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(Special Broadcasting Service)   Ukraine: Hey there NATO. Say, you guys remember that wacky treaty we signed in 1994 where you promised to defend us if we were attacked in exchange for us giving up our nukes? Yeah, funny thing, never thought we actually need that, but   (sbs.com.au ) divider line
    More: Scary, NATO, Ukraine, interim leader, Viktor Yanukovych, Russian forces  
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15789 clicks; posted to Main » on 28 Feb 2014 at 1:50 PM (2 years ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2014-02-28 02:14:58 PM  

The Beatings Will Continue Until Morale Improves: Pooty-poot will visit the front lines


Must be nice to be a major world leader, and get to do that stuff for free. I usually have to pay extra if I want to ride bare-back.
 
2014-02-28 02:15:39 PM  

The Beatings Will Continue Until Morale Improves: Let's ask Georgia how that worked out.


houseofgeekery.files.wordpress.com
 
2014-02-28 02:16:01 PM  
Thanks a lot Clinton
 
2014-02-28 02:17:16 PM  
Make that the Sevastopol airport.

Reports are that a militia took the Simferopol airport.
 
2014-02-28 02:18:01 PM  

LewDux: Infernalist: This would never happen because there's simply too much at stake for Russia to lose the Crimea.  Lose that, they lose their access to their warm water ports and navy.

You know that they had access to all of that through all those 20+ years of Ukrainian independence, right?


Of course, but most of that 20 years was spent with a pro-Russian government in Russia's back pocket and I don't know if you've noticed or not, but this new Ukrainian government is pretty much 'fark the Russians and the bears they rode in on.'

I'm not saying that the Ukrainian government will revoke Russia's lease on those port facilities, but if you're Putin do you 'really' want to take the chance of losing access to your only warm water ports?
 
2014-02-28 02:18:25 PM  
If you have any friends or family in Ukraine, you should let them know now's a good time to leave.
 
2014-02-28 02:18:55 PM  

Odoriferous Queef: Voiceofreason01: There are reports that Russian tanks are rolling into Crimea, which makes this a very different situation.

[citation needed]

/I can't find anything about this on the net


You better believe it because its on the net now. Fark is on the net and thats where you found it.


/oh yea, its the internet!
 
2014-02-28 02:18:56 PM  

CleanAndPure: We should have sent troops there the moment Russia started holding invasion drills.

Russia wouldn't have invaded if we were there because they don't want war with us any more than we do with them.

This could escalate into a war because we were too pussy to stand our ground.


How long has it been since this situation really started to go beyond public protests?  A couple of weeks?  It's not the easiest (or smartest) thing to do to just send an army halfway around the world with no warning.
 
2014-02-28 02:19:00 PM  
Let me help by putting this in Europa Universalis 4 terms.  Russia still has core claims on several Ukrainian provinces that still have the Russian culture. This causes 9.5% increased local revolt risk. Although Ukraine and NATO do not have a formal alliance yet, NATO has warned Russia, which will call them to war should Russia attack any neighbors. So for the moment, Russia isn't declaring open war, but has chosen to maintain a diplomat in Ukraine to fund revolts. However that diplomat has been discovered, and although progress continues, Russia has accrued 15 Aggressive Expansion points and is dangerously close to triggering a Coalition. Meanwhile the local rebels have managed to finish siegeing the province of Crimea and are close to enforcing their separatist demands.
 
2014-02-28 02:19:06 PM  

Coconice: The scary part was seeing Biden making commentary in a link below the article.

I did not click the link to see what it said or if it was legit.

Just the threat of Biden shooting off his mouth qualifies for a [Holy shiat] tag.


It was support for the formation of the new government, not necessarily military support. Plus, Biden's greatest strength is his foreign affairs experience from his time in the Senate, so this is one of those areas where you'd expect him to step up.
 
