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(Guardian)   NASA study: We're screwed   (theguardian.com) divider line 256
    More: Scary, NASA, resource extraction, technological change  
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24848 clicks; posted to Main » on 16 Mar 2014 at 10:42 AM (22 weeks ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2014-03-16 08:38:53 AM
Too bad the "wealthy elite"/Republican response will be TL;DR, or write this off as Obammaunist commissioned class warfare tripe.

The word Romanovs comes to mind.
 
2014-03-16 09:46:23 AM
Wait 'til they find out what happens when the Earth is no longer in the habitable zone in a billion years.
 
2014-03-16 10:43:42 AM
Go home NASA, you're drunk
 
2014-03-16 10:45:23 AM
Great.. another study using faulty premise and data.. just like.. ummm.. what was that thing?

/It'll come to me
 
2014-03-16 10:47:42 AM
Needs Obvious tag.
 
2014-03-16 10:48:06 AM
What's the mother of invention?  I can't remember..
 
2014-03-16 10:48:38 AM
deadwildroses.files.wordpress.com
 
2014-03-16 10:49:31 AM
community.us.playstation.com
 
2014-03-16 10:50:14 AM
FTA:  "... accumulated surplus is not evenly distributed throughout society, but rather has been controlled by an elite. The mass of the population, while producing the wealth, is only allocated a small portion of it by elites, usually at or just above subsistence levels...the Elites eventually consume too much, resulting in a famine among Commoners that eventually causes the collapse of society  "

Dang, there's gonna be a lot of WHARGARBL on Fox when they hear about this study.
 
2014-03-16 10:52:03 AM
Come on Earth, just hold your shiat together for another 40 years!
 
2014-03-16 10:53:56 AM

Gunther: Elites eventually consume too much


see...that right there is one of the arguments i have against this study. Wealthy do not consume too much. They consume too little as a percentage of income and wealth.
 
2014-03-16 10:54:24 AM
FTFA:  "A new study sponsored by Nasa's Goddard Space Flight Center has highlighted the prospect that global industrial civilisation could collapse in coming decades due to unsustainable resource exploitation and increasingly unequal wealth distribution."

Time to defund NASA.  Seems they've completely forgotten what their mission is supposed to be.
 
2014-03-16 10:54:48 AM
NASA used to be about space.  If it's going to turn in to (or has already become) yet another PC entity doing uninteresting stuff that others could do, then how about closing it down.  I'll miss it, but seeing it wither away into a global political mission is nauseating.
 
2014-03-16 10:55:00 AM
Why is NASA studying economics and social psychology?

And spell civilization like a real 'murican or your argument is invalid.
 
2014-03-16 10:55:53 AM
yeah, NASA says a lot of things
 
2014-03-16 10:56:02 AM

Loucifer: Come on Earth, just hold your shiat together for another 40 years!


buddy...in 40 years the shiat will be hitting the fan so hard everybody will be covered.
/actually expecting it to start in 35yrs
 
2014-03-16 10:56:41 AM

CruJones: Why is NASA studying economics and social psychology?


hahahaha...really?
 
2014-03-16 10:57:15 AM
As I've said repeatedly, whether you believe or not in climate change, or wealth inequity, or social justice, just doesn't matter - the window of opportunity in which we could've slowed or stopped the upcoming events passed some time ago. It's simply too late. The only question is "how long will it take?" I'm looking at about 30-50 years, for my WAG, with the current decline speeding up in about 10 years or so. Rising water levels, decreasing resources, increasing wealth inequity, means that, sooner or later, the have nots are going to die to keep the haves in kibble and curtains. 

Nightjars: What's the mother of invention?  I can't remember..


Must've missed the part in the article where NASA reminds folks that "technological change can raise the efficiency of resource use, but it also tends to raise both per capita resource consumption and the scale of resource extraction, so that, absent policy effects, the increases in consumption often compensate for the increased efficiency of resource use."

In other words, this isn't a problem out of which you can simply invent your way. Oddly enough, less, not more, is the solution here, but no one wants to hear that, not in a culture that values materialism and conspicuous consumption as its cornerstone.
 
2014-03-16 10:58:30 AM
Go home, Nasa, you're drunk...
 
2014-03-16 10:59:00 AM
They named the model...  HANDY?  It's HANDY that's telling us this?
 
2014-03-16 10:59:12 AM

Click Click D'oh: FTFA:  "A new study sponsored by Nasa's Goddard Space Flight Center has highlighted the prospect that global industrial civilisation could collapse in coming decades due to unsustainable resource exploitation and increasingly unequal wealth distribution."

Time to defund NASA.  Seems they've completely forgotten what their mission is supposed to be.


*sticks fingers in years, shouts "LALALALALALALA" to drown out scary things...*
 
2014-03-16 10:59:36 AM
Guess now we'll see republicans trying to reverse Obamacare AND Nasa.

The cynical part of me thinks the wealthy elite have totally figured this out already and are skimming the wealth and resources in order to hunker down their families for the next few generations of resource wars.

I'm regretting having kids now, for their sake, not mine.
 
