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(Comedy Central) Video Aasif Mandvi scores another "You know the cameras are on moment" Plus travels to the third world country of Tennesee   (thedailyshow.cc.com ) divider line
    More: Video, third world, Knoxville, editions, cameras  
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7963 clicks; posted to Video » on 07 Mar 2014 at 1:49 PM (2 years ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2014-03-07 02:42:08 PM  
And, I think the geographic region known as "the South" should always be referred to as "the third world." At least, until there are some signs of progress.


/resides in partially-third-world Kentucky
 
2014-03-07 02:44:43 PM  

Mithiwithi: ItchyMcDoogle: yes we have the best healthcare in the world but only if you can afford it, but if you can't there is a nice pine box with your name on it.


Please. As if someone who can't afford health insurance can afford a coffin.  If their next of kin are  lucky, they might be able to get government assistance for a cremation.


All you need to do is nail six death panels together. Et voila! Pine box.
 
2014-03-07 02:44:54 PM  

MelGoesOnTour: When I was in college (mid 80's) I did not have health insurance yet when I had to go to the doctor or dentist the bills did not kill me. Flash forward to today when a trip to the doctor to check my blood runs several hundred dollars. Over time what has happened is that even though insurance pays for most of that cost, it seems that the insurance industry has built a system wherein providers can charge what they want to because they know they'll be reimbursed and the patient will not go broke (since insurance pays the bills). These days a simple kidney-stone removal procedure might easily run $25K (mine did) whereas 20 years ago it was a fraction of that. In other words, these days if you either cannot afford insurance or if work does not provide it for you...you are simply screwed.


One factor behind this is that insurer HMO or PPO contracts are the only force that pushes prices downwards. So if you were insured and went to an "in-network" doctor and lab, they would have agreed (in advance, with the insurer) to bill probably about 1/5 of what you were billed. Then the insurance picks up whatever percentage of that and the patient pays the rest.

Yep - in the USA, the uninsured pay the most for health care.

Price controls - it's how other countries keep prices more or less sane, and the only thing that works in health care. Free-market competition doesn't work when the prices are opaque, information is this asymmetric, and there are big barriers to entry (not just anyone can draw blood, order tests, prescribe drugs, manufacture drugs, etc., mostly for very good reasons).
 
2014-03-07 02:47:05 PM  

ItchyMcDoogle: Yayyy my first politics green light! But sad that this is the highlight of my day.

So I guess the Republican argument is that yes we have the best healthcare in the world but only if you can afford it, but if you can't there is a nice pine box with your name on it. Oh and dont be poor, Slacker. There are people working 40 plus hours a week that cant afford healthcare. They are hardly slackers but the GOP considers them moochers. Free Market must be code for i'm an uncaring A-hole now.

Im also shocked that a 3rd world medical unit has to be called on here in america is not considered news and that I had to learn it on the Daily Show. Way to go Tennessee for sticking it to Obama at the expense of your people


Yayyy your first politics green light misspells Tennessee!
 
2014-03-07 02:47:06 PM  

Baz744: Opinion question for anyone interested in answering:

You won't generally see hardline conservatives admitting that the laissez-faire nation they envision will be very very bad for some people. That many people will be reduced to homelessness and hunger; that many kids will go without education; that many people will lose access even to rudimentary health care, etc.

Normally they paper all that over with bs like "if we just pass large enough tax cuts for the rich, poor people will be able to afford to send their own kids to private school!" They often claim that private charity will pick up all the slack in other deficient areas.

So what percentage of conservatives do you think actually believe their own bullsh*t?


I think most of them, like 95% believe 95% of it. It's their programed mind set, it just like extreme religious types, they only believe what supports their own beliefs, they avoid thinking anything completely threw as it might injure their beliefs. It's what some people call faith, but I prefer to call brain washing.
 
2014-03-07 02:47:46 PM  

EyeballKid: And, I think the geographic region known as "the South" should always be referred to as "the third world." At least, until there are some signs of progress.


/resides in partially-third-world Kentucky


Most of Jefferson County is at least second world.
 