2014-02-28 02:19:18 PM  

fireclown: What would be the downside be if the nation simply split?  The southeastern Ukranians pretty much consider themselves Russian anyway.  Is there a national resources reason, a la Iraq, that they couldn't just splinter off?  Apart from all the tradgedy of divided families and the death of the velvet revolution and all that.


Because they are the ones who moved in from Russia after Stalin "relocated" all the original inhabitants.
 
2014-02-28 02:19:30 PM  

MaudlinMutantMollusk: Well, boys, I reckon this is it - nuclear combat toe to toe with the Roosskies


As someone who grew up in the cold war, I'll be uselessly hiding under my desk.
 
2014-02-28 02:20:13 PM  

CleanAndPure: We should have sent troops there the moment Russia started holding invasion drills.

Russia wouldn't have invaded if we were there because they don't want war with us any more than we do with them.

This could escalate into a war because we were too pussy to stand our ground.


You're cute.

It's still a sovereign nation, we can't just "send in troops". And they didn't invade, they are occupying their own military bases. The US would do the same if Italy fell into chaos, especially with the nukes on those bases and whatnot.

And I'll give you a 2/10 for the 'stand your ground'.

/haven't been following too closely, so I could be 100% not right
 
2014-02-28 02:21:03 PM  

bidness: Let me help by putting this in Europa Universalis 4 terms.  Russia still has core claims on several Ukrainian provinces that still have the Russian culture. This causes 9.5% increased local revolt risk. Although Ukraine and NATO do not have a formal alliance yet, NATO has warned Russia, which will call them to war should Russia attack any neighbors. So for the moment, Russia isn't declaring open war, but has chosen to maintain a diplomat in Ukraine to fund revolts. However that diplomat has been discovered, and although progress continues, Russia has accrued 15 Aggressive Expansion points and is dangerously close to triggering a Coalition. Meanwhile the local rebels have managed to finish siegeing the province of Crimea and are close to enforcing their separatist demands.


You.  I like you.
 
2014-02-28 02:22:54 PM  
Hi Ukraine.  We've transferred the management of that treaty to Best Buy.  We'll transfer you to a rep.

BBRep: Hello?  How can I help you?
Ukraine:  We have a treaty that says you'll come to our defense.
BBRep: Hello?  How can I help you?
Ukraine:  I said we have a treaty that needs enforced.
BBRep:  You can use words like "Help" or "Agent"
Ukraine:  Help I need an agent.
BBRep:  Thank you.  Transferring...  Billing and Contracts.  How can I help you?
Ukraine:  We have a treaty with Nato for common defense...
BBRep:  Oh sorry.  I only handle billing questions.  I don't know how you got this number.  I'll transfer you to Treaty Fullfillment.  One moment please.  No.  That's not the right one.  Glenda.  What number is treat full fill?  I got another moron that can't dial a .... Oh (Click)
BBRep:  Treat Full Fillment.  this is Dave.  How can I help  you?
Ukraine:  Finally!  I have a treaty with NATO to provide common defense.  We've got Russians on our border.  I need help now!
BBRep:  Yes, sir.  We'll have a carrier group sent right away.  I just need your Treaty Verification Number.  It's on your treaty.
Ukraine:  I have a Treaty Number and a Verification Number.  Which one do you want?
BBRep:  I need the Treaty Verification Number.  It's a 16 digit number.  Should be on your treaty.
Ukraine:  Can it start with a "T"?  I have one of those.
BBRep:  No.  That's a Treaty Authorization Code.  It should be a sixteen digit number. All numbers.
Ukraine:  I don't see that.
BBRep:  Well, I'll start processing the request to NATO anyways.  But we'll need that number.  I'll give you a 1-800 number that you can call when you find that number.  Would you be interested in an upgrade to your current treaty, Ukraine?
Ukraine:  Nyet!
BBRep:  No problem, Ukraine.  Is there anything else I can do for you today?
Ukraine:  Nyet.
BBRep:  Are you ready for that 1800 number Ukraine?
Ukraine:  Nyet.
BBRep:  Well, when  you are, you can call me back at any time.  Our desk services are from 11 AM to 1130 AM Central Swazitime and 3420 to 4260 Universal Metric Time.  Can I help you with anything else?
Ukraine:  Da!  Does Poland have same treaty vit NATO?  Just asking, da?
 