2014-03-16 11:01:34 AM
http://www.forbes.com/sites/joelkotkin/2012/05/30/whats-really-behind - europes-decline-its-the-birth-rates-stupid/

This is the main problem.
/remember capitalism only works with continuous growth.
 
2014-03-16 11:01:38 AM
But don't worry - NASA have also recorded a series of cryptic messages that we can open at various stages of the collapse to help guide us through various crises and thus shorten the period of darkness and chaos.
 
2014-03-16 11:01:59 AM
The Sun will come up tomorrow,
 
2014-03-16 11:02:25 AM

CruJones: Why is NASA studying economics and social psychology?


Why did NASA invent the non-stick frying pan? And Tang and velcro? And adult diapers that keep fresh for a week?
 
2014-03-16 11:03:40 AM

FormlessOne: *sticks fingers in years, shouts "LALALALALALALA" to drown out scary things...*


Where did I say such things shouldn't be studied?  I didn't, so go light your strawman on fire.

NASAs mandate is to shoot people and things into space in the name of science and conduct kick arse atmospheric research, not sociology and economics. We've got other people for that.  If NASA doesn't want to do it's job, it's time to defund them.
 
2014-03-16 11:04:27 AM
We're screwed...who didn't already know this???
 
2014-03-16 11:06:26 AM

Nightjars: What's the mother of invention?  I can't remember..


You can't drive a truck off a cliff and expect to invent a hang glider on the way down.
 
2014-03-16 11:06:46 AM

Click Click D'oh: FormlessOne: *sticks fingers in years, shouts "LALALALALALALA" to drown out scary things...*

Where did I say such things shouldn't be studied?  I didn't, so go light your strawman on fire.

NASAs mandate is to shoot people and things into space in the name of science and conduct kick arse atmospheric research, not sociology and economics. We've got other people for that.  If NASA doesn't want to do it's job, it's time to defund them.


ever consider that living and working in space might...just might...have economic and sociology implications and in order to properly model them ya kindda need a reference model?
 
2014-03-16 11:07:11 AM
I wonder how many great civilizations were warned decades in advance of their impending doom, and the wealthy elites laughed it off and kept on drinking and partying and irrevocably farking things up.

All of them, I suspect.
 
2014-03-16 11:07:43 AM
Exxon's scientists will soon de-bunk this.
 
2014-03-16 11:08:07 AM

Gunther: FTA:  "... accumulated surplus is not evenly distributed throughout society, but rather has been controlled by an elite. The mass of the population, while producing the wealth, is only allocated a small portion of it by elites, usually at or just above subsistence levels...the Elites eventually consume too much, resulting in a famine among Commoners that eventually causes the collapse of society  "

Dang, there's gonna be a lot of WHARGARBL on Fox when they hear about this study.



I think Republicans who want to cut food stamps, etc... are break dancing on a razor's edge. "Entitlements" are the only thing holding this country together, and the minute cuts to entitlements hit the breaking point, a lot of innocent people are going to flip their shiat and start rioting with a lot of collateral damage.

The only solution is to make the people that benefit from these entitlements (Wal-Mart, etc), to start paying in their fair share.  Wal-Mart doesn't wanna pay a living wage? They have to pay the government back for every employee that they have who is eligible for food stamps, Medicaid, etc.  Wal-Mart is not going anywhere. They aren't gonna walk away from BILLIONS in profits because they have to start paying the true cost of operating a business. So make them pay the true cost of operating their business. If it is cheaper for them to just give their workers a raise or give them health care, they will do it; it might be cheaper for them to just pay the government to do it. Give them a choice, but make them pay for it either way.

I am SICK of subsidizing big corporations, and I am SICK of having my tax dollars paying to keep Wal-Mart (and all of those other horrible places) open. Those are the real welfare queens sucking on the government teet.

Occupy Arkansas.
 
2014-03-16 11:08:15 AM

Pharmdawg: and the wealthy elites laughed it off and kept on drinking and partying and irrevocably farking things up.


none...they prepared for it. It was the general masses that didn't
 
2014-03-16 11:09:44 AM
And then NASA said in a loud voice, "Get off my lawn".
 
2014-03-16 11:10:46 AM

zeroman987: I am SICK of subsidizing big corporations, and I am SICK of having my tax dollars paying to keep Wal-Mart (and all of those other horrible places) open. Those are the real welfare queens sucking on the government teet.


while i agree with you, even implementing these type of changes won't stop (nor even slow down) the coming crash of the world.
 
2014-03-16 11:11:49 AM
NASA funded? Um, no. Some idiots doing a study based on a NASA model.
Society didn't collapse after the fall of Rome; it just changed. And it will again.

/but if everyone gets a handy, I'm ok with it.
 
2014-03-16 11:11:51 AM

Gunther: FTA:  "... accumulated surplus is not evenly distributed throughout society, but rather has been controlled by an elite. The mass of the population, while producing the wealth, is only allocated a small portion of it by elites, usually at or just above subsistence levels...the Elites eventually consume too much, resulting in a famine among Commoners that eventually causes the collapse of society  "

Dang, there's gonna be a lot of WHARGARBL on Fox when they hear about this study.


