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(Pravda)   Ukraine declares general mobilization after Russia approves use of military force in Crimea   (english.pravda.ru) divider line 217
    More: News, Crimea, Ukraine, Russia, combat readiness, Federation Council, military, President of Russia  
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5724 clicks; posted to Main » on 02 Mar 2014 at 2:27 AM (43 weeks ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



217 Comments   (+0 »)
   
View Voting Results: Smartest and Funniest
 
2014-03-02 02:08:28 AM  
Shiat just got realer.
 
2014-03-02 02:29:35 AM  
(In best Ron Burgandy voice) Well, that escalated quickly.
 
2014-03-02 02:30:12 AM  
Oh, wait.  Pravda.
 
2014-03-02 02:30:58 AM  
Okay, all you generals. Mobilize.
 
2014-03-02 02:31:35 AM  
Maybe Ted Nugent can sign up for the draft without shiatting his pants now.
 
2014-03-02 02:32:14 AM  
Crimea river. I can't believe I thought of something so clever!
 
2014-03-02 02:32:58 AM  
img.fark.net
 
ecl
2014-03-02 02:33:27 AM  

8 inches: Crimea river. I can't believe I thought of something so clever!


SLAP!
 
2014-03-02 02:33:34 AM  
cdn.splitsider.com
 
2014-03-02 02:34:59 AM  
If Germany was still in charge this wouldn't be happening.
 
2014-03-02 02:35:37 AM  
Half a league, half a league,
Half a league onward,
All in the valley of Death,
Rode the six hundred.
'Forward, the Light Brigade!
Charge for the guns' he said:
Into the valley of Death
Rode the six hundred.

'Forward, the Light Brigade!'
Was there a man dismay'd?
Not tho' the soldiers knew
Some one had blunder'd:
Theirs not to make reply,
Theirs not to reason why,
Theirs but to do and die:
Into the valley of Death
Rode the six hundred.

Cannon to right of them,
Cannon to left of them,
Cannon in front of them
Volley'd and thunder'd;
Storm'd at with shot and shell,
Boldly they rode and well,
Into the jaws of Death,
Into the mouth of Hell
Rode the six hundred.

Flash'd all their sabres bare,
Flash'd as they turned in air
Sabring the gunners there,
Charging an army while
All the world wonder'd:
Plunged in the battery-smoke
Right thro' the line they broke;
Cossack and Russian
Reel'd from the sabre-stroke
Shatter'd and sunder'd.
Then they rode back, but not
Not the six hundred.

Cannon to right of them,
Cannon to left of them,
Cannon behind them
Volley'd and thunder'd;
Storm'd at with shot and shell,
While horse and hero fell,
They that had fought so well
Came thro' the jaws of Death,
Back from the mouth of Hell,
All that was left of them,
Left of six hundred.

When can their glory fade?
O the wild charge they made!
All the world wonder'd.
Honour the charge they made!
Honour the Light Brigade,
Noble six hundred!
 
2014-03-02 02:36:33 AM  
do we have any idea yet if nato is going to honor the 1994 agreement to defend Ukraine????
 
2014-03-02 02:38:26 AM  

8 inches: Crimea river. I can't believe I thought of something so clever!


I don't get it
 
2014-03-02 02:39:07 AM  
Here's a 'real' news link, and yes, things are looking kinda scary right now.
 
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26400035

*slaps subby for linking to Pravda*
 
2014-03-02 02:40:39 AM  
How many IPC points do you get for invading the Ukraine?
 
2014-03-02 02:41:11 AM  
If you like your warm water port in Crimea, you can keep your warm water port in Crimea.
 
2014-03-02 02:41:34 AM  

humanshrapnel: [img.fark.net image 400x400]


Umm, well, it wasn't Jack Ryan who said it. It was admiral whats-his-name, played by Fred Thompson.
 
2014-03-02 02:41:49 AM  
Crimea river
Charge of the Light Brigade
We'll be lucky if we get out alive
Land war in Asia
 
2014-03-02 02:42:01 AM  
Heim ins Reich.
 
2014-03-02 02:42:19 AM  

ImpendingCynic: humanshrapnel: [img.fark.net image 400x400]

Umm, well, it wasn't Jack Ryan who said it. It was admiral whats-his-name, played by Fred Thompson.


I loved him in The Wonder Years.
 
2014-03-02 02:42:34 AM  

humanshrapnel:


Idiot. Rand Paul's the one who said that.

Also, we might just possibly be farked. farkety fark farked if we uphold the whole treaty business and actually do something about those consequences.
 
2014-03-02 02:42:38 AM  
We need to defend our agreement with them, or we will never have a country be willing to give up their nuclear arsenal for empty promises.  I hate saying that because I dont want to have my country involved in war, but if we dont keep our word, we're never going to be able to negotiate in good faith again.
 
2014-03-02 02:42:42 AM  

the_cnidarian: Crimea river
Charge of the Light Brigade
We'll be lucky if we get out alive
Land war in Asia


Ukraine is joke to you
 
2014-03-02 02:43:31 AM  
The Ukraine "says" that it gave Russia all of its nuclear weapons back to them by 1996.

"says"

I suspect they kept a few.
 
2014-03-02 02:43:35 AM  

ImpendingCynic: humanshrapnel: [img.fark.net image 400x400]

Umm, well, it wasn't Jack Ryan who said it. It was admiral whats-his-name, played by Fred Thompson.


I think you missed the joke, because the picture is of the Russian sub commander!
 
2014-03-02 02:44:25 AM  
Yeah, real smart there, Ukraine. Instead of giving up Crimea (Mostly Russian anyway, and home to the Russian Black Sea fleet so there was no way in Hell they were going to jeopardize that), you're gonna wave your dick at Putin.

God, I hope the rest of the world isn't dumb enough to get involved.
 
2014-03-02 02:45:39 AM  

cc_rider: Here's a 'real' news link, and yes, things are looking kinda scary right now.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26400035

*slaps subby for linking to Pravda*

Mr Putin's request was for deployment in Ukraine as a whole, and not specifically for flashpoints such as Crimea.


Well, you coulda knocked me over with a feather.
 
2014-03-02 02:46:36 AM  

mraudacia: do we have any idea yet if nato is going to honor the 1994 agreement to defend Ukraine????


We'll know when the North Atlantic Council convenes.
 
2014-03-02 02:46:47 AM  

JonBuck: Oh, wait.  Pravda.


There is no truth in Pravda.
 
2014-03-02 02:46:50 AM  
i47.tinypic.com
 
2014-03-02 02:47:50 AM  

Greywar: We need to defend our agreement with them, or we will never have a country be willing to give up their nuclear arsenal for empty promises.  I hate saying that because I dont want to have my country involved in war, but if we dont keep our word, we're never going to be able to negotiate in good faith again.


I don'te give a shiat if no one ever gives up their nucelar aresenal.
actualy isn't it actually preferable they had a nuclear arsenal so we and they would not be in this postiion where the only wise thing to do is to tell them they are on their own?
 
2014-03-02 02:48:01 AM  

RanDomino: the_cnidarian: Crimea river
Charge of the Light Brigade
We'll be lucky if we get out alive
Land war in Asia

Ukraine is joke to you


The Ukraine is weak!
 
2014-03-02 02:48:18 AM  

LordJiro: Yeah, real smart there, Ukraine. Instead of giving up Crimea (Mostly Russian anyway, and home to the Russian Black Sea fleet so there was no way in Hell they were going to jeopardize that), you're gonna wave your dick at Putin.

God, I hope the rest of the world isn't dumb enough to get involved.


i.imgur.com
 
2014-03-02 02:48:57 AM  

Wolf892: So, in laymen speak, how close are we to WW III?


somewhere between "gonna start on Wednesday" and "Probably nothing to worry about"
 
2014-03-02 02:49:03 AM  
I miss the days when our President had balls.

img.fark.net
 
2014-03-02 02:49:04 AM  

LordJiro: Yeah, real smart there, Ukraine. Instead of giving up Crimea (Mostly Russian anyway, and home to the Russian Black Sea fleet so there was no way in Hell they were going to jeopardize that), you're gonna wave your dick at Putin.

God, I hope the rest of the world isn't dumb enough to get involved.


And yet if they don't, Russia gets the green light to do whatever the fark they want.
 
2014-03-02 02:49:53 AM  
Dear Kiev,

Sevastopol is Russian.  It should be part of Russia.

demotivators.despair.com
 
2014-03-02 02:50:01 AM  

the_cnidarian: RanDomino: the_cnidarian: Crimea river
Charge of the Light Brigade
We'll be lucky if we get out alive
Land war in Asia

Ukraine is joke game to you

The Ukraine is weak!


FTFM

Is that all of them? Can we just post this list at the top of every farking Ukraine thread and be done with it?
 
2014-03-02 02:50:18 AM  

Vantango84: Wolf892: So, in laymen speak, how close are we to WW III?

somewhere between "gonna start on Wednesday" and "Probably nothing to worry about"


www.csmonitor.com
Let me guess... Tuesday?
 
2014-03-02 02:50:22 AM  
I bet this will erupt into civil war:

www.washingtonpost.com
 
2014-03-02 02:50:36 AM  

Wolf892: So, in laymen speak, how close are we to WW III?


WW3 is going to start with preemptive cyberattacks, not nukes. So if your power, internet and cell service all go out simultaneously with no adverse weather conditions and don't come back up, that could be it.
 
2014-03-02 02:51:36 AM  

ladyfortuna: LordJiro: Yeah, real smart there, Ukraine. Instead of giving up Crimea (Mostly Russian anyway, and home to the Russian Black Sea fleet so there was no way in Hell they were going to jeopardize that), you're gonna wave your dick at Putin.

God, I hope the rest of the world isn't dumb enough to get involved.

And yet if they don't, Russia gets the green light to do whatever the fark they want.


Like secure their major military bases during massive, violent riots? Because that's all that was happening until now.
 
2014-03-02 02:53:18 AM  
jaypgreene.files.wordpress.com

"Patience, Highlander. You have done well. But it will take time. There are generations being born and dying. You're at one with all living things. Each man's thoughts and dreams are yours to know. You have power beyond imagination. Use it well my friend. Don't lose your head."

/Best. Bond Movie. EVER
 
2014-03-02 02:53:18 AM  

ladyfortuna: And yet if they don't, Russia gets the green light to do whatever the fark they want.


To some extent, we don't have the right to tell them they can't.  Even in the best circumstances our military isn't in any place to do anything about it (short of nukes), unless there is also a commitment from Germany and Poland at a minimum.  We've overextended our commitments, and at some point it's gonna bite us.
 
2014-03-02 02:53:33 AM  
So, how close are we, on a scale of 1-10, to a shooting match?

And by we I of course mean Ukraine and Russia.
 
2014-03-02 02:53:39 AM  

HotWingAgenda: Wolf892: So, in laymen speak, how close are we to WW III?

WW3 is going to start with preemptive cyberattacks, not nukes. So if your power, internet and cell service all go out simultaneously with no adverse weather conditions and don't come back up, that could be it.


I'm going to stop paying my electric, cell, and ISP bill and help get WWIII started.
 
2014-03-02 02:54:33 AM  

bigpeeler: I miss the days when our President had balls.



What would you have Obama do, in this case, specifically?
 
2014-03-02 02:54:36 AM  

TheWhoppah: Dear Kiev,

Sevastopol is Russian.  It should be part of Russia.

[demotivators.despair.com image 617x435]


Danzig is German.  It should be a part of Germany.
 
2014-03-02 02:55:09 AM  

bigpeeler: I miss the days when our President had balls.

[img.fark.net image 605x412]


3.5/10
 
2014-03-02 02:55:21 AM  
With armies now being put in the field of battle, it can easily turn to shooting.

If Ukrainian forces defeat even a small contingent of Russian forces and video proof hits the airwaves, Putin may feel compelled to widen the scope of his invasion.  He's not the type to lose face easily.

Right now, there are probably CIA specialists liaising with Ukrainian forces on their weaponry and supply needs.  Unlike Syria's rebels, the mainline Ukrainian army would probably be trusted with western technology, including the latest anti-aircraft.

No one can stop Putin from taking eastern Ukraine.  Western Ukraine is now mobilizing a few hundred thousand men.  If Putin moves west, he's in for one hell of a fight.
 
2014-03-02 02:56:01 AM  

RanDomino: the_cnidarian: RanDomino: the_cnidarian: Crimea river
Charge of the Light Brigade
We'll be lucky if we get out alive
Land war in Asia

Ukraine is joke game to you

The Ukraine is weak!

FTFM

Is that all of them? Can we just post this list at the top of every farking Ukraine thread and be done with it?


Heh, that would be nice. Maybe the recurring headline?
 
2014-03-02 02:56:10 AM  

LordJiro: ladyfortuna: LordJiro: Yeah, real smart there, Ukraine. Instead of giving up Crimea (Mostly Russian anyway, and home to the Russian Black Sea fleet so there was no way in Hell they were going to jeopardize that), you're gonna wave your dick at Putin.

God, I hope the rest of the world isn't dumb enough to get involved.

And yet if they don't, Russia gets the green light to do whatever the fark they want.

Like secure their major military bases during massive, violent riots? Because that's all that was happening until now.


Um, no. I'm pretty sure Pootie has been planning to bring Ukraine back under his wing for a long time. He just needed a stooge like Yanukovych to deliver it. Things didn't go exactly according to plan, though.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/shortcuts/2014/feb/18/brief-primer- vl adimir-putin-eurasian-union-trade
 
2014-03-02 02:56:59 AM  

super_grass: I bet this will erupt into civil war:

[www.washingtonpost.com image 850x593]


2010 election results.

img.fark.net

With props to 100 Watt Walrus for posting this in another thread.

So divide the country with a wall. Maybe draw some kind of metallic drape.
 
2014-03-02 02:57:35 AM  

juvandy: ladyfortuna: And yet if they don't, Russia gets the green light to do whatever the fark they want.