2014-03-07 02:49:17 PM  

ManateeGag: I can't believe he said "just stop being poor" - is it that easy?


Yep. You poors are just too lazy to keep a job for a year.
 
2014-03-07 02:49:32 PM  
Tenn/Alabama/Mississippi are all in a race to the bottom.
 
2014-03-07 02:50:12 PM  

purple kool-aid and a jigger of formaldehyde: Dimensio: Once again, the liberally biased Daily Show practices their underhanded tactic of researching the claims made by an interviewee, and also of quoting the interviewee in full context.

Liberal MSM and their gotcha questions. How dare they ask questions about what we really said?


The press should only ask the questions we want to answer, so that they report the news the way we want it reported.
 
2014-03-07 02:54:10 PM  

Baz744: Opinion question for anyone interested in answering:

You won't generally see hardline conservatives admitting that the laissez-faire nation they envision will be very very bad for some people. That many people will be reduced to homelessness and hunger; that many kids will go without education; that many people will lose access even to rudimentary health care, etc.

Normally they paper all that over with bs like "if we just pass large enough tax cuts for the rich, poor people will be able to afford to send their own kids to private school!" They often claim that private charity will pick up all the slack in other deficient areas.

So what percentage of conservatives do you think actually believe their own bullsh*t? Surely some percentage of them have been hooked by the rhetoric. But some other percentage well know the predictable consequences of of shutting down public assistance programs. They just parrot the bullsh*t because they know voters don't want the society they envision.

And who are they, demographically? Is there any way to identify them? What else do we know about them? Etc.

I normally assume it is most of them. I doubt the sincerity of any rightist who claims shutting down public assistance programs will be really good for the poor, or at least won't really hurt them. It's just too implausible a belief to think millions and millions of conservatives actually believe.


I think a large fraction of them do really believe the BS. Remember when Karl friggin' Rove, the poster child for cynical manipulation, broke down on election night because Ohio didn't follow the "unskewed polls" model? Supposedly even Mitt Romney himself was surprised that the election wasn't close.

Once you get into a reality bubble, because beliefs needn't have any tether to reality, they can get pretty strange pretty quick.

Tomorrow's politicians come from today's base, and I think the right-wing reality bubble has been around long enough that new GOP politicians believe in it. Look at Republican State legislatures actually trying to ban abortion, instead of keeping it around as a wedge issue. If they succeed, they just defanged a big motivator for their people to keep turning out at election time, so they probably just actually want to ban abortion.
 
2014-03-07 02:55:51 PM  
I crushed a disc in my back playing football when I was 16. I have lived almost my entire life without health insurance. I always worked for myself because suddenly not being able to walk for a week at a time limits employment options. I am now 52, and a couple of years ago my back got so bad I simply couldn't work anymore.

I was homeless for a time. Living out of my truck, and camping in national forests. To my good fortune my SSI claim went through in record time, 62 days from application to acceptance. Practically the speed of light when it comes to disability applications.

I now live a very humble life, living large on the $710 I get in SSI, and the $75 a month I get in SNAP. And I will tell you, I am so grateful for the assistance that allows me at least a little dignity in life.

However,to those of you who simply think I'm some sort of taker who is scamming the system. Fark you with a rusty baseball bat!!!

Not only will I continue to live my life just to piss people like this off, but I have gained the ultimate in what these people hate. I'm poor, and I have not only found a way to have a roof over my head and enough to eat, but I have also found something I thought I would never fund in this life. Contentment.
 
2014-03-07 02:56:39 PM  

Linux_Yes: Tenn/Alabama/Mississippi are all in a race to the bottom.


Only if they legalize gay marriage.
 
2014-03-07 02:58:08 PM  

brigid_fitch: brigid_fitch: ItchyMcDoogle: Yayyy my first politics green light! But sad that this is the highlight of my day.

So I guess the Republican argument is that yes we have the best healthcare in the world but only if you can afford it, but if you can't there is a nice pine box with your name on it. Oh and dont be poor, Slacker. There are people working 40 plus hours a week that cant afford healthcare. They are hardly slackers but the GOP considers them moochers. Free Market must be code for i'm an uncaring A-hole now.

