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(MSN) NewsFlash Russian troops invade the Crimean region of Ukraine. This will not end well   (news.msn.com) divider line 504
    More: NewsFlash, Crimean, Carnegie Moscow Center, Russians, Ukraine, Vladimir Putin, South Ossetia, Russian troops, Yulia Tymoshenko  
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9400 clicks; posted to Main » on 01 Mar 2014 at 5:59 PM (28 weeks ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»


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2014-03-02 12:34:42 AM
tinfoil-hat maggie:  I still think you'r the smartest farker I kow cause you said all that so well and well we maybe should talk again soonish but not right now,

You know where I'm at, you. Be the best you, you can be. There will be a lot of posturing, and grandstanding in the rest of this, and it will come, essentially, to naught. Well, up until some Ukrainian decides to take a potshot at the Russians, and then sh*t will get real, fast. The Russians don't play at "warning shots" and it will certainly play into their narrative.

The Russians aren't exactly innocents, but they ARE doing exactly what folks who have assets in the region would do, and if they come under fire, they won't hesitate to render that particular section that shots came from to rubble and quietly outgassing corpses that they can then claim did all manner of mischief. I only hope that the Ukraine commanders can keep their people in control enough to NOT start some sh*t, because the Russians WILL end it, and fast. And that will only give them greater claims and greater credibility about their looking to protect their interests.
 
2014-03-02 12:36:49 AM

hubiestubert: tinfoil-hat maggie:  I still think you'r the smartest farker I kow cause you said all that so well and well we maybe should talk again soonish but not right now,

You know where I'm at, you. Be the best you, you can be. There will be a lot of posturing, and grandstanding in the rest of this, and it will come, essentially, to naught. Well, up until some Ukrainian decides to take a potshot at the Russians, and then sh*t will get real, fast. The Russians don't play at "warning shots" and it will certainly play into their narrative.

The Russians aren't exactly innocents, but they ARE doing exactly what folks who have assets in the region would do, and if they come under fire, they won't hesitate to render that particular section that shots came from to rubble and quietly outgassing corpses that they can then claim did all manner of mischief. I only hope that the Ukraine commanders can keep their people in control enough to NOT start some sh*t, because the Russians WILL end it, and fast. And that will only give them greater claims and greater credibility about their looking to protect their interests.


Seriously, isn't there a TF halloween costume thread you poor, pathetic lowlifes can go to?
 
2014-03-02 12:37:24 AM

vygramul: iq_in_binary: vygramul: rohar: tinfoil-hat maggie: Mentat: vygramul: So Neville Chamberlain is considered to have made a huge mistake to let Germany annex the part of Czechoslovakia that was mostly German. But the right move here is to let Russia annex the part of Ukraine that is mostly Russian?

What an odd system of logic.

What's your solution?

This is curious, why do people wanna equate Putin-Russia, with Germany-Hitler. Wow the uneducated mouth breathers get a voice ,well, Even the PNAC crew new Russia would be back on it's feet in 10-15 years from the collapse of the USSR. Well US america got to run rampage where and when they wanted but the time is up on that. Russia is standing up for itself again and IMHO you should read about past Tsars since that seems where this is going.

English, you should learn it.  Papers please?

Beyond that, your premise is flawed.  Russia is no more a power today than it was 10 years ago.  Honestly, it's been slipping further and further into third world shiat hole status since the Soviet Union dissolved and even that wasn't great shakes.  If it wasn't for those pesky nukes, they'd be at terrible risk of occupation themselves.  Many nations have much stronger militaries.  Almost all modern nations have much stronger and more diversified economies.

Their sub-surface fleet is world-class, though. The surface navy doesn't like going far without an ocean-going tug accompanying them. But they got their shiat together under the waves.

No. They just recently (as in, LAST YEAR) regained the ability to patrol south of the equator subsurface. Their sub fleet is for the most part in disrepair and disarray. They've barely got 3 Borei class subs up and running and their Delta IVs practically need tug boats. The idea that their subsurface fleet is anywhere near the same capability as the Cold War days is just plain false.

I didn't say it's the same as the Cold War days, I said it was world-class. And I'd check again - 15 years ago you'd b ...


You didn't actually read my post then. You're right, they did decide to get something going in the subsurface fleet.

