 70's, and yet we're still here, and there's still plenty of Big Macs to go around.


Big Macs are part of the problem. "60% of the world's agricultural land is used for beef production, yet beef accounts for less than 2% of the calories that are consumed throughout the world." FAO UN
 
2014-03-16 11:25:17 AM
If we could only cook up a nice pandemic.  Take out about 75% of the population on the planet.  Things wouldn't be so bad then.

Somebody get George Orr on the phone and let him take a nap.  Whisper sweet nothings in his ear....

i1.ytimg.com

/Lathe Of Heaven
 
2014-03-16 11:25:22 AM

Alonjar: Way to not comprehend the article at all.  It clearly says that they consume/hoard too much relative to the people doing the actual production


you assume I read the article. Sorry If i gave that impression. I just scanned the comments here and made a quick judgement call on it from these comments.
 
2014-03-16 11:25:28 AM
 
2014-03-16 11:29:23 AM

mr lawson: you assume I read the article. Sorry If i gave that impression. I just scanned the comments here and made a quick judgement call on it from these comments.


Ah.. well to TL;DR for you... it says that when the Elites hoard all of the produced resources and only give the producers enough to barely subsist on, the producers stop producing.. because "fark it."
 
2014-03-16 11:29:43 AM
NASA: More space ships, less economic guesses. FOCUS.
 
2014-03-16 11:29:51 AM
These types of studies are simultaneous important and hard to take seriously.

People have been screaming about the impending collapse of civilization forever, and western model civilization since at least Mathus. Yes, current resource exploitation and wealth distribution has some serious problems, but its the most efficient model we have come up with. Hell, Globalization is actually retarding any collapse by wounding the top end economies to bleed manufacturing of all things into poorer, marginal economies and raising their standards of living. As a long term "civilization" protection strategy it was an amazing feat of social engineering to sell it to those who would be hurt by it in the short term.

This isn't to say that we don't have some *serious* points of weakness. "Just in Time" manufacturing is really "Just wanting for a large enough disaster to take us out". Our capacity to rebuild critical infrastructure in the event of a wide spread global scale disaster is fairly non-existent. Companies and nations just don't keep large stockpiles of parts and materials on hand anymore. Wealth stratification is also kicking us in the pants, but that something that can be reversed easily any number of ways if the will / fear can be gathered in the elites to provide more then bread and circuses. In any case, half our problem (in the western world) is that we are approaching a efficiency level that simply cannot employ everyone . Enough goods are produced, food grown, and resourced gotten with a minimal amount of labor that the "Everyone needs and should work to survive" model is starting to crack.
 
2014-03-16 11:32:03 AM
We are 1000 times inefficient throughout the whole process of modern life, because we value money and control over all else.

we use 1 Billion short tons of coal a year to produce 37% of the electricity in modern US society, when we could use 1 million tons of coal to form 15,000 miles of conduit to house a superconductive loop that would allow us to immediately remove 20% of our electrical needs due to savings in heat.

66,000 7.5 MW/hour turbines could power the US every hour on the hour.
150 square miles of Gallium Arsinide solar cells could power the US for 16 hours a day.
900 square miles of conventional solar cells could power the US for 16 hours a day

E. Coli developed in South Korea in 2010 could directly produce diesel, and in 2013, could directly produce gasoline

In Europe there is a car engine and frame that can go 261 miles per imperial gallon
BMW's I8 high performance sport's car gets 94 miles per standard US gallon and goes from 0-60 mph in 4.4 seconds

We could take a million long distance tractor trailers off the roads a year if we could remove the need to send 12,000 train cars worth of coal to be burned every day, and another 4,000 oil tanker cars off the rails everyday.

We could do a thousand things in 10 years from upgrading buildings and building more efficient infrastructure to food production that would solve all of this and allow us to get a grip, on the 8-9 Billion people we will peak out at at 2065, but we have to stop thinking about political power and money as the things humanity seems to value over all else.

It seems so paradoxical that people are inventing things to solve problems and then no one in power wants to implement them. Why has the US private and public invested 400 Billion dollars over the past 30 years alone, not including Europe and Asia's, 500 Billion combined, and then we just let it sit on the shelf unused and unimplemented. There isn't even a plan to seriously study the possible and achievable solutions today.
 
2014-03-16 11:32:51 AM

Gone In 26 Minutes: And 35+ years ago, people were saying the same thing - except it was during the Cold War era which was also supersrsbsns that people thought couldn't be avoided. For decades now, we've supposedly been on the brink of some catastrophe or another caused by something.


Um, you realize we wer really, REALLY close to basically nuking most human life off the earth *SEVERAL* times in the cold war, right?

