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(Talking Points Memo)   Rasmussen Poll: "Scott Walker is tied with Democrat Mary Burke." So in reality, Walker is actually losing by 3-4 points, right?   (talkingpointsmemo.com) divider line 75
    More: Interesting, Rasmussen poll, Rasmussen, Milwaukee County, Marquette University Law School, dumps  
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563 clicks; posted to Politics » on 13 Mar 2014 at 8:38 AM (41 weeks ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2014-03-13 10:59:49 AM  

grumpfuff: Serious Black: grumpfuff: Serious Black: grumpfuff: Muta: It could mean that it is a long time until the election and the poll is meaningless.

Even more amusing is that Walker is leading by about 2%, and the margin of error is 4.5%.

So yea. This poll is literally meaningless.

This is a common misconception. If you're leading in the poll but the lead is within the margin of error, that does not mean that you are actually tied in reality. It merely means there is a small chance that you are tied in reality. If you're leading by 2% with a 4.5% MOE, assuming no sampling error, the odds are ~75% that you are in the lead in reality. Those are still pretty good odds.

I didn't say that just because of the MOE. I said that because of the MOE, that he only had a 2% lead, the election is still a ways off, and Rasmussen.

This is really the best reason to discount the poll, much more so than the fact that the election is eight months away.

Well, if he had..idk..a 40% lead, I probably wouldn't dismiss it as easily. But Rasmussen + 2% lead + 8 monthes?

Not to mention, she's apparently been gaining ground recently.


According to this article, David Dewhurst at one point had an almost 30% lead over Ted Cruz. Even enormous leads aren't always safe.
 
2014-03-13 11:03:17 AM  

lennavan: Ken VeryBigLiar: lennavan: The choice in this election is who do you want running your state -- an asshole or a dumbass?

So kinda like Walker-Barrett all over again?

Tom Barrett wasn't a dumbass.  He's an incredibly nice and smart guy.  WI missed out big time with him.


Tom didn't want it the first go around, he was happy in Milwaukee, his wife had a good job, and he didn't want to uproot his kids but, the party has no one else to run. Then his wife, being a school teacher, was screwed over by Walker and he wanted to run in the recall but was painted into a corner about union politics. The national dems stayed out and the Koch money rolled in and that was all she wrote. If they had talked about the fact the Koch brothers posted ads for power plant workers for state owned power plants before they were given them in no-bid contracts or any other number of screwing over of the state they might have had a chance. Instead, they let the message get away from them.

//full disclosure last time I saw Tom he was eulogizing my grandpa 2 years ago
 
2014-03-13 11:03:32 AM  

grumpfuff: Muta: It could mean that it is a long time until the election and the poll is meaningless.

Even more amusing is that Walker is leading by about 2%, and the margin of error is 4.5%.

So yea. This poll is literally meaningless.


It is meaningless

Too far out, a lot can happen, like Burke could get caught accepting illegal campaign contributions from North Korea and the democrats will sue the state to replace her name on the ballot, or she could get caught with underage prostitutes in the Dominican Republic, or give campaign donors really nice no bid contracts or help criminals seek refuge in the United States

Oh wait, those turned out to be positives for the democrats and they won by large margins.
 
2014-03-13 11:07:57 AM  

dantheman195: grumpfuff: Muta: It could mean that it is a long time until the election and the poll is meaningless.

Even more amusing is that Walker is leading by about 2%, and the margin of error is 4.5%.

So yea. This poll is literally meaningless.

It is meaningless

Too far out, a lot can happen, like Burke could get caught accepting illegal campaign contributions from North Korea and the democrats will sue the state to replace her name on the ballot, or she could get caught with underage prostitutes in the Dominican Republic, or give campaign donors really nice no bid contracts or help criminals seek refuge in the United States

Oh wait, those turned out to be positives for the democrats and they won by large margins.


And Scott Walker's squeaky-clean, eh?
 
2014-03-13 11:09:43 AM  

qorkfiend: dantheman195: grumpfuff: Muta: It could mean that it is a long time until the election and the poll is meaningless.

Even more amusing is that Walker is leading by about 2%, and the margin of error is 4.5%.

So yea. This poll is literally meaningless.

It is meaningless

Too far out, a lot can happen, like Burke could get caught accepting illegal campaign contributions from North Korea and the democrats will sue the state to replace her name on the ballot, or she could get caught with underage prostitutes in the Dominican Republic, or give campaign donors really nice no bid contracts or help criminals seek refuge in the United States

Oh wait, those turned out to be positives for the democrats and they won by large margins.

And Scott Walker's squeaky-clean, eh?


Is there a such a thing as a squeaky clean politician?
 