The result is 2 SSBNs capable of getting south of the equator in the Pacific, and 1 in the Atlantic. That's it.

Everything else is either out of the water, under repair, or dragging on the sea floor unless it has a tug boat. Their subsurface fleet isn't world class, it's outclassed by France.
 
2014-03-02 12:37:50 AM

Oldiron_79: Scorpitron is reduced to a thin red paste: Oldiron_79: I have no idea with what weapons WWIII will be fought, but WWIV will be fought with sticks and stones.

-Rand Paul

Not even close, that one was from Albert farking Einstein.


Rand Paul has been plagiarizing a shiatload recently, so it's become a fark meme to attribute all quotes to Rand Paul.
 
2014-03-02 12:38:23 AM

tinfoil-hat maggie: vygramul: rohar: Hi there! I'm former RM1(SS) rohar.  Their subsurface fleet is questionable at best.  Loud, easy to find and fragile.  To make up for it, their targeting range is extremely limited and firing is prone to failure.  Sorry buddy, but that's what they've got.

Seriously, we can see their nuclear boats from satellite.  Shielding is an important thing if you want to be stealthy.

Former analyst for the Operations Evaluation Group over at the Navy's FFRDC.

I stand by my assessment. You must be thinking of the Chinese fleet.

And the plot thickens as two sub geeks face off.

Granted I'm not up on the latest but well I doubt we know where all the Russian subs are sure we see them when they leave port nut once they dive. Unless their is a sub tracking it well...


It's called the IUSS. And while being used for research now, it is still under Naval control.
 
2014-03-02 12:42:06 AM

Agent Nick Fury: tinfoil-hat maggie: Agent Nick Fury: tinfoil-hat maggie: Agent Nick Fury: have no idea what I am watching an neither does our government so they need to stay the hell out.

Wow, you're still in this?

In what?

You've been here all day from my perspective. No worry's .

I can say I have less than 50 posts the last three years.

I was here @ 11:00 to see what was going on and then left to work on my car - I was called a pussy for leaving.

I came back @ 4:00 to refute these allegations.

Then, after the Penguins lost to the cheating Blackhawks I come back again.

I'm sure G.M. can confirm my activity because they do that on Total Fark.


Alright dude, it's cool.As-salamu alaykum
 
2014-03-02 12:43:03 AM
I hate to say I told you so.

Who am I kidding?! I love saying I told you so.


I told you so
 
2014-03-02 12:43:33 AM

vygramul: Oldiron_79: Scorpitron is reduced to a thin red paste: Oldiron_79: I have no idea with what weapons WWIII will be fought, but WWIV will be fought with sticks and stones.

-Rand Paul

Not even close, that one was from Albert farking Einstein.

Rand Paul has been plagiarizing a shiatload recently, so it's become a fark meme to attribute all quotes to Rand Paul.


Live long and prosper- Rand Paul
 
2014-03-02 12:43:42 AM

Agent Nick Fury: hubiestubert: tinfoil-hat maggie:  I still think you'r the smartest farker I kow cause you said all that so well and well we maybe should talk again soonish but not right now,

You know where I'm at, you. Be the best you, you can be. There will be a lot of posturing, and grandstanding in the rest of this, and it will come, essentially, to naught. Well, up until some Ukrainian decides to take a potshot at the Russians, and then sh*t will get real, fast. The Russians don't play at "warning shots" and it will certainly play into their narrative.

The Russians aren't exactly innocents, but they ARE doing exactly what folks who have assets in the region would do, and if they come under fire, they won't hesitate to render that particular section that shots came from to rubble and quietly outgassing corpses that they can then claim did all manner of mischief. I only hope that the Ukraine commanders can keep their people in control enough to NOT start some sh*t, because the Russians WILL end it, and fast. And that will only give them greater claims and greater credibility about their looking to protect their interests.

Seriously, isn't there a TF halloween costume thread you poor, pathetic lowlifes can go to?


It is terrible when folks show a modicum of civility and connection, isn't it? How it must gnaw at a soul...
 
2014-03-02 12:43:57 AM

tinfoil-hat maggie: Agent Nick Fury: tinfoil-hat maggie: Agent Nick Fury: tinfoil-hat maggie: Agent Nick Fury: have no idea what I am watching an neither does our government so they need to stay the hell out.