And there were a few instances where it seems like *sheer chance* (Guy that was not supposed to be there that day making the call not to launch, etc) kept the world from being radically altered by nuclear warfare?
 
2014-03-16 11:33:09 AM
immortalmusic.net
 
2014-03-16 11:33:29 AM

mark12A: Go home, Nasa, you're drunk...


Lot of derp in this thread.
 
2014-03-16 11:34:09 AM
Failure due to too few resources, when the asteroids have more resources than we have on Earth? If only there were some organization which could study how to use them.
 
2014-03-16 11:34:43 AM

patagoniantoothfish: But don't worry - NASA have also recorded a series of cryptic messages that we can open at various stages of the collapse to help guide us through various crises and thus shorten the period of darkness and chaos.


By one life's coincidences I'm actually revisiting my old old classics in audiobook form and this is one I'm going through now. Unfortunately for us, it doesn't appear that we have a long-lived, telepathic robot to secretly guide us through the upcoming collapse and rebirth.
 
2014-03-16 11:35:18 AM
While I do love my Apocalypse porn, studies like this, and the zombie/asteroid/alien/event zeitgeist in general, just serve to perpetuate the MYTH that actually fixing the problems we have (addressing inequality, food/water security, pollution) would be (or in this case, require) the END OF THE WORLD.

OTOH If society does collapse and it *isn't* a zombie apocalypse, a good reading of the Zombie Survival Guide will still stand you in good stead. It's basically a survivalism + thinly veiled xenophobic guerrilla warfare manual anyway.
 
2014-03-16 11:36:48 AM

mr lawson: Gone In 26 Minutes: And 35+ years ago, people were saying the same thing - except it was during the Cold War era which was also supersrsbsns that people thought couldn't be avoided. For decades now, we've supposedly been on the brink of some catastrophe or another caused by  something.

oh i get that. Trust me. I get it. Even as I type this and everyday I wake up, I critically wonder to myself, "'Am I right? Did I miss something in the data? The world has been spinning for thousands of years and just by miracle it is going to fall apart when I am alive? Occam's razor."
And yet it seems to be the case.


The world does not equal industrialized civilization. If you think industrial and post industrial life styles are sustainable then your sir, are a grade a moron.
 
2014-03-16 11:37:06 AM
Moms coming round to put it back the way it outta be.
 
2014-03-16 11:37:47 AM

Fano: Pharmdawg: I wonder how many great civilizations were warned decades in advance of their impending doom, and the wealthy elites laughed it off and kept on drinking and partying and irrevocably farking things up.

All of them, I suspect.

Everything works until it doesn't. Doomsday predictors are often kooks

/the end is nigh


Hardly a Doomsday prediction. Unless you somehow think that industrial and post industrial societies are the overwhelming norm?
 
2014-03-16 11:39:15 AM

Felgraf: Gone In 26 Minutes: And 35+ years ago, people were saying the same thing - except it was during the Cold War era which was also supersrsbsns that people thought couldn't be avoided. For decades now, we've supposedly been on the brink of some catastrophe or another caused by something.

Um, you realize we wer really, REALLY close to basically nuking most human life off the earth *SEVERAL* times in the cold war, right?

And there were a few instances where it seems like *sheer chance* (Guy that was not supposed to be there that day making the call not to launch, etc) kept the world from being radically altered by nuclear warfare?


I'm well aware. That's part of my point. Somehow, even when it seemed impossible, something prevented us from killing ourselves with our own stupidity and hubris. I think people need less faith in Jesus and more faith in each other specifically because of those lucky events. Human beings make the best miracles; whose to say our future will be any different?
 
2014-03-16 11:39:27 AM

Rozotorical: The world does not equal industrialized civilization. If you think industrial and post industrial life styles are sustainable then your sir, are a grade a moron.


please expand on your thesis. examples would be great.
 
2014-03-16 11:40:16 AM

Gone In 26 Minutes:  ...whose who's to say our future will be any different?


FTFM
 
2014-03-16 11:40:40 AM

Acravius: We are 1000 times inefficient throughout the whole process of modern life, because we value money and control over all else.

we use 1 Billion short tons of coal a year to produce 37% of the electricity in modern US society, when we could use 1 million tons of coal to form 15,000 miles of conduit to house a superconductive loop that would allow us to immediately remove 20% of our electrical needs due to savings in heat.

