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(Special Broadcasting Service)   Ukraine: Hey there NATO. Say, you guys remember that wacky treaty we signed in 1994 where you promised to defend us if we were attacked in exchange for us giving up our nukes? Yeah, funny thing, never thought we actually need that, but   (sbs.com.au) divider line 291
    More: Scary, NATO, Ukraine, interim leader, Viktor Yanukovych, Russian forces  
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15715 clicks; posted to Main » on 28 Feb 2014 at 1:50 PM (24 weeks ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2014-02-28 03:14:12 PM

netcentric: youmightberight: "... The brits could jump in with some bombers and their pocket carriers would be a welcome addition to naval forces in the area."

Thier what ?

  Brits....  carriers ?


Invincible-class aircraft carriers.
 
2014-02-28 03:15:27 PM
We would be taking this treaty a lot more seriously if this was happening on the White Sea. Typical.
 
2014-02-28 03:16:26 PM

JK47: youmightberight: 3rd ACR and 1st armored could move in and really fark some things up - also the German tankers are VERY good - we could run 24hr drone based warfare on the Russians in theater from air bases in Germany. The brits could jump in with some bombers and their pocket carriers would be a welcome addition to naval forces in the area.


The 3rd is now the 3rd Cavalry Regiment, equipped with Strykers, and located at Fort Hood.  Likewise the 1st Armored is now garrisoned at Fort Bliss.  Both of the heavy brigades in Germany (the 170th and 172nd) were drawn down over the last couple years.  We have one airborne and one stryker brigade in Germany, that's it.

As for the German Army, they're down to 60,000 men with five armored brigades and in the near future they'll only be operating 225 Leopard 2's.

As for the Royal Navy, all three of the Invincible Class carriers were mothballed years ago and their Harrier aircraft were sold off.


Nothing is as sad as the Royal Canadian Navy with 8,500 regulars.  I do think we need to cut back troop numbers and it's time the rest of the free world to start subsidizing us.
 
2014-02-28 03:16:54 PM

Debeo Summa Credo: jshine: Alien Robot: Did it "smack of appeasement" when Czechoslovakia was split up?

That's pretty much the prototypical example of appeasement, yes.

Zombie Chamberlain was involved in the post soviet split of the Czech Republic and Slovakia?!? Woah.



Czechoslovakia had been "split up" before that.  Zombie Chamberlain (well, live-Chamberlain at the time) was involved in negotiating the Munich Agreement of 1938 which also split up Czechoslovakia & precipitated the "peace for our time" quote.

Your sentence was ambiguous as to which split-up you meant, and one of them -- the one I referenced -- is basically the prototypical example of failed appeasement.
 
2014-02-28 03:17:17 PM

Infernalist: Keith Dudemeister: From the Guardian:

"Political leaders moved fast in Moscow with the parliament rapidly introducing a law that would make it easier for new territories to be added to Russia's existing borders, a move that seemed directly linked to events in Crimea. The bill would allow for regions to join Russia by referendum if its host country does not have a "legitimate government". "If as the result of a referendum, Crimea appeals to Russia with a desire to join us, we should have the legal mechanisms to answer," said MP Elena Mizulina."

Probably just a coincidence that they voted on this just now, right?

They're showing their hand.  They're not willing to go full 'invasion' on Ukraine, so they're going to use a political method to absorb Crimea.


It's fascinating. I mean, psychotically dangerous in the sense that it could trigger WW III, but fascinating nonetheless. Putin is gambling that Europe and Amurica have no appetite for an actual war, and that the response from the west will be a bunch of blustery talk from diplomats and maybe some trade sanctions of some kind. The Russian response will be jerking off motions on a national level. Like Putin gives a fark about sanctions.
 
2014-02-28 03:17:58 PM
Whynare the St Barry Fanbois wanting war with Russia? War with Russia will not end well. In fact if the US and Russia go at it I,'m gonna try and make it to the other hemisphere before the nuclear fallout is in the air.
 
