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(Pravda)   Ukraine declares general mobilization after Russia approves use of military force in Crimea   (english.pravda.ru) divider line 217
    More: News, Crimea, Ukraine, Russia, combat readiness, Federation Council, military, President of Russia  
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5721 clicks; posted to Main » on 02 Mar 2014 at 2:27 AM (33 weeks ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2014-03-02 03:32:19 AM  

bigpeeler: Is that everyones kneejerk reaction to anything said against their milquetoast god, Obama? Let's see how he reacts to the forthcoming world events, then get back to me. It's time for him to pull up his big-boy pants and get to work. This situation is serious.


He doesn't have an answer, he just hates Obama.

The truth is that a President McCain or Romney wouldn't start a war with Russia either.  Though McCain would make bellicose threats to embarrass himself a lot more.

Obama and the joint chiefs have known this was likely for months.  They knew Putin's puppet was likely to fall, and that Putin wouldn't stand for it.  The war plans for this specific incursion were probably drawn up 20 years ago.  There is nothing NATO or the US can do to stop Putin taking eastern Ukraine and Crimea.  Nothing.  It is right on his door stop.  The nearest ground NATO ground forces are a 1000 mile slog. Putin's forces are a short march away.

We could hit him with air power, then he'd just attack the rest of Ukraine, maybe the Baltics.  The US and NATO are not going to attack him, though we will back Western Ukraine if it turns to a shooting war.  A move into Western Ukraine would be a hard slog for Russia.  One that with western backing, Ukraine would stand a good chance of winning.

Obama talked with Putin for 90 minutes yesterday.  He probably listed out all the ways he can make Putin's life miserable.

- Kick Russia out of the G8
- EU stops buying Russian gas and oil (petro exports to Europe are the only thing separating Russia from third-world shiatholes)
- Full NATO and EU membership for Western Ukraine, with treaty protection
- Sanctions, trade restrictions, including personal travel bans and asset seizures against Putin and his oligarchs (no more villas in the tropics)

If Putin's smart, he negotiations a way out.  Gets guarantees for his bases and greater autonomy for Crimea and eastern Ukraine.

My take is that Putin's head is blown up by his easy successes, he won't give it up the territory.  He'll earn each of those sanctions and more.  They will do tremendous economic damage to Russia.  Ten years from now, Russia will be half the power it is today.
 
2014-03-02 03:32:48 AM  
When things go bad I can always throw my AK-107 at you.

cdn2.spiegel.de
 
2014-03-02 03:36:30 AM  
This won't end well.
 
2014-03-02 03:38:15 AM  

Cpl.D: saintstryfe: a person on reddit gave a very sober reading of what's going on. The link to the full thing is here but here's the break down if you don't get the whole thing:

Russia controlled Ukraine for several generations as part of the USSR. After the USSR broke up, Ukraine had several governments, but mostly pro-Russian, until the recent turmoil there, which looks like it will place a less friendly-to-Moscow government in place.  Now, during the more happy days (from Moscow's POV) they had an agreement to have Russia have a military base where they have access to the Baltic Sea. This is in a place called Crimea, a small spigot of land on the aforementioned sea. This place is highly Russian in its ethnic makeup, and had a referendum coming up to determine if they'd break free, stay with Ukraine, or join Russia. Now that the newgovernment has shown up, Russia's afraid that they're going to go press on people or interfere with the refrendum leading to them losing access to their Baltic fleet.

Russia has played its cards very carefully and done nothing illegal. As of right now they've let the Crimeans run the show, and they're just reinforcing the garrisons there.  Basically, right now, Russia wants to wait it out and see what happens, while making a show of strength. "Don't get involved down there, we have the ability to stop you"

Neither side has done anything that would lead to war, and I personally don't think real war is likely. Everyone wants to avoid that.

as the commentator on reddit points out, there's 3 good end games for Russia. One, they use influence to keep the access and Crimea stays with Ukraine. Two, they use political advantage to assure the new Ukrainian government has some Crimean (thus Russian) influence, thus assuring their access and influence. Three, the referendum goes their way, and they get the whole kitten caboodle - probably Crimea joins Russia as either a satellite or just joins the Russian federation. Any of these ways, it makes Put ...