2014-03-13 11:13:24 AM  

dantheman195: qorkfiend: dantheman195: grumpfuff: Muta: It could mean that it is a long time until the election and the poll is meaningless.

Even more amusing is that Walker is leading by about 2%, and the margin of error is 4.5%.

So yea. This poll is literally meaningless.

It is meaningless

Too far out, a lot can happen, like Burke could get caught accepting illegal campaign contributions from North Korea and the democrats will sue the state to replace her name on the ballot, or she could get caught with underage prostitutes in the Dominican Republic, or give campaign donors really nice no bid contracts or help criminals seek refuge in the United States

Oh wait, those turned out to be positives for the democrats and they won by large margins.

And Scott Walker's squeaky-clean, eh?

Is there a such a thing as a squeaky clean politician?


Barack Obama?
 
2014-03-13 11:27:55 AM  

grumpfuff: Muta: It could mean that it is a long time until the election and the poll is meaningless.

Even more amusing is that Walker is leading by about 2%, and the margin of error is 4.5%.

So yea. This poll is literally meaningless.


If the poll was based on sound methodology, the lead being with the margin of error is not "meaningless" - the margin of error (if using standard statistical rules) would mean that a lead of (approximately) 4.5% would be expected to give a 95% confidence level of winning (or more specifically being in the lead at the time across the full voting population at the time of the poll). A 2% lead with a 4.5% margin of error would still indicate that Walker (in this case) was more likely to win, just not a sure thing - without doing any number crunching my guess would be it would still make Walker about a 2 to 1 favorite (basically because a dead heat be 50%, ~4.5% is 95%, so 2% would be probably be around 70%).
 
2014-03-13 11:32:26 AM  
Wisconsin should elect that bald bear from Great Outdoors. She'd do a better job.
 
2014-03-13 11:52:04 AM  

SirGeorgeBurkelwitzIII: Triple Oak: SirGeorgeBurkelwitzIII: MindStalker: Muta: It could mean that it is a long time until the election and the poll is meaningless.

Actually its pretty interesting. Walker has been polling above Burke for a while. The fact that just as the campaigns are starting to swing up they are suddenly tied is quite interesting.

Either that or a statistical anonymity, Rasmussen isn't know for their quality polling.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/governor/wi/wisconsin_g ov ernor_walker_vs_burke-4099.html#polls

My thoughts exactly, a poll saying they're tied surprised me a lot.

There's no excitement over Burke in this state. Another shirts candidate is going to leave us with Walker again because he has the (R) after his name. He's been a shiatty governor with no achievements or record to run on and he's still going to be re-elected. That says a lot about Wisconsin and the state of our politics. The Democratic Party is really dropping the ball here.

It's another hope beyond hope situation, where Burke is making enough mistakes for the people to pass on her. It's frustrating because this state is going downhill and neither party really cares. Besides, if Burke is elected, there'll still be a Republican-controlled state congress, and we've seen how many fun bills they want to work on...

It's so frustrating living here and watching it happen.  There are so many people in this state who realize how bad he's been, and there's also an ton of people who support him and are simply victims of ignorance and a pretty damn strong propaganda campaign.  Until people actually try to be informed instead of infromed, this same stuff is going to happen.  Walker will lie faster than anybody can fact check him, and he has tens of millions behind him.


It's hard to say someone can be a "victim of ignorance" because there are ways to learn and get answers but only if you choose to look. But otherwise yeah, it's just going to be a giant circle of "Here's what I say" and then little to show for it. And I'm voting for Burke when the time comes but I'm not yet hopeful of a victory. Ignorance is bliss to the people who think Walker is doing a great job; there's a reason we had a recall election (and Boring Barrett didn't help to draw interest in the voting part).
 
2014-03-13 11:55:40 AM  

dantheman195: get caught with underage prostitutes in the Dominican Republic



That one's been discussed here in the Politics Tab enough times that I know it's false.

The other items on your list don't ring a bell, but since you've lost all credibility by repeating a falsehood, I'm going to guess the others are probably false as well.
 
2014-03-13 11:58:21 AM  

dantheman195: or she could get caught with underage prostitutes in the Dominican Republic,


I'm assuming here you are referring to Bob Menendez.

For those of you who don't remember, the Daily Caller accused him of this. The FBI investigated, and not only did they find no evidence, but they also found 3 prostitutes who admitted they had been paid to lie about Menendez.

Assuming the "let criminals in to the US," what actually happened was one of his interns, a registered sex offender, had an expired visa. He was never accused of any wrong-doing by the authorities.
 
2014-03-13 11:58:24 AM  
Usually, yes.

Also, it's early, isn't it?

Finally, are they going to bring in outside monitors to watch the next election?
 
2014-03-13 11:59:24 AM  

grumpfuff: dantheman195: or she could get caught with underage prostitutes in the Dominican Republic,

I'm assuming here you are referring to Bob Menendez.