To some extent, we don't have the right to tell them they can't.  Even in the best circumstances our military isn't in any place to do anything about it (short of nukes), unless there is also a commitment from Germany and Poland at a minimum.  We've overextended our commitments, and at some point it's gonna bite us.


You'll note the words 'United States' never appeared in my post. I was speaking hypothetically... if 'the world' lets Russia steam roll through with no protest or a mere 'on paper' condemnation... what message does that send? Putin has already shown his teeth on the international stage.
 
2014-03-02 02:57:44 AM  

LordJiro: Yeah, real smart there, Ukraine. Instead of giving up Crimea (Mostly Russian anyway, and home to the Russian Black Sea fleet so there was no way in Hell they were going to jeopardize that), you're gonna wave your dick at Putin.

God, I hope the rest of the world isn't dumb enough to get involved.


You are assuming if Ukraine does nothing that Russia is content to only occupy Crimea.  There are many eastern provinces in Ukraine with Russian populations, economic ties to Russia, and that could be incorporated into the Russian sphere of influence. Ukraine sitting back and doing nothing could result in Ukraine losing much of it's territory with no recourse.

Mobilization and deployment of soldiers does not mean a shooting war. It is preparations for one and gives Ukraine options and some tools to use in order to stem the loss of territory. It does increase the likelihood of war, but it may also blunt further Russian territorial aspirations if there is a risk of real opposition.  It also could lead to a miscalculation by either side resulting in a situation that wasn't intended and cannot be controlled.

It is a dangerous development, but not one that is unexpected.  After all, if someone invaded the US and took Florida, we would first thank them, but also the US would take steps to protect the rest of the states so as not to lose them rather than simply relying on the words of the party who just seized territory.
 
2014-03-02 02:58:12 AM  

NEDM: TheWhoppah: Dear Kiev,

Sevastopol is Russian.  It should be part of Russia.

[demotivators.despair.com image 617x435]

Danzig is German.  It should be a part of Germany.


www.metalsucks.net
 
2014-03-02 02:58:45 AM  

TheWhoppah: Dear Kiev,

Sevastopol is Russian.  It should be part of Russia.

[demotivators.despair.com image 617x435]


Alsace-Lorraine is German. It should be part of Russia.
 
2014-03-02 02:59:03 AM  

Twist2005: humanshrapnel:

Idiot. Rand Paul's the one who said that.

Also, we might just possibly be farked. farkety fark farked if we uphold the whole treaty business and actually do something about those consequences.


I remember that last time everyone upheld all their treaties involving eastern Europe. Was all "Mustard gas! Zeppelins!"
 
2014-03-02 03:00:39 AM  

bigpeeler: I miss the days when our President had balls.


Wait until Hillary is elected, then once again you'll have a president with balls.
 
2014-03-02 03:00:54 AM  
joonyer:

3.5/10

Is that everyones kneejerk reaction to anything said against their milquetoast god, Obama? Let's see how he reacts to the forthcoming world events, then get back to me. It's time for him to pull up his big-boy pants and get to work. This situation is serious.
 
2014-03-02 03:01:16 AM  
Well, Russia either found a way to split the country, or just found a way to unite it.  As for Crimea, it has an ethnic Russian majority but lots of Tatars and Ukrainians nonetheless. This will end badly no matter how it ends - either you have an exodus of Tatars and Ukrainians or and exodus of Russians.

I wonder what NATO plans on doing. This could turn into a stare-down followed by a new treaty with Ukraine retaining Crimea, or Russia could take Crimea with NATO sending a strongly worded letter but doing nothing, or any number of worse outcomes.
 
2014-03-02 03:01:35 AM  
Those tytushki stooges in eastern  Ukraine are gonna be pissed when they discover Putin only wants the Crimea and not the rest of basket-case Ukraine.
 
2014-03-02 03:02:15 AM  

Testiclaw: So, how close are we, on a scale of 1-10, to a shooting match?

And by we I of course mean Ukraine and Russia.


9.
 
2014-03-02 03:02:56 AM  

ladyfortuna: You'll note the words 'United States' never appeared in my post. I was speaking hypothetically... if 'the world' lets Russia steam roll through with no protest or a mere 'on paper' condemnation... what message does that send? Putin has already shown his teeth on the international stage.


There's been plenty of protest and condemnation.  Short of military action I'm sure there will be economic restrictions as well.
 
2014-03-02 03:03:28 AM  

Wolf892: So, in laymen speak, how close are we to WW III?


Well, historically the US is not too hot on helping oppressed people or fighting Russians and has no significant geographical or economic stake. But, also historically, the US is not too good at minding its own business. Could go either way for everyone, though in Europe the reasons would be more thoroughly thought out.
 
2014-03-02 03:03:50 AM  

Wolf892: So, in laymen speak, how close are we to WW III?


This farking close
 
2014-03-02 03:06:58 AM  

bigpeeler: Is that everyones kneejerk reaction to anything said against their milquetoast god, Obama? Let's see how he reacts to the forthcoming world events, then get back to me. It's time for him to pull up his big-boy pants and get to work. This situation is serious.


Testiclaw: What would you have Obama do, in this case, specifically?


0.tqn.com
 
2014-03-02 03:08:00 AM  

NEDM: TheWhoppah: Dear Kiev,

Sevastopol is Russian.  It should be part of Russia.

[demotivators.despair.com image 617x435]

Danzig is German.  It should be a part of Germany.


misfitsrecords.com
 
2014-03-02 03:08:28 AM  
Seriously? A thread about war in the Crimea and nobody's upping the Irons?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dTaD9cd8hvw
 
2014-03-02 03:08:46 AM  

Rhino_man: Testiclaw: So, how close are we, on a scale of 1-10, to a shooting match?

And by we I of course mean Ukraine and Russia.

9.


Well...shiat.
 
2014-03-02 03:10:31 AM  

Testiclaw: bigpeeler: Is that everyones kneejerk reaction to anything said against their milquetoast god, Obama? Let's see how he reacts to the forthcoming world events, then get back to me. It's time for him to pull up his big-boy pants and get to work. This situation is serious.

Testiclaw: What would you have Obama do, in this case, specifically?

[0.tqn.com image 270x301]


His posts have made it obvious that what he wants is for Obama to have big balls and to pull up his pants so high that his balls will be visible. Then with his huge cameltoe on display, Ukraine and Russia will have no choice but to get along. This is pretty basic stuff.
 
2014-03-02 03:10:38 AM  

bigpeeler: joonyer:

3.5/10

Is that everyones kneejerk reaction to anything said against their milquetoast god, Obama? Let's see how he reacts to the forthcoming world events, then get back to me. It's time for him to pull up his big-boy pants and get to work. This situation is serious.


So, what would a president with balls do?

We're all waiting to hear.
 
2014-03-02 03:11:31 AM  

you are a puppet: Testiclaw: bigpeeler: Is that everyones kneejerk reaction to anything said against their milquetoast god, Obama? Let's see how he reacts to the forthcoming world events, then get back to me. It's time for him to pull up his big-boy pants and get to work. This situation is serious.

Testiclaw: What would you have Obama do, in this case, specifically?

[0.tqn.com image 270x301]

His posts have made it obvious that what he wants is for Obama to have big balls and to pull up his pants so high that his balls will be visible. Then with his huge cameltoe on display, Ukraine and Russia will have no choice but to get along. This is pretty basic stuff.


Farkied as "ball puppet"
 
2014-03-02 03:11:32 AM  

bigpeeler: joonyer:

3.5/10

Is that everyones kneejerk reaction to anything said against their milquetoast god, Obama? Let's see how he reacts to the forthcoming world events, then get back to me. It's time for him to pull up his big-boy pants and get to work. This situation is serious.


You think POTUS is a god. Nobody else does. He is part of a nonprofit corporation ruled by us. That includes you. Grab your bootstraps and quit blaming the president for imaginary future infractions.
 
2014-03-02 03:11:51 AM  

bigpeeler: I miss the days when our President had balls.

[img.fark.net image 605x412]


i miss the days when you got banned from sa
 
2014-03-02 03:11:58 AM  
We should probably keep an eye on the Doomsday Clock, juuuuust in case it starts inching towards midnight again. Right now, we're still 5 minutes to midnight, but it's been that way since 2012.
 
2014-03-02 03:13:52 AM  

Lokasenna: Seriously? A thread about war in the Crimea and nobody's upping the Irons?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dTaD9cd8hvw


Here's one that isn't in 240p so it doesn't sound like shiat:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2G5rfPISIwo

But seriously, can't they find a way to just divide up Ukraine until Russia finishes falling apart around Putin?
 
2014-03-02 03:14:04 AM  

Asa Phelps: bigpeeler: joonyer:

3.5/10

Is that everyones kneejerk reaction to anything said against their milquetoast god, Obama? Let's see how he reacts to the forthcoming world events, then get back to me. It's time for him to pull up his big-boy pants and get to work. This situation is serious.

So, what would a president with balls do?

We're all waiting to hear.


You might want to sit down for this ...
img1.wfrcdn.com
 
2014-03-02 03:14:08 AM  

demaL-demaL-yeH: JonBuck: Oh, wait.  Pravda.

There is no truth in Pravda.


Pravda - well, Pravda - Pravda said: "жил был король когда-то при нем блоха жила  " It stinks.

/obscure?
 
2014-03-02 03:15:36 AM  
#sovietspring
 
2014-03-02 03:15:57 AM  
a person on reddit gave a very sober reading of what's going on. The link to the full thing is here but here's the break down if you don't get the whole thing:

Russia controlled Ukraine for several generations as part of the USSR. After the USSR broke up, Ukraine had several governments, but mostly pro-Russian, until the recent turmoil there, which looks like it will place a less friendly-to-Moscow government in place.  Now, during the more happy days (from Moscow's POV) they had an agreement to have Russia have a military base where they have access to the Baltic Sea. This is in a place called Crimea, a small spigot of land on the aforementioned sea. This place is highly Russian in its ethnic makeup, and had a referendum coming up to determine if they'd break free, stay with Ukraine, or join Russia. Now that the newgovernment has shown up, Russia's afraid that they're going to go press on people or interfere with the refrendum leading to them losing access to their Baltic fleet.

Russia has played its cards very carefully and done nothing illegal. As of right now they've let the Crimeans run the show, and they're just reinforcing the garrisons there.  Basically, right now, Russia wants to wait it out and see what happens, while making a show of strength. "Don't get involved down there, we have the ability to stop you"

Neither side has done anything that would lead to war, and I personally don't think real war is likely. Everyone wants to avoid that.

as the commentator on reddit points out, there's 3 good end games for Russia. One, they use influence to keep the access and Crimea stays with Ukraine. Two, they use political advantage to assure the new Ukrainian government has some Crimean (thus Russian) influence, thus assuring their access and influence. Three, the referendum goes their way, and they get the whole kitten caboodle - probably Crimea joins Russia as either a satellite or just joins the Russian federation. Any of these ways, it makes Putin look strong, and helps making the Russian people feel good about themselves after botching the Olympics.

In reality this is NOT about us, and we really should not get involved unless we are specifically requested to do so. This is 50+ years of tension built up and honestly, The best outcome for Russia - one of the three listed above - matters to us not a lick. If Russia keeps its Baltic access... great. it's another place for Russia to sink money on its floating tubs of uselessness.

Oh, and just so no Right-Wingers get all crow here - the US and the President did exactly what it should do. It warned against illegal acts and is monitoring the situation. This isn't war, and it isn't likely to be unless one side does  something incredibly boneheaded. Russia's followed the book on this one. They've been careful. No cartoonish super villainy. They're not invading some poor place to keep a port, they're just defending what they have a treatied right to.

Let's just hope it stays that way.
 
2014-03-02 03:16:32 AM  
 
2014-03-02 03:16:44 AM  

HotWingAgenda: We should probably keep an eye on the Doomsday Clock, juuuuust in case it starts inching towards midnight again. Right now, we're still 5 minutes to midnight, but it's been that way since 2012.


I would only agree that a symbolic clock is as nourishing to the intellect as a photograph of oxygen to a drowning man.
 
2014-03-02 03:20:12 AM  
The Russians are coming.

images.scribblelive.com
 
2014-03-02 03:20:14 AM  

Asa Phelps: bigpeeler: joonyer:

3.5/10

Is that everyones kneejerk reaction to anything said against their milquetoast god, Obama? Let's see how he reacts to the forthcoming world events, then get back to me. It's time for him to pull up his big-boy pants and get to work. This situation is serious.

So, what would a president with balls do?

We're all waiting to hear.


In a previous thread somebody questioned a troll about what "standing up" to Putin meant.  The answer offered was, basically, "standing up" but written in different words.  It circled like that for a while.

I'm guessing this dude is going to do the same thing, if he does anything at all.  He'll probably 1) make the same empty statements about "getting tough", or "manning up", or, 2) selectively respond to more recent posts and drop the same old "Obama needs to step it up" lines to new and unsuspecting victims.

Obama just called me, and told me his red line is two posts.  The dude gets two posts to engage in conversation until he gets the plonk.

/pulls pants up so high my balls hang out
 
2014-03-02 03:20:49 AM  

hinten: The Russians are coming.

[images.scribblelive.com image 306x306]


I suppose shooting pictures is a type of shooting?
 
2014-03-02 03:21:12 AM  

Wolf892: So, in laymen speak, how close are we to WW III?


23:59:59.9
 
2014-03-02 03:23:05 AM  

saintstryfe: a person on reddit gave a very sober reading of what's going on. The link to the full thing is here but here's the break down if you don't get the whole thing:

Russia controlled Ukraine for several generations as part of the USSR. After the USSR broke up, Ukraine had several governments, but mostly pro-Russian, until the recent turmoil there, which looks like it will place a less friendly-to-Moscow government in place.  Now, during the more happy days (from Moscow's POV) they had an agreement to have Russia have a military base where they have access to the Baltic Sea. This is in a place called Crimea, a small spigot of land on the aforementioned sea. This place is highly Russian in its ethnic makeup, and had a referendum coming up to determine if they'd break free, stay with Ukraine, or join Russia. Now that the newgovernment has shown up, Russia's afraid that they're going to go press on people or interfere with the refrendum leading to them losing access to their Baltic fleet.