The only people bringing up that treaty are ultra-hardline Ukrainian nationalists (whom BTW I'm entirely sympathetic to, no one should have to live under Russian control), and a few American conservatives working to discredit the President for doing exactly what he should. We are under no interdict to help a completely different Ukrainian government. Right now, Ukrainian sovereignty is not under threat. Could that change? Yes. But it'd have to be a big step up from what Russia is doing right now.
 
2014-03-02 03:39:14 AM  

Asa Phelps: Testiclaw: Asa Phelps: bigpeeler: joonyer:

3.5/10

Is that everyones kneejerk reaction to anything said against their milquetoast god, Obama? Let's see how he reacts to the forthcoming world events, then get back to me. It's time for him to pull up his big-boy pants and get to work. This situation is serious.

So, what would a president with balls do?

We're all waiting to hear.

In a previous thread somebody questioned a troll about what "standing up" to Putin meant.  The answer offered was, basically, "standing up" but written in different words.  It circled like that for a while.

I'm guessing this dude is going to do the same thing, if he does anything at all.  He'll probably 1) make the same empty statements about "getting tough", or "manning up", or, 2) selectively respond to more recent posts and drop the same old "Obama needs to step it up" lines to new and unsuspecting victims.

Obama just called me, and told me his red line is two posts.  The dude gets two posts to engage in conversation until he gets the plonk.

/pulls pants up so high my balls hang out

Oh ok, so this is like talking about sports without knowing what the hell is going on.

Did you see that disgraceful display the other night? What has happened to sportsmanship!?


Stop staring at my balls and I'll tell you.
 
2014-03-02 03:40:02 AM  

hinten: When things go bad I can always throw my AK-107 at you.

[cdn2.spiegel.de image 850x561]


That's more than a bit amusing. Where is his assault storage banana?
 
2014-03-02 03:41:27 AM  

hinten: When things go bad I can always throw my AK-107 at you.

[cdn2.spiegel.de image 850x561]


That commentator I quoted said apparently when the Russian troops went in at first, they did not have ammo in their guns, to show they were not a threat. Once Putin got Duma approval, they are now carrying loaded weapons. That said, that's all for show.
 
2014-03-02 03:47:16 AM  

steveGswine: Wolf892: So, in laymen speak, how close are we to WW III?

This farking close


Oh, great!  We're being nuked off key.
 
2014-03-02 03:48:27 AM  

saintstryfe: Cpl.D: saintstryfe: a person on reddit gave a very sober reading of what's going on. The link to the full thing is here but here's the break down if you don't get the whole thing:


The only people bringing up that treaty are ultra-hardline Ukrainian nationalists (whom BTW I'm entirely sympathetic to, no one should have to live under Russian control), and a few American conservatives working to discredit the President for doing exactly what he should. We are under no interdict to help a completely different Ukrainian government. Right now, Ukrainian sovereignty is not under threat. Could that change? Yes. But it'd have to be a big step up from what Russia is doing right now.


They're not the only ones bringing up that treaty. The British foreign secretary is flying to Kiev to meet with the acting president of Ukraine to discuss that and more.

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-26404584

"This action is a potentially grave threat to the sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity of Ukraine. We condemn any act of aggression against Ukraine," the foreign secretary said.
"I spoke to Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov to urge steps to calm this dangerous situation. I told Minister Lavrov that Britain supports the Ukrainian government's request for urgent consultations in accordance with the 1994 Budapest Memorandum signed by the UK, US, Russia and Ukraine."
 
2014-03-02 03:51:17 AM  

saintstryfe: a person on reddit gave a very sober reading of what's going on. The link to the full thing is here but here's the break down if you don't get the whole thing:

Russia controlled Ukraine for several generations as part of the USSR. After the USSR broke up, Ukraine had several governments, but mostly pro-Russian, until the recent turmoil there, which looks like it will place a less friendly-to-Moscow government in place.  Now, during the more happy days (from Moscow's POV) they had an agreement to have Russia have a military base where they have access to the Baltic Sea. This is in a place called Crimea, a small spigot of land on the aforementioned sea. This place is highly Russian in its ethnic makeup, and had a referendum coming up to determine if they'd break free, stay with Ukraine, or join Russia. Now that the newgovernment has shown up, Russia's afraid that they're going to go press on people or interfere with the refrendum leading to them losing access to their Baltic fleet.

