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(Pravda)   Ukraine declares general mobilization after Russia approves use of military force in Crimea   (english.pravda.ru) divider line 217
    More: News, Crimea, Ukraine, Russia, combat readiness, Federation Council, military, President of Russia  
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5724 clicks; posted to Main » on 02 Mar 2014 at 2:27 AM (41 weeks ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2014-03-02 02:05:42 PM  

hubiestubert: Thus far the Russians have done what the US would be doing in a similar situation if Mexico had a sea change and unrest throughout--and if there were a bunch of folks from El Norte who settled across the border--and that is to secure our interests. It boils down to a lot of folks who still see Russia as villains, and there are still elements in Russia who should scare the bejeebus out of folks, but it's not about the Evil Empire, but a nation with a lot of factions, and neighbors with a lot of factions, that have little to do with US interests, save in that they provide some fuel and material to Europe. Could the Russians do some damage to Ukraine if they start shooting? For damn sure. But that has been the case since the fall of the USSR and the split of the nation. Would Russia like a new satellite to secure their interests? Yup. And they've streamlined the process if the Crimea would like to join up. But at this point, that is up in the air. And in the meantime, they have vital interest in keeping their access, and keeping area around that port secure and relatively calm, if the rest of the nation decides to start up a full blown civil war. The realities of the situation are far less melodramatic than the news agencies are trying to spin it--and likewise, they are ignoring the situation in Ukraine as a whole, to instead mine some easy time to point at the Russians who are doing exactly what they should be doing, in securing their interests while the nation is in dodgy territory internally.




There is a few things is like to point out. Texas was largely founded because american settlers, overran the Mexican population and eventually succeeded.
And if Mexican wouldn't be able to just re settle in the north. And not only that Mexico has had a troubled government for a while- we haven't had the urge to send our troops over the boarder.

The other thing is this: The Ukraine is a country with its own autonomy. I don't give a damn what the past was- the fact that Russia owned them is irrelevant. While Russia has a right to secure its military bases, it certainly does not have a right to take over ports , capitals and airports. If the Crimea wishes to leave- then there should be something that the Ukrainians work out.

It doesn't help that this is the EXACT reason That two world Wars were started.
 
2014-03-02 02:12:33 PM  

Romans 7 19: блоха


So... Путин = Король, а Блоха = Сергій Аксьонов?

Спасибо, Обама!
 
2014-03-02 02:45:12 PM  
Darth_Lukecash:  It doesn't help that this is the EXACT reason That two world Wars were started.

I would posit that there is far less a chance of this spilling over in such a way, than the tension between Pakistan and India. Or issues in North Korea. While a lot of folks are clutching at pearls, and pointing to the mean, nasty, ebbil Russians, what have they actually done? Just shot willy-nilly? Are they patrolling the streets of the Crimea and rounding up dissidents?

There is less to this than folks would like to make it out. Yes, there IS a lot of yelling from the Ukraine, but that is in part, because the folks in the Ukraine don't like the thought that they won't be able to have their sport without folks within the country, who won't be able to be muzzled or have their families threatened to extinction, and that is sort of the ball that they'd like to play. And in fairness, that's the sort of ball that they were taught to play when they were part of the USSR.

Yes, it is a autonomous nation. Or rather, it would be, if there was anything remotely looking like a consensus within. Right now, there are far too many balls in the air, and the Russians are concerned that someone might get the thought to try something goofy to assert how strong and powerful they are, just to make a point. The Russians are reminding them that it might not be quite so easy to make glib proclamations. And that sort of IS the point. This is a reminder to not get to crazy, because someone IS watching, close by, and who isn't going to stand idly by while they ransack their own populace.

The UN? No one could mobilize anything like a peace keeping force for at least a month. The US? Not bloody likely. The Russians are making a show of it, and while folks are incensed, they are the closest, and while hardly polite about it, they are doing something to ratchet down things, and show that there may in fact, be consequences if they decide to go with a full out civil war.