Russia has played its cards very carefully and done nothing illegal. As of right now they've let the Crimeans run the show, and they're just reinforcing the garrisons there.  Basically, right now, Russia wants to wait it out and see what happens, while making a show of strength. "Don't get involved down there, we have the ability to stop you"

Neither side has done anything that would lead to war, and I personally don't think real war is likely. Everyone wants to avoid that.

as the commentator on reddit points out, there's 3 good end games for Russia. One, they use influence to keep the access and Crimea stays with Ukraine. Two, they use political advantage to assure the new Ukrainian government has some Crimean (thus Russian) influence, thus assuring their access and influence. Three, the referendum goes their way, and they get the whole kitten caboodle - probably Crimea joins Russia as either a satellite or just joins the Russian federation. Any of these ways, it makes Putin look stron ...


The main legal issue, as I understand it, is many nations signed a treaty for the removal of Ukranian nukes.  Specifically, some western nations, US included, have to guarantee Ukranian sovereignty.  Additionally, Russia is not permitted to try to influence the state in a political fashion.  Russia has violated both of these specific items in the agreement.  Technically, we're treaty-bound to start kicking Russian arse if they in fact do go full invasion.  And they very well might.

I'm a bit fuzzy on the details, because this has all gone down while I've mostly been officing, so if I'm off anywheres, feel free to correct.
 
2014-03-02 03:23:21 AM  

Smeggy Smurf: Wolf892: So, in laymen speak, how close are we to WW III?

23:59:59.9


Metric or Standard?
 
2014-03-02 03:23:50 AM  

worlddan: bigpeeler: I miss the days when our President had balls.

Wait until Hillary is elected, then once again you'll have a president with balls.


She's apt to be dead before then.  shiatty health is a biatch
 
2014-03-02 03:24:27 AM  
The devil submits Pravda links.
 
2014-03-02 03:25:04 AM  

Testiclaw: Smeggy Smurf: Wolf892: So, in laymen speak, how close are we to WW III?

23:59:59.9

Metric or Standard?


First one, then the other
 
2014-03-02 03:25:49 AM  

Cpl.D: Russia has violated both of these specific items in the agreement.  Technically, we're treaty-bound to start kicking Russian arse if they in fact do go full invasion.


It must be an absolute shiatstorm to be in a position where you have to figure out which laws and treaties apply, in terms of responsibilities, find out which actions you're allowed to take in accordance to, and against, said responsibilities, and then weigh those options against practicalities, cost, destruction, and fallout, in terms of bodies, coffers and standing in the world.

I'm glad I don't have to do that.
 
2014-03-02 03:26:31 AM  

Weatherkiss: Testiclaw: Smeggy Smurf: Wolf892: So, in laymen speak, how close are we to WW III?

23:59:59.9

Metric or Standard?

First one, then the other


Instructions weren't clear: penis stuck in toaster oven.
 
2014-03-02 03:27:53 AM  
img.fark.net
"not this shiat again."
 
2014-03-02 03:28:30 AM  

Romans 7 19: demaL-demaL-yeH: JonBuck: Oh, wait.  Pravda.

There is no truth in Pravda.

Pravda - well, Pravda - Pravda said: "жил был король когда-то при нем блоха жила  " It stinks.

/obscure?


В тридевятом царстве, в тридесятом государстве ...
/Nothing on Fark is ever.
 
2014-03-02 03:29:16 AM  

Testiclaw: Asa Phelps: bigpeeler: joonyer:

3.5/10

Is that everyones kneejerk reaction to anything said against their milquetoast god, Obama? Let's see how he reacts to the forthcoming world events, then get back to me. It's time for him to pull up his big-boy pants and get to work. This situation is serious.

So, what would a president with balls do?

We're all waiting to hear.

In a previous thread somebody questioned a troll about what "standing up" to Putin meant.  The answer offered was, basically, "standing up" but written in different words.  It circled like that for a while.

I'm guessing this dude is going to do the same thing, if he does anything at all.  He'll probably 1) make the same empty statements about "getting tough", or "manning up", or, 2) selectively respond to more recent posts and drop the same old "Obama needs to step it up" lines to new and unsuspecting victims.

Obama just called me, and told me his red line is two posts.  The dude gets two posts to engage in conversation until he gets the plonk.

/pulls pants up so high my balls hang out


Oh ok, so this is like talking about sports without knowing what the hell is going on.

Did you see that disgraceful display the other night? What has happened to sportsmanship!?
 
2014-03-02 03:29:44 AM  

Cpl.D: saintstryfe: a person on reddit gave a very sober reading of what's going on. The link to the full thing is here but here's the break down if you don't get the whole thing:

Russia controlled Ukraine for several generations as part of the USSR. After the USSR broke up, Ukraine had several governments, but mostly pro-Russian, until the recent turmoil there, which looks like it will place a less friendly-to-Moscow government in place.  Now, during the more happy days (from Moscow's POV) they had an agreement to have Russia have a military base where they have access to the Baltic Sea. This is in a place called Crimea, a small spigot of land on the aforementioned sea. This place is highly Russian in its ethnic makeup, and had a referendum coming up to determine if they'd break free, stay with Ukraine, or join Russia. Now that the newgovernment has shown up, Russia's afraid that they're going to go press on people or interfere with the refrendum leading to them losing access to their Baltic fleet.

Russia has played its cards very carefully and done nothing illegal. As of right now they've let the Crimeans run the show, and they're just reinforcing the garrisons there.  Basically, right now, Russia wants to wait it out and see what happens, while making a show of strength. "Don't get involved down there, we have the ability to stop you"

Neither side has done anything that would lead to war, and I personally don't think real war is likely. Everyone wants to avoid that.

as the commentator on reddit points out, there's 3 good end games for Russia. One, they use influence to keep the access and Crimea stays with Ukraine. Two, they use political advantage to assure the new Ukrainian government has some Crimean (thus Russian) influence, thus assuring their access and influence. Three, the referendum goes their way, and they get the whole kitten caboodle - probably Crimea joins Russia as either a satellite or just joins the Russian federation. Any of these ways, it makes Put ...


Here's the wording on the treaty. Ukraine is saying that it has been violated, when the Russian troops took over the airports because Kiev is still supposed to have control of the police and military in Crimea.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum_on_Security_Assuran ce s
 
2014-03-02 03:30:15 AM  

Daedalus27: LordJiro: Yeah, real smart there, Ukraine. Instead of giving up Crimea (Mostly Russian anyway, and home to the Russian Black Sea fleet so there was no way in Hell they were going to jeopardize that), you're gonna wave your dick at Putin.

God, I hope the rest of the world isn't dumb enough to get involved.

You are assuming if Ukraine does nothing that Russia is content to only occupy Crimea.  There are many eastern provinces in Ukraine with Russian populations, economic ties to Russia, and that could be incorporated into the Russian sphere of influence. Ukraine sitting back and doing nothing could result in Ukraine losing much of it's territory with no recourse.

Mobilization and deployment of soldiers does not mean a shooting war. It is preparations for one and gives Ukraine options and some tools to use in order to stem the loss of territory. It does increase the likelihood of war, but it may also blunt further Russian territorial aspirations if there is a risk of real opposition.  It also could lead to a miscalculation by either side resulting in a situation that wasn't intended and cannot be controlled.

It is a dangerous development, but not one that is unexpected.  After all, if someone invaded the US and took Florida, we would first thank them, but also the US would take steps to protect the rest of the states so as not to lose them rather than simply relying on the words of the party who just seized territory.


Well, they can also take the Bible Belt. But no more than that.
 
2014-03-02 03:31:57 AM  

Wolf892: So, in laymen speak, how close are we to WW III?


Only one side of the current issue has nukes.
 
2014-03-02 03:32:19 AM  

bigpeeler: Is that everyones kneejerk reaction to anything said against their milquetoast god, Obama? Let's see how he reacts to the forthcoming world events, then get back to me. It's time for him to pull up his big-boy pants and get to work. This situation is serious.


He doesn't have an answer, he just hates Obama.

The truth is that a President McCain or Romney wouldn't start a war with Russia either.  Though McCain would make bellicose threats to embarrass himself a lot more.

Obama and the joint chiefs have known this was likely for months.  They knew Putin's puppet was likely to fall, and that Putin wouldn't stand for it.  The war plans for this specific incursion were probably drawn up 20 years ago.  There is nothing NATO or the US can do to stop Putin taking eastern Ukraine and Crimea.  Nothing.  It is right on his door stop.  The nearest ground NATO ground forces are a 1000 mile slog. Putin's forces are a short march away.

We could hit him with air power, then he'd just attack the rest of Ukraine, maybe the Baltics.  The US and NATO are not going to attack him, though we will back Western Ukraine if it turns to a shooting war.  A move into Western Ukraine would be a hard slog for Russia.  One that with western backing, Ukraine would stand a good chance of winning.

Obama talked with Putin for 90 minutes yesterday.  He probably listed out all the ways he can make Putin's life miserable.

- Kick Russia out of the G8
- EU stops buying Russian gas and oil (petro exports to Europe are the only thing separating Russia from third-world shiatholes)
- Full NATO and EU membership for Western Ukraine, with treaty protection
- Sanctions, trade restrictions, including personal travel bans and asset seizures against Putin and his oligarchs (no more villas in the tropics)

If Putin's smart, he negotiations a way out.  Gets guarantees for his bases and greater autonomy for Crimea and eastern Ukraine.

My take is that Putin's head is blown up by his easy successes, he won't give it up the territory.  He'll earn each of those sanctions and more.  They will do tremendous economic damage to Russia.  Ten years from now, Russia will be half the power it is today.
 
2014-03-02 03:32:48 AM  
When things go bad I can always throw my AK-107 at you.

cdn2.spiegel.de
 
2014-03-02 03:36:30 AM  
This won't end well.
 
2014-03-02 03:38:15 AM  

Cpl.D: saintstryfe: a person on reddit gave a very sober reading of what's going on. The link to the full thing is here but here's the break down if you don't get the whole thing:

Russia controlled Ukraine for several generations as part of the USSR. After the USSR broke up, Ukraine had several governments, but mostly pro-Russian, until the recent turmoil there, which looks like it will place a less friendly-to-Moscow government in place.  Now, during the more happy days (from Moscow's POV) they had an agreement to have Russia have a military base where they have access to the Baltic Sea. This is in a place called Crimea, a small spigot of land on the aforementioned sea. This place is highly Russian in its ethnic makeup, and had a referendum coming up to determine if they'd break free, stay with Ukraine, or join Russia. Now that the newgovernment has shown up, Russia's afraid that they're going to go press on people or interfere with the refrendum leading to them losing access to their Baltic fleet.

Russia has played its cards very carefully and done nothing illegal. As of right now they've let the Crimeans run the show, and they're just reinforcing the garrisons there.  Basically, right now, Russia wants to wait it out and see what happens, while making a show of strength. "Don't get involved down there, we have the ability to stop you"

Neither side has done anything that would lead to war, and I personally don't think real war is likely. Everyone wants to avoid that.

as the commentator on reddit points out, there's 3 good end games for Russia. One, they use influence to keep the access and Crimea stays with Ukraine. Two, they use political advantage to assure the new Ukrainian government has some Crimean (thus Russian) influence, thus assuring their access and influence. Three, the referendum goes their way, and they get the whole kitten caboodle - probably Crimea joins Russia as either a satellite or just joins the Russian federation. Any of these ways, it makes Put ...


The only people bringing up that treaty are ultra-hardline Ukrainian nationalists (whom BTW I'm entirely sympathetic to, no one should have to live under Russian control), and a few American conservatives working to discredit the President for doing exactly what he should. We are under no interdict to help a completely different Ukrainian government. Right now, Ukrainian sovereignty is not under threat. Could that change? Yes. But it'd have to be a big step up from what Russia is doing right now.
 
2014-03-02 03:39:14 AM  

Asa Phelps: Testiclaw: Asa Phelps: bigpeeler: joonyer:

3.5/10

Is that everyones kneejerk reaction to anything said against their milquetoast god, Obama? Let's see how he reacts to the forthcoming world events, then get back to me. It's time for him to pull up his big-boy pants and get to work. This situation is serious.

So, what would a president with balls do?

We're all waiting to hear.

In a previous thread somebody questioned a troll about what "standing up" to Putin meant.  The answer offered was, basically, "standing up" but written in different words.  It circled like that for a while.

I'm guessing this dude is going to do the same thing, if he does anything at all.  He'll probably 1) make the same empty statements about "getting tough", or "manning up", or, 2) selectively respond to more recent posts and drop the same old "Obama needs to step it up" lines to new and unsuspecting victims.

Obama just called me, and told me his red line is two posts.  The dude gets two posts to engage in conversation until he gets the plonk.

/pulls pants up so high my balls hang out

Oh ok, so this is like talking about sports without knowing what the hell is going on.

Did you see that disgraceful display the other night? What has happened to sportsmanship!?


Stop staring at my balls and I'll tell you.
 
2014-03-02 03:40:02 AM  

hinten: When things go bad I can always throw my AK-107 at you.

[cdn2.spiegel.de image 850x561]


That's more than a bit amusing. Where is his assault storage banana?
 
2014-03-02 03:41:27 AM  

hinten: When things go bad I can always throw my AK-107 at you.

[cdn2.spiegel.de image 850x561]


That commentator I quoted said apparently when the Russian troops went in at first, they did not have ammo in their guns, to show they were not a threat. Once Putin got Duma approval, they are now carrying loaded weapons. That said, that's all for show.
 
2014-03-02 03:47:16 AM  

steveGswine: Wolf892: So, in laymen speak, how close are we to WW III?

This farking close


Oh, great!  We're being nuked off key.
 
