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(Talking Points Memo)   Rasmussen Poll: "Scott Walker is tied with Democrat Mary Burke." So in reality, Walker is actually losing by 3-4 points, right?   (talkingpointsmemo.com) divider line 75
    More: Interesting, Rasmussen poll, Rasmussen, Milwaukee County, Marquette University Law School, dumps  
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562 clicks; posted to Politics » on 13 Mar 2014 at 8:38 AM (27 weeks ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2014-03-13 08:28:46 AM
Wisconsinites apparently like the abuse.
 
2014-03-13 08:40:42 AM
static5.businessinsider.com

No, it means that Walker will win re-election in a landslide. Study it out.
 
2014-03-13 08:43:01 AM
It could mean that it is a long time until the election and the poll is meaningless.
 
2014-03-13 08:45:08 AM

Muta: It could mean that it is a long time until the election and the poll is meaningless.


True, but that mitigates the HORSE RACE! narrative the media feeds upon for every election these days.
 
2014-03-13 08:46:01 AM
It'll be great to watch the Wisconsin GOP repeatedly pimp slap Mary Burke for her business experience in preference of a career politician just two years after their presidential candidate insisted that his business experience made him uniquely qualified for the job.
 
2014-03-13 08:58:42 AM

Serious Black: It'll be great to watch the Wisconsin GOP repeatedly pimp slap Mary Burke for her business experience in preference of a career politician just two years after their presidential candidate insisted that his business experience made him uniquely qualified for the job.


True. That's the M.O.; maybe they should also run on Walker's job creation record and talk about his pro-business policies.
 
2014-03-13 09:02:29 AM
You'd think anyone running against Walker would just run ads showing the chart of the loss of jobs during his tenure.
 
2014-03-13 09:10:13 AM

Tyrone Slothrop: You'd think anyone running against Walker would just run ads showing the chart of the loss of jobs during his tenure.


That doesn't always work....

cache2.allpostersimages.com
 
2014-03-13 09:15:11 AM
Good. Then maybe when he loses, those f*cktards can stop talking about how Scotty "Fetal Alcohol" Walker is the best thing since sliced bread.

Oh, and:

images.dangerousminds.net

Feel free to punch your monitors now...
 
2014-03-13 09:16:54 AM
Sadly Burke is just another shiatty candidate put forth by the Winsconsin Dems in what should be an easy win over a completely failed governor. Instead Burke is a "my shiat doesn't stink" elitist that sunk her biggest trump card by hiring a campaign manager that had previously been convicted for the EXACT same thing that Walker's staff just were. For some unknown reasons the Dems leave Mike Tate in charge of the state party, even after royally and wholly farking up what should have been an easy recall.
 
2014-03-13 09:17:30 AM
Keep calm and remember that 538 is coming back in a week.
 
2014-03-13 09:23:38 AM
My prediction.
1: This election cycle favors republicans
2: This election cycle will be more about low voter turnout than issues
3: No one is going to change how they voted in past elections

Thus: Scott Walker wins reelection with margin of 7-9%

Please, convince me I'm wrong.
 
2014-03-13 09:24:50 AM

FlyinS: Sadly Burke is just another shiatty candidate put forth by the Winsconsin Dems in what should be an easy win over a completely failed governor. Instead Burke is a "my shiat doesn't stink" elitist that sunk her biggest trump card by hiring a campaign manager that had previously been convicted for the EXACT same thing that Walker's staff just were. For some unknown reasons the Dems leave Mike Tate in charge of the state party, even after royally and wholly farking up what should have been an easy recall.


Yeah, unless she comes out and knocks out some great material in the debates this is just an early poll that no one will remember.  Walker's people are getting way more traction out of tying her to Doyle than the cards she's been playing.  Personally I think we should just have this election in June and spare the whole summer and fall of out-of-state ads.
 
2014-03-13 09:27:08 AM

EvilEgg: Wisconsinites apparently like the abuse.


They're just suckers with no self-esteem.
 
2014-03-13 09:36:36 AM

Muta: It could mean that it is a long time until the election and the poll is meaningless.


Even more amusing is that Walker is leading by about 2%, and the margin of error is 4.5%.

So yea. This poll is literally meaningless.
 
2014-03-13 09:38:27 AM

Ken VeryBigLiar: FlyinS: Sadly Burke is just another shiatty candidate put forth by the Winsconsin Dems in what should be an easy win over a completely failed governor. Instead Burke is a "my shiat doesn't stink" elitist that sunk her biggest trump card by hiring a campaign manager that had previously been convicted for the EXACT same thing that Walker's staff just were. For some unknown reasons the Dems leave Mike Tate in charge of the state party, even after royally and wholly farking up what should have been an easy recall.