Russia has played its cards very carefully and done nothing illegal. As of right now they've let the Crimeans run the show, and they're just reinforcing the garrisons there.  Basically, right now, Russia wants to wait it out and see what happens, while making a show of strength. "Don't get involved down there, we have the ability to stop you"

Neither side has done anything that would lead to war, and I personally don't think real war is likely. Everyone wants to avoid that.

as the commentator on reddit points out, there's 3 good end games for Russia. One, they use influence to keep the access and Crimea stays with Ukraine. Two, they use political advantage to assure the new Ukrainian government has some Crimean (thus Russian) influence, thus assuring their access and influence. Three, the referendum goes their way, and they get the whole kitten caboodle - probably Crimea joins Russia as either a satellite or just joins the Russian federation. Any of these ways, it makes Putin look stron ...


And I was fine with that answer when I read it on Reddit, but since then it looks like the situation has changed somewhat.  Sticking with the more reputable news outlets, it still looks like Russia is more than willing to go North of Crimea.  It doesn't appear like they're 100% content to sit in Sevastapol and Simferopol and let it blow over.  Even if the Pravda article is in error (and it probably is, since it's Pravda), it's essentially a state-run newspaper, and why would a Russian state-run newspaper falsely run a story about Ukraine calling for a general mobilization against Russian forces if not to drum up sympathy for an invasion of the North?  Ukraine and Russia are at the tipping point right now, and Putin is smart enough to know that Pravda running a story like that is exactly what they don't need...

I know, I know, sensationalist media on all sides here, and I hope I'm wrong...I seriously hope Putin is level-headed enough not to start a war with a sovereign nation.  But the reaction he has had to independence bids in Chechnya and Ossetia kind of indicates to me that he wants Russia as big as possible.  With a situation like the rioting in Kiev and ousting Yanukovich, Putin probably saw an opportunity to seize Crimea at the very least (which, as I understand it, wouldn't be a region to say no to rejoining the Russian Federation), and at the very most, step in and occupy the rest of Ukraine "at the request of officials in Kiev" (how I imagine they'd put it), as they did in Afghanistan in 1979.  Like the redditor said...."Russia controlled Ukraine for several generations..."  Putin is old school.  Like, Soviet old school.  He's also an opportunist.  This is a chance for him to get back what rightfully belongs to Mother Russia...

God I hope I'm wrong though...because if I'm right, it won't end with Ukraine....
 
2014-03-02 03:51:45 AM  

mraudacia: do we have any idea yet if nato is going to honor the 1994 agreement to defend Ukraine????


Oh come on. That was then and this is now.
 
2014-03-02 03:53:45 AM  

humanshrapnel:


"THROUH" ?
 
2014-03-02 04:01:23 AM  

HotWingAgenda: Wolf892: So, in laymen speak, how close are we to WW III?

WW3 is going to start with preemptive cyberattacks, not nukes. So if your power, internet and cell service all go out simultaneously with no adverse weather conditions and don't come back up, that could be it.


Or you could just have Comcast.
 
2014-03-02 04:02:03 AM  

cc_rider: They're not the only ones bringing up that treaty.


That treaty has no teeth.  Yes, Russia is in violation.  No, Putin doesn't care.

It's just a document where the various sides agree to something.  If one side violates the treaty, there is no specified penalty.  The signors did not enter into a mutual defense agreement.
 
2014-03-02 04:02:31 AM  

That Guy Jeff: Twist2005: humanshrapnel:

Idiot. Rand Paul's the one who said that.

Also, we might just possibly be farked. farkety fark farked if we uphold the whole treaty business and actually do something about those consequences.

I remember that last time everyone upheld all their treaties involving eastern Europe. Was all "Mustard gas! Zeppelins!"


Geez, were you old enough to figure all that out on your own? Or did your kindergarten teacher hold study sessions on Great War strategy?

Great goin' there, grandpappy.
 
