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(The Pig Site)   El Nino is back, rested and ready to party in the United States this summer   (thepigsite.com) divider line 42
    More: Interesting, El Nino, United States, Australia, Creighton University, ocean temperature, Atlantic hurricane, Tennessee Valley, winter solstices  
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2810 clicks; posted to Geek » on 27 Feb 2014 at 12:52 PM (21 weeks ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



42 Comments   (+0 »)
   
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2014-02-27 12:58:02 PM
Where I live, they're calling for, essentially, normal conditions this summer.  So, what'll it be, scorching drought or cold wet summer?
 
2014-02-27 12:58:24 PM
So El Nino is normal, not normal nowadays?
 
2014-02-27 01:00:36 PM
 
2014-02-27 01:02:38 PM
In the drought-stricken West, precipitation is expected to slowly increase to normal levels by mid-February and reach above-normal levels in March, After a warm mid-winter, temperatures in the West will drop to below-normal levels March through May.

Fine...rain all you want through May. The West can use every drop you can throw at us.

/got 1.25" over the past 24 hours
//moar rain please!
///slashies for raindrops
 
2014-02-27 01:05:43 PM
www.thepigsite.com

I guess it would be too much trouble to get quality pictures or images of these maps for the blogger.
 
2014-02-27 01:05:44 PM
I dont care I jsut want to open my windows and walk barefoot in my backyard and feel the sun on my face.
 
2014-02-27 01:06:51 PM
Ordinarily El Ninos, La Ninas, and neutral years split pretty evenly among themselves. Over the last 15, La Nina and neutrals have predominated.  El Nino years occur when the Pacific Ocean doesn't efficiently take up atmospheric heat. For example,1998 was an ungodly El Nino year. I believe 2005 was as well. Get ready to bake.
 
2014-02-27 01:13:30 PM
Seems to be one of the go to guys for climate change deniers.
 
2014-02-27 01:21:42 PM
El Nino is so '90s.  We blame everything on global warming now.
 
2014-02-27 01:23:22 PM

tailormadebassist: THE NINO!


Thank God! I really missed that guy!

img231.imageshack.us
 
2014-02-27 01:25:31 PM
Is it still Spanish for The Nino?
 
2014-02-27 01:37:05 PM
It will be interesting to see if one actually does materialize. There's a huge forecasting barrier for ENSO until after the spring, so anything this far out should be taken with a huge grain of salt. I have heard some very convincing arguments as to why we could see an El Niño based on what the ocean is doing now, but so far this is basically plausible storytelling rather than based on a repeatable, physics-based justification.  Not to mention, there is a non-trivial possibility that the forced response of the Tropical Pacific could be towards a more persistently La Niña-like state, like during the Medieval Climate Anomaly.

On the other side of the spectrum, you've got the possibility of the El Padre conditions of the Pliocene.

This is one of the big unknowns in climate right now. Not whether GHGs will warm the planet on average over the long term.
 
2014-02-27 01:40:52 PM
FTFA:

"These are long term trends. The Arctic has stabilised over the last 10 years and the Antarctica is actually increasing it's amount of ice. The problem is that increasing carbon dioxide amounts could not allow you to have this graph. So I don't think we need to worry about global warming as being a fact," Dr Douglas said.


So, basically, this guy is saying that global warming is not happening?
 
2014-02-27 01:49:21 PM
FTFA:

"These are long term trends. The Arctic has stabilised over the last 10 years and the Antarctica is actually increasing it's amount of ice. The problem is that increasing carbon dioxide amounts could not allow you to have this graph. So I don't think we need to worry about global warming as being a fact," Dr Douglas said.


So, basically, this guy is saying that global warming is not happening?



What's happening is very poor and tortured english. He means to say that global warming IS a fact, and we don't have to worry about that fact being shown to be false. He speaks badly in public.


Of course, it's a whole n'other issue as to how much is being caused by humans and what we can actually do about it.

/stop whining and BUILD FRIGGIN' Nukes already....jeez...
 
2014-02-27 02:17:23 PM

mark12A: FTFA:

"These are long term trends. The Arctic has stabilised over the last 10 years and the Antarctica is actually increasing it's amount of ice. The problem is that increasing carbon dioxide amounts could not allow you to have this graph. So I don't think we need to worry about global warming as being a fact," Dr Douglas said.