2014-02-28 02:23:13 PM  
Tomahawk513:  (Switzerland is a paragon of neutrality).

They will take anyone's nazi gold and stolen renaissance art.
 
2014-02-28 02:23:46 PM  

Voiceofreason01: fireclown: Odoriferous Queef: Voiceofreason01: There are reports that Russian tanks are rolling into Crimea, which makes this a very different situation.

[citation needed]

/I can't find anything about this on the net

I agree.  That kind of statement at least warrants a link.

eh, I may have jumped the gun. It looks like it's just the one Washington Post article and the Russians are saying they're just moving forces in to secure their naval base.


No problem.  Thanks for double checking.  I TOTALLY believe they're shoring up their bases, They'd be nuts not to.
 
2014-02-28 02:23:58 PM  

Tomahawk513: PsiChick: Hey, Putin. Maybe we need to stand down now?

/I have very little sympathy for the aggressor, and promising to defend them means we need to act on that promise.
//Hopefully there's a way to solve this behind the scenes before war starts, but now we actually  need to intervene, and this phrase will never again be uttered by myself in this context.

It'd be really cool if, in the event of civil war, the UN could come in and stabilize the situation.  Then, a Swiss elections team could come in, administer a democratic election for a temporary government, and then everyone packs up and goes home.  No disputing the results (democracy, and all that).  No accusations of bias (Switzerland is a paragon of neutrality).  And very little bloodshed.


as someone who has four great grandparents who were born in Ukraine, that would be fantastic.  Odds of Russia letting that happen? divide by zero. :(
 
2014-02-28 02:26:06 PM  

ShadowKamui: fireclown: What would be the downside be if the nation simply split?  The southeastern Ukranians pretty much consider themselves Russian anyway.  Is there a national resources reason, a la Iraq, that they couldn't just splinter off?  Apart from all the tradgedy of divided families and the death of the velvet revolution and all that.

Because they are the ones who moved in from Russia after Stalin "relocated" all the original inhabitants.


Ah.  The ol' East Jereusalem gambit.  Looks like it worked, because for whatever (absolutely reprehensible) reasons, the southeast is Russian.

/God I hate that corner of the world.
 
2014-02-28 02:29:49 PM  
pact or no pact I would rank this request up high on the UMM HOW BOUT DEFINITELY NO List.

The odds of US or NATO troops/assets engaging in a DIRECT confrontation with Russian troops is almost nil.
 
2014-02-28 02:29:51 PM  

fireclown: Odoriferous Queef: Voiceofreason01: There are reports that Russian tanks are rolling into Crimea, which makes this a very different situation.

[citation needed]

/I can't find anything about this on the net

I agree.  That kind of statement at least warrants a link.



http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2014/feb/28/russia-invades-crime a- sends-armored-personnel-carr/
 
2014-02-28 02:30:39 PM  

Magorn: netizencain: DamnYankees: Seems like it'd be pretty easy for us to sit this out on the basis that this is basically a civil war.

Civil war until the Russians cross the border

which they did yesterday in military helicopters

and the "People mIlitia of Crimea" the so called "ordinary people" who seized Crimea's Airports yesterday?

they all just happened to be dressed exactly alike in the latest Russian Military-issued full battle kit:
[cdn.theatlantic.com image 675x474]


Sorry boys - those faces give it away - only soldiers are that uniform in the LACK of facial hair.
 
2014-02-28 02:30:41 PM  

Publikwerks: [i.imgur.com image 800x495]


i met barry corbin, wonderful guy.
 
2014-02-28 02:30:46 PM  
Interesting. I feel pretty damn strong about your word being your bond, and your word being all you really have.