2014-03-02 04:02:48 AM  

Tuskan_Roeder: I know, I know, sensationalist media on all sides here, and I hope I'm wrong...I seriously hope Putin is level-headed enough not to start a war with a sovereign nation.  But the reaction he has had to independence bids in Chechnya and Ossetia kind of indicates to me that he wants Russia as big as possible.  With a situation like the rioting in Kiev and ousting Yanukovich, Putin probably saw an opportunity to seize Crimea at the very least (which, as I understand it, wouldn't be a region to say no to rejoining the Russian Federation), and at the very most, step in and occupy the rest of Ukraine "at the request of officials in Kiev" (how I imagine they'd put it), as they did in Afghanistan in 1979.  Like the redditor said...."Russia controlled Ukraine for several generations..."  Putin is old school.  Like, Soviet old school.  He's also an opportunist.  This is a chance for him to get back what rightfully belongs to Mother Russia...


To be fair, the generations comment was mine - the commentator didn't give that background, I did.

I think you're making Putin into too much of a cartoon character. He is not going to take a nearly sure victory - a chunk of political power in the new Ukrainian government, a new Russian Federation state, or even just a simple agreement to keep the bases in Russian control - and give that up to show how powerful he is. You're absolutely right that Putin is a opportunist. And a good opportunist as Putin is knows not to overplay your hand, or someone will call you. He goes for further control, he could lose the bases, Crimea, have major sanctions put on him and his oligarchy, have oil and gas pipelines cut off, and then face major pressure at home.

I doubt he's that much of a risk taker. I also think he learned from Chechnya and South Ossetia. He'll play this one strictly by the book and take what he can get. He can only come out looking good in this to his people if he just doesn't overplay the hand.
 
2014-03-02 04:03:27 AM  

RandomRandom: bigpeeler: Is that everyones kneejerk reaction to anything said against their milquetoast god, Obama? Let's see how he reacts to the forthcoming world events, then get back to me. It's time for him to pull up his big-boy pants and get to work. This situation is serious.

He doesn't have an answer, he just hates Obama.

The truth is that a President McCain or Romney wouldn't start a war with Russia either.  Though McCain would make bellicose threats to embarrass himself a lot more.

Obama and the joint chiefs have known this was likely for months.  They knew Putin's puppet was likely to fall, and that Putin wouldn't stand for it.  The war plans for this specific incursion were probably drawn up 20 years ago.  There is nothing NATO or the US can do to stop Putin taking eastern Ukraine and Crimea.  Nothing.  It is right on his door stop.  The nearest ground NATO ground forces are a 1000 mile slog. Putin's forces are a short march away.

We could hit him with air power, then he'd just attack the rest of Ukraine, maybe the Baltics.  The US and NATO are not going to attack him, though we will back Western Ukraine if it turns to a shooting war.  A move into Western Ukraine would be a hard slog for Russia.  One that with western backing, Ukraine would stand a good chance of winning.

Obama talked with Putin for 90 minutes yesterday.  He probably listed out all the ways he can make Putin's life miserable.

- Kick Russia out of the G8
- EU stops buying Russian gas and oil (petro exports to Europe are the only thing separating Russia from third-world shiatholes)
- Full NATO and EU membership for Western Ukraine, with treaty protection
- Sanctions, trade restrictions, including personal travel bans and asset seizures against Putin and his oligarchs (no more villas in the tropics)

If Putin's smart, he negotiations a way out.  Gets guarantees for his bases and greater autonomy for Crimea and eastern Ukraine.

My take is that Putin's head is blown up by his easy successes, he won ...


If he takes it that far, to the point of incurring sanctions from the EU which threaten to turn Russia into a shiathole, Putin is exactly the kind of arsehole who will go for broke and start an even bigger war to cover for the repercussions his country suffered from his smaller war.
 
2014-03-02 04:04:57 AM  
fusillade762: super_grass: I bet this will erupt into civil war:
[www.washingtonpost.com image 850x593]
2010 election results.
[img.fark.net image 850x478]
With props to 100 Watt Walrus for posting this in another thread.
So divide the country with a wall. Maybe draw some kind of metallic drape.

Uhh, Have you seen US electoral maps recently (say, 2004 election)?  Regional politics is regional politics
 
2014-03-02 04:06:45 AM  

worlddan: Wait until Hillary is elected, then once again you'll have a president with balls.


She really should give those back to Bill, it is demeaning.
 
