If you can read this, either the style sheet didn't load or you have an older browser that doesn't support style sheets. Try clearing your browser cache and refreshing the page.

(Yahoo)   Think you can pick a perfect bracket? Warren Buffet is betting $1B you can't. Free registration now open to the first 15 million people who want to try and prove him wrong   (tournament.fantasysports.yahoo.com) divider line 46
    More: Cool, Quicken Loans, brackets  
•       •       •

1244 clicks; posted to Sports » on 12 Mar 2014 at 2:31 PM (19 weeks ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



46 Comments   (+0 »)
   
View Voting Results: Smartest and Funniest
 
2014-03-12 01:28:42 PM
1:2^67

2^67=147,573,952,589,676,412,928
 
2014-03-12 02:39:27 PM
Ah, what the hell. Doesn't cost me any of my own money to take a whack at it.
 
2014-03-12 02:41:30 PM
He's doing it again?  Damn.

Also, WB isn't putting down $1B of his own money.  Quicken has taken out an insurance policy, betting nobody will pick a perfect bracket.  I worked for a company that did the same thing for $10M and $100M the next year.  PERFECT use of venture capital.  That and private jets to NYC for an evening at Scores.
 
2014-03-12 02:42:39 PM
I would give it a shot if there was a Canada option.
 
2014-03-12 02:45:57 PM

foo monkey: He's doing it again?  Damn.

Also, WB isn't putting down $1B of his own money.  Quicken has taken out an insurance policy, betting nobody will pick a perfect bracket.  I worked for a company that did the same thing for $10M and $100M the next year.  PERFECT use of venture capital.  That and private jets to NYC for an evening at Scores.


Yahoo is in on it too. I saw the odds are something like 9 quintillion...

"If you're holding out hope that this is the year you're finally going to break through and get that perfect NCAA tournament bracket, you may need to wait a while. Like, a few billion years. The odds of you filling out a perfect bracket this year are a staggering  1 in 9.2 quintillion. "

Thanks Google.

/Still playing
//Top 20 win 100k each.
 
2014-03-12 02:47:57 PM
Interesting way of for Quicken loans to get info on 15 million potential customers..

/will give it a shot and I'm not much of a basketball fan
 
2014-03-12 02:58:29 PM
But a perfect bracket has happened before right?  The odds posted above are fine if someone is flipping a coin for each pick but a LOT of games can be guessed correctly without too much risk...thinking any of the 1 vs 16 games.  Anyway, I always here about someone who picked a great bracket only be beaten by a perfect bracket...probably BS.
 
2014-03-12 02:59:18 PM
I mean 'hear' of course...
 
2014-03-12 03:02:43 PM

RichPoorBoy: But a perfect bracket has happened before right?  The odds posted above are fine if someone is flipping a coin for each pick but a LOT of games can be guessed correctly without too much risk...thinking any of the 1 vs 16 games.  Anyway, I always here about someone who picked a great bracket only be beaten by a perfect bracket...probably BS.


A perfect bracket has never been officially confirmed by a reputable source.
 
2014-03-12 03:02:46 PM
elitedaily.com

These don't look so bad.

Compared to the ones I used when I was in Middleschool, that looked like the ones Lisa used in the Simpsons.

/Oh, you mean brackets?
 
2014-03-12 03:04:39 PM

CygnusDarius: [elitedaily.com image 640x414]

These don't look so bad.

Compared to the ones I used when I was in Middleschool, that looked like the ones Lisa used in the Simpsons.

/Oh, you mean brackets?


She looks like she has a bunch of resistors in her mouth.
 
2014-03-12 03:06:30 PM
Clever Warren Buffet / Berkshire Hathaway

The sign up requires you to answer questions about your home and current mortgage.

Since its not likely that anyone will hit the $1,000,000,000 prize, they are paying $2,000,000 (20 $100,000 prizes) for all kinds of consumer data regarding mortgages and housing.

It also helps that they will get your address.

