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(Huffington Post UK)   United Sates secretary of state John Kerry and Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov yuck it up and tell old cold war jokes at Crimea meeting ending   (huffingtonpost.co.uk) divider line 3
    More: Unlikely, Sergey Lavrov, John Kerry, Crimean, russian foreign minister, Russians, Ambassadors of the United States, London Today, russian embassy  
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1167 clicks; posted to Politics » on 14 Mar 2014 at 5:19 PM (27 weeks ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2014-03-14 05:42:00 PM
2 votes:
Heard a Ukraine expert say this was a huge blunder by Putin and could even knock him out as Russia's leader in the next 6-18 months.  Forget the pressure from the West, Crimea gets 75% of it's income from tourism.  Of that 75%, 25% is from Russia and 75% from eastern Ukraine.  The Ukrainians aren't going to go there, and if the area experiences bombings, the Russians aren't going to go there.

So Russia will be stuck with a giant economic disaster that will bleed the country of cash they don't have.

Good luck with that.
2014-03-14 09:15:23 PM
1 votes:
Russia really is opening up a can of worms for itself. First of all, Crimea receives all its water and power from Ukraine. If the Ukrainians cut them off, the Russkies may find themselves in a Berlin airlift scenario, except instead of having to supply just one city, they will have to take care of an entire province. The solution to that of course is to annex the rest of Ukraine, but the Russian army isn't all that big and pulling military units out of restive Muslim territories to occupy Ukraine is going to open them up to the kind of terrorist attacks thy are currently managing to contain only by dint of a massive military presence. Right now the draft in Russia is for twelve months. Let's see how extending the conscription period, and calling back recent veterans, goes over with an already demoralized population.

The Tatars in Crimea are already talking about jihad, cf.:

http://euromaidanpr.wordpress.com/2014/03/13/crimean-tatars-warn-rus si a-of-jihad/comment-page-1/

Simultaneous Muslim uprisings in Crimea, Chechnya, Ingushetia, Dagestan,etc., coupled with a Western sanctions will put an end to Putin's dreams of empire in short order. Of course he can always threaten to go nuclear, but that would mean either fouling his own nest or threatening war with the West over what are after all merely economic measures. In this unlikely scenario I imagine we'd see some sort of military coup by an exasperated officers corps. They may be crazy, but they're not that crazy.
2014-03-14 06:48:39 PM
1 votes:

OdradekRex: The west has pretty much ceded Crimea to Russia.  What they are trying to prevent is Ukraine losing the eastern half of the country.  Putin is waiting to see how much resistance he gets on Crimea to decide if he'll move his troops in for another annexation.


Not really.  What they've done is gathered together the relevant heads of state of the West and said "We're not going to instigate a shooting war. Instead, we're going to bankrupt the farkers."

And that's exactly what's going to happen before it's all said and done.  Russian business has already pulled their assets from the West, voluntarily enacting what the West was going to do by initiating asset seizures.  That being, isolating Russian business from the global market.

As for the gas issue, well, winter's almost over and Germany is quite capable of kicking their nuclear reactors back online if need be, while Norway has promised to cover short-term energy needs.  And by shutting off the gas to the West, Russia will be effectively cutting their own throat.  They need western dollars far far far more than Europe needs that fuel now that winter is almost over.

Russia may well get to keep the Crimea region, but it's going to result in the disemboweling of their economy in the short term and long term.  Russia has NOTHING else other than their LNG sales to Europe when it comes to revenue streams worth mentioning.

That, combined with pushing Ukraine to join NATA as soon as humanly possible, Russia's going to find itself in a financial meltdown and NATO forces parked on their border with Ukraine.

Putin is a farking retard.
 
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