66,000 7.5 MW/hour turbines could power the US every hour on the hour.
150 square miles of Gallium Arsinide solar cells could power the US for 16 hours a day.
900 square miles of conventional solar cells could power the US for 16 hours a day

E. Coli developed in South Korea in 2010 could directly produce diesel, and in 2013, could directly produce gasoline

In Europe there is a car engine and frame that can go 261 miles per imperial gallon
BMW's I8 high performance sport's car gets 94 miles per standard US gallon and goes from 0-60 mph in 4.4 seconds

We could take a million long distance tractor trailers off the roads a year if we could remove the need to send 12,000 train cars worth of coal to be burned every day, and another 4,000 oil tanker cars off the rails everyday.

We could do a thousand things in 10 years from upgrading buildings and building more efficient infrastructure to food production that would solve all of this and allow us to get a grip, on the 8-9 Billion people we will peak out at at 2065, but we have to stop thinking about political power and money as the things humanity seems to value over all else.

It seems so paradoxical that people are inventing things to solve problems and then no one in power wants to implement them. Why has the US private and public invested 400 Billion dollars over the past 30 years alone, not including Europe and Asia's, 500 Billion combined, and then we just let it sit on the shelf unused and unimplemented. There isn't even a plan to seriously study the possible and achievable solutions today.


Money talks, and science walks. There's a reason that the United States, the country that brought you the Internet, can't seem to get our speeds above what the average North Korean enjoys - there's no financial incentive to do so, not with the laws in place guaranteeing the business and the lack of competition and the captive market forced to use whatever is put in front of them. There's a reason that state governments, seeing gas tax income drop like a stunned sparrow when hybrids & electrics came out, started taxing the hell out of hybrids & electrics (especially given that the taxes were meant as a direct offset to the federal subsidies provided for those vehicle purchases.) There's a reason that we're still fighting to prevent massive oil & gas pipelines across the country, and massive coal shipyards here in Washington.

Money is all that matters now. Our well-being, our very survival, bizarrely takes a back seat to greed. In the last three decades or so, we've gone insane. My fear is that it's going to take a true catastrophe - something that affects the entire country - before we manage to shake off that insanity.
 
2014-03-16 11:41:05 AM

SheltemDragon: Mathus


In many ways western society has collapsed several times since Mathus. They doesn't mean societies stays collapsed and doesn't rebuild itself.
 
2014-03-16 11:41:39 AM
Amazingly a SFW oglaf that sums up the whole situation, including the text over.

http://oglaf.com/illusionist/

text box: "Money's an illusion."

Other content on oglaf is generally not safe for work, but this one page cartoon is free of nudity or sexual innuendo.
 
2014-03-16 11:42:08 AM
Time to poll the scientific community regarding Human Change.

If 80% or more of the scientific community agrees that the collapse of civilization is inevitable in the next century due to Human Change, as certified by NASA(TM), then you better get you cyanide pills ready. Who wants to be alive to witness such a thing.
 
2014-03-16 11:42:27 AM
Humans are a two-second scene in the evolutionary slide show.

/NASA isn't busy enough with human space flight anymore, so they sit around producing this alarmist crap?
 
2014-03-16 11:42:54 AM

mr lawson: Rozotorical: The world does not equal industrialized civilization. If you think industrial and post industrial life styles are sustainable then your sir, are a grade a moron.

please expand on your thesis. examples would be great.


Explain that industrialized society or the post industrialized society we mostly live in the west is not the planet earth?

fark where do I begin.
 
2014-03-16 11:44:37 AM

Rozotorical: mr lawson: Gone In 26 Minutes: And 35+ years ago, people were saying the same thing - except it was during the Cold War era which was also supersrsbsns that people thought couldn't be avoided. For decades now, we've supposedly been on the brink of some catastrophe or another caused by  something.

oh i get that. Trust me. I get it. Even as I type this and everyday I wake up, I critically wonder to myself, "'Am I right? Did I miss something in the data? The world has been spinning for thousands of years and just by miracle it is going to fall apart when I am alive? Occam's razor."
And yet it seems to be the case.

The world does not equal industrialized civilization. If you think industrial and post industrial life styles are sustainable then your sir, are a grade a moron.


How do you figure? Industrialization is a very new thing in our species' history so it's hard to say either way. If we rely on a finite resource, then no, it isn't sustainable - but that's been the case throughout history for every animal. What industrialization has done is make the process faster and more efficient. The idea is taking what we've learned and applying it to the same sort of rapid renewal and/or rapid reproduction of the things we need. See also: modern agriculture. It's really amazing what kind of shiat you can do with a few hundred years worth of technology that just keeps growing more sophisticated.
 
2014-03-16 11:46:23 AM
So when can I pencil in cannibalism on the ol' Outlook calendar?
 