So, basically, this guy is saying that global warming is not happening?


What's happening is very poor and tortured english. He means to say that global warming IS a fact, and we don't have to worry about that fact being shown to be false. He speaks badly in public.


Of course, it's a whole n'other issue as to how much is being caused by humans and what we can actually do about it.

/stop whining and BUILD FRIGGIN' Nukes already....jeez...


Actually the good doctors schtick is that global warming is a myth.  I believe he is one of the small percentage of climate scientists that the deniers keep trotting out.
 
2014-02-27 02:23:07 PM

exboyracer: Seems to be one of the go to guys for climate change deniers.


No. I'm not a denier.(I'm a despairer.) El Nino is just part of the world. Like a mountain.
 
2014-02-27 02:24:05 PM

whosits_112: tailormadebassist: THE NINO!

Thank God! I really missed that guy!

[img231.imageshack.us image 309x236]


I cannot read bout El Nino (don't know how to do the squiggly) without thinking of Chris Farley.
 
2014-02-27 02:26:58 PM

A Leaf in Fall: FTFA:

"These are long term trends. The Arctic has stabilised over the last 10 years and the Antarctica is actually increasing it's amount of ice. The problem is that increasing carbon dioxide amounts could not allow you to have this graph. So I don't think we need to worry about global warming as being a fact," Dr Douglas said.

So, basically, this guy is saying that global warming is not happening?


Yes. And he's completely full of shiat. Arctic sea ice decline is ongoing, and is declining more rapidly than model projections. Antarctic sea ice is above mean model projections but within the range expected by natural variability superimposed on GHG-driven warming.

mark12A: Of course, it's a whole n'other issue as to how much is being caused by humans and what we can actually do about it.


If by "other issue" you mean "still debatable", that's bullshiat.

mark12A: /stop whining and BUILD FRIGGIN' Nukes already....jeez...


I'm a supporter of building nukes as an "all of the above" response to the challenge of decarbonizing the global economy, but they are by no means a silver bullet, and the barriers to their construction have to do as much with 1) terrorism/security concerns about sites and waste storage/transport and 2) upfront plus decommissioning costs as anything else.

IOW terrorism hawks and free market fundamentalists as much as nimbys.
 
2014-02-27 02:27:21 PM

A Leaf in Fall: FTFA:

"These are long term trends. The Arctic has stabilised over the last 10 years and the Antarctica is actually increasing it's amount of ice. The problem is that increasing carbon dioxide amounts could not allow you to have this graph. So I don't think we need to worry about global warming as being a fact," Dr Douglas said.


So, basically, this guy is saying that global warming is not happening?



Insane. Stabilized? Arctic ice has fallen off a farking cliff. Particularly since 2007. Antarctica itself is losing ice mass. The ice around the Antarctic continent is quite different than the open water ice of the Arctic and is dependent upon different factors.
 
2014-02-27 02:27:41 PM

tailormadebassist: El Nino (don't know how to do the squiggly)


Alt+164

El Niño.
 
2014-02-27 02:42:30 PM
¿¡¿¿¡¡¡
 
2014-02-27 02:44:43 PM
uh, subby, El Nino is a WINTER weather pattern, they're predicting heavy rain for NEXT winter in dry Califorina
 
2014-02-27 02:45:58 PM

Jon Snow: tailormadebassist: El Nino (don't know how to do the squiggly)

Alt+164

El Niño.


El Niño.

Well, that was fun! Thanks! ☺
 
2014-02-27 02:57:23 PM

Jon Snow: tailormadebassist: El Nino (don't know how to do the squiggly)

Alt+164

El Niño.


Or for our mac friends, option+n and then a letter that can be used with it:  ñ Ñ ã Ã õ Õ
 
2014-02-27 03:00:20 PM

yakmans_dad: Insane. Stabilized? Arctic ice has fallen off a farking cliff. Particularly since 2007.