It also helps that Berkshire Hathaway is now getting really serious in real estate too.
 
2014-03-12 03:07:00 PM
Man, it's impossible to find for some reason, but there was a skit from the night Peyton Manning hosted SNL and did that United Way "commercial".

It was like an ESPN Sportcenter contest for the best March Madness brackets, and it was down to Manning's character and an Amy Pohler character. He's got charts and stats and like weather reports for picking his team. Pohler's character is picking teams because of their colors, because some cute guy is on the team, because her ex-roommate had a bulldog(And she was a biatch), so she hates whatever team has the bulldog mascot, shiat like that. Her brackets are covered in hearts and girly stuff.

At the end of it, Amy Pohler's character has perfect picks, and Petyton's character is off by exactly one game. It's farking hilarious, but I can never find it online... It would have been perfect to go with the story though...
 
2014-03-12 03:13:35 PM
No thanks, I'm gonna stick with the lotto if I want a longshot at huge pile of cash. Voluntarily putting myself on the list to receive their marketing offers is a big 'ol non-starter for me.  At least with the lotto, you only get the annoying phone calls if you win.

Also, with $1 billion on the line, that's a pretty big incentive for people to mess with the tournament. I'm not a conspiracy theorist by nature, but I've seen people do some pretty messed up stuff to their fellow man for a whole lot less than that.
 
2014-03-12 03:14:04 PM

vonmatrices: Clever Warren Buffet / Berkshire Hathaway

The sign up requires you to answer questions about your home and current mortgage.

Since its not likely that anyone will hit the $1,000,000,000 prize, they are paying $2,000,000 (20 $100,000 prizes) for all kinds of consumer data regarding mortgages and housing.

It also helps that they will get your address.

It also helps that Berkshire Hathaway is now getting really serious in real estate too.


It's Quicken Loans that wants that information (though they may be sharing it with Berk as part of the premium payment).

Aside from that, Buffett's interest is in insuring the risk that it will actually payout (Quicken pays a premium to Berkshire and Berkshire pays $1 billion to the winner--presuming all the rules were followed, exactly).  Presuming net refinancing fees exceed the cost of the premium it's a good deal for all (Quicken Loans probably couldn't afford to front the billion dollar prize alone)
 
2014-03-12 03:14:30 PM

RichPoorBoy: But a perfect bracket has happened before right?  The odds posted above are fine if someone is flipping a coin for each pick but a LOT of games can be guessed correctly without too much risk...thinking any of the 1 vs 16 games.  Anyway, I always here about someone who picked a great bracket only be beaten by a perfect bracket...probably BS.


You're right in that most games are not 50-50.  So the odds get a lot lower. Let's say upsets happen 20% of the time.

1/2 ^67 = 1 in 1.4757395e+20
1/1.25 ^ 67 = 1 in  3111507.63893

So if 3 million people play, than 1 of them will probably get the right bracket.  It's not that simple (Think of rolling 6 6-sided dice.  6 sides, 6 dice, it *seems* like the odds of rolling a 6 are 100%, but it's fairly trivial to confirm that this isn't the case), but over a long enough time period, even the unlikely becomes the existing.

This is also why Penthouse Letters exist.  The odds that YOU personally will ever have a threesome with twins (or any of the other things that happen in those letters) is pretty much 0, the odds that someone in America (n = 310 Million) has had a threesome with twins is pretty much 100%.

Derren Brown flips heads 10 times in a row -  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X1uJD1O3L08
And how he did it -  http://youtu.be/RAiBdiqVjvw?t=2m
 
2014-03-12 03:14:33 PM
Finally, my time machine will pay off.

/As soon as I invent it.
//Which can be whenever.
///Because, you know, time travel.

////Wait, that was the same comment I made in the last Warren Buffet bracket thread.
//Maybe I've already invented time travel.
//Slashies!
 