Wow, you're still in this?

In what?

You've been here all day from my perspective. No worry's .

I can say I have less than 50 posts the last three years.

I was here @ 11:00 to see what was going on and then left to work on my car - I was called a pussy for leaving.

I came back @ 4:00 to refute these allegations.

Then, after the Penguins lost to the cheating Blackhawks I come back again.

I'm sure G.M. can confirm my activity because they do that on Total Fark.

Alright dude, it's cool.As-salamu alaykum


Wow, you still here?
 
2014-03-02 12:44:25 AM

iq_in_binary: You didn't actually read my post then. You're right, they did decide to get something going in the subsurface fleet.

The result is 2 SSBNs capable of getting south of the equator in the Pacific, and 1 in the Atlantic. That's it.

Everything else is either out of the water, under repair, or dragging on the sea floor unless it has a tug boat. Their subsurface fleet isn't world class, it's outclassed by France.


You're substantially under-counting. They decommed (read: allowed to rust into oblivion) or sold off most of what they had, but you're off by an order of magnitude for their nuclear attack subs in the Northern Fleet. And the Severodvinsk is a huge leap forward for them as far as design goes.

And they still have half a dozen Kilos in their Pacific Fleet.
 
2014-03-02 12:47:13 AM

hubiestubert: I only hope that the Ukraine commanders can keep their people in control enough to NOT start some sh*t


As far as I can judge, any Ukraine commanders who try to keep "their people" (and by that I mean Right Sector and similar armed paramilitary groups) is declared the Enemy of the People and put under arrest. Currently Maidan pretty much has the power to dismiss the new Kiev's government at will, so it's not as if there is somebody who can control them.

"Self-defense brigades" have more power than local police, and we all know how disciplined and cold-headed self-defense brigades are, in a revolutionary situation.

As for Ukrainian military proper, they certainly aren't going to start shooting at Russian troops now. But it's pretty hard to say what the self-appointed defenders will do, especially if they suffer from delusions of grandeur.
 
2014-03-02 12:48:45 AM
i think deep down inside (and perhaps not so deep down), many of you are drooling in anticipation of conflict.
 
2014-03-02 12:49:31 AM

hubiestubert: Well, up until some Ukrainian decides to take a potshot at the Russians, and then sh*t will get real, fast.


That's the worry.

A larger conflict is certainly not in Putin's game plan, but the game could get away from him.  If shooting starts between his forces and that of the Ukraine, Putin won't easily be able to back down.

There are conflicting reports on how able the Ukrainian military is.  Some analysts think the Russian ground forces are too hollowed out to take on Western Ukraine's military.  Some think the same of Ukraine's forces.  It's probably both.  We've saw the best of what Russia has in Crimea and Georgia.  That level of professionalism probably doesn't run very deep on either side.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/02/world/europe/ukraine-finds-its-for ce s-are-ill-equipped-to-take-crimea-back-from-russia.html?hp

If a war does start between Ukraine and Russia, the west could funnel tremendous assets to the battle.  Unlike the Syrian opposition, we'd probably trust Western Ukraine with anti-aircraft weaponry.  The Russians would have a tough time.
 
2014-03-02 12:50:51 AM

hubiestubert: Agent Nick Fury: hubiestubert: tinfoil-hat maggie:  I still think you'r the smartest farker I kow cause you said all that so well and well we maybe should talk again soonish but not right now,

You know where I'm at, you. Be the best you, you can be. There will be a lot of posturing, and grandstanding in the rest of this, and it will come, essentially, to naught. Well, up until some Ukrainian decides to take a potshot at the Russians, and then sh*t will get real, fast. The Russians don't play at "warning shots" and it will certainly play into their narrative.

The Russians aren't exactly innocents, but they ARE doing exactly what folks who have assets in the region would do, and if they come under fire, they won't hesitate to render that particular section that shots came from to rubble and quietly outgassing corpses that they can then claim did all manner of mischief. I only hope that the Ukraine commanders can keep their people in control enough to NOT start some sh*t, because the Russians WILL end it, and fast. And that will only give them greater claims and greater credibility about their looking to protect their interests.

Seriously, isn't there a TF halloween costume thread you poor, pathetic lowlifes can go to?

It is terrible when folks show a modicum of civility and connection, isn't it? How it must gnaw at a soul...


