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(LA Times)   Russia's power play in Ukraine escalates after pulling the goalie   (latimes.com) divider line 102
    More: Scary, Ukraine, Russia, Ukraine escalates, Crimean, Western Leader, Viktor Yanukovych, Fogh Rasmussen, ethnic Russians  
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6902 clicks; posted to Main » on 03 Mar 2014 at 10:08 AM (25 weeks ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2014-03-03 09:26:32 AM
How is it a power play? Russia is so corrupt that a country it has ruled for 500 years no longer wants to be allied with them and their only option was to invade the country, but can't actually fire a single shot without causing a war that will end in regional war they can't win.
 
2014-03-03 09:30:37 AM
I did that last night.

...wait, what are we talking about?
 
2014-03-03 10:12:06 AM
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/mar/03/ukraine-navy-officers-de f ect-russian-crimea-berezovsky

Ukrainian navy officers have rejected pleas for them to defect to the self-declared Crimean government at an extraordinary meeting at their headquarters in Sevastopol.

On Sunday the recently appointed navy commander-in-chief, Rear Admiral Denis Berezovsky, appeared on television to announce he was defecting to the Russian-supported Crimean authorities. But despite his appeals to officers on Monday, they said they would remain loyal to their oaths to serve Ukraine. Berezovsky has been accused of state treason by the new authorities in Kiev.
 
2014-03-03 10:12:31 AM
This is sort of how WWII started.
 
2014-03-03 10:12:57 AM
So them demanding the surrender of another country's armed forces on their own sovereign territory.  Nothing at all aggressive, militaristic, or expansionist in that act at all.  Why is everyone so worked up about this?  Because Iraq or something?

If the world community let's Russia get away with this they will not stop at Crimea.
 
2014-03-03 10:14:12 AM
I think it's rather clear at this point that Russia has a Tatar control problem.  They should consider Colgate.
 
2014-03-03 10:14:12 AM

AngryDragon: So them demanding the surrender of another country's armed forces on their own sovereign territory.  Nothing at all aggressive, militaristic, or expansionist in that act at all.  Why is everyone so worked up about this?  Because Iraq or something?

If the world community let's Russia get away with this they will not stop at Crimea.


I wouldn't worry too much.  Despite the lack of action on the surface, lots and lots of bad things are happening to the Russian economy that they can't ignore.
 
2014-03-03 10:14:50 AM

xanadian: I did that last night.

...wait, what are we talking about?


i don't know either now, but please go on........
 
2014-03-03 10:15:40 AM
Well then, I hope Ukraine can figure out how to score on the empty net.
 
2014-03-03 10:19:46 AM
Ukraine prior to 1991 was apart of Russia for 300 years.  It contains Russia's only warm water port and all kinds of industrialization.  In short, it's a vital strategic interest.

Neocons are going to get their panties in a bunch about not jumping into yet another war over some highbrowed  rhetoric about freedom, but no one is going to stop Russia from protecting its interests.  This would be like California and Hawaii trying to break away from the United States.  It's just not going to happen.
 
2014-03-03 10:21:30 AM

Barry Lyndon's Annuity Cheque: This is sort of how WWII started.


There were sort of a lot of other factors at play for WW2. Like this is the first time since the 1940s that a country has made a powerplay over disputed territory.
 
2014-03-03 10:22:20 AM

Barry Lyndon's Annuity Cheque: This is sort of how WWII started.


Ignoring the interference of Russia, the US Civil War started with a region breaking away from the union while the legitimate government managed to maintain military presence in some fortifications. The war started when the breakaway government opened fire on one such fort in Charleston harbor.
 
2014-03-03 10:22:57 AM
uh oh
 
2014-03-03 10:23:50 AM

DarnoKonrad: Ukraine prior to 1991 was apart of Russia for 300 years.  It contains Russia's only warm water port and all kinds of industrialization.  In short, it's a vital strategic interest.

Neocons are going to get their panties in a bunch about not jumping into yet another war over some highbrowed  rhetoric about freedom, but no one is going to stop Russia from protecting its interests.  This would be like California and Hawaii trying to break away from the United States.  It's just not going to happen.


Yeah, sure, if California and Hawaii were independent nations, it'd totally be the same thing.
 
2014-03-03 10:24:24 AM
Guys, guys, what are you doing? Don't you hear? "You don't just, in the 21st century, behave in 19th century fashion by invading another country on a completely trumped-up pretext,"?