2014-02-28 03:18:03 PM

youmightberight: netcentric: youmightberight: "... The brits could jump in with some bombers and their pocket carriers would be a welcome addition to naval forces in the area."

Thier what ?

  Brits....  carriers ?

Invincible-class aircraft carriers.


The 2 invicibles are now Amphibious assault ships.   The Brits sold all the Harriers years ago.

If you want to wait for the Brits to have a 'carrier'.... you need to give them about 6 years to complete the welding and painting.
 
2014-02-28 03:18:22 PM

mbillips: tinyarena: [media.washtimes.com image 630x365]
Oh please, is this a joke picture? It's hard to get too worked up about this.
Those APCs were scary, in 1965.
These days we could take them out with drones. I guess we have to take them seriously, but it hard.

Those are BTR-80s, which are the equivalent of American Strykers. Not obsolete at all. Better than the Bradley in some ways. Drones can take out most tanks; that's what the Hellfire missile was originally designed for.


This plus eleventy...

BTR are like everyother APC... glorified offroad schoolbuses... Same for the Ural truck in the back... It's not dissuasive weapons... It's not even weapons per se... It's cool-ish offroaders that can be repared with tractor parts... Since they where made with farming equipment parts... But they get the job done...
 
2014-02-28 03:19:13 PM

Magorn:   In 1879 Bismarck concluded the Dual Alliance, a mutual defense pact with Austria-Hungary. He expanded this agreement in 1882 to include Italy, forming the Triple Alliance.
Bismarck realized that an alliance between France and Russia would be a fundamental threat to German security because in the event of war with either power Germany would be forced to fight on two fronts. Bismarck arranged the Emperors' Alliance (1881) and the Reinsurance Treaty (1887) with Russia, agreements that guaranteed Russian neutrality in the event of a Franco-German conflict.

To offset the threat of the Triple Alliance, France and Russia formed their own Dual Alliance in 1894. France also improved relations with Great Britain by entering into an informal understanding with the British known as the Entente Cordiale (1904). This was expanded into the Triple Entente in 1907 with the inclusion of Russia.


You left out the part about the Double Cross.

static.guim.co.uk
 
2014-02-28 03:19:44 PM

JK47: youmightberight: 3rd ACR and 1st armored could move in and really fark some things up - also the German tankers are VERY good - we could run 24hr drone based warfare on the Russians in theater from air bases in Germany. The brits could jump in with some bombers and their pocket carriers would be a welcome addition to naval forces in the area.


The 3rd is now the 3rd Cavalry Regiment, equipped with Strykers, and located at Fort Hood.  Likewise the 1st Armored is now garrisoned at Fort Bliss.  Both of the heavy brigades in Germany (the 170th and 172nd) were drawn down over the last couple years.  We have one airborne and one stryker brigade in Germany, that's it.

As for the German Army, they're down to 60,000 men with five armored brigades and in the near future they'll only be operating 225 Leopard 2's.

As for the Royal Navy, all three of the Invincible Class carriers were mothballed years ago and their Harrier aircraft were sold off.


You forgot about France and Turkey
 
2014-02-28 03:20:56 PM

Rembrant_Q_Einstein: You keep saying that but you need to look at a map.  Russia has plenty of ports on the Black Sea.  Sochi, for one



It's not even the only base used by the Black Sea Fleet.  They're building a replacement for Sevastopol in Novorossiysk for one.
 
2014-02-28 03:21:45 PM
Ukraine is not part of NATO.

Russia is not part of NATO.

Britain and the United States are part of NATO but the pact Ukraine signed with Britain, the U.S., and Russia has nothing to do with NATO.
 
2014-02-28 03:22:07 PM

ShadowKamui: Crazy Lee: LewDux: Infernalist: This would never happen because there's simply too much at stake for Russia to lose the Crimea.  Lose that, they lose their access to their warm water ports and navy.

You know that they had access to all of that through all those 20+ years of Ukrainian independence, right?

Not to mention that Khrushchev `gifted' the Crimea to Ukraine in 1954.

Tatars are pi*sed, but this is just as internecine BS as West allows it to be (and Europe loves that Russian Gas).

