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(War on the Rocks)   What are the effects of uncertainty in Afghanistan? We just don't know   (warontherocks.com ) divider line
    More: Interesting, Afghanistan, security agreement, Afghan diaspora, long-term stability, Hamid Karzai, sliding scales, Afghan National Security Forces, Bagram Airfield  
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1356 clicks; posted to Main » on 12 Mar 2014 at 3:55 PM (2 years ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



30 Comments     (+0 »)
 
View Voting Results: Smartest and Funniest
 
2014-03-12 03:58:09 PM  
Sounds like there are some known unknowns.
 
2014-03-12 04:00:17 PM  

theorellior: Sounds like there are some known unknowns.


Are you sure?
 
2014-03-12 04:01:44 PM  
I'm not really sure how I feel about this.
 
2014-03-12 04:02:01 PM  

felching pen: theorellior: Sounds like there are some known unknowns.

Are you sure?


He could be wrong, but it's hard to tell at this time.
 
2014-03-12 04:03:06 PM  
My favorite indecisive phrase heard from a TV talking head...

"Could go up, could go down, could go either way."
 
2014-03-12 04:03:56 PM  
Subby been talking to my boss?

This sounds like one of our staff meetings.
 
2014-03-12 04:08:42 PM  
"There's no earthly way of knowing,
Which direction we are going.
There's no knowing where we're rowing
Or which way the river's flowing.
Is it raining? Is it snowing?
Is a hurricane a-blowing?
Not a speck of light is showing,
So the danger must be growing.
Are the fires of hell a glowing?
Is the grisly reaper mowing?!
Yes! The danger must be growing,
for the rowers keep on rowing.
And they're certainly not showing...
any signs that they are slowing!"

www.retrocrush.com
 
2014-03-12 04:09:46 PM  
But do we know what we don't know?  I mean, yes we have known unknowns, but we also have unknown unknowns, and we don't know how to quantify unknowns and we wouldn't know how to react to them, but we have to know how to prepare and mitigate the risk of the hidden effects of an unknown unknown.
/I need a real job
 
2014-03-12 04:09:50 PM  

theorellior: Sounds like there are some known unknowns.


We know exactly where they are, though. Somewhere east, south, north, or west of an unspecified location.


/Best SecDef EVAR
 
2014-03-12 04:10:57 PM  

theorellior: Sounds like there are some known unknowns.


You don't know that!
 
2014-03-12 04:13:40 PM  
But, WHAT WILL YOU DO??

img.fark.net
 
2014-03-12 04:14:24 PM  

MFAWG: We know exactly where they are, though. Somewhere east, south, north, or west of an unspecified location.


Six weeks, tops.
 
2014-03-12 04:17:31 PM  
 
2014-03-12 04:20:07 PM  

theorellior: MFAWG: We know exactly where they are, though. Somewhere east, south, north, or west of an unspecified location.

Six weeks, tops.


We can start looking for them with the Army we have, in instead of the one we wish we had.
 
2014-03-12 04:20:59 PM  
If we knew then what we didn't know now and we knew it now, then we would have known that we didn't know and would have known to know it.
 
2014-03-12 04:22:38 PM  
unavailable for comment
www.shardcore.org
/or maybe available
 
2014-03-12 04:27:09 PM  
I'd say the effects are: Tribalism, religious fundmentalism, and the growth of the heroin trade.

And the effect of certainty and stability are: Tribalism, religious fundamentalism, and the growth of the heroin trade.
 
2014-03-12 04:29:10 PM  

give me doughnuts: I'd say the effects are: Tribalism, religious fundmentalism, and the growth of the heroin trade.


You forgot fear and surprise.
 
2014-03-12 04:31:45 PM  

theorellior: Sounds like there are some known unknowns.


I was going to go with the whole quote:

"Reports that say that something hasn't happened are always interesting to me, because as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know that we know. There are known unknowns; that is to say, there are things that we now know we don't know. But there are also unknown unknowns - there are things we do not know we don't know."

-Don Rumsfeld

It's actually not such a horrible thought if you actually break it down, IMHO.
 
2014-03-12 04:34:40 PM  
4.bp.blogspot.com
 
2014-03-12 04:35:37 PM  

Geotpf: It's actually not such a horrible thought if you actually break it down, IMHO.


No, it makes perfect sense, but you have to take a moment to parse it. It's like a modern Zen koan.
 
2014-03-12 04:51:01 PM  
Now, write that down in your copybooks. "We just don't know."
Very good.
Now, dispose of the copybook.
Then, go to the supply locker and check out a Besselheim plate.
 
2014-03-12 05:00:23 PM  
All I know is my gut says, "maybe."
 
2014-03-12 05:04:59 PM  
img.fark.net
 
2014-03-12 05:12:25 PM  

suburbanguy: [img.fark.net image 480x270]


Came here for this. Thanks, Suburbanguy.
 
2014-03-12 05:16:13 PM  
We're not certain about uncertainty.
 
2014-03-12 05:19:17 PM  
i512.photobucket.com
 
2014-03-12 05:38:20 PM  
24.media.tumblr.com
 
2014-03-12 07:47:43 PM  
You can tell me; I'm a doctor.
 
2014-03-13 04:11:51 AM  
See Iraq for possible outcome
 
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