Im also shocked that a 3rd world medical unit has to be called on here in america is not considered news and that I had to learn it on the Daily Show. Way to go Tennessee for sticking it to Obama at the expense of your people

This is what I get for not previewing first.  Meant to add this but Fark threw it away:
[img.fark.net image 335x150]


Hate it when that happens..But is there no edit feature here or am I not seeing it..Or is it only for total farkers. Or is it a easter egg when you type "Duke Sucks"

On the subject the GOP may hem and haw about what a nut job Grayson is but hes not wrong. That is the GOP plan. Every interview with a republican with that subject(ish) they will A) change the subject B) get pissed off and attack the mainstream media C) talk about emergency rooms that make a higher burden on the taxpayer or say that magical charities will take care of our sick but never offering any examples of that.

One thing a Republican will never EVER do is offer a doable realistic solution that provides affordable good healthcare to all americans. Or even try. But then again sometimes I feel that they get joy when the % 53 plus suffer
 
2014-03-07 02:59:39 PM  

duke3522: I crushed a disc in my back playing football when I was 16. I have lived almost my entire life without health insurance. I always worked for myself because suddenly not being able to walk for a week at a time limits employment options. I am now 52, and a couple of years ago my back got so bad I simply couldn't work anymore.

I was homeless for a time. Living out of my truck, and camping in national forests. To my good fortune my SSI claim went through in record time, 62 days from application to acceptance. Practically the speed of light when it comes to disability applications.

I now live a very humble life, living large on the $710 I get in SSI, and the $75 a month I get in SNAP. And I will tell you, I am so grateful for the assistance that allows me at least a little dignity in life.

However,to those of you who simply think I'm some sort of taker who is scamming the system. Fark you with a rusty baseball bat!!!

Not only will I continue to live my life just to piss people like this off, but I have gained the ultimate in what these people hate. I'm poor, and I have not only found a way to have a roof over my head and enough to eat, but I have also found something I thought I would never fund in this life. Contentment.


You probably have a fridge too.
 
2014-03-07 03:01:00 PM  

Gaseous Anomaly: Baz744: Opinion question for anyone interested in answering:

You won't generally see hardline conservatives admitting that the laissez-faire nation they envision will be very very bad for some people. That many people will be reduced to homelessness and hunger; that many kids will go without education; that many people will lose access even to rudimentary health care, etc.

Normally they paper all that over with bs like "if we just pass large enough tax cuts for the rich, poor people will be able to afford to send their own kids to private school!" They often claim that private charity will pick up all the slack in other deficient areas.

So what percentage of conservatives do you think actually believe their own bullsh*t? Surely some percentage of them have been hooked by the rhetoric. But some other percentage well know the predictable consequences of of shutting down public assistance programs. They just parrot the bullsh*t because they know voters don't want the society they envision.

And who are they, demographically? Is there any way to identify them? What else do we know about them? Etc.

I normally assume it is most of them. I doubt the sincerity of any rightist who claims shutting down public assistance programs will be really good for the poor, or at least won't really hurt them. It's just too implausible a belief to think millions and millions of conservatives actually believe.

I think a large fraction of them do really believe the BS. Remember when Karl friggin' Rove, the poster child for cynical manipulation, broke down on election night because Ohio didn't follow the "unskewed polls" model? Supposedly even Mitt Romney himself was surprised that the election wasn't close.

Once you get into a reality bubble, because beliefs needn't have any tether to reality, they can get pretty strange pretty quick.

Tomorrow's politicians come from today's base, and I think the right-wing reality bubble has been around long enough that new GOP politicians believe in it. Look at Republican State legislatures actually trying to ban abortion, instead of keeping it around as a wedge issue. If they succeed, they just defanged a big motivator for their people to keep turning out at election time, so they probably just actually want to ban abortion.


Ugh, I don't know what's more depressing; the video or the fact that you're completely right...
 