2014-03-02 03:48:27 AM  

saintstryfe: Cpl.D: saintstryfe: a person on reddit gave a very sober reading of what's going on. The link to the full thing is here but here's the break down if you don't get the whole thing:


The only people bringing up that treaty are ultra-hardline Ukrainian nationalists (whom BTW I'm entirely sympathetic to, no one should have to live under Russian control), and a few American conservatives working to discredit the President for doing exactly what he should. We are under no interdict to help a completely different Ukrainian government. Right now, Ukrainian sovereignty is not under threat. Could that change? Yes. But it'd have to be a big step up from what Russia is doing right now.


They're not the only ones bringing up that treaty. The British foreign secretary is flying to Kiev to meet with the acting president of Ukraine to discuss that and more.

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-26404584

"This action is a potentially grave threat to the sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity of Ukraine. We condemn any act of aggression against Ukraine," the foreign secretary said.
"I spoke to Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov to urge steps to calm this dangerous situation. I told Minister Lavrov that Britain supports the Ukrainian government's request for urgent consultations in accordance with the 1994 Budapest Memorandum signed by the UK, US, Russia and Ukraine."
 
2014-03-02 03:51:17 AM  

saintstryfe: a person on reddit gave a very sober reading of what's going on. The link to the full thing is here but here's the break down if you don't get the whole thing:

Russia controlled Ukraine for several generations as part of the USSR. After the USSR broke up, Ukraine had several governments, but mostly pro-Russian, until the recent turmoil there, which looks like it will place a less friendly-to-Moscow government in place.  Now, during the more happy days (from Moscow's POV) they had an agreement to have Russia have a military base where they have access to the Baltic Sea. This is in a place called Crimea, a small spigot of land on the aforementioned sea. This place is highly Russian in its ethnic makeup, and had a referendum coming up to determine if they'd break free, stay with Ukraine, or join Russia. Now that the newgovernment has shown up, Russia's afraid that they're going to go press on people or interfere with the refrendum leading to them losing access to their Baltic fleet.

Russia has played its cards very carefully and done nothing illegal. As of right now they've let the Crimeans run the show, and they're just reinforcing the garrisons there.  Basically, right now, Russia wants to wait it out and see what happens, while making a show of strength. "Don't get involved down there, we have the ability to stop you"

Neither side has done anything that would lead to war, and I personally don't think real war is likely. Everyone wants to avoid that.

as the commentator on reddit points out, there's 3 good end games for Russia. One, they use influence to keep the access and Crimea stays with Ukraine. Two, they use political advantage to assure the new Ukrainian government has some Crimean (thus Russian) influence, thus assuring their access and influence. Three, the referendum goes their way, and they get the whole kitten caboodle - probably Crimea joins Russia as either a satellite or just joins the Russian federation. Any of these ways, it makes Putin look stron ...


And I was fine with that answer when I read it on Reddit, but since then it looks like the situation has changed somewhat.  Sticking with the more reputable news outlets, it still looks like Russia is more than willing to go North of Crimea.  It doesn't appear like they're 100% content to sit in Sevastapol and Simferopol and let it blow over.  Even if the Pravda article is in error (and it probably is, since it's Pravda), it's essentially a state-run newspaper, and why would a Russian state-run newspaper falsely run a story about Ukraine calling for a general mobilization against Russian forces if not to drum up sympathy for an invasion of the North?  Ukraine and Russia are at the tipping point right now, and Putin is smart enough to know that Pravda running a story like that is exactly what they don't need...

I know, I know, sensationalist media on all sides here, and I hope I'm wrong...I seriously hope Putin is level-headed enough not to start a war with a sovereign nation.  But the reaction he has had to independence bids in Chechnya and Ossetia kind of indicates to me that he wants Russia as big as possible.  With a situation like the rioting in Kiev and ousting Yanukovich, Putin probably saw an opportunity to seize Crimea at the very least (which, as I understand it, wouldn't be a region to say no to rejoining the Russian Federation), and at the very most, step in and occupy the rest of Ukraine "at the request of officials in Kiev" (how I imagine they'd put it), as they did in Afghanistan in 1979.  Like the redditor said...."Russia controlled Ukraine for several generations..."  Putin is old school.  Like, Soviet old school.  He's also an opportunist.  This is a chance for him to get back what rightfully belongs to Mother Russia...

God I hope I'm wrong though...because if I'm right, it won't end with Ukraine....
 
2014-03-02 03:51:45 AM  

mraudacia: do we have any idea yet if nato is going to honor the 1994 agreement to defend Ukraine????


Oh come on. That was then and this is now.
 
2014-03-02 03:53:45 AM  

humanshrapnel:


"THROUH" ?
 
2014-03-02 04:01:23 AM  

HotWingAgenda: Wolf892: So, in laymen speak, how close are we to WW III?

WW3 is going to start with preemptive cyberattacks, not nukes. So if your power, internet and cell service all go out simultaneously with no adverse weather conditions and don't come back up, that could be it.


Or you could just have Comcast.
 
2014-03-02 04:02:03 AM  

cc_rider: They're not the only ones bringing up that treaty.


That treaty has no teeth.  Yes, Russia is in violation.  No, Putin doesn't care.

It's just a document where the various sides agree to something.  If one side violates the treaty, there is no specified penalty.  The signors did not enter into a mutual defense agreement.
 
2014-03-02 04:02:31 AM  

That Guy Jeff: Twist2005: humanshrapnel:

Idiot. Rand Paul's the one who said that.

Also, we might just possibly be farked. farkety fark farked if we uphold the whole treaty business and actually do something about those consequences.

I remember that last time everyone upheld all their treaties involving eastern Europe. Was all "Mustard gas! Zeppelins!"


Geez, were you old enough to figure all that out on your own? Or did your kindergarten teacher hold study sessions on Great War strategy?

Great goin' there, grandpappy.
 
2014-03-02 04:02:48 AM  

Tuskan_Roeder: I know, I know, sensationalist media on all sides here, and I hope I'm wrong...I seriously hope Putin is level-headed enough not to start a war with a sovereign nation.  But the reaction he has had to independence bids in Chechnya and Ossetia kind of indicates to me that he wants Russia as big as possible.  With a situation like the rioting in Kiev and ousting Yanukovich, Putin probably saw an opportunity to seize Crimea at the very least (which, as I understand it, wouldn't be a region to say no to rejoining the Russian Federation), and at the very most, step in and occupy the rest of Ukraine "at the request of officials in Kiev" (how I imagine they'd put it), as they did in Afghanistan in 1979.  Like the redditor said...."Russia controlled Ukraine for several generations..."  Putin is old school.  Like, Soviet old school.  He's also an opportunist.  This is a chance for him to get back what rightfully belongs to Mother Russia...


To be fair, the generations comment was mine - the commentator didn't give that background, I did.

I think you're making Putin into too much of a cartoon character. He is not going to take a nearly sure victory - a chunk of political power in the new Ukrainian government, a new Russian Federation state, or even just a simple agreement to keep the bases in Russian control - and give that up to show how powerful he is. You're absolutely right that Putin is a opportunist. And a good opportunist as Putin is knows not to overplay your hand, or someone will call you. He goes for further control, he could lose the bases, Crimea, have major sanctions put on him and his oligarchy, have oil and gas pipelines cut off, and then face major pressure at home.

I doubt he's that much of a risk taker. I also think he learned from Chechnya and South Ossetia. He'll play this one strictly by the book and take what he can get. He can only come out looking good in this to his people if he just doesn't overplay the hand.
 
2014-03-02 04:03:27 AM  

RandomRandom: bigpeeler: Is that everyones kneejerk reaction to anything said against their milquetoast god, Obama? Let's see how he reacts to the forthcoming world events, then get back to me. It's time for him to pull up his big-boy pants and get to work. This situation is serious.

He doesn't have an answer, he just hates Obama.

The truth is that a President McCain or Romney wouldn't start a war with Russia either.  Though McCain would make bellicose threats to embarrass himself a lot more.

Obama and the joint chiefs have known this was likely for months.  They knew Putin's puppet was likely to fall, and that Putin wouldn't stand for it.  The war plans for this specific incursion were probably drawn up 20 years ago.  There is nothing NATO or the US can do to stop Putin taking eastern Ukraine and Crimea.  Nothing.  It is right on his door stop.  The nearest ground NATO ground forces are a 1000 mile slog. Putin's forces are a short march away.

We could hit him with air power, then he'd just attack the rest of Ukraine, maybe the Baltics.  The US and NATO are not going to attack him, though we will back Western Ukraine if it turns to a shooting war.  A move into Western Ukraine would be a hard slog for Russia.  One that with western backing, Ukraine would stand a good chance of winning.

Obama talked with Putin for 90 minutes yesterday.  He probably listed out all the ways he can make Putin's life miserable.

- Kick Russia out of the G8
- EU stops buying Russian gas and oil (petro exports to Europe are the only thing separating Russia from third-world shiatholes)
- Full NATO and EU membership for Western Ukraine, with treaty protection
- Sanctions, trade restrictions, including personal travel bans and asset seizures against Putin and his oligarchs (no more villas in the tropics)

If Putin's smart, he negotiations a way out.  Gets guarantees for his bases and greater autonomy for Crimea and eastern Ukraine.

My take is that Putin's head is blown up by his easy successes, he won ...


If he takes it that far, to the point of incurring sanctions from the EU which threaten to turn Russia into a shiathole, Putin is exactly the kind of arsehole who will go for broke and start an even bigger war to cover for the repercussions his country suffered from his smaller war.
 
2014-03-02 04:04:57 AM  
fusillade762: super_grass: I bet this will erupt into civil war:
[www.washingtonpost.com image 850x593]
2010 election results.
[img.fark.net image 850x478]
With props to 100 Watt Walrus for posting this in another thread.
So divide the country with a wall. Maybe draw some kind of metallic drape.

Uhh, Have you seen US electoral maps recently (say, 2004 election)?  Regional politics is regional politics
 
2014-03-02 04:06:45 AM  

worlddan: Wait until Hillary is elected, then once again you'll have a president with balls.


She really should give those back to Bill, it is demeaning.
 
2014-03-02 04:07:48 AM  
saintstryfe:
Russia has played its cards very carefully and done nothing illegal. As of right now they've let the Crimeans run the show, and they're just reinforcing the garrisons there.  Basically, right now, Russia wants to wait it out and see what happens, while making a show of strength. "Don't get involved down there, we have the ability to stop you"


COMEDY GOLD.

There is absolutely nothing legal about having Russian soldiers in downtown sevastopol or having its armed forces (with identifying markst removed) take over the crimean parliament.  There's also nothing legal about the years of russian sovereignity-undermining actions including giving russian passports to ukrainians .

You are gullible as a box of rocks given the codswallop that russian propagandist on reddit threw your way.
 
2014-03-02 04:13:33 AM  

saintstryfe: The only people bringing up that treaty are ultra-hardline Ukrainian nationalists (whom BTW I'm entirely sympathetic to, no one should have to live under Russian control), and a few American conservatives working to discredit the President for doing exactly what he should. We are under no interdict to help a completely different Ukrainian government. Right now, Ukrainian sovereignty is not under threat. Could that change? Yes. But it'd have to be a big step up from what Russia is doing right now.


It's more than just hardline Ukrainian nationalists who are concerned with the Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances. The reason it is an issue is because the failure to honor a single agreement by any of the signatory nations rightfully brings into question whether or not those nations will honor their contracts in the future.

I don't know why you think Ukrainian sovereignty isn't under threat. It most definitely is under threat. Crimea is a semi-autonomous region of Ukraine. It belongs to Ukraine. Russia has no right to mobilize troops anywhere other than in Sevastdude what the fark? Phone fark her all you want, but tell her to leave me the fark aloneapol.
 
2014-03-02 04:14:53 AM  

Bomb Head Mohammed: fusillade762: super_grass: I bet this will erupt into civil war:
[www.washingtonpost.com image 850x593]
2010 election results.
[img.fark.net image 850x478]
With props to 100 Watt Walrus for posting this in another thread.
So divide the country with a wall. Maybe draw some kind of metallic drape.

Uhh, Have you seen US electoral maps recently (say, 2004 election)?  Regional politics is regional politics


That electoral map still reflects a civil war the US went through over regional politics.
 
2014-03-02 04:14:56 AM  

RandomRandom: cc_rider: They're not the only ones bringing up that treaty.

That treaty has no teeth.  Yes, Russia is in violation.  No, Putin doesn't care.

It's just a document where the various sides agree to something.  If one side violates the treaty, there is no specified penalty.  The signors did not enter into a mutual defense agreement.


There's no specific penalty true, but if the signatories feel a moral obligation to see that the treaty is honored, they just might act on that.

It's a very tense situation that escalated pretty quickly. The worse-case scenarios would be a war between Ukraine and Russia, or even a Ukrainian Civil War. I think it's in the interests of all parities involved to to prevent these things from happening.
 
2014-03-02 04:16:48 AM  
Parities = "parties", dammit.  ;)
 
2014-03-02 04:18:50 AM  

Marmilman: Russia has no right to mobilize troops anywhere other than in Sevastdude what the fark? Phone fark her all you want, but tell her to leave me the fark aloneapol.


This is a salient point.
 
2014-03-02 04:26:07 AM  
Euromaidan PR ?@EuromaidanPR 2m
General mobilization of #Ukrainians officially has started at 8 am (#Kyiv time) today |PR News #CrimeaInvasion pic.twitter.com/aMiccH9vrB
 
2014-03-02 04:26:19 AM  
Motherfarker. So that's where the cursor was the first time. Mystery solved.
 
2014-03-02 04:30:57 AM  
I hate to say it, but Russia is in the right here. That may change at a moment's notice, granted.
 
2014-03-02 04:32:58 AM  

kazikian: I hate to say it, but Russia is in the right here. That may change at a moment's notice, granted.


10/10 Now that's how you pull them in.
 