Has Arctic ice gotten low? Yes. Fallen off a cliff? Hardly.

arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu

The NSIDC says it's gotten much thicker over the last 4 years

nsidc.org
 
2014-02-27 03:05:07 PM

DesertDemonWY: yakmans_dad: Insane. Stabilized? Arctic ice has fallen off a farking cliff. Particularly since 2007.

Has Arctic ice gotten low? Yes. Fallen off a cliff? Hardly.

[arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu image 850x690]

The NSIDC says it's gotten much thicker over the last 4 years

[nsidc.org image 850x1100]


"Oh, look. Winter."

The important part of that graph are the bottom numbers. That's summer melt.
 
2014-02-27 03:16:57 PM

exboyracer: mark12A: FTFA:

"These are long term trends. The Arctic has stabilised over the last 10 years and the Antarctica is actually increasing it's amount of ice. The problem is that increasing carbon dioxide amounts could not allow you to have this graph. So I don't think we need to worry about global warming as being a fact," Dr Douglas said.


So, basically, this guy is saying that global warming is not happening?


What's happening is very poor and tortured english. He means to say that global warming IS a fact, and we don't have to worry about that fact being shown to be false. He speaks badly in public.


Of course, it's a whole n'other issue as to how much is being caused by humans and what we can actually do about it.

/stop whining and BUILD FRIGGIN' Nukes already....jeez...

Actually the good doctors schtick is that global warming is a myth.  I believe he is one of the small percentage of climate scientists that the deniers keep trotting out.


I believe he doesn't believe in catastrophic warming. You can know how climate science works without believing the models are yet accurate. The problem is liberals equate the modeling with the science. They are not equal at all. The models are based on the science but utilize a wide swath of assumptions not yet proven out.
 
2014-02-27 03:19:31 PM

yakmans_dad: Ordinarily El Ninos, La Ninas, and neutral years split pretty evenly among themselves. Over the last 15, La Nina and neutrals have predominated.  El Nino years occur when the Pacific Ocean doesn't efficiently take up atmospheric heat. For example,1998 was an ungodly El Nino year. I believe 2005 was as well. Get ready to bake.


Bake? Nah.  Means lots of rain!
 
2014-02-27 03:21:46 PM

DesertDemonWY: Has Arctic ice gotten low? Yes. Fallen off a cliff? Hardly.


You do know we have data predating 19790, don't you?

i.imgur.com

i.imgur.com

Arctic sea ice decline is unmatched by anything in the observational record and in the paleoclimatic record for thousands of years.
 
2014-02-27 03:35:19 PM

MyRandomName: You can know how climate science works without believing the models are yet accurate.


He is making a claim about the climate system that is demonstrably false (the cryosphere behavior is incompatible with mainstream understanding of the climate system).

The problem is liberals equate the modeling with the science. They are not equal at all. The models are based on the science but utilize a wide swath of assumptions not yet proven out.

"Proven" is a strawman. No one is claiming "proven". And models are, by there very definition imperfect, or to be more blunt, as George Box famously put it, "All models are wrong." But more importantly. "Some are useful."

None of that has any bearing on the point that an understanding of the climate system sufficient to say "humans are creating an energy imbalance through our emission of GHGs that will result in a warming to a higher equilibrium state, with concomitant climatic changes" need not at all be based on models but is both supported by and improved upon by using models.

And also:

The problem is liberals blah blah

Way to make this a partisan issue, champ.
 
2014-02-27 03:54:02 PM

bhcompy: yakmans_dad: Ordinarily El Ninos, La Ninas, and neutral years split pretty evenly among themselves. Over the last 15, La Nina and neutrals have predominated.  El Nino years occur when the Pacific Ocean doesn't efficiently take up atmospheric heat. For example,1998 was an ungodly El Nino year. I believe 2005 was as well. Get ready to bake.

Bake? Nah.  Means lots of rain!


Local conditions may vary. 1998 and 2005 were El Nino years. They set new records for highest average global temps.
 
2014-02-27 03:55:56 PM

Jon Snow: DesertDemonWY: Has Arctic ice gotten low? Yes. Fallen off a cliff? Hardly.

You do know we have data predating 19790, don't you?

[i.imgur.com image 450x306]

[i.imgur.com image 600x450]

Arctic sea ice decline is unmatched by anything in the observational record and in the paleoclimatic record for thousands of years.