That doesn't mean that the Russians won't prize out concessions from the new government, look to renegotiate better terms, and certainly if the Crimea wants to exit, they've made the way clearer. They certainly will. And it reminds everyone in the region that shooting up folks that they hold near and dear, or at least financially linked, is quite possibly a Very Bad Idea. Russia IS the honey badger of politics, because they aren't interested in playing nice, and they do not give one single f*ck if everyone knows that they will drop several cases of #10 cans of whoop ass on folks that they deem profitable and linked to them. This is an instructive reminder, in an Old Skoolio Russian sense. Not OUR style--we prefer to make our motions hidden from view, shoot folks from cover, far and away, or at least with enough of a press blackout that it's hard to determine until long after the fact what the Hells went on--but it is very much in keeping with the traditions of the region, and all the screeching and wailing on the Ukraine side, is pretty much looking to appeal to Europe and the US, while they quietly put down the rocks that they were just getting ready to bash in the heads of their neighbors with...
 
2014-03-02 02:51:25 PM  

Wolf892: So, in laymen speak, how close are we to WW III?


Rhino_man: We'll know when the North Atlantic Council convenes.


most likely

Vantango84: somewhere between "gonna start on Wednesday" and "Probably nothing to worry about"


and

ladyfortuna: ...Russia gets the green light to do whatever the fark they want.


as a result

super_grass: I bet this will erupt into civil war:


And if that's the case, NATO, the UN, and the United States have no real business getting involved unless the Russians perpetrate provable war crimes against Ukrainians. Reports last night indicate that the interim government had advised the Tatars to remain at home and indoors (for obvious reasons) during this 'incident' with Russia, which is a clear indication that, as one person put it at the beginning of the thread, this is essentially "dick swinging." If Ukraine really intended war, the interim government would not be advising Tatars to stay at home and indoors, they'd be encouraging them to do the opposite (though we don't know what they're doing privately, we only know what they're saying publicly.)

Best solution is hold a referendum in Crimea on remaining part of Ukraine or re-absorption into the Russian Federation. The UN and/or NATO sends observers to maintain the integrity of that referendum ballot, and the world abides by the results. This avoids military confrontation and all of the politicians get to save face. If Crimea decides via the referendum ballot to remain part of Ukraine, Russia retains its base until May with no changes and deals with the government to be elected in May regarding the future of the Black Sea Fleet base.

This is not a difficult solution, everyone gets to save face politically, and it's not outside the realm of probability that Crimea would choose to go back to Russia. Either way, if Kiev is crying "freedom and democracy," this is the ideal way to practice what they say are their current values (it's also the perfect way for Russia to put into practice what their public stance is on the matter)--by giving the people of Crimea a choice.  I'm not so deluded as to think that this is what will happen; but this is the best solution for Crimea and for preventing war while allowing all involved to retain their pride (which, let's face it--is perhaps one of the biggest motivators in this situation).
 
2014-03-02 02:56:50 PM  

steveGswine: Wolf892: So, in laymen speak, how close are we to WW III?

This farking close


My cat--who generally ignores whatever human noise comes from the computer-- woke up, ran away from the speakers and looked at me with the most heinously insulted look she has ever given me in her life.
 
2014-03-02 03:14:19 PM  

Cpl.D: saintstryfe: a person on reddit gave a very sober reading of what's going on. The link to the full thing is here but here's the break down if you don't get the whole thing:

Russia controlled Ukraine for several generations as part of the USSR. After the USSR broke up, Ukraine had several governments, but mostly pro-Russian, until the recent turmoil there, which looks like it will place a less friendly-to-Moscow government in place.  Now, during the more happy days (from Moscow's POV) they had an agreement to have Russia have a military base where they have access to the Baltic Sea. This is in a place called Crimea, a small spigot of land on the aforementioned sea. This place is highly Russian in its ethnic makeup, and had a referendum coming up to determine if they'd break free, stay with Ukraine, or join Russia. Now that the newgovernment has shown up, Russia's afraid that they're going to go press on people or interfere with the refrendum leading to them losing access to their Baltic fleet.