2014-03-02 04:07:48 AM  
saintstryfe:
Russia has played its cards very carefully and done nothing illegal. As of right now they've let the Crimeans run the show, and they're just reinforcing the garrisons there.  Basically, right now, Russia wants to wait it out and see what happens, while making a show of strength. "Don't get involved down there, we have the ability to stop you"


COMEDY GOLD.

There is absolutely nothing legal about having Russian soldiers in downtown sevastopol or having its armed forces (with identifying markst removed) take over the crimean parliament.  There's also nothing legal about the years of russian sovereignity-undermining actions including giving russian passports to ukrainians .

You are gullible as a box of rocks given the codswallop that russian propagandist on reddit threw your way.
 
2014-03-02 04:13:33 AM  

saintstryfe: The only people bringing up that treaty are ultra-hardline Ukrainian nationalists (whom BTW I'm entirely sympathetic to, no one should have to live under Russian control), and a few American conservatives working to discredit the President for doing exactly what he should. We are under no interdict to help a completely different Ukrainian government. Right now, Ukrainian sovereignty is not under threat. Could that change? Yes. But it'd have to be a big step up from what Russia is doing right now.


It's more than just hardline Ukrainian nationalists who are concerned with the Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances. The reason it is an issue is because the failure to honor a single agreement by any of the signatory nations rightfully brings into question whether or not those nations will honor their contracts in the future.

I don't know why you think Ukrainian sovereignty isn't under threat. It most definitely is under threat. Crimea is a semi-autonomous region of Ukraine. It belongs to Ukraine. Russia has no right to mobilize troops anywhere other than in Sevastdude what the fark? Phone fark her all you want, but tell her to leave me the fark aloneapol.
 
2014-03-02 04:14:53 AM  

Bomb Head Mohammed: fusillade762: super_grass: I bet this will erupt into civil war:
[www.washingtonpost.com image 850x593]
2010 election results.
[img.fark.net image 850x478]
With props to 100 Watt Walrus for posting this in another thread.
So divide the country with a wall. Maybe draw some kind of metallic drape.

Uhh, Have you seen US electoral maps recently (say, 2004 election)?  Regional politics is regional politics


That electoral map still reflects a civil war the US went through over regional politics.
 
2014-03-02 04:14:56 AM  

RandomRandom: cc_rider: They're not the only ones bringing up that treaty.

That treaty has no teeth.  Yes, Russia is in violation.  No, Putin doesn't care.

It's just a document where the various sides agree to something.  If one side violates the treaty, there is no specified penalty.  The signors did not enter into a mutual defense agreement.


There's no specific penalty true, but if the signatories feel a moral obligation to see that the treaty is honored, they just might act on that.

It's a very tense situation that escalated pretty quickly. The worse-case scenarios would be a war between Ukraine and Russia, or even a Ukrainian Civil War. I think it's in the interests of all parities involved to to prevent these things from happening.
 
2014-03-02 04:16:48 AM  
Parities = "parties", dammit.  ;)
 
2014-03-02 04:18:50 AM  

Marmilman: Russia has no right to mobilize troops anywhere other than in Sevastdude what the fark? Phone fark her all you want, but tell her to leave me the fark aloneapol.


This is a salient point.
 
2014-03-02 04:26:07 AM  
Euromaidan PR ?@EuromaidanPR 2m
General mobilization of #Ukrainians officially has started at 8 am (#Kyiv time) today |PR News #CrimeaInvasion pic.twitter.com/aMiccH9vrB
 
2014-03-02 04:26:19 AM  
Motherfarker. So that's where the cursor was the first time. Mystery solved.
 
2014-03-02 04:30:57 AM  
I hate to say it, but Russia is in the right here. That may change at a moment's notice, granted.
 
2014-03-02 04:32:58 AM  

kazikian: I hate to say it, but Russia is in the right here. That may change at a moment's notice, granted.


10/10 Now that's how you pull them in.
 