Yeah, unless she comes out and knocks out some great material in the debates this is just an early poll that no one will remember.  Walker's people are getting way more traction out of tying her to Doyle than the cards she's been playing.  Personally I think we should just have this election in June and spare the whole summer and fall of out-of-state ads.


She's a nobody who is riding her daddy's coattails.  She's got a nice shiny resumé, thanks Dick Burke.  He, by the way, was a spectacular human being, Mary Burke not so much.  The choice in this election is who do you want running your state -- an asshole or a dumbass?
 
2014-03-13 09:39:52 AM

BigBooper: My prediction.
1: This election cycle favors republicans
2: This election cycle will be more about low voter turnout than issues
3: No one is going to change how they voted in past elections

Thus: Scott Walker wins reelection with margin of 7-9%

Please, convince me I'm wrong.



Let's hope there's a sizeable Milwaukee County backlash against their latest election "reform" bullshiat. That would be a good start...
 
2014-03-13 09:40:23 AM

lennavan: The choice in this election is who do you want running your state -- an asshole or a dumbass?


So kinda like Walker-Barrett all over again?
 
2014-03-13 09:48:18 AM

grumpfuff: Muta: It could mean that it is a long time until the election and the poll is meaningless.

Even more amusing is that Walker is leading by about 2%, and the margin of error is 4.5%.

So yea. This poll is literally meaningless.


This is a common misconception. If you're leading in the poll but the lead is within the margin of error, that does not mean that you are actually tied in reality. It merely means there is a small chance that you are tied in reality. If you're leading by 2% with a 4.5% MOE, assuming no sampling error, the odds are ~75% that you are in the lead in reality. Those are still pretty good odds.
 
2014-03-13 09:48:20 AM
Waukesha will stuff the ballot bags to give Walker the win
 
2014-03-13 09:49:02 AM

lennavan: Ken VeryBigLiar: FlyinS: Sadly Burke is just another shiatty candidate put forth by the Winsconsin Dems in what should be an easy win over a completely failed governor. Instead Burke is a "my shiat doesn't stink" elitist that sunk her biggest trump card by hiring a campaign manager that had previously been convicted for the EXACT same thing that Walker's staff just were. For some unknown reasons the Dems leave Mike Tate in charge of the state party, even after royally and wholly farking up what should have been an easy recall.

Yeah, unless she comes out and knocks out some great material in the debates this is just an early poll that no one will remember.  Walker's people are getting way more traction out of tying her to Doyle than the cards she's been playing.  Personally I think we should just have this election in June and spare the whole summer and fall of out-of-state ads.

She's a nobody who is riding her daddy's coattails.  She's got a nice shiny resumé, thanks Dick Burke.  He, by the way, was a spectacular human being, Mary Burke not so much.  The choice in this election is who do you want running your state -- an asshole or a dumbass?


That never stopped Mitt Romney from thinking he's the shiat.
 
2014-03-13 09:51:25 AM
Walker is destined to fail upward, I think. He's a pretty textbook case of it.
 
2014-03-13 09:54:10 AM
did someone say daddy's coat tails?

encrypted-tbn1.gstatic.com
 
2014-03-13 09:56:28 AM

lennavan: Ken VeryBigLiar: FlyinS: Sadly Burke is just another shiatty candidate put forth by the Winsconsin Dems in what should be an easy win over a completely failed governor. Instead Burke is a "my shiat doesn't stink" elitist that sunk her biggest trump card by hiring a campaign manager that had previously been convicted for the EXACT same thing that Walker's staff just were. For some unknown reasons the Dems leave Mike Tate in charge of the state party, even after royally and wholly farking up what should have been an easy recall.

Yeah, unless she comes out and knocks out some great material in the debates this is just an early poll that no one will remember.  Walker's people are getting way more traction out of tying her to Doyle than the cards she's been playing.  Personally I think we should just have this election in June and spare the whole summer and fall of out-of-state ads.

She's a nobody who is riding her daddy's coattails.  She's got a nice shiny resumé, thanks Dick Burke.  He, by the way, was a spectacular human being, Mary Burke not so much.  The choice in this election is who do you want running your state -- an asshole or a dumbass?


Well, there's the part where Burke won't be deliberately destructive to the state in an obvious attempt to sell it lock, stock, and barrel to the highest bidder. That's a pretty significant difference, eh?
 