2014-03-07 03:04:51 PM  
2013hoaxblog.s3.amazonaws.com
 
2014-03-07 03:05:01 PM  

impaler: Hubris? From a right-winger?


It's more likely than you centipede.
 
2014-03-07 03:05:36 PM  

Gaseous Anomaly: Remember when Karl friggin' Rove, the poster child for cynical manipulation, broke down on election night because Ohio didn't follow the "unskewed polls" model? Supposedly even Mitt Romney himself was surprised that the election wasn't close.


Interesting point.
 
2014-03-07 03:06:37 PM  

Gaseous Anomaly: Baz744: Opinion question for anyone interested in answering:

You won't generally see hardline conservatives admitting that the laissez-faire nation they envision will be very very bad for some people. That many people will be reduced to homelessness and hunger; that many kids will go without education; that many people will lose access even to rudimentary health care, etc.

Normally they paper all that over with bs like "if we just pass large enough tax cuts for the rich, poor people will be able to afford to send their own kids to private school!" They often claim that private charity will pick up all the slack in other deficient areas.

So what percentage of conservatives do you think actually believe their own bullsh*t? Surely some percentage of them have been hooked by the rhetoric. But some other percentage well know the predictable consequences of of shutting down public assistance programs. They just parrot the bullsh*t because they know voters don't want the society they envision.

And who are they, demographically? Is there any way to identify them? What else do we know about them? Etc.

I normally assume it is most of them. I doubt the sincerity of any rightist who claims shutting down public assistance programs will be really good for the poor, or at least won't really hurt them. It's just too implausible a belief to think millions and millions of conservatives actually believe.

I think a large fraction of them do really believe the BS. Remember when Karl friggin' Rove, the poster child for cynical manipulation, broke down on election night because Ohio didn't follow the "unskewed polls" model? Supposedly even Mitt Romney himself was surprised that the election wasn't close.

Once you get into a reality bubble, because beliefs needn't have any tether to reality, they can get pretty strange pretty quick.

Tomorrow's politicians come from today's base, and I think the right-wing reality bubble has been around long enough that new GOP politicians believe in it. Look at Republican State legislatures actually trying to ban abortion, instead of keeping it around as a wedge issue. If they succeed, they just defanged a big motivator for their people to keep turning out at election time, so they probably just actually want to ban abortion.


What is amazing about the election night breakdown was that I was playing along at home, watching the states fall into place one by one, exactly as Nate Silver predicted. It's not like accurate projections weren't available if you looked in the right places.
 
2014-03-07 03:06:44 PM  

someonelse: This was one of those TDS that I couldn't even laugh at. It just made me sad....

 
2014-03-07 03:07:09 PM  

ZZ9 Plural Z Alpha: EyeballKid: And, I think the geographic region known as "the South" should always be referred to as "the third world." At least, until there are some signs of progress.


/resides in partially-third-world Kentucky

Most of Jefferson County is at least second world.


Communist?

/makes sense, in a way
 
2014-03-07 03:08:16 PM  

Pocket Ninja: I've been trying to understand since last night why that guy would have willingly come onto the Daily Show when this was the only possible way his interview could have ended. What the fark did he think was going to happen?


i.ytimg.com
 
2014-03-07 03:09:03 PM  

TerminalEchoes: Yayyy your first politics green light misspells Tennessee!


Oh goddamit! I knew it was too good to be true...ugh..
 
2014-03-07 03:10:17 PM  

MayoSlather: Paul Baumer: What's horrifying to me is not that there are people this amoral in the world, but APPARENTLY THE POPULATION OF TENNESSEE IS OK WITH THE STATUS QUO, SINCE THEY KEEP RE-ELECTING THESE GUYS.

Christ on a cracker, it's almost hard to feel sorry for people this goddamned dumb.

They blame it all on the federal government while the state government bends them over deliverance style.



www.themoviegourmet.com

What that state government looks like
/Ya shur gotta purty mouth...
 