Yes, making fun of children with Down Syndrome, slobbering over slightly less than totally obese TFers, and how to come down down from a heroin high is definitely the modicum of civility and connection.
 
2014-03-02 12:51:31 AM

RandomRandom: hubiestubert: Well, up until some Ukrainian decides to take a potshot at the Russians, and then sh*t will get real, fast.

That's the worry.

A larger conflict is certainly not in Putin's game plan, but the game could get away from him.  If shooting starts between his forces and that of the Ukraine, Putin won't easily be able to back down.

There are conflicting reports on how able the Ukrainian military is.  Some analysts think the Russian ground forces are too hollowed out to take on Western Ukraine's military.  Some think the same of Ukraine's forces.  It's probably both.  We've saw the best of what Russia has in Crimea and Georgia.  That level of professionalism probably doesn't run very deep on either side.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/02/world/europe/ukraine-finds-its-for ce s-are-ill-equipped-to-take-crimea-back-from-russia.html?hp

If a war does start between Ukraine and Russia, the west could funnel tremendous assets to the battle.  Unlike the Syrian opposition, we'd probably trust Western Ukraine with anti-aircraft weaponry.  The Russians would have a tough time.


If there's one universal truth of international relations it's that there is plenty of opportunity for miscalculation.
 
2014-03-02 12:53:06 AM

vygramul: iq_in_binary: You didn't actually read my post then. You're right, they did decide to get something going in the subsurface fleet.

The result is 2 SSBNs capable of getting south of the equator in the Pacific, and 1 in the Atlantic. That's it.

Everything else is either out of the water, under repair, or dragging on the sea floor unless it has a tug boat. Their subsurface fleet isn't world class, it's outclassed by France.

You're substantially under-counting. They decommed (read: allowed to rust into oblivion) or sold off most of what they had, but you're off by an order of magnitude for their nuclear attack subs in the Northern Fleet. And the Severodvinsk is a huge leap forward for them as far as design goes.

And they still have half a dozen Kilos in their Pacific Fleet.


All of which have to go over IUSS because they can't get south of the Equator. We'd see them coming.

My point still stands.
 
2014-03-02 12:56:07 AM

tinfoil-hat maggie: Kittypie070: Agent Nick Fury: It shows nothing more than the Muslim Brotherhood videos during the Arab Spring.

I have no idea what I am watching

OK, um, you don't know what you are watching, so it's DEFINITELY the M*zzies.

Gotcha.


Hiya hon, good to see you here . So start awar over Ukkraine yea or nea?


Um, Hell no.

The troops just spent way too long in the sandbox and the sh*tbox under the stop-loss policy, and have a shiatty, fractured and underfunded VA to come home to.
 
2014-03-02 12:56:13 AM

Grahor: hubiestubert: I only hope that the Ukraine commanders can keep their people in control enough to NOT start some sh*t

As far as I can judge, any Ukraine commanders who try to keep "their people" (and by that I mean Right Sector and similar armed paramilitary groups) is declared the Enemy of the People and put under arrest. Currently Maidan pretty much has the power to dismiss the new Kiev's government at will, so it's not as if there is somebody who can control them.

"Self-defense brigades" have more power than local police, and we all know how disciplined and cold-headed self-defense brigades are, in a revolutionary situation.

As for Ukrainian military proper, they certainly aren't going to start shooting at Russian troops now. But it's pretty hard to say what the self-appointed defenders will do, especially if they suffer from delusions of grandeur.


Those are good poin mikilitatarym most of the military finally went with the rebels but it's not so clear
 
2014-03-02 01:00:59 AM
You apologists are starting to sound like Jon Lovitz.

"Why yeah, Putin sent the army in to protect Russian immigrants. That's the ticket. It's a humanitarian mission! And you know what else (low voice)...Ukraine has been secretly part of Russia this whole time. (loud voice) So see, they aren't invading anybody!"

By Monday you will have rationalized another Nobel for Obama and his great vision to liberate Ukraine.
 
2014-03-02 01:02:40 AM

Kittypie070: tinfoil-hat maggie: Kittypie070: Agent Nick Fury: It shows nothing more than the Muslim Brotherhood videos during the Arab Spring.

I have no idea what I am watching

OK, um, you don't know what you are watching, so it's DEFINITELY the M*zzies.