He gifted it to them because Crimea has 0 drinkable water w/o access to Ukraine.  Its about as dumb as Vegas trying to split from Nevada w/o Lake Mead


And it would be fair to say he was just redrawing lines inside the Soviet sandbox.  But the history adds to the complexion of the current imbroglio.  Putin's holding the weaker hand and, primarily for internal consumption, he'll beat his muscled chest and pound his fists against the ground.  Short of rolling armor into Kiev and reinstating Yanukovych, his plays are on the margins.

Europe is, in large part, ever more dependent on Russian gas (strategically a very poor move by Europe - at least France has its reactor fleet),  I suspect the fab foam will settle out, Putin & the IMF will work some flourish to dump a few more billions down a slightly less ratty hole and everyone will go back to aspiring to, or feathering their particular oligarchies & plutocracies.

/cynically optimistic
 
2014-02-28 03:22:20 PM

JK47: youmightberight: 3rd ACR and 1st armored could move in and really fark some things up - also the German tankers are VERY good - we could run 24hr drone based warfare on the Russians in theater from air bases in Germany. The brits could jump in with some bombers and their pocket carriers would be a welcome addition to naval forces in the area.


The 3rd is now the 3rd Cavalry Regiment, equipped with Strykers, and located at Fort Hood.  Likewise the 1st Armored is now garrisoned at Fort Bliss.  Both of the heavy brigades in Germany (the 170th and 172nd) were drawn down over the last couple years.  We have one airborne and one stryker brigade in Germany, that's it.

As for the German Army, they're down to 60,000 men with five armored brigades and in the near future they'll only be operating 225 Leopard 2's.

As for the Royal Navy, all three of the Invincible Class carriers were mothballed years ago and their Harrier aircraft were sold off.


Well, farkme... I thought the brits held off on mothballing the Invincible-class carriers till the Elizabeth class hits (2018 time frame?) as for 3rd ACR looks like it is still kicking as a heavy cav unit and with all the new goodies we have. From Global Security (most recent history)

"The Regiment arrived at Fort Hood with almost no equipment. The primary combat systems, the M1 Abrams and M3 Bradleys, had been left in Kuwait when the Regiment was redeploying. Thus began an intensive effort to outfit 3rd Armored Cavalry Regiment with all of the newest gear the Army had to offer. Starting in September, 2nd Squadron fielded the first M1A2 SEP Version 2 tanks. In October 2006, Sabre Squadron also received the Regiment's first M3A3 Block 2 Cavalry Fighting Vehicles.
In March 2007, the Regiment was fully equipped with its 123 tanks and 125 Bradleys. In addition to these critical platforms, 4th Squadron had been completely outfitted with the latest AH-64D Apache Longbow attack helicopters, with its 3 troops replacing the previous 3 Troops of OH-58D Kiowa Warriors. The Regiment subsequently completed the fielding and certification of its indirect fire assets, both M109A6 Paladin and M1064A3 120mm mortar systems. The Regiment was as lethal as ever before, ready to tackle the missions ahead."
 
2014-02-28 03:23:12 PM

CygnusDarius: Might as well play this in the streets.

[upload.wikimedia.org image 256x290]

/This game nearly killed my chances to go to college


I was addicted to this for the longest time.  Against the computer you just had to hold off the first couple of waves and then your ok.  The real fun was playing against other people.
 
2014-02-28 03:24:13 PM
Good luck with that.

The Russians are going to welcome new/old territories back into the fold, if the ask. They will defend their new citizens. Same as it ever was. Look at Georgia and the Ossetian situation as your go to. In Ossetia, they defended folks with dual citizenship from tanks fielded against ground forces with no armor. It ended fair swift after that. The Russians will follow the law, because they want no challenges. They will paint the Ukraine as the aggressors, and point to the petition for membership if it's put forward. And they'll have law on their side. If they happened to bring the situation to a head, that's diplomacy at work--which is the art of saying "nice doggie" until you get a big enough stick in hand...
 
