hubiestubert: Thus far the Russians have done what the US would be doing in a similar situation if Mexico had a sea change and unrest throughout--and if there were a bunch of folks from El Norte who settled across the border--and that is to secure our interests. It boils down to a lot of folks who still see Russia as villains, and there are still elements in Russia who should scare the bejeebus out of folks, but it's not about the Evil Empire, but a nation with a lot of factions, and neighbors with a lot of factions, that have little to do with US interests, save in that they provide some fuel and material to Europe. Could the Russians do some damage to Ukraine if they start shooting? For damn sure. But that has been the case since the fall of the USSR and the split of the nation. Would Russia like a new satellite to secure their interests? Yup. And they've streamlined the process if the Crimea would like to join up. But at this point, that is up in the air. And in the meantime, they have vital interest in keeping their access, and keeping area around that port secure and relatively calm, if the rest of the nation decides to start up a full blown civil war. The realities of the situation are far less melodramatic than the news agencies are trying to spin it--and likewise, they are ignoring the situation in Ukraine as a whole, to instead mine some easy time to point at the Russians who are doing exactly what they should be doing, in securing their interests while the nation is in dodgy territory internally.
Romans 7 19: блоха
Wolf892: So, in laymen speak, how close are we to WW III?
Rhino_man: We'll know when the North Atlantic Council convenes.
Vantango84: somewhere between "gonna start on Wednesday" and "Probably nothing to worry about"
ladyfortuna: ...Russia gets the green light to do whatever the fark they want.
super_grass: I bet this will erupt into civil war:
steveGswine: Wolf892: So, in laymen speak, how close are we to WW III?This farking close
Cpl.D: saintstryfe: a person on reddit gave a very sober reading of what's going on. The link to the full thing is here but here's the break down if you don't get the whole thing:Russia controlled Ukraine for several generations as part of the USSR. After the USSR broke up, Ukraine had several governments, but mostly pro-Russian, until the recent turmoil there, which looks like it will place a less friendly-to-Moscow government in place. Now, during the more happy days (from Moscow's POV) they had an agreement to have Russia have a military base where they have access to the Baltic Sea. This is in a place called Crimea, a small spigot of land on the aforementioned sea. This place is highly Russian in its ethnic makeup, and had a referendum coming up to determine if they'd break free, stay with Ukraine, or join Russia. Now that the newgovernment has shown up, Russia's afraid that they're going to go press on people or interfere with the refrendum leading to them losing access to their Baltic fleet.Russia has played its cards very carefully and done nothing illegal. As of right now they've let the Crimeans run the show, and they're just reinforcing the garrisons there. Basically, right now, Russia wants to wait it out and see what happens, while making a show of strength. "Don't get involved down there, we have the ability to stop you"Neither side has done anything that would lead to war, and I personally don't think real war is likely. Everyone wants to avoid that.as the commentator on reddit points out, there's 3 good end games for Russia. One, they use influence to keep the access and Crimea stays with Ukraine. Two, they use political advantage to assure the new Ukrainian government has some Crimean (thus Russian) influence, thus assuring their access and influence. Three, the referendum goes their way, and they get the whole kitten caboodle - probably Crimea joins Russia as either a satellite or just joins the Russian federation. Any of these ways, it makes Put ...
Degenz: Don't fool yourself, we'd do the same damn thing if it was the two million ex pats living in Mexico or one of our far-flung military bases being threatened. Hell, we're doing it already with our Special Ops all over the world. This is not as big a deal as the media makes it out to be.
kazikian: I hate to say it, but Russia is in the right here. That may change at a moment's notice, granted.
Wessoman: Wolf892: So, in laymen speak, how close are we to WW III?I know I may sound arrogant but meh. This is Russia we're talking about. Our army was built to fark them up. Thing is, America doesn't really give much of a damn about the Crimea and really doesn't want to get involved in another war, but at the same time we gotta show Putin that our balls are still hairy and that we aren't afraid to turn the Russian 20th guards Army into a large collection of burned out T-90's and depleted uranium flavored corpses if so we wanted to.Whatever happens, the winner will be (And always will be) the American television viewing audience.
Aigoo: Wolf892: So, in laymen speak, how close are we to WW III?Rhino_man: We'll know when the North Atlantic Council convenes.most likelyVantango84: somewhere between "gonna start on Wednesday" and "Probably nothing to worry about"andladyfortuna: ...Russia gets the green light to do whatever the fark they want.as a resultsuper_grass: I bet this will erupt into civil war:And if that's the case, NATO, the UN, and the United States have no real business getting involved unless the Russians perpetrate provable war crimes against Ukrainians. Reports last night indicate that the interim government had advised the Tatars to remain at home and indoors (for obvious reasons) during this 'incident' with Russia, which is a clear indication that, as one person put it at the beginning of the thread, this is essentially "dick swinging." If Ukraine really intended war, the interim government would not be advising Tatars to stay at home and indoors, they'd be encouraging them to do the opposite (though we don't know what they're doing privately, we only know what they're saying publicly.)Best solution is hold a referendum in Crimea on remaining part of Ukraine or re-absorption into the Russian Federation. The UN and/or NATO sends observers to maintain the integrity of that referendum ballot, and the world abides by the results. This avoids military confrontation and all of the politicians get to save face. If Crimea decides via the referendum ballot to remain part of Ukraine, Russia retains its base until May with no changes and deals with the government to be elected in May regarding the future of the Black Sea Fleet base.This is not a difficult solution, everyone gets to save face politically, and it's not outside the realm of probability that Crimea would choose to go back to Russia. Either way, if Kiev is crying "freedom and democracy," this is the ideal way to practice what they say are their current values (it's also the perfect way for Russia to put into practi ...
minuslars: WWPDwhat would Palin do?
Rhino_man: minuslars: WWPDwhat would Palin do?Quit.
chuggernaught: TheWhoppah: Dear Kiev,Sevastopol is Russian. It should be part of Russia.[demotivators.despair.com image 617x435]Texas is Mexican. It should be part of Mexico.
TheWhoppah: Dear Kiev,Sevastopol is Russian. It should be part of Russia.[demotivators.despair.com image 617x435]
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