Gotcha.

Hiya hon, good to see you here . So start awar over Ukkraine yea or nea?

Um, Hell no.

The troops just spent way too long in the sandbox and the sh*tbox under the stop-loss policy, and have a shiatty, fractured and underfunded VA to come home to.


Welp, good, enough doe me Kitty has spoken adn you warmonger types were probably abused and well ...
 
2014-03-02 01:06:09 AM
The people who govern Russia just make you want to give yourself an atomic facepalm. I once read a newspaper article from the late 1950s where the USSR had developed a weapons system which could hit any spot on Earth, and they were not afraid to use it. Remember this was less than 15 years after the world witnessed the most brutal war in history, a war in which the Russians played a significant role to end it.

Now here we are, about 15 days after Russia welcomed the international community to its land for the Winter Olympics, and they are going after the Ukraine?! Like seriously, most of the population is on the European side, you would think that would rub off a bit to bring the nation to its senses.
 
2014-03-02 01:06:17 AM

Agent Nick Fury: hubiestubert: Agent Nick Fury: hubiestubert: tinfoil-hat maggie:  I still think you'r the smartest farker I kow cause you said all that so well and well we maybe should talk again soonish but not right now,

You know where I'm at, you. Be the best you, you can be. There will be a lot of posturing, and grandstanding in the rest of this, and it will come, essentially, to naught. Well, up until some Ukrainian decides to take a potshot at the Russians, and then sh*t will get real, fast. The Russians don't play at "warning shots" and it will certainly play into their narrative.

The Russians aren't exactly innocents, but they ARE doing exactly what folks who have assets in the region would do, and if they come under fire, they won't hesitate to render that particular section that shots came from to rubble and quietly outgassing corpses that they can then claim did all manner of mischief. I only hope that the Ukraine commanders can keep their people in control enough to NOT start some sh*t, because the Russians WILL end it, and fast. And that will only give them greater claims and greater credibility about their looking to protect their interests.

Seriously, isn't there a TF halloween costume thread you poor, pathetic lowlifes can go to?

It is terrible when folks show a modicum of civility and connection, isn't it? How it must gnaw at a soul...

Yes, making fun of children with Down Syndrome, slobbering over slightly less than totally obese TFers, and how to come down down from a heroin high is definitely the modicum of civility and connection.


I'm not sure what thread you've been reading, but it sounds like a party.
 
2014-03-02 01:09:33 AM

vygramul: rohar: You're right, we haven't gone to war with a country like it.  But we go play with them for months on end every year in the north sea.  We've been playing this game for decades.  We know their equipment, capabilities and maneuvers inside out.

If there was a full on conflict between these two subsurface navys, there would be casualties on both sides.  Sometimes luck beats ability.  But it'd be over in days rather than weeks and the soviet submarines would be a memory.

Our surface ASW capability has gone downhill since the Soviets stopped dogging us everywhere. We no longer have that fine, practiced edge.

Our subsurface guys are pretty darn good, though. You know who else is really good? The Japanese.


surface asw has gotten a lot better in the last 10 years.....orders of magnitude improvements ( with a lot more needs, true)
 
2014-03-02 01:13:40 AM

Nabb1: Lord_Baull: Nabb1: Lord_Baull: Hobodeluxe: ksdanj: ManateeGag: Nabb1: I guess the speech didn't work.

What, exactly, do you want the US to do about it?

Yes, please elaborate Nabb1...

I'm going to guess he wants exactly the opposite of whatever Obama does.

they're reactionary. they don't take positions before Obama does.


Nabb1: ManateeGag: Nabb1: I guess the speech didn't work.

What, exactly, do you want the US to do about it?

I don't know, yet. Did you expect the speech to work?


Lolz. "I don't know what Obama should do, I'm just against everything he's done so far."

That's what you got out of that? Man, you guys are too sensitive about that guy.

Numerous calls for you to explain post. No response. I'm open ears.

I was eating dinner with my wife and kids. Do you really expect me to drop that to meet your demand for me to explain myself? Who the f*ck do you think you are? You think you're so goddamned special that you DEMAND an explanation for every little sarcastic remark that offends your delicate political sensibilities and then feign indignation because they don't immediately drop everything and cater to your whims? Here's my explanation: get over yourself.