2014-03-12 03:15:17 PM

Lost Thought 00: RichPoorBoy: But a perfect bracket has happened before right?  The odds posted above are fine if someone is flipping a coin for each pick but a LOT of games can be guessed correctly without too much risk...thinking any of the 1 vs 16 games.  Anyway, I always here about someone who picked a great bracket only be beaten by a perfect bracket...probably BS.

A perfect bracket has never been officially confirmed by a reputable source.


In the last 5 or so years that I've tracked, no bracket on ESPN or Yahoo has even survived the first full round of games unscathed. If anyone posts the autistic kid on CBS Sportsline, they should be smacked upside the head until they admit that the office pool manager program CBS used allowed a commissioner to change picks after the lock time.

RichPoorBoy: But a perfect bracket has happened before right?  The odds posted above are fine if someone is flipping a coin for each pick but a LOT of games can be guessed correctly without too much risk...thinking any of the 1 vs 16 games.  Anyway, I always here about someone who picked a great bracket only be beaten by a perfect bracket...probably BS.


If you're 2-out-of-3 at picking, your odds are still 1 in 628 billion. If you have an 80% chance on each game, your odds are now only 1 in 3.1 million.
 
2014-03-12 03:19:31 PM

RminusQ: If you're 2-out-of-3 at picking, your odds are still 1 in 628 billion. If you have an 80% chance on each game, your odds are now only 1 in 3.1 million.


And if you are that good at picking, you stand to make much more money betting in vegas
 
2014-03-12 03:26:55 PM

Lost Thought 00: RminusQ: If you're 2-out-of-3 at picking, your odds are still 1 in 628 billion. If you have an 80% chance on each game, your odds are now only 1 in 3.1 million.

And if you are that good at picking, you stand to make much more money betting in vegas


Only if it is versus a point spread. Are you under the assumption vegas gives 1 to 1 odds? A lot of people can pick 66% of the winning team. Harder versus a spread.
 
2014-03-12 03:28:07 PM

MyRandomName: Lost Thought 00: RminusQ: If you're 2-out-of-3 at picking, your odds are still 1 in 628 billion. If you have an 80% chance on each game, your odds are now only 1 in 3.1 million.

And if you are that good at picking, you stand to make much more money betting in vegas

Only if it is versus a point spread. Are you under the assumption vegas gives 1 to 1 odds? A lot of people can pick 66% of the winning team. Harder versus a spread.


Even picking money line, if you can pick at 80% or greater rate you stand to make a lot of money
 
2014-03-12 03:29:31 PM

Langston: Also, with $1 billion on the line, that's a pretty big incentive for people to mess with the tournament. I'm not a conspiracy theorist by nature, but I've seen people do some pretty messed up stuff to their fellow man for a whole lot less than that.


I shall publish my bracket and offer every player on the losing teams 1 million dollars if I win the billion.  Book it, done
 
2014-03-12 03:30:30 PM
Only one person can possibly win this thing:

encrypted-tbn1.gstatic.com
 
2014-03-12 03:46:05 PM
According to the Terms, the $1 billion is only paid out for a perfect bracket as a result of a stampede of wild elephants running through your house between 3:55 and 4 PM on the Fourth of July, during a hailstorm.
 
2014-03-12 03:47:48 PM

NewWorldDan: Langston: Also, with $1 billion on the line, that's a pretty big incentive for people to mess with the tournament. I'm not a conspiracy theorist by nature, but I've seen people do some pretty messed up stuff to their fellow man for a whole lot less than that.

I shall publish my bracket and offer every player on the losing teams 1 million dollars if I win the billion.  Book it, done


That's an (approximate) amount of $780,000,000 paid to the players. (65 teams not winning the tourney x 12 players on each team)

So you end up with a net of $220M. Not a bad day's work.
 
2014-03-12 03:48:24 PM

OtherLittleGuy: According to the Terms, the $1 billion is only paid out for a perfect bracket as a result of a stampede of wild elephants running through your house between 3:55 and 4 PM on the Fourth of July, during a hailstorm.


Good thing I have a copy of Jumanji laying around.
 