2014-03-16 11:46:43 AM

mr lawson: Rozotorical: The world does not equal industrialized civilization. If you think industrial and post industrial life styles are sustainable then your sir, are a grade a moron.

please expand on your thesis. examples would be great.


Examples of the effect of industrialized society,

http://webecoist.momtastic.com/2010/04/15/ghost-towns-places-abandon ed -due-to-disasters-pics/

This is a silly web list, you get the idea. Areas of former industrialized areas of civilization are already uninhabitable.
 
2014-03-16 11:48:00 AM
1-media-cdn.foolz.us
 
2014-03-16 11:48:02 AM

mr lawson: Click Click D'oh: FormlessOne: *sticks fingers in years, shouts "LALALALALALALA" to drown out scary things...*

Where did I say such things shouldn't be studied?  I didn't, so go light your strawman on fire.

NASAs mandate is to shoot people and things into space in the name of science and conduct kick arse atmospheric research, not sociology and economics. We've got other people for that.  If NASA doesn't want to do it's job, it's time to defund them.

ever consider that living and working in space might...just might...have economic and sociology implications and in order to properly model them ya kindda need a reference model?

and what would earthly problems have to do with that? do you even read what you write?
 
2014-03-16 11:48:13 AM

Rozotorical: Explain that industrialized society or the post industrialized society we mostly live in the west is not the planet earth?

fark where do I begin.


ahhh...WESTERN society. You left out that little bit. In that aspect then, you are correct.
However, keep in mind what changes will happen to those societies that are not ind/post-ind currently(esp Africa) in the next 40 years. What are they shooting for? A western style society, no?
 
2014-03-16 11:48:25 AM

Gone In 26 Minutes: Rozotorical: mr lawson: Gone In 26 Minutes: And 35+ years ago, people were saying the same thing - except it was during the Cold War era which was also supersrsbsns that people thought couldn't be avoided. For decades now, we've supposedly been on the brink of some catastrophe or another caused by  something.

oh i get that. Trust me. I get it. Even as I type this and everyday I wake up, I critically wonder to myself, "'Am I right? Did I miss something in the data? The world has been spinning for thousands of years and just by miracle it is going to fall apart when I am alive? Occam's razor."
And yet it seems to be the case.

The world does not equal industrialized civilization. If you think industrial and post industrial life styles are sustainable then your sir, are a grade a moron.

How do you figure? Industrialization is a very new thing in our species' history so it's hard to say either way. If we rely on a finite resource, then no, it isn't sustainable - but that's been the case throughout history for every animal. What industrialization has done is make the process faster and more efficient. The idea is taking what we've learned and applying it to the same sort of rapid renewal and/or rapid reproduction of the things we need. See also: modern agriculture. It's really amazing what kind of shiat you can do with a few hundred years worth of technology that just keeps growing more sophisticated.


So, your idea is that we will create a wonder to fix the already existing disasters that are currently largely ignored?
 
2014-03-16 11:49:04 AM

Delay: TV's Vinnie: I've been hearing this doom & gloom since the early 70's, and yet we're still here, and there's still plenty of Big Macs to go around.

Big Macs are part of the problem. "60% of the world's agricultural land is used for beef production, yet beef accounts for less than 2% of the calories that are consumed throughout the world." FAO UN


And again, we should have already been extinct twenty years ago if these Doctor Downers were right.
 
2014-03-16 11:49:23 AM

mr lawson: Gunther: Elites eventually consume too much

see...that right there is one of the arguments i have against this study. Wealthy do not consume too much. They consume too little as a percentage of income and wealth.


I think you're equating the term "Elites" as used in this study with the idea of the "1-percenters" currently being used in the US to describe wealth distribution.

In this study, you, as a middle-class (or higher) American, are an Elite. The guy in Mumbai who sweeps the floor of the factory where they make your shoes - getting the equivalent of $2 a day - is a "Commoner."
 
2014-03-16 11:49:35 AM
They would have gotten more mileage from the study if the title was...

The Final Countdown...
 
2014-03-16 11:53:09 AM

stirfrybry: and what would earthly problems have to do with that? do you even read what you write?


well..ok..let's say somebody builds a large spacestation. self-sustaining but with finite resources.
How will it govern itself? What will be the method of allocation of scarce resource between the people be?
 
2014-03-16 11:53:17 AM

mr lawson: Rozotorical: Explain that industrialized society or the post industrialized society we mostly live in the west is not the planet earth?

fark where do I begin.

ahhh...WESTERN society. You left out that little bit. In that aspect then, you are correct.
However, keep in mind what changes will happen to those societies that are not ind/post-ind currently(esp Africa) in the next 40 years. What are they shooting for? A western style society, no?


