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(24 Dash)   London has staggering 236 new skyscrapers under construction to join existing architectural marvels such as Nelson's Willie and the Post Office Prick   (24dash.com) divider line 7
    More: Misc, Post Office Prick, post offices, tallest tower, structures, Things Are Looking Up, Southwark  
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631 clicks; posted to Business » on 13 Mar 2014 at 8:25 AM (1 year ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2014-03-13 09:01:04 AM  
I was wondering why I've been getting so many e-mails from recruiters in London lately.
 
2014-03-13 09:06:13 AM  
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skyscraper_Index

Although of course that omen is generally based on height of skyscrapers as opposed to total quantity, but I'd venture a guess that total quantity might be a bad omen as well.

Just ask yourself - what are all of these skyscrapers being built for?  Where is the money coming from?
 
2014-03-13 09:26:32 AM  

MattStafford: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skyscraper_Index

Although of course that omen is generally based on height of skyscrapers as opposed to total quantity, but I'd venture a guess that total quantity might be a bad omen as well.

Just ask yourself - what are all of these skyscrapers being built for?  Where is the money coming from?


I suspect this has a lot more to do with how skittish major developers are and how the total project duration for a skyscraper tends to be not much shorter than the time between a recovery and the next crash.

The second the economy looks like it's in danger developers will cancel pretty much every project that isn't already under construction and they won't start them up again until the economy is well on the way to recovery. Then they have to go through a few years of planning, a year or so of design, a bidding process than can take a year or so and then a year or more of construction.

So if you get a bust every 15 years or so the High Rise industry will come to a complete stop in Year 0, will take until about Year 4-5 before anyone gets back into it and until about Year 7 the only projects that get built will be mothballed projects from the last boom where the developer already had the land and planning sorted, which takes you at least to the halfway point in the next economic boom-bust cycle.

To add to that - the industry is HUGE, so when developers pull the plug on almost every new project it has a major effect on the economy and helps drive recessions further into the ground, exacerbating the conditions that made the economy poor enough that they pulled the plug in the first place.
 
2014-03-13 09:52:30 AM  

MattStafford: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skyscraper_Index

Although of course that omen is generally based on height of skyscrapers as opposed to total quantity, but I'd venture a guess that total quantity might be a bad omen as well.

Just ask yourself - what are all of these skyscrapers being built for?  Where is the money coming from?


They are being built because there is a shortage of housing in Britain in general and in London in particular. The money is coming from everywhere, since the crisis London property has been the preferred place for the world's rich to stash their loot. First is was the rich Greeks and Italians, then the Tunisians, Egyptians and Syrians, now you can bet your life that there's millions flowing from the Ukraine into London property. Oh and the Russians and Chinese and Arabs, always those three, especially the Chinese these day.

On many levels you'd expect this is a bubble, but because so many of the buyers are unleveraged and are looking for a safe haven from political volatility, the scary thought is that this isn't a bubble and that prices will remain permanently high. In any case, I hope that they build the fark out of the place and that prices crash so that ordinary people will be able to afford somewhere to live.
 
2014-03-13 09:53:38 AM  
236 skyscrapers, why not just build one huge one?
 
2014-03-13 10:23:59 AM  

Bad_Seed: In any case, I hope that they build the fark out of the place and that prices crash so that ordinary people will be able to afford somewhere to live.


The problem with this is that when prices crash every developer in the country will halt all work possible, which will have an immediate effect on all laborers, steel fixers, steel erectors, plumbers, electricians, HVAC installers, carpenters, HGV drivers, Heavy Equipment operators, crane operators, surveyors, civil/mechanical/structural engineers, steel fabricators, welders, and so on with major knock-on effects into industries those people spend their money in.

So the houses will be cheap but a lot of ordinary people won't have jobs and the people who do have jobs will see a lot of downward pressure on their wages.
 
2014-03-13 10:45:05 AM  

MattStafford: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skyscraper_Index

Although of course that omen is generally based on height of skyscrapers as opposed to total quantity, but I'd venture a guess that total quantity might be a bad omen as well.

Just ask yourself - what are all of these skyscrapers being built for?  Where is the money coming from?


Are you thinking about the situation in China and getting a déjà vu vibe too?
 
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