2014-03-12 03:52:58 PM

The_Six_Fingered_Man: NewWorldDan: Langston: Also, with $1 billion on the line, that's a pretty big incentive for people to mess with the tournament. I'm not a conspiracy theorist by nature, but I've seen people do some pretty messed up stuff to their fellow man for a whole lot less than that.

I shall publish my bracket and offer every player on the losing teams 1 million dollars if I win the billion.  Book it, done

That's an (approximate) amount of $780,000,000 paid to the players. (65 teams not winning the tourney x 12 players on each team)

So you end up with a net of $220M. Not a bad day's work.


Taxes are a biatch.  I don't know what the windfall/gambling laws are, but the marginal income rates in the USA today are 43.4% (Obamacare Medicaid tax).  Let's say State income taxes average out to 5% top rate.  So you're losing 48.4%.  (And at a billion dollars, the lower rates on the first million are rounding errors).

Or half.

So of your $500 Million, you're paying out $780 Million.
 
2014-03-12 03:57:48 PM

meyerkev: The_Six_Fingered_Man: NewWorldDan: Langston: Also, with $1 billion on the line, that's a pretty big incentive for people to mess with the tournament. I'm not a conspiracy theorist by nature, but I've seen people do some pretty messed up stuff to their fellow man for a whole lot less than that.

I shall publish my bracket and offer every player on the losing teams 1 million dollars if I win the billion.  Book it, done

That's an (approximate) amount of $780,000,000 paid to the players. (65 teams not winning the tourney x 12 players on each team)

So you end up with a net of $220M. Not a bad day's work.

Taxes are a biatch.  I don't know what the windfall/gambling laws are, but the marginal income rates in the USA today are 43.4% (Obamacare Medicaid tax).  Let's say State income taxes average out to 5% top rate.  So you're losing 48.4%.  (And at a billion dollars, the lower rates on the first million are rounding errors).

Or half.

So of your $500 Million, you're paying out $780 Million.


I like this plan Ray!  Let's do this!
 
2014-03-12 04:00:03 PM

meyerkev: The_Six_Fingered_Man: NewWorldDan: Langston: Also, with $1 billion on the line, that's a pretty big incentive for people to mess with the tournament. I'm not a conspiracy theorist by nature, but I've seen people do some pretty messed up stuff to their fellow man for a whole lot less than that.

I shall publish my bracket and offer every player on the losing teams 1 million dollars if I win the billion.  Book it, done

That's an (approximate) amount of $780,000,000 paid to the players. (65 teams not winning the tourney x 12 players on each team)

So you end up with a net of $220M. Not a bad day's work.

Taxes are a biatch.  I don't know what the windfall/gambling laws are, but the marginal income rates in the USA today are 43.4% (Obamacare Medicaid tax).  Let's say State income taxes average out to 5% top rate.  So you're losing 48.4%.  (And at a billion dollars, the lower rates on the first million are rounding errors).

Or half.

So of your $500 Million, you're paying out $780 Million.


Would depend on if the $1B is considered gambling income or prize income. With the former, you could at least deduct losses against the winnings. With the latter, it's pretty much "shut up, pay tax." You might even be able to make the argument that the payments represented gambling losses, since you bet on them to "win," but they didn't. Crazily, the only players you din't "bet" on actually won the whole thing.

Also, this would have the (un?)intended consequence of making every single player in the dance ineligible and therefore the games would be forfeit and the prize unlikely to be paid out.

Also, Wichita State FTW
 
2014-03-12 04:12:50 PM
Am I getting this right? To enter just a regular bracket you need to give Yahoo an America phone number so they can text you crap? I've been playing this (and fantasy hockey) for years and years on Yahoo and never came across this before.
 
2014-03-12 04:19:44 PM
I'm gonna need a better algorithm.
 
2014-03-12 04:42:53 PM
I couldn't get past the Yahoo sign up bullshiat. Not worth it.
 
2014-03-12 04:59:34 PM

phimuskapsi: foo monkey: He's doing it again?  Damn.