2014-03-13 10:03:01 AM

whosits_112: Good. Then maybe when he loses, those f*cktards can stop talking about how Scotty "Fetal Alcohol" Walker is the best thing since sliced bread.

Oh, and:

[images.dangerousminds.net image 328x198]

Feel free to punch your monitors now...


img2.wikia.nocookie.net

/words cannot express how much I love this macro
 
2014-03-13 10:06:01 AM
i47.photobucket.com

He strikes me not only as a horse's arse, but as an incredibly uncharismatic, boring individual with a huge bald spot.
 
2014-03-13 10:07:59 AM

Muta: It could mean that it is a long time until the election and the poll is meaningless.


Actually its pretty interesting. Walker has been polling above Burke for a while. The fact that just as the campaigns are starting to swing up they are suddenly tied is quite interesting.

Either that or a statistical anonymity, Rasmussen isn't know for their quality polling.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/governor/wi/wisconsin_g ov ernor_walker_vs_burke-4099.html#polls
 
2014-03-13 10:11:48 AM

Sail The Wide Accountancy: Keep calm and remember that 538 is coming back in a week.


Nate Silver is my hero.

When he analyzed the Wisconsin recall election and gave Walker a sizable percentage chance of winning I listened as Democrats came up with all sorts of arguments why he was wrong. Then when Silver gave Obama the same sort of odds of being reelected, I listened to Republicans make some of those same arguments. The only difference is that Republicans attacked him personally as they slid into deep denial.

Through all of it Nate let his analysis speak for itself. Arguing against him is to argue against math and reality itself.
 
2014-03-13 10:13:40 AM

Ken VeryBigLiar: lennavan: The choice in this election is who do you want running your state -- an asshole or a dumbass?

So kinda like Walker-Barrett all over again?


Tom Barrett wasn't a dumbass.  He's an incredibly nice and smart guy.  WI missed out big time with him.
 
2014-03-13 10:13:57 AM
Didn't Walker die in a fiery crash?
 
2014-03-13 10:14:44 AM

LoneWolf343: whosits_112: Good. Then maybe when he loses, those f*cktards can stop talking about how Scotty "Fetal Alcohol" Walker is the best thing since sliced bread.

Oh, and:

[images.dangerousminds.net image 328x198]

Feel free to punch your monitors now...

[img2.wikia.nocookie.net image 569x576]

/words cannot express how much I love this macro


And words cannot express how much I love you for introducing me to that macro.
/If you're a dude, then that's in a totally platonic way
//If you're a lady, then how YOU doin'?
 
2014-03-13 10:16:20 AM

MindStalker: Muta: It could mean that it is a long time until the election and the poll is meaningless.

Actually its pretty interesting. Walker has been polling above Burke for a while. The fact that just as the campaigns are starting to swing up they are suddenly tied is quite interesting.

Either that or a statistical anonymity, Rasmussen isn't know for their quality polling.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/governor/wi/wisconsin_g ov ernor_walker_vs_burke-4099.html#polls


My thoughts exactly, a poll saying they're tied surprised me a lot.

There's no excitement over Burke in this state. Another shirts candidate is going to leave us with Walker again because he has the (R) after his name. He's been a shiatty governor with no achievements or record to run on and he's still going to be re-elected. That says a lot about Wisconsin and the state of our politics. The Democratic Party is really dropping the ball here.
 
2014-03-13 10:16:33 AM

fenianfark: [i47.photobucket.com image 600x340]

He strikes me not only as a horse's arse, but as an incredibly uncharismatic, boring individual with a huge bald spot.


At least his bald spot isn't boring. https://www.facebook.com/pages/Scott-Walkers-Shiny-Bald-Spot/52488781 4 232413?hc_location=timeline
 
2014-03-13 10:17:18 AM

qorkfiend: Well, there's the part where Burke won't be deliberately destructive to the state in an obvious attempt to sell it lock, stock, and barrel to the highest bidder. That's a pretty significant difference, eh?


She's too stupid to figure out how to do that.  She seriously has no idea what she's doing or what she's talking about.  Scott Walker would sell the state to the highest bidder.  Mary Burke would sell the state to a duck.
 
2014-03-13 10:18:11 AM

SirGeorgeBurkelwitzIII: MindStalker: Muta: It could mean that it is a long time until the election and the poll is meaningless.

Actually its pretty interesting. Walker has been polling above Burke for a while. The fact that just as the campaigns are starting to swing up they are suddenly tied is quite interesting.