2014-03-02 04:54:15 AM  

saintstryfe: a person on reddit gave a very sober reading of what's going on. The link to the full thing is here but here's the break down if you don't get the whole thing:

Russia controlled Ukraine for several generations as part of the USSR. After the USSR broke up, Ukraine had several governments, but mostly pro-Russian, until the recent turmoil there, which looks like it will place a less friendly-to-Moscow government in place.  Now, during the more happy days (from Moscow's POV) they had an agreement to have Russia have a military base where they have access to the Baltic Sea. This is in a place called Crimea, a small spigot of land on the aforementioned sea. This place is highly Russian in its ethnic makeup, and had a referendum coming up to determine if they'd break free, stay with Ukraine, or join Russia. Now that the newgovernment has shown up, Russia's afraid that they're going to go press on people or interfere with the refrendum leading to them losing access to their Baltic fleet.

Russia has played its cards very carefully and done nothing illegal. As of right now they've let the Crimeans run the show, and they're just reinforcing the garrisons there.  Basically, right now, Russia wants to wait it out and see what happens, while making a show of strength. "Don't get involved down there, we have the ability to stop you"

Neither side has done anything that would lead to war, and I personally don't think real war is likely. Everyone wants to avoid that.

as the commentator on reddit points out, there's 3 good end games for Russia. One, they use influence to keep the access and Crimea stays with Ukraine. Two, they use political advantage to assure the new Ukrainian government has some Crimean (thus Russian) influence, thus assuring their access and influence. Three, the referendum goes their way, and they get the whole kitten caboodle - probably Crimea joins Russia as either a satellite or just joins the Russian federation. Any of these ways, it makes Putin look stron ...


I can count at least eight million mistakes in this idiotic summary. But first, tell me more about this Crimean Baltic Fleet...
 
2014-03-02 04:54:26 AM  

saintstryfe: I think you're making Putin into too much of a cartoon character. He is not going to take a nearly sure victory - a chunk of political power in the new Ukrainian government, a new Russian Federation state, or even just a simple agreement to keep the bases in Russian control - and give that up to show how powerful he is. You're absolutely right that Putin is a opportunist. And a good opportunist as Putin is knows not to overplay your hand, or someone will call you. He goes for further control, he could lose the bases, Crimea, have major sanctions put on him and his oligarchy, have oil and gas pipelines cut off, and then face major pressure at home.


So you think he's going to pull the troops out and give the Crimea back to Ukraine?  Not the bases mind you, but everywhere else?

You're right that it would be Putin's smartest move.  I have to wonder if his inflated sense of self worth might get the better of him.
If he holds onto any part of Ukraine, including Crimea, he faces a huge backlash from the west.

Russia will be ejected from the G8, Ukraine will be fast tracked for NATO and EU membership, Europe will pay more for gas and oil to avoid Russian products, and sanctions, sanction sanctions.
 
2014-03-02 05:00:46 AM  
The truth about the use of Ukraine/The Ukraine

Can't even open one's mouth without making an enemy nowadays
 
2014-03-02 05:03:41 AM  

Marmilman: It's more than just hardline Ukrainian nationalists who are concerned with the Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances. The reason it is an issue is because the failure to honor a single agreement by any of the signatory nations rightfully brings into question whether or not those nations will honor their contracts in the future.


Well we know Putin doesn't feel much like honoring agreements. And I'm sorry, I'm not willing to go to war over a tiny spit of land most famous for being where the Charge of the Light Brigade happened.

No one will think "Gee, the US didn't support that 20 year old treaty that didn't have any repercussions outlined... better not agree to anything with them now!" Likewise with the other signatory nations.

The world changed in these 20 years. I don't disagree that the place belongs to Ukraine (though from my readings it appears it only has it because of a deal Khrushchev made in the 60's...) but I think the real life situation here is who's willing to get shot over this? If the Ukrainians want to run into Russian bullets I don't think we can stop them, but I don't see any good reason to have US soldiers do this. We agreed to protect their sovereignty. If they go after the Russian soldiers there, they are endangering themselves. Yes it's not nice but it's also reality. In a good world Russia and the new Ukrainian government sits down and hammers out a new agreement, no guns involved. But here we are. Most likely outcome is a new agreement between Russia and Ukraine and nothing changes except the sign on the door.

Bomb Head Mohammed: You are gullible as a box of rocks given the codswallop that russian propagandist on reddit threw your way.


So what's your version of the endgame here? Do you want NATO troops to invade Crimea and occupy it? Start a shooting war with the Russians?

Sorry, not going to happen. No one can afford that, Russia least of all. This is a power play, but it's not going to go to guns.
 
2014-03-02 05:06:05 AM  

saintstryfe: Sorry, not going to happen. No one can afford that, Russia least of all. This is a power play, but it's not going to go to guns.


Putin hopes there won't be much fighting.  The enemy gets a vote.  Ukraine is putting their army in the field.

Plans are just plans.
 
2014-03-02 05:08:15 AM  

kazikian: I can count at least eight million mistakes in this idiotic summary. But first, tell me more about this Crimean Baltic Fleet...


Well, I'll give you this: I meant the word port there and wrote the wrong thing. My bad.

I'm not a Poly-Sci major nor do I know the strength of the Russian navy in the Baltic if it's there at all. However, having a military base to protect a port without ships would seem kind of stupid, but then again this whole thing seems very stupid on the outside looking in.
 
2014-03-02 05:09:10 AM  

RandomRandom: saintstryfe: Sorry, not going to happen. No one can afford that, Russia least of all. This is a power play, but it's not going to go to guns.

Putin hopes there won't be much fighting.  The enemy gets a vote.  Ukraine is putting their army in the field.

Plans are just plans.


If Cuba up and took over Guantanamo Bay tomorrow, the US would mobilize too.
 
2014-03-02 05:11:45 AM  

Wolf892: So, in laymen speak, how close are we to WW III?


pretty close, comrade. one ping only, please.
 
2014-03-02 05:12:02 AM  
This is me on the outside:

i1182.photobucket.com

While THIS is me on the inside:

i1182.photobucket.com
 
2014-03-02 05:14:44 AM  

saintstryfe: kazikian: I can count at least eight million mistakes in this idiotic summary. But first, tell me more about this Crimean Baltic Fleet...

Well, I'll give you this: I meant the word port there and wrote the wrong thing. My bad.

I'm not a Poly-Sci major nor do I know the strength of the Russian navy in the Baltic if it's there at all. However, having a military base to protect a port without ships would seem kind of stupid, but then again this whole thing seems very stupid on the outside looking in.


Sorry, that's still not it ;) Hint: the Baltic Sea you are looking for cannot be found.
 
2014-03-02 05:15:04 AM  
Euromaidan PR ?@EuromaidanPR 5m
#Russian troops gave1,5hours to military unit in #Perevalnuy to lay down weapons,otherwise they promises to start armed assault-hromadske.tv
 
2014-03-02 05:16:54 AM  
The  Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances treaty doesn't really matter at all right now, for a few reasons...

1. No where in the treaty does it say that anyone has to come to Ukraine's defense if Ukraine's sovereignty is challenged.  All the treaty says is that Russia, UK, and the US agree that individually none of them would be the aggressor in a challenge to Ukraine's sovereignty.

2. Russia's current position is that the protester driven ouster of president Yanukovych is not a legitimate state action, and thus the new government in Kiev does not have any legitimate sovereignty over Ukraine.  If Russia ever does comment on the treaty, their stated position will likely be that they have not violated the treaty because their actions have only been according to the wishes of Yanukovych, whom Russia believes is still the legitimate president of Ukraine.

3. Even if Russia eventually recognizes the new government in Kiev as being a legitimate government, Russia will still probably hold the position that the new government is a new state entity, and not a continuation of the previous Ukrainian state, and thus any treaty obligations Russia had with the old Ukraine state no longer apply to the new Ukraine state.
 
2014-03-02 05:17:24 AM  

Mock26: How many IPC points do you get for invading the Ukraine?


3....but its a bloody , bloody 3 , and you probably wont be able to hold it for very long, not without some real fancy Japanese footwork
 
2014-03-02 05:21:06 AM  

saintstryfe: If Cuba up and took over Guantanamo Bay tomorrow, the US would mobilize too.


Bad analogy.

Ukraine didn't take the bases.  They didn't even threaten them.

An apt analogy would be if Cuba's government fell and were replaced by one less friendly to the US.  Then, that new government did not move against Gitmo, did not threaten Gitmo, did not even question the lease for Gitmo.

Were that to happen, the US might reinforce Gitmo, but we wouldn't take over the entire south-east of Cuba.

Had Russia just reinforced their bases, this crisis wouldn't be happening.  Instead, Russia has taken government building in the civilian parts of Ukraine.  They've taken the municipal airport, and are moving tens of thousands of troops into Ukraine proper.

It's a false flag operation, right out of the Soviet playbook.
 
2014-03-02 05:21:24 AM  

kazikian: saintstryfe: kazikian: I can count at least eight million mistakes in this idiotic summary. But first, tell me more about this Crimean Baltic Fleet...

Well, I'll give you this: I meant the word port there and wrote the wrong thing. My bad.

I'm not a Poly-Sci major nor do I know the strength of the Russian navy in the Baltic if it's there at all. However, having a military base to protect a port without ships would seem kind of stupid, but then again this whole thing seems very stupid on the outside looking in.

Sorry, that's still not it ;) Hint: the Baltic Sea you are looking for cannot be found.


I see my error. I was mistaken to think Baltic meant related to the Black Sea. I have just learned of and understand my error. However, it is a terminology error. I'm an American and like most Americans, I'm woefully bad at Eastern European geography. A problem that stems that I think stems from the old way of teaching that anything east of the Berlin Wall is commie-commie fark land and all just a big coat of red paint. Again, my mistake.

My incorrect terminology does not I think reject my point: This is a power play by Putin, and he can't really lose unless one of the sides gets really really stupid.
 
2014-03-02 05:24:37 AM  

SuddenlySamhain: Mock26: How many IPC points do you get for invading the Ukraine?

3....but its a bloody , bloody 3 , and you probably wont be able to hold it for very long, not without some real fancy Japanese footwork


But it's an important three because it's like a 6 point swing if you take it from Russia, which all but decimates his ability to replenish troops every turn. You MUST hold Ukraine at all costs if you hope to last any longer.
 
2014-03-02 05:35:56 AM  
I guess all this sh*t starts the same way. one country with territorial ambitions uses the excuse that they are only invading another country to protect the rights of their minority population.
we'll do nothing
/maybe send a tersely worded e-mail.
//I'm sure Putin will be satisfied after he annexes the
Sudetenland.
 
2014-03-02 05:42:56 AM  

Fail in Human Form: Euromaidan PR ?@EuromaidanPR 5m
#Russian troops gave1,5hours to military unit in #Perevalnuy to lay down weapons,otherwise they promises to start armed assault-hromadske.tv


If legit, fawk!
 
2014-03-02 05:46:42 AM  

Wolf892: So, in laymen speak, how close are we to WW III?


I know I may sound arrogant but meh. This is Russia we're talking about. Our army was built to fark them up. Thing is, America doesn't really give much of a damn about the Crimea and really doesn't want to get involved in another war, but at the same time we gotta show Putin that our balls are still hairy and that we aren't afraid to turn the Russian 20th guards Army into a large collection of burned out T-90's and depleted uranium flavored corpses if so we wanted to.

Whatever happens, the winner will be (And always will be) the American television viewing audience.
 
2014-03-02 05:47:32 AM  
If Ukraine has declared a general mobilization, there's a good chance it means that Kiev has already written Crimea off as a lost cause...  We've already seen factions within Ukraine's standing military refuse to follow orders from Kiev in favor of supporting Yanukovych.  A division in loyalties is likely to be even more pronounced at this time if the general draft age population is called up.  Think of it this way... if you're a pro-russian Ukranian living in Crimea, there's probably never been a time when you've more strongly wanted Crimea to break away from Ukraine, and there's probably never been a time when you've been more confident of a break away being successful.  By calling for a general mobilization, Kiev is forcing their populous to formally pick sides and then take up arms, and with the Crimea separatists currently being in such a strong position, Crimea will likely be able to maximize the percentage of their population that mobilizes in opposition to Kiev.  If Kiev's only goal is to hang onto Crimea, then calling for a general mobilization is a bad move.  However, if Kiev is fearful of Russia invading beyond Crimea, then it's possible that Kiev has decided that radicalizing Crimea, and greatly reducing any chance of holding onto it, is a necessary price to pay in order to raise any army that could defend the rest of Ukraine.
 
2014-03-02 05:49:25 AM  
i151.photobucket.com
/oblig
 
2014-03-02 05:50:30 AM  

saintstryfe: No one will think "Gee, the US didn't support that 20 year old treaty that didn't have any repercussions outlined... better not agree to anything with them now!" Likewise with the other signatory nations.


I agree that the Budapest Memorandum has no teeth to it. In fact, it is so hilariously devoid of any actual security assurances that it makes me wonder just what the fark Ukraine was thinking when they gave up their nukes for this:

6. Ukraine, the Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America will consult in the event a situation arises that raises a question concerning these commitments.

However, if the spirit of the security agreement was that Ukraine would receive our protection from external aggression in exchange for giving up nuclear weapons, then we (U.S. and U.K. at the very least) must honor that agreement. There is too much at stake to NOT do so. Mutual Defense Treaties with United States will become meaningless if the U.S. picks and chooses and when it will or will not fulfill contractual obligations.

That being said, we can protect Ukraine without going to war with Russia. We can send a coalition of peace keeping forces to "help Russia" stabilize the region and prevent further Russian-separatist on Ukrainian-nationalist violence. Assuming the interim Ukrainian government requests it, of course.
 
2014-03-02 05:53:10 AM  

RandomRandom: The truth is that a President McCain or Romney wouldn't start a war with Russia either.  Though McCain would make bellicose threats to embarrass himself a lot more.


President McCain (probably) wouldn't, but President Palin almost certainly would....

/ again, what was the GOP thinking back in 2008?
 
2014-03-02 05:55:00 AM  

saintstryfe: If Cuba up and took over Guantanamo Bay tomorrow, the US would mobilize too.