Russia has played its cards very carefully and done nothing illegal. As of right now they've let the Crimeans run the show, and they're just reinforcing the garrisons there.  Basically, right now, Russia wants to wait it out and see what happens, while making a show of strength. "Don't get involved down there, we have the ability to stop you"

Neither side has done anything that would lead to war, and I personally don't think real war is likely. Everyone wants to avoid that.

as the commentator on reddit points out, there's 3 good end games for Russia. One, they use influence to keep the access and Crimea stays with Ukraine. Two, they use political advantage to assure the new Ukrainian government has some Crimean (thus Russian) influence, thus assuring their access and influence. Three, the referendum goes their way, and they get the whole kitten caboodle - probably Crimea joins Russia as either a satellite or just joins the Russian federation. Any of these ways, it makes Put ...


Well, that's the trick: no one's positive if the "treaty" obligates the US and Britain to use military force to guarantee Ukraine's sovereignty. And the wording is vague. International lawyers are in heavy discussion about it... but NATO has issued stern warnings to Russia to take care, the UN has convened sessions (I've not read the outcome of those yet) about the appearance of Russia's actions to the outside world, and the US has issued some harsh warnings to Russia as well. But it is very important to note that the US and Britain's actions are well within the scope of their obligations of the Budapest Memorandum (the "treaty" being referred to), which specifically obligates all signatories (the US, Britain, Ukraine and Russia) to "consult" with one another should the terms of the "treaty" be broken (or appear to be broken).

The "treaty" may be being misinterpreted by Ukraine on the self-defense clause (to paraphrase: no signatory shall use weapons against Ukraine except in self-defense in accordance with the UN Charter, which is why the UN is involved, nor shall any signatory use economic coercion on Ukraine, and all signatories shall respect the borders and sovereignty of Ukraine), and that's the big question. It does seem to have been broken, but the question is, aside from consulting with one another--which all signatories have done at length--what responsibility do the United States and Britain have? In addition, Ukraine has been working on some alliances that are the first steps in joining NATO and some trade agreements with the EU (which Yanuk first was happy to sign, then vetoed--allegedly because Putin pressured Ukraine not to sign trade agreements with the EU). That is why NATO has stepped up to the plate in this.

TL;DR It's pretty much the UN's job to determine whether the US and Britain have a responsibility to counter military threat with military threat in Ukraine--whoever deals with international law and agreements makes that determination, and since Obama said today that Putin has breached international law and there are now few Russians to be found, my guess (and it is just a guess because IANAL) is that the lawyers have spoken on that matter (again, don't know, not a lawyer, but it's an interesting development to me). NATO is a whole separate ball of wax, but since Ukraine is also involved with NATO, NATO does have a dog in this fight and may choose to involve itself militarily, completely separate from the Budapest Memorandum.
 
2014-03-02 04:00:46 PM  

Degenz: Don't fool yourself, we'd do the same damn thing if it was the two million ex pats living in Mexico or one of our far-flung military bases being threatened. Hell, we're doing it already with our Special Ops all over the world. This is not as big a deal as the media makes it out to be.


Yes. But what does that have to do with this? Ukraine has given Russia zero reason to believe they would back out of the treaty to which they agreed giving Russia basing privileges at Sevastopol. Where's the threat?
 
2014-03-02 04:03:44 PM  

kazikian: I hate to say it, but Russia is in the right here. That may change at a moment's notice, granted.


Oh really please explain in detail.
 
2014-03-02 05:10:16 PM  

Wolf892: So, in laymen speak, how close are we to WW III?


farm6.staticflickr.com
 
2014-03-02 06:02:14 PM  

Wessoman: Wolf892: So, in laymen speak, how close are we to WW III?

I know I may sound arrogant but meh. This is Russia we're talking about. Our army was built to fark them up. Thing is, America doesn't really give much of a damn about the Crimea and really doesn't want to get involved in another war, but at the same time we gotta show Putin that our balls are still hairy and that we aren't afraid to turn the Russian 20th guards Army into a large collection of burned out T-90's and depleted uranium flavored corpses if so we wanted to.

Whatever happens, the winner will be (And always will be) the American television viewing audience.