Either that or a statistical anonymity, Rasmussen isn't know for their quality polling.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/governor/wi/wisconsin_g ov ernor_walker_vs_burke-4099.html#polls

My thoughts exactly, a poll saying they're tied surprised me a lot.

There's no excitement over Burke in this state. Another shirts candidate is going to leave us with Walker again because he has the (R) after his name. He's been a shiatty governor with no achievements or record to run on and he's still going to be re-elected. That says a lot about Wisconsin and the state of our politics. The Democratic Party is really dropping the ball here.


*shiatty candidate. Not shirts candidate. Damn autocorrect.
 
2014-03-13 10:21:19 AM
Walker will need some big-money donors to pull this one out.
 
2014-03-13 10:21:38 AM

Serious Black: grumpfuff: Muta: It could mean that it is a long time until the election and the poll is meaningless.

Even more amusing is that Walker is leading by about 2%, and the margin of error is 4.5%.

So yea. This poll is literally meaningless.

This is a common misconception. If you're leading in the poll but the lead is within the margin of error, that does not mean that you are actually tied in reality. It merely means there is a small chance that you are tied in reality. If you're leading by 2% with a 4.5% MOE, assuming no sampling error, the odds are ~75% that you are in the lead in reality. Those are still pretty good odds.


I didn't say that just because of the MOE. I said that because of the MOE, that he only had a 2% lead, the election is still a ways off, and Rasmussen.
 
2014-03-13 10:24:01 AM

SirGeorgeBurkelwitzIII: MindStalker: Muta: It could mean that it is a long time until the election and the poll is meaningless.

Actually its pretty interesting. Walker has been polling above Burke for a while. The fact that just as the campaigns are starting to swing up they are suddenly tied is quite interesting.

Either that or a statistical anonymity, Rasmussen isn't know for their quality polling.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/governor/wi/wisconsin_g ov ernor_walker_vs_burke-4099.html#polls

My thoughts exactly, a poll saying they're tied surprised me a lot.

There's no excitement over Burke in this state. Another shirts candidate is going to leave us with Walker again because he has the (R) after his name. He's been a shiatty governor with no achievements or record to run on and he's still going to be re-elected. That says a lot about Wisconsin and the state of our politics. The Democratic Party is really dropping the ball here.


It's another hope beyond hope situation, where Burke is making enough mistakes for the people to pass on her. It's frustrating because this state is going downhill and neither party really cares. Besides, if Burke is elected, there'll still be a Republican-controlled state congress, and we've seen how many fun bills they want to work on...
 
2014-03-13 10:26:43 AM

SirGeorgeBurkelwitzIII: *shiatty candidate. Not shirts candidate. Damn autocorrect.


Thank you. I was sitting here trying to figure out what a "shirts candidate" was.
 
2014-03-13 10:26:59 AM

BigBooper: Please, convince me I'm wrong.


The more Republicans keep opening their yaps, the less people want to vote for them.
 
2014-03-13 10:27:42 AM
Scott Walker is a shiatty candidate.  You'd have to be if you're tied with Mary Burke.

Mary Burke is a shiatty candidate.  You'd have to be if you're tied with Scott Walker.
 
2014-03-13 10:29:51 AM

Ken VeryBigLiar: lennavan: The choice in this election is who do you want running your state -- an asshole or a dumbass?

So kinda like Walker-Barrett all over again?


Really, when hasn't it been between a douche and turd sammich?
 
2014-03-13 10:31:20 AM

grumpfuff: Serious Black: grumpfuff: Muta: It could mean that it is a long time until the election and the poll is meaningless.

Even more amusing is that Walker is leading by about 2%, and the margin of error is 4.5%.

So yea. This poll is literally meaningless.

This is a common misconception. If you're leading in the poll but the lead is within the margin of error, that does not mean that you are actually tied in reality. It merely means there is a small chance that you are tied in reality. If you're leading by 2% with a 4.5% MOE, assuming no sampling error, the odds are ~75% that you are in the lead in reality. Those are still pretty good odds.

I didn't say that just because of the MOE. I said that because of the MOE, that he only had a 2% lead, the election is still a ways off, and Rasmussen.


This is really the best reason to discount the poll, much more so than the fact that the election is eight months away.
 
Bf+
2014-03-13 10:31:46 AM

kkinnison: Waukesha will stuff the ballot bags to give Walker the win


I dunno... Republicans across the state have a lot more eyes on them with the second John Doe investigation that is focusing on his political operations.

On the other hand, since the latest voter ID bill was found to be unconstitutional, Walker is forcing a special session to force through another... and they've already pushed through a bill restricting weekend voting, along with a dozen other voting-related bills.