You're right, we would. But that is a false analogy. Ukraine hasn't threatened to take over Russia's naval fleet in Sevastopol in any way, shape, or form.
 
2014-03-02 05:59:49 AM  

Wessoman: Whatever happens, the winner will be (And always will be) the American television viewing audience.


What viewing audience? CNN will run 'breaking news' with this story for short periods, and then go to infomercials instead of feeding in its own international coverage. Other channels are even worse.

And today is the Academy Awards, so I'll bet shiat hits the fan when that's being broadcast.
 
2014-03-02 06:07:53 AM  

RandomRandom: saintstryfe: If Cuba up and took over Guantanamo Bay tomorrow, the US would mobilize too.

Bad analogy.

Ukraine didn't take the bases.  They didn't even threaten them.

An apt analogy would be if Cuba's government fell and were replaced by one less friendly to the US.  Then, that new government did not move against Gitmo, did not threaten Gitmo, did not even question the lease for Gitmo.

Were that to happen, the US might reinforce Gitmo, but we wouldn't take over the entire south-east of Cuba.

Had Russia just reinforced their bases, this crisis wouldn't be happening.  Instead, Russia has taken government building in the civilian parts of Ukraine.  They've taken the municipal airport, and are moving tens of thousands of troops into Ukraine proper.

It's a false flag operation, right out of the Soviet playbook.


That's not a good analogy either.  A better one would be this...

Let's pretend that at some point in the future, Communist Cuba has collapsed and been replaced by a new government that is aligned with the west.  The US continues to lease Guantanamo Bay from this new Cuban government.  A lot of Cuban-Americans move back to Cuba, with many of them settling in the area around Guantanamo Bay.  Now, let's say that a popular uprising begins in one part of this new Cuba.  The protesters supporting this uprising want Cuba to lessen ties with the west and to instead strengthen ties with China.  The protesters march on Havana, and things turn violent.  The current Cuban president has strong support amongst the Cuban-American populous in the Guantanamo Bay area, but little support in Havana proper, and with a civil war looking imminent, he flees the capital.  The Havana parliament then appoints a new, pro-chinese president, while at the same time, the ousted president declares that he is still the legitimate president, and that parliament didn't legally have the right to remove him in the way they did.  The ousted president, along with his Cuban-American base, also calls for the US to help them, while publicly claiming that the protesters were supported by covert Chinese agitators.  What do you think the US would do at that point?
 
2014-03-02 06:09:40 AM  

T-Servo: Wessoman: Whatever happens, the winner will be (And always will be) the American television viewing audience.

What viewing audience? CNN will run 'breaking news' with this story for short periods, and then go to infomercials instead of feeding in its own international coverage. Other channels are even worse.

And today is the Academy Awards, so I'll bet shiat hits the fan when that's being broadcast.


Pretty much this. But what I meant is that the American people will only care as long as this crisis entertains them or directly concerns them.

Honestly, however, I think the Russians really farked up here in a big way.
 
2014-03-02 06:12:37 AM  
Dnrtfa on the page with farking popups
 
2014-03-02 06:15:16 AM  

Vantango84: Wolf892: So, in laymen speak, how close are we to WW III?

somewhere between "gonna start on Wednesday" and "Probably nothing to worry about"


i vote Wednesday!
static.fjcdn.com
 
2014-03-02 06:16:17 AM  

saintstryfe: Now, during the more happy days (from Moscow's POV) they had an agreement to have Russia have a military base where they have access to the Baltic Sea. This is in a place called Crimea, a small spigot of land on the aforementioned sea.


upload.wikimedia.org
upload.wikimedia.org

1) The Baltic is not the Black Sea.
2) The Crimean Peninsula is about the size of Haiti, it is by no means small.
3) You probably already know these things or you are very uninformed.
 
2014-03-02 06:16:34 AM  
"Don't mess with Girl Scouts and don't mess with soldiers,"
hear that Putin? you wanna wake up the sleeping giant?
/quote from the stolen tip jar article.
//see, I do read the articles before I make my asinine comments.
 
2014-03-02 06:18:08 AM  
10.37 UKRAINE PARLIAMENT CALLS FOR INTERNATIONAL MONITORS AND FOR NECESSARY AID TO ENSURE THE SAFETY OF ITS NUCLEAR ASSETS

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/10669670/Uk ra ine-live.html

What? Is this a reference to nuclear power plants, or is it a reference to undeclared nuclear weapons kept despite the 1994 treaty (if so, it would appear Ukraine was right to doubt the worthiness of said treaty...)
 
2014-03-02 06:21:20 AM  

paulseta: 10.37 UKRAINE PARLIAMENT CALLS FOR INTERNATIONAL MONITORS AND FOR NECESSARY AID TO ENSURE THE SAFETY OF ITS NUCLEAR ASSETS

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/10669670/Uk ra ine-live.html

What? Is this a reference to nuclear power plants, or is it a reference to undeclared nuclear weapons kept despite the 1994 treaty (if so, it would appear Ukraine was right to doubt the worthiness of said treaty...)


Could be Chernobyl. They're building a new containment thingie since the old one is falling apart.
 
2014-03-02 06:27:53 AM  

paulseta: 10.37 UKRAINE PARLIAMENT CALLS FOR INTERNATIONAL MONITORS AND FOR NECESSARY AID TO ENSURE THE SAFETY OF ITS NUCLEAR ASSHATS


Am I the only one who read it like that on first glance?
 
2014-03-02 06:36:37 AM  
oi62.tinypic.com
 
2014-03-02 06:39:47 AM  

Marmilman: paulseta: 10.37 UKRAINE PARLIAMENT CALLS FOR INTERNATIONAL MONITORS AND FOR NECESSARY AID TO ENSURE THE SAFETY OF ITS NUCLEAR ASSHATS

Am I the only one who read it like that on first glance?


Yes.
 
2014-03-02 07:04:31 AM  
NATO just seemingly threw itself behind Ukraine independence in their brief press conference held around 20 minutes ago. Interesting.
 
2014-03-02 07:23:35 AM  
Anyone have any info about Ukrainian bases in the Crimea handing over their weapons to Russian troops? Including surface to air missiles (seemed like SAM sites).

Also, FYI: the Ukrainian Navy flagship raised the Russian flag. Starting to sound like a fair amount of desertions in the Ukrainian military in Crimea for these kinds of things to happen.
 
2014-03-02 07:25:45 AM  
 
2014-03-02 07:30:01 AM  

saintstryfe: a person on reddit gave a very sober reading of what's going on. The link to the full thing is here but here's the break down if you don't get the whole thing:

Russia controlled Ukraine for several generations as part of the USSR. After the USSR broke up, Ukraine had several governments, but mostly pro-Russian, until the recent turmoil there, which looks like it will place a less friendly-to-Moscow government in place.  Now, during the more happy days (from Moscow's POV) they had an agreement to have Russia have a military base where they have access to the Baltic Sea. This is in a place called Crimea, a small spigot of land on the aforementioned sea. This place is highly Russian in its ethnic makeup, and had a referendum coming up to determine if they'd break free, stay with Ukraine, or join Russia. Now that the newgovernment has shown up, Russia's afraid that they're going to go press on people or interfere with the refrendum leading to them losing access to their Baltic fleet.

Russia has played its cards very carefully and done nothing illegal. As of right now they've let the Crimeans run the show, and they're just reinforcing the garrisons there.  Basically, right now, Russia wants to wait it out and see what happens, while making a show of strength. "Don't get involved down there, we have the ability to stop you"

Neither side has done anything that would lead to war, and I personally don't think real war is likely. Everyone wants to avoid that.

as the commentator on reddit points out, there's 3 good end games for Russia. One, they use influence to keep the access and Crimea stays with Ukraine. Two, they use political advantage to assure the new Ukrainian government has some Crimean (thus Russian) influence, thus assuring their access and influence. Three, the referendum goes their way, and they get the whole kitten caboodle - probably Crimea joins Russia as either a satellite or just joins the Russian federation. Any of these ways, it makes Putin look stron ...


I'm sure you meant the Black Sea, not Baltic.
 
2014-03-02 07:47:26 AM  
It looks like Putin has two main objectives.

1. First and foremost keep control of a fleet base in the black sea.
2. Keep Russian influence in the old USSR and Warsaw Pact countries.

The fleet base is easy to solve and will let Putin look strong (and that what he wants). Just have the Ukrainian government (with sign off from NATO and the west) sign a lease for the base for a 100 years and Putin can waive the bit of paper for home consumption showing how he is looking after Russian interests.

The next is much trickier to solve. The spread of the EU into the traditional Russian sphere of influence is seen as a direct threat with the likes of Latvia and Estonia doing well out of membership of the EU. This is the tricky thing as other eastern European nations that were once part of the USSR/Warsaw Pact are looking at this new EU and the economic success from the new members. The EU promises that new members are almost equal partners while Russia wants a traditional vassal state so who can blame them from looking west.

The optimal solution would be for a 100 year lease on the fleet base, autonomy for Crimea and a back room promises that the next few Ukrainian governments would be governments of national unity and include both pro-west and pro-Russia factions.
 
2014-03-02 07:55:01 AM  
I'm sure it's nothing.
 
2014-03-02 08:01:59 AM  

Marmilman: NUCLEAR ASSHATS


Deep down, I think we're all most concerned about the nuclear asshats.
 
2014-03-02 08:06:28 AM  

Medic Zero: Anyone have any info about Ukrainian bases in the Crimea handing over their weapons to Russian troops? Including surface to air missiles (seemed like SAM sites).

Also, FYI: the Ukrainian Navy flagship raised the Russian flag. Starting to sound like a fair amount of desertions in the Ukrainian military in Crimea for these kinds of things to happen.


Besieged UKR unit in Crimea is an elite Marine battalion. Officers have voted not to surrender despite the odds.

Link
 
2014-03-02 08:18:03 AM  

Norfolking Chance: The optimal solution would be for a 100 year lease on the fleet base, autonomy for Crimea and a back room promises that the next few Ukrainian governments would be governments of national unity and include both pro-west and pro-Russia factions.


He could have had most of that by just asking.  Or at most, quietly handing Yanukovych to the Hague.  Before he invaded Ukraine, he could probably have received assurances that Ukraine wouldn't be admitted to NATO or the EU.  He's lost that now.

His actions have put a lot of the rest of that off the table as well.   It's doubtful the present Ukrainian government would be willing to guarantee more than the current lease terms.  They won't want anything to do with a unity government if it cedes any level of control to Russian puppets, and it would.

Ukraine has mobilized their army, it's an us vs. them situation now.  If Putin pulls the men back to their bases, he'll receive assurances he can keep the bases, not much more.  If he keeps the troops in Ukraine proper, including the Crimea, he will face debilitating sanctions, expulsion from the G8, and a sharp drop in the petro sales that prop up his regime.

If he moves into Western Ukraine, he will be facing a protracted war.  That could even happen if he tries to take eastern Ukraine.  He best move now is to negotiate for whatever he can get, but it won't be much more than he had last week.
 .
 
2014-03-02 08:34:02 AM  

fusillade762: super_grass: I bet this will erupt into civil war:

[www.washingtonpost.com image 850x593]

2010 election results.

[img.fark.net image 850x478]

With props to 100 Watt Walrus for posting this in another thread.

So divide the country with a wall. Maybe draw some kind of metallic drape.


a split landlocks the northern country. This will not end well.
 
2014-03-02 08:38:00 AM  
img.fark.net
 
2014-03-02 08:50:26 AM  
Has Glenn Beck started peddling bomb shelters yet?
 
2014-03-02 09:01:24 AM  

LordJiro: Yeah, real smart there, Ukraine. Instead of giving up Crimea (Mostly Russian anyway, and home to the Russian Black Sea fleet so there was no way in Hell they were going to jeopardize that), you're gonna wave your dick at Putin.

God, I hope the rest of the world isn't dumb enough to get involved.



You're right. Ukraine should just give up the Sudetenland because Der Fuhror Putin wants it. Er I mean Crimea.
 
2014-03-02 09:03:14 AM  

TheWhoppah: Dear Prague,

Sudetenland is German.  It should be part of Germany.

[demotivators.despair.com image 617x435]


Ftfy
 
2014-03-02 09:09:06 AM  

RandomRandom: Norfolking Chance: The optimal solution would be for a 100 year lease on the fleet base, autonomy for Crimea and a back room promises that the next few Ukrainian governments would be governments of national unity and include both pro-west and pro-Russia factions.

He could have had most of that by just asking.  Or at most, quietly handing Yanukovych to the Hague.  Before he invaded Ukraine, he could probably have received assurances that Ukraine wouldn't be admitted to NATO or the EU.  He's lost that now.

His actions have put a lot of the rest of that off the table as well.   It's doubtful the present Ukrainian government would be willing to guarantee more than the current lease terms.  They won't want anything to do with a unity government if it cedes any level of control to Russian puppets, and it would.

Ukraine has mobilized their army, it's an us vs. them situation now.  If Putin pulls the men back to their bases, he'll receive assurances he can keep the bases, not much more.  If he keeps the troops in Ukraine proper, including the Crimea, he will face debilitating sanctions, expulsion from the G8, and a sharp drop in the petro sales that prop up his regime.

If he moves into Western Ukraine, he will be facing a protracted war.  That could even happen if he tries to take eastern Ukraine.  He best move now is to negotiate for whatever he can get, but it won't be much more than he had last week.
 .


Of course Putan could of just asked, but to Putin's mindset if you have to ask you are weak, the strong take what they want and that is what is being played out at the moment (hopefully).
 
2014-03-02 09:25:31 AM  

Romans 7 19: demaL-demaL-yeH: JonBuck: Oh, wait.  Pravda.

There is no truth in Pravda.

Pravda - well, Pravda - Pravda said: "жил был король когда-то при нем блоха жила  " It stinks.

/obscure?


That reminds me of the day I am given first original paper to write. It was on analytic and algebraic topology of locally Euclidean parameterization of infinitely differentiable Riemannian manifold.
 