This is why these people just aren't mistaken: they''re wicked. You can't cherry pick at this scale and on these issues and not just be completely indifferent to other people.
 
2014-02-27 04:12:02 PM
Is it bad that I tried to make the headline match the rhythm to that horrible Vanilla Ice song?
 
2014-02-27 04:19:01 PM
The question is, if El Nino does prevail with healthy rain amounts, will it be enough to reverse, or at least halt, the exceptional southwest US drought. I live in Texas and play in New Mexico so this matters much to me.
 
2014-02-27 04:49:56 PM

Jon Snow: tailormadebassist: El Nino (don't know how to do the squiggly)

Alt+164

El Niño.


I have to admit, I never learned how to do that either. Anytime I needed an umlaut or something I'd copy/paste it from somewhere else. But now, the world is my é╣Ñü╕!

/still learning
 
2014-02-27 04:53:56 PM

Mentalpatient87: But now, the world is my é╣Ñü╕!

/still learning


The only ones I know how to do off the top of my head are the "ñ" and the degree symbol "°", for obvious reasons. Can't do them on my laptop for some reason however.
 
2014-02-27 04:54:55 PM
DesertDemonWY:

Out of curiosity, why do you post so often in climate threads? Not a loaded question- I'm generally curious.
 
2014-02-27 05:02:37 PM
Maybe they'll get ill Nino to be the warm up act.
 
2014-02-27 05:43:45 PM
I was really expecting this article to be about the upcoming hurricane season. I am quite eager to see predictions, preliminary as they may be.
 
2014-02-27 05:45:22 PM
Good, California needs more rain.  Sorry for the rest of you guys, but you've had it good for too many years now.
 
2014-02-27 06:04:28 PM

MyRandomName: exboyracer: mark12A: FTFA:

"These are long term trends. The Arctic has stabilised over the last 10 years and the Antarctica is actually increasing it's amount of ice. The problem is that increasing carbon dioxide amounts could not allow you to have this graph. So I don't think we need to worry about global warming as being a fact," Dr Douglas said.


So, basically, this guy is saying that global warming is not happening?


What's happening is very poor and tortured english. He means to say that global warming IS a fact, and we don't have to worry about that fact being shown to be false. He speaks badly in public.


Of course, it's a whole n'other issue as to how much is being caused by humans and what we can actually do about it.

/stop whining and BUILD FRIGGIN' Nukes already....jeez...

Actually the good doctors schtick is that global warming is a myth.  I believe he is one of the small percentage of climate scientists that the deniers keep trotting out.

I believe he doesn't believe in catastrophic warming. You can know how climate science works without believing the models are yet accurate. The problem is liberals equate the modeling with the science. They are not equal at all. The models are based on the science but utilize a wide swath of assumptions not yet proven out.


But the more data and the more modeling the better the models get.- the inevitable thing appears to be that as the modeling is for the most part trending towards warming.  Didn't they just start factoring in ocean temps?  Oceans are a big part of the system.
 
2014-02-27 07:28:02 PM
this is odd, El Nino is a winter(in the northern hemisphere) event but it might happen. Here's an e-mail I got from my boss recently:

1) The longer there has not been an El Ni~no, the easier it is to forecast one.
2) The likelihood of a strong El Ni~no depends on the background decadal state of the Pacific (El Viejo or La Vieja, the current state where the eastern Pacific is cool on decadal time scales - responsible for our drought).

Kidding aside, there appears to be a significant downwelling Kelvin wave crossing the Pacific at this time. These waves propagate about 200 km per day, deepen the thermocline and eventually warm the eastern Pacific. It will soon reach the South American coast and propagate poleward. If it get's through the Gulf of California it should reach Monterey in early April. These waves are not unusual but the magnitude of this one bears watching as is the next one that is being generated by a new batch of westerly anomalies in the western Pacific. This new batch has penetrated further into the Pacific, something that is characteristic during El Ni~no events; the next batch could penetrate even further reinforcing warming in the eastern Pacific. If this develops into an El Ni~no the timing would be unusual since they are normally initiated towards the end of the year (El Ni~no, named after the Christ child). Not sure if this will turn into nothing, a little one or a large one.
 
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