2014-03-07 03:10:41 PM  

purple kool-aid and a jigger of formaldehyde: duke3522: I crushed a disc in my back playing football when I was 16. I have lived almost my entire life without health insurance. I always worked for myself because suddenly not being able to walk for a week at a time limits employment options. I am now 52, and a couple of years ago my back got so bad I simply couldn't work anymore.

I was homeless for a time. Living out of my truck, and camping in national forests. To my good fortune my SSI claim went through in record time, 62 days from application to acceptance. Practically the speed of light when it comes to disability applications.

I now live a very humble life, living large on the $710 I get in SSI, and the $75 a month I get in SNAP. And I will tell you, I am so grateful for the assistance that allows me at least a little dignity in life.

However,to those of you who simply think I'm some sort of taker who is scamming the system. Fark you with a rusty baseball bat!!!

Not only will I continue to live my life just to piss people like this off, but I have gained the ultimate in what these people hate. I'm poor, and I have not only found a way to have a roof over my head and enough to eat, but I have also found something I thought I would never fund in this life. Contentment.

You probably have a fridge too.


Yep, and it keeps the beer my son buys me nice and cold!

/oh the horrors
//a poor has beer
///if a poor isn't miserable he/she is getting way to much help
 
2014-03-07 03:12:12 PM  

Superjew: Republican Outreach 2014:  STOP BEING POOR

Truly they have the bestest ideas.  They just need to communicate them better.


If you rephrase that as "JUST BE MORE BOOTSTRAPPY!" it comes across much better.  See?  Communication problem solved!
 
2014-03-07 03:12:27 PM  

Mad_Radhu: What is amazing about the election night breakdown was that I was playing along at home, watching the states fall into place one by one, exactly as Nate Silver predicted. It's not like accurate projections weren't available if you looked in the right places.


I wonder if Nate is going to keep a similar blog for 2016. I hope so.

There actually is an incentive for him not to, though. He's successfully predicted the electoral vote outcome of two elections now, one perfectly, and the other almost perfectly (Indiana unexpectedly went for Obama in 2008). That gives him a lot of credibility. If he doesn't get 2016 as close as the last two, he could lose some of that.

On the other hand, his methods seem reliable so far.
 
2014-03-07 03:15:06 PM  

tjsands1118: I think most of them, like 95% believe 95% of it. It's their programed mind set, it just like extreme religious types, they only believe what supports their own beliefs, they avoid thinking anything completely threw as it might injure their beliefs. It's what some people call faith, but I prefer to call brain washing.


I do believe there's a core of insiders who know they're bullsh*tting, though.
 
2014-03-07 03:18:07 PM  

Baz744: That gives him a lot of credibility. If he doesn't get 2016 as close as the last two, he could lose some of that.

On the other hand, his methods seem reliable so far.


The funny thing is that he doesn't even pretend to have some sort of secret sauce. He just harmonizes the basic statisticals and doesn't try to lie to himself and/or everybody else about what the numbers are actually saying.
 
2014-03-07 03:19:30 PM  
It'd be easier to stop being poor if you'd stop being a douchebag.
 
2014-03-07 03:20:34 PM  

incendi: Baz744: That gives him a lot of credibility. If he doesn't get 2016 as close as the last two, he could lose some of that.

On the other hand, his methods seem reliable so far.

The funny thing is that he doesn't even pretend to have some sort of secret sauce. He just harmonizes the basic statisticals and doesn't try to lie to himself and/or everybody else about what the numbers are actually saying.


And the sad thing is that some people just can't fathom someone doing that.
 
2014-03-07 03:22:48 PM  

Baz744: Mad_Radhu: What is amazing about the election night breakdown was that I was playing along at home, watching the states fall into place one by one, exactly as Nate Silver predicted. It's not like accurate projections weren't available if you looked in the right places.

I wonder if Nate is going to keep a similar blog for 2016. I hope so.

There actually is an incentive for him not to, though. He's successfully predicted the electoral vote outcome of two elections now, one perfectly, and the other almost perfectly (Indiana unexpectedly went for Obama in 2008). That gives him a lot of credibility. If he doesn't get 2016 as close as the last two, he could lose some of that.