Also, WB isn't putting down $1B of his own money.  Quicken has taken out an insurance policy, betting nobody will pick a perfect bracket.  I worked for a company that did the same thing for $10M and $100M the next year.  PERFECT use of venture capital.  That and private jets to NYC for an evening at Scores.

Yahoo is in on it too. I saw the odds are something like 9 quintillion...

"If you're holding out hope that this is the year you're finally going to break through and get that perfect NCAA tournament bracket, you may need to wait a while. Like, a few billion years. The odds of you filling out a perfect bracket this year are a staggering  1 in 9.2 quintillion. "

Thanks Google.

/Still playing
//Top 20 win 100k each.


CSB

One year, we had a guy get through the first two rounds with a perfect bracket.  Everyone was all, "oh shiat."  He ended up like 12/16 in the third round, but still won first place.  Problem was, he was from Florida.  People from Florida weren't allowed to win prizes, because of FL's stupid bonding laws.  Guy ended up winning first place (no perfect bracket) and lost out on a new truck, huge flatscreen tv, and like $20K in cash.  Claimed he was playing for his son in Alabama.  We sent him a t-shirt.
 
2014-03-12 05:02:20 PM

swahnhennessy: Am I getting this right? To enter just a regular bracket you need to give Yahoo an America phone number so they can text you crap? I've been playing this (and fantasy hockey) for years and years on Yahoo and never came across this before.


The idea is to cut down on multiple entries, since most people don't have multiple cell phones.
 
2014-03-12 05:02:58 PM
Is there a way to do this without signing up for yahoo email?
 
2014-03-12 05:04:59 PM

interstellar_tedium: Is there a way to do this without signing up for yahoo email?


Don't think so. You used to be able to sign in with your facebook or gmail account, but I got an email recently that they're moving away from that and having everyone sign in with a yahoo account from now on.
 
2014-03-12 05:20:23 PM

meyerkev: RichPoorBoy: But a perfect bracket has happened before right?  The odds posted above are fine if someone is flipping a coin for each pick but a LOT of games can be guessed correctly without too much risk...thinking any of the 1 vs 16 games.  Anyway, I always here about someone who picked a great bracket only be beaten by a perfect bracket...probably BS.

You're right in that most games are not 50-50.  So the odds get a lot lower. Let's say upsets happen 20% of the time.

1/2 ^67 = 1 in 1.4757395e+20
1/1.25 ^ 67 = 1 in  3111507.63893

So if 3 million people play, than 1 of them will probably get the right bracket.  It's not that simple (Think of rolling 6 6-sided dice.  6 sides, 6 dice, it *seems* like the odds of rolling a 6 are 100%, but it's fairly trivial to confirm that this isn't the case), but over a long enough time period, even the unlikely becomes the existing.

This is also why Penthouse Letters exist.  The odds that YOU personally will ever have a threesome with twins (or any of the other things that happen in those letters) is pretty much 0, the odds that someone in America (n = 310 Million) has had a threesome with twins is pretty much 100%.

Derren Brown flips heads 10 times in a row -  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X1uJD1O3L08
And how he did it -  http://youtu.be/RAiBdiqVjvw?t=2m


And it's just like the lottery.  The odds are you won't win a jackpot.  But, somehow, some way, someone does win a jackpot every so often, despite the odds.  So, while the odds of you personally winning the Mega Millions on Friday is close to 0, the odds that someone is going to walk away with a piece of that $300+ million jackpot is 1.

That's why statistics are so hard for people to wrap their heads around. "The odds of life happening by random chance are so infinitesimal as to be 0...therefore Goddidit!" *dopesmack*
 
2014-03-12 05:20:31 PM

NewWorldDan: Langston: Also, with $1 billion on the line, that's a pretty big incentive for people to mess with the tournament. I'm not a conspiracy theorist by nature, but I've seen people do some pretty messed up stuff to their fellow man for a whole lot less than that.