I want to see Ukraine free and safe from Russia. I know much, much more is ultimately at stake.

I don't have a problem with this.
 
2014-02-28 02:31:09 PM  

Loris: MaudlinMutantMollusk: Well, boys, I reckon this is it - nuclear combat toe to toe with the Roosskies

As someone who grew up in the cold war, I'll be uselessly hiding under my desk.


Move over

/I learned to duck and cover, too
 
2014-02-28 02:31:13 PM  

LewDux: Infernalist: This would never happen because there's simply too much at stake for Russia to lose the Crimea.  Lose that, they lose their access to their warm water ports and navy.

You know that they had access to all of that through all those 20+ years of Ukrainian independence, right?


Not to mention that Khrushchev `gifted' the Crimea to Ukraine in 1954.

Tatars are pi*sed, but this is just as internecine BS as West allows it to be (and Europe loves that Russian Gas).
 
2014-02-28 02:32:05 PM  
I say NATO should go in and wipe out those gunmen... Putin would lose face with his military, the Russians lose a ton of Spetznaz on a "disavowed" mission, and the Russian loyalists in the region suddenly get a lot meeker (and regional stability goes up).

Putin's attempt only works if the west backs down from its promises... and if it succeeds, its bad news for the rest of Eastern Europe.
 
2014-02-28 02:32:36 PM  

unlikely: Wow, that's kind of a pickle. On the one hand, no WAY we'll get involved in that. On the other hand, that's it for credibility in treaties...


americangallery.files.wordpress.com

Uhhh....
 
2014-02-28 02:32:48 PM  
Fire up the drones.
 
2014-02-28 02:33:10 PM  

Kuta: It sounds to me like Russia is helping out the Ukraine by stopping a civil war.

They're just not helping out like the West wants them to help.


do yuu mean "The West" or the western half of Ukrania? There's a difference.
 
2014-02-28 02:33:19 PM  

beefoe: We'll at least Harold Ramis can save them!

[www.morethings.com image 308x465]


well not any more, which is what the ruskies were waiting for.
 
2014-02-28 02:35:13 PM  

CygnusDarius: Might as well play this in the streets.

/This game nearly killed my chances to go to college


Hell march time!
 
2014-02-28 02:35:24 PM  
Make no mistake about it, no one in the West wants to get involved in this mess.  It's Russia's backyard, after all.  That said, the Ukrainians are screaming blood murder about the whole mess and we don't live in an age of 'official information' anymore where the US can tell its networks that everything over there is fine.

Publicly, we'll tell the Russians to play nice.  Privately, deal-making will be made with an eye upon maintaining Ukrainian independence while allowing the Russians to have their warm water ports.
 
2014-02-28 02:35:26 PM  

Andy Andy: Magorn: netizencain: DamnYankees: Seems like it'd be pretty easy for us to sit this out on the basis that this is basically a civil war.

Civil war until the Russians cross the border

which they did yesterday in military helicopters

and the "People mIlitia of Crimea" the so called "ordinary people" who seized Crimea's Airports yesterday?

they all just happened to be dressed exactly alike in the latest Russian Military-issued full battle kit:
[cdn.theatlantic.com image 675x474]

Plus, Honda apparently sent at least one of their soldiers which is pretty unnerving.


He's just there to slap the shiat out of anyone who steps out of line.

/He's lost a lot of weight since last time I saw him.
 
2014-02-28 02:35:48 PM  
Who cares?  They have no nukes and 20 year old peace of paper.  We have nukes and the world's best military.
 
