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(Talking Points Memo)   Rasmussen Poll: "Scott Walker is tied with Democrat Mary Burke." So in reality, Walker is actually losing by 3-4 points, right?   ( ) divider line 4
    More: Interesting, Rasmussen poll, Rasmussen, Milwaukee County, Marquette University Law School, dumps  
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572 clicks; posted to Politics » on 13 Mar 2014 at 8:38 AM (1 year ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»

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2014-03-13 09:02:29 AM  
2 votes:
You'd think anyone running against Walker would just run ads showing the chart of the loss of jobs during his tenure.
2014-03-13 09:48:18 AM  
1 vote:

grumpfuff: Muta: It could mean that it is a long time until the election and the poll is meaningless.

Even more amusing is that Walker is leading by about 2%, and the margin of error is 4.5%.

So yea. This poll is literally meaningless.

This is a common misconception. If you're leading in the poll but the lead is within the margin of error, that does not mean that you are actually tied in reality. It merely means there is a small chance that you are tied in reality. If you're leading by 2% with a 4.5% MOE, assuming no sampling error, the odds are ~75% that you are in the lead in reality. Those are still pretty good odds.
2014-03-13 09:17:30 AM  
1 vote:
Keep calm and remember that 538 is coming back in a week.
2014-03-13 08:43:01 AM  
1 vote:
It could mean that it is a long time until the election and the poll is meaningless.
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