I shall publish my bracket and offer every player on the losing teams 1 million dollars if I win the billion.  Book it, done


Might be cheaper to call the officials.  Better TV, too.
 
2014-03-12 05:46:17 PM

foo monkey: phimuskapsi: foo monkey: He's doing it again?  Damn.

Also, WB isn't putting down $1B of his own money.  Quicken has taken out an insurance policy, betting nobody will pick a perfect bracket.  I worked for a company that did the same thing for $10M and $100M the next year.  PERFECT use of venture capital.  That and private jets to NYC for an evening at Scores.

Yahoo is in on it too. I saw the odds are something like 9 quintillion...

"If you're holding out hope that this is the year you're finally going to break through and get that perfect NCAA tournament bracket, you may need to wait a while. Like, a few billion years. The odds of you filling out a perfect bracket this year are a staggering  1 in 9.2 quintillion. "

Thanks Google.

/Still playing
//Top 20 win 100k each.

CSB

One year, we had a guy get through the first two rounds with a perfect bracket.  Everyone was all, "oh shiat."  He ended up like 12/16 in the third round, but still won first place.  Problem was, he was from Florida.  People from Florida weren't allowed to win prizes, because of FL's stupid bonding laws.  Guy ended up winning first place (no perfect bracket) and lost out on a new truck, huge flatscreen tv, and like $20K in cash.  Claimed he was playing for his son in Alabama.  We sent him a t-shirt.


Wow. Just...wow. I would be apocalyptically pissed.
 
2014-03-12 06:32:08 PM

steveGswine: NewWorldDan: Langston: Also, with $1 billion on the line, that's a pretty big incentive for people to mess with the tournament. I'm not a conspiracy theorist by nature, but I've seen people do some pretty messed up stuff to their fellow man for a whole lot less than that.

I shall publish my bracket and offer every player on the losing teams 1 million dollars if I win the billion.  Book it, done

Might be cheaper to call the officials.  Better TV, too.


Hell, David Stern isn't busy these days.  I'm sure he could whip up a script.
 
2014-03-12 06:37:11 PM
It would take psychic power to fill out a perfect bracket.  http://www.uncoveror.com/psychicncaa.htm
 
2014-03-12 10:04:45 PM
Assuming 1) you know nothing about the teams involved besides their seeding and 2) seeding is a fair representation of a team's strength (so that all 1 seeds are indistinguishable), the most likely bracket is the one with no upsets at all. If p(x, y) is the probability an x-seeded team beats a y-seeded team, the odds of getting a perfect bracket with that sheet is

[p(1, 16) * p(2, 15) * p(3, 14) * ... * p(8, 9)]^4 * [p(1, 8) * p(2, 7) * ... * p(4, 5)]^4 * [p(1, 4) * p(2, 3)]^4 * [p(1, 2)]^4 * (1/2)^3

This will be waaaaay less of a longshot than 1 in 2^63, but still pretty big. I couldn't find a chart of these probabilities after 2 minutes of googling, but anyone who cares enough can just dump all the tournament results since 1985 into a spreadsheet and do some sorting.
 
2014-03-12 10:08:16 PM
You have to have a cell-phone in order to get a yahoo account nowadays? How does that company stay in business (other than selling cell phone numbers, I guess...)
 
2014-03-12 11:52:34 PM

proteus_b: You have to have a cell-phone in order to get a yahoo account nowadays? How does that company stay in business (other than selling cell phone numbers, I guess...)


Yahoo is my spam-catcher account.  It's worthless otherwise.
 
2014-03-13 07:51:03 AM

Mentat: proteus_b: You have to have a cell-phone in order to get a yahoo account nowadays? How does that company stay in business (other than selling cell phone numbers, I guess...)

Yahoo is my spam-catcher account.  It's worthless otherwise.


this
 
2014-03-13 11:00:06 AM
 
Displayed 46 of 46 comments

View Voting Results: Smartest and Funniest


This thread is closed to new comments.

Continue Farking
Submit a Link »






Report