Those are utterly empty words , vain and idiotic. Americas strength has bled out from dozens of mortal wounds. From rampant obesity to a plethora of Snowdens  to A bloody and pointless occupation of Iraq that lasted more than a decade to anotther equally pointless occupation of Afganistan thats STILL going on to economic troubles that are not far from the ones gripping Europe to worn out military equipment to (according to the most recent 20/20) fighter jet technology that lags behind both Russia AND China......make no mistake , this list (which reads like an indictment) scarcely scratches the surface. if you think im foolish to make this post then allow me to point out that Russia has already invaded a NATO member after conversing with the president and China is openly prepping themselves to make war against Japan... Things that would have NEVER happened even 10 years ago.
 Americas claws are dull and its teeth reduced to stumps. Its enemies are far more aware of its failing health than its citizens
 You can make LOUD invocations to the Fist Of An Angry God with the same enthusiasim of the pagan priests of antiquity but their gods were more likely to answer them than your God Of American Jingoism is to answer you.

 Why dont you go help yourself to an illegal copy of Call of Duty , fix yourself a snack tray and eat , drink and be merry
 
2014-03-02 08:17:16 PM  

Aigoo: Wolf892: So, in laymen speak, how close are we to WW III?

Rhino_man: We'll know when the North Atlantic Council convenes.

most likely

Vantango84: somewhere between "gonna start on Wednesday" and "Probably nothing to worry about"

and

ladyfortuna: ...Russia gets the green light to do whatever the fark they want.

as a result

super_grass: I bet this will erupt into civil war:

And if that's the case, NATO, the UN, and the United States have no real business getting involved unless the Russians perpetrate provable war crimes against Ukrainians. Reports last night indicate that the interim government had advised the Tatars to remain at home and indoors (for obvious reasons) during this 'incident' with Russia, which is a clear indication that, as one person put it at the beginning of the thread, this is essentially "dick swinging." If Ukraine really intended war, the interim government would not be advising Tatars to stay at home and indoors, they'd be encouraging them to do the opposite (though we don't know what they're doing privately, we only know what they're saying publicly.)

Best solution is hold a referendum in Crimea on remaining part of Ukraine or re-absorption into the Russian Federation. The UN and/or NATO sends observers to maintain the integrity of that referendum ballot, and the world abides by the results. This avoids military confrontation and all of the politicians get to save face. If Crimea decides via the referendum ballot to remain part of Ukraine, Russia retains its base until May with no changes and deals with the government to be elected in May regarding the future of the Black Sea Fleet base.

This is not a difficult solution, everyone gets to save face politically, and it's not outside the realm of probability that Crimea would choose to go back to Russia. Either way, if Kiev is crying "freedom and democracy," this is the ideal way to practice what they say are their current values (it's also the perfect way for Russia to put into practi ...


I'll tell you why that's a terrible idea.  Those ethnic-Russians are in Crimea specifically because the Soviet government put their ancestors there to legitimize their claim that Sevastopol should be Russian.  After the Soviet Union collapsed, the repatriation programs were defunded into obscurity specifically to prevent them from coming back into Russia.

They were put - and kept - in Crimea so that Russia could someday point to them and say "See?  The people want this!"
 
2014-03-02 09:32:16 PM  
WWPD

what would Palin do?
 
2014-03-02 09:43:09 PM  

minuslars: WWPD

what would Palin do?


Quit.
 
2014-03-02 10:59:31 PM  

Rhino_man: minuslars: WWPD

what would Palin do?

Quit.


...and then declare victory on Fox News. She is predictable at least...
 
2014-03-02 11:11:28 PM  

minuslars: WWPD

what would Palin do?


She would lean out her window and yell across the Strait, telling Russia to stop.
 
2014-03-03 12:31:02 AM  

chuggernaught: TheWhoppah: Dear Kiev,

Sevastopol is Russian.  It should be part of Russia.

[demotivators.despair.com image 617x435]


Texas is Mexican.  It should be part of Mexico.


www.hogdb.com

I think at this point the trick would be to convince México to take it back.
 
2014-03-03 04:12:53 PM  

TheWhoppah: Dear Kiev,

Sevastopol is Russian.  It should be part of Russia.

[demotivators.despair.com image 617x435]


Isn't that in Wisconsin?
 
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