2014-02-28 03:24:14 PM

uber humper: Nothing is as sad as the Royal Canadian Navy with 8,500 regulars.  I do think we need to cut back troop numbers and it's time the rest of the free world to start subsidizing us.



I dunno...I think the Irish Army is a bit worse off...they're basically selling real estate to stay afloat.
 
2014-02-28 03:24:24 PM
Travel warning.

LINK
 
2014-02-28 03:24:27 PM

Oldiron_79: Whynare the St Barry Fanbois wanting war with Russia? War with Russia will not end well. In fact if the US and Russia go at it I,'m gonna try and make it to the other hemisphere before the nuclear fallout is in the air.


This is what happens when you don't bomb a Syrian airfield to stop Assad from gassing his own people.  The rest of the world sees your weak knees. **Looking at you Barry
 
2014-02-28 03:24:41 PM

Debeo Summa Credo: Magorn: fireclown: What would be the downside be if the nation simply split?  The southeastern Ukranians pretty much consider themselves Russian anyway.  Is there a national resources reason, a la Iraq, that they couldn't just splinter off?  Apart from all the tradgedy of divided families and the death of the velvet revolution and all that.

Take a look at this map of Ukraine

You see that peninsula at the bottom?  That's Crimea.  If it breaks away from Ukraine, it will, de acto or de jure become part of Russia.   If that happens Russia gets a bottleneck that effectively allow it to control access to the Black Sea for nearly Half of Ukraine land mass and many of its major cities.   It would make Ukraine itself a satellite of Russia just as surely as if it still had an SSR after its name

They would still have a port on the black sea, with similar access as Romania and Bulgaria, and access to the west via NATO and EU members Poland and Slovakia and Hungary.


They would, but Russia could effectively Starve out, or just wreck the economy of half of Ukraine anytime it wanted to show its displeasure.   If they  had control of the city of Kerch,  the can do a blockade and cut  off the Black Sea access for several major Ukrainian cities and would force them to go overland to import and export which would be ruinously expensive
 
2014-02-28 03:26:13 PM

JK47: uber humper: Nothing is as sad as the Royal Canadian Navy with 8,500 regulars.  I do think we need to cut back troop numbers and it's time the rest of the free world to start subsidizing us.


I dunno...I think the Irish Army is a bit worse off...they're basically selling real estate to stay afloat.


Yea, They're tiny.  Population of Ireland is smaller (by 25%) than the Dallas/Fort Worth Metro.
 
2014-02-28 03:26:35 PM

youmightberight: Well, farkme... I thought the brits held off on mothballing the Invincible-class carriers till the Elizabeth class hits (2018 time frame?) as for 3rd ACR looks like it is still kicking as a heavy cav unit and with all the new goodies we have. From Global Security (most recent history)

"The Regiment arrived at Fort Hood with almost no equipment. The primary combat systems, the M1 Abrams and M3 Bradleys, had been left in Kuwait when the Regiment was redeploying. Thus began an intensive effort to outfit 3rd Armored Cavalry Regiment with all of the newest gear the Army had to offer. Starting in September, 2nd Squadron fielded the first M1A2 SEP Version 2 tanks. In October 2006, Sabre Squadron also received the Regiment's first M3A3 Block 2 Cavalry Fighting Vehicles.
In March 2007, the Regiment was fully equipped with its 123 tanks and 125 Bradleys. In addition to these critical platforms, 4th Squadron had been completely outfitted with the latest AH-64D Apache Longbow attack helicopters, with its 3 troops replacing the previous 3 Troops of OH-58D Kiowa Warriors. The Regiment subsequently completed the fielding and certification of its indirect fire assets, both M109A6 Paladin and M1064A3 120mm mortar systems. The Regiment was as lethal as ever before, ready to tackle the missions ahead."



They completed their conversion in 2012 (link)
 
2014-02-28 03:27:27 PM

Voiceofreason01: eh, I may have jumped the gun. It looks like it's just the one Washington Post article and the Russians are saying they're just moving forces in to secure their naval base.