2014-03-02 09:35:43 AM  

ciberido: Romans 7 19: demaL-demaL-yeH: JonBuck: Oh, wait.  Pravda.

There is no truth in Pravda.

Pravda - well, Pravda - Pravda said: "жил был король когда-то при нем блоха жила  " It stinks.

/obscure?

That reminds me of the day I am given first original paper to write. It was on analytic and algebraic topology of locally Euclidean parameterization of infinitely differentiable Riemannian manifold.


I remember high school, too.
 
2014-03-02 09:46:20 AM  
Guys like Putin don't understand Democratic Republics where the vote is not manipulated. A people can't collectively promise to do what Russia wants. That would be like Ireland promising England that they would never join the EU.

Big Russian bear needs to make friends, not threaten...
 
2014-03-02 09:52:56 AM  

bigpeeler: Is that everyones kneejerk reaction to anything said against their milquetoast god, Obama? Let's see how he reacts to the forthcoming world events, then get back to me. It's time for him to pull up his big-boy pants and get to work. This situation is serious.


Milquetoast for the Milquetoast God!
 
2014-03-02 10:19:38 AM  

TheWhoppah: Asa Phelps: bigpeeler: joonyer:

3.5/10

Is that everyones kneejerk reaction to anything said against their milquetoast god, Obama? Let's see how he reacts to the forthcoming world events, then get back to me. It's time for him to pull up his big-boy pants and get to work. This situation is serious.

So, what would a president with balls do?

We're all waiting to hear.

You might want to sit down for this ...


What you did there. I see it.
 
2014-03-02 10:30:46 AM  

bigpeeler: I miss the days when our President had balls.

[img.fark.net image 605x412]


Isn't that they guy that decided to let China have all of North Korea?

/he also balked at the idea of attacking Russia while we had the technological upper hand.
 
2014-03-02 10:32:27 AM  

TheWhoppah: Dear Kiev,

Sevastopol is Russian.  It should be part of Russia.

[demotivators.despair.com image 617x435]



Texas is Mexican.  It should be part of Mexico.
 
2014-03-02 10:33:25 AM  

Animatronik: Guys like Putin don't understand Democratic Republics where the vote is not manipulated. A people can't collectively promise to do what Russia wants. That would be like Ireland promising England that they would never join the EU.

Big Russian bear needs to make friends, not threaten...


You don't know many Russians, do you? They think differently. Making real friends isn't a big priority among those that I've met.
 
2014-03-02 10:38:19 AM  

saintstryfe: a person on reddit gave a very sober reading of what's going on. The link to the full thing is here but here's the break down if you don't get the whole thing:

Russia controlled Ukraine for several generations as part of the USSR. After the USSR broke up, Ukraine had several governments, but mostly pro-Russian, until the recent turmoil there, which looks like it will place a less friendly-to-Moscow government in place.  Now, during the more happy days (from Moscow's POV) they had an agreement to have Russia have a military base where they have access to the Baltic Sea. This is in a place called Crimea, a small spigot of land on the aforementioned sea. This place is highly Russian in its ethnic makeup, and had a referendum coming up to determine if they'd break free, stay with Ukraine, or join Russia. Now that the newgovernment has shown up, Russia's afraid that they're going to go press on people or interfere with the refrendum leading to them losing access to their Baltic fleet.

Russia has played its cards very carefully and done nothing illegal. As of right now they've let the Crimeans run the show, and they're just reinforcing the garrisons there.  Basically, right now, Russia wants to wait it out and see what happens, while making a show of strength. "Don't get involved down there, we have the ability to stop you"

Neither side has done anything that would lead to war, and I personally don't think real war is likely. Everyone wants to avoid that.

as the commentator on reddit points out, there's 3 good end games for Russia. One, they use influence to keep the access and Crimea stays with Ukraine. Two, they use political advantage to assure the new Ukrainian government has some Crimean (thus Russian) influence, thus assuring their access and influence. Three, the referendum goes their way, and they get the whole kitten caboodle - probably Crimea joins Russia as either a satellite or just joins the Russian federation. Any of these ways, it makes Putin look stron ...


Pretty damn much. Folks are looking to score points, they're looking to use the situation for advantage and waggle fingers, and it has very little to do with the US, looking "strong" and has every bit to do with internal politics in the region, where we have very little say. It isn't our bailiwick. The pearl clutchers are screaming, the news has every interest at this point to drive up coverage, and try to keep folks glued to their sets, and the commentators all have their own agendas, but that has little to do with the actual situation.

The Ossetian crisis was similar. Russia rolled out tanks when dual citizens were under not just fire, but had tanks rolled out to suppress them. The Ossetians were looking at very probable ethnic cleansing, because their neighbors remembered that they had invited the Bolsheviks in when their neighbors had decided that they needed their land, and really didn't like them all that much, and once again they turned to their neighbors to the North for assistance. While there was hue and cry from the folks who STILL see Russia as the dirty Reds, it was less about the US and the West--who oddly enough had done little and had little interest in their protection, and supported them little when they tried to gain their independence on their own to protect themselves from their somewhat unruly neighbors--and entirely internal matters.

Thus far the Russians have done what the US would be doing in a similar situation if Mexico had a sea change and unrest throughout--and if there were a bunch of folks from El Norte who settled across the border--and that is to secure our interests. It boils down to a lot of folks who still see Russia as villains, and there are still elements in Russia who should scare the bejeebus out of folks, but it's not about the Evil Empire, but a nation with a lot of factions, and neighbors with a lot of factions, that have little to do with US interests, save in that they provide some fuel and material to Europe. Could the Russians do some damage to Ukraine if they start shooting? For damn sure. But that has been the case since the fall of the USSR and the split of the nation. Would Russia like a new satellite to secure their interests? Yup. And they've streamlined the process if the Crimea would like to join up. But at this point, that is up in the air. And in the meantime, they have vital interest in keeping their access, and keeping area around that port secure and relatively calm, if the rest of the nation decides to start up a full blown civil war.

The realities of the situation are far less melodramatic than the news agencies are trying to spin it--and likewise, they are ignoring the situation in Ukraine as a whole, to instead mine some easy time to point at the Russians who are doing exactly what they should be doing, in securing their interests while the nation is in dodgy territory internally.
 
2014-03-02 10:39:42 AM  

LordJiro: Yeah, real smart there, Ukraine. Instead of giving up Crimea (Mostly Russian anyway, and home to the Russian Black Sea fleet so there was no way in Hell they were going to jeopardize that), you're gonna wave your dick at Putin.

God, I hope the rest of the world isn't dumb enough to get involved.


chuckgallagher.files.wordpress.com


Hi, what's going on in this thread?
 
2014-03-02 11:00:15 AM  

bigpeeler: joonyer:

3.5/10

Is that everyones kneejerk reaction to anything said against their milquetoast god, Obama? Let's see how he reacts to the forthcoming world events, then get back to me. It's time for him to pull up his big-boy pants and get to work. This situation is serious.


But not serious enough for you to propose any specifics, or, god forbid, fly over there yourself to help out the Ukrainians.

/If it walks like a chickenhawk, and talks like a chickenhawk...
 
2014-03-02 11:01:55 AM  
img.fark.net
 
2014-03-02 11:02:56 AM  
www.johndclare.net

Hey, we're getting the band back together!
 
2014-03-02 12:00:03 PM  

Wessoman: Wolf892: So, in laymen speak, how close are we to WW III?

I know I may sound arrogant but meh. This is Russia we're talking about. Our army was built to fark them up. Thing is, America doesn't really give much of a damn about the Crimea and really doesn't want to get involved in another war, but at the same time we gotta show Putin that our balls are still hairy and that we aren't afraid to turn the Russian 20th guards Army into a large collection of burned out T-90's and depleted uranium flavored corpses if so we wanted to.

Whatever happens, the winner will be (And always will be) the American television viewing audience.


That's one hell of a road march - Voronezh to Simferopol, especially if they don't cut across Ukraine.
 
2014-03-02 12:12:43 PM  
The US should "lend/lease" Ukraine military hardware like some/most of those 3000 parked M-1 Abrams tanks that were designed specifically to fight a land war between tanks in this area of the world.

Kiev should move its forces to their legal border, while making an announcement to those of Russian nationality/connection/heritage:

If you want to live under Russian control, please move to Russia!
If you decide to stay we will defend you and our soveriegn borders.
If you want to continue living in Ukraine, please help us to keep you living in Ukraine, by not helping the Russians take over Ukrainian territory.

That way it reverses the narrative that Russia is writing, that it is just "preparing" to "protect" it's ex-pat population in Ukraine from attacks.
Make it official that those Russian speaking people will be defended from harm, just like any other population in Ukraine.

Of course that means that the government and military of Ukraine would have to actually undertake the protections and restraints to back up that promise, which could be tough if the right-wing nationalists are powerful in the new government.
 
2014-03-02 12:16:00 PM  
Don't fool yourself, we'd do the same damn thing if it was the two million ex pats living in Mexico or one of our far-flung military bases being threatened. Hell, we're doing it already with our Special Ops all over the world. This is not as big a deal as the media makes it out to be.
 
2014-03-02 12:38:19 PM  

Degenz: Don't fool yourself, we'd do the same damn thing if it was the two million ex pats living in Mexico or one of our far-flung military bases being threatened. Hell, we're doing it already with our Special Ops all over the world. This is not as big a deal as the media makes it out to be.


Yeah, but did you actively relocate the original inhabitants from their homelands to less desireable places so you could put your own people there?

Oh, wait.....
 
2014-03-02 01:07:16 PM  
Actually Degenz, the US has faced similar situations without building up military forces and demanding territorial expansion when our ex-pats or military bases were "threatened" by political unrest in a foriegn nation.

Berlin Airlift
Cuban Missle Crisis

In fact most of our far flung military bases/establishments have been largely placed there because there have been other countries trying to do exactly what Russia is doing to Ukraine today.

South Korea, Taiwan, Japan - (As they can only have a defensive force, enforced by the constitution that we wrote for them and they ratified at the end of occupation in 1955 currently limits them, although recently the Parliament has been considering changing that), Phillipines, Cuba, Del Fuego Garcia, etc.

Wherever a continuing threat of violence and annexation is present, the US has established bases with the hosting country's consent.

I don't see anybody's consent being asked for by the Russians in this move, nor has this move been in response to genuine threats to their ex-pats in Eastern Ukraine. All I see is Nazi style propaganda coming from the Russian "news agencies" and Russian Troop reinforcement and political posturing threatening Ukrainian soveriegnty.

Please give an instance when the US has acted this way in almost 75 years. There have been quite a few unfortunate times, up until the mid-1920's where we have been colonial, and agressors for the sake of territorial gain to our near neighbors, and in China, and elsewhere, so the US isn't any different until the post WWII era really.
Since then, the US hasn't acted in that manner, and actually has pursued a policy of trying to get countries not to attack each other for territorial disputes regardless of which population decendency is at stake.

We got it wrong in Vietnam.
We got it all wrong in Iraq II, where we broke the country, and then tried to repair it for 9 more years, but we weren't successful in that at all.
Iraq probably should be 3 countries at this point- Suni, Shi'a and Kurd
Afghanistan, will probably be a failure in the end also, but for historical/traditional/cultural reasons rather than the actual activity that we went in to halt in the first place.
Afghanistan should probably be 4 or 5 countries, probably broken into its provincial regional designations.
Pakistan would also benefit from such a breakup as well, as the differences between West and East are substantial.
 
2014-03-02 01:21:58 PM  

the_cnidarian: bigpeeler: joonyer:

3.5/10

Is that everyones kneejerk reaction to anything said against their milquetoast god, Obama? Let's see how he reacts to the forthcoming world events, then get back to me. It's time for him to pull up his big-boy pants and get to work. This situation is serious.

You think POTUS is a god. Nobody else does. He is part of a nonprofit corporation ruled by us. That includes you. Grab your bootstraps and quit blaming the president for imaginary future infractions.


It's totally natural to think this potus is god when everyone thought the last one was the devil.
 
2014-03-02 01:29:06 PM  

Acravius: Wherever a continuing threat of violence and annexation is present, the US has established bases with the hosting country's consent.


There you go.
 
2014-03-02 02:05:42 PM  

hubiestubert: Thus far the Russians have done what the US would be doing in a similar situation if Mexico had a sea change and unrest throughout--and if there were a bunch of folks from El Norte who settled across the border--and that is to secure our interests. It boils down to a lot of folks who still see Russia as villains, and there are still elements in Russia who should scare the bejeebus out of folks, but it's not about the Evil Empire, but a nation with a lot of factions, and neighbors with a lot of factions, that have little to do with US interests, save in that they provide some fuel and material to Europe. Could the Russians do some damage to Ukraine if they start shooting? For damn sure. But that has been the case since the fall of the USSR and the split of the nation. Would Russia like a new satellite to secure their interests? Yup. And they've streamlined the process if the Crimea would like to join up. But at this point, that is up in the air. And in the meantime, they have vital interest in keeping their access, and keeping area around that port secure and relatively calm, if the rest of the nation decides to start up a full blown civil war. The realities of the situation are far less melodramatic than the news agencies are trying to spin it--and likewise, they are ignoring the situation in Ukraine as a whole, to instead mine some easy time to point at the Russians who are doing exactly what they should be doing, in securing their interests while the nation is in dodgy territory internally.




There is a few things is like to point out. Texas was largely founded because american settlers, overran the Mexican population and eventually succeeded.
And if Mexican wouldn't be able to just re settle in the north. And not only that Mexico has had a troubled government for a while- we haven't had the urge to send our troops over the boarder.

The other thing is this: The Ukraine is a country with its own autonomy. I don't give a damn what the past was- the fact that Russia owned them is irrelevant. While Russia has a right to secure its military bases, it certainly does not have a right to take over ports , capitals and airports. If the Crimea wishes to leave- then there should be something that the Ukrainians work out.