2014-02-28 02:35:58 PM  

bidness: Let me help by putting this in Europa Universalis 4 terms.  Russia still has core claims on several Ukrainian provinces that still have the Russian culture. This causes 9.5% increased local revolt risk. Although Ukraine and NATO do not have a formal alliance yet, NATO has warned Russia, which will call them to war should Russia attack any neighbors. So for the moment, Russia isn't declaring open war, but has chosen to maintain a diplomat in Ukraine to fund revolts. However that diplomat has been discovered, and although progress continues, Russia has accrued 15 Aggressive Expansion points and is dangerously close to triggering a Coalition. Meanwhile the local rebels have managed to finish siegeing the province of Crimea and are close to enforcing their separatist demands.


And like the sun suddenly emerging from behind clouds, I see everything clearly now.
 
2014-02-28 02:36:03 PM  
So... how long till we restart the cold war?  Or maybe skip that and go straight to surface of the sun war.
 
2014-02-28 02:36:04 PM  

lindalouwho: Interesting. I feel pretty damn strong about your word being your bond, and your word being all you really have.

I want to see Ukraine free and safe from Russia. I know much, much more is ultimately at stake.

I don't have a problem with this.


It's a lot more than just keeping our word.  If NATO abrogates a treaty guaranteeing Ukrainian sovereignty, there are a lot of countries in that area who will start having second thoughts about their diplomatic alignment. NATO has to do something or it's the same as letting the Germans occupy the Rhineland.
 
2014-02-28 02:37:27 PM  

Crazy Lee: LewDux: Infernalist: This would never happen because there's simply too much at stake for Russia to lose the Crimea.  Lose that, they lose their access to their warm water ports and navy.

You know that they had access to all of that through all those 20+ years of Ukrainian independence, right?

Not to mention that Khrushchev `gifted' the Crimea to Ukraine in 1954.

Tatars are pi*sed, but this is just as internecine BS as West allows it to be (and Europe loves that Russian Gas).


He gifted it to them because Crimea has 0 drinkable water w/o access to Ukraine.  Its about as dumb as Vegas trying to split from Nevada w/o Lake Mead
 
2014-02-28 02:37:37 PM  

LewDux: The Beatings Will Continue Until Morale Improves: Let's ask Georgia how that worked out.

Georgia had nukes?


Yes and no. They had nuclear reactors and research facilities, not weapons the way Ukraine did.
 
2014-02-28 02:38:01 PM  
Well subs, the article says that the treaty was signed by the US, the UK and Russia.
Maybe we're only allowed to defend them against countries that didn't sign the treaty?
 
2014-02-28 02:38:26 PM  

PreMortem: It's still a sovereign nation, we can't just "send in troops". And they didn't invade, they are occupying their own military bases. The US would do the same if Italy fell into chaos, especially with the nukes on those bases and whatnot.



The Russian "Militia" (who are wearing identical sets of kit which Russia started issuing to its regulars 2-3 years ago) are occupying the civilian (non-military and fully Ukrainian) airports in the Simferopol and Sevastopol areas.  Military forces crossing borders to occupy foreign territory is the classic definition of an invasion.

Plus back in Kosovo circa 1999 Russian troops pulled something similar (seizing the main airport) in order to allow them to quickly fly in reinforcements (a full Brigade IIRC).
 
2014-02-28 02:38:32 PM  

LesserEvil: I say NATO should go in and wipe out those gunmen... Putin would lose face with his military, the Russians lose a ton of Spetznaz on a "disavowed" mission, and the Russian loyalists in the region suddenly get a lot meeker (and regional stability goes up).


Wait a second. You mean foreign troops, which were most explicitly NOT invited by local population, should invade the foreign country without a declaration of war and wipe out local civilian population (doesn't matter if they are or aren't; they would be local civilian population by the time you have finished executing them)?

And you feel it's a proper behavior?

And you think _Russians_ are evil?
 
2014-02-28 02:38:39 PM  

Voiceofreason01: DamnYankees: Seems like it'd be pretty easy for us to sit this out on the basis that this is basically a civil war.

There are reports that Russian tanks are rolling into Crimea, which makes this a very different situation.


And somebody shut down all of our A-10s because we were never going to need tankbusters again.
 