Changing the topic. Classy, understated retreat with a hint of rage on the nose. Great with hard cheeses and internet arguments.
 
2014-03-02 01:15:25 AM

Electrify: The people who govern Russia just make you want to give yourself an atomic facepalm. I once read a newspaper article from the late 1950s where the USSR had developed a weapons system which could hit any spot on Earth, and they were not afraid to use it. Remember this was less than 15 years after the world witnessed the most brutal war in history, a war in which the Russians played a significant role to end it.

Now here we are, about 15 days after Russia welcomed the international community to its land for the Winter Olympics, and they are going after the Ukraine?! Like seriously, most of the population is on the European side, you would think that would rub off a bit to bring the nation to its senses.


I don't get the logic. What does it matter if it's just 15 days since? The situation in Ukraine doesn't go by anyone's schedule, and if Putin thinks that Russia should get involved at least in Crimea, and apparently he does, what does it matter how long ago Olympics happened?

As for the sides, the population of at least Crimea is on the side of order, and since they've officially invited Russia, they thing it's in their interests. And they have such right - you know, the right of self-determination, et cetera?
 
2014-03-02 01:18:42 AM

cchris_39: You apologists are starting to sound like Jon Lovitz.

"Why yeah, Putin sent the army in to protect Russian immigrants. That's the ticket. It's a humanitarian mission! And you know what else (low voice)...Ukraine has been secretly part of Russia this whole time. (loud voice) So see, they aren't invading anybody!"

By Monday you will have rationalized another Nobel for Obama and his great vision to liberate Ukraine.


Dude you just contradicted the fk outta yourself.
 
2014-03-02 01:23:40 AM

threadjackistan: Place you bottlecaps on the table!

VS

Winner takes all!


Well, winner at least takes what's left.
 
2014-03-02 01:25:50 AM

ZAZ: Crimea is gone, but we should make sure Putin knows if Kiev is threatened there will be a cruise missile with his name on it.


Seriously?  Do you have ANY farking clue how he'd respond?
 
2014-03-02 01:28:13 AM
Sorry I quoted the dude, y'all, but the contradiction was just too obvious.
 
2014-03-02 01:48:00 AM

LordJiro: Pincy: Why do I have a feeling that if Obama announced tomorrow that he was sending troops into Ukraine to help protect its borders that the Republicans would suddenly be the biggest Pacifists on the face of the earth?

'Why is Obama risking World War 3 over people who WANT to join Russia?! On behalf of the MUSLIM Tartars?! IMPEACH!"


Conversely if he does nothing, the GOP will be calling for his head.

Again, I fail to see why we should be involved at all.
 
2014-03-02 02:47:54 AM

Tommy Moo: 100 Watt Walrus: It's complicated.

Ukrainian presidential election, 2010
[i.imgur.com image 850x478]

If cooler heads may prevail, cutting the country in half seems like a very sensible choice. Won't everyone be happy then? Or is the west the major economic producer, and therefore a target for Russia to maintain control over?


ok you cut the country in half.  one half is pro russian and the other is well.....pro eu, probably more pro eu than ever before.  putin is not going to be happy with that, the more pro eu part.  he then starts slowly expanding.  ukraine becomes something akin to east/west germany.

it cant be all about the black sea fleet.  putin will never accept ukraine turning more towards the eu.  outside of sending aid to ukraine and diplomatic actions, what could be done militarily?

doubtful we would send us troops there.  probably support the Ukrainian armed forces but that is about it.
 
2014-03-02 03:11:01 AM

echomike23: putin will never accept ukraine turning more towards the eu.


Putin won't have a choice.

If he takes Eastern Ukraine, Western Ukraine will be fast tracked for EU and NATO admission, with the full treaty protection those organizations provide.

Putin's best move now would be to negotiate greater autonomy in eastern Ukraine, though It may be getting too late for that.

Ukraine is putting a few hundred thousand men in the field.  With armies in the field, anything can happen.  If it gets to shooting, the west will supply Western Ukraine and the Russians will have a hell of a fight on their hands.
 
2014-03-02 03:24:42 AM

ksdanj: ManateeGag: Nabb1: I guess the speech didn't work.

What, exactly, do you want the US to do about it?

Yes, please elaborate Nabb1...