At the very least, Burke has the talking point that, though he wasn't indicted in the first probe, he should have been, because emails show he was clearly coordinating with the secret illegal network that got three of his highest-level staff sent to prison.
 
2014-03-13 10:32:49 AM

Triple Oak: SirGeorgeBurkelwitzIII: MindStalker: Muta: It could mean that it is a long time until the election and the poll is meaningless.

Actually its pretty interesting. Walker has been polling above Burke for a while. The fact that just as the campaigns are starting to swing up they are suddenly tied is quite interesting.

Either that or a statistical anonymity, Rasmussen isn't know for their quality polling.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/governor/wi/wisconsin_g ov ernor_walker_vs_burke-4099.html#polls

My thoughts exactly, a poll saying they're tied surprised me a lot.

There's no excitement over Burke in this state. Another shirts candidate is going to leave us with Walker again because he has the (R) after his name. He's been a shiatty governor with no achievements or record to run on and he's still going to be re-elected. That says a lot about Wisconsin and the state of our politics. The Democratic Party is really dropping the ball here.

It's another hope beyond hope situation, where Burke is making enough mistakes for the people to pass on her. It's frustrating because this state is going downhill and neither party really cares. Besides, if Burke is elected, there'll still be a Republican-controlled state congress, and we've seen how many fun bills they want to work on...


It's so frustrating living here and watching it happen.  There are so many people in this state who realize how bad he's been, and there's also an ton of people who support him and are simply victims of ignorance and a pretty damn strong propaganda campaign.  Until people actually try to be informed instead of infromed, this same stuff is going to happen.  Walker will lie faster than anybody can fact check him, and he has tens of millions behind him.
 
2014-03-13 10:38:02 AM
You guys have no idea how dumb Wisconsin is getting. Most smart people are leaving. Businesses don't like to come here because of the weather and lack of qualified workers.

Walker represents Wisconsin far better than Burke. I have no doubt he'll win reelection.
 
2014-03-13 10:43:51 AM

kkinnison: Waukesha will stuff the ballot bags to give Walker the win


At least Kathy Nicholas is gone.
That said, I think I'm taking the mile and a half walk to watch the vote count this time.
 
2014-03-13 10:43:56 AM

Rwa2play: BigBooper: Please, convince me I'm wrong.

The more Republicans keep opening their yaps, the less people want to vote for them.


You would think that. But I live in Wisconsin, and I believe that the vast majority of people are blindingly close minded. A video could surface of Scott Walker snorting cocaine off a prostitutes tits.....while raping a young boy.... and signing a bill that legalizes slavery...and .... whatever, you get the idea. But those who voted for Walker in the past will vote for him again.

On the other hand, he's not going to win anyone over to his side. Those that hate Walker do so passionately. In the end, nothing changes.
 
2014-03-13 10:44:26 AM

Serious Black: grumpfuff: Serious Black: grumpfuff: Muta: It could mean that it is a long time until the election and the poll is meaningless.

Even more amusing is that Walker is leading by about 2%, and the margin of error is 4.5%.

So yea. This poll is literally meaningless.

This is a common misconception. If you're leading in the poll but the lead is within the margin of error, that does not mean that you are actually tied in reality. It merely means there is a small chance that you are tied in reality. If you're leading by 2% with a 4.5% MOE, assuming no sampling error, the odds are ~75% that you are in the lead in reality. Those are still pretty good odds.

I didn't say that just because of the MOE. I said that because of the MOE, that he only had a 2% lead, the election is still a ways off, and Rasmussen.

This is really the best reason to discount the poll, much more so than the fact that the election is eight months away.


Well, if he had..idk..a 40% lead, I probably wouldn't dismiss it as easily. But Rasmussen + 2% lead + 8 monthes?

Not to mention, she's apparently been gaining ground recently.
 
2014-03-13 10:48:20 AM

lennavan: qorkfiend: Well, there's the part where Burke won't be deliberately destructive to the state in an obvious attempt to sell it lock, stock, and barrel to the highest bidder. That's a pretty significant difference, eh?

She's too stupid to figure out how to do that.  She seriously has no idea what she's doing or what she's talking about.  Scott Walker would sell the state to the highest bidder.  Mary Burke would sell the state to a duck.


I would assume that Burke would have various advisors who would advise against such a fowl play, whereas Walker's advisors are all on board with his plans.

I guess my point is that we're increasingly voting for party platforms instead of individual candidates, and while there might not be a lot of daylight between Walker and Burke in smarts, they are miles apart in terms of platform and policy.
 
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