No prob.  Thanks for the link.  Glad it's just APCs
 
2014-02-28 03:27:34 PM

p4p3rm4t3: Travel warning.

LINK


All that means is that its the right time to get a good deal! Just bring cash -- and a piece.
 
2014-02-28 03:29:27 PM

dukeblue219: Born_Again_Bavarian: http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2014/feb/28/russia-invades-crime a- sends-armored-personnel-carr/

It's the Washington Times. They're not a legitimate source for anything. From all the other sources out there (starting with BBC) it looks like there may be a few armored personnel carriers on the roads to and from the naval base, but nothing that warrants a "they're sending in the tanks" kind of headline.

//Putin's not stupid. He's not going to send the whole damn army rolling into Ukraine. Just gradually take control of the region step by step such that there's no one particularly overt act that the west can use to justify force.


Salami tactics

www.wearysloth.com

He warned you about them.
\\Hot like the exhaust of an ss-18
 
2014-02-28 03:30:08 PM

uber humper: p4p3rm4t3: Travel warning.

LINK

All that means is that its the right time to get a good deal! Just bring cash -- and a piece.


Merc vacation spot?.
 
2014-02-28 03:30:43 PM

uber humper: This is what happens when you don't bomb a Syrian airfield to stop Assad from gassing his own people.


The fark are you babbling about?
 
2014-02-28 03:32:24 PM

generallyso: uber humper: This is what happens when you don't bomb a Syrian airfield to stop Assad from gassing his own people.

The fark are you babbling about?


It's not deep.
 
2014-02-28 03:32:50 PM
 
2014-02-28 03:33:07 PM

Magorn: They would, but Russia could effectively Starve out, or just wreck the economy of half of Ukraine anytime it wanted to show its displeasure.   If they  had control of the city of Kerch,  the can do a blockade and cut  off the Black Sea access for several major Ukrainian cities and would force them to go overland to import and export which would be ruinously expensive



From what I've found roughly 2/3rds of the port traffic for the Ukraine goes through three ports (Odessa, Illichivsk, Yuzhny) in the western portion of the country (unaffected by losing access to the Sea of Azov).

On the other hand losing Kerch would mean the Ukraine loses it's major shipbuilding center.
 
2014-02-28 03:33:16 PM
France is tied up in Central Africa
UK is... well, the UK.   They aren't going to do anything if they can't ride the US's coattails.
US is war weary and broke.


Russia...   I believe you could take that as a green light.
 
2014-02-28 03:38:11 PM

LewDux: The Beatings Will Continue Until Morale Improves: Let's ask Georgia how that worked out.

Georgia had nukes?


No, something scarier...Newt.
 
2014-02-28 03:43:25 PM

CygnusDarius: uber humper: p4p3rm4t3: Travel warning.

LINK

All that means is that its the right time to get a good deal! Just bring cash -- and a piece.

Merc vacation spot?.


Or a banker.  Ukraine just put capital controls down on currency conversion: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-02-28/ukraine-imposes-capital-cont r ols-limits-foreign-currency-withdrawals

In other news, mail order wives are up to 50% off
 
2014-02-28 03:46:49 PM

Rembrant_Q_Einstein: Infernalist: LewDux: Infernalist: This would never happen because there's simply too much at stake for Russia to lose the Crimea.  Lose that, they lose their access to their warm water ports and navy.

You know that they had access to all of that through all those 20+ years of Ukrainian independence, right?

Of course, but most of that 20 years was spent with a pro-Russian government in Russia's back pocket and I don't know if you've noticed or not, but this new Ukrainian government is pretty much 'fark the Russians and the bears they rode in on.'

I'm not saying that the Ukrainian government will revoke Russia's lease on those port facilities, but if you're Putin do you 'really' want to take the chance of losing access to your only warm water ports?


You keep saying that but you need to look at a map.  Russia has plenty of ports on the Black Sea.  Sochi, for one


He doesn't have a clue what he's talking about.  Russia's interest in Ukraine has absolutely zero to do with "warm water ports".  They already have warm water ports on the black sea. The little additional control of Crimea (if they were to absorb that region) adds almost no strategic value.