2014-03-02 04:54:15 AM  

saintstryfe: a person on reddit gave a very sober reading of what's going on. The link to the full thing is here but here's the break down if you don't get the whole thing:

Russia controlled Ukraine for several generations as part of the USSR. After the USSR broke up, Ukraine had several governments, but mostly pro-Russian, until the recent turmoil there, which looks like it will place a less friendly-to-Moscow government in place.  Now, during the more happy days (from Moscow's POV) they had an agreement to have Russia have a military base where they have access to the Baltic Sea. This is in a place called Crimea, a small spigot of land on the aforementioned sea. This place is highly Russian in its ethnic makeup, and had a referendum coming up to determine if they'd break free, stay with Ukraine, or join Russia. Now that the newgovernment has shown up, Russia's afraid that they're going to go press on people or interfere with the refrendum leading to them losing access to their Baltic fleet.

Russia has played its cards very carefully and done nothing illegal. As of right now they've let the Crimeans run the show, and they're just reinforcing the garrisons there.  Basically, right now, Russia wants to wait it out and see what happens, while making a show of strength. "Don't get involved down there, we have the ability to stop you"

Neither side has done anything that would lead to war, and I personally don't think real war is likely. Everyone wants to avoid that.

as the commentator on reddit points out, there's 3 good end games for Russia. One, they use influence to keep the access and Crimea stays with Ukraine. Two, they use political advantage to assure the new Ukrainian government has some Crimean (thus Russian) influence, thus assuring their access and influence. Three, the referendum goes their way, and they get the whole kitten caboodle - probably Crimea joins Russia as either a satellite or just joins the Russian federation. Any of these ways, it makes Putin look stron ...


I can count at least eight million mistakes in this idiotic summary. But first, tell me more about this Crimean Baltic Fleet...
 
2014-03-02 04:54:26 AM  

saintstryfe: I think you're making Putin into too much of a cartoon character. He is not going to take a nearly sure victory - a chunk of political power in the new Ukrainian government, a new Russian Federation state, or even just a simple agreement to keep the bases in Russian control - and give that up to show how powerful he is. You're absolutely right that Putin is a opportunist. And a good opportunist as Putin is knows not to overplay your hand, or someone will call you. He goes for further control, he could lose the bases, Crimea, have major sanctions put on him and his oligarchy, have oil and gas pipelines cut off, and then face major pressure at home.


So you think he's going to pull the troops out and give the Crimea back to Ukraine?  Not the bases mind you, but everywhere else?

You're right that it would be Putin's smartest move.  I have to wonder if his inflated sense of self worth might get the better of him.
If he holds onto any part of Ukraine, including Crimea, he faces a huge backlash from the west.

Russia will be ejected from the G8, Ukraine will be fast tracked for NATO and EU membership, Europe will pay more for gas and oil to avoid Russian products, and sanctions, sanction sanctions.
 
2014-03-02 05:00:46 AM  
The truth about the use of Ukraine/The Ukraine

Can't even open one's mouth without making an enemy nowadays
 
2014-03-02 05:03:41 AM  

Marmilman: It's more than just hardline Ukrainian nationalists who are concerned with the Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances. The reason it is an issue is because the failure to honor a single agreement by any of the signatory nations rightfully brings into question whether or not those nations will honor their contracts in the future.


Well we know Putin doesn't feel much like honoring agreements. And I'm sorry, I'm not willing to go to war over a tiny spit of land most famous for being where the Charge of the Light Brigade happened.

No one will think "Gee, the US didn't support that 20 year old treaty that didn't have any repercussions outlined... better not agree to anything with them now!" Likewise with the other signatory nations.

The world changed in these 20 years. I don't disagree that the place belongs to Ukraine (though from my readings it appears it only has it because of a deal Khrushchev made in the 60's...) but I think the real life situation here is who's willing to get shot over this? If the Ukrainians want to run into Russian bullets I don't think we can stop them, but I don't see any good reason to have US soldiers do this. We agreed to protect their sovereignty. If they go after the Russian soldiers there, they are endangering themselves. Yes it's not nice but it's also reality. In a good world Russia and the new Ukrainian government sits down and hammers out a new agreement, no guns involved. But here we are. Most likely outcome is a new agreement between Russia and Ukraine and nothing changes except the sign on the door.

Bomb Head Mohammed: You are gullible as a box of rocks given the codswallop that russian propagandist on reddit threw your way.


So what's your version of the endgame here? Do you want NATO troops to invade Crimea and occupy it? Start a shooting war with the Russians?