2014-02-28 02:38:51 PM  

Born_Again_Bavarian: http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2014/feb/28/russia-invades-crime a- sends-armored-personnel-carr/


It's the Washington Times. They're not a legitimate source for anything. From all the other sources out there (starting with BBC) it looks like there may be a few armored personnel carriers on the roads to and from the naval base, but nothing that warrants a "they're sending in the tanks" kind of headline.

//Putin's not stupid. He's not going to send the whole damn army rolling into Ukraine. Just gradually take control of the region step by step such that there's no one particularly overt act that the west can use to justify force.
 
2014-02-28 02:39:46 PM  

LesserEvil: I say NATO should go in and wipe out those gunmen... Putin would lose face with his military, the Russians lose a ton of Spetznaz on a "disavowed" mission, and the Russian loyalists in the region suddenly get a lot meeker (and regional stability goes up).

Putin's attempt only works if the west backs down from its promises... and if it succeeds, its bad news for the rest of Eastern Europe.


I'm glad you're not POTUS then because I believe that is EXACTLY what Putin wants. He's laying a bear trap for the Ukranians and foreign/NATO intervention into Ukraine will mostly likely play into his hands. It means he will get back Crimea. All he needs is a single NATO troops or a single tire track of NATO vehhicle on Ukranian soil and you just gave him a bunch of leverage to exercise his plan.
 
2014-02-28 02:40:20 PM  

hawcian: Coconice: The scary part was seeing Biden making commentary in a link below the article.

I did not click the link to see what it said or if it was legit.

Just the threat of Biden shooting off his mouth qualifies for a [Holy shiat] tag.

It was support for the formation of the new government, not necessarily military support. Plus, Biden's greatest strength is his foreign affairs experience from his time in the Senate, so this is one of those areas where you'd expect him to step up.


I think the Urainians already have all of the shot guns they need.
 
2014-02-28 02:40:59 PM  

PreMortem: CleanAndPure: We should have sent troops there the moment Russia started holding invasion drills.

Russia wouldn't have invaded if we were there because they don't want war with us any more than we do with them.

This could escalate into a war because we were too pussy to stand our ground.

You're cute.

It's still a sovereign nation, we can't just "send in troops". And they didn't invade, they are occupying their own military bases. The US would do the same if Italy fell into chaos, especially with the nukes on those bases and whatnot.

And I'll give you a 2/10 for the 'stand your ground'.


/haven't been following too closely, so I could be 100% not right


Sorry let me help you with that.
 
2014-02-28 02:41:42 PM  

fireclown: What would be the downside be if the nation simply split?  The southeastern Ukranians pretty much consider themselves Russian anyway.  Is there a national resources reason, a la Iraq, that they couldn't just splinter off?  Apart from all the tradgedy of divided families and the death of the velvet revolution and all that.


Take a look at this map of Ukraine
www.lib.utexas.edu
You see that peninsula at the bottom?  That's Crimea.  If it breaks away from Ukraine, it will, de acto or de jure become part of Russia.   If that happens Russia gets a bottleneck that effectively allow it to control access to the Black Sea for nearly Half of Ukraine land mass and many of its major cities.   It would make Ukraine itself a satellite of Russia just as surely as if it still had an SSR after its name
 
2014-02-28 02:41:44 PM  

jaybeezey: Kuta: It sounds to me like Russia is helping out the Ukraine by stopping a civil war.

They're just not helping out like the West wants them to help.

do yuu mean "The West" or the western half of Ukrania? There's a difference.


The article said that Ukraine has a treaty with the US, UK and Russia.

Russia is "helping" out. Is that sufficient for the terms of the treaty? Yeah, sucks to be in Kiev right now, but the UK and US will probably not do anything militarily--Russia already is.

So, eastern Ukraine will join the already autonomous Crimea in a separate state. Russia will get what it wants. Kiev will get what it wants. If Russia marches on Kiev, there could be serious trouble, but I hope they don't go there.
 
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