Here's why Russia is so interested in what is going on:
www.zerohedge.com

Factor in that Oil is Russia's #1 money maker (it accounts for >50% of their revenue).  50 farking percent. That's huuuuge.
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/01/02/uk-russia-oil-idUKBREA010GA 20 140102

If they lose control of their access to the EU, they could be in serious trouble.
 
2014-02-28 03:47:21 PM

PsiChick: Tomahawk513: PsiChick: Hey, Putin. Maybe we need to stand down now?

/I have very little sympathy for the aggressor, and promising to defend them means we need to act on that promise.
//Hopefully there's a way to solve this behind the scenes before war starts, but now we actually  need to intervene, and this phrase will never again be uttered by myself in this context.

It'd be really cool if, in the event of civil war, the UN could come in and stabilize the situation.  Then, a Swiss elections team could come in, administer a democratic election for a temporary government, and then everyone packs up and goes home.  No disputing the results (democracy, and all that).  No accusations of bias (Switzerland is a paragon of neutrality).  And very little bloodshed.

That would be a  really awesome solution.


Someone ( Ben Bova maybe) wrote about the idea of the UN getting serious about " Warfare Suppression". I think it was about 30 years ago.

/Pretty clear no one important took it seriously
 
2014-02-28 03:50:19 PM

netcentric: France is tied up in Central Africa
UK is... well, the UK.   They aren't going to do anything if they can't ride the US's coattails.
US is war weary and broke.


Russia...   I believe you could take that as a green light.


Never before has a county been war weary from losing 5, 000 men like we did in Iraq.  In WWI France lost almost and entire generation of men (70-75% of their men mobilized were casualities). That's why they didn't have the will or manpower to fight WWII. That weary.  We lose 5k, over 10 years, and we're weary. We not gonna fight Russia. We're not going to standup to anyone.
i45.photobucket.com
Sorry, UA, you're on your own
 
2014-02-28 03:55:00 PM

fireclown: Marcellinus: fireclown: MylesHeartVodak: And somebody shut down all of our A-10s because we were never going to need tankbusters again.

Hagerstown Maryland checking in: You want more A-10s, we'll be happy to start building 'em again.   Just show up at Town Hall with a purchase order.

Sorry, but you've been diverted to building crappy outlet malls.

It's not like we're HAPPY about that.


Cumberland Maryland checking in: We have nothing to offer...
 
2014-02-28 04:00:34 PM

uber humper: netcentric: France is tied up in Central Africa
UK is... well, the UK.   They aren't going to do anything if they can't ride the US's coattails.
US is war weary and broke.


Russia...   I believe you could take that as a green light.

Never before has a county been war weary from losing 5, 000 men like we did in Iraq.  In WWI France lost almost and entire generation of men (70-75% of their men mobilized were casualities). That's why they didn't have the will or manpower to fight WWII. That weary.  We lose 5k, over 10 years, and we're weary. We not gonna fight Russia. We're not going to standup to anyone.
[i45.photobucket.com image 187x140]
Sorry, UA, you're on your own


The war weariness can come from the reasons for war. 5000 dying for B.S. reasons is vastly different from a nation sacrificing a generation to defend itself.
 
2014-02-28 04:00:35 PM

wm734: fireclown: Marcellinus: fireclown: MylesHeartVodak: And somebody shut down all of our A-10s because we were never going to need tankbusters again.

Hagerstown Maryland checking in: You want more A-10s, we'll be happy to start building 'em again.   Just show up at Town Hall with a purchase order.

Sorry, but you've been diverted to building crappy outlet malls.

It's not like we're HAPPY about that.

Cumberland Maryland checking in: We have nothing to offer...


Silver Spring here - You can have one unfinished transit center.  We give you good deal.
 
2014-02-28 04:01:26 PM

nickerj1: Rembrant_Q_Einstein: Infernalist: LewDux: Infernalist: This would never happen because there's simply too much at stake for Russia to lose the Crimea.  Lose that, they lose their access to their warm water ports and navy.