Currently industrializing societies rely 100% on post industrial society. If you some how think that saying Africa, the continent that has huge range of technology from post industrial to tribal, is not heavenly influenced by post industrial societies, western and Asian then you just being silly.

  If you think acts of resource waste and incredibly dangerous pollutions are not rampant in any industrial society then you are being even sillier.
 
2014-03-16 11:53:31 AM

Felgraf: Gone In 26 Minutes: And 35+ years ago, people were saying the same thing - except it was during the Cold War era which was also supersrsbsns that people thought couldn't be avoided. For decades now, we've supposedly been on the brink of some catastrophe or another caused by something.

Um, you realize we wer really, REALLY close to basically nuking most human life off the earth *SEVERAL* times in the cold war, right?

And there were a few instances where it seems like *sheer chance* (Guy that was not supposed to be there that day making the call not to launch, etc) kept the world from being radically altered by nuclear warfare?


So you agree with him. It didn't happen.
 
2014-03-16 11:53:51 AM

patagoniantoothfish: But don't worry - NASA have also recorded a series of cryptic messages that we can open at various stages of the collapse to help guide us through various crises and thus shorten the period of darkness and chaos.


You're saying the Foundation of our Empire isn't going to necessarily crumble?
 
2014-03-16 11:54:03 AM

TV's Vinnie: Delay: TV's Vinnie: I've been hearing this doom & gloom since the early 70's, and yet we're still here, and there's still plenty of Big Macs to go around.

Big Macs are part of the problem. "60% of the world's agricultural land is used for beef production, yet beef accounts for less than 2% of the calories that are consumed throughout the world." FAO UN

And again, we should have already been extinct twenty years ago if these Doctor Downers were right.


Society collapse doesn't equal extinction.
 
2014-03-16 11:54:23 AM

Rozotorical: Gone In 26 Minutes: Rozotorical: mr lawson: Gone In 26 Minutes: And 35+ years ago, people were saying the same thing - except it was during the Cold War era which was also supersrsbsns that people thought couldn't be avoided. For decades now, we've supposedly been on the brink of some catastrophe or another caused by  something.

oh i get that. Trust me. I get it. Even as I type this and everyday I wake up, I critically wonder to myself, "'Am I right? Did I miss something in the data? The world has been spinning for thousands of years and just by miracle it is going to fall apart when I am alive? Occam's razor."
And yet it seems to be the case.

The world does not equal industrialized civilization. If you think industrial and post industrial life styles are sustainable then your sir, are a grade a moron.

How do you figure? Industrialization is a very new thing in our species' history so it's hard to say either way. If we rely on a finite resource, then no, it isn't sustainable - but that's been the case throughout history for every animal. What industrialization has done is make the process faster and more efficient. The idea is taking what we've learned and applying it to the same sort of rapid renewal and/or rapid reproduction of the things we need. See also: modern agriculture. It's really amazing what kind of shiat you can do with a few hundred years worth of technology that just keeps growing more sophisticated.

So, your idea is that we will create a wonder to fix the already existing disasters that are currently largely ignored?


Why not? We've been creating wonders for a while now. You just take them for granted while simultaneously trying to play the role of a Luddite... on the internet. Also, your list has only three examples of environmental hazards created by humans in the western world. The rest are Soviet-era projects that had no oversight and no regulation, the result of war or were caused by natural disasters without human input. I already established industrialization without regulation is hazardous - Soviet-era Russia being a prime example of that. Perhaps India and China in the current age reflect this as well.
 
2014-03-16 11:55:46 AM
Just an interesting point of fact.

If you release a study that says, don't worry guys it's cool, you don't get paid to do follow up studies on ways to fix anything.
 
2014-03-16 11:56:55 AM
If you want to understand who the Elite (over-consumers) are, go look in your garbage cans and fridge for any food that's spoiled, uneaten, and the amount of plastic and other materials that are going to a landfill. Also check around your house for redundant "luxury" items, like "old" cell phones, multiple TVs, George Foreman grills, etc.

Consider that if you randomly picked a human being on Earth, the would be barely getting enough calories in a day, and maybe, just maybe have flip-phone.
 
2014-03-16 11:57:11 AM

mr lawson: Rozotorical: Explain that industrialized society or the post industrialized society we mostly live in the west is not the planet earth?

fark where do I begin.

ahhh...WESTERN society. You left out that little bit. In that aspect then, you are correct.
However, keep in mind what changes will happen to those societies that are not ind/post-ind currently(esp Africa) in the next 40 years. What are they shooting for? A western style society, no?


Also you seem to have leached unto the word western society.  You ignored the larger group post industrial societies. Western society are not the only post industrial societies ffs.
 
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