For those of you who don't remember, the Daily Caller accused him of this. The FBI investigated, and not only did they find no evidence, but they also found 3 prostitutes who admitted they had been paid to lie about Menendez.

Assuming the "let criminals in to the US," what actually happened was one of his interns, a registered sex offender, had an expired visa. He was never accused of any wrong-doing by the authorities. The intern has been arrested.



Left that part out, sorry.
 
2014-03-13 12:30:37 PM  
The WI GOP is cramming through voter disenfranchisement bills left and right in preparation for this one.
 
2014-03-13 12:31:40 PM  

fenianfark: [i47.photobucket.com image 600x340]

He strikes me not only as a horse's arse, but as an incredibly uncharismatic, boring individual with a huge bald spot.


Supposedly all engagements are choreographed so that the cameras cannot view the bald spot. Not sure how that picture got out, you will find very few.
 
2014-03-13 12:44:32 PM  

qorkfiend: I would assume that Burke would have various advisors who would advise against such a fowl play


You think she's chicken?

Her problem isn't that she has no idea what she's talking about, her problem is she has no idea what she's talking about but thinks she does.

qorkfiend: I guess my point is that we're increasingly voting for party platforms instead of individual candidates, and while there might not be a lot of daylight between Walker and Burke in smarts, they are miles apart in terms of platform and policy.


And my point is if Mary Burke is the best the (D)'s can put forward, that says a lot about the poor farking shape the WI (D) party is in.  Thank god I'm not a WI voter anymore, I don't know that I could choke down that turd sandwich.  Anyway, if she wins, don't be shocked if the best you can muster about her term as Governor is a "at least she isn't Scott Walker."
 
2014-03-13 12:56:08 PM  
LouDobbsAwaaaay:


By the way, is your department going to be part of that open house the first weekend of April? I'm thinking of driving to Madison with my sons that Saturday to look at interesting science-y stuff and get out of Milwaukee for a change
 
2014-03-13 01:14:49 PM  

phaseolus: is your department going to be part of that open house the first weekend of April?


Looks like it - 10:00am-2:00pm Saturday April 5.
 
2014-03-13 01:29:39 PM  

grumpfuff: dantheman195: or she could get caught with underage prostitutes in the Dominican Republic,

I'm assuming here you are referring to Bob Menendez.


Assuming the "let criminals in to the US," what actually happened was one of his interns, a registered sex offender, had an expired visa. He was never accused of any wrong-doing by the authorities.


That is another scandal, so many Bob Menendez scandals it is hard to keep track of them all
 
Bf+
2014-03-13 01:34:21 PM  

LouDobbsAwaaaay: phaseolus: is your department going to be part of that open house the first weekend of April?

Looks like it - 10:00am-2:00pm Saturday April 5.



^^^^ going to be the weirdest Fark party ever.
 
2014-03-13 01:52:58 PM  

LouDobbsAwaaaay: phaseolus: is your department going to be part of that open house the first weekend of April?

Looks like it - 10:00am-2:00pm Saturday April 5.



Cool, I just might drag them along and stop by
 
2014-03-13 02:12:00 PM  

dantheman195: grumpfuff: dantheman195: or she could get caught with underage prostitutes in the Dominican Republic,

I'm assuming here you are referring to Bob Menendez.


Assuming the "let criminals in to the US," what actually happened was one of his interns, a registered sex offender, had an expired visa. He was never accused of any wrong-doing by the authorities.

That is another scandal, so many Bob Menendez scandals it is hard to keep track of them all


And all of them have been found out to be nothing.
 
2014-03-13 07:01:54 PM  

Sail The Wide Accountancy: Keep calm and remember that 538 is coming back in a week.


Will it be with Nate Silver?  I ask because I thought the NYT bought the rights to that blog, and he had a pretty serious falling out with them.

Best part was them basically ripping on him and saying he didn't belong there for making the rest of the staff look like a bunch of rank amateurs every time he did anything.  I don't think they were at all cognizant of what they were really saying about themselves.
 
2014-03-13 09:57:22 PM  

lennavan: Anyway, if she wins, don't be shocked if the best you can muster about her term as Governor is a "at least she isn't Scott Walker."


Especially since she won't have either the Senate or Assembly to repeal Walker's measures or advance her agenda.
 
2014-03-14 10:49:23 AM  
Between the ballot stuffing and the sham of voter ID laws they're trying to ram down everyone's throat, I'm hoping it all backfires for Scottie Too Hottie.

I see he's eating a Yoplait yogurt in the picture of this bald spot on the previous page. Too bad there's not any places in Wisconsin that make yogurt...you know, that being the state he represents and all.
 
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