You know that they had access to all of that through all those 20+ years of Ukrainian independence, right?

Of course, but most of that 20 years was spent with a pro-Russian government in Russia's back pocket and I don't know if you've noticed or not, but this new Ukrainian government is pretty much 'fark the Russians and the bears they rode in on.'

I'm not saying that the Ukrainian government will revoke Russia's lease on those port facilities, but if you're Putin do you 'really' want to take the chance of losing access to your only warm water ports?


You keep saying that but you need to look at a map.  Russia has plenty of ports on the Black Sea.  Sochi, for one

He doesn't have a clue what he's talking about.  Russia's interest in Ukraine has absolutely zero to do with "warm water ports".  They already have warm water ports on the black sea. The little additional control of Crimea (if they were to absorb that region) adds almost no strategic value.

Here's why Russia is so interested in what is going on:


Factor in that Oil is Russia's #1 money maker (it accounts for >50% of their revenue).  50 farking percent. That's huuuuge.
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/01/02/uk-russia-oil-idUKBREA010GA 20 140102

If they lose control of their access to the EU, they could be in serious trouble.


If ukraine joins EU they still have pipeline to EU... direct access.
 
2014-02-28 04:03:22 PM

uber humper: Oldiron_79: Whynare the St Barry Fanbois wanting war with Russia? War with Russia will not end well. In fact if the US and Russia go at it I,'m gonna try and make it to the other hemisphere before the nuclear fallout is in the air.

This is what happens when you don't bomb a Syrian airfield to stop Assad from gassing his own people.  The rest of the world sees your weak knees. **Looking at you Barry


except it is more than likely according to Seymour Hersh that the gas attack was actually carried out by the rebels.

http://www.lrb.co.uk/v35/n24/seymour-m-hersh/whose-sarin

So if you have a bone to pick with "Barry" it is for making up BS. Not going in to Syria was the correct course of action.
 
2014-02-28 04:07:13 PM

goatan: uber humper: netcentric: France is tied up in Central Africa
UK is... well, the UK.   They aren't going to do anything if they can't ride the US's coattails.
US is war weary and broke.


Russia...   I believe you could take that as a green light.

Never before has a county been war weary from losing 5, 000 men like we did in Iraq.  In WWI France lost almost and entire generation of men (70-75% of their men mobilized were casualities). That's why they didn't have the will or manpower to fight WWII. That weary.  We lose 5k, over 10 years, and we're weary. We not gonna fight Russia. We're not going to standup to anyone.
[i45.photobucket.com image 187x140]
Sorry, UA, you're on your own

The war weariness can come from the reasons for war. 5000 dying for B.S. reasons is vastly different from a nation sacrificing a generation to defend itself.


You are right.  I was giving an extreme example.  But it has more to do with a 24/7 news cycle. Very, very few people were affected by Iraq or Afghanistan. They only know of it from the media.

We still won't help Ukraine and Russia won't act as if we would. Other countries now know we won't get involved. I think we're neutered.
 
2014-02-28 04:09:56 PM

tinfoil-hat maggie: Well I'm sure the UK will be into going into Crimea again.


They won the last time they went.
 
2014-02-28 04:13:17 PM

CygnusDarius: Might as well play this in the streets.



/This game nearly killed my chances to go to college


I had a mod for that game where I could change the weapons units had. Arming the choppers with flame throwers was fun. Arming regular infantry with chain guns was great too, especially Ina tech level one battle.
 
2014-02-28 04:14:06 PM

Infernalist: Make no mistake about it, no one in the West wants to get involved in this mess.


Of course we do.  We don't want to get involved militarily, but we already are involved.

/oh, and F*ck the EU.
 
2014-02-28 04:14:55 PM

netcentric: France is tied up in Central Africa
UK is... well, the UK.   They aren't going to do anything if they can't ride the US's coattails.
US is war weary and broke.


Russia...   I believe you could take that as a green light.