Probably not. They will just ignore it.

Scholars have known the pattern of typical collapse described in the NASA study for years. "The end of nations or empires need not be due to dramatic events, to invading hordes or conquering armies." Example is the Hittites. A search for serious strains in Hittite society is easy to find in their written history. Disunity, excessive control of wealth by the top stratum of Hittite society, political disintegration and famine suffered by common workers. (It's well known how to match archeological findings with famine.) The battle for control of copper mines with Assyria just finished off a weakened nation. (Collapse of the Bronze Age, Robbins)

As Jared Diamond puts it, during collapses the elites starve last.
 
2014-03-16 11:12:04 AM

mr lawson: ever consider that living and working in space might...just might...have economic and sociology implications and in order to properly model them ya kindda need a reference model?


Stretch Armstrong is proud of you.
 
2014-03-16 11:12:09 AM
All the fellows in this thread saying that NASA should be defunded because it's lost the plot might want to consider the way that this NASA study is a meta example of the HANDY model described in the article.

So there's justification either way for disbanding NASA for losing its original purpose.
 
2014-03-16 11:12:50 AM

mr lawson: Loucifer: Come on Earth, just hold your shiat together for another 40 years!

buddy...in 40 years the shiat will be hitting the fan so hard everybody will be covered.
/actually expecting it to start in 35yrs


And 35+ years ago, people were saying the same thing - except it was during the Cold War era which was also supersrsbsns that people thought couldn't be avoided. For decades now, we've supposedly been on the brink of some catastrophe or another caused by  something.

World's still turning and civilization's still intact.

Doomsaying has never done anything except profit the doomsayers - either tangibly with money or otherwise with attention to projects  they want done. In some cases, this can be a good thing (see: emphasis and money put into renewable and cleaner energy sources,) but in others it can be the foundation of a scam (see: 'carbon credits.')

In regards to global climate change, one thing that is going to determine a lot of the future is how currently industrializing countries regulate themselves. If they have the same sort of regulation as the Industrial Revolution had (i.e. none,) we might be in for a rough time. It's really not a matter of 'are things changing?' It's more a matter of 'where is the breaking point?' The reality seems to be that the people studying it don't really know. They can make some good, educated guesses as well as predict what will happen as a result of hitting that breaking point, but right now, all they can say is 'the breaking point exists and hitting it will be bad.' That is pretty much the summary of TFA. How the up-and-coming countries handle themselves and what they pump into the environment will definitely determine whether we see that point sooner or later.
 
2014-03-16 11:14:41 AM
It is impossible to predict economic collapses. If it were possible, NASA would be able to invest their money accordingly and wouldn't need to worry about getting their budget increased.

And why is NASA studying that, anyway?
 
2014-03-16 11:15:43 AM

patagoniantoothfish: But don't worry - NASA have also recorded a series of cryptic messages that we can open at various stages of the collapse to help guide us through various crises and thus shorten the period of darkness and chaos.


Ya, but it all breaks down when the unpredictable psychic shows up.
 
2014-03-16 11:16:18 AM

Click Click D'oh: FormlessOne: *sticks fingers in years, shouts "LALALALALALALA" to drown out scary things...*

Where did I say such things shouldn't be studied?  I didn't, so go light your strawman on fire.

NASAs mandate is to shoot people and things into space in the name of science and conduct kick arse atmospheric research, not sociology and economics. We've got other people for that.  If NASA doesn't want to do it's job, it's time to defund them.


NASA is supposed to estimate their own socio-economic impacts; this study probably came out of something related to that. Although somehow I doubt the original intent was to claim that civilization will inevitably collapse. That seems like the scientists decided to go off on a tangent.
 
2014-03-16 11:16:29 AM
I've been hearing this doom & gloom since the early 70's, and yet we're still here, and there's still plenty of Big Macs to go around.
 
2014-03-16 11:16:53 AM
This article is too long to read.  Can someone just read it and let me know if I need to buy lots of homebrewing supplies to help me survive the "Collapse?"
 
2014-03-16 11:17:28 AM
Whelp, time to get the bug out gear ready and a cabin in the Appalachians.

I got experience raising chickens and horses, all I need is someone with more agrarian skills. Any volunteers?
 
2014-03-16 11:18:44 AM

lorosammy: This article is too long to read.  Can someone just read it and let me know if I need to buy lots of homebrewing supplies to help me survive the "Collapse?"


If these figures are correct, you should be able to barter the resulting hooch for women.
 
2014-03-16 11:21:17 AM

Gone In 26 Minutes: And 35+ years ago, people were saying the same thing - except it was during the Cold War era which was also supersrsbsns that people thought couldn't be avoided. For decades now, we've supposedly been on the brink of some catastrophe or another caused by  something.


oh i get that. Trust me. I get it. Even as I type this and everyday I wake up, I critically wonder to myself, "'Am I right? Did I miss something in the data? The world has been spinning for thousands of years and just by miracle it is going to fall apart when I am alive? Occam's razor."
And yet it seems to be the case.
 
2014-03-16 11:21:24 AM
Or maybe their calculations are wrong because they used metric dollars.
 
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