It doesn't help that this is the EXACT reason That two world Wars were started.
 
2014-03-02 02:12:33 PM  

Romans 7 19: блоха


So... Путин = Король, а Блоха = Сергій Аксьонов?

Спасибо, Обама!
 
2014-03-02 02:45:12 PM  
Darth_Lukecash:  It doesn't help that this is the EXACT reason That two world Wars were started.

I would posit that there is far less a chance of this spilling over in such a way, than the tension between Pakistan and India. Or issues in North Korea. While a lot of folks are clutching at pearls, and pointing to the mean, nasty, ebbil Russians, what have they actually done? Just shot willy-nilly? Are they patrolling the streets of the Crimea and rounding up dissidents?

There is less to this than folks would like to make it out. Yes, there IS a lot of yelling from the Ukraine, but that is in part, because the folks in the Ukraine don't like the thought that they won't be able to have their sport without folks within the country, who won't be able to be muzzled or have their families threatened to extinction, and that is sort of the ball that they'd like to play. And in fairness, that's the sort of ball that they were taught to play when they were part of the USSR.

Yes, it is a autonomous nation. Or rather, it would be, if there was anything remotely looking like a consensus within. Right now, there are far too many balls in the air, and the Russians are concerned that someone might get the thought to try something goofy to assert how strong and powerful they are, just to make a point. The Russians are reminding them that it might not be quite so easy to make glib proclamations. And that sort of IS the point. This is a reminder to not get to crazy, because someone IS watching, close by, and who isn't going to stand idly by while they ransack their own populace.

The UN? No one could mobilize anything like a peace keeping force for at least a month. The US? Not bloody likely. The Russians are making a show of it, and while folks are incensed, they are the closest, and while hardly polite about it, they are doing something to ratchet down things, and show that there may in fact, be consequences if they decide to go with a full out civil war.

That doesn't mean that the Russians won't prize out concessions from the new government, look to renegotiate better terms, and certainly if the Crimea wants to exit, they've made the way clearer. They certainly will. And it reminds everyone in the region that shooting up folks that they hold near and dear, or at least financially linked, is quite possibly a Very Bad Idea. Russia IS the honey badger of politics, because they aren't interested in playing nice, and they do not give one single f*ck if everyone knows that they will drop several cases of #10 cans of whoop ass on folks that they deem profitable and linked to them. This is an instructive reminder, in an Old Skoolio Russian sense. Not OUR style--we prefer to make our motions hidden from view, shoot folks from cover, far and away, or at least with enough of a press blackout that it's hard to determine until long after the fact what the Hells went on--but it is very much in keeping with the traditions of the region, and all the screeching and wailing on the Ukraine side, is pretty much looking to appeal to Europe and the US, while they quietly put down the rocks that they were just getting ready to bash in the heads of their neighbors with...
 
2014-03-02 02:51:25 PM  

Wolf892: So, in laymen speak, how close are we to WW III?


Rhino_man: We'll know when the North Atlantic Council convenes.


most likely

Vantango84: somewhere between "gonna start on Wednesday" and "Probably nothing to worry about"


and

ladyfortuna: ...Russia gets the green light to do whatever the fark they want.


as a result

super_grass: I bet this will erupt into civil war:


And if that's the case, NATO, the UN, and the United States have no real business getting involved unless the Russians perpetrate provable war crimes against Ukrainians. Reports last night indicate that the interim government had advised the Tatars to remain at home and indoors (for obvious reasons) during this 'incident' with Russia, which is a clear indication that, as one person put it at the beginning of the thread, this is essentially "dick swinging." If Ukraine really intended war, the interim government would not be advising Tatars to stay at home and indoors, they'd be encouraging them to do the opposite (though we don't know what they're doing privately, we only know what they're saying publicly.)

Best solution is hold a referendum in Crimea on remaining part of Ukraine or re-absorption into the Russian Federation. The UN and/or NATO sends observers to maintain the integrity of that referendum ballot, and the world abides by the results. This avoids military confrontation and all of the politicians get to save face. If Crimea decides via the referendum ballot to remain part of Ukraine, Russia retains its base until May with no changes and deals with the government to be elected in May regarding the future of the Black Sea Fleet base.

This is not a difficult solution, everyone gets to save face politically, and it's not outside the realm of probability that Crimea would choose to go back to Russia. Either way, if Kiev is crying "freedom and democracy," this is the ideal way to practice what they say are their current values (it's also the perfect way for Russia to put into practice what their public stance is on the matter)--by giving the people of Crimea a choice.  I'm not so deluded as to think that this is what will happen; but this is the best solution for Crimea and for preventing war while allowing all involved to retain their pride (which, let's face it--is perhaps one of the biggest motivators in this situation).
 
2014-03-02 02:56:50 PM  

steveGswine: Wolf892: So, in laymen speak, how close are we to WW III?

This farking close


My cat--who generally ignores whatever human noise comes from the computer-- woke up, ran away from the speakers and looked at me with the most heinously insulted look she has ever given me in her life.
 
2014-03-02 03:14:19 PM  

Cpl.D: saintstryfe: a person on reddit gave a very sober reading of what's going on. The link to the full thing is here but here's the break down if you don't get the whole thing:

Russia controlled Ukraine for several generations as part of the USSR. After the USSR broke up, Ukraine had several governments, but mostly pro-Russian, until the recent turmoil there, which looks like it will place a less friendly-to-Moscow government in place.  Now, during the more happy days (from Moscow's POV) they had an agreement to have Russia have a military base where they have access to the Baltic Sea. This is in a place called Crimea, a small spigot of land on the aforementioned sea. This place is highly Russian in its ethnic makeup, and had a referendum coming up to determine if they'd break free, stay with Ukraine, or join Russia. Now that the newgovernment has shown up, Russia's afraid that they're going to go press on people or interfere with the refrendum leading to them losing access to their Baltic fleet.

Russia has played its cards very carefully and done nothing illegal. As of right now they've let the Crimeans run the show, and they're just reinforcing the garrisons there.  Basically, right now, Russia wants to wait it out and see what happens, while making a show of strength. "Don't get involved down there, we have the ability to stop you"

Neither side has done anything that would lead to war, and I personally don't think real war is likely. Everyone wants to avoid that.

as the commentator on reddit points out, there's 3 good end games for Russia. One, they use influence to keep the access and Crimea stays with Ukraine. Two, they use political advantage to assure the new Ukrainian government has some Crimean (thus Russian) influence, thus assuring their access and influence. Three, the referendum goes their way, and they get the whole kitten caboodle - probably Crimea joins Russia as either a satellite or just joins the Russian federation. Any of these ways, it makes Put ...


Well, that's the trick: no one's positive if the "treaty" obligates the US and Britain to use military force to guarantee Ukraine's sovereignty. And the wording is vague. International lawyers are in heavy discussion about it... but NATO has issued stern warnings to Russia to take care, the UN has convened sessions (I've not read the outcome of those yet) about the appearance of Russia's actions to the outside world, and the US has issued some harsh warnings to Russia as well. But it is very important to note that the US and Britain's actions are well within the scope of their obligations of the Budapest Memorandum (the "treaty" being referred to), which specifically obligates all signatories (the US, Britain, Ukraine and Russia) to "consult" with one another should the terms of the "treaty" be broken (or appear to be broken).

The "treaty" may be being misinterpreted by Ukraine on the self-defense clause (to paraphrase: no signatory shall use weapons against Ukraine except in self-defense in accordance with the UN Charter, which is why the UN is involved, nor shall any signatory use economic coercion on Ukraine, and all signatories shall respect the borders and sovereignty of Ukraine), and that's the big question. It does seem to have been broken, but the question is, aside from consulting with one another--which all signatories have done at length--what responsibility do the United States and Britain have? In addition, Ukraine has been working on some alliances that are the first steps in joining NATO and some trade agreements with the EU (which Yanuk first was happy to sign, then vetoed--allegedly because Putin pressured Ukraine not to sign trade agreements with the EU). That is why NATO has stepped up to the plate in this.

TL;DR It's pretty much the UN's job to determine whether the US and Britain have a responsibility to counter military threat with military threat in Ukraine--whoever deals with international law and agreements makes that determination, and since Obama said today that Putin has breached international law and there are now few Russians to be found, my guess (and it is just a guess because IANAL) is that the lawyers have spoken on that matter (again, don't know, not a lawyer, but it's an interesting development to me). NATO is a whole separate ball of wax, but since Ukraine is also involved with NATO, NATO does have a dog in this fight and may choose to involve itself militarily, completely separate from the Budapest Memorandum.
 
2014-03-02 04:00:46 PM  

Degenz: Don't fool yourself, we'd do the same damn thing if it was the two million ex pats living in Mexico or one of our far-flung military bases being threatened. Hell, we're doing it already with our Special Ops all over the world. This is not as big a deal as the media makes it out to be.


Yes. But what does that have to do with this? Ukraine has given Russia zero reason to believe they would back out of the treaty to which they agreed giving Russia basing privileges at Sevastopol. Where's the threat?
 
2014-03-02 04:03:44 PM  

kazikian: I hate to say it, but Russia is in the right here. That may change at a moment's notice, granted.


Oh really please explain in detail.
 
2014-03-02 05:10:16 PM  

Wolf892: So, in laymen speak, how close are we to WW III?


farm6.staticflickr.com
 
2014-03-02 06:02:14 PM  

Wessoman: Wolf892: So, in laymen speak, how close are we to WW III?

I know I may sound arrogant but meh. This is Russia we're talking about. Our army was built to fark them up. Thing is, America doesn't really give much of a damn about the Crimea and really doesn't want to get involved in another war, but at the same time we gotta show Putin that our balls are still hairy and that we aren't afraid to turn the Russian 20th guards Army into a large collection of burned out T-90's and depleted uranium flavored corpses if so we wanted to.

Whatever happens, the winner will be (And always will be) the American television viewing audience.


Those are utterly empty words , vain and idiotic. Americas strength has bled out from dozens of mortal wounds. From rampant obesity to a plethora of Snowdens  to A bloody and pointless occupation of Iraq that lasted more than a decade to anotther equally pointless occupation of Afganistan thats STILL going on to economic troubles that are not far from the ones gripping Europe to worn out military equipment to (according to the most recent 20/20) fighter jet technology that lags behind both Russia AND China......make no mistake , this list (which reads like an indictment) scarcely scratches the surface. if you think im foolish to make this post then allow me to point out that Russia has already invaded a NATO member after conversing with the president and China is openly prepping themselves to make war against Japan... Things that would have NEVER happened even 10 years ago.
 Americas claws are dull and its teeth reduced to stumps. Its enemies are far more aware of its failing health than its citizens
 You can make LOUD invocations to the Fist Of An Angry God with the same enthusiasim of the pagan priests of antiquity but their gods were more likely to answer them than your God Of American Jingoism is to answer you.

 Why dont you go help yourself to an illegal copy of Call of Duty , fix yourself a snack tray and eat , drink and be merry
 
2014-03-02 08:17:16 PM  

Aigoo: Wolf892: So, in laymen speak, how close are we to WW III?

Rhino_man: We'll know when the North Atlantic Council convenes.

most likely

Vantango84: somewhere between "gonna start on Wednesday" and "Probably nothing to worry about"

and

ladyfortuna: ...Russia gets the green light to do whatever the fark they want.

as a result

super_grass: I bet this will erupt into civil war:

And if that's the case, NATO, the UN, and the United States have no real business getting involved unless the Russians perpetrate provable war crimes against Ukrainians. Reports last night indicate that the interim government had advised the Tatars to remain at home and indoors (for obvious reasons) during this 'incident' with Russia, which is a clear indication that, as one person put it at the beginning of the thread, this is essentially "dick swinging." If Ukraine really intended war, the interim government would not be advising Tatars to stay at home and indoors, they'd be encouraging them to do the opposite (though we don't know what they're doing privately, we only know what they're saying publicly.)

Best solution is hold a referendum in Crimea on remaining part of Ukraine or re-absorption into the Russian Federation. The UN and/or NATO sends observers to maintain the integrity of that referendum ballot, and the world abides by the results. This avoids military confrontation and all of the politicians get to save face. If Crimea decides via the referendum ballot to remain part of Ukraine, Russia retains its base until May with no changes and deals with the government to be elected in May regarding the future of the Black Sea Fleet base.

This is not a difficult solution, everyone gets to save face politically, and it's not outside the realm of probability that Crimea would choose to go back to Russia. Either way, if Kiev is crying "freedom and democracy," this is the ideal way to practice what they say are their current values (it's also the perfect way for Russia to put into practi ...


I'll tell you why that's a terrible idea.  Those ethnic-Russians are in Crimea specifically because the Soviet government put their ancestors there to legitimize their claim that Sevastopol should be Russian.  After the Soviet Union collapsed, the repatriation programs were defunded into obscurity specifically to prevent them from coming back into Russia.

They were put - and kept - in Crimea so that Russia could someday point to them and say "See?  The people want this!"
 
2014-03-02 09:32:16 PM  
WWPD

what would Palin do?
 
2014-03-02 09:43:09 PM  

minuslars: WWPD

what would Palin do?


Quit.
 
2014-03-02 10:59:31 PM  

Rhino_man: minuslars: WWPD

what would Palin do?

Quit.


...and then declare victory on Fox News. She is predictable at least...
 
2014-03-02 11:11:28 PM  

minuslars: WWPD

what would Palin do?


She would lean out her window and yell across the Strait, telling Russia to stop.
 
2014-03-03 12:31:02 AM  

chuggernaught: TheWhoppah: Dear Kiev,

Sevastopol is Russian.  It should be part of Russia.

[demotivators.despair.com image 617x435]


Texas is Mexican.  It should be part of Mexico.


www.hogdb.com

I think at this point the trick would be to convince México to take it back.
 
2014-03-03 04:12:53 PM  

TheWhoppah: Dear Kiev,

Sevastopol is Russian.  It should be part of Russia.

[demotivators.despair.com image 617x435]


Isn't that in Wisconsin?
 
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