Sorry, not going to happen. No one can afford that, Russia least of all. This is a power play, but it's not going to go to guns.
 
2014-03-02 05:06:05 AM  

saintstryfe: Sorry, not going to happen. No one can afford that, Russia least of all. This is a power play, but it's not going to go to guns.


Putin hopes there won't be much fighting.  The enemy gets a vote.  Ukraine is putting their army in the field.

Plans are just plans.
 
2014-03-02 05:08:15 AM  

kazikian: I can count at least eight million mistakes in this idiotic summary. But first, tell me more about this Crimean Baltic Fleet...


Well, I'll give you this: I meant the word port there and wrote the wrong thing. My bad.

I'm not a Poly-Sci major nor do I know the strength of the Russian navy in the Baltic if it's there at all. However, having a military base to protect a port without ships would seem kind of stupid, but then again this whole thing seems very stupid on the outside looking in.
 
2014-03-02 05:09:10 AM  

RandomRandom: saintstryfe: Sorry, not going to happen. No one can afford that, Russia least of all. This is a power play, but it's not going to go to guns.

Putin hopes there won't be much fighting.  The enemy gets a vote.  Ukraine is putting their army in the field.

Plans are just plans.


If Cuba up and took over Guantanamo Bay tomorrow, the US would mobilize too.
 
2014-03-02 05:11:45 AM  

Wolf892: So, in laymen speak, how close are we to WW III?


pretty close, comrade. one ping only, please.
 
2014-03-02 05:12:02 AM  
This is me on the outside:

i1182.photobucket.com

While THIS is me on the inside:

i1182.photobucket.com
 
2014-03-02 05:14:44 AM  

saintstryfe: kazikian: I can count at least eight million mistakes in this idiotic summary. But first, tell me more about this Crimean Baltic Fleet...

Well, I'll give you this: I meant the word port there and wrote the wrong thing. My bad.

I'm not a Poly-Sci major nor do I know the strength of the Russian navy in the Baltic if it's there at all. However, having a military base to protect a port without ships would seem kind of stupid, but then again this whole thing seems very stupid on the outside looking in.


Sorry, that's still not it ;) Hint: the Baltic Sea you are looking for cannot be found.
 
2014-03-02 05:15:04 AM  
Euromaidan PR ?@EuromaidanPR 5m
#Russian troops gave1,5hours to military unit in #Perevalnuy to lay down weapons,otherwise they promises to start armed assault-hromadske.tv
 
2014-03-02 05:16:54 AM  
The  Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances treaty doesn't really matter at all right now, for a few reasons...

1. No where in the treaty does it say that anyone has to come to Ukraine's defense if Ukraine's sovereignty is challenged.  All the treaty says is that Russia, UK, and the US agree that individually none of them would be the aggressor in a challenge to Ukraine's sovereignty.

2. Russia's current position is that the protester driven ouster of president Yanukovych is not a legitimate state action, and thus the new government in Kiev does not have any legitimate sovereignty over Ukraine.  If Russia ever does comment on the treaty, their stated position will likely be that they have not violated the treaty because their actions have only been according to the wishes of Yanukovych, whom Russia believes is still the legitimate president of Ukraine.

3. Even if Russia eventually recognizes the new government in Kiev as being a legitimate government, Russia will still probably hold the position that the new government is a new state entity, and not a continuation of the previous Ukrainian state, and thus any treaty obligations Russia had with the old Ukraine state no longer apply to the new Ukraine state.
 
2014-03-02 05:17:24 AM  

Mock26: How many IPC points do you get for invading the Ukraine?


3....but its a bloody , bloody 3 , and you probably wont be able to hold it for very long, not without some real fancy Japanese footwork
 
2014-03-02 05:21:06 AM  

saintstryfe: If Cuba up and took over Guantanamo Bay tomorrow, the US would mobilize too.


Bad analogy.

Ukraine didn't take the bases.  They didn't even threaten them.

An apt analogy would be if Cuba's government fell and were replaced by one less friendly to the US.  Then, that new government did not move against Gitmo, did not threaten Gitmo, did not even question the lease for Gitmo.

Were that to happen, the US might reinforce Gitmo, but we wouldn't take over the entire south-east of Cuba.