Comedy gold from John "I stand by my 'yes' on Iraq" Kerry.
 
2014-03-03 10:27:06 AM
When it comes down to it, the only thing Obama (or anybody else who was President when this happened; this isn't "a failure of his leadership" you cocks) could do that would matter would be to start a war with Russia.  Which, yeah, no thank you.

Additionally complicating matters is that the Crimera is both ligustically and ethnically majority Russian (IE, the majority of the people in that territory (probably) support this move by Russia).
 
2014-03-03 10:27:25 AM
In good news, BP lost $1 billion dollars overnight from loss of Rosneft stock prices (the Russian markets and currency have tanked this morning).

So there's some justice... though I doubt they'll even miss it once they raise gas prices in the US again.
 
2014-03-03 10:29:05 AM
So... are they going to go to a shootout?
 
2014-03-03 10:30:11 AM

Geotpf: When it comes down to it, the only thing Obama (or anybody else who was President when this happened; this isn't "a failure of his leadership" you cocks) could do that would matter would be to start a war with Russia.  Which, yeah, no thank you.

Additionally complicating matters is that the Crimera is both ligustically and ethnically majority Russian (IE, the majority of the people in that territory (probably) support this move by Russia).


Well, yeah, because most of those supporting the Russians are.....Russians.  Stalin transplanted a metric crapton into the region after transporting out most of the local Crimean Tartars.  One way to maintain control over a region is put your own loyal people in there while moving most of the locals to Siberia.

Oh, and after the USSR fell apart, these same Russians wanted to go home to Russia, but the Russian government said no, because having millions of your own citizens in other nations is useful when you want an excuse to invade.  You know, to 'protect' them.

And no, 'war' is not the only option as any economist will tell you.
 
2014-03-03 10:30:46 AM

Infernalist: DarnoKonrad: Ukraine prior to 1991 was apart of Russia for 300 years.  It contains Russia's only warm water port and all kinds of industrialization.  In short, it's a vital strategic interest.

Neocons are going to get their panties in a bunch about not jumping into yet another war over some highbrowed  rhetoric about freedom, but no one is going to stop Russia from protecting its interests.  This would be like California and Hawaii trying to break away from the United States.  It's just not going to happen.

Yeah, sure, if California and Hawaii were independent nations, it'd totally be the same thing.


To be fair, Hawaii WAS an independent nation. And there are a few native Hawaiians that are still a bit miffed about the process by which it became a territory and then a state.
 
2014-03-03 10:32:47 AM

Evil Twin Skippy: Infernalist: DarnoKonrad: Ukraine prior to 1991 was apart of Russia for 300 years.  It contains Russia's only warm water port and all kinds of industrialization.  In short, it's a vital strategic interest.

Neocons are going to get their panties in a bunch about not jumping into yet another war over some highbrowed  rhetoric about freedom, but no one is going to stop Russia from protecting its interests.  This would be like California and Hawaii trying to break away from the United States.  It's just not going to happen.

Yeah, sure, if California and Hawaii were independent nations, it'd totally be the same thing.

To be fair, Hawaii WAS an independent nation. And there are a few native Hawaiians that are still a bit miffed about the process by which it became a territory and then a state.


I'm sure there's a few.  Still, not at all the same thing.  A hundred years ago, this would have been frowned upon, but accepted.

Two hundred years ago, this would have simply been accepted as the natural order of things.

Today, it's a big deal.  This may or may not turn into a shooting war, but that's irrelevant as Russia has already lost.
 
2014-03-03 10:33:12 AM
In before Ukraine is Weak!
 
2014-03-03 10:35:21 AM

xanadian: I did that last night.

...wait, what are we talking about?


there's no such thing as a hot female hockey player!
/I look forward to be proven wrong ;)
 
2014-03-03 10:35:33 AM

wyltoknow: Barry Lyndon's Annuity Cheque: This is sort of how WWII started.

There were sort of a lot of other factors at play for WW2. Like this is the first time since the 1940s that a country has made a powerplay over disputed territory.


I just find it interesting that a leader who helped rebuild his country's economy after collapse, made political opponents disappear, and hosted an Olympics to show his country's return to the world stage is now invading a neighboring country without repercussion because "nobody wants a war." I don't have an easy solution, but this has the hallmarks of turning really bad really fast.
 
2014-03-03 10:36:23 AM

Barry Lyndon's Annuity Cheque: This is sort of how WWII started.