Pretty simple....
Give a speech that works.

No red lines that aren't going to be enforced, please.
 
2014-03-02 03:44:38 AM

gnadfly: No red lines that aren't going to be enforced, please.


What red line did Obama draw that isn't going to be enforced?

Obama did not say Russia was risking US military retaliation.   He said Russia would "face costs".

How is that a red line that isn't going to be enforced?
 
2014-03-02 03:56:32 AM

RandomRandom: echomike23: putin will never accept ukraine turning more towards the eu.

Putin won't have a choice.

If he takes Eastern Ukraine, Western Ukraine will be fast tracked for EU and NATO admission, with the full treaty protection those organizations provide.

Putin's best move now would be to negotiate greater autonomy in eastern Ukraine, though It may be getting too late for that.

Ukraine is putting a few hundred thousand men in the field.  With armies in the field, anything can happen.  If it gets to shooting, the west will supply Western Ukraine and the Russians will have a hell of a fight on their hands.


it would be warsaw pact doctrine vs warsaw pact doctrine as well as equipment.  btr80's against btr 80's.  although the russians would have a much larger force.
 
2014-03-02 04:06:35 AM

echomike23: it would be warsaw pact doctrine vs warsaw pact doctrine as well as equipment. btr80's against btr 80's. although the russians would have a much larger force.


Were Russia to try moving west, Ukraine would have defenders advantage, plus real time intelligence from western reconnaissance.

Ukraine would also receive aid from the west, supplies, probably weapons including the latest anti-aircraft.  Russia would have a hard time maintaining air superiority.  Ukraine has up to 1 million trained reservists.  The Russians could field more, but moving and supplying them would be a real struggle.

If the Russians move west, Ukraine would have a reasonable shot of pushing them out, maybe even routing them.
 
2014-03-02 04:29:26 AM

RandomRandom: echomike23: it would be warsaw pact doctrine vs warsaw pact doctrine as well as equipment. btr80's against btr 80's. although the russians would have a much larger force.

Were Russia to try moving west, Ukraine would have defenders advantage, plus real time intelligence from western reconnaissance.

Ukraine would also receive aid from the west, supplies, probably weapons including the latest anti-aircraft.  Russia would have a hard time maintaining air superiority.  Ukraine has up to 1 million trained reservists.  The Russians could field more, but moving and supplying them would be a real struggle.

If the Russians move west, Ukraine would have a reasonable shot of pushing them out, maybe even routing them.


the advantage i see that the russians have is the networks that the fsb have layed out in the crimea.  the russians moved extremely fast to take the airport in simerfopol in a similar style to the afghan invasion by securing the airports as civilian disguised aircraft carrying soviet paratroopers.

i believed what happened is that the fsb took some pro russia militias, told them to storm the government buildings and hold them.  then the army took...let say a batalion of russian paratroops and had them tear off their patches, names and ranks from their uniforms,  then sent them to the simerfopol airport to secure it and pave the way for large aircraft with more troops to land and take more territory.  you have the pro russia groups ask for help from russia and voila, instant takeover before the international community could respond.

from the videos i have seen there were no tanks or artillery pieces (i could be wrong) mostly soldiers wearing russian camo with russian equipment and standard ak's (paratroopers are issued folding stock models to better fit with their jump equipment)  along btr 80's and trucks.

global.fncstatic.com

i.telegraph.co.uk
 
2014-03-02 04:33:36 AM
i forgot to post this for reference
en.ria.ru
 
2014-03-02 05:08:54 AM

echomike23: the advantage i see that the russians have is the networks that the fsb have layed out in the crimea.


Crimea is a pro-Russia, Russian speaking region.  There are also multiple Russian military bases there.  It's not surprising the Russians had the run of the place.

The FSB would not have that advantage in western Ukraine.  If the Russians move west, they'll be opposed.
 
2014-03-02 05:15:45 AM

RandomRandom: echomike23: the advantage i see that the russians have is the networks that the fsb have layed out in the crimea.

Crimea is a pro-Russia, Russian speaking region.  There are also multiple Russian military bases there.  It's not surprising the Russians had the run of the place.

The FSB would not have that advantage in western Ukraine.  If the Russians move west, they'll be opposed.


absolutely they would be opposed.  not without syria 2: electric boogalo breaking out.
 