On the other hand, his methods seem reliable so far.


He's been tweeting a lot about relaunching the 538 site as a high quality blog, and he is hiring a lot of new writers and analysts. He's going to be focusing on politics, sports, science and lifestyle. It should launch in time for the fall elections.
 
2014-03-07 03:23:52 PM  

DamnYankees: jlawn001: I'm a regular watcher of TDS.
Last night was one of those moments when I'm thinking that... this can't be true.  There has to be some overdubbing or a stunt double of Mandvi when they show the back of his head, and the reaction shot is Mandvi actually asking a question like: "Tell me the best qualities of Hitler..." and then the just splice in the stupified response.
But then when that dolt actually said, "Stop being poor."

I mean.  Really?
His job is a tv pundit?

All Daily Show interviews are real this way. I remember reading a piece about how they operate - basically, the Daily Show will never splice up a question and answer because its too easy to sue them. When they interview people, they ALWAYS have to say the question and capture the answer in the same take, and then play them together on the air, otherwise they'll be sued for defamation (or whatever). Apparently it can lead to annoying interviews when Samantha Bee or whoever has to repeat a question 10 times, because they refuse to let guests answer a question unless it has been asked immediately prior to the answer.


I guess I give people too much credit.  I mean, there must be something up... no one that stupid would subject themselves to this.
Or... not
 
2014-03-07 03:23:55 PM  

Baz744: Opinion question for anyone interested in answering:

You won't generally see hardline conservatives admitting that the laissez-faire nation they envision will be very very bad for some people. That many people will be reduced to homelessness and hunger; that many kids will go without education; that many people will lose access even to rudimentary health care, etc.

Normally they paper all that over with bs like "if we just pass large enough tax cuts for the rich, poor people will be able to afford to send their own kids to private school!" They often claim that private charity will pick up all the slack in other deficient areas.

So what percentage of conservatives do you think actually believe their own bullsh*t? Surely some percentage of them have been hooked by the rhetoric. But some other percentage well know the predictable consequences of of shutting down public assistance programs. They just parrot the bullsh*t because they know voters don't want the society they envision.

And who are they, demographically? Is there any way to identify them? What else do we know about them? Etc.

I normally assume it is most of them. I doubt the sincerity of any rightist who claims shutting down public assistance programs will be really good for the poor, or at least won't really hurt them. It's just too implausible a belief to think millions and millions of conservatives actually believe.


"A rising tide lifts all boats!"

That's the line you'll usually get.  As if some shake-n-bake maxim is the same as reality.

As for the rest, the GOP platform is increasingly stating in bald terms that public assistance and things like free lunches at school are the opposite of a good thing and the soulful thing would be to pull the plug on everything.
 
2014-03-07 03:25:55 PM  

fruitloop: Aasif's interviews are really damn good, it's sad that he will likely be the next to leave TDS.


He's good, so it would make the most sense. I skip mid-show most of the time but I'll often watch his bits.
There's just something about the interview thing TDS does that only works with a select few.
 
2014-03-07 03:28:03 PM  

duke3522: I crushed a disc in my back playing football when I was 16. I have lived almost my entire life without health insurance. I always worked for myself because suddenly not being able to walk for a week at a time limits employment options. I am now 52, and a couple of years ago my back got so bad I simply couldn't work anymore.

I was homeless for a time. Living out of my truck, and camping in national forests. To my good fortune my SSI claim went through in record time, 62 days from application to acceptance. Practically the speed of light when it comes to disability applications.

I now live a very humble life, living large on the $710 I get in SSI, and the $75 a month I get in SNAP. And I will tell you, I am so grateful for the assistance that allows me at least a little dignity in life.

However,to those of you who simply think I'm some sort of taker who is scamming the system. Fark you with a rusty baseball bat!!!

Not only will I continue to live my life just to piss people like this off, but I have gained the ultimate in what these people hate. I'm poor, and I have not only found a way to have a roof over my head and enough to eat, but I have also found something I thought I would never fund in this life. Contentment.