Had Russia just reinforced their bases, this crisis wouldn't be happening.  Instead, Russia has taken government building in the civilian parts of Ukraine.  They've taken the municipal airport, and are moving tens of thousands of troops into Ukraine proper.

It's a false flag operation, right out of the Soviet playbook.
 
2014-03-02 05:21:24 AM  

kazikian: saintstryfe: kazikian: I can count at least eight million mistakes in this idiotic summary. But first, tell me more about this Crimean Baltic Fleet...

Well, I'll give you this: I meant the word port there and wrote the wrong thing. My bad.

I'm not a Poly-Sci major nor do I know the strength of the Russian navy in the Baltic if it's there at all. However, having a military base to protect a port without ships would seem kind of stupid, but then again this whole thing seems very stupid on the outside looking in.

Sorry, that's still not it ;) Hint: the Baltic Sea you are looking for cannot be found.


I see my error. I was mistaken to think Baltic meant related to the Black Sea. I have just learned of and understand my error. However, it is a terminology error. I'm an American and like most Americans, I'm woefully bad at Eastern European geography. A problem that stems that I think stems from the old way of teaching that anything east of the Berlin Wall is commie-commie fark land and all just a big coat of red paint. Again, my mistake.

My incorrect terminology does not I think reject my point: This is a power play by Putin, and he can't really lose unless one of the sides gets really really stupid.
 
2014-03-02 05:24:37 AM  

SuddenlySamhain: Mock26: How many IPC points do you get for invading the Ukraine?

3....but its a bloody , bloody 3 , and you probably wont be able to hold it for very long, not without some real fancy Japanese footwork


But it's an important three because it's like a 6 point swing if you take it from Russia, which all but decimates his ability to replenish troops every turn. You MUST hold Ukraine at all costs if you hope to last any longer.
 
2014-03-02 05:35:56 AM  
I guess all this sh*t starts the same way. one country with territorial ambitions uses the excuse that they are only invading another country to protect the rights of their minority population.
we'll do nothing
/maybe send a tersely worded e-mail.
//I'm sure Putin will be satisfied after he annexes the
Sudetenland.
 
2014-03-02 05:42:56 AM  

Fail in Human Form: Euromaidan PR ?@EuromaidanPR 5m
#Russian troops gave1,5hours to military unit in #Perevalnuy to lay down weapons,otherwise they promises to start armed assault-hromadske.tv


If legit, fawk!
 
2014-03-02 05:46:42 AM  

Wolf892: So, in laymen speak, how close are we to WW III?


I know I may sound arrogant but meh. This is Russia we're talking about. Our army was built to fark them up. Thing is, America doesn't really give much of a damn about the Crimea and really doesn't want to get involved in another war, but at the same time we gotta show Putin that our balls are still hairy and that we aren't afraid to turn the Russian 20th guards Army into a large collection of burned out T-90's and depleted uranium flavored corpses if so we wanted to.

Whatever happens, the winner will be (And always will be) the American television viewing audience.
 
2014-03-02 05:47:32 AM  
If Ukraine has declared a general mobilization, there's a good chance it means that Kiev has already written Crimea off as a lost cause...  We've already seen factions within Ukraine's standing military refuse to follow orders from Kiev in favor of supporting Yanukovych.  A division in loyalties is likely to be even more pronounced at this time if the general draft age population is called up.  Think of it this way... if you're a pro-russian Ukranian living in Crimea, there's probably never been a time when you've more strongly wanted Crimea to break away from Ukraine, and there's probably never been a time when you've been more confident of a break away being successful.  By calling for a general mobilization, Kiev is forcing their populous to formally pick sides and then take up arms, and with the Crimea separatists currently being in such a strong position, Crimea will likely be able to maximize the percentage of their population that mobilizes in opposition to Kiev.  If Kiev's only goal is to hang onto Crimea, then calling for a general mobilization is a bad move.  However, if Kiev is fearful of Russia invading beyond Crimea, then it's possible that Kiev has decided that radicalizing Crimea, and greatly reducing any chance of holding onto it, is a necessary price to pay in order to raise any army that could defend the rest of Ukraine.
 
2014-03-02 05:49:25 AM  
i151.photobucket.com
/oblig
 
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