2014-03-02 06:23:28 AM
Not our problem.
 
2014-03-02 06:26:59 AM

iron_city_ap: LordJiro: You mean like the mostly-Russian populace of Crimea asked them to?

And really, you're surprised that the Russians want to make sure they don't lose their main port on the Black Sea?

I'm no fan of Pooty-Poot, but this is not nearly as big an issue as people are whining about.

As long as they respect the sovereignty of the region, I can't complain. If they try to claim it as Russian soil, then I have an issue.


I shall pass along your concerns to Putin.

No one gives a fark what you have a issue with..
 
2014-03-02 06:33:47 AM
 
2014-03-02 08:53:46 AM

iq_in_binary: vygramul: iq_in_binary: You didn't actually read my post then. You're right, they did decide to get something going in the subsurface fleet.

The result is 2 SSBNs capable of getting south of the equator in the Pacific, and 1 in the Atlantic. That's it.

Everything else is either out of the water, under repair, or dragging on the sea floor unless it has a tug boat. Their subsurface fleet isn't world class, it's outclassed by France.

You're substantially under-counting. They decommed (read: allowed to rust into oblivion) or sold off most of what they had, but you're off by an order of magnitude for their nuclear attack subs in the Northern Fleet. And the Severodvinsk is a huge leap forward for them as far as design goes.

And they still have half a dozen Kilos in their Pacific Fleet.

All of which have to go over IUSS because they can't get south of the Equator. We'd see them coming.

My point still stands.


And despite the magical infallibility of IUSS, that didn't stop the first sensor to detect the Chinese diesel boat that surfaced near Kitty Hawk from being the Mk-1 eyeball.

But as everyone knows, the Chinese diesel boats are way more quiet than anything the Russians have.
 
2014-03-02 08:57:16 AM

johnny_vegas: vygramul: rohar: You're right, we haven't gone to war with a country like it.  But we go play with them for months on end every year in the north sea.  We've been playing this game for decades.  We know their equipment, capabilities and maneuvers inside out.

If there was a full on conflict between these two subsurface navys, there would be casualties on both sides.  Sometimes luck beats ability.  But it'd be over in days rather than weeks and the soviet submarines would be a memory.

Our surface ASW capability has gone downhill since the Soviets stopped dogging us everywhere. We no longer have that fine, practiced edge.

Our subsurface guys are pretty darn good, though. You know who else is really good? The Japanese.

surface asw has gotten a lot better in the last 10 years.....orders of magnitude improvements ( with a lot more needs, true)


You must have been involved in different USWEXes than I was.
 
2014-03-02 11:14:52 AM
I'm torn. They're kinda white so I should probably care. But they were the bad guys in a lot of movies growing up. And they have a weird alphabet.

So can someone tell me how I should feel about this as a generally disinterested American?

/kthxby
 
ecl
2014-03-02 12:29:28 PM

Serious Post on Serious Thread: I'm torn. They're kinda white so I should probably care. But they were the bad guys in a lot of movies growing up. And they have a weird alphabet.

So can someone tell me how I should feel about this as a generally disinterested American?

/kthxby


Putin wants to outlaw gays and then pals around with them on camera.  America hates Flip-Floppers.
 
2014-03-02 12:40:06 PM

ecl: Serious Post on Serious Thread: I'm torn. They're kinda white so I should probably care. But they were the bad guys in a lot of movies growing up. And they have a weird alphabet.

So can someone tell me how I should feel about this as a generally disinterested American?

/kthxby

Putin wants to outlaw gays and then pals around with them on camera.  America hates Flip-Floppers.


I kinda hate flip-flops too. Maybe on the beach. Or if it's too warm for slippers.

So I'm still in a quandary.
 
2014-03-02 12:44:02 PM

Serious Post on Serious Thread: ecl: Serious Post on Serious Thread: I'm torn. They're kinda white so I should probably care. But they were the bad guys in a lot of movies growing up. And they have a weird alphabet.

So can someone tell me how I should feel about this as a generally disinterested American?

/kthxby

Putin wants to outlaw gays and then pals around with them on camera.  America hates Flip-Floppers.

I kinda hate flip-flops too. Maybe on the beach. Or if it's too warm for slippers.

So I'm still in a quandary.


i799.photobucket.com
 
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