You want to really piss them off?  Carry a cell phone around with you every where you go.  It doesn't even have to work.
 
2014-03-07 03:29:13 PM  
And these are the sort of people who the experts say are going to keep the House, and have a good chance of taking the Senate?

We're farked aren't we?
 
2014-03-07 03:29:56 PM  
Baz744:
And who are they, demographically? Is there any way to identify them? What else do we know about them? Etc.

Pretty easy to answer, really.
The rich guys KNOW it's bullshiat because their actions are specifically aimed at the money and influence remaining (and even flowing) to the top. Why would they get into politics or hire lobbyists to empower their "enemy"?
The poor people believe it because they wouldn't vote that way if they didn't.
 
2014-03-07 03:31:15 PM  

Paul Baumer: What's horrifying to me is not that there are people this amoral in the world, but APPARENTLY THE POPULATION OF TENNESSEE IS OK WITH THE STATUS QUO, SINCE THEY KEEP RE-ELECTING THESE GUYS.

Christ on a cracker, it's almost hard to feel sorry for people this goddamned dumb.


I bet some of the people attending that health care event voted for those guys.
 
2014-03-07 03:34:13 PM  

Paul Baumer: What's horrifying to me is not that there are people this amoral in the world, but APPARENTLY THE POPULATION OF TENNESSEE IS OK WITH THE STATUS QUO, SINCE THEY KEEP RE-ELECTING THESE GUYS.

Christ on a cracker, it's almost hard to feel sorry for people this goddamned dumb.


Check out Tennessee on this map
 
2014-03-07 03:34:26 PM  
i47.photobucket.com
 
2014-03-07 03:37:34 PM  

incendi: Baz744: That gives him a lot of credibility. If he doesn't get 2016 as close as the last two, he could lose some of that.

On the other hand, his methods seem reliable so far.

The funny thing is that he doesn't even pretend to have some sort of secret sauce. He just harmonizes the basic statisticals and doesn't try to lie to himself and/or everybody else about what the numbers are actually saying.


Based on some of the more crazy talk after 2012, it sounds like some on the right think that the elections were cleverly manipulated to meet the polling.  When you're that far out of orbit, it's tough to recover.
 
2014-03-07 03:39:40 PM  

Old enough to know better: And these are the sort of people who the experts say are going to keep the House, and have a good chance of taking the Senate?

We're farked aren't we?


Just like in the last Presidential election, which really wasn't at all close, the press needs to spin a narrative to keep people interested or, at the very least, tuned in.

I'd keep an eye on this site:

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

Or Nate Silver's blog if he relaunches.

Keep in mind it's very early and there isn't any real polling data out there in Senate races yet.

People are pointing at Obama's 46 - 48% approval rating and saying that the Dems are doomed because of it, but they've been ignoring the fact that the GOP's numbers are far worse than that. They have a tremendous branding problem in all but the deepest red states and districts at the moment.
 
2014-03-07 03:41:25 PM  

Mad_Radhu: Gaseous Anomaly: Baz744: Opinion question for anyone interested in answering:

You won't generally see hardline conservatives admitting that the laissez-faire nation they envision will be very very bad for some people. That many people will be reduced to homelessness and hunger; that many kids will go without education; that many people will lose access even to rudimentary health care, etc.

Normally they paper all that over with bs like "if we just pass large enough tax cuts for the rich, poor people will be able to afford to send their own kids to private school!" They often claim that private charity will pick up all the slack in other deficient areas.

So what percentage of conservatives do you think actually believe their own bullsh*t? Surely some percentage of them have been hooked by the rhetoric. But some other percentage well know the predictable consequences of of shutting down public assistance programs. They just parrot the bullsh*t because they know voters don't want the society they envision.

And who are they, demographically? Is there any way to identify them? What else do we know about them? Etc.

I normally assume it is most of them. I doubt the sincerity of any rightist who claims shutting down public assistance programs will be really good for the poor, or at least won't really hurt them. It's just too implausible a belief to think millions and millions of conservatives actually believe.

I think a large fraction of them do really believe the BS. Remember when Karl friggin' Rove, the poster child for cynical manipulation, broke down on election night because Ohio didn't follow the "unskewed polls" model? Supposedly even Mitt Romney himself was surprised that the election wasn't close.

Once you get into a reality bubble, because beliefs needn't have any tether to reality, they can get pretty strange pretty quick.

Tomorrow's politicians come from today's base, and I think the right-wing reality bubble has been around long enough that new GOP politicians believe in it. Look at Republican State legislatures actually trying to ban abortion, instead of keeping it around as a wedge issue. If they succeed, they just defanged a big motivator for their people to keep turning out at election time, so they probably just actually want to ban abortion.

What is amazing about the election night breakdown was that I was playing along at home, watching the states fall into place one by one, exactly as Nate Silver predicted. It's not like accurate projections weren't available if you looked in the right places.


Yes, but if you recall, Nate Silver was thin and gay and lacked a booming voice.
 
2014-03-07 03:41:49 PM  

Baz744: There actually is an incentive for him not to, though. He's successfully predicted the electoral vote outcome of two elections now, one perfectly, and the other almost perfectly (Indiana unexpectedly went for Obama in 2008). That gives him a lot of credibility. If he doesn't get 2016 as close as the last two, he could lose some of that.

On the other hand, his methods seem reliable so far.


I suspect he likes doing it too much to just stop for the sake of a perfect record.

His predictions aren't just simple "Obama wins" anyway, it's "Obama has a 53% chance of winning". Even if Romney had won he'd just say "Yeah, well our model predicted a Romney win 47%, so there's that." Which wouldn't have been as bad-ass, but is still statistically sound.
 
2014-03-07 03:42:18 PM  
This is what you support when you vote for Republicans.


Not even once, folks.... Not even once.
 
2014-03-07 03:42:27 PM  

duke3522: I crushed a disc in my back playing football when I was 16. I have lived almost my entire life without health insurance. I always worked for myself because suddenly not being able to walk for a week at a time limits employment options. I am now 52, and a couple of years ago my back got so bad I simply couldn't work anymore.

I was homeless for a time. Living out of my truck, and camping in national forests. To my good fortune my SSI claim went through in record time, 62 days from application to acceptance. Practically the speed of light when it comes to disability applications.

I now live a very humble life, living large on the $710 I get in SSI, and the $75 a month I get in SNAP. And I will tell you, I am so grateful for the assistance that allows me at least a little dignity in life.

However,to those of you who simply think I'm some sort of taker who is scamming the system. Fark you with a rusty baseball bat!!!

Not only will I continue to live my life just to piss people like this off, but I have gained the ultimate in what these people hate. I'm poor, and I have not only found a way to have a roof over my head and enough to eat, but I have also found something I thought I would never fund in this life. Contentment.


LUCKY DUCKY!
 
2014-03-07 03:44:28 PM  

OtherLittleGuy: ZZ9 Plural Z Alpha: EyeballKid: And, I think the geographic region known as "the South" should always be referred to as "the third world." At least, until there are some signs of progress.


/resides in partially-third-world Kentucky

Most of Jefferson County is at least second world.

Communist?

/makes sense, in a way


I meant metaphorically, but that's probably about what a big part of the state thinks about us.
 
2014-03-07 03:52:24 PM  
Holy sh*t that was awesome.  Absolutely epic brainsplosion.
The ridiculous part is that this guy probably still believes the bullsh*t that tumbles out of his own pie hole despite having his mind blown.
 
2014-03-07 03:52:43 PM  

factoryconnection: DamnYankees: This guys solution to people who can't afford health care was "if you're poor, stop being poor". He wasnt' joking, that was his actual recommendation.

So, you decide what he is.

To be clear: he literally said what DY quoted, not a paraphrase, not an implied statement, but a quote.  O.O


Our governor said in public the reason he was turning down the medicaid expansion was 'let's be clear who we are talking about here, it's able bodied adults'.  He's now actually trying to backtrack a little and may even consider expanding it.
 
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