This is how a lot of wars (big and small) started. Knowing which ones are going to be done in a weekend, and which ones will lay waste to civilization is the problem.

Think of it this way, every fire (large and small) has a spark. It's the conditions around that fire that determine the magnitude of the blaze. Light a sheet of paper in a waste basket? Meh. If said waste basket is in an natural gas plant? Oh. While a massive leak is going unchecked? Oh shiat.
 
2014-03-03 10:38:37 AM

generallyso: Guys, guys, what are you doing? Don't you hear? "You don't just, in the 21st century, behave in 19th century fashion by invading another country on a completely trumped-up pretext,"?

Comedy gold from John "I stand by my 'yes' on Iraq" Kerry.


I saw his interview on the CBS morning show this weekend.  I was hoping that they (Bob Schieffer, I think it was) would have jumped all over that.  After that failed to happen my next immediate thought was that the Daily show or Colbert was going to absolutely catch that one.
 
2014-03-03 10:39:19 AM

Barry Lyndon's Annuity Cheque: This is sort of how WWII started.


When the Brits bombed Okinawa?
 
2014-03-03 10:41:12 AM
regardless of your views on iraq, afghanistan, and the like, the reality is that none of these were irredentist (or any other dentist) in nature.  we did not put the US flag over anywhere that we went nor did we make a 51st state.

just by this fact alone, what russia is doing is much much much worse.
 
2014-03-03 10:42:09 AM

Infernalist: And no, 'war' is not the only option as any economist will tell you.


Sure, we will try to economically isolate them, at least to a certain extent.  But then they could just cut off oil and gas supplies to Europe, so they have economic weapons here as well.  In any case, Putin doesn't actually care much about G8 meetings or whatever.
 
2014-03-03 10:44:09 AM

Evil Twin Skippy: Infernalist: DarnoKonrad: Ukraine prior to 1991 was apart of Russia for 300 years.  It contains Russia's only warm water port and all kinds of industrialization.  In short, it's a vital strategic interest.

Neocons are going to get their panties in a bunch about not jumping into yet another war over some highbrowed  rhetoric about freedom, but no one is going to stop Russia from protecting its interests.  This would be like California and Hawaii trying to break away from the United States.  It's just not going to happen.

Yeah, sure, if California and Hawaii were independent nations, it'd totally be the same thing.

To be fair, Hawaii WAS an independent nation. And there are a few native Hawaiians that are still a bit miffed about the process by which it became a territory and then a state.


Onion headline from 1941:
Dastardly Japs Attack Colonially Occupied U.S. Non-State

/can't find an image file
 
2014-03-03 10:44:15 AM

Infernalist: Evil Twin Skippy:
I'm sure there's a few.  Still, not at all the same thing.  A hundred years ago, this would have been frowned upon, but accepted.

Two hundred years ago, this would have simply been accepted as the natural order of things.

Today, it's a big deal.  This may or may not turn into a shooting war, but that's irrelevant as Russia has already lost.


I'm scratching my head trying to figure out what Russia sought to gain from this in the first place. And that's what has me worried. Is this an insane play from nation seeking relevance in the military sphere? Or is this the opening move of a giant international chess game?

Of course, if it's a chess game, then yes, Russia has already lost. Every nation in Western Europe spent the last 50 years working on the problem of "and if we get into a pissing contest with the USSR, how can we beat them." And all of that investment didn't evaporate at the end of the cold war.

Maybe Vladimir has some sort of game changer that he things is going to even up the odds. But they don't have the bodies for a massed assault. And while their strength in numbers is in armored columns, NATO has destroying armored columns down to a science. A really sick, it's almost embarrassing the body count we can generate with our toys, science.
 
2014-03-03 10:44:52 AM

Geotpf: Infernalist: And no, 'war' is not the only option as any economist will tell you.

Sure, we will try to economically isolate them, at least to a certain extent.  But then they could just cut off oil and gas supplies to Europe, so they have economic weapons here as well.  In any case, Putin doesn't actually care much about G8 meetings or whatever.


Their gas is useful, but not necessary.  Germany can and will kick their nuclear reactors back online within hours and they have a reserve of NG that they can use until the reactors are rolling again.  And if they do that, Russia loses its biggest source of revenue.

Their economic weapon is a nerf sword.  They have no economic leverage here and that's why their economy is falling in on itself after one day.
 