Russia's army is down to about 700,000, most of whom are virtually useless conscripts, and most of the non-craptastic units are really aimed at Georgia and Chechnya. If Ukraine has any kind of fighting force, Russia could find itself really rolling the dice on this becoming an expensive embarrassment with the potential to be so economically damaging to them that it would make the Iraq War look like it was in the bargain bin.

I don't put anything past the Russians, but they're easily as capable to stumbling into another Vietnam Afghanistan 1980 Afghanistan 2002.
 
2014-02-28 04:14:58 PM

nickerj1: Rembrant_Q_Einstein: Infernalist: LewDux: Infernalist: This would never happen because there's simply too much at stake for Russia to lose the Crimea.  Lose that, they lose their access to their warm water ports and navy.

You know that they had access to all of that through all those 20+ years of Ukrainian independence, right?

Of course, but most of that 20 years was spent with a pro-Russian government in Russia's back pocket and I don't know if you've noticed or not, but this new Ukrainian government is pretty much 'fark the Russians and the bears they rode in on.'

I'm not saying that the Ukrainian government will revoke Russia's lease on those port facilities, but if you're Putin do you 'really' want to take the chance of losing access to your only warm water ports?


You keep saying that but you need to look at a map.  Russia has plenty of ports on the Black Sea.  Sochi, for one

He doesn't have a clue what he's talking about.  Russia's interest in Ukraine has absolutely zero to do with "warm water ports".  They already have warm water ports on the black sea. The little additional control of Crimea (if they were to absorb that region) adds almost no strategic value.

Here's why Russia is so interested in what is going on:
[www.zerohedge.com image 600x545]

Factor in that Oil is Russia's #1 money maker (it accounts for >50% of their revenue).  50 farking percent. That's huuuuge.
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/01/02/uk-russia-oil-idUKBREA010GA 20 140102

If they lose control of their access to the EU, they could be in serious trouble.


So if I am president of the Ukraine at this point I think I pull  a "Paul Atriedes" and inform Putin that thousands of blocks of C-4 have been randomly places on sections of his pipelines all over the Ukraine.  So long as no mysterious separatism movement/ militia suddenly shows up in Crimea, and he extradites Yanukovich, those blocks will set there harmless as silly putty,  but if one Russian soldier sets foot in Crimea,  I will start making "fireworks displays" to celebrate Ukraine's new government.
 
2014-02-28 04:15:20 PM

vygramul: tinfoil-hat maggie: Well I'm sure the UK will be into going into Crimea again.

They won the last time they went.


upload.wikimedia.org

Only becuase they had Eddie.

"The Trooper"

You'll take my life but I'll take yours too
You'll fire your musket but I'll run you through
So when you're waiting for the next attack
You'd better stand there's no turning back.

The Bugle sounds and the charge begins
But on this battlefield no one wins
The smell of acrid smoke and horses breath
As I plunge on into certain death.

The horse he sweats with fear we break to run
The mighty roar of the Russian guns
And as we race towards the human wall
The screams of pain as my comrades fall.

We hurdle bodies that lay on the ground
And the Russians fire another round
We get so near yet so far away
We won't live to fight another day.

We get so close near enough to fight
When a Russian gets me in his sights
He pulls the trigger and I feel the blow
A burst of rounds take my horse below.

And as I lay there gazing at the sky
My body's numb and my throat is dry
And as I lay forgotten and alone
Without a tear I draw my parting groan.
 
2014-02-28 04:16:05 PM
So I guess the lesson is, if you want to permanently take over a territory, starve the citizens to death, replace them with your own, and then 50 years later they'll vote to join you.  A trick learned from the early days of the United States.  Well done on playing the long game, Russia.
 
2014-02-28 04:16:22 PM

patrick767: I don't think it's fair to say that most Crimeans want to be Russians. Some do. Quite a lot of them don't, even if they want the Russian language to be officially recognized.


They need to do what Canada did with Quebec.  Make Russian an official language, every 10 years or so there will be a call to secede, someone remembers to give the Russian section their pills, and things settle back down.
 
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