2014-03-03 10:46:13 AM

Infernalist: DarnoKonrad: Ukraine prior to 1991 was apart of Russia for 300 years.  It contains Russia's only warm water port and all kinds of industrialization.  In short, it's a vital strategic interest.

Neocons are going to get their panties in a bunch about not jumping into yet another war over some highbrowed  rhetoric about freedom, but no one is going to stop Russia from protecting its interests.  This would be like California and Hawaii trying to break away from the United States.  It's just not going to happen.

Yeah, sure, if California and Hawaii were independent nations, it'd totally be the same thing.



You thought Ukraine was independent?    Independent nations don't have puppet presidencies -- hell California has more political autonomy from Washington DC than Ukraine under

 Yanukovych.  You need to get real.
 
2014-03-03 10:52:01 AM
Infernalist:

Their economic weapon is a nerf sword.  They have no economic leverage here and that's why their economy is falling in on itself after one day.

The problem is that they already played that card. Back in '05-'06, Russia turned off the taps while they were having a tiff with the Ukraine about how the Ukraine was pronouncing "Uncle" when Russia was drastically overcharging them.

All of Western Europe was scrambling to meet their energy needs. They haven't forgotten, and they've had 8 years to prepare.
 
2014-03-03 10:52:07 AM

Evil Twin Skippy: Infernalist: Evil Twin Skippy:
I'm sure there's a few.  Still, not at all the same thing.  A hundred years ago, this would have been frowned upon, but accepted.

Two hundred years ago, this would have simply been accepted as the natural order of things.

Today, it's a big deal.  This may or may not turn into a shooting war, but that's irrelevant as Russia has already lost.

I'm scratching my head trying to figure out what Russia sought to gain from this in the first place. And that's what has me worried. Is this an insane play from nation seeking relevance in the military sphere? Or is this the opening move of a giant international chess game?

Of course, if it's a chess game, then yes, Russia has already lost. Every nation in Western Europe spent the last 50 years working on the problem of "and if we get into a pissing contest with the USSR, how can we beat them." And all of that investment didn't evaporate at the end of the cold war.

Maybe Vladimir has some sort of game changer that he things is going to even up the odds. But they don't have the bodies for a massed assault. And while their strength in numbers is in armored columns, NATO has destroying armored columns down to a science. A really sick, it's almost embarrassing the body count we can generate with our toys, science.


I honestly have no idea why Putin would do this.  There was no reason to believe that the new government in Ukraine would revoke their lease on that base of theirs in the Crimean region.  Perhaps it was paranoia that the new government would give him the finger and evict the Russians.

Of course, looking at how he carved out a piece of Georgia and called it South Ossentia that listens to Russian orders might give a clue as to why he's taken the Crimean region and ordered them to declare independence.

Either way, if it turns into a shooting war, Russia loses, if they don't start a shooting war, Russia loses.  This was a pretty farking bad idea for Putin.
 
2014-03-03 10:53:50 AM

Evil Twin Skippy: Infernalist:

Their economic weapon is a nerf sword.  They have no economic leverage here and that's why their economy is falling in on itself after one day.

The problem is that they already played that card. Back in '05-'06, Russia turned off the taps while they were having a tiff with the Ukraine about how the Ukraine was pronouncing "Uncle" when Russia was drastically overcharging them.

All of Western Europe was scrambling to meet their energy needs. They haven't forgotten, and they've had 8 years to prepare.


Exactly.  They're ready for it now, which is why you're not seeing vast reports about how Russia's got the upper hand like they did back in 2005.
 
2014-03-03 10:56:03 AM

Bomb Head Mohammed: regardless of your views on iraq, afghanistan, and the like, the reality is that none of these were irredentist (or any other dentist) in nature.  we did not put the US flag over anywhere that we went nor did we make a 51st state.

just by this fact alone, what russia is doing is much much much worse.


Perhaps. Perhaps not. By annexing the territory, Russia takes on the responsibility for its citizens. Which may not be popular, but it can be argued that it is better than invading in order to prop up a sympathetic government for one's financial and energy needs, then leaving everyone in a postwar crater while you go home and pretend you lost the war. Not that Iraqis or Afghans or Ukrainians would be too keen on either sort of imperialism, of course.
 
2014-03-03 10:56:36 AM
Russia wont stop with Ukraine and were going to have ti deal with this in a very bad way in twenty years or so. What happens now when China moves on Taiwan, or Japan or Russia moves on Alaska. After all theyll claim they are just protecting the interests of Russian speakers in The United States.
 
2014-03-03 10:56:59 AM
also, it looks like Russia's done playing around.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26424738#TWEET1060896

The Russian military has given Ukrainian forces in Crimea until 03:00 GMT to surrender or "face storm", Ukraine defence sources have said.
 
2014-03-03 10:57:50 AM

Infernalist: There was no reason to believe that the new government in Ukraine would revoke their lease on that base of theirs in the Crimean region.


One of their first acts was to abolish Russian as an official language.   Of all the shiat to deal with, they chose a symbolic nationalist act.   It's intentionally provocative.  Their first act was to poke Russia in the eye.

This just isn't stupid, it's naive.
 
2014-03-03 10:58:50 AM
I also get a kick out of how its ok that Russia does it "because Iraq."

When Russians seize Greece, or Poland, its ok because Iraq, right?
 
2014-03-03 10:59:18 AM
Shiverpool has a hockey team ?       This whole thing is getting confusing.

No more threads till this is over.
 
2014-03-03 10:59:39 AM

TheGregiss: Russia wont stop with Ukraine and were going to have ti deal with this in a very bad way in twenty years or so. What happens now when China moves on Taiwan, or Japan or Russia moves on Alaska. After all theyll claim they are just protecting the interests of Russian speakers in The United States.



Good neocon logic there.  Just like Vietnam was the lynch pin to stopping global communism eh?
 
2014-03-03 11:00:19 AM

DarnoKonrad: Infernalist: There was no reason to believe that the new government in Ukraine would revoke their lease on that base of theirs in the Crimean region.

One of their first acts was to abolish Russian as an official language.   Of all the shiat to deal with, they chose a symbolic nationalist act.   It's intentionally provocative.  Their first act was to poke Russia in the eye.

This just isn't stupid, it's naive.


Truth.  It bears reminding that a huge huge HUGE chunk of the revolutionaries over there that just got rid of the pro-Russian government are hard right-winger nationalist types.
 
2014-03-03 11:03:27 AM
What sucks is that no matter what Russia does it won't be anywhere as bad as what we did to Iraq. So we really have no moral leg to stand on
 
2014-03-03 11:04:28 AM

Infernalist: DarnoKonrad: Infernalist: There was no reason to believe that the new government in Ukraine would revoke their lease on that base of theirs in the Crimean region.

One of their first acts was to abolish Russian as an official language.   Of all the shiat to deal with, they chose a symbolic nationalist act.   It's intentionally provocative.  Their first act was to poke Russia in the eye.

This just isn't stupid, it's naive.

Truth.  It bears reminding that a huge huge HUGE chunk of the revolutionaries over there that just got rid of the pro-Russian government are hard right-winger nationalist types.



That's not truth, that's a simplistic narrative.  Sort of like the simplistic narratives about Syria, or Iran, or Libya, or Egypt. . . .or any other event that's way more complex than "masses yearning to breath free air" and other trite nonsense.
 
2014-03-03 11:04:40 AM

TDWCom29: What sucks is that no matter what Russia does it won't be anywhere as bad as what we did to Iraq. So we really have no moral leg to stand on


Pretend for a second as if the US isn't involved.  Because, in all reality, this is a European thing, not a US thing.
 
2014-03-03 11:05:52 AM

Infernalist: TDWCom29: What sucks is that no matter what Russia does it won't be anywhere as bad as what we did to Iraq. So we really have no moral leg to stand on

Pretend for a second as if the US isn't involved.  Because, in all reality, this is a European thing, not a US thing.


Oh I'm completely aware and want to stay out of it. I'm just saying is all
 
2014-03-03 11:08:38 AM

TDWCom29: Infernalist: TDWCom29: What sucks is that no matter what Russia does it won't be anywhere as bad as what we did to Iraq. So we really have no moral leg to stand on

Pretend for a second as if the US isn't involved.  Because, in all reality, this is a European thing, not a US thing.

Oh I'm completely aware and want to stay out of it. I'm just saying is all


yes, I know you don't want to get involved.  Isolationism is easy to understand, but that doesn't make it the right course to take.
 
2014-03-03 11:09:22 AM

DarnoKonrad: It contains Russia's only warm water port


Ah - another Farker without access to Google Maps